time & dates

ART13.pdf

Multi-path mapping for alignment strategies in emerging science and technologies Douglas K. R. Robinson a,,

, The netherlands Received 28 september 2006; received in revised form 5 july 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Roadmapping serves both short and long term (strategic) alignment in science and technology (S&t.

Forecasts of the likely future development of S&t are generated; then research and development (R&d) efforts necessary to realize various goals are backcast.

But for new and Emerging s&t this trusted principle does not work: the likely products are articulated not yet.

Constructive technology assessmentavailable online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 Corresponding author.

0040-1625/$-see front matter 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.002 1. Lacunae and prospects of assessment and alignment tools for emerging science and technology For innovation to succeed actor alignment in the form of innovation chains from laboratory to products

'and capitalising on fortuitous events until such time that there is a feeling of stabilisation and assessments and forecasts have become more reliable.

Frontiers initiated in 2006 one such programme of Future oriented technology assessment activities (FTA. FTA is used here as an umbrella term for similar forward-looking and/or interactive characteristics of TA approaches.

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 of alignment to allow for the creation of innovation chains in the field of micro and nanotechnology.

and interviews done in conjunction with the work discussed here, we can add that unless start-ups and SMES are part of networks

'4 Even though group leaders may use roadmap-type forecasts to organize financial support for their research. 5 As the Dutch Minacned consortium did in 2006 with their‘Roadmap Micro/Nanotechnology in Food';

/7 Cf Rip et al 2005 30‘Assessment'and‘alignment'can be used somewhat interchangeably where they refer to tools that help assessing actions on the way to an anticipated future-tools for‘anticipatory coordination'(learning curves of‘disruptive technologies';‘

and tools for portfolio and project management. 519 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 The point we make is that technological uncertainty

In addition over the 15 years of research and development into lab-on-a-chip devices, larger industry has been reluctant to invest in stimulating

sample preparation, pretreattment analysis, manipulation and removal. 520 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538

Dosi, 1982, p 152) In their paper investigating the airplane construction regime, Nelson andwinter 35 argued that

The DC-3 aircraft in the 1930s was the template for over 20 years for innovation in aircraft design around piston powered planes with metal skin and low wings.

Van den Belt and Rip 36 extended the Nelson Winter Dosi models for the late 19th synthetic dye industry,

The aim was to explain what microeconomics at the time was unable to do: Why do certain technologies become dominant

Deuten 2003, page 14). 521 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 then sustained by increasing returns.

They can be defined as‘socio-technical entanglements which over time enable and constrain alignments and activities of persons,

'14 Irreversibilities grow over time, shaping and being shaped by the historical affordance structures which guide path dynamics.

Thus over time as the S&t field becomes more stabilised, the patchwork of emerging irreversibilities become part of the affordance structure that shapes ongoing dynamics within the socio-technical path.

by repositioning the notion of path as something that is evolving/emerging in real-time, one can attempt to modulate/steer dynamics towards the more desirable actor arrangements

that the study of unintended consequences is fundamental to the sociological enterprise (Giddens 1984, page 12). 12 Path creation and path dependence studies are merged also in the Free University of Berlin doctoral programme on organisational paths of the semiconductor consortia 42.13 Research becomes doable

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 With respect to the first notion a path lies at the domain level.

a plan to connect the present to the future. In both cases managing for the most desirable path is the goal,

In 1990 Manz 51 posed that integrated microfluidics could be harnessed to create complex systems that integrate all necessary analysis steps on one chip,

and in the early 1990s high expectations were raised about the possibilities of performing (bio) chemical analysis at any lab-on-a-chip and at anytime, for example, total blood analysis at the patient's bedside (Point-of-care testing).

In 1993, Harrison and Manz 52 reported on a breakthrough regarding the successful miniaturisation of the analytical technique of capillary electrophoresis,

In the mid 1990s other scientific communities (synthetic chemists; biologists) were attracted to the field, foreseeing that this technology could aid them in their work

Around 2000 nanotechnology started entering this field, offering improvements to existing chip components, but also providing novel concepts for separation and detection, cell analysis, cell manipulation etc.

Also, in the field of biomedical research, off the back of the Human Genome Project15, a major emphasis in cell biology over the last decade has been focused on in areas related to genomics, proteomics, medical diagnostics,

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 This can be translated into a prospective innovation chain diagram (see Fig. 2) where we see scientific and technological research on the left-hand side of the diagram,

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 The central bubble describes the further technical development of an experimental integration of elements into a working lab-on-a-chip device

(transition from phase 2 to phase 3). This development is the largest stumbling block over the past years (as described in the history above)

The grey crescent represents the present barrier which must be crossed in order to produce an integrated lab-on-a-chip device.

This barrier will be explored later in the paper as the main gap in the innovation chain for the last 15 years,

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 be illustrated and discussed. In the following two sections we will describe both MPMS,

and (6) Analysis. Relevant research for instrumentation and approaches for each of these stages is positioned in the proof of principle section (phase 1) of the innovation chain shown in Figs. 1 and 2. Such areas of research have proliferated over the last 10 years 53,54.

(2008) 517 538 single cell based biosensors 61,62 etc.,are now being circulated by many of both the TAS and biology communities.

/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 however can use different approaches and technologies shown in the lowest band on the diagram.

and (5) general time axis and stages of innovation chain. The actual MPM would show many more specific paths plotted within the clusters of MCA

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 Such an MPM-1 can be useful for developing a portfolio of research projects

These scenarios in themselves contained reliable information on the current situation and selected prospective chronologies of innovations in cell-on-a-chip (rather than possible choices to go for.

Fourteen selected practitioners attended the workshop on 12 june 2006 in Amsterdam. Due to the aims and constraints of this paper we have to 529 D. K. R. Robinson,

T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 describe the details of the workshop process elsewhere. 17 Here we focus on the results relating to the MPM-2. The group identified a number of existing

because the innovation chain is precarious and may collapse. Flexibility is attractive for developing sustainable innovation chains

www. technology assessment. eu. 530 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 but then proceeded to outsource the further development of product

4) Heterogeneous clusters. 531 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 move towards a generic platform

there is little acknowledgement of time spent on doing this as opposed to research and teaching. 23 One way of doing this is developing an integrated platform based on an interesting 18 This agglomeration effect of technology platforms is particularly strong for nanotechnologies 67.

& Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 experiment. For example, the University of Hull's crime scene forensic device is one case where funding was given to develop a prototype device for DNA analysis,

From the outset 533 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 no preference can be given to any chain,

and over time, reshape the portfolio. MPM helps answering relevant questions such as: What specific kinds of innovation chains can be stimulated?

At the time of writing (March 2007) we can undertake some preliminary impact assessment because the conceptual development and refinement of the MPMS was linked up with an interactive workshop.

and ways of bridging 534 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 the gaps.

At the level of Frontiers the tool has been taken up in official documents as MPM-1 was included in the first round strategic planning document known as the Frontiers Roadmap for 2006/2007.

a young start-up company initiated in February 2006 with intentions to be the systems integrator of a lab-on-a-chip device focused on a specific application in the medical sector.

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75 (2008) 517 538

ART14.pdf

Interpreting foresight process impacts: Steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of‘foresight systems'Effie Amanatidou a,,

Ken Guy b, 1 a University of Manchester-PREST/MIOIR, Manchester, UK b Wise guys Ltd.,UK Received 28 september 2006;

received in revised form 15 february 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Foresight programmes are evaluated usually in terms of the achievement of initial objectives and the scale and nature of direct, anticipated impacts,

notwithstanding the difficulty of measuring such impacts. However, indirect and/or unanticipated impacts that fall outside the scope of specific programme goals and objectives have also been reported.

These are mainly impacts associated with the foresight process itself, i e. with the way in which foresight exercises are designed and implemented.

Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Corresponding author.

15-16 St mary's House, St mary's Road, Shoreham-by-Sea, West sussex, UK-BN43 5za. 0040-1625/$-see front matter 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights

Actors'alignment 1. Introduction The present article presents results to date2 from research leading towards the production of a Phd thesis entitled Assessing the contribution of Foresight to a more participatory knowledge society.

although sharing some methodological characteristics and similarities in terms of time horizons and audiences addressed, usually have different aims, scopes and levels of implementation.

This has increased in importance in the past few years, not only in terms of the management of health-and environment-related risks,

As a starting point, a conceptual framework is presented which outlines the major characteristics of emerging knowledge societies. This is based on a review of the available literature.

if emerging 2 Phd research will be complete by Jan. 2010.3 Strategic goal for 2010, set for Europe at the Lisbon European council March 2000 (http://www. europarl. europa. eu/summits

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 knowledge societies are to flourish. Given this, there is need to develop a model capable of describing

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 capital as key factors underpinning the more technical features of the knowledge-based economy and the realisation of a‘knowledge society'.

The alignment of actors goes beyond the usual actors in previous times (i e. government, industry and scientists.

see 1. 542 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 the literature review,

'drivers and factors shaping modern societies. 7 See for example 2100 543 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 versions

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 This can be enriched by taking further sub-objectives and related impacts into account,

Typically, logic model approaches start with specific programme goals and objectives and attempt to identify paths to potential goal attainment by treating foresight programmes as systems comprised of a number of basic elements, namely context, actors, processes

'545 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 has to be modified,

however, when dealing with the attainment of generic goals that may or may not have been identified as specific programme goals.

In this instance, the starting point cannot be the rationale and objectives of the programme. Instead, the impact assessment framework has to be built the other way round,

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 goal can be identified and what factors lead to

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 principles that a foresight exercise should adopt

The evaluation of the latest UK Foresight programme 5 sheds light on several direct and indirect impacts and highlighted several factors that affected the overall success of the UK foresight exercise.

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 in three categories: immediate; intermediate;

Even though neither the second nor the first round were organised by government but by a consortium of agencies,

The organisers regarded the results of the first round as a starting point for wider discussion of more social orientation This meant,

lasting for about two years, and received a lot of publicity, with the Prime minister giving the keynote speech at its conference.

which echoed political discussions that were occurring more widely in Sweden at the time, did not manage to attract the same level of publicity

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 The evaluation was critical of the intervention logic,

The Swedish foresight initiative also demonstrated that the timing of an initiative has a critical influence on its ability to affect policy.

thus providing comprehensive lists of criteria and important factors in different conditions and environments. 550 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539

551 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Given that all the elements of a foresight system can now be identified,

networks and actor alignment Given the peculiar nature of the task at hand, namely the search for diverse impacts (from changes in social capital to more informed publics and better networking) that may

For the purpose of the present article, the area of networking and actors'alignment is discussed.

'552 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 competition, crowding and speed;(

1991 as quoted in 27). Network operation has to find a balance between flexibility and coordination efficiency,

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 information, but also by people's wants, motives, personalities, experiences, value systems, wishes, hopes, expectations, beliefs, feelings, attitudes, needs and concerns.

Perceptions and goals may change over time. Two processes thus facilitate alignment within constituencies: consultation and communication concerning the nature of perceptions and goals and the possibility of aligning existing perceptions and goals by maximising collaboration and minimising competition;

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557‘knowledge society'are required also to enhance participatory governance and vice versa,

The applicability of the resulting impact assessment framework (s) will then be tested via case studies. 555 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 References 1 E. Amanatidou,

Paper presented at the 9th ICTPI conference, Santorini, June 18 21 2006.2 K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, Evaluating a participative foresight process:‘

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the transaction cost approach, American Journal of Sociology 87 (3)( 1981) 548 575.556 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008

paper presented in the conference of European Group of Public Administration, Lisbon, September 2003.28 A. Molina, Sociotechnical constituencies as processes of alignment:

The rise of a large-scale European information technology initiative, Technology in Society 17 (4)( 1995) 385 412.

She has 10-year experience in policy development and analysis in the field of research and innovation.

Since 1996 she held the position of Director of the Science and Technology policy Studies Unit at ATLANTIS Research organisation (Greece)

which she resigned from at the end of 2006. Research interests include the areas of research evaluation and impact assessment, foresight, national innovation systems and policies, scientific advice for policy-making and risk governance.

www. wiseguys. ltd. uk, a company he launched in 2000 to conduct innovation policy research and provide advice to innovation policymakers and administrators.

and Technopolis Ltd, an innovation policy consultancy which he founded in 1989 and which, by the time of his departure in January 2000, had grown to be a leader in its field, with offices in Brighton, Amsterdam, Paris and Vienna.

Mailing address: Ken Guy, Wise guys Ltd. 15-16 St mary's House, St mary's Road, Shoreham-by-Sea, West sussex, UK BN43 5za. 557 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change

75 (2008) 539 557

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