joint programming. 1. Introduction Science and scientists have crossed the national borders of individual states for many years.
monitored and evaluated at national level (European commission 2008. Another driver for more collaboration is the increasing pressure in Europe1 and other parts of the world2 for research and innovation to both support competitiveness3 and offer solutions to global and local societal challenges.
Finally, it draws conclusions for foresight in transnational research programming. 2. Co-ordination of transnational programming The co-ordination of cross-national public research involves a set of challenges in bridging potentially Science and Public policy 39 (2012
10.1093/scipol/scs020 The Author 2012. Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email:
Seiser (2010) identifies eight tensions in research priority setting from the point-of-view of policy-makers and scientists (see Table 1). A third set of tensions relates to the multi-disciplinary and multilevel complexity of societal challenges.
As current governance systems are incapable of tackling current and future, interconnected, global challennge (Ko nno la et al. 2012),
and over time (see Section 2. 2) . If effective research and innovation are seen as part of the solution to these tensions,
Gnamus (2009) proposes eight levels in internatioona science and technology (S&t) co-operation (see Fig. 1). This paper will focus on level four‘programme co-operation and co-ordination'.
management and sharing of intellectual property rights (CEC 2010) In the ERA NET scheme a four-step approach is applied4 (Matrix-Rambøll 2009).
%generating multinational evaluation procedures (55%)(Matrix-Rambøll 2009. For the purpose of this paper we define five key functions in transnational research programming,
Based on Seiser (2010) Drivers of transnational research priority setting from point-of-view of science Drivers of transnational research priority setting from point-of-view of policy-making Bottom-up Top-down More focus on scientific frontier Feeding
existing clientele Risk taking for new discoveries Risk averse Priority setting by peers Priority setting by diplomacy Long-term perspective Time pressure Simplified yet sustainable funding Juste retoura
T. Ko nno la and K. Haegeman 2. 2 Dimensions of co-ordination of transnational research programming The challenges of transnational research collaboration have been addressed for decades,
An example is the co-operation between ERA NETS and European technology platforms (Niehoff and Andersdotter 2007.
2011) identified two challenges:.vertical co-ordination. horizontal co-ordination We elaborate on this work
Nations or regions aiming to collaborate in research programming often face strong differences of varying nature in the way their respective national research systems are built up (Optimat et al. 2005;
Anderson 2010. These include: structuura differences in national programme orientation15 and implementation orientation, 16 diversity of programme funding organisations;
Anderson (2010) also points to the importance of legal and regulatory systems, oversight related to research integrity,
The OECD (2003) has identified vertical coherennc as a general long-term policy objective ensuring that the practices of agencies
Comprehensive strategic cross-policy/sector partnerships 8 Figure 1. Development phases of international S&t co-operation (Gnamus 2010.
and foreign RTD investments (Kaiser and Prange 2004). Indeed, today the research system is an integral part of the prevailing multilayered innovation system.
2011) consider experiences from vertical co-ordination between local, regional and (international levels providing significant insights into the challennge of managing multilayered research and innovation systems.
Such challenges have been related to the systemic nature of innovation (Smits and Kuhlmann 2004), performmanc of innovation systems (Lundvall 1992;
Edquist 1997), and processes of regionalisation (Kaiser and Prange 2004), which have resulted together in complex multilayered policies especially in Europe.
The articulation of thematic priorities for transnational research and innovation co-operation, e g. from EU level, raises issues related to their coherence with the priorities and needs of lower levels of governance, particularly in terms of
while policy co-ordination can only assume soft forms (Reid et al. 2007). 2. 2. 3 Horizontal co-ordination between research and other policy areas.
2011) note that successful research and innovation processes can be facilitated by horizontal co-ordination between research and other policy areas (such as competition, regional, financial, employment and education policies).
In more general terms, the OECD (2003) has called for horizontal coherence as a general governance objective ensuring that individual objectives
Such differences are caused by the dynamics of evolutionary and systemic processes with different phases of competing technological alternatives and emerging dominant designs (Ko nno la et al. 2011.
The aligning of research systems with vertical and horizontal co-ordination efforts face major difficulties in facilitating policy activities that lead to sustainable policy efforts over time.
The OECD (2003) defines temporal coherence as a general policy objective that ensures that policies continue to be effective over time
given the role of time lags in transnational policy-making contexts. Table 3 links the four dimensions of policy co-ordination, as described above
In last two decades systemic challenges in research and innovation have lead to the development of systemic Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 195 instruments for better preparedness, co-ordination and integrratio of research and innovation systems
(Smits and Kuhlmann 2004. Among different systemic instruments foresight has been characterised as a participatory, systemic and anticipatory vision building approach that supports the present-day decision-making (European commission 2002).
In this paper we explore the possible role of foresight in transnational research programming and how it can respond to systemic, horizontal,
and piloting of the proposed approach. 3. 1 Foresight processes case by case The cases were handpicked principally because of the explicit role of foresight activities in their implementation as well as the fact that the present authors had access to the information
) Temporal co-ordination Ensuring that policies continue to be effective over time and that short-term decisions do not contradict longer-term commitmeent(‘dynamic efficiency')Differences in degree of continuity of policy design
and implementation Differences in start and duration of national programmes Different national rules and cycles make collaboration impractical Differences in speed of implementation at national level Differences in degree of long-term planning
at national/regional level 196. T. Ko nno la and K. Haegeman specific processes and roles of foresight in each of these cases is given below and in Fig. 2. 3. 1. 1 Wood Wisdom-net24.
Based on the results of the last workshop for funding organisaations three working groups were formed such that each consisted of funding organisations with shared interesst in the topic of the working group. 3. 1. 2 EMIDA ERA-NET27.
To this end, longer-term strategic requirements with a 10 5 year outlook are identified in a systematic way, building on knowledge about future aspects of animal disease develoopmen in Europe and the world,
and respective foresight roles Case Partners Timing Goal Role of foresight Wood Wisdom-net20 18 partners from 8 European countries 2004 8 Establish
support mobilising and networking of innovation communities across borders EMIDA ERA-NET21 29 partners (and three observers) of 19 EU Member States and Associated Countries 2008 11 Develop a durable focused network22 of national research funders in Member and Associated States of EU in order to share information,
coordiinat activities and work towards a common research agenda and mutual research funding activities in field of animal health Structured long-term foresight process to develop,
and associated countries 2010 onwards‘Rethink and manage the increasing urban orientation and concentration in Europe in order to create
strengthened global position in Europe'(Urban Europe, 2011) Determine specific research needs and roadmaps, short-and long-term policy measures,
business opportunities and needs for new co-operation structures Support identification of breakthrroug innovations on functions of cities in future (2020 50) Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 197 3
business opportunities, needs for new co-operation structures and breakthrough innovations with regard to the functions of cities in the future (2020 50.
which can change during process accordiin to upcoming needs Analysis of current time horizon of existing programmes reveals a lack of longer term foresights.
Foresights with a time horizon of 2050 and beyond are planned therefore Development of scenarios, desirable futures and pathways towards these futures for specific Urban Europe topics Use of a pilot call to improved understanding of future trends
and of research infrastructure planning with these programmmes The participation of the actors in research systems in a foresight process may also promote transparennc
and can compare this with current programmes and their time horizons. Alternatively, current and planned programmes can be checked against alternative future scenarios to test their robustness over time.
Temporal co-ordination also relates to regularly checking those scenariios visions and roadmaps against new developments
and to help building communities over time, thus making use of the collective knowledge of wider stakeholder groups.
and enables transitions between different levels of abstraction by way of problem structuring and synthesis (Ko nno la et al. 2011).
or modules can be enacted relatively independently from the other sub-processes (Ko nno la et al, 2011).
the tasks in the final phases were specified not fully at the outset, because it was expected that results from the earlier phases would be helpful in planning these tasks.
Furthermore, if one regards foresight as a creative process (Salo et al. 2004), then it may be impertinent to fix foresight objectives
and design for the duration of the Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 201 entire exercise,
Instead of seeking to‘fix'the objecttive and associated process design at the outset those in charge of the foresight process should anticipate,
and execute large-scale foresight exercises according to a clear‘bluepriint (Havas 2003). Salo et al. 2004) argue that responsiveness to shifting objectives
and stakeholder expectations should be regarded as a major concern and even a key design variable in the planning and execution of foresight activities.
At the time of writing this paper only the expected outcomes have been defined, as well as criteria to assess potential call topics, such as providing input and insights for developing new concepts and providing input for research roadmaps.
In turn, with the notion of‘result flexibility'we refer to leaving flexibiliit with regards to how the results are expected to be presennted Between the modules executed in sequence,
and to be time consuming, hence be counterproductive by inhibiting the rapid and efficient implementation of transnational research programming.
By way of engaging stakeholders in the creation and codification of tacit knowledge (Nonaka 1994), foresight synthesises key findings for decision-makers from fragmented information and expert recommendations.
and participation in transnational research programming, making use of existing initiatives such as the Forlearn Online foresight Guide (European commission 2012) or the UNIDO Technology foresiigh Guide (UNIDO 2012)..
The transnational, efficient and effective engagement of numerous stakeholders may lead to time-consuming and resource-intensive processes.
one of the recent and most advanced efforts to move forward with transnational research programming has been Joint Programming (JP) in Research (European commission 2008),
a programme set up in connection with the Europe 2020 strategy (European commission 2010b) and European Innovation Partnerships (European commission 2010c).
EU Member States have approved a first version of evolving and voluntary framewoor conditions for joint programming (ERAC-GPC 2011),
However, such internatiiona engagements call for a structured and modular design to avoid endeavours that are time-and resource-intensive.
and the principles we have outlined are integrated into the overall design and management from the outset of the programming activities.
Notes 1. See Europe 2020 (European commission 2010b) and the Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union (European commission 2010c.
<http://www. whitehouse. gov/innovation strategy>accessed 15 march 2012.3. For an analysis of the link between innovation strategies and economic performance, see Dahlman (2008.
4. The four steps used by ERA NET (European research area-NET) are:.systematic exchange of information and good practices on existing programmes and activities. identification and analysis of common strategic issues. planning and development of joint activities between national and regional programmes. implementation
2005), Anderson (2010), Chioncel and Cuntz (2012), European commission (2011), Seiser (2010) and authors'own expertise. 6. An indicator of the culture of openness may be the past and present openness
For example, ERAWATCH data show that two-thirds of 2009 national research prograamme relevant for the Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture,
<www. foresight-platform. eu>accessed 15 march 2012.8. The use of‘regional'in this paper is to be understood as‘geographically part of a nation'
<http://ipts. jrc. ec. europa. eu/activities/research-andinnovvations3platform. cfm>accessed 15 march 2012.10. ERAWATCH is a platform collecting data on national research systems in the ERA,
including policy documents and research programmes. 11. NETWATCH collects data on transnational research collaboration in the ERA. 12.
In Europe the following European and intergovernmennta mechanisms are in place: the ERA NET Scheme (ERA NET Actions and ERA NET Plus Actions), Article 185 Initiatives (old Art. 169), European Technology platforms, Joint Technology initiatives, Eureka, JP, the Open
JTIS make use of Framework Prograamm 7 support services such as the IPR Helpdesk(<www. ipr-helpdesk. org>accessed 15 march 2012)
and the Finance Helpdesk(<www. finance-helpdesk. org>accessed 15 march 2012). 14. External evaluation of the EIT (External Evaluation 2011.
15. Optimat et al. 2005) defines three types of dominant programme orientation strategies for national research systems in Europe:
single framework programme, multiple generic programmes, and multiple thematic programmes. 16. Optmat (2005) defines three types of dominant funding organisations:
multi agency/council/ministry, several agencies/councils, and single agency/council. 17. For example, 23.9%of EU gross expenditure on r&d is performed by the higher education sector,
%while in Lithuania over 50%of gross expenditure on r&d is performed by this sector (calculaation based on Eurostat data for 2009).
the responsible governments focus on the quality of scientific research (Bruno and Van til 2011). Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 205 19.
2005), Anderson (2010), Chioncel and Cuntz (2012), European commission (2011), Seiser (2010) and the present authors'own expertise. 20.
2008). ) 21. EMIDA ERA NET stands for‘Coordination of European research on emerging and major infectious diseases of livestock'.
'The case description is based on EMIDA Description of Work (2009. 22. This initiative builds on the work of the SCAR. 23.
Case description based on Urban Europe (2011. 24. The case description is based on Brummer et al. 2008).
) 25. Over 400 stakeholders from all participating countries participated in the process. 26. The assessment criteria for researcher's were:
industrial relevance, possible time horizon for industrial use and need for collaboration at EU level. 27.
Case description based on EMIDA Description of Work (2009. 28. To this end terms of reference (Ooms 2009) for its establishment have been drafted,
which will be part of a wider collaboration agreement. 29. Case description based on Urban Europe (2011. The first experiences with practical implementation followiin this report may look somewhat different than described in this report.
Within the timeframe of this paper it is, however, too early to draw any conclusions on possible discrepancies between planning and implementtatio of foresight activities in this case. 30.
See<www. foresight-platform. eu>accessed 15 march 2012.35. An example is the generic online foresight training,
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Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 207
On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues Effie Amanatidou1,,
*Maurits Butter2, Vicente Carabias3, Totti Ko nno la 4, Miriam Leis5, Ozcan Saritas1, Petra Schaper-Rinkel6 and Victor van Rij7 1manchester
Institute of Innovation research, MBS, Harold Hankins Building, University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9pl, UK 2tno, Wassenaarseweg 56,2333 AL Leiden, The netherlands 3eu DG
JRC-IPTS, Seville, Spain, and ZHAW Zurich University of Applied sciences, Institute of Sustainable development, Postfach 805, CH-8401 Winterthur, Switzerland 4impetu Solutions, Vi'ctor Andre's Belaunde, 36-4c
, 28016 Madrid, Spain 5editage/Cactus Communications Inc.,C-912 BSEL Tech Park, Sector 30a, Vashi, New Mumbai 400 705, India 6austrian Institute of technology, Donau-City-Straße 1, 1220 Vienna, Austria 7advisory Council for Science
and Technology policy, Javastraat 42,2585 AP The hague, The netherlands*Corresponding author. Email: amana@otenet. gr. Future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action
policy support. 1. Introduction The 2000s have witnessed increasing complexities in societies. Although the world has improved for some people,
Science and Public policy 39 (2012) pp. 208 221 doi: 10.1093/scipol/scs017 The Author 2012.
Published by Oxford university Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals. permissions@oup. com A relevant tool for this purpose is defined horizon scanning as:..
Van Rij 2010a, 2010b) Horizon scanning may also take place in specific policy domains (Botterhuis et al. 2010.
thus providing a more evidence-based approach to research and innovation policy (Georghiou 2007). The main focus of this activity has been to address new and emerging technological areas that may have an impact on social, economic,
The present paper draws on the experiences from the seventh European Framework programme horizon scanning project Scanning for Emerging science and Technology Issues (SESTI.
3 During the project the present authors developed an approach to organise and implement horizon scanning processes effectively
which is extended at the margins of the known environment and possibly beyond it (Loveridge 2009.
2012) regard horizon scanning as:..a creative process of collective sense-making by way of collecting
Thus, one may end up with different sets of individual observations that could be related to each other under certain headings such as:
or social signals (Uskali 2005) Wild cards Wild cards are events with a surprising character, a low probability and a high impact (Van Rij 2011).
or prepared for (Saritas and Smith 2011). Wild cards represent the occurrence of a singular (historically original), sudden (abrupt,
and researchers (Mendonc¸a et al. 2009) Emerging issues Beyond horizon scanning the concept of emerging issues is used also in the area of risk assessment (Marvin et al. 2009), in the field of environmental issues (Sutherland et al. 2010) and in organisations in their environmental scanning (Morrison 1992).
It comes close to the concept of future narratives as used by Van der Steen (2008) in his political discourse analysis. Van der Steen (2008) sees future narratives as‘stories about what the future,
2010) Discourse and decision-making Political discourse refers to the continuous communicative debate that takes place in the political arena.
This debate is unique for human beings with their ability of speech and writing (Chilton 2004;
Van dijk 2002) and nowadays audiovisual presentations and computer simulations. The outcome of a political discourse is partly dependent on the contents and shape of the communicative expressions of the participants their cognition in wide sense as well as the power relationships between the participants (Chilton 2004;
Van dijk 2002. Issue description and the early warning signals around them are communicative expressions that will eventually have to find their place in this policy discourse
in order to be relevant 210. E. Amanatidou et al. proceedings. Additional information and leads are obtained by participative approaches,
As a starting point a frame of reference is conceptualised for the chosen policy domains. Signals are sought then that give a full or substantial future narrative with high impact for a certain policy level.
These elements give clues for further scanning of signals that may support or deny the possibility that the story will occur (the signals are known as secondary signals).
that may confirm or oppose the selected storylines. If the seconddar signals have manifested themselves in the period before the scanning was done,
and attracts a lot of policy attention the issue may suddenly head in a completely undirected way because of the occurreenc of wild cards or countervailing issues.
Many of the sophisticated community annotation systems that are used currently in biology are based on the wiki concept (Mons et al. 2008;
Stein 2008. In the SESTI project an attempt was made to set up a wiki that specialised in collecting voluntary descriptions from many authors on new emerging issues for science and technology.
because most of the contributors did not want to spend time writing new full-length articles on issues that had already been described elsewhere.
and is bound to the moment in which it is executed. Thus, there is a limited possibility for retrieving new information.
It is also crucial to select trusted and reliable twitterers (Pang 2010. Text-mining enables large amounts of textual informatiio to be assessed with specialised software.
and also a body of additional signals that are considered to be indicative of the start or development of their emergence.
The results of the scanning can also be a starting point for taking into account the areas of unknown unknowns by spotting gaps in the scan picture
which to establiis transparent and pluralistic processes for exploring scienttifi non-knowledge (Bo schen et al. 2010).
and commitment of participants are critical factors for success. The survey conducted in the SESTI project was confronted also with the limited time and visibility of the contributors.
when the fields are specified and the scanning starts from well-defined fields such as energy, conservation or science and policy (cf.
Czaplicka-Kolarz et al. 2009; Smith et al. 2010; Sutherland et al. 2010; 2011). ) Focusing on specific fields, surveys can deliver additional information on various side aspects related to the core issue.
The use of Twitter could be useful for the identification of signals and issues in multiple ways.
Twitter can be used as a source for signals and for tracing the way in which signals (especially in regard to potential scientific breakthrooughs are spread and taken up by different communities.
Twitter can also be used as an interactive tool. However, online software tools for clustering Twitter tweets are necessary, especially for the processing and analysis phases,
the ability to trace how signals evolve over time. In general, however, the potential of Twitter to become a main tool for retrieving future-oriented information is high as colleagues,
the speed of communication is ahead of the sheer time needed to think and get in the lab and work.
Mandavilli 2011) The blogosphere in general is expanding at an unprecedennte speed. With a better understanding of the blogosphher it would be possible to develop tools to use collective wisdom to scan future-related signals and emerging issues.
Clustering blog sites presents new challenges for information science (Agarwal et al. 2010) as no tools are yet available.
the timing of bringing up signals or emerging issues could be a crucial factor for their further consideration in the policy-making arena.
Timing seems to be a general challenge with early signal analysis. Due to the novelty of issues the evidence basis at the beginning is rather weak
As the signal starts to have visible negative impacts on its environment possible controversies and disruptions may emerge alongsiid a general frustration about the lost opportunity to be informed earlier about the potential upcoming developmennts This forms a difficult challenge for scanners who Table 2. Comparison of tools
and methods in horizon scanning. 215 want to be successful by giving the right alerts to policy-makers at the right time in order not to over-occupy their busy agendas.
Apart from timing, there are also challenges in bringing forward a potential emerging issue or early signal to policy-makers.
This may particularly be the case with issues which include controversies or require coordination and collaboration across different and segmennte policies In the cases where conflicts may arise even small investments in examining the issues may be blocked.
Overall, potential wild cards and emerging issues, including their early warning signals, have to fight for attention in the political discourse except for situations in which they fit
which occurred in Japan in March 2011.4. Evaluation of scanning approaches and methods The evaluation of the different approaches and methods faces several challenges.
i e. the interests of the client, the wider policy context which they are associated with, time and budget restrictions,
These combinatiion present different features in terms of the degree of automation of the tools that are used and the degree to
Table 3. Evaluation criteria for scanning approaches and methods Connections, clustering of weak signals and degree of relevance to a specific area Duration of weakness of signal, also associated with time at
and assess early warning signals that may indicate potential emerging issues from of a variety of media and sources.
specific for survey and conferencces large for focused expert review, literature review Duration: observation time Through reports, blogs, groups, social networks, Twitter, sites, etc.
observatiio time depends on participants) Reports as pdf, docs, rtf and parts from website, e g. RSS (Really Simple Syndication) feeds for text-mining.
Articles, websites, videos for focused expert review. Any other info piece for second-round scanning (observation time depends on scanner) Experts'knowledge;
literature; conferences for additional signal/issue selection and refinement of reference frame (observation time depends on participants
and scanner) Signal/issue selection criteria Predefined criteria based on sources other futurists use (sense of credibilitty
or alternative/contradictory descriptions that may lead to combined or meta descriptions Connections and clustering is made as reported in survey responses, literature and based on reviewers'expertise.
and clustering Cross-checking with results from recent foresight exercises Duration: observation time High Medium Medium As reported but also time series tracing possible in blogs, google etc.
As attached to raw sources for text-mining. In focused expert review via tracing back earlier signals
and communication of the most important issues at the right time is both a challenge and an absolute necessity.
as in The netherlands and the UK, important issues were identified that started causing severe damage in two to three years (van Rij 2010b.
even though economic models completely failed to forecast the financial crisis of 2007 8, even in the shortest term.
On the other hand, horizon scans in The netherlands and UK had spotted already the financial crisis two years before it started.
The special nature of horizon scanning activities points to the importance of continuity to increase the relevance, validity and timeliness of the information.
As Choo (2001) points out, horizon scanning is a long-term investment that needs a critical mass of talent and resources.
Notes 1. See<http://www. bis. gov. uk/foresight/our-work/horizonscanning-centre>accessed 21 december 2011.2.
See<http://app. hsc. gov. sg/public/www/home. aspx>accessed 8 september 2011.3. See<http://sesti. info/>accessed 8 september 2011.4.
No use was made from more advanced tools as web-crawler or spyware. 5. See<http//news google. com/news/advanced news search?
pz=1&cf=all&ned=us&hl=en>accessed 21 december 2011.6. See<http://www. google. com/insights/search/>accessed 21 december 2011.7.
See<http://www. bing. com/>accessed 21 december 2011.8. See<http://twitter. com/>accessed 21 december 2011.9.
Provided by Thomson Reuters<http://thomsonreuters. com/products services/science/science products/a-z/web of science/>accessed 21 december 2011.10.
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