Policy making needs to take place with the knowledge that that disruptive events will happen and will be unexpected, even with the best horizon scanning system in place.
and Knowledge, Volume 1: Human Science for a New Era, Transaction Publishers, Piscataway, NJ. Bhimji, W. 2009), Guidance on the Use of Strategic foresight Analysis for Policy development in Government, UK Government office for Science, London, available at:
the variety of opinions in society as well as the best possible knowledge of what is technologically feasible, economically affordable and socially acceptable.
some export of these goods (and jobs in these industries) still exist Strong agriculture-and forest industry with many innovative high-value products (not just grain and paper) Both knowledge-and resource as well as energy
knowledge intensive services highly concentrated in the south of the country. Middle-and northern parts of the country live from agriculture,
unpredictable and no actor has clear knowledge what the technology will bring. Research institutes study a broad variety of scientific subjects
These reasons explain to some extent the scant attention paid by urban planners in the last few decades to the revision and reinvention of futures studies as a field of practical knowledge.
experiences and specific knowledge. Territorial foresight offers noteworthy tangible benefits. First, it systematises the debate about future prospects for socioeconomic development amongst a wide variety of agents by building up plausible and coherent future visions.
and disseminate knowledge deriving from the foresight exercises amongst stakeholders and political decision-makers. In spite of the above-mentioned advantages, territorial foresight has clear limitations.
Finally, the European foresight Platform, another European commission funded body, has made an intense effort to compile several regional foresight exercises within its Knowledge sharing Platform (European foresight Platform, 2011.
innovative research efforts geared to bridging the gap between these two fields of knowledge. 4. How to reconcile territorial foresight and urban planning Despite its apparent benefits,
and contrast instruments with parsimony in a little-explored field of knowledge. 6. Main findings
Fourth, this exercise elicits the potential for using foresight as a powerful tool for the dissemination of territorial knowledge and the establishment of expert networks,
European foresight Platform (2011),‘Foresight brief‘Knowledge sharing Platform'''available at: www. foresightplatform. eu (accessed 14 july 2011.
Regarding the application of fta to other fields of knowledge and inquiry, Cagnin and Keenan (2008) have called attention to the need for a wider examination of FTA TOOLS and approaches.
Futurict will basically act as a Knowledge Accelerator, speeding the present towards the future by providing knowledge about tomorrow through data about today.
It is sophisticated, in short, a modelling system with the ambitious plan of turning massive amounts of data into knowledge and technological progress.
The project proposes using real time data (financial transactions, health records, logistics data, carbon dioxide emissions, or knowledge databases such as Wikipedia) to construct a model of society capable of simulating what the future holds for us.
For this purpose Futurict will build a sophisticated simulation, visualisation and participation platform, called the Living Earth Platform,
for instance, knowledge based systems and intelligent information retrieval. With the development of modelling techniques and instruments such as the one described above,
but has moved increasingly towards providing knowledge suitable for actively shaping technology'',in Rader and Porter (2008).
Helbing, D. 2011), The Futurict knowledge accelerator to explore and manage our future, available at:
It produces knowledge, orientation and procedures to deal with societal challenges in coping with technology. Over the last years, the landscape for Technology assessment has changed significantly.
or contract awarders require valid, scientifically sound, knowledge-based, often quantitative, information on future developments of technology and its interaction with society before they are implemented widely,
The principle of taking into account the knowledge about presumed or probable technology impacts in decisions already at an early stage is part of the basic concept of technology assessment.
Although there are many knowledge gaps and uncertainties e g. about the up-scaling of the current processes used for material production
In this situation, is it possible to find ways to consider knowledge about the potential impacts of a technology which admittedly is gained with high uncertainty and its assessment with regard to sustainability already in early phases of technology development?
To our knowledge, the term dscience roadmapt has been proposed first by Robert Galvin in a 1998 article in Science 9. Kostoff and Schaller without any explicit justification dreinteggrated both types.
Q 6 The probably most comprehensive overview of relevant research on and current knowledge about roadmapping, together with a critical discussion of the potential of roadmapping approaches which are applied usually to sustaining technologies to offer insights into disruptive technologies,
and should include not only the perspectives and knowledge of the developers and proponents of a technology,
Other assumed benefits for the TA practitioner are the identification of gaps of knowledge, qualified estimates about technological hurdles and the degree of difficulty to overcome them and related time horizons,
The communicative part of the process supports thinking about the unknown future, provides knowledge for more informed decisions
nanomaterials experts and knowledge transfer organisations will build branch specific roadmaps for three different industrial sectors on
at building a knowledge base for further detailed investigations about the potential of nanomaterials, especially with regard to sustainable development,
Some fear to disclose too much sensitive knowledge to potential competitors, others think that the application of planning tools to topics of basic research might confine creativity
FTA then becomes an imaginative projection of the current knowledge in which formal methods and techniques play a subsidiary role following Wittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'.
The argument of Loveridge and Saritas that FTA is an imaginative projection of current knowledge is explored further by Van Lente
and contextual attributes that affect the prospects for effective applications, drawing on the practical combination of empirical and expert knowledge.
the levels of certainty and rationality could be increased by better evidence and knowledge, and progress can be measured against an ideal of perfect knowledge.
At least since the 1970s it has been understood well that even when the world unfolds in a completely deterministic fashion under well-known natural laws,
Epistemic uncertainty, according to these authors, is uncertainty due to the imperfection of our knowledge, which can be reduced by more research.
This knowledge cannot be found from the animal itself. The appropriate way to categorise the object of study depends on the role it plays in the current social practices.
and this requires stocks of knowledge and systems of meaning that are located in communities of users and social practice.
Constant 1987) and with specialised systems of knowledge and meaning (Polanyi 1998; Knorr Cetina 1999.
because it inherently neglects innovation and knowledge creation. When innovation is important, foresight efforts therefore could more appropriately be located around the problem of articulating natural systems,
Foresight efforts can probably best be organised using reflective learning and knowledge creation as their theoretical framework. If innovation is importaant we probably should give relatively little weight for trend extrapolations,
He has a Phd in adult education (knowledge management) and MSC in theoretical physics, both from University of Helsinki.
His research has focused on knowledge creation, innovation theory, and open source. References Beck, U.,A. Giddens, and S. Lash. 1994.
How the sciences make knowledge. Cambridge, MA: Harvard university Press. Lane, D, . and R. Maxfield. 2004.
Economics, science, and knowledge: Polanyi vs. Hayek. Tradition & Discovery, The Polanyi Society Periodical XXV, no. 1: 29 42.
Why there is (as yet) no such thing as an economics of knowledge. In The Oxford handbook of philosophy of economics, ed. H. Kincaid and D. Ross, 99 156.
A process theory of the knowledge-based firm. Houndmills, Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. Ogilvy, J. 2011.
Personal knowledge: Towards a post-critical philosophy. London: Routledge. Poli, R. 2010. The many aspects of anticipation.
Corporate knowledge: Theory and practice of intelligent organizations. Helsinki: Metaxis. Tuomi, I. 2002. Networks of innovation:
FTA then becomes an imaginative projection of current knowledge in which formal methods/techniques play a subsidiary role followingwittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'.
appreciated (behavioural pattern and numeracy) and learned about through imaginative assessment of substantive knowledge of
The knowledge and investigative capabilities needed to achieve this are broad and may be referred to as‘specialization in breadth and depth',a rare combination in a single individual or small group.
The outcome is then a version of the long-time notion of the future as a present appreciation of current knowledge projected to some future horizon.
that arises from the unknown knowns in the FTA team's distribution of knowledge and the depth of it.
the latter needs to embrace each experts substantive knowledge, assessing ability (which enables substantive knowledge to be interpreted'into the future), and imagination;
these are all matters related to an individual's behavioural pattern. The literature relating to the methods used in FTA will not be reviewed
Figure 1 sets out compactly the influence of knowledge, and conversely of ignorance, on the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance
selection of methods used in FTAINDICATING the nature of the knowledge (ignorance) each assumes to be present along the two axes.
On the vertical axis at the rational pole knowledge tends to be deductive, more formally structured, with a formal degree of objectivity and with a methodological proscription all of
In contrast at the existential pole, knowledge is more inductive, less structured, typically subjective, and requires more interaction with the environment.
A high degree of knowledge is assumed a priori, about the goals and the socio-technical structure of the situation logical positivist/empiricist assumes that a situation can be isolated from the context in
and to get past their dichotomy by placing knowledge in a broader context of its contribution to social evolution Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 760 D. Loveridge
FTA knowledge is: Not verifiable experimentally in the scientific mode Highly uncertain and complex, particularly relating to the existence of causal relationships Able to create the basis for visions of the future based on common ground among participants Action oriented in terms of identifying threats,
challenges and opportunities and the relevance of knowledge for a particular situation More than future-oriented research Normative combining socio-techno-economic feasibility and scientific possibility to yield desirable outcomes
The next section illustrates how knowledge relevant to FTA can be elicited showing the practical implications of many of the issues raised above. 6. Combining quantitative
The need for capabilities and knowledge in breadth and depth is established clearly. Figure 2 (Loveridge 2009) illustrates a scheme for undertaking the essential learning processes.
Persons of thought were the conventional experts who had deep knowledge of matters relating to a particular component of the situation or of a tightly related set of components.
these were substantive knowledge, assessing ability and imagination. Substantive knowledge was the base from which the expert's responses,
in the elicitation, would be made; assessing ability was the way and skill with which the expert was able to interpret his knowledge into the future
and imagination was free thinking ability. Next, the elicitation moved to an assessing ability test in which the interviewee was asked to respond to 10 questions, drawn from the Guinness Book of Records, in a probabilistic way:
At the same time, the ever decreasing dimensional scale of artefacts means that FTA will become involved in knowledge of measurements
and O. Saritas (3) FTA needs to embrace not the notions of knowledge but of ignorance,
uncertainty and ignorance (5) Pursued on the basis of knowledge applied through due diligence investigations'FTAASSUMES that its processes have an innate capability to deal with dynamic situations made up of many interconnected themes, each
) by universities and firms, the production, diffusion and transfer of knowledge;(iii) the arena of programming,
In the case of genomics, for example, where knowledge about gene sequences and protein structures promises to lead to new,
According to this belief in progress, a next version of products, systems or knowledge will be available (Braun 1995.
The effect of expectations also depends on the social distance to knowledge production. Mackenzie (1990) describes in his study on guided nuclear missiles how the degree of uncertainty about the promised capabilities of the missile depends on the distance from the development itself.
'and at that time such knowledge is needed probably not anymore. This does not imply that in a constructivist perspective all expectations are necessarily the same.
when it concerns stakeholders at distance from the knowledge production. Third, the sociology of expectations claims that estimates of the future are rooted deeply in the developments
This involves studies of technology Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 780 H. van Lente assessment, foresight, intermediary organisations, politics of knowledge production and philosophy of technology.
A knowledge-based perspective. Futures 43, no. 3: 265 78. Froot, K. A d. S. Scharftstein,
and industry who had extensive knowledge of each company and its industry. Interviews were structured semi
Foresight in the knowledge economy, ed. H. Tsoukas and J. Shepherd, 1 19. London: Blackwell.
which social relations and the communication of insights and knowledge (Georghiou et al. 2008) are critical for successful outcomes.
and recognition of each other's feelings, for mutual learning, knowledge sharing and experimentation, all of which are critical to building the kind of interactions and inclusive dialogue across the network that lead to trust, legitimacy and a common identity.
and new knowledge are combined Monitor the business FTA PROCESSES lead to an enhanced responsiveness of the network,
a cooperative interactive network rooted in communication channels that allow relevant and agreed information to flowfreely to create a common base of knowledge shared among partners to ensure that trust is enhanced;
and business efficiency-Information strategic resource-Training and education-Quality of transferable knowledge is predicted Information flow free and a common base of knowledge in the net maximises individuals'learning and creativity Communication
and objectives-Based on feedback loops and information persistence-Interpersonal and technological channels in use-Based on cross boundary learning and knowledge flow-Intuition
The information and knowledge which are shared throughout the business networks can lead to the networks'adaptation and evolution,
this would also enable the development of a common base of knowledge and sustainability vision,
Local social knowledge management: Community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises. Paper prepared for the STRATA ETAN Expert Group action on Mobilising the Regional foresight Potential for an Enlarged European union.
and in diverse specific languages becomes critical in this context Competencies There is a latent importance of building an organisational culture that stimulates knowledge generation
they may not have such detailed knowledge about the other IAS. Mapping enables experts to extend their expertise outside of their own IAS,
The landscape maps were created using a process consistent with commonly accepted methods of mapping knowledge domains 1 (see Fig. 1:!
The next step was to take the localized knowledge extracted from the IA analysis and compare the strengths and weakness with the rest of the DOE complex.
coupled with the tacit knowledge that comes from years of personal experience as experts in a technical field,
Better context also enables better avoidance of duplicative efforts and better knowledge of research risks.
W. Boyack, Visualizing knowledge domains, Annu. Rev. Inf. Sci. Technol. 37 (2003) 179 255.2 S. Deerwester, S. T. Dumais, T. K. Landauer, G. W. Furnas, R. A. Harshman, Indexing
A gene expression map for Caenorhabditis elegans, Science 293 (2001) 2087 2092.11 K. W. Boyack, Mapping knowledge domains:
Dr. Boyack's current interests and work are related to information visualization, knowledge domains, semantics, metrics and indicators, cognition,
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture, and knowledge spaces: constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland Toni Ahlqvist a, Minna Halonen a, Annele Eerola a, Sirkku Kivisaari a, Johanna Kohl a, Raija Koivisto
, and knowledge spaces: constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 821-841, DOI:
8 september 2012,821 841 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture, and knowledge spaces: constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland Toni Ahlqvist*,Minna Halonen, Annele Eerola, Sirkku Kivisaari, Johanna Kohl, Raija Koivisto
and connecting research-based theoretical knowledge with practical knowledge through applications. We explore the questions of systemic transformations in the context of Finnish RTO, namely VTT Technical research Centre of Finland,
We realise this by specifying the knowledge spaces and scopes related to roadmaps. After that, we demonstrate the‘widened'roadmapping approach by using four of VTT's foresight projects as case studies.
Section 3 presents the notion of process-based roadmapping that is based on the identification of knowledge space and roadmap scope.
and knowledge spaces 823 Figure 1. Interplay of past, present, and future knowledge in an organisation. memory, at least to some extent.
The causality between decisions made and paths realised is not always linear: in other words, it is not always certain that the decisions made
This means that the sphere of potential actions in an organisation is relational to the specific knowledge spaces (see the following section),
'The second component is a horizontal anticipatory culture that connects the critical knowledge in an RTO.
and knowledge spaces 825 information and communication technology (ICT), differs vastly from the long term of a highly inert field, such as transportation infrastructure.
and set it in the context of organisational knowledge spaces (see the next section). These kinds of future manuscripts could also be produced with other narrative foresight methods, such as scenarios or‘genius forecasting'.
Thus, it builds on a variety of organisational knowledge spaces and advances commitment. Third, the roadmapping process enables the alignment of a common vision, the knowledge spaces,
and temporal spans. To engage in a successful roadmapping process, the organisation does need not only to depict its present position,
and as a process methodology. 1 Roadmapping combines different modes of knowledge with specific activity layers (Kostoff and Schaller 2001;
In other words, roadmaps are tools for the combination of organisational knowledge that may be‘unlinkable'with other strategic methods (see e g.
but instead they are approached as knowledge umbrellas that, by integrating different analytical methods, produce a visual strategy manuscript for an organisattion Strategy roadmapping is also about engaging
and knowledge spaces 827 In process-based roadmapping, systemic transformation capacities can be built through the following three steps:(
1) identification of relevant knowledge spaces,(2) specification of the relevant roadmap scope, and (3) building a managerial orientation to deal with the results.
Knowledge spaces and roadmap scopes How is it possible to combine the roadmapping methodology with the creation of structural openness, an anticipatory agency,
In order to realise this, we propose a model that separates roadmap knowledge spaces from the roadmap scope.
Here, the knowledge space refers to a sort of niche in an organisation, in which an anticipatory agency can be mobilised.
Knowledge spaces, therefore, depict key spheres in which the systemic transformation capacity is realised. The roadmap scope (below) refers to the level at
Figure 3 shows an ideal model of roadmap knowledge spaces. In the figure we have singled out four knowledge spaces that are important in the context of RTOS (see also Table 1). The model combines the four knowledge spaces with three basic temporal scales (past, present, and futures.
In the figure, the different‘modes'of temporal objects are depicted as irregular forms. The present,
The first knowledge space is the technology space, which basically covers the domain of techniica knowledge,
emphasising technology as an object, that is, as a technological solution and a gadget, cutting through three temporal scales.
markets, and also more Figure 3. An ideal model of the knowledge spaces in an RTO.
Table 1. Depiction of knowledge spaces. Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Technology Covers a certain domain of technical knowledge, e g. different technologies, gadgets,
and development, cutting through the three temporal scales Capacities for the renewal of the technological basis:
transparency Communicating strategic aims Building synthesising vision (vertical and horizontal) Visionary strategising Aligning roadmap knowledge Visionary Exploration of futures on different scales of certainty Systemic
In our model, the knowledge space that analyses these wider socio-technical constellations is the strategy space.
and knowledge spaces 829 space and the social/actor space are combined in a distinctive strategic perspective.
The fourth knowledge space is the visionary space. This space is devoted to the exploration of futures on different levels of plausibility.
Table 1 translates the above-mentioned knowledge spaces into‘roadmapping language'and terminology. It describes the basic aims of the process
R&d perspective on a single organisation or firm Roadmapping organisattiona capacities in developing new competencies Roadmap for developing organisational/firm capacities Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces
business perspective Network roadmapping Roadmap for developing capacities for a network or a cluster Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces depends on the specific aims of the process Making business decisions on the basis
policy perspective Innovation policy roadmapping Roadmap for developing synthesising policy perspectives for public actors Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces depends on the specific aims of the process Forming policy conclusions on the basis of the roadmapping Downloaded by University of Bucharest
and combines roadmap knowledge‘spaces',depending on the specific aims of the process. The aim is to endorse business decisions on the basis of roadmapping.
and the relevant knowledge spaces described in the previous section. The aim of the case examples is to depict concisely how the systemic transformation capacities can be fostered by roadmap exercises combinnin different roadmapping scopes and knowledge spaces.
The central outcomes of the cases are contained in the concise conclusions after the cases. Building Services Roadmap:
Knowledge spaces and systemic capacities The building services roadmap can be perceived as an R&d I type of technology roadmap that is aimed to contribute to the technology space and the social/actor space.
The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 3. The building services roadmap operated, first, in the technology space.
The project knowledge in the technology space was constructed by building explicit technology visions, such as a novel way to characterise building services,
and knowledge spaces 831 Figure 4. The roadmapping process in the Building Services Roadmap (Paiho et al. 2007,
) Table 3. Summary of the knowledge spaces in the Building Services Roadmap. Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Technology Exercise covered the field of building services with an explicit focus on the future possibilities,
especially through ICT applications Capacities for the renewal of technological basis internally at VTT Technology visions were built,
e g. advanced materials Several novel single technology elements were embedded in the roadmaps Social/actor Exercise covered social/actor space from the selected perspectives Capacities for linking of knowledge internally, e g. construction and ICT
In the social/actor space, the project aimed primarily to form capacities for linking knowledge internally atvtt, by combining construction expertise with ICT expertise.
The forms of project knowledge were for example, the identification of novel market features and actors, articulating demand opportunities in advanced building service solutions,
see Figure 5). Knowledge spaces and systemic capacities The SSB roadmap can be perceived as an R&d II type of technology roadmap that aims to contribute to the strategy space and the social/actor space.
The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 4. The SSB network operated primarily in the strategy space.
It also strove to create structured openness for the creation of new serviceorieente knowledge internally at VTT.
The forms of project knowledge that catalysed systemic transformation capacities were, for example, the production of different definitions of the‘service',the identification of the most important research needs,
and knowledge spaces 833 Figure 5. The LIFE (learning by foresight and evaluation) process. for new services and service providers.
In this knowledge space, the project fostered capacities for linking and sharing existing knowledge internally, and enhanced capacities for the creation of new knowledge in an emerging service science network.
It also endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research in Finland and in Europe.
Table 4. Summary of the knowledge spaces of the SSB network. Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Strategy Exercise defined the emerging field of service research
and its future possibilities Capacities for use of the existing service knowledge Knowledge generated via roadmapping was used iteratively throughout the strategy building process, e g. definition of service, identification of most important research needs,
generation of project proposals Explicit focus on establishing a‘service mind-set'in the organisation Capacities for structured openness,
especially in creation of new service knowledge internally at VTT To fortify VTT's brand as a service research organisation by stating the VTT state-of-the-art
and vision for the future Social/actor Identification of most important players in the field of service research internally and externally Capacities and methods for linking and sharing existing knowledge internally,
opportunities and challenges Markets for new services and service providers in the field Capacities and methods for creating new knowledge in the network Endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research both in Finland and Europe
Knowledge spaces and systemic capacities The construction machinery roadmap can be approached as systemic I type roadmapping process,
The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 5. In the strategy space,
and knowledge spaces 835 Table 5. Summary of the knowledge spaces in the Construction Machinery Roadmap.
Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Strategy building client-oriented
Knowledge spaces and systemic capacities Nordic ICT Foresight can be perceived as a systemic II type of policy-oriented foresight process,
The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 6. Nordic ICT Foresight operated primarily in the strategy space.
and knowledge spaces 837 Table 6. Summary of the knowledge spaces in the Nordic ICT Foresight.
Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Strategy Assessing the implications of the ICT applications in four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway,
In the cases, the targets of the systemic capacities varied according to the different knowledge spaces and roadmap scopes,
to the construction of novel knowledge linkages in an organisation, and even towards fostering a visionary innovation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 838 T. Ahlqvist et al. culture at the level of nation-states.
albeit through differing knowledge spaces and roadmap scopes. The fourth case, Nordic ICT Foresight, was oriented a policy exercise targeted at national and transnational (Nordic) scales.
there have not been strong systematic efforts to combine the results into an evolving structure of anticipatory knowledge,
Thus, applying the project knowledge in changing organisational practices would still require further activation rounds.
There are also factors that hinder the use of future knowledge. One hindrance to converting the ideas into practices could be the somewhat abstract nature of the case examples:
even though the produced knowledge could be highly relevant, much of the useful future knowledge is left inside the project reports without further systematic steps.
Concluding remarks The article discussed the construction of the systemic transformation capacities in an RTO. It proposed that two kinds of systemic capacities are of importance:(
We presented a model of a process-based roadmap with four knowledge spaces, which extends the horizons of roadmappiing We also presented four case examples the Building Service Roadmap, SSB Network, Construction Machinery Roadmap,
and Nordic ICT Foresight which all represented different roadmap scopes and knowledge spaces. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture,
and knowledge spaces 839 The article created insights for managing systemic entities, such as organisations or companies, in systemic environments.
and other organisations would benefit from thinking explicitly in all of the four knowledge spaces discussed in the article.
Her research focusses on the links between foresight knowledge, corporate strategy, and innovation policy. She holds a Phd from Helsinki Swedish School of economics and Businessadministration and Lic.
and knowledge spaces 841 Blackwell, A f.,R. Phaal, M. Eppler, and N. Crilly. 2008. Strategy roadmaps:
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