methods to get information for discussion on strategies of sustainable growth through science and technology. It seeks to address the combination of outputs in an objective manner to identify expected areas of future innovation toward the desired future as well as related areas that are supposed to play a key part.
Keywords Foresight, Combination, Delphi method, Scenario, Innovation, Sustainable development, Forward planning Paper type Case study 1. Introduction The situation surrounding science and technology has undergone a radical change in recent years.
and many countries have shown a clear tendency to place special focus on science and technology policy in their innovation strategies.
Science and technology policy are discussed often including the creation of values in society, social or economic conditions for their promotion,
In Japan, the status of science and technology policy in the national grand strategy has changed significantly as its GDP growth rate stagnates in the face of intensified international competition and a falling birth rate and aging population.
10.1108/14636681311310105 Yoshiko Yokoo and Kumi Okuwada are based at the National Institute of Science and Technology policy, Tokyo, Japan.
Since 1996, science and technology policy has been carried out under the Science and Technology Basic Plans which are formulated every five years.
and technology to contribute toward addressing global or national challenges. In the Fourth Basic Plan (Government of Japan
solving global or national issues through the effective application of science and technology. In this situation, the idea of placing special focus on particular fields has to be phased out,
B the fusion of several areas in science and technology; B collaboration with the humanities and social science;
and B the promotion of science and technology viewed as an integral part of social-system reformation.
Converging technologies, collaboration or fusion of several fields (nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and cognitive science) have been given attention since the mid-2000s.
and technologies are becoming interrelated and need to be converged, and converging technologies focus on human performance or the social or economic dimension (National science Foundation, 2002,2005;
European commission, 2004. It is expected that converging technologies will trigger innovation and lead to the solution of social issues in the future.
Foresight has changed its role according to these changes: it aims to provide an overview of future impacts on our society in broader contexts.
Their main role was to identify key or emerging technologies, looking into the development of science and technology and the expected changes in society.
Strong emphasis is placed on how key technologies or emerging technologies should be integrated and adequately embedded in society to achieve social goals and tackle social issues.
Foresight is expected to facilitate a framework for integrated knowledge. 2. The 9th Science and Technology foresight in Japan A variety of methods have been adopted in alignment with the objectives of a project including extrapolative/normative methods or qualitative/quantitative methods.
The 9th Science and Technology foresight in Japan (see Figure 1) focuses on science and technology,
Considering the relation between science and technology and society along the lines of science in and for society, it is necessary to have a broad view from both the technological and social aspects.
1. Delphi that focuses on the technological aspect; 2. scenario that explores the interaction between the technological aspect and the social aspect;
and 3. workshop that aims for the participation of citizens. The exercise was conducted by the National Institute of Science and Technology policy from 2008 to 2010.
It started with a discussion on social goals and their relation to science and technology, considering changes on a global or national scale.
Based on the discussion, four global or national challenges were set as the goals of science, technology and innovation.
They act as an umbrella covering three investigative studies which were carried out independently by using the methods mentioned above.
B Delphi provides technological perspectives for the challenges; B scenario reveals the social impact of technological development
and B workshop provides tangible examples of the challenges on a regional scale as well as the technological and social conditions involved.
The main points are expert panels by cross-disciplinary theme rather than by technological discipline, the active participation of specialists in social science and humanities,
is to identify the expectations for science and technology. The preliminary discussion was conducted to identify the missions of science
and technology that would play an important role in drawing up a picture of future society.
''They reviewed the mission of science and technology, and selected 24 priority issues (National Institute of Science and Technology policy, 2009).
The results of the preliminary discussion clearly indicated the importance of systematic integration in other words, science and technology to be embedded in society as a socialized system.
With the discussion above and the dramatic changes occurring inside and outside Japan as a backdrop,
the 9th Foresight exercise narrowed down the course of actions, in terms of scientific and technological challenges, into the following four global or national challenges:
1. central player in the scientific and technological arena; 2. sustainable growth through green innovation; 3. successful model for healthy-aging society;
and it has been used in Japan as a technique for large-scale questionnaires targeted at experts in science and technology since 1971.
and technology from the viewpoint of‘‘what should be done from now on''to resolve global or national challenges,
and what kind of science and technology will be expected to contribute to realize them. Participants included citizens, researchers, business persons,
and technology that achieve innovation success to resolve challenges in the future. However, investigative studies that are implemented in parallel do not give a comprehensive and panoramic view.
and Technology information for analysis is obtained from the Delphi survey and scenario building by group work in the 9th Foresight exercise.
and technology because they are considered complementary to each other also in regard to perspectives of development in science and technology.
Delphi deals with a variety of areas of science, technology and society, and therefore it contains events that are expected to make an implicit contribution
and technology for addressing the challenges, looking at things holistically. However neither the relationship among events nor the necessary coordination or cooperation among them is mentioned.
Furthermore, Delphi rarely refers to the application of established technologies, tending instead to cover leading-edge technologies.
On the other hand, scenario gives sufficient discussion on scientific and technological events that make a direct contribution to the challenges,
considering a variety of related factors. It also refers to the application of established technologies and collaboration possibilities among technologies.
However it cannot give a comprehensive view and define priorities for the whole country. All the information from scenario building is dependent on each theme.
and base or general-purpose technologies tend to have little chance of being mentioned. 3. 2 Procedure of combination Text mining is employed to combine information from two sources, i e.
and technology for realizing innovation for solutions to the challenges. The procedure is shown in Figure 2. 4. Expected innovation 4. 1 Relations between Delphi topics and scenarios On average,
The scenarios that contain many highly scored topics can be considered to offer a greater scope for contributions from science and technology.
''In terms of these themes, the importance of each scientific and technological event has gained already a common understanding among those concerned.
and technology can offer. Figure 2 The procedure of analysis VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 11 4. 2 Overall view Relations between the scenarios
This implies that the areas that are conducive to the realization of energy-and-environment related future visions gathered much attention from experts in a variety of technological disciplines.
where science and technology are expected to make great contribution because a lot of Delphi topics are related closely.
I. Other elements that possibly assume a high level of importance come from such areas as fundamental technology (e g.
resources, and environment 01-D Energy-relateda 03-H Industrial bio-nanotechnology related to energy and environment 05-A Geo-diagnosis technologyb 05-B
Space and ocean management technology (including observations) a 06-A Nuclear energyb 06-D Renewable energyb 06-C Fossil energy 06-H Efficient power
and CCS 08-C Lifestyle and environment 08-G Evaluation of and countermeasures to global warming 08-I Technology for urban waste minimization/material circulation for environmental conservation
water and soil/circulative use technology for water resources 10-F Energy, resources, and environmenta Health and medical care 03-B Applied bio-nanotechnology 03-E Medical treatment (exogenous factor, metabolic disease,
and psychiatric disease) 04-A Medical treatment aiming at safety and securityb 04-B Creation of new medical technologyb 04-C Development of predictive and preventive medicine Others 02-D Socialization of informationa 02-A Cloud computing 02
-B New principle for information and communication 05-G Space technologies (including space medicine) 09-A Base materials for nanotechnologyb 09-B Output (device, systemization and applied
technology) b 10-E Globalization, value-adding and market creation 10-G Unpopularity of science and engineering, human resource problem,
the declining birth rate and aging population 11-B Management to prevent the decrease of competitiveness in the international market development of internationally competent people,
The collaboration of these base technologies including ICT with mainstream innovation will be discussed further in the next section. 5. Common factors for future innovation As stated in section 3,
and technology that have the potential to make innovation happen and contribute to the solution of four challenges directly or indirectly.
This section discusses how base technologies in common are expected to become engaged in the two potentialities. 5. 1 Examination from positions of key areas As shown in Table I,
which indicates that innovative progress will be made in health and medical care through collaboration with ICT and management technology.
this indicates that these areas will play a role as a general-purpose technology or as a source of cutting-edge technology providing ground-level support to the concrete contributions of other technologies.
Figure 5 Relation between directions of future innovation and base technology areas VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 15 5. 2 Examination of relationship between scenario descriptions
including base technologies, are expected to have a great effect in solving four challenges. Another focus is Delphi topics in the key areas categorized as‘‘Others''in Table I that is, the topics in Panels 2, 5, 9, 10,11, and 12.
Regarding base or common technologies related to ICT (Panel 2) and to earth/space (Panel 5),
whereas when it comes to technologies related to hard and soft infrastructure (Panel 11 and 12),
The extent of expected diversity in science and technology depends on scenario themes and the extent of relation to scenario themes depends on scientific or technological fields.
and technology is indispensable for discussing the desired future. 6. Conclusion To bring about innovation in society through the effective use of the fruits of science
They provided information about scientific and technological possibilities and promoting factors toward specific social goals as well as the potential of each local region.
and scenario to get a whole picture of science and technology toward the desired future. Green-related areas and life-related areas define the major directions of our future efforts toward realization of the desired future.
European commission (2004), Converging technologies Shaping the Future of European Societies, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2009), Mapping Foresight:
Driving Towards Sustainable growth and Quality Jobs, Executive Office of the President, National Economic Council, Office of Science and Technology policy, WASHINGTON DC.
Government of Japan (2001), The 2nd Science and Technology Basic Plan, Government of Japan, Tokyo.
Government of Japan (2006), The 3rd Science and Technology Basic Plan, Government of Japan, Tokyo.
Government of Japan (2011), The 4th Science and Technology Basic Plan, Government of Japan, Tokyo.
integration of technology roadmapping and the Delphi method'',International Journal of Technology intelligence and Planning, Vol. 4 No. 2, pp. 184-200.
Research in Engineering science & Technology, University of Manchester, Manchester. Mietzner, D. and Reger, G. 2005),‘Advantages and disadvantages of scenario approaches for strategic foresight'',International Journal of Technology intelligence and Planning, Vol. 1 No. 2, pp. 220-39.
National Economic Council (2011), Strategy for American Innovation: Securing our Economic growth and Prosperity, National Economic Council, Council of economic advisors, Office of Science and Technology policy, WASHINGTON DC.
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2009),‘Emerging fields in science and technology for the 4th Science and Technology Basic Plan'',Research Material No. 168, National Institute of Science and Technology policy, Tokyo.
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2010),‘The 9th Science and Technology foresight'',NISTEP Report No. 140-142, National Institute of Science and Technology policy, Tokyo.
National science Foundation (2002),‘Converging technologies for improving human performance'',National science Foundation, Arlington VA. National science Foundation (2005),‘Managing nano-bio-info-cogno innovations:
converging technology society'',National science Foundation, Arlington, VA. Popper, R. 2008),‘How are selected foresight methods?''''Foresight, Vol. 10 No. 6, pp. 62-89.
Corresponding author Yoshiko Yokoo can be contacted at: yokoo@nistep. go. jp PAGE 18 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
and technology, including some that use a mission-oriented approach within the framework of societal needs defined by the so-called‘‘High-tech Strategy''.
the identification of potential constraints that might stem from economical, technological or societal implications, an assessment of the relevance for basic education and advanced training as well as the consideration of ethical and legal aspects.
of the High-tech Strategy. Forward-looking Projects are designed to map out scientific and technological developments over a period of ten to 15 years in specific areas
a panel of high-ranking experts that advises on the implementation of the High-tech Strategy. The final, seventh, step of the Strategic dialogue resulted in a pragmatic vision for a‘‘CO2-neutral,
and innovation system to assess the implications of new technologies and wider socioeconomic changes (Martin and Johnston, 1999;
and Technology policy-makers and politicians are keen to find an answer to the challenging question of where they should be investing their resources to produce economic, environmental and social dividends.
In the European union as in many other parts of the world research, technology and innovation policies and programmes have adopted, to a large extent,
Specifically, the issue identified was the effective marshalling of research, technological and innovation funds to support broad goals for Europe.
technological and innovation knowledge geared towards large challenges. It calls on European institutions and Member States to focus European research on the major challenges facing our world.
A further milestone in the explicit recognition of directing research and innovation resources towards grand challenges came with the publication of a report on the European Technology platforms by DG Research (European commission DG Research, 2010.
and contextualise the principal themes and questions raised for the nation as a whole and the more specific dimensions of research, technology and enterprise.
Global drivers and trends analysis. The first main phase of the exercise consisted of an initial analysis of global drivers and trends across the PESTLE categories (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legislative, and Environmental.
4. converging technologies; 5. increasing pace of change; and 6. energy security. Figure 1 shows the distribution of drivers and trends on an impact versus likelihood matrix.
For illustrative purposes, an example is given of a high impact and high likelihood trend (converging technologies; there is one example of a high impact
Although there was understandably a strong focus on‘‘hard''research in science, engineering and technology, within several challenges there was also a clear role for social sciences and humanities.
mobility and higher education Learning as a lifelong behaviour Vocational skills gaps Technological development Converging technologies The increasing pace of technological change Technology platforms Open innovation models Death of intellectual property?
impact trends (identified by roundtable participants) Ten trends most likely to happen Ten highest impact trends Rise of BRICS Converging technologies Ageing populations Knowledge economy Global population
growth Energy security Renewable energy Renewable energy Peak oil Global trade falters Converging technologies Increasing pace of change Increasing pace of change Open innovation
and exploit‘‘smart grid''technologies to ensure efficiency, distribution and competitiveness Innovation and companies Ireland has a relatively modest‘‘home''market
but is challenged increasingly by the pace of technological change, globally mobile investors and concerns within the country regarding the scale and constant need for significant research investments Does Ireland have in place the enabling mechanisms
and technology and to enable smaller Irish companies to absorb and then exploit research results? Gain a broader understanding of creativity and innovation and their role in the application of research within enterprises and more broadly across society Establish better ways of judging
and engineering and science skills PAGE 36 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 The project undertaken provided a national view on grand challenges that had been discussed in other settings.
In terms of engineering science and technology, it was a relatively simple process to identify possible responses from the research and innovation systems at a national level, through addressing known gaps in capacity and building on emerging areas of strength.
A Strategic View of the European research area, First Report of the European research area Board 2009, European commission, Brussels. European commission DG Research (2010),‘Strengthening the role of European Technology platforms in addressing Europe
Foresight in science and technology policy co-ordination'',Futures, Vol. 31 No. 6, pp. 527-45.
and technology (S&t priorities should be complemented by the identification of key long-term demand for resources and reshaped management systems.
Keywords Priority-setting, Russia, Natural resources, Long term planning, Foresight project planning, Innovation, Technology led strategy, Sciences Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction In recent years
technology and innovation (S&t&i) priorities have become an integral part of government policy making in almost all developed countries,
In the last ten to 15 years, Japan (National Institute of Science and Technology policy, 2010), Finland (University of Joensuu, 2010), the UK (Loveridge et al.
Additional information concerning assessing the required resources (human, financial, technological, etc. and a description of specific innovation projects was required for policy decision-making.
B estimation of possible timeframes for major S&t breakthroughs; B evaluation of the position of Russian R&d centres in the international S&t landscape;
and B determination of the most relevant steps to be taken to support the development and commercialisation of science and technology.
PAGE 42 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 This study was based on another foresight study devoted to the identification of national S&t priorities and a corresponding list of critical technologies (Sokolov, 2008b.
The following criteria were used to make the list of critical technologies: B contribution to increasing the GDP growth rate;
and specific projects were selected on the basis of their relevance to the identified critical technologies. The structure of this study has three levels.
(which correspond to National S&t priorities), 56 technology areas at the second level (which correspond to critical technologies) and more than 900 topics.
The thematic areas include: B Information and Telecommunication systems; B Industry of Nanosystems and Materials; B Living Systems;
B Power Engineering and Energy Saving; B Manufacturing Systems; and B Safety. The thematic area‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''covers the following five technology areas:
1. environmental monitoring and forecasting (atmosphere and hydrosphere; 2. estimating resources and forecasting (lithosphere and biosphere;
Eighty-two topics were formulated for these five thematic areas, in the form of briefly described S&t results, promising technologies or innovation products (e g.‘‘
B expected timeframe for developing technological solutions; B current level of Russian R&d; B world leader country;
Russian experts considered the most important topics in this area to be accelerated‘‘Technologies for and efficient recovery of damaged lands, landscapes and biodiversity,
''‘Technologies for environmentally safe processing and recycling of consumer and industrial waste''and‘‘Geoinformation database of forest fires in Russia, allowing monitoring of fire situations in real time''.
2030 was based on the FS1 results and also on a renewed version of the National S&t priorities and Critical technologies.
It included three critical technologies (at the second thematic level: B prevention and liquidation of environmental pollution, monitoring
and B technologies for processing and utilising anthropogenic substances and wastes. The third level of‘‘Rational Use of Nature Resources''covers 40 technology groups,
which were identified on the basis of the most important and well-developed FS1 topics combined into extended technology FS2 groups.
Since the main objectives of the study changed against the first cycle, the methodology was adjusted also properly.
two top scores) Technology area 1 Technologies for accelerated and efficient recovery of damaged lands, landscapes and biodiversity 97.6 2019 Contributing to dealing with social problems (76.3
percent) Improving positions on international markets (31.6 percent) Technologies for environmentally safe mining 2 Technologies for environmentally safe processing
and recycling of consumer and industrial waste 96.7 2016 Contributing to dealing with social problems (79.5 percent) Improving positions on international markets (40.9 percent) Technologies for processing
and affected area) 96.1 2014 Contributing to dealing with social problems (73.8 percent) Improving positions on international markets (47 5 percent) Technologies for forecasting the state of the lithosphere
oil-and gas-saturated zones 95.7 2018 Improving positions on international markets (78.1 percent) Contributing to dealing with social problems (25 percent) Technologies for environmentally safe mining
5 Technologies for efficient decontamination of polluted territories using plants and biomaterials 94.0 2018 Contributing to dealing with social problems (82.6 percent) Improving positions on international markets (50 percent) Technologies for processing
and utilising anthropogenic substances and wastes Note: acalculated as (No. Of high*100 þ no: of Moderate*50 þ no:
This index shows the relative importance of each topic according to aggregated expert opinion VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 45 New objectives of the study also demanded adjusting evaluation criteria for the technology groups (accordingly to the FS1 results.
and evaluation criteria for emerging markets for products based on technologies developed within these technology groups. A number of criteria were used to assess these groups,
including R&d level, contribution to innovative relevant projects, availability of human resources (researchers, engineers and technicians), required level of funding and fixed assets.
For each technology group, scores for all of the criteria mentioned above were obtained in the course of the study.
Table II Characteristics of most developed technology groups in the‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''thematic area Technology group Index of R&d levela Cumulative effectb Monitoring and control systems,
''This index shows the cumulative effect of each group evaluating technology according to aggregated expert opinion Figure 1 Support measures for‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''PAGE 46 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1
and technology groups with the best prospects and conditions for further development were identified, together with the most promising markets (and their specific segments)
technological roadmaps for several high-technology market segments where Russia has the possibility to improve its positions were developed,
and in the FS2 framework technology groups were assessed (identified on the basis of the most important and well-developed FS1 topics).
The FS2 criteria for the evaluation of technology groups were identified mostly on the basis of the results of FS1 (see Table I). National S&t Foresight:
B key areas to strengthen positions of Russian producers in global markets on the basis of technological advantages;
B revision of National S&t priorities and Critical technologies; Figure 3 The general scheme of the structure of projects interrelation VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 49 B design of large-scale innovation projects;
financial and infrastructure) for the most important and well-developed topics and their market prospects FS2 The evaluation of technology groups (as combinations of the most important and well-developed topic on the basis of the results of FS1) by the following criteria:
contribution to innovative relevant projects, availability of human resources (researchers, engineers and technicians), required level of funding, fixed assets and others Estimation of resources and risks List
revision of National S&t priorities and Critical technologies: design of large-scale innovation projects identification of research projects to be funded within federal and sectoral goal-oriented S&t programmes designing sectoral strategies for industries regional priorities for innovation development priorities
The results of the FS2 project included the evaluation of technology groups and the identification of those that had the best prospects and conditions for further advancement;
Assessment of personnel, financial and technological requirements, and the potential for further S&t development identified the need to increase appropriate investments significantly.
updating the Union's approach in the context of the Lisbon strategy'',COM (2003) 112, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2004a),‘Science and technology, the key to Europe's future guidelines for future European union
policy to support research'',COM (2004) 353, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2004b),‘Stimulating technologies for sustainable development:
an environmental technologies action plan for the European union'',COM (2004) 38, European commission, Brussels. Loveridge, D.,Georghiou, L. and Nedeva, M. 1995),‘United kingdom Foresight programme, Delphi survey'',PREST
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2010),‘The 9th Science and Technology foresight Survey contribution of science and technology to future society.
The 9th Delphi survey'',NISTEP Report No. 140, National Institute of Science and Technology policy, Tokyo. National research council Canada (2005),‘Looking forward:
Sokolov, A. 2008b),‘Russian critical technologies 2015'',Collection of EFMN Briefs, Part 1, Directorate-General for Research Co-operation, European commission, Brussels. Sokolov, A. 2009),‘The future
of science and technology: the Delphi study results'',Foresight, Vol. 10 No. 3 (in Russian. United nations Industrial Development Organization (2007), Technology foresight Summit Workbook, United nations Industrial Development Organization, Budapest.
and technology (S&t) changes and shifts in the competitive environment for the preparation of strategic development in an organization,
and associating the future technology themes in foresight reports with a state of the-art-the art technology classification system. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrative method for systematically clustering,
analyzing and visualizing the path for technology development and transformation. Design/methodology/approach Delphi topics related to sustainable energy were collected from strategic foresight reports of Japan
and used as sources for future technology themes analysis. A standard mapping taxonomy based on international patent classification system was used to map out the technology concept described in these future technology themes.
Technology interactions can be identified through a causal effect analysis during the mapping, and the results among selected countries are cross-compared
Also, this classification framework can provide a bridge for linking with current technology performance such as patent productivity
and competitive technology intelligence by utilizing the results deriving from the former as targets for analysis
Keywords Strategic technology foresight, Competitive technology intelligence, Delphi topic analysis, International patent classification system, Sustainable energy, Innovation, Forward planning Paper type Research paper 1
Te-Yi Chan and Cheng-Hua Ien are based in the Trend Analysis Division, Science and Technology policy Research and Information Center (STPI), National Applied research Laboratories (NARL), Taipei
Also, China has used the result of foresight for selection of their critical technologies. Even in some small countries in Europe like Austria
Competitive intelligence is also important to retain a dynamic understanding of the technology trajectories of the surrounding industrial environment (Nelson, 1997.
Therefore, it is not possible generate a viable and appropriate technology strategy without a perception of the changing technical capability of our own industry and that of related industries (Powell and Bradford, 2000.
Given the importance of investing in the right technology for companies and staying abreast of technological change, acquiring an advanced understanding of technology and its potential market shifting effects,
competitive technology intelligence (CTI) has been generated and popularized (Calof and Smith, 2010). In general, CTI is competitive intelligence within the R&d arena (Herring, 1993;
Ashton et al. 1994). ) It has been defined as:..business sensitive information on external scientific or technological threats, opportunities,
or developments that have the potential to affect a company's competitive situation. Ashton and Klavans (1997) also defined three basic objectives for CTI activities:
and technology (S&t) activities in time to permit appropriate responses; and 3. to anticipate and understand S&t-related shifts or trends in the competitive environment as a preparation for organizational planning and strategic development.
A new integrated domain strategic intelligence and foresight on technology (SIFT), a combination of CTI and Strategic technology foresight (STF) was proposed recently by Calof and Smith (2010).
where the emphasis VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 55 is not only on the technologies of the future
During the input phase or preparatory phase of many different foresight activities, technology or research topic mapping by reviewing existing foresight activity is becoming more and more popular.
''which is a large-scale technological foresight study that was designed to benchmark current information society technologies (ISTS) and develop strategies for future ISTS
and evaluate worldwide technology trends during the preparatory studies (Aichholzer, 2001). In addition, after the Delphi Austria foresight process, the results of the Austria Technology Delphi were reclassified also according to the standard classifications of industry
i e. the NACE classification in order to facilitate their use by industrial economists and policy makers and to propose an explanation of the old structures/high performance paradox (Tichy, 1999;
The mapping dimension of EFMN, especially for the science and technology field and socioeconomic sectors which the collected foresight activity explicitly address, are fingerprinted based on the Frascati Manual classification and the NACE code classification,
and niches within technology trends where Austria might find opportunities to achieve leadership within the next 15 years (Aichholzer, 2001).
and then technology trends can be identified easily based on the mapped result. In this paper, the content of the Delphi topics was mapped according to a patent classification system
The IPC, established by the Strasbourg Agreement of 1971, provides for a hierarchical system of language-independent symbols for the classification of patents and utility models according to the different areas of technology to
, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Japan The Ministry of Science and Technology of the Republic of korea Ministry of Science and Technology agency or organization responsible for the foresight activity Science and Technology foresight Center, National Institute
of Science and Technology policy (NISTEP) Foresight and Strategy Planning Team, Korean Institute of S&t Evaluation and Planning (KISTEP), The Science
and Technology policy Research institute (STEPI) Technology foresight Research team, National research Center for Science and Technology for Development Time horizon 2035 2030 2020 Original category Energy and resources Energy
In order to keep the IPC codes up to date with the progress of technology development, IPC codes are revised continuously
Patent documents have long been regarded as a useful source for technology management because they include technical and application/commercial information.
Patents are oriented towards the legal protection of technologies and therefore the classification of patents is based on technologies or products that use specific technologies (Schmoch, 2008).
There is long history in economics of the use of patent data to understand the process of invention and innovation (Griliches, 1990;
Also, patent documents are used widely as a source for technology forecasting, CTI and for analysis of technology convergence (Kayal, 1999;
statistics regarding the code or advanced analysis can be done easily to compare development or the trajectory among different technology domains.
as a classification system for the state-of-the-art technology, provides a route for linking mid-to long-term technology,
as described in the technology vision of a Delphi topic, to the present or near future technological trajectory.
which the technology is ensured to be feasibility, while Delphi topics describe a technology that can be in any stage between research exploration to commercialization,
with the description being relatively short. In addition, the content of Delphi topics depends on the time horizon of the foresight activities.
and hence the technology trends provided by the scanned Delphi survey will provide a long-term view while the result from patent analysis for CTI or for forecasting provide a short-term view.
especially the technology/product term should be extracted, and the extracted or identified keywords are mapped for their corresponding IPC code.
The more specific the technology/product keyword described in the Delphi topic the lower level of code (i e. more digits of the code) can be given to these keywords.
Select topics related to sustainable energy based on the original category in the foresight reports and confirmed by domain experts Step 3 Identify the technology/product keywords
or above) for these technology/product related terms in each of the Delphi topics analyzed Step 5 Distinguish with the identified IPC codes as a source
or an application of technology Step 6 Convert these IPC codes to the WIPO technology classification based on the WIPO IPC-Technology Concordance Table Step 7 Map the technology distribution
WIPO technology classification and demonstrate by a matrix table or social network analysis PAGE 58 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 For converting
and aggregating to the 35 WIPO technology classifications in Step 6, IPC subclass/main-group level mapping
To get more information on technology interaction from the Delphi topic descriptions, especially for the identification of technology linkages or causal effects,
the keywords and their corresponding IPC codes are distinguished between source/application technologies in Step 5. In Step 6,
In addition, Table IV shows part of the WIPO IPC-Technology Concordance Table utilized during Step 6. After each Delphi topic is mapped to the IPC code
and aggregated to the WIPO technology field, the linkage or interaction between the technologies can be demonstrated by a matrix table,
or can be visualized in advance by social network analysis. 2. 3. 3 Examples of Delphi topic mapping.
especially from keyword extraction, IPC code mapping, source/application technology identification, and mapped result aggregation to WIPO technology classification.
The Delphi topic in the example is from Japan, and involves‘‘Polymer electrolyte fuel cells for automobile use''.
''By using the IPC subclass code for mapping, the IPC Table III WIPO technology classification No.
Field 1 Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy 2 Audiovisual technology 3 Telecommunications 4 Digital communication 5 Basic communication processes 6 Computer technology 7 IT methods
for management 8 Semiconductors 9 Optics 10 Measurement 11 Analysis of biological materials 12 Control 13 Medical technology 14 Organic fine chemistry
metallurgy 21 Surface technology, coating 22 Micro-structure and nanotechnology 23 Chemical engineering 24 Environmental technology 25 Handling 26 Machine tools 27 Engines,
Furniture, games 34 Other consumer goods 35 Civil engineering Source: Schmoch (2008) VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 59 code C08g covering‘‘polymer electrolyte''is identified,
the source/application technology for the Delphi topics are identified through causal effect analysis, namely the source IPC code and the application IPC code are distinguished by the judgment of a domain expert.
the IPC codes identified are converted into the WIPO technology classification as part of the Concordance Table shown in above Table IV.
Table IV Examples of WIPO IPC technology concordance table Field IPC codes 1. Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy F21#,H01b, H01c, H01f
The time horizons surveyed for Delphi topics in Japan are‘‘time of technological realization''and‘‘time of social application''.
which technology that can be realized before the year 2020 is preselected. Therefore, Delphi topics with a realization time before the year 2020,
which is‘‘time of technological realization before 2020''for Japan, ‘‘time of international realization before 2020''for South korea and all Delphi topics from China, are used as the main target for analysis and for comparison.
South korea and China. 3. 1 Mapping technology interactions in Delphi topics 3. 1. 1 Summary result of the mapping in three countries.
The mapping results are demonstrated using the 35 technology fields suggested by WIPO. The summary results of the mapping for technology interaction prospected by Japan,
South korea and China is shown in Figure 2. The y axis denotes the source technology and the x axis denotes the application technology.
Interactions between source and application technology that can be identified in Delphi topics in either the Japan,
South korea or China reports are labeled with symbols. Different symbol represent different meanings. For example,‘‘O''means the technology interaction can be identified simultaneously in Japan (JP), South korea (KR) and China (CN),
'''means the technology interaction can be identified only in Japan (JP) and China (CN), and so on. Interactions within the technology field are shown not in Figure 2. By viewing the union result of the mapping from the application technology side, conventional energy technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
energy) is a hot technology application before the year 2020, where the possible source technologies comprise technologies 7 (IT methods for management),
12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 23 (Chemical engineering), 24 (Environmental technology
), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus), 31 (Mechanical elements) and 35 (Civil engineering.
Technology 19 (Basic materials chemistry) is prospected also by these three countries as second hot application technology before the year 2020,
where the possible source technologies comprise technologies 14 (Organic fine chemistry), 15 (Biotechnology), 23 (Chemical engineering), 24 (Environmental technology), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus), 32
(Transport) and 35 (Civil engineering). The third hot application technology before the year 2020 is technology 32 (Transport),
and the possible Table V Realization time distribution of Delphi topic in Japan, South korea and China Before 2020 2021-2030 After 2031 Time horizon Topics Ratio (percent
) Topics Ratio (percent) Topics Ratio (percent) Japan 26 74.3 6 17.1 3 8. 6 South korea 75 98.7 1 1. 3
0 0 China 83 100 0 0 0 0 VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 61 source technologies are derived from technologies 1
(Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 12 (Control), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) and 35 (Civil engineering.
From the source technology side, technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) is the hottest source technology for application to other technologies before 2020,
where the possible application technologies comprise of technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 3 (Telecommunications), 8 (Semiconductors), 10 (Measurement), 13 (Medical technology), 20 (Materials
, metallurgy), 23 (Chemical engineering), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus), 32 (Transport) and 35 (Civil engineering). Technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) is prospected also as a hot source technology, especially by South korea,
and the corresponding application technologies comprise technologies 3 (Telecommunications), 6 (Computer technology), 13 (Medical technology), 23 (Chemical engineering), 26 (Machine tools), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines), 32
(Transport), 34 (Other consumer goods) and 35 (Civil engineering). Also, technology 23 (Chemical engineering) is prospected as a source technology for other seven technologies,
comprising technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 13 (Medical technology), 14 (Organic fine chemistry), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy
), 21 (Surface technology, coating) and 24 (Environmental technology). When technology 24 (Environmental technology) is as source technology,
the prospected application technologies will be technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) and 35 (Civil engineering).
The overlapping result for technology interaction mapped by the Delphi topics from the three countries can also be seen in Figure 2. The overlapped interactions identified among the three countries include source technology 12 (Control) to application technology
1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), technology 15 (Biotechnology) to technology 1 Figure 2 Summary result of the mapping in three countries PAGE 62 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 (Electrical machinery
, apparatus, energy), technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) to technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), technology 35 (Civil engineering) to technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy),
and technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) to technology 32 (Transport. The keywords extracted from the content of the Delphi topics that link with the overlapping result of the mapping are summarized in Table VI. 3. 1. 2 Mapping result of Japan.
From the mapping result of Japan, nine Delphi topics of the total 26 Delphi topics (34.6 percent), show interaction within single technology.
Interaction across technologies can be deduced from the remaining 17 Delphi topics, and the interactions are demonstrated by a directional social network analysis (SNA) with a tool named Nodexl 1 in Figure 3
. If more than one interaction can be deduced from a single Delphi topic content, more than one linkage will be given.
A total of 20 interactions were identified from these 17 Delphi topics. The Delphi topics that show only interaction within a single technology are demonstrated by a loop symbol.
Table VI Keywords of Delphi topics that link with the overlapping result of the mapping in the technology interaction Source technology Application technology Country Key words in Delphi topics 12
(Control) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Energy management technology/electricity storage technology/efficiently use distributed generation;
new grid technology/micro grids/stability of distributed generation South korea Distributed electric power/solar power China Ultra-large scale/power system security and defense;
advanced and reliable distribution network and system technology for electricity; distributed power generation systems; next-generation SCADA technology;
heat, electricity, cooling cogeneration/building use 15 (Biotechnology) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Artificial photosynthesis technology/solar energy conversion efficiency;
technology for electric power generation/synthetic fuels manufacturing/gasification of biomass South korea Verified in vivo photosynthetic/organisms convert energy;
bio-energy/battery technology China Biofuel; biomass gasification power generation 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Large capacity combined cycle power generation
/large scale gas turbines; micro cogeneration systems/residential use; ceramic micro gas turbines/thermal efficiency; ocean-thermal conversion/electric power generation South korea Cogeneration fuel cell/residential use;
ocean energy; very large (5mw) wind power generation equipment design; ocean energy/seawater desalination China Integrated gasification combined cycle 35 (Civil engineering) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Large-area thin-film solar cells;
conversion efficiency South korea Solar and fuel cell power system China Hydropower river basin development with complex conditions; large and very large grid-connected/photovoltaic power plant development in desert 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) 32 (Transport) Japan Polymer electrolyte fuel cells
/vehicle use South korea Material for battery/electric vehicles or transportation; fuel cell/vehicle use; hybrid power system/vehicle use China Hybrid power system VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 63 As shown in Figure 3, technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
energy) is targeted the main application technology by other technologies before the year 2020. The source technologies comprise technologies 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 24 (Environmental
technology), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) and 35 (Civil engineering. The most intensive linkage of the interaction is source technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) to application technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy.
The second most intensive linkage of the interaction is source technology 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers) to application technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy.
3. 1. 3 Mapping result of South korea. In South korea, 25 of the total 75 mapped Delphi topics (33.3 percent) show only interaction within a single technology.
Interaction across technologies can be deduced from the remaining 50 Delphi topics, and the deduced interactions are demonstrated by a directional social network analysis (SNA) in Figure 3. In total,
57 linkages are identified from these 50 Delphi topics. A shown in Figure 4, the technology interactions of the Delphi topics before the year 2020 are much more divergent.
From the application technology point of view, technology 1 (Electrical machinery apparatus, energy) receives technologies from technologies 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 23 (Chemical engineering), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus), 31 (Transport
) and 35 (Civil engineering), especially technologies 23 (Chemical engineering) and 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) show higher linkage with technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy.
Technology 19 (Basic materials chemistry) also shows as a hot application technology, the source technologies include technology 15 (Biotechnology), 23 (Chemical engineering), 24 (Environmental technology), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus), 32 (Transport) and 35 Figure 3 Technology
interactions across WIPO technologies for Delphi topics from Japan PAGE 64 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 (Civil engineering).
Technology 23 (Chemical engineering) shows higher linkages with technology 19 (Basic materials chemistry. Technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) can also be a source technology;
the application technologies comprise technologies 3 (Telecommunications), 6 (Computer technology), 13 (Medical technology), 23 (Chemical engineering), 26 (Machine tools), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines), 32 (Transport
), 34 (Other consumer goods) and 35 (Civil engineering. Technologies 32 (Transport) and 35 (Civil engineering) especially show higher linkages with technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy.
Technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) is also a hot source technology; the application technologies comprise of technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 3 (Telecommunications), 8 (Semiconductors), 10 (Measurement), 13 (Medical technology), 20 (Materials, metallurgy
), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus) and 32 (Transport. The linkages are especially more intensive on technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 10 (Measurement) and 32 (Transport.
3. 1. 4 Mapping result of China. In China, 37 of the total 83 mapped Delphi topics (44.6 percent) show only interaction within a single technology.
Interaction across technologies can be deduced from the remaining 46 Delphi topics, and the deduced interactions are demonstrated by a directional social network analysis (SNA) in Figure 4. In total 50 linkages are identified from these 46 Delphi topics.
As shown in Figure 5, technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) is a hot application technology.
Source technologies comprise technologies 7 (IT methods for management), 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry
polymers), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 23 (Chemical engineering), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus) and 35 (Civil
Figure 4 Technology interactions across WIPO technologies for Delphi topics from South korea VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 65 engineering;
and 12 (Control) and 35 (Civil engineering) show especially higher linkages with technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy.
Another hot application technology is technology 35 (Civil engineering. The possible source technologies comprise technologies 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 25 (Handling) and 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines;
12 (Control) and 25 (Handling) reveal especially higher linkages. Technology 12 (Control) is a hot source technology in China.
The possible application technologies comprise technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus), 32 (Transport) and 35 (Civil engineering),
but technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) and 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus) reveal higher linkages.
Another hot source technology is technology 23 (Chemical engineering. The application technologies comprise of technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 14 (Organic fine chemistry), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy) and 24
(Environmental technology; technology 24 (Environmental technology) especially has more linkages with technology 23 (Chemical engineering. 3. 2 Mapping interactions across technologies from the top 25 percent important Delphi topics in each country Since the foresight results of these three countries were intended to be used for reference in priority setting
or in the R&d agenda setting process, it may therefore be strategically important to identify what kind of technologies are rated as important for these three countries;
this may provide a CTI value. Therefore, the top 25 percent important Delphi topics before 2020 are selected according to the foresight result in each country,
and the deduced linkages for the selected topics are demonstrated also by a directional social network analysis (SNA).
The analyzed results for Japan, South korea and China are demonstrated in Figures 6-8. In Figure 6 (Japan's result),
seven Delphi topics and ten linkages are identified. Most of the interactions are related to application technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, Figure 5 Technology interactions across WIPO technologies for Delphi topics from China PAGE 66
jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 energy. The important source technologies comprise technologies 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 24 (Environmental technology) and 35 (Civil engineering.
The content of the related Delphi topics contain‘‘Technology for electric power generation and synthetic fuels manufacturing using the gasification of coal, biomass,
and waste'',Polymer electrolyte fuel cells for automobile use, ''and‘‘Large-area thin-film solar cells with a conversion efficiency of at least 20 percent''.
''Other linkages are source technology 24 (Environmental technology) to application technology 20 (Materials, metallurgy), or source technology 25 (Handling) to 31 (Mechanical elements).
Technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) is interacted self. The content of the related Delphi topics contain‘‘CO2 recover, sequestration and storage technology'',Hydrogen supply infrastructure networks for fuel cell automobiles'',Geologic disposal technology for high-level radioactive waste,
''and‘‘Technology to drastically reduce waste through nuclear transformation of radionuclides in high-level nuclear waste''.
''In Figure 7 (South korea's result), 19 Delphi topics and 22 linkages are identified. One of the main focuses is technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
energy) since many other source technologies will contribute to technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) and simultaneously technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
energy) is also a means for application to other technologies. The source technologies contributing to technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
energy) comprise source technologies 12 (Control), 23 (Chemical engineering), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) and 35 (Civil engineering),
while the content of the Delphi topics contain‘‘Distributed power generation with energy conversion efficiency of more than 40 percent and large-scale solar power in practical use'',
''‘The commercialization of high efficiency and ultra-low price thin film solar Figure 6 Technology interactions across WIPO technologies in top 25 percent important Delphi topics from Japan
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 67 cells'',Solar and fuel cell power system in practical use,
''and‘‘Residential cogeneration fuel cells in practical use''.''The application technologies for source technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) comprise technologies 26 (Machine tools), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines), 32 (Transport), 34 (Other
consumer goods) and 35 (Civil engineering. Higher linkages are demonstrated in technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) to application technology 32 (Transport),
and the related Delphi topics contain‘‘Development of high energy density of the large battery materials for electric vehicles and various transportation use'',Fuel cell vehicles for practical use,
''and‘‘Hybrid power system with alternative energy in practical use''.''In the rest of the linkages, some technologies are interacted self,
examples being technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 24 (Environmental technology) and 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines),
and the related Delphi topics contain‘‘Verify the principle of superconductivity at room temperature'',High-efficiency power generation equipment (efficiency 90 percent) commercialization,
''‘Development of distributed power technology with large-scale use of alternative energy supply'',Development of low-cost and high-purity hydrogen mass production Technology'development of zero emission power generation system
combined energy plant, ''and‘‘Development nuclear waste processing method that can reduce the size of nuclear fuel after use
and effectively recycle and reuse''.''Other cross-interacted technologies include source technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) to application technology 10 (Measurement;
technologies 23 (Chemical engineering) and 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) to technology 13 (Medical technology; technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) to technology 20 (Materials, metallurgy;
and Figure 7 Technology interactions across WIPO technologies in top 25 percent important Delphi topics from South korea PAGE 68 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013
technology 24 (Environmental technology) to technology 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines. The related topics contain‘‘Development of bio-information technology that can use Terahertz in biomedical operation,
''‘Development of simulation technology than can simulate the interaction of living organism with micro-plasma for medical equipment'',The ultra-high-temperature air-cooled nuclear reactors in practical use
which can be used to generate clean energy the economic mass production of hydrogen, ''and‘‘Maximization of nuclear reactor safety/economic in operation, optimization of the new nuclear reactor design and efficiency of monitoring/lowering the risk by optimization and actively use of information technology''.
''The mapping distribution of the Delphi topics of China shows that about half of the important topics are interacted self (Figure 8;
examples include technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 19 (Basic materials chemistry) and 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines.
The content of these topics comprises‘‘Large-capacity long-distance transmission of electricity'',Deep-sea oil and gas mining'',Coal (direct, indirect) liquefaction,
''‘Coal gasification by pressurized fluidized bed'',deep coal mining technology'',advanced million-kilowatt pressurized water reactor technology'',Nuclear safety and radiation safety'',Chinese
prototype of fast reactor nuclear power plant design and verification technology'',High level radioactive waste geologic disposal technologies,
''and‘‘MW level wind turbine and the key technologies of main components and industrialization, ''‘Advanced spent fuel reprocessing technology,
''and‘‘Heavy-duty gas turbine technology''.''Meanwhile, technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) is a hot application technology.
The possible cross-interacted source technologies come from source technology 12 (Control), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), and 35 (Civil engineering.
The content of these topics comprise‘‘Large scale network security and defense system for electricity'',Effective supercritical/ultra supercritical power generation technology'',Key Figure 8 Technology interactions across WIPO
technologies in top 25 percent important Delphi topics from China VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 69 technology of solar cells,
''and‘‘Hydropower river basin development with complex conditions''.''In the rest of the linkages, technologies with cross interactions include source technology 23 (Chemical engineering) to application technology 24 (Environmental technology;
technology 19 (Basic materials chemistry) to technology 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus; and technologies 12 (Control) and 25 (Handling) to technology 35 (Civil engineering.
The content of these topics comprises‘‘Circulating fluidized bed flue gas desulfurization'',Coal gasification-based poly-generation technology'',Energy consumption analysis for construction and building environmental systems and energy saving optimization technology,
''and‘‘Low permeability reservoir to improve oil recovery''.''In summary, by mapping the important topics from the Delphi survey results of Japan, South korea and China,
differences in technology development focus or portfolio strategy can be identified. From Japan's result, technology development is focused more on using different source technologies to conventional energy technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy),
reflecting of the‘‘select ''and‘‘focus''technology strategy used in the 3rd Basic Plan on S&tof Japan.
South korea seems to be employing a different strategy; it focuses not only on possible source technologies to conventional energy technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy),
but also tries to explore the possibility for supplying technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) as an important source technology,
and it shows a convergent/divergent dual technology development strategy. In mapping of China's important topics, almost half show interactions within a single technology,
and technology 19 (Basic materials chemistry) shows a key position. Also, technology 23 (Chemical engineering) is emphasized especially in China's important topics,
and is to be used as a source technology to technology 24 (Environmental technology). This technology linkage reflects that the challenges faced by China,
i e. the environmental issues caused by the mass use of conventional energy such as coal, must be solved,
and the corresponding technology development will be an important priority. 4. Conclusion The main objective of this paper has been to address a structured analysis method.
The proposed method can help to identify future technology trajectory and interaction by mapping and associating the future technology themes described in strategic foresight reports from selected countries with a state of the-art-the art technology classification system.
The technology concept in future technology themes is mapped by the classification framework and the interaction between technologies is identified through a causal effect analysis. Similarities
and discrepancies in future technology options among countries are analyzed successfully, and important technology trajectories for each country are highlighted specifically
and compared. In summary, there are some operational and methodological benefits that can be provided by the integrative analytic method of this study.
One is to help solving the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies,
with the aim of anticipating future S&tchanges and shifts in the competitive environment. By providing a consistent classification framework
the mapping and comparison of future technology options from different countries/regions become more effective. Also, the method combines both the advantage of strategic technology foresight and competitive technology intelligence, by utilizing the results derived from the former as a target for analysis
but the analytic practice derived from the latter to identify the possible competitive or cooperative landscapes in the future.
When entering into the foresight phase, such kinds of research output can be used as a knowledge base for brainstorming among participants,
and help to building the desired vision and strategy for developing future technologies. Meanwhile from a resource-based strategic concept, this classification framework can provide a bridge to link the future technology themes with current technology performance such as patent productivity or quality,
or even with scientific performance, and can thus help in identifying the gaps between the probable future changes in S&tand current capabilities.
While some scientific literature databases have been reclassified by using IPC code, this PAGE 70 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 kind of capability gap identification becomes easier.
For example, The Inspec Database, produced by the Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET), contains records from the world's technical
and scientific literature and has been mapping its indexing schemes to the WIPO IPC scheme in order to assign IPC codes to relevant records since January 2010 (Vivavip, 2010).
In addition, since the IPC code provides a hierarchical framework for mapping future technology themes, demonstration of the future technology trajectory and intelligence in different level of technology scope is possible.
Therefore, not only policy makers at the national level but also researchers who are conducting a research agenda can use such a structured analysis result to see the future trends in their proper scope
and to check how they can position or respond to the future competitive landscape. However, there are some limitations for this study.
The result of the analysis is based on the foresight activities of three large Northeast Asian countries and some of the technology interactions are prospected differently by these three countries.
The difference in technology options or prospects may be derived from the different context of energy use
and specific intentions that these countries want to achieve. Therefore, regional characteristics may bias the results of the research.
This kind of bias may be compensated for by including opinions from other regions such as Europe or America.
Also, the IPC code has some limitations in mapping the content of Delphi topics in describing a system innovation in which technology
or product innovation are not the main focus, or in cases where the the Delphi topics describe a technology with vague scope.
Third, since the mechanism of incorporating of foresight results into research or development priorities is different in each country,
the technology intelligence demonstrated by this research still needs to be monitored and confirmed further by other complementary data or sources.
Note 1. Nodexl is an online free tool for social network analysis, which can be accessed at http://nodexl. codeplex. com/References Aichholzer, G. 2001),‘Delphi Austria:
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PAGE 72 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 About the authors Hai-Chen Lin is now an Associate Researcher at Science and Technology policy Research and Information Center (STPI),
hclin@stpi. narl. org. tw Dr Te-Yi Chan received BS, MS and Phd degrees in Computer Engineering from Chung Yuan Christian University
He is now an Associate Researcher at Science and Technology policy Research and Information Center (STPI),
and adopts these mechanisms to conduct research into science and technology development trends. His research interests include foresight, data mining,
and learning technologies. Cheng-Hua Ien received A MS degree in Food Science and Technology from Taiwan University in 1983.
She is now an Associate Researcher at Science and Technology policy Research and Information Center (STPI),
which is under the National Applied research Laboratories (NARL). Her research interests include foresight, technology roadmap, and patent analysis.
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