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the case of Luxembourg, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 933-951, DOI: 10.1080/09537320903262298 To link to this article:
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Information security and trust management Telecommunications and multimedia Sustainable resource Managing sustainable development management in Understanding ecosystems and biodiversity Luxembourg Sustainable management of water resources Sustainable
uses and sources of energy Sustainable agro-systems management Spatial and urban development Identities, diversity and integration Identities, diversity and integration Labour market, educational requirements
Notes on contributors Frank Glod is senior programme manager at the National research Fund of Luxembourg
Carlo Duprel is senior programme manager at the National research Fund of Luxembourg and was involved in the conduct of the FNR Foresight study.
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experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 953-969, DOI:
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the suggestion of launching a participatory foresight process as part of the research programme was rejected by the representatives of the City of Vienna in the management team of the programme.
Technology analysis & Strategic management 20: 369 87. City of Vienna. 2007a. Wiener Strategie für Forschung, Technologie und Innovation.
Self-evaluation tool for foresight project managers. http://www. eranet-forsociety. net (accessed 19 november 2007. Freeman, C. 1991.
Management of innovation systems: the role of distributed intelligence. Antwerpen: Maklu Uitgevers N. V. OECD. 2002. Dynamising national innovation systems.
Enterprise&innovation Management Studies 1, no. 1: 73 102. Smith, K. 2002. What is the‘knowledge economy'?
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The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 971-986, DOI:
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This paper argues that constructing a specific image of young people as stakeholders points towards a dilemma of inclusive foresight that cannot be rectified by specific management and process principles.
Greener Management International 37:37 52. Böhle, K. 2003. Onkey issues of foresight: participation, prioritisation, implementation, impact.
Technology analysis and Strategic management 18, no. 3/4: 285 98. Brown, N. 2005. Shifting tenses: reconnecting regimes of truth and hope.
Technology analysis and Strategic management 15:3 18. Brown, N.,A. Nelis, B. Rappert, A. Webster, F. Anton, C. Cabello, L. Sanz-Menéndez, A. Lohnberg,
scenario planning as a strategic management tool. London: Economica. Grin, J.,F. Felix, and B. Bos. 2004.
In Managing the future: foresight in the knowledge economy, ed. H. Tsoukas, and J. Shepherd, 77 97.
A major impediment to the utilization of FTA results is their unfamiliarity to managers and policy-makers.
But, even more importantly, it familiarizes users with data-based technology analyses The manager who gets the prescribed FTA A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1071 outputs upon
13 Management of Technology (bmotq) issues! 39 MOT questions! 200 binnovation indicatorsq. 2 We gratefully acknowledge support of the U s. National science Foundation for"QTIPS-24-Hour Technology intelligence & Forecasting"(DMI-0231650.
and some managers (e g.,, occasional users of the databases and analytical tools! decision-makers (e g.,, policy-makers and managers who weigh emerging technology considerations as either their main focus or as contributing factors,
but do not perform the analyses personally). Process management calls for explicit attention to how the analyses and their outputs can best be organized to enhance utility.
Over the past decades, many management domains have come to rely quite heavily upon empirical evidence. For example, manufacturing process management used to depend completely on tacit knowledge.
process managers realized that dramatic improvements in quality were possible. There would be no bsix Sigmaq quality standards without empirical manufacturing process data and analyses thereof.
and R&d managers to gain a global perspective on entire bodies of research. That can help position research programs
Q Note that this seriously alters relationships and expectations between manager users and technology analysts. Particularly for academic researchers, we have an inclination to say bwe can deliver a fine analysis;
Provide each researcher, development engineer, project manager, intellectual property analyst, etc. with direct, desktop access to a couple of most useful S&t information databases.!
The manager who incorporates data-based intelligence into decision processes will be informed better and that will lead to competitive advantage.
What You Need from Technology information Products, Research-Technology management, 2004 (Nov 8 H. de Bruijn, A l. Porter, The education of a technology policy analyst-to process management, Technology analysis and Strategic management 16 (2)( 2004
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Ahti Salo, Ville Brummer & Totti Könnölä (2009) Axes of balance in foresight reflections from Finnsight 2015, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 987-1001, DOI:
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In our analysis, we discuss the policy context, management structure, methodological execution and key results of Finnsight.
and legitimacy. 3. Process design and implementation 3. 1. Early preparations and management structures The initial preparations of Finnsight were started in early 2005 at a time
The Steering Group consisted mostly of civil servants from the top management of the funding agencies and Väyrynen and Saarnivaara took turns in chairing its meetings.
and the project manager of Finnsight. 3. 2. Foresight panels and phases of the foresight process The delineation of foresight panels was an iterative process where the Core group explored some alternative rationales for choosing panel titles, even in view of international experiences,
b) Management of panel interfaces The panellists had a considerable amount of freedom in interpreting the suggested scope of their panels.
it is worth highlighting that the identification of the competence area Assessment and management of global risks
technologies 5. Infrastructure and security Environmental know-how and technology Logistic know-how and security of supply management Integration know-how 6. Bio-expertise and bio-society Complete use of renewable
Management and modelling of biological knowledge 7. Information and communications Sensor technology applications Data mining, analysis, management and retrieval Bio-information technology 8. Understanding and human interaction Multicultural
Global economy Assessment and management of global risks Impacts of business globalisation on national economies Management of innovation processes panel reports. 5 The first part of the synthesis report summarised selected driving forces
and (4) fixed vs autonomous management of the process. 4. 1. Instrumental vs informative use of foresight results In terms of alternative modes of harnessing foresight conclusions,
even if this may cause a certain degree of unpredictability and cause management challenges. In contrast, exclusive stakeholder engagement refers to expressly controlled stakeholder participation that may be driven,
again, represented a further step towards distilling consensual messages from the panel reports. 4. 4. Fixed vs autonomous management Fixed management can be characterised as a centralised approach where the scope
In contrast, autonomous management refers to more openennde processes that are intermediated by the foresight co-ordinators (cf. the Core group in Finnsight) who facilitate relatively autonomous participant-led activities in the work of expert panels or other approaches (Salo
Some aspects of fixed management were adopted by agreeing on a systematic methodology that provided the same conceptual and sequential structure to the work of each panel.
Managing strategic surprise by response to weak signals. California Management Review 17, no. 2: 21 33.
Brummer, V.,T. Könnölä, and A. Salo. 2008. Foresight within ERA NETS: experiences from the preparation of an international research program.
Management of foresight portfolio: analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organization. Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21, no. 3: 381 405.
Martin, B. R, . and J. Irvine. 1989. Research foresight: priority-setting in science. London: Pinter.
Technology analysis and Strategic management 14, no. 2: 183 200. Salo, A. 2001. Incentives in technology foresight. International Journal of Technology management 21, no. 7: 694 710.
Policy and Management 2, no. 2: 167 93. Salo, A t. Könnölä, and M. Hjelt. 2004.
Enterprise&innovation Management Studies 1, no. 1: 73 102. Smits, R, . and S. Kuhlmann. 2004. The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy.
what they describe as the‘‘covenant between futures methodology and the needs of long-term strategic management and policy''.
. Johnston, Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (2008) 267 269.11 M. Keenan, R. Barre',C. Cagnin, Future-oriented technology analysis:
I. Miles, Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making, Technology analysis & Strategic management 21 (2009) 915 916.13 T. Ko nno la, J. Smith, A. Eerola, Introduction
, technology assessment, transition management, evidence-based policy and academic disciplines such as Innovation studies and Science and Technology studies 2. A number of classifications have been developed distinguishing types of Foresight with respect to approach, context and purpose 3
Experiences from the vertical R&i coordination between local, regional and (international levels provide insights into the challenges of managing multilayered innovation systems 23.
FP programmes priorities elaboration process, FP management ERA NETS, JITIS, ETP, ERC...Sectoral‘alliances'(for example SET-Plan members) Performing:
. Brown, K. Konrad, H. van Lente, The sociology of expectation in science and technology, Technology analysis & Strategic management 18 (3/4)( 2006) 285 298.7 B. De
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.9 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber, Adaptive foresight:
rethinking the role of policy, Enterprise and Innovation Management Studies 1 (1)( 2000) 73 102.17 O. Marsili, The Anatomy and Evolution of Industries:
20 N. Brown, B. Rappert, A. Webster, Foresight as a Tool for the Management of Knowledge Flows and Innovation (FORMAKIN.
(6)( 2001) 953 976.23 R. Kaiser, H. Prange, Managing diversity in a system of multilevel governance:
Interdependent risks constitute a form of risk that requires adjustment on the part of managers and planners accustomed to more direct and predictable cause-and-effect chains of events and their associated risk assessments.
The coming together of experts from a variety of technical and scientific domains as well as from a variety of business-process arenas (including research, marketing, management,
The management literature is replete with admonitions to pay attention not only to competitors but also to external factors
The very title of Andy Grove's (former chairman and CEO of Intel's) management book Only the Paranoid Survive 4 trumpets the premise that a necessary behavioral tic of successful managers is the constant,
of knowledge into a company is just as important as managing information flows within the company.
Scanning processes can provide quick, occasional doses of chaos to employees and managers. Management literature is short,
however, on practical solutions for methodically gleaning early signals of change from the surroundings or for cultivating a futures orientation in employees and managers.
The companies that currently incorporate externalities well usually depend on a leader at the top of the corporation who performs the scanning function on a continual basis,
and the documentation of findings for management are all part of the normal, ongoing cycles of the scanning process.
and brainstorming session by analysts, researchers, managers, sales and marketing staff, and consultants. SRIC-BI's staff in Croydon, England, holds a bimonthly Scan meeting.
and clusters from among the results of the brainstorming session that bear further analysis and research for potential presentation to management.
and from management to marketing. Following the scanning meetings, the filtering process that identifies valuable ideas
and managers of the importance of a heads-up attitude about the external environment. The likelihood of strategic plans'being blindsided by external developments increases every year with the increasing complexity and competition in the business environment.
and questions that scanning regularly surfaces are not typically on the radar screen or agenda of managers, planners,
The presence of a senior manager can inhibit the discussion and stifle innovative ideas and input.
Senior managers must understand their role (refraining from normal decision-making, judgmental behavior patterns), and junior staff must feel comfortable in expressing themselves.!
References 1 Mark Buchanan, Power laws and the new science of complexity management Strategy & Business 34 (2003 Spring) 71.2 Stephen Haeckel, Adaptive Enterprise:
Mckinsey Quarterly 2 (2002) 48 57.7 Mark Buchanan, Power laws and the new science of complexity management, Strategy & Business 34 (2003 Spring) 76.
They also play the principal role in the creation and management of portfolios of research projects.
the practice and its impacts, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 287 307.4 B. R. Martin, R. Johnston, Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system a review of recent
FOREN Guide Foresight for Regional development Network A Practical Guide to Regional foresight, European commission, December 2001.6 H. Chesbrough, The era of open innovation, Sloan Management Review 44 (3)( 2003.
from trend based logics to open foresight, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 321 336.8 OECD, Choosing Priorities in Science and Technology, OECD, Paris, 1991.9 K
, S. Schneider, Improving the business impact of foresight, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 339.29 P. Becker, Corporate Foresight in Europe:
for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Edificio Expo, Calle Inca Garcilaso, 3, E-41092 Seville, Spain d Institute of Policy and Management, Chinese Academy
The design of foresight activities addressing societal challenges can benefit from the structured approaches that help to identify the expectations concerning the management of the foresight process
Along these lines Ko nno la et al. 7 have developed a framework for the purposes of strategic management of a foresight portfolio in a contract research organisation.
The management approach and stakeholder engagement refer, instead, to the process-related aspects of the project, for instance responding to a question on how the outcomes were achieved and by
it is crucial to be able to develop also consensual visions and recommendations into action for policy and in more general decision-making processes. 2. 3. Chosen management approach:
fixed vs. autonomous The foresight process can be taken up with different kinds of management approaches, which are driven often by the diverse expectations laid on the project.
Furthermore, those in charge of the foresight process are likely to benefit from the sharp definition of their role and approach in the management of the process.
Fixed management can be characterised as centralised approach in which co-ordinators fix the scope and methods of the project at the outset and control the process,
Autonomous management, in turn, refers to the process intermediated by the co-ordinators, who facilitate autonomous
both dimensions may play important role in the design and management of a foresight process. 2. 4. Chosen emphasis in stakeholder engagement:
Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement Nordic ICT Foresighta 17 Informative Evaluations of key ICT applications, Nordic scenario set in context of ICT development, scenario
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 255 Table 1 (Continued) Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement UK DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 256 Table 1 (Continued) Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement FISTERA:
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 257 Table 1 (Continued) Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement National Technology roadmap in Korea Informative Learning about the technology
and management dimensions discussed in Section 2 . When the dimensions of outcomes (informative vs. instrumental) and future perspectives (consensual vs. diverse correspond the horizontal and vertical lines,
the horizontal axis represents the qualitative continuum from fixed to autonomous management, and the vertical axis the continuum from extensive to exclusive stakeholder engagement.
and managed in collaboration with DG()TD$FIG Fig. 3. Foresight projects positioned in view of the dimensions of outcomes (informative vs. instrumental), future perspectives (consensual vs. diverse) and in the coordinate system of stakeholder engagement (extensive and exclusive) and management
and management of foresight projects have to look for cautious balance between different design dimensions in order to accommodate different stakeholder expectations.
We expect that the developed framework can facilitate the discussion about the expectations and the management of foresight projects and about its impact on policy-making and society at large.
The correct positioning and management of foresight is crucial to link it better with policymakkin formulation,
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.7 T. Ko nno la, T. Ahlqvist, A. Eerola, S. Kivisaari
, R. Koivisto, Management of foresight portfolio: analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.8 M. Cariola, R. Secondo, Evolution in the rationales of foresight
in Europe, Futures 36 (10)( 2004) 1063 1075.9 T. Ko nno la, V. Brummer, A. Salo, Diversity in foresight insights from the fostering of innovation ideas
and some specific tools of operations management and operational research (such as DEMATEL, AHP, ANP, MCA methods for priority-setting;
organisation and management of an FTA programme, including, in addition to standard project management methods, approaches needed for the selection, recruitment and mobilisation of participants in the process.
Popper 10 relates methods to a yet wider account of the stages through which Foresight programmes typically pass.
however, a dozen less-qualified books by political or management gurus and even from countercultural or radical thinkers that are hyped up well beyond their deserts.
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 272 management in a scenario workshop are discussed in the next section,
though they may have received some training in facilitation processes and workshop methods (from T-groups through management workshops to academic seminars).
and careful management of IT system designers who may lean more toward TKM frameworks. Again, the design of FTA needs to take into account the needs of KM
It will be the task of the‘‘knowledge manager''to design systems that can facilitate this,
. Kivisaari, R. Koivisto, Management of foresight portfolio analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.15 E. Eriksson
Management Information systems 25 (1)( 2001) 107 136.39 T. Rogers-Hayden, N. Pidgeon, Moving engagement‘‘upstream''?
From a stakeholder perspective, strategic management needs to create a satisfactory balance of interests among the various stakeholders who contribute to
-Managers'attitudes towards CSR and related concepts. -Instrumental research attempting to either confirm or disprove the link between corporate social and environmental performance and financial performance.
and managers approach the business case for CSR in practice. Empirical studies suggest that the relationship between financial performance
Descriptive research suggests that managers focus on the economic dimension of CSR revealing two shortcomings on firms'approach CSR
and (ii) there are even fewer studies that have concentrated explicitly on the business case for CSR as a driver of corporate sustainability management 30.5.2.
with the latter serving short term currency stabilization and liquidity management. To link foreign direct investments to CSR,
flows. 3. New business models for the design, production, distribution, retail and management of products and services. 4. Responses to the challenge of sustainability and changes in demography, in consumer behaviours and in social values,
This also raises the need for board evaluation measures against corporate and societal objectives as well as on the effect of stakeholders'communication and participation on management, transparency, performance (economic, environmental and social),
Few companies have engaged operating management in processes that identify and prioritise social issues, based on their salience to business operations and their importance to the company's competitive context 29.
Even fewer have unified their philanthropy with the management of their CSR efforts, much less sought to embed a social dimension into their core values.
The Informed Student Guide to Management Science, Thomson Learning, London, 2002,, p. 72.13 D. Loveridge, P. Street, Inclusive foresight, Foresight 7 (3)( 2005) 31 47.14 D. Loveridge, Foresight:
A Management Science Approach, John Wiley, Chicester, 2001.16 A m. Weinberg, Science and trans science, Minerva 10 (1972) 209 222.17 R. E. Freeman, Strategic management:
literature review and research options, European Management Journal 23 (1)( 2005) 27 36.31 U. Steger, A. Ionescu-Somers, O. Salzmann, The economic foundations of corporate
California Management Review 2 (1960) 70 76.34 B. Gates, Making Capitalism More Creative, Time Inc.,2008 July 31.
and risk managers define vulnerabilities within a given system and to then consider what type of event might de-stabilise that system.
involving disruptions and shifts to new premises for societal management, e g. energy alternatives, resource shortages,
and need for management Aging/labor force ratio creating tensions Negative prospects from genetic manipulation‘‘Privacy loss''as 21st century externality Pandemic risks increase Genetically designed children will be possible Dematerialisation the West
Many of the most articulately described drivers were associated those with the management uncertainties of change in the environmental, governance and globalization response systems.
sources and climate-resources management represent the most frequently cited domains, with the next area being new governance models.
and Technology analysis & Strategic management 8. The large number of papers submitted in 2008 is an indication both of the central role the FTA Conference has come to play, principally for European researchers but also increasingly for researchers from around the world,
8 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R. Johnston, Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008.
Swiss Expert for the International Energy Agency (IEA) Demand-Side Management (DSM) Task XXIV on Behaviour Change,
and Swiss Management Committee member for the COST Action TU1104 on Smart Energy Regions. Furthermore, he contributes to knowledge transfer from research into teaching.
Before joining Technopolis, Thomas worked at the Manchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR) and in management consulting (Roland Berger Strategy Consultants and NFO Infratest.
It juxtaposes a problem typology and a typology of methods Keywords FTA METHODS, Transport planning, Risks, Uncertainties, Unintended effects, Uncertainty management,
Keywords Complexity, Disruptive events, Emergence, Reframing, Variation, Policy making, Complexity theory, Uncertainty management, Strategic planning Paper type Conceptual paper 1. Foresight techniques To date,
has focussed on adapting scenario techniques, Rami'rez and Van der Heijden (2008) or on wild card management, for example that based on weak signal methodologies, Mendonc¸a et al.
The Essential Guide to Complexity theory in Business and Management, Spiro Press, London. Bell, W. 2003), Foundations of Futures studies:
transistor based on a single carbon nanotube, Nature 393 (1998) 49 52.32 A. Rip, T. J. Misa, T. J.,J. Schot, Managing Technology
From 1997 until 1999 he was research manager at KPMG Inspire Foundation, a think tank of the KPMG consulting firm,
the legal framework, the technology base and the management skills. This conceptual model may vary a lot from one country to other.
because it provided an adequate management of the topic's complexity and uncertainty while at the same time unfolding alternative futures.
This model requires a strong set of management skills in all public organisations to guide participation and coordination actions.
Public management should be able to internalise environmental costs through sophisticated environmental evaluation tools. Functional implications of Scenario B (2025.
frequent disputes between political, social and economic stakeholders hinder consensus. Horizontal elements such as legislation, technology and management are weak in the first stages of the planning stages,
Spatial development in the study area will take place as follows (see Figure 9). Territorial management strategies will not incorporate the principles of sustainable development extensively,
and more based on management principles. B The urban planning processes will have to incorporate breakthrough innovations and subsequently, be totally reengineered.
He was a Senior Manager of Strategic Services at Andersen consulting (1988-1998) and a Senior Partner at Gu ell & Partners Consulting (1998-2005.
and management and organisation science. They believe‘‘t hese will provide a variety of interpretative lenses that offer the possibility to expand our conceptualisation of FTA,
as well as the political capital invested in regulatory management systems PAGE 344 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 now established in most OECD countries.
brings important benefits to law enforcement authorities, namely the prevention of criminal activity and the better management and deployment of police resources.
Through this analysis, the paper underlines the roles that FTA can play in managing uncertainty
Technological Analysis and Strategic management vol. 20 (3; Technological forecasting and Social Change, vol. 72 (9; as well as to the publication of the book Cagnin et al.
The FIDIS project (Future of Identity in the Information society) aimed to shape the requirements for the future management of identity in the European Information society (EIS)
systems analysis and project management) to participate in an experiment to develop two science roadmaps using different approaches:
After serving as a project manager for several technology assessment studies for the Institute for Technology assessment and Systems analysis (ITAS) of Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Germany,
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and shaping structural and systemic changes, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 729-734, DOI: 10.1080/09537325.2012.715475 To link to this article:
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These invade both the qualitative and quantitative pieces of information that are joined to create outcomes for policy and management in all the STEEPV themes (Social, Technological, Economic, Ecology, Politics and Values and Norms.
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Ilkka Tuomi (2012) Foresight in an unpredictable world, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 735-751, DOI:
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we have to reconsider some key concepts that underlie future-oriented analysis and strategic management. Two sources of unpredictability In much of contemporary thinking, failures in prediction indicate a need to engage in further study and research.
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