Multi-path mapping for alignment strategies in emerging science and technologies Douglas K. R. Robinson a,,
Tilo Propp b a Department of Science, Technology, Health and Policy Studies, University of Twente, Enschede, The netherlands b Department of Innovation and Environmental sciences, University of Utrecht, Utrecht
accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Roadmapping serves both short and long term (strategic) alignment in science and technology (S&t.
This paper discusses, based on a first round application in the field of micro and nanotechnologies for single cell analysis, the methodology of such a new approach.
Constructive technology assessmentavailable online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 Corresponding author.
10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.002 1. Lacunae and prospects of assessment and alignment tools for emerging science and technology For innovation to succeed actor alignment in the form of innovation chains from laboratory to products
and the technology field is understood well. This is the case with incremental innovation in established technological paradigms.
For new and emerging fields of science and technology (S&t) where architectural (radical innovations might occur 1,
conditions of non-linearity and high technology and market uncertainty are typical 2. This often leaves actors with the alternative of‘muddling through
'and capitalising on fortuitous events until such time that there is a feeling of stabilisation and assessments and forecasts have become more reliable.
However, in an age of strategic science and high-investment projects decision makers need to identify possible and promising directions and options and influence technology emergence in advance.
These are challenges for current strategic technology intelligence and forward-looking assessment tools. This is especially the case for the recent European Networks of Excellence
and Technology platforms have to deal with: they have been created around new and Emerging s&t and have to develop strategies in the early stages of an emerging situation.
Out project is embedded in a particular network of excellence on nanotechnology called Frontiers. Among the central aims of the Frontiers Network-of-Excellence (Noe) programme1 are a. the coordination of research activities in the research institutes that comprise the Noe (alignment;
This includes actors outside the network, in the case of nanotechnology, start-ups and SMES which have a lot at stake in entering such risky innovation chains.
Many networks and platforms have dedicated working groups or programmes on foresight, strategic planning and anticipation of societal and ethical hurdles to innovation based on emerging technologies.
Another term, with a similar outlook but not limited to technology only, is strategic intelligence (SI) 2
which allow the Frontiers network to develop strategies for a number of different issues relevant to particular areas within nanotechnologies for the life sciences.
which aim to coordinate activities in enabling nanotechnologies for research in the life sciences. The Technology assessment Programme is part of the Science to Industry work package and the Ethical and Societal Aspect package,
and is led by Douglas K. R. Robinson. 2 Cf. 29.518 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 of alignment to allow for the creation of innovation chains in the field of micro and nanotechnology.
The project has added benefit at two levels: 1. developing recommendations for the Frontiers research network;
At both intra-organizational (department-level) and inter-organizational levels in technology and industry, roadmapping has become a fashionable alignment tool.
There is a wealth of literature focusing on the functions, uses and tools of roadmaps in high-technology companies andmncs 3 20.
knowledge of the technology and market drivers) are generally uncertain 9, 21,22. New s&t are defined not by eventual application but characterised by‘generic richness,
Literature in the management of innovation, expectations management and sociology-of-technology fields has stressed repeatedly that for assessments during early stages of technological emergence, more‘open-ended'
4 Even though group leaders may use roadmap-type forecasts to organize financial support for their research. 5 As the Dutch Minacned consortium did in 2006 with their‘Roadmap Micro/Nanotechnology in Food';
'cf http://www. minacned. nl/nl/activiteiten/roadmap mnt food nutrition. php. 6 MANCEF is based the US Micro and Nanotechnology Commercialization and Education Foundation;
/7 Cf Rip et al 2005 30‘Assessment'and‘alignment'can be used somewhat interchangeably where they refer to tools that help assessing actions on the way to an anticipated future-tools for‘anticipatory coordination'(learning curves of‘disruptive technologies';‘
and tools for portfolio and project management. 519 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 The point we make is that technological uncertainty
because products/applications would need a high degree of coordination to enable integration of a large number of technology innovations into a platform
'which mirrors dynamics underlying technology S-curves: in early stages of technology emergence, the more flexible multi-path mapping is used;
in later stages, when the technological, regulatory and business context of the (hopefully) growiin start-up/SME has matured,
the company can switch towards roadmapping for incremental innovation. Before delving into the context of lab-on-a-chip for cell analysis we explore what the literature can tell us with regards to insights into emerging path dynamics stemming from sociology of S&t, evolutionary economics and organization studies.
In his seminal paper, Dosi 34 argued that technical paradigms direct activities in technology development and thus are both rules that guide heuristics
'and‘patterns'for finding solutions to selected technological problems, based on selected principles derived from natural sciences and on selected material technology().
A technological paradigm embodies strong prescriptions on the directions of technical change to pursue and those to neglect.
Dosi, 1982, p 152) In their paper investigating the airplane construction regime, Nelson andwinter 35 argued that
these routines add up to a technological regime. The shared direction of search processes adds up to what they term as a technical trajectory at the sector level:
In the DC-3 case engineers were singled out as the drivers of the development. In other situations, it may be a continuing product-use combination (cf. the recent trajectory of mobile telephony),
Why do certain technologies become dominant even though they may be sub-optimal (such as the use of the QWERTY typewriter layout in computer consoles)?
Small events can trigger a technological path that is 10 Affordance structures suggest directions of action,
12 It was developed as a framework to study emerging alignments and entanglements in the field of nanotechnology,
lab-on-a-chip devices for cell analysis The vision of performing laboratory experiments at a micro or even nanoscale was posed first by Terry 50 who linked the idea of integrated microelectronics to the notion of integrated
In 1993, Harrison and Manz 52 reported on a breakthrough regarding the successful miniaturisation of the analytical technique of capillary electrophoresis,
foreseeing that this technology could aid them in their work or enable new lines of research,
Around 2000 nanotechnology started entering this field, offering improvements to existing chip components, but also providing novel concepts for separation and detection, cell analysis, cell manipulation etc.
High-throughput screening and microarray technologies are now in common use for measuring gene and protein expression and for assessing biological activity of potential drug targets.
and tested as technologies in of themselves as specific capabilities, techniques or devices. Examples could be a microfluidic channel, a fluid mixing system, a sample injector, positioner, sensor etc.
and bridge the technology hurdle of integrating these proof-of-principle devices and combine them into an experimental platform for systems research such as protein analysis in the lab (moving from phase 1 to phase 2). Such an integration of a number of devices into an experimental system is undertaken usually in a university laboratory.
and technology development begins. Fig. 1. Phases of materialization of the vision of lab-on-a-chip.
Loc device for many purposes (like a through a plug in and play technology platform. The grey crescent represents the present barrier
nanotechnology based tools are beginning to emerge as promising devices for single cell and subcellular analysis. Although current microtechnologies (including microfluidics) provide a foundation for creating a nanotechnology interface with single cells,
both the integration of multiple functions and automated analysis and data handling remain to be accomplished in a selfconttaine cell-on-a-chip.
Besides the challenge of integrating many components and devices, a more general challenge is how to bridge technology research with start-ups
and/or multinational corporations to allow technology applications suited to market demands and more broadly, societal needs:
With a multitude of projections of technology configurations and possible applications in circulation, and the lack of successful innovation chains meaning lab-on-a-chip remains at the research level,
a project was set up under the framework of the Frontiers Technology assessment Programme to: 1. explore and develop tools to map possible futures for the field of cell-on-a-chip with a focus on single cell analysis
and identify possible promising paths for the technology; 2. use analysis of path dynamics and other strategic intelligence to explore the robustness of specific paths located within the field map;
and 3. evaluate which paths show the most promise of successfully bridging the gaps in the innovation chain for single cell analysis with lab-on-a-chip technology.
technical dimension Lab-on-a-chip specifically for cell analysis is particularly relevant for Frontiers research lines due to its focus on instrumentation based on nanotechnologies for the life sciences.
Of particular interest is the proliferation of research and development of nanotechnologies for cell analysis the laboratory, the proliferation of expectation of applications for such cell-on-a-chip devices,
Each of these six functions houses scientific research and technology development. We want to point out that within the six functions attributed to a cell-focused laboratory on a chip,
and promises about tissue engineering on a chip, stem cell analysis and possible production, 526 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75
and a number of semistruccture interviews we constructed a map of the actual and possible technological
and application paths for chip-based cell analysis platforms (cf Fig. 3). The map indicates that actors can select between two distinct yet general clusters of technological paths within cell analysis:
Multiple cell analysis is a technology path in as far as platforms and instruments are constructed around the principle of using multiple cells;
Any cell analysis technique Fig. 3. Technological multi-path map for cell-on-a-chip (Bioreactor 57). 527 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp
and technologies shown in the lowest band on the diagram. Each decision is strategic as it requires investments and expertise on the parts of actors involved
There can be a number of technological paths towards one application area. This is because the labels(‘medical diagnostics';‘
Nevertheless more defined purposes require more specific technologies and hence, particular technological paths. The map shows the possible paradigms that can emerge.
The existing technologies and the visions we have mapped here refer to results, or visions, of actors involved in the innovation process.
The first path shows a technology that is already present within a start-up company (as a prospective component of an integrated system)
where government support has been granted to refine existing technologies and develop an integrated platformfor DNA analysis, with a particular focus on point-of-use.
microfabrication and nanotechnology tools for cell analysis and (2) start-up companies and small-and medium-sized enterprises (SMES) relating to specific cell analysis techniques and lab-on-a-chip technology.
In-house R&d of a multinational corporation (MNC) Technology development conducted by SMES but stimulated by an MNC Start-ups finding opportunities and becoming the integrator Separate integrators
and integrate them into a lab-on-a-chip technology platform. Thus innovation chain 1 was said to have a key stumbling block no clear market is visible for return on investment and thus.
Identifying the end user is one clear approach to selecting the components and configurations of a technology innovation chain.
but requires a belief in the technology. The participants agreed that this is lacking in MNCS due to previous hype-disappointment cycles such as in biosensors.
and attempt to develop the technology. Intellectual property (IP) is shared with the MNC. Major issues here were agreed in the workshop to relate to the relationship between MNC and start-ups:
www. technology assessment. eu. 530 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 but then proceeded to outsource the further development of product
Networks of start-ups and SMES related to micro and nanotechnology (cf Minacned) already exist. Thus a form of co-option would be desired the goal to take the step of integration together
and nanotechnology SME networks such as Minacned. 21 Innovation chain 4 is currently occurring at the University of Twente (NL) where a start-up company with a specific sensor is acting as platform integrator.
The IP issue can be generalised to many projected nanotechnology innovations where technologies cannot be products in themselves
but must be part of a system of technologies to be enabled. 22 Furthermore, the workshop participants recognized the difficulty of researchers in public institutions getting credit in developing integrated platforms.
Although pressure is on them to provide research that can be turned into innovation chains, there is little acknowledgement of time spent on doing this as opposed to research
and teaching. 23 One way of doing this is developing an integrated platform based on an interesting 18 This agglomeration effect of technology platforms is particularly strong for nanotechnologies 67.
sensors etc. enabled through nanotechnology. Exceptions however include coatings and catalysts, which can in themselves be turned into innovations. 23 This also a general issue in relation to the current situation of strategic science and application oriented research. 532 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting
MPM-1 was developed to map technology-based complexitiie of future projections from various communities and for various phases of a prospective innovation chain.
We tailored this particular MPM with the generally acknowledged phases specific to lab-on-a-chip technology.
We organized a highly interactive workshop following the premises of Constructive technology assessment (CTA) 69, where insights into technology dynamics are explored with actors
in order to broaden at an early stage the decision making process. The MPM-2 project involved a collective mapping of projected actor strategy paths (or actors'paths-into-the-future) and a reflection on the future socio-technical path or entanglements
then any of the innovation chains identified can create the matrix of entanglements constitutive of the new technology-application paradigm:
The strategy support systems will be developed further for different technology fields being investigated within the framework of the Frontiers research programme.
This network level strategy support system is somewhat abstract from specific technological issues, such as cell-on-a-chip;
The tool can also be used in communities outside of research and technology development but related to its financing, such as venture capitalists.
and R&d intelligence is separate from strategic management intelligence embodied in specialized technology consultancies but both cooperate in the context of alignment exercises.
if they can gain extra insights on organizational innovation chains (as well as the technology paths), and thus a tailoring of the tool for the start-up company is currently ongoing.
Acknowledgements This work was funded through the Technology assessment Program of the Dutch Nanotechnology Consortium Nanoned led by Arie Rip (University of Twente)
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Managing Technology in Society. The Approach of Constructive technology assessment, Pinter Publishers, London, 1995. Douglas K. R. Robinson obtained his undergraduate and master's degree in Physics and Space S&t at the University of Leicester (UK) and Universität Siegen (Germany.
A further master's degree focused on an interdisciplinary study of the space sector combining science, technology policy and innovation studies with a final thesis focusing on cosmonautics research in the former Soviet union with field research undertaken at the Cosmonaut Training Centre (Star City) and the Institute of Biomedical Problems, Moscow.
His current Phd research focuses on challenges for governance and management relating to the dynamics of emerging nanotechnologies,
where studies of expectations and paths are combined with strategy articulation tools to provide strategic intelligence for reflexive governance and management of Emerging s&t.
He worked in South africa on the dynamics of social development projects and science-and-technology-in-society issues and at Twente University,
as well as the interaction of the system with the broader socio-technological-economic-political environment. Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Corresponding author.
and complexity of the ways information and knowledge is mediated, especially through developments in information and communication technologies, the increasing importance of knowledge-based industries and the service sector,
and impacts (both direct and indirect) and with the broader socio-technological-economic-political environment.
Supporting innovation-based growth Achievement of long-term reform of the productive system through a raised emphasis on high technology Making the case for increased investment in R&d More informed STI priorities
It should also be noted that the literature on technology assessment programmes is also relevant to the case of foresight programmes.
and suggested the inclusion of some elements of‘technology assessment'.'Concerning networking-related effects, the evaluation stressed that aftercare was needed
Compared with the‘technological'orientation of the first round, the second round had a greater‘social'orientation.
The first round led people to understand that technology is shaped socially, and the need to widen the scope of the second round was acknowledged.
and extensive media promotion that raised the profile of science, technology and innovation on the national agenda.
e g. the alignment of potential technological solutions within the emerging constituency and widely recognised technical
and shape each other in the course of the creation, production and diffusion of specific technologies (28 pg. 387). 553 E. Amanatidou,
important factors include the degree of alignment between the (technological) solutions proposed and widely recognised technical
and collaborating technologies. 9. Conclusions Analysis of the major characteristics of the emerging knowledge societies suggest that the characteristics
as well as the interaction of the system with the broader socio-technological-economic-political environment. The model presented in Fig. 3a
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Since 1996 she held the position of Director of the Science and Technology policy Studies Unit at ATLANTIS Research organisation (Greece)
and led the EGIST (Evaluation of Government and Industry Strategies for Technology) group; and Technopolis Ltd, an innovation policy consultancy which he founded in 1989 and which,
as the broadest socioeconomic context for universities, with its own science, technology and innovation (STI) policy tools,
training the future generation of researchers, engineers, managers (including R&d managers), experts, and policy-makers (among many other fields, for STI policies);
although they have advanced technologies to a very significant extent, and several major inventions have preceded long the proper theories of their underpinning scientific principles,
In other words, the links between science and technology are far from being (uni-)linear. Contrary to the widespread belief that technologies are, in essence, applied sciences,
a number of scientific disciplines evolved from the puzzles why certain technologies work as they do 22.12 This list is far from being exhaustive:
to keep it short, many professionals are mentioned not here, whose activities are also of crucial importance for successfulrtdi activities,
and patents) because the principal outputs of its scientific and technological activities are consumed by government itself in terms of advice,
or by private clients for technological consultancy. 38, p. 65). 20 Space limits prevent presenting data here;
Technological changes offer more sophisticated and thus more expensive equipment for conducting research, but in the meantime it also becomes a must to purchase these pieces of advanced equipment,
the combined effects of technological changes, together with the pressure on public funding, open a gap between rapidly increasing research costs
and engineering doctoral students coming from EU countries have firm plans to stay in the US upon the completion of their studies,
how to take advantage of major technological, demographic changes and opportunities stemming from globalisation; how to respond to intensifying and globalising competition in research and higher education.
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la lettre OST, No. 22,2001. 19 L. Georghiou, Evolving frameworks for European collaboration in research and technology, Res.
of Education and Research, Bonn, 2005.42 G. Dosi, P. Llerena, M. Sylos Labini, The relationships between science, technologies and their industrial exploitation:
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