time & dates

ART39.pdf

Tailoring Foresight to field specificities§Antoine Schoen a,,*Totti Ko nno la b, 1, Philine Warnke c, 2, Re'mi Barre'd, 3, Stefan Kuhlmann e, 4 a Universite

Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:

Available online 19 november 2010 A b s T R A c T Thepaperpresentsanapproachatimprovingtheimpact offoresightbysystematicallytaking into account the characteristics of the targeted research and innovation (R&i) domains when designing a Foresight exercise.

and learning capability could be improved substantially by tailoring the Foresight approach to the targeted innovation arena. 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

+31 053 489 3353/3350.5 PRIME=Policies for Research and Innovation in the Move towards the European research area, European Network of Excellence (2004 2009;

http://www. prime-noe. org/index. php (accessed November 7, 2009. Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures journal homepage:

first in the area of genetically modified plants and then for the domain of Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies. 2. Background and rationale 2. 1. Tailoring Foresight a revision During the last two decades the field of Foresight has developed a lot through practical experience

/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 233 All these results point to the fact that diverse innovation areas need diverse governance tools

It builds on a framework developed by Barre'(2007) in The french Futuris project 24. We suggest to extend this concept to the European level

But, undoubtedly, with the dynamics of the ERA building, a European R&i system is emerging,

/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 234 with extensive formal and informal consultation of stakeholders including scientists and research organisations.

and define the Foresight exercise as a project with a clear beginning and end. Hence, we exclude from our analyses Embedded foresight

Priority setting may, however, decrease the diversity of options that could challenge conventional approaches and dominant designs 29

e g. 35) may create pathdependdencie and locking-out alternative technological options 36. Here, Foresight can also contribute to the creative restructuring

/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 235 objectives matrix (Table 2). In each cell of the matrix, the Foresights do not have the same actors involved, nor the same perspectives, nor the same objectives.

%while e g. genomics has been growing for the last 10 years at 8, %and the recent rate of growth of nanoscience has been near to 14%.

/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 236 For instance, the progressive sliding of the field of biocatalysis away from‘catalysis'within chemistry towards biotechnologies illustrates an actual reconfiguration of a current knowledge area that is combining splitting and merging

then we will elaborate the designs of the Foresight exercises fitted to the specific Knowledge dynamics and institutional arrangements in these two fields. 5. 1. The case of genetically modified plants (GMP) After the completion of the human genome map in 2001,

(MON 810) has illustrated recently one more time. 10 Secondly, plant genomics is based a science discipline where industrial companies play a major part,

and biotechnology that was initiated by the European commission in 2003. It has produced a 20-year vision and a short,

-medium-and long-term Strategic research Agenda for Europe's plant sector setting out a consensus on the research needed to fulfil the vision.

The European union had approved a number of GM crops until late 1998, but growing public concern over their supposed environmental and health risks led several EU countries to demand the moratorium.

By late 1999 there were enough such countries to block any new approvals of GM produce.

9‘‘Lesogmface aux nouveaux paradigmes de la biologie'',meeting organised on February 11th and 12th 2009 in the framework of the ANR-OGM COBINA research project. 10 Decision announced by Ilse Aigner, federal ministry for agriculture, on April 14th 2009.

A. Schoen et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 237 and those ingredients traceable to their source.

In 2004, the European commission has lifted a 5-year moratorium on genetically modified produce. Since then, six countries Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary and Luxembourg have chosen to ban Monsanto MON 810 modified maize contradicting EU Commission position.

2) NGO and green movements have impeded strongly the development of markets for any products including GM component within Europe.

This feature is clear when the evolution of volume of scientific output(+200%over 10 years,

from 1996 to 2006) is compared with the changes occurring in‘‘all science''(50%over the same period),‘agricultural and biological sciences''(30),

/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 238 5. 1. 3. GMP: towards a Tailored foresight In the field of GM plants research we find a strong growth rate

and goals that was developed with a broad range of stakeholders including consumer and environmental organisations (Plants for the Future 2005).

The European Technology platform for Nanoelectronics European Nanoelectronics Initiative Advisory Council (ENIAC) was launched in 2004 with the mission to bring together all leading players in the field

The ERA NET‘‘Nanosci-ERA''is coordinating national programmes: is a Consortium of 17 national research agencies from 12 countries in the European research area

The high growth rate which characterises the field (the number of scientific publication has grown from 134%between 1998 and 2006) 46.

/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 239 5. 2. 3. N&n: towards a Tailored foresight In the realm of nano-related research we see a strong growth rate and at the same time a strong divergence.

and opening up may be useful to avoid early lock in into dominant paradigms that may later prove less fruitful.

this paper proposes a reasonably validated framework which beyond its acknowledged limitations addresses directly the difficult issue of the design of Foresight activities fit for the emerging European research area (ERA.

ERA is, in short, the integration/coordination of research and innovation policies between the EU and Member States 13 Mona:

Merging optics and nanotechnology A European roadmap for photonics and nanotechnologies 2005 2007. Exercise aimed to provide recommendations for EU R&d efforts as input for FP7 and Strategic research Agendas in two fields (Nanomaterials & Photonics.

/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 240 (including in variable geometry schemes. It follows that the Foresight function,

we suggest our methodology is applicable indeed for designing such ERA Foresight activities and contribute to address the challenge we face regarding both the ERA and Foresight.

Acknowledgements This paper is based on a workshop organised by the JRC-IPTS European foresight Action at Seville, Spain, June 2008.

We are grateful to all the participants for their comments and contributions in particular to Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Luke Georghiou, Jari Kaivo-oja, Philippe Laredo and Matthias Weber.

References 1 A. Bonaccorsi, Search Regimes and the Industrial Dynamics of Science, Minerva 46 (3)( 2008) 285 315.2 L. Georghiou, J. C. Harper, M. Keenan,

. Brown, K. Konrad, H. van Lente, The sociology of expectation in science and technology, Technology analysis & Strategic management 18 (3/4)( 2006) 285 298.7 B. De

insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.9 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber, Adaptive foresight:

navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 462 482.10 B.-A°.Lundvall (Ed.),National systems of Innovation:

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refining the co-evolutionary multilevel perspective, Technological forecasting and Social Change 72 (6)( 2005) 681 696.14 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of a useful theory of innovation

rethinking the role of policy, Enterprise and Innovation Management Studies 1 (1)( 2000) 73 102.17 O. Marsili, The Anatomy and Evolution of Industries:

(ERA), European commission, Luxembourg, 2008.19 D. Braun, Special issue on‘‘The political coordination of knowledge and innovation policies'',Science and Public policy 35 (4)( 2008.

the case of the European union, Journal of European Public policy 3 (3)( 1996) 318 338.22 S. Kuhlmann, Future governance of innovation policy in Europe three scenarios, Research policy 30

(6)( 2001) 953 976.23 R. Kaiser, H. Prange, Managing diversity in a system of multilevel governance:

the open method of co-ordination in innovation policy, Journal of European Public policy 11 (2)( 2004) 249 266.24 R. Barre',Essai d'interpre'tation de

Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1/2)( 2004) 4 32.26 A. Salo, T. Ko nno la, M. Hjelt, Responsiveness in Foresight management:

reflections from the Finnish food and drink industry, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1 2)( 2009) 70 88.27 T. Ko nno la, V

insights from the fostering of innovation ideas, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (5)( 2007) 608 626.28 J. Irvine, B. R. Martin, Foresight in Science:

and lock in by historical events, Economic Journal 99 (394)( 1989) 116 131.30 W. B. Arthur, Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy, University of Michigan Press

an analytical framework and key issues for research, Energy Policy 28 (9)( 2000) 625 640.32 A. Salo, T. Gustafsson, R. Ramanathan, Multicriteria methods for Technology foresight, Journal

of Forecasting 22 (2 3)( 2003) 235 255.33 M. Keenan, Identifying emerging generic technologies at the national level:

the UK experience, Journal of Forecasting 22 (2 3)( 2003) 129 160.34 B. R. Martin, R. Johnston, Technology foresight for Wiring up the National Innovation system.

evolutionary theory, network analysis and postsocialism, Regional Studies 31 (5)( 1997) 533 544.36 G. C. Unruh, Understanding carbon lock in, Energy Policy 28 (12)( 2000

reflections from a hydrogen Foresight project, Journal of Cleaner Production 15 (3)( 2007) 259 265.39 K. Cuhls, From forecasting to Foresight processes new participative Foresight activities in Germany, Journal

of Forecasting 22 (2 3)( 2003) 93 111.40 J. P. Salmenkaita, A. Salo, Emergent Foresight processes:

industrial activities in wireless communications, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (9)( 2004) 897 912.41 A. Bonaccorsi, Search Regimes and the Industrial Dynamics of Science, in:

Presentation at PRIME Annual Conference 2005,7 8 january, Manchester, 2005.42 A. Bonaccorsi, Explaining poor performance of European science:

institutions versus policies, Science and Public policy 34 (5)( 2007) 303 316. A. Schoen et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 241 43 S. Kuhlmann, ERA-Dynamics Project Strategic Report 2006 2007:

Knowledge dynamics, Institutions, and Policy in Europe, PRIME Network of Excellence, 2008.44 A. Schoen, P. van den Besselaar, L. Henriquez, P. Lare'do, D. Pardo, Search Regimes:

Case study on Chemistry (ERA Dynamics PRIME Project), 2009.45 P. van den Besselaar, A. Schoen, Knowledge dynamics: a network analytical approach, in:

European Strategies in Global economy'',Toulouse, July 7 9, 2008.46 B. Kahane, A. Delemarle, L. Villard, P. Lare'do, Knowledge dynamics and agglomeration phenomena:

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Policy 36 (6)( 2007) 813 831.49 A. Rip, H. te Kulve, Constructive technology assessment and Socio-Technical Scenarios, 2008.50 A. Rip, Folk theories of nanotechnologists, Science

as Culture 15 (4)( 2006) 349 365.51 T. Swierstra, A. Rip, Nano-ethics as NEST-ethics:

patterns of moral argumentation about new and emerging science and technology, Nanoethics 1 (1)( 2007) 3 20.

/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 242

ART4.pdf

The role of scanning in open intelligence systems Kermit M. Patton*Scan Program, SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United states Received 13 may 2004;

received in revised form 30 september 2004; accepted 1 october 2004 Abstract Every month, SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (SRIC-BI) professionals assemble more than 100 short abstracts of developments that they perceive to be signals of change, discontinuities, inflection points, outliers, or disruptive developments.

The effort is part of a continuous scanning process and Scan program that allows SRICBB to gauge the ongoing turbulent confluence of culture, commerce,

and technology that defines today's business environment. For more than 25 years, scanning has played an essential role in SRIC-BI's

and SRI International's foresight capabilities by providing a systematic means for surveying the broad external environment for change vectors.

kpatton@sric-bi. com, www. sric-bi. com. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 public opinion means that highly structured strategic plans are limiting if not downright dangerous.

For 25 years, SRI International and subsequently SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (SRIC-BI) have used a scanning system to provide foresight capabilities

Uncertainties and risks have proliferated during the past decade as a result of the increasing complexity of and turbulence in the marketplaces in

Q The K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1083 marketplace is a turbulent confluence of commercial, cultural,

because neurons have a relatively long bresetq time of 5 ms. But with an average of 1000 connections between each neuron and its neighbors,

Dorothy Leonard-Barton, in K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1084 her Wellsprings of Knowledge 5, maintains that the process of introducing external streams

which successful approaches and ideas from the past discourage employees from innovation. Scanning processes can provide quick, occasional doses of chaos to employees and managers.

the process operates continuously as it has at SRI International and SRIC-BI for the past 25 years.

Over time, participants learn that change rather than stability is the coin of the commercial realm

Items that defy conventional wisdom K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1085!

The abstracts are searchable by date, author, source, topic, or scanner. Users can assemble any number of abstracts on any topics into a customized set of abstracts.

K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1086 month the database administrator closes off submissions for the month and directs the continuing stream of abstracts into a new set for the next month.

SRIC-BI employees generate more than 100 abstracts each month. Typically between 20 and 25 employees contribute abstracts.

New employees at SRIC-BI generally participate in the scanning process for 6 months before managing to submit consistently valuable abstracts.

Moore's law predicted that chip 20 years ago not quite what we are looking for.

After 6 months the same employee might submit an abstract on the development of a microchip that contains system-on-a-chip components to enable Wimax wireless broadband access to homes and offices a much more interesting development in terms of enabling dramatic

Examples include abstracts that speculate about currently gestating technologies with the potential eventually to have an impact similar in scope to that of the Internet in the past 20 years.

Another abstract K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1087 helps clients reframe design issues by citing designer Dan Formosa

or manufacturing mechanisms is one of the latest arrivals to the abstract sets. Cultural topics are of huge importance in the abstract set

Ocean biologists studying the Sargasso Sea have discovered only recently 1. 2 million new genes (including 800 new genes for photoreceptors) representing 1800 new species. The Implications sections of these abstracts are far

In SRIC-BI's scanning system, each month's set of 100-plus abstracts serves as the starting point for a monthly open-ended discussion

but political or philosophical arguments simply waste the group's time. Lively exchanges of opinion are not uncommon.

Frequent calls by the meeting facilitator for new clusters of abstracts or discussion topics are necessary to mine the month's abstracts as thoroughly as possible for signals of change.

& Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1088 the abstracts'data points to make sure that the meeting does not degenerate into a discussion unrelated to the real-world marketplace

and bspeculativeq simply as a means of providing a perspective on a time frame for projected impacts.

K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1089 backgrounds, from technology to specialties in consumer behavior, from engineering to anthropology,

K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1090 Employees participate primarily on a voluntary basis

Learning what constitutes a good Scan abstract can take 6 months to a year of attending Scan meetings.

Learning to identify unique clusters of abstracts can take a year or more. Experience on the part of Scan meeting participants also makes for a smooth meeting,

and experience to assist companies in creating their own internal K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1091 scanning systems.

To sustain the process beyond 6 months requires a strong commitment from the organization to make the process work

Through the years scanning has played an essential role in SRIC-BI's foresight capabilities by providing a systematic means for surveying the broad external environment for change vectors.

Strategy & Business 34 (2003 Spring) 71.2 Stephen Haeckel, Adaptive Enterprise: Creating and Leading Sense

-and-Respond Organizations, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, 1999, p. 9. 3 Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines, Penguin Books, New york, 1999, p. 103.4

Building and Sustaining the Sources of Innovation, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, 1995, p. 135.6 Eric D. Beinhocker, Sarah Kaplan, Tired of strategic planning?

Mckinsey Quarterly 2 (2002) 48 57.7 Mark Buchanan, Power laws and the new science of complexity management, Strategy & Business 34 (2003 Spring) 76.

K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1092 8 Jessie Scanlon, Big business:

rising obesity rates add up to a growing industry in plus-size design, I. D. 65 (2004 March/April) 61 63.

since 1978 and has managed the Scan process since 1991. Patton is available at kpatton@sric-bi. com. More information about SRIC-BI's Scan program is available at www. sric-bi. com. K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005

) 1082 1093 1093

ART40.pdf

From priority-setting to articulation of demand: Foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy Luke Georghiou a,,

which sometime ago called‘‘wiring up the innovation system''4. In recent years there has been growth in for regional innovation

Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:

Available online 18 november 2010 A b s T R A c T The paper addresses the application of foresight to research and innovation policy and strategy.

We note the emergence of a combination of corrective, disruptive and creative roles. 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Daheim and Uerz 7 at the Second FTA Conference in Seville conference noted the emergence of open foresight as a trend,

From this analysis we may conclude already that foresight has moved on from the type of objective setting that typified the large national foresight programmes of the 1990s.

L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 244 can see a polarisation of approaches between, on the one hand,

the resources in question being those of finance, time, infrastructure etc. In science and technology policy an OECD report identified three types of priorities 8:

This may exist in advance (for example the current headings used for funding) or may itself be the result of a process.

The process is typically a broader sociopolitical interaction of supply side technology or science push with demand side Pull in an unstructured process the various interest groups press their case

In the simplest form, for example the US Critical technologies Program which ran from 1989 to 1998,

and that the programme moved sharply towards its second, networking, objective, which saw priorities (in the sense of funded areas) emerge as bottom up projects at a much more focussed level.

The 2 This section of the paper was developed initially for a presentation Foresight in Priority Setting Towards a European Initiative at a workshop‘‘Shaping the European Dimension of Foresight"28 february 1 march 2005, Brussels ftp://ftp

L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 245 issue is how actionable such lists are.

a decade earlier an attempt to construct matrices of such interdependence had collapsed under its own weight the idea was pursued not further.

Priorities and‘‘posteriorities'':''A well-known phenomenon is the extreme reluctance of panels to identify negative priorities

or‘‘posteriorities''from which resources may be transferred to positive priorities. The same is true to some extent for programmes

. 3 There is a certain irony that after 2 decades energy has returned as a key priority

L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 246 relevant to end-users (e g. personal computing.

In some parts of Eastern europe priorities are an instrument to move towards a contemporary portfolio and away from the materials science/defence orientation of the Soviet era.

as well as the integration of accession states into the European research area (ERA)''19. Havas and Keenan have noted a tendency in such countries for science systems to be disconnected from innovation

For example the Romanian Science and Technology foresight 2005 sought to reconstruct the RDI system around long-term perspectives.

and may miss crucial emerging attributes of research and research actors in the knowledge society''.''A number of foresight exercises have addressed actors.

A review for the 2006 FTA conference noted an increasing use of scenarios for the sector in the face of a number of pressures

Simpler definitions of innovation present it as‘‘the successful exploitation of new ideas''.''4 However, 4 See for example UK Innovation White paper 27.

L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 247 success for business at least is defined very clearly in market terms,

It has long been understood that foresight in particular has a role in building shared strategies see Georghiou in 1996:‘‘

where coordinated action over a period of years is needed to put the system in place.''''30;

in recent years there has been a growing recognition that systemic failures are just as likely to impede successful innovation.

and technology that may feature in priorities exercises but rather involves the mastery or areas such as training,

An early example of this concept was the Finnish Governments knowledge cluster programme of the mid-1990s.

J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 248 actors which are important for innovation.

While the direct use of foresight was documented not at the time in that example it is interesting to note that one of the most successful has evolved now into an ERA NET‘‘Wood Wisdom''dealing with the integration of forestry and wood material science and engineering.

which then may evolve to become cheaper and more effective such that they can be rolled out to other markets.

regulators of potential technological and/or socioeconomic situations which regulation may promote; and builders of clusters or platforms of the various kinds of linkages which can bind them together in future market and technology development. 5. Conclusion:

future for foresight in research and innovation policy Rationales for foresight activity have evolved in recent years to feature a range of research

J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 249 engineering major changes required in EU research and innovation policy in the coming years.

if the lessons of the past are forgotten. On the other hand the more embedded role as an instrument of articulating

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. Klusacek, Technology foresight in the Czech republic, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1 2)( 2004) 89 105.10 K. Klusacek, Key technologies for the Czech National research Programme, in:

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Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 112 130.19 P. Crehan, J. Cassingena Harper, Foresight in smaller countries, in:

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, S. Schneider, Improving the business impact of foresight, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 339.29 P. Becker, Corporate Foresight in Europe:

A First Overview, Commission of the European communities, EUR 20921, October 2002, p. 10.30 L. Georghiou, The UK Technology foresight Programme, Futures 28 (4)( 1996) 361.31

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Practices Favourable to R&d and Innovation, European commission, September 2005, EUR 21793 EN. L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 251

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