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http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Impacts and implications of futureorieente technology analysis for policy and decision making Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas & Ian Miles
Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas & Ian Miles (2009) Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 915-916, DOI:
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elaborated the underpinning scientific and technological bases, relations to emerging societal and industrial needs, with illustrations of future possibilities by way of concrete manifestations (such as innovations).
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http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes Per Dannemand Andersen a & Mads Borup a a Department of Management Engineering, Technical University
Per Dannemand Andersen & Mads Borup (2009) Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 917-932, DOI:
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8 november 2009,917 932 Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes Per Dannemand Andersen*and Mads Borup Department of Management Engineering
technology and innovation studies; socio-technical; public research organisatioons foresight; science and technology and innovation policy studies 1. Introduction The setting of priorities in science
and innovation policy is one of the most important rationales for implementing national foresight activities. Important users of this type of foresight activity are often national research and innovation councils,
and technology was formulated by Ben Martin as‘the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology,
and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 919 and the emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economical and social benefits'(Martin 1995).
cross-societal discussion of the future prospects for science and technology and with implementing the results of such discussions in priorities for public expenditures on research.
and objectives for foresight The rationale for carrying out public foresight exercises is often related to the political goal of increasing economical competitiveness by means such as technological or societal innovation.
the concepts of national innovation systems (NIS) and technology innovation systeem (TIS) are important in understanding how new technologies emerge
and suppliers of technology (i e. to influence the direction in which actors employ their resources);(
Foresight and similar future-oriented technology analysis methodds such as trend extrapolation, scenarios, Delphi analysis, focus groups, cross-impact analyses and roadmapping, can be found in traditional business-school
and discussed them in light of, for example, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment (Martino 1983; Millet and Honton 1991.
The fact that Delphi surveys often solely include point of views from scientists indicates that scientists in such surveey are expected to know about the future development of technology.
and lists of approaches and methood for foresight have been suggested by different authors in review articles on foresight and future-oriented technology assessment methods (Technology Futures analysis Methodsworking Group 2004).
Rather, foresight is a field of practice with origins in several other more or less established academic disciplines such as evolutionary economy, strategy, technology assessment or social studies of science, futures studies.
Most foresight practice in Europe has been focussed on public policy making and especially policy making in science and technology
since the 1960s from the first generation of technology-oriented forecasting to the current third-or fourth-generation activities that also include wider social dimensions (Reger 2001;
that of science, technology, economy and society in general. In the perspective of strategic positioning (Mintzberg, Ahlstrand,
The context of science is strategic research and emerging technologies, and it is economical and competitive (and not to better understand nature and humankind).
and the development of generic technologies, become determined by generic market structure of global research and technology.
This includes methods such as technology watching, trend analyses and the use of learning curves. As already mentioned, the idea of the rational decision has been challenged for decades by decision theorists.
The context is not related to any particular understanding of science or technological development but to powers and political interests in the affected areas of science and technology;
in this sense it is almost a Mode 1 understanding of science and technology; Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight
The council was located in the Danish research Agency under the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation,
However, in the first phase a number of Danish researchers in science and technology, who were not members of the council,
The vision papers were to cover all areas of science and technology research. The authors came primarily from public research institutiions and also from industry.
and discussed the different areas of research in science and technology, building on, among other things, the vision papers.
Therefore, the strategic areas can to some extent be seen as representing the main areas of research in science and technology,
Through these discussions, research consortia were defined as a type of funding in addition to existing instruments, such as engineering research centres, framework programmes and talent projects.
1) biotechnology and chemistry,(2) energy,(3) environment,(4) nanotechnology,(5) production and materials technology,(6) information systems,(7) simulation and, finally,(8) research consortia.
brief passages of text and boxes containing short examples of the use of science and technology research and quotes from well-known and highleeve industry representatives.
with the aim of inspiring them to spend more on science and technology. Whereas the earlier plans focused on‘internal'prioritisation and strategic action within the research council
and technology research can make to society. Earlier strategy plans for the Technical research Council, as well as plans for other research councils,
R&d on environmentally friendly energy production technologies. The PSO R&d programme was operated by the two electricity grid operators
A third funding source for energy research, a New energy and Environment Research programme, was established also in the period through the Strategic research Council, under the auspices of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation.
The selection of areas basically reflected Danish energy policy and its focus on environmentally friendly energyproduuctio technologies,
The selection of only four priority areas resulted in a stronger and narrower technology focus than the broader priority areas of the Energy research programme's earlier strategies.
First, work on hydrogen technology was initiated, an area with application to research on fuel cells. Second, strategy activities concerning energy-efficient technologies and biofuels were launched by the Danish energy authority.
In addition for the other priority areas of technology roadmap exercises were recommended as a follow-up activity. It was, in general,
There was a relatively strong network, both informal and formal, between the programme management and the established industrial and research actors in the field of energy technology.
Technollog and Innovation Partly the Confederation of Danish Industries Advisory Council for Energy Research Energy production companies Energy-technology companies Scientists Interest groupings/NGOS Target groups
Upward Government minister, parliamentary politicians Downward Programme Management system operators (PSO actors) Energy production companies Energy-technology companies Scientists Approaches Key scope Science
-oriented Technology-oriented and methods Time horizon 10 20 years 2008 2012 and 2030 Method, systematics and tools Invited vision papers Council discussions Council members'own
and technology this does not seem to have influenced significantly strategic thinking and strateggi processes in Danish research councils and research programmes.
In contrast, in the Energy research programme there seems to exist a more coherent understanding of strategy associated with developing new energy technologies.
supporting existing areas, the opposite of priority setting The strategy of new technologies: technology and not science-discipline-oriented The strategy of positions of strength:
underpinning priorities related to scientific strengths rather than future societal or industrial potentials The strategy of developing new production and consumption systems:
the strategy of (technological and scientific) territory: demarcation, e g. against natural science and the natural science research council Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 930 P. D. Andersen and M. Borup 4. Conclusion In contrast to basic funding for universities
priority-setting goes beyond selecting between areas of science and technology: to develop measures and instruments are also important issues in research strategies.
The strategy processes can benefit from better articulated expectations about future technologiies It is not enough to argue that a certain technology offers great opportunities for future commercial exploitation.
and Foresight section at thetechnical University of Denmark's Department for Management Engineering. His main areas of research are technology foresight, strategy in science and innovation, technological innovation, the interaction between industry and science,
and future energy technologies. He has headed and participated in numerous national and international studies. Mads Borup is a senior scientist at the Innovation systems
and Foresight section at the Technical University of Denmark's Department for Management Engineering. His areas of work are systems of innovation and governance of research and innovation in the fields of eco-innovation and energy innovation.
An important part of his work is also strategic foresight on environment and technology. Notes 1. The two electricity grid operators were at that time Eltra and Elkraft System.
New technology foresight, forecasting and assessment methods, 13 14 may, Seville, Spain. EU DG Research. 2005. Final Report.
In The approach to and the potential for new technology foresight, The Proceedings of an International Conference on Technology foresight, Tokyo, Japan. http://www. nistep. go. jp/achiev/ftx/eng/mat077e/html/mat077oe
the case of renewable energy technology in Sweden. In Technology and the market: demand, users and innovation, eds.
R. Coombs, K. Green, V. Walsh, and A. Richards. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Johnson, G, . and K. Scholes. 2002.
Foresight in science and technology. Technology analysis & Strategic management 7, no. 2: 139 68. Martino, J. P. 1983.
Technological forecasting for decision making. Newyork: Mcgraw-hill. Miljø-og Energiministeriet. 1996a. National Strategi for Dansk Miljø-og Energiforskning.
A manager's guide to technology forecasting and strategy analysis methods. Columbus/Richland, OH: Batelle Press.
Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53. Siune, K.,ed. 2001. Science policy. Setting the agenda for research.
Technology Futures analysis Methodsworking Group. 2004. Technology future analysis: towards integration of the field and new methods.
Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 3: 287 303. The Prime minister's Office. 2006: Progress, innovation and cohesion.
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http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country:
Frank Glod, Carlo Duprel & Michael Keenan (2009) Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country:
the case of Luxembourg, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 933-951, DOI: 10.1080/09537320903262298 To link to this article:
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8 november 2009,933 951 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country: the case of Luxembourg Frank Gloda*,Carlo Duprela and Michael Keenanb afonds national de la recherche, 6 rue Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, B
In an opening section, the general contours of science, technology and innovation (STI) policy in Luxembourg are traced, with a view to contextualising the FNR Foresight experience.
Luxembourg lacked a public science, technology and innovation infrastructure. R&d carried out in Luxembourg was largely the preserve of the private sector particularly the steel industry and even today,
and technology priority setting in a small country 935 Expenditure on Public research 0 20 000 000 40 000 000 60 000 000 80 000 000 100
therefore between thematic priorities concerned with scientific fields, technology areas, industrial sectors, issues, etc. and structuura priorities concerned with issues such as research infrastructures, higher education teaching programmes, innovation promotion initiatives, venture capital markets,
and technology priority setting in a small country 937 have been intended! A further related consideration concerns the need to maintain‘variety'in the S&t system,
and technology priority setting in a small country 939 where respondents were asked to rate research domains against a battery of‘attractiveness'and‘feasibility'criteria.
To assist the development of outstanding centres of science and technology excellence in Luxembourg; To ensure the specialisation of public research centre facilities into centres with a limited number of specific areas of high level expertise;
and technology priority setting in a small country 941 research was not to fall under identified research priorities.
by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country 943 so-called‘competence niches'
and technology priority setting in a small country 945 manner instead, their implementation depends upon enrolment and mobilisation of advocaac coalitions around emergent agendas.
and technology priority setting in a small country 947 6. 4. Impacts on the private sector It is unclear
and technology priority setting in a small country 949 MCHER would not have been suited better to perform the study itself.
environmental sciences, biomedical sciences, information and communication technologies, physical sciences and engineering, social sciences and humanities. 6. The single Social sciences and Humanities group of the first phase was replaced by two groups:
Identifying emerging generic technologies at the national level: the UK experience. Journal of Forecasting 22: 129 60.
and technology priority setting in a small country 951 Meyer, M. 2008. The dynamics of science in a small country:
Choosing priorities in science and technology. Paris: OECD. OECD. 2007. Reviews of innovation policy: Luxembourg. Paris:
Foresighting and technology choice in small developing countries. In Paper presented at the EU US Seminar:
New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, 13 14 may, Sevilla, Spain. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014
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experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 953-969, DOI:
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policy impact 1. Introduction In 2006, the City of Vienna initiated a far-reaching and open strategy process on the orientation of its future research, technology and innovation (RTI) policy.
By then, Vienna is aiming to be among Europe's leading metropolitan areas in research, technology and innovation,
government policies in relation to research and technology had predominantly been inspired by an approach that today is labelled often as‘picking winners':
the late 1970s saw the emergence of a new paradigm in research, technology and then also innovation policies,
technology and innovation, which not only deals with framework conditions, but also with the institutional and structural settings of innovation systems (Dosi 1988;
In line with these concepts, the 1990s were also characterised by a great reluctance of government policy to prioritise research themes and select technologies in a top down manner.
science, technology and innovation policies give the thematic portfolio of a country or region a greater weight again and pay more attention to long-term perspectives.
in order to keep pace with the international developments in science, technology and innovation, with new employment patterns and with the need to further upgrade research and innovation performance.
technology and innovation options among players, creating debate Awareness of the systemic character of change processes Foresight skills are developed in a wider circle Dialogues in new combinations of experts and stakeholders and a shared understanding
application potential of science and technology; Fast second mover: exploitation in the focus; Multi-centric excellence:
and from (high-tech) business contributed to the process. The discussion was intended to develop a comprehensive strategy
1) Making effective use of the potential for research, technology and innovation by creating adequate conditions for young people, irrespective of their origins,
building in particular on the existing key areas of life sciences, information and communication technology and creative industries.
Under the slogan‘Vienna research in dialogue',the City will address essential contemporary and future issues in the field of science, research and technology.
technology and innovation among different players that are primarily dealing with other issues. While still being distributed very much among different municipal departments,
Notes on contributors Matthias Weber is Head of Research, Technology and Innovation (RTI) Policy Unit at Austrian Institute of technology (AIT) invienna.
Paper presented at the 40th Anniversary Conference of SPRU,‘The Future of Science, Technology and Innovation policy:
Technology analysis & Strategic management 20: 369 87. City of Vienna. 2007a. Wiener Strategie für Forschung, Technologie und Innovation.
technologies, institutions and organizations. London: Pinter. Eriksson, E. A, . and M. Weber. 2008. Adaptive foresight: navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies.
Report to the Austrian Council for Research and Technology development. Vienna: ARC Systems Research. Smith, K. 2000.
United nations University, Institute for New technologies. Smits, R. 2002. The new role of strategic intelligence. In Strategic policy intelligence:
Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1t 3jh, UK Technology analysis & Strategic management Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:
The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project Stefanie Jenssen a a Centre for technology, innovation and culture (TIK), University of Oslo, Norway Published online:
The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 971-986, DOI:
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The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project Stefanie Jenssen*Centre for technology, innovation and culture (TIK), University of Oslo, Norway The article addresses the theme of foresight and equality in the area of stakeholder participation
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS)( 2005 7)‘ a vision is imagined an representation or a shared picture of the (usually desired future'.
Scholars of science and technology studies (STS) have called attention Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 974 S. Jenssen to the specific qualities of foresight
'They emphasise that future negotiating processes have to be studied according to how they are performed instead of looking at them as mere problem-solving tools for more prudent strategic decision making. 6 The Sociology of expectations analyses foresight practises as structured around expectations and promises in technology,
however, have questioned the direct influence of scientific expectatiion and technological promises on strategic development of organisations (Sanz-Menéndez and Cabello 2000;
me to republish his illustration as figure 2. Notes on contributor Stefanie Jenssen is a research fellow at the Centre for Technology,
'CFS does not regard new technologies as merely‘tangible, reified items out there in the real world,
and of power. 7. The sociology of expectations is influenced by Science and Technology studies (STS) and Actor-Network-theory (ANT),
and guidance literature interact with research areas of science and technology studies (STS), especially regarding insights about the relationships between‘given facts and future values'.
The sociology of expectations in science and technology. Technology analysis and Strategic management 18, no. 3/4: 285 98.
Brown, N. 2005. Shifting tenses: reconnecting regimes of truth and hope. Configurations 13, no. 3: 331 55.
Technology analysis and Strategic management 15:3 18. Brown, N.,A. Nelis, B. Rappert, A. Webster, F. Anton, C. Cabello, L. Sanz-Menéndez, A. Lohnberg,
European commission's Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS. 2005 7). FOR-LEARN online foresight guide.
Rethinking constructive technology assessment as democratic, reflective discourse. Technological forecasting and Social Change 73, no. 1: 13 26.
Paper presennte at the proceedings of international conference on Technology foresight the approach to and potential for new technology foresight.
National Institute of Science and Technology policy, Japan. www. nistep. go. jp/achiev/ftx/eng/mat077e/html/mat0771e. html (accessed September 2009.
International Journal of Technology management 21, no. 7/8: 711 25. Johnston, R. 2002. The state and contribution of international foresight:
the role of foresight in the selection of research policy priorities, 13 14 may 2002, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain.
Foresight in science and technology policy co-ordination. Futures 31, no. 6: 527 45. Rask, M. 2008.
Paper presented at second international Seville seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 28-29 september 2006, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain.
Technology and good dementia care: a study of technology and ethics in everyday care practice.
Phd diss. University of Oslo. UNESCAP. 2009. What is good governance? United nations. http://www. unescap. org/pdd/prs/Projectactivities/Ongoing/gg/governance. asp (accessed September 2009.
Promising technology: the dynamics of expectations in technological developments. Phd diss. University of Twente. Van Notten, P. 2005.
Risk and environment as legitimatory discourses of technology: reflexivity inside out? Current Sociology 50, no. 3: 459 477.
Quick technology intelligence processes Alan L. Porter*,1 R&d, Search Technology, Inc.,4960 Peachtree Industrial Blvd.
accepted 18 october 2004 Abstract Empirical technology analyses need not take months; they can be done in minutes.
and technology publication and patent abstract databases to better inform technology management. To do so requires developing templates of innovation indicators to answer standard questions.
Technology management; Rapid technology analyses; Tech mining; Text mining; Knowledge discovery in databases 1. Introduction How long does it take to provide a particular Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA?
We traditionally perceived the answer calibrated in months, particularly for empirical technology analyses. This mindset contributes to many technology management
or policy decisions relying primarily upon intuitive sources of knowledge. That need no longer be the case.
This paper makes the case for quick text mining profiles of emerging technologies. 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
10.1016/j. techfore. 2004.10.007*Tel.:++1 770 441 1457. E-mail address: aporter@searchtech. com 1 He is also Professor Emeritus, Georgia Tech,
and co-directs the Technology policy & Assessment Center there//tpac. gatech. edu. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081
I describe what we call btech miningq-deriving technology intelligence especially from R&d information resources 1, 2. The phenomenon of interest is speed,
but with provision of information that truly facilitates technology management. The time to conduct certain technology analyses can be reduced from months to minutes by taking advantage of four factors enabling QTIP Quick Technology intelligence Processes:
1) instant database access, 2) analytical software, 3) automated routines, and 4) decision process standardization. The first QTIP factor concerns information availability.
A defining characteristic of the binformation Economyq is enhanced access to information. Of particular note to FTA, the great science and technology (S&t) databases cover a significant portion of the world's research output.
These databases can be searched from one's computer, enabling retrieval of electronic records in seconds.
Many organizations have unlimited use licenses to particular databases that allow for thousands of records to be located
All told, this wealth of information enables potent technological intelligence analyses. The second QTIP factor consists of expedited analyses using one form of btech miningq software.
For instance, suppose we have a certain Sshaape growth model that we find highly informative for a particular family of technology forecasts.
Today, major organizations are standardizing certain strategic technology and business decision processes. Stagegaat approaches set forth explicit decisions to be sequenced toward particular ends (e g.,
But, even more importantly, it familiarizes users with data-based technology analyses The manager who gets the prescribed FTA A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1071 outputs upon
which to base particular technology management decisions comes to know them. S) he develops understanding of their strengths and limitations,
In this way technology intelligence gains credibility as a vital decision aid. The Model T analogy carries over here too (loosely) the availability of this standard vehicle enables an efficient infrastructure to develop around it.
Likewise, the established technology decision framework constitutes the fourth factor needed for QTIP-decision process standardization.
what it takes to produce composite empirical responses to particular technology management questions, quickly. 2. Case example:
Fuel cells are the example technology. They convert hydrogen and oxygen into water, producing electricity and heat in the process.
Suppose we have systematized a decision process that calls for answers to particular technology management questions. Imagine a scenario in which our organization is an American company initiating operations in Australia.
We have investigated already technologies and determined that SOFC's appear most promising, but will need enhancement and customization.
13 Management of Technology (bmotq) issues! 39 MOT questions! 200 binnovation indicatorsq. 2 We gratefully acknowledge support of the U s. National science Foundation for"QTIPS-24-Hour Technology intelligence & Forecasting"(DMI-0231650.
A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1072 Innovation indicators are rooted empirical measures in models of how technological innovation proceeds.
technological maturation (life cycle status), contextual influences and market potential 3. The innovation indicators help answer MOT questions.
quick technology analyses must be done with a minimum of intermediaries. In our SOFC example, we use R&d publication abstract records from the Science Citation Index (SCI) and INSPEC,
For instance, Georgia Tech previously hosted key databases on its own server for access by students, staff, and faculty.
At times the Technology policy and Assessment Center at Georgia Tech has accessed such sources through a gateway service,
upon being alerted to a need to assess an emerging technology, the analyst can obtain the records immediately from such sources.
The resulting information for btech miningq consists primarily of science and technology (S&t) publication and patent abstract records.
in technology X? Q They would recognize and understand each component indicator, and know what to look for.
Furthermore, the further the analysis probes into advanced technologies, the more critical it becomes to obtain inputs by substantive experts.
box (lower right) spotlights several indicators of technological advance: o publication and patent activity relating to the candidate hot topic (bnano-comboq-nano-surfaces
Siemens-Westinghouse, Allied-Signal, NGK Insulators Fig. 1. Technology ddone-Pagerq. A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1075 o three companies each show 7
The result of that would be suitable intelligence for senior technology managers to help determine next steps.
which to partner to meet our technological needs. Note that this example analysis does not focus on bnano-surfaces and rare-earth materialsq,
Low High tech Fit Tech Coverage Tech Concentration Hungry? Capabilities Spectrum Res Dev Mfg Com SCORECARD Auto-Correlation Map Inventors (Cleaned)( Cleaned...
Fig. 1 profiles technology development activity across multiple organizations. Fig. 2 profiles one company's activity in this case for one technological development domain, SOFCS.
Other variants of company profiling might compare the company's activities across technologies, or probe more deeply into a more specific sub-area (e g.,
What the technology focus and organizational focus profiles hold in common is a compilation of empirical information to help answer a particular MOT question. 3. Discussion This paper illustrates how to compose informative decision support from empirical information concerning various
facets of an emerging technology quickly. Collectively, the integration of the four QTIP factors results in a qualitative change in FTA.
We know of a major corporation that reduced its time to provide a key set of competitive technological intelligence (CTI) analyses from 3 months to 3 days.
The b3-dayq QTIP addresses the technology information needs of end-users, such as senior technology managers or policy-makers.
They would not be expected to perform the analyses themselves. In contrast, the second b3-minq example indicates that others engaged in technology analyses have special needs too.
The bquickq in this case serves the person performing the search and analysis. Design of QTIP tools and functions must address the diverse needs of all the players.
technology analysts (e g.,, power users of these capabilities on a regular basis! researchers, technologists, and some managers (e g.,, occasional users of the databases and analytical tools!
decision-makers (e g.,, policy-makers and managers who weigh emerging technology considerations as either their main focus or as contributing factors,
but do not perform the analyses personally). Process management calls for explicit attention to how the analyses and their outputs can best be organized to enhance utility.
Technology analysts need to think beyond what constitutes valid and impressive analyses to what their target users want and
Recognition of the potential for speedy analyses should lead to rethinking the bases for technology management (MOT.
Technology management, somewhat surprisingly, is among the least data-intensive managerial domains. One would think that scientists, engineers,
and technology managers would naturally pursue empirical means to manage R&d and its transition into effective innovations.
Not at all even in tracking our own performance, researchers strongly prefer peer judgment to bibliometrics. The technical community has a deep distrust of metrics.
This poses an additional challenge to be overcome in implementing empirically informed technology management. Of course many do use empirical information in S&t arenas.
Tech mining offers qualitatively different capabilities. It can uncover patterns that reflect competitor strategies 9. It can also enable researchers
Certainly, this btech miningq approach to quick technology analyses does not equally affect all forms of FTA.
This paper explores the potential to expedite certain technological intelligence functions. btech A l. Porter/Technological forecasting
As such it represents one advanced form of technology monitoring. This information can serve other FTA needs to various degrees:!
Technology foresight Quick tech mining can help participants grasp the scope of technology development efforts. Access to results in interactive mode (e g.,
Technology Forecasting QTIP can provide empirical measures for certain trend analyses to support growth model fitting
Technology and Product Roadmapping QTIP serves background information roles well. It is vital in documenting external technology development activities to track their likely trajectories.
It helps devise internal R&d priorities to hit the gaps in external development efforts.!Technology assessment Again, QTIP can help scope the extent of R&d activities.
Exploiting contextual information resources that cover policy, standards, public concerns, possible health and environmental hazards, and perceived technological impacts can further support TA activities.
In sum, tech mining offers partial, but potentially very effective, support for these varied FTA endeavors.
QTIP emphasizes speed in generating technology analyses. Speed surely must be tempered by need. The sidebar vignette offers a realistic scenario of how this could unfold.
The driver is bwhen do need you to have what information? Q Note that this seriously alters relationships and expectations between manager users and technology analysts.
Particularly for academic researchers, we have an inclination to say bwe can deliver a fine analysis;
Instead, the quick mindset has the user set the defining temporal parameter the deadline then we technology analysts fit into that schedule.
The Vice-president for Research at Georgia Tech asks me to benchmark this university's SOFC research against the leading American universities for a presentation this noon.
and are licensed for unlimited use by Georgia Tech.!8: 10 am: I complete simple searches in SCI
I search a compilation of Georgia Tech publication records to augment the VP's awareness of who is active in fuel cells.
I check that my search strategy captures most of the Georgia Tech authored papers to help validate the query.!
and notes that Georgia Tech has collaborated recently with a key researcher at one of the other universities.
He notes that we have left out a key Georgia Tech SOFC researcher who leads many sponsored research projects on
Its novelty lies in the approach to technology analyses in support of technology management. To fully realize QTIP potential requires significant process management change:!
Mandate explicit technology information products be provided for decision stages in such processes.!Provide each researcher, development engineer, project manager, intellectual property analyst, etc. with direct, desktop access to a couple of most useful S&t information databases.!
Negotiate unlimited use licenses for those databases.!License easy-to-use analytical software for all.!Script the routine analytical processes.!
I would go so far as to forecast that the technology manager who relies solely on intuitive information faces extinction.
We look to this revolutionizing technology management much as the Model T revolutionized production processes. References 1 A l. Porter
S w. Cunningham, Tech Mining: Exploiting New technologies for Competitive advantage, Wiley, New york, 2005.2 T. Teichert, M.-A. Mittermayer, Text mining for technology monitoring, IEEE IEMC 2002 (2002) 596 601.3 R
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What You Need from Technology information Products, Research-Technology management, 2004 (Nov 8 H. de Bruijn, A l. Porter, The education of a technology policy analyst-to process management, Technology analysis and Strategic management 16 (2)( 2004
) 261 274.9 H. Ernst, Patent information for strategic technology management, World Patent Information 25 (3)( 2003) 233 242.10 A. Kontostathis,
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