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ART5.pdf

Received 13 may 2004; received in revised form 30 september 2004; accepted 1 october 2004 Abstract This paper contributes to the development of methods for mapping

and understanding the dynamics of emerging technologies. Our key concept is the notion of irreversibilities that emerge in the ongoing activities of researchers, institutes, policy makers and firms.

Emerging irreversibilities denote the first socio-cognitive patterns that decrease the fluidity and openness, and that, eventually constrain

D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Emerging technology; Irreversibility; Technology assessment; Expectations; Agenda building 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:

10.1016/j. techfore. 2004.10.003 T Corresponding author. Tel.:++31 30 2537462. E-mail addresses: r. vanmerkerk@geo. uu. nl (R. O. van Merkerk) 8 h. vanlente@geo. uu. nl (H. van Lente.

Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1. Introduction Assessing emerging technologies is a necessary,

The preceding informal network was formed in 2001 and recently, in November 2003, it received a substantial funding of 95 Million Euro by the Dutch government,

R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1095 2. Method:

In 1999 a new specialised journal, the Journal of Nanoparticle Research, was established. This indicates the crystallisation of a new scientific community.

because it R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1096 has changed the perception

or an industry (as in the case of chip manufacturing) should follow for a certain period (say, 10 years).

The second level refers to a 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

2000 2001 2002 Fig. 1. Number of times dnanotubet is mentioned in article titles (Picarta. 3 The fact that we use the emergence of this specialised journal for this paper is the fact that nanotubes is one of the major topics in this journal.

R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1097 technological field, with its dedicated journals, conferences and communities.

H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1098 3. Case: nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes Before explaining the details about nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes,

and large firms invested over $2 billion in nanotechnology worldwide in 2002 13. No single definition can be given for nanotechnology,

One of the first landmarks is the Nobel prize discovery of a new carbon molecule containing sixty carbon atoms (C60) in the shape of a ball in 1985 (also called a bucky ball) 15.

R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1099 other hand there are growing concerns about the development

For example, for personal computers, you can continue your work where you left it the previous day,

In 2000, Rueckes et al. Charles Lieber's group, Harvard university, Cambridge, Massachusetts) 16 published the architecture (Fig. 5) of how to make these nonvolatile memories based on the suspended SWNT crossbar (proof of principle.

R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1100 Nantero (US Patent No. 20030165074.

G. Schmergel, T. Rueckes and B. M. Segal founded Nantero in 2000 (Rueckes being one of the inventors of the proof of principle.

With this strategy they have been successful in getting several Venture capital grants over the first few years of existence 19,20.

This research agenda shifted over the years towards the production capacity controlled growth and applications of nanotubes.

R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1101 However, there are other voices that agitate against this.

and SWNT) that is expected for the coming years. Arnall 13, page 14 states here (taking a market perspective:

However, the fact that nanotubes offer great promises for various industries is acknowledged. 3. 1. 2. Technological field After the discovery of the single-walled nanotube in 1993,

In 1998 Cees Dekker's group 31 at the Delft University of Technology (Netherlands) turned a nanotube into a transistor (the basic building block of computer chips.

However, the expectations are that commercialising this option still lies far ahead (at least 10 years.

In 1999, Jong-min Kim et al. at the Samsung Advanced Institute of technology in Suwon Fig. 6. bonq and boffq states of a suspended SWNT crossbar 16.

R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1102 (Korea) did just that.

In 2002, James Heath's group at the University of California (Los angeles) reported that guiding the growth with an electric field could solve the problem of growing straight nanotubes 25.

R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1103 reported the latter method in 2001 26.

however these expectations are expressed 2 years later, after the new scientific results, which were obtained in the meantime. At the market side, other dynamics are present.

Nantero was founded in 2000 and they received the first Venture capital grant in 2001 19. The fact that Nantero received this grant shows that the investors

based on their expectations, show confidence in a success of Nantero. In May 2003 a prototype of 10 Gb is ready

and produced by standard semiconductor processes 28. In September 2003 Nantero receives the second Venture capital grant 20.

In the same month Nantero shows compatibility with lithography equipment from ASML 18. In February 2004 Nantero 29 states they are on track for NRAM development.

Here we see that Nantero over the years has built on the expectations that nonvolatile memories will be commercialised soon.

These expectations were formulated in the following way. In 2002 Rueckes et al. 16 state: bplans for molecular electronics, may be realized soon.

Q In 2001 Nantero 19 states: bthe company expects to deliver a product that will replace all existing forms of memory.

Q In May 2003 Nantero 28 states: bcreating this enormous array of suspended nanotubes using standard semiconductor processes brings us much closer to our end goal of mass producing NRAM chips.

Q In September 2003 Nantero 28 states: buniversal memory has been a dream for the semiconductor industry for decades we fell that Nantero's innovative approach using carbon nanotubes

and a nanoelectromechanical design can make that dream a reality in near term. Q In 2004 Nantero 29 states:

bthe proprietary manufacturing approach will enable for the first time the ultra-large scale integration (ULSI) of carbon nanotube-based devices in a deep sub-micron semiconductor fabrication line.

In the near future, these innovations will allow NRAMK to be one of the first mass manufactured nanotechnology products.

Q Within these expectations we see a shift from discovery (2000), via a prototype (May 2003) to manufacturing a proprietary approach (2004).

Hence, the developments at Nantero show a clear way towards commercialisation. During these few years Nantero received a rather extensive media attention (37 articles in total) from technology as well as business journals.

This is a clear sign that the media see Nantero as a promising company to take nanotechnology to the market.

and especially the second round in 2003 is a sign that the investors expect Nantero to succeed,

Nantero has taken up this challenge since 2000. Subsequent results in basic research as well as from Nantero have reinforced the expectations.

R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1104 3. 2. Tracing agenda building

Some initiatives have started over the last few years; we will mention the three most striking ones.

which it hopes to bring before a United nations agency in 2004. This should create a new mechanism that will make it possible for the international community to monitor the development of new technologies whose introduction could affect (positively and/or negatively) human health

Cees Dekker's group at Delft University, showed in 1998 31 that a single semiconductor nanotube could be turned into a transistor.

and start to work on solving the problems at R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1105 hand.

Because not all problems were solved over the last years, Nantero adapted a (proprietary) hybrid solution that allows for some errors,

So, over the last few years some problems were solved and others were overcome by adapting the design.

For the coming years Nantero not only aims at getting their product to the market, but also improving the existing technology to achieve even higher densities of suspended crossbars,

as stated in May 2003 28: bthis process was used to make a 10 Gb array now,

Over the years two rounds of Venture capital were received and successful collaboration with ASML was established. In the coming years Nantero aims at getting their product to the market and to improve the existing technology.

Nanotubes used in nonvolatile memories Step by step the problems around producing predetermined nanotubes and applying them for nonvolatile memories are solved (straight growth and deposition).

R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1106 These insights and empirical findings give the opportunity to trace emerging irreversibilities

The scientific community (related to the application of nanotubes in electronic devices) changed in the sense that since 1993 more and more attention was drawn to nanotubes.

R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1107 As mentioned in Section 2,

Technology assessment (TA) started in the late 1960s as an dearly warningt method 33, merely to inform parliaments about possible negative effects of new technologies.

During the 1980's, TA developed towards a policy instrument, where TA is used to support policy-making.

In the late 1980s the notion of constructive technology assessment (CTA) became apparent in Europe. Many different types of CTA exist depending on the audience, phase of technological development, etc.

but ceased to exist in 1995. R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1108 development of dusefult applications of technology, CTA

indirectly aims at influencing the technology in development via the involved actors. We think the tracing of emerging irreversibilities is an important next step in the development of TA,

Economy, Pinter, London, 1984, pp. 78 101.4 J. M. Utterback, Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, 1994.16 For example, one of the components

R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1109 5 H. Van Lente, Forceful futures:

a Sociology of Prospective Techno-Science, Ashgate Publishing company, London, 2000, pp. 43 64.6 M. Callon, Technological conception and adoption network:

Managing Technology in Society, Pinter, London, 1995, pp. 307 330.7 A. Rip, R. Kemp, Technological change, in:

Human Choice and Climate change, vol. 2, Batelle Press, Columbus, 1998, pp. 327 399.8 M. C. Roco, Nanoparticles and nanotechnology research, Journal of Nanoparticle Research

1 (1999) 1 6. 9 H. Van Lente, A. Rip, The rise of membrane technology.

From rhetorics to social reality, Social Studies of Science 2 (1998) 221 254.10 H. Van Lente.

A Technical, Political and Institutional Map of Emerging technologies, Greenpeace Environmental Trust, London, 2003, July 14 Royal Society, Royal Academy of Engineering, Nanoscience and nanotechnologies:

Buckminsterfullerene, Nature 318 (1985) 162 163.16 T. Rueckes, K. Kim, E. Joselevich, G. Y. Tseng, C.-L. Cheung, C. M

. Lieber, Carbon nanotube-based nonvolatile random access memory for molecular computing, Science 289 (2000) 94 97.17 T. W. Odom, J.-l. Huang, P

. Kim, C. M. Lieber, Atomic structure and electronic properties of single-walled nanotubes, Nature 391 (1998) 62 64.18 Nantero, Nantero, Inc. announces collaboration

Nantero Press release (September 2003. 19 Nantero, Nantero, Inc. announces $6mm in funding aims to rapidly develop nanotube-based universal memory.

Nantero Press release (October 2001. 20 Nantero, Nantero, Inc. announces $10. 5mm in funding developing nanotube-based nonvolatile RAM technology for licensing.

Nantero Press release (September 2003. 21 P. Ball, Roll up for the revolution, Nature 414 (2001)( November.

22 ETC group, The big down, Atomtech: Technologies Converging at the Nanoscale, 2003 (January. 23 P. G. Collins, P. Avouris, Nanotubes for electronics, Scientific American 283 (6)( 2000 (December)) 62 69.24 Cientifica:

The Nanotechnology Opportunity Report. 2nd edition (June 2003. 25 M. R. Diehl, S n. Yaliraki, R. A. Beckman, M. Barahona, J. R. Heath, Self-assembled, deterministic carbon nanotube wiring

networks, Angewandte Chemie International Edition 41 (2)( 2002) 353 356.26 Y. Huang, X. Duan, Q. Wei, C. M. Lieber, Directed

assembly of one-dimensional nanostructures into functional networks, Science 291 (2001) 630 633.27 P. Ball, Cylinders make circuits spontaneously, Nature News Service (2002)( January.

28 Nantero, Nantero, Inc. creates an array of ten billion nanotubes bits on single wafer standard semiconductor processes used.

Nantero Press release (May 2003. 29 Nantero, Nantero's Dr. Thomas Rueckes garners awards and acknowledges company on track for NRAM development.

Nantero Press release (February 2004. 30 ETC group, Playing god in the Galapagos, News Release (2004)( March), Issue 84.31 S. J. Tans, A r. M. Verschueren, C. Dekker, Room-temperature

transistor based on a single carbon nanotube, Nature 393 (1998) 49 52.32 A. Rip, T. J. Misa, T. J.,J. Schot, Managing Technology

in Society. The Approach of Constructive technology assessment, Pinter Publishers, London, 1995.33 R. Smits, A. Leyten, Technology assessment, Waakhond of speurhond?

Translation: technology assessment: watchdog or tracker dog. Dissertation, Zeist, Kerckebosch, The netherlands (1991. 34 J. W. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technology Forecasting and Social Change 54 (1997) 251 268.

R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1110 35 F. W. Geels, Towards sociotechnical scenarios

and reflexive anticipation: Using patterns and regularities in technology dynamics, in: K. H. Sørensen, R. Williams (Eds.

Shaping technology, Guiding Policy: Concepts, Spaces and Tools, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, 2002, pp. 359 385.

Rutger van Merkerk is currently a Phd student (Copernicus Institute for Sustainability and Innovation, University of Utrecht,

As invited professor in philosophy and sociology of technology he stayed 6 months at the University of Oviedo, Spain.

From 1997 until 1999 he was research manager at KPMG Inspire Foundation, a think tank of the KPMG consulting firm,

H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1111

ART50.pdf

Linking territorial foresight and urban planning Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell and Leticia Redondo Abstract Purpose This article aims to show the opportunity

Findings Major findings are obtained on the feasibility of a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events that may affect the natural environment and the socioeconomic fabric of a given territory.

century and its full development during the twentieth century, one of the key concerns of urban planning has been to foresee the future and limit uncertainty.

The oblivion of future studies in the urban planning field was denounced several years ago by practitioners and researchers (Isserman, 1985;

Wachs, 2001. Why do urban planners no longer think in visionary terms? Recent research in Spain (Ferna'ndez Gu ell et al.

2009-2011) has shown that most public agencies in charge of urban and regional planning, as well as private consultants conducting professional work in that field,

PAGE 316 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 316-335, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited, ISSN 1463-6689 DOI

In the second half of the twentieth century, urban planning abandoned its visionary origins and became more technocratic,

favouring the use of quantitative forecasts, based on sophisticated algorithms and mathematical models (Hall, 1996; de Tera'n, 1996.

However, the profound socioeconomic changes experienced by most cities in the 1960's and 1970's produced gross mistakes in urban predictions.

Continuous failures in the use of forecasting methods damaged the reputation of urban planners and seemed to show the impossibility of predicting urban phenomena based on scientific rules and regular patterns.

By the end of the twentieth century, this situation had aggravated. Socio-demographic, economic and technological changes were taking place at a fast speed with nonlinear patterns

In recent years, the pre-eminence of collaborative planning has added to the detriment of futures studies.

VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 317 3. The new concept of territorial foresight Three arguments are given to support the use of futures studies.

and turbulence that will characterise our cities in the twenty-first Century. In this context many traditional analytical tools will be of no help to urban planners,

Second, the social debate inherent to urban planning and the need for stakeholder collaboration can be facilitated through a mutually beneficial symbiosis between futures studies and urban planning (Cole, 2001.

Third, there is a tight relationship between futures studies and strategic planning (Ferna'ndez Gu ell, 2011. The need to think about the future

''According to several authors (Ferna'ndez Gu ell, 2006; Gavigan and Scapolo, 2001), territorial foresight can be defined as a systematic, participatory,

future intelligence gathering and vision-building process aimed at present-day decision making and mobilising joint initiatives in the urban and territorial realm.

Territorial foresight involves the implementation of five essential elements at a small geographic scale, in

Figure 1 Conceptual framework for urban planning PAGE 318 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. Participation.

As a matter of fact, in the last few years territorial foresight has gathered increasing attention from various European public bodies.

The European commission's Foresight for Regional development Network (2001) published A Practical Guide to Regional foresight, which documented nine regional foresight exercises.

2001). ) The European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007) has published also the findings of its project‘‘Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe'',in

which three spatial scenarios were set out for the horizon 2030 (European foresight Platform, 20115). Finally, the European foresight Platform, another European commission funded body, has made an intense effort to compile several regional foresight exercises within its Knowledge sharing Platform (European foresight Platform, 2011.

Despite the well-deserved interest and merit of the previous references, specialized literature still shows a substantial divorce between the scope and content of foresight exercises and the specific needs of urban planning.

On the one hand, most foresight exercises by social scientists are usually based on general narratives that are intellectually stimulating but rarely of much help to the physical planner for making decisions in the urban realm.

The proposed approach shows the way that a future urban vision can be VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 319 translated into practical, measurable strategies to guide territorial development in the long term.

and urban planning PAGE 320 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 because all the elements are used in an articulated and coherent way, with a foresight exercise as a solid starting point.

which social attitudes towards sustainable development were explored in the Spanish context for the horizon 2025 (Fundacio'n OPTI, 2007).

Since the Brundtland Commission defined sustainable development as‘‘the ability to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs''(World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987),

this concept has gained universal acceptance by the general public, socioeconomic agents and politicians (United nations, 1992;

World Summit for Social development, 1995; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2001. However, the reciprocal relations that may develop between the sustainable development paradigm

and the general behaviour of society have not been assessed rigorously. The lack of studies about this issue is primarily due to two major difficulties:

its complexity and its uncertainty. Scenario design was chosen from among all the foresight tools because it provided an adequate management of the topic's complexity and uncertainty while at the same time unfolding alternative futures.

Scenario design is a foresight technique that has been used widely and documented (Godet, 1993; van der Heijden, 1996;

Schwartz, 1991. It is eminently qualitative, it combines intuition and rational analysis, and it requires the collaboration of a group of experts.

For most foresight practitioners, scenario development is the archetypal product of future studies because it is profoundly creative and capable of handling uncertainty.

2. identify and assess change trends that may affect sustainable development; and 3. design future scenarios for the evolution of sustainable development.

plausible representation of the alternative futures into which the SD concept may evolve by the year 2025.

green paradigm (circa 2025. This scenario takes place when there is both a proactive and a favourable response by public and private agents to SD and also an abundance of all types of resources required to achieve sustainable development.

The VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 321‘‘green paradigm''is the manifestation of an environmentally aware society, in

and diversified than 20 years ago when it was dominated by the construction and tourism sectors.

predator development (circa 2025. This scenario occurs when resources of all types are abundant, but at the same time public and private agents have either a slow or a passive reaction to sustainability challenges.‘‘

back to basics (circa 2025. In this scenario, there is a significant shortage of all resource types due to a prolonged recession,

In this scenario, Spanish society suffers a deep disenchantment with the socioeconomic model that prevailed at the end of the twentieth century.

For several Figure 3 Future scenarios for sustainable development PAGE 322 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 years

Forlearn Online Guide (n d.)and Millennium Project (n d.))shows that most scenarios exercises conclude with a description of the geopolitical, economic, societal and technological contexts.

is used to guide the implications analysis. Functional implications of Scenario A (2025). The‘‘green paradigm''scenario reflects a proactive social response to SD

and wish to have a voice of their Figure 4 Scenario A‘‘green paradigm''VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 323 own in the planning process.

Functional implications of Scenario B (2025. The‘‘predator development''scenario evolves when resources are abundant,

They mostly provide general guidelines about sustainable development that may or may not be followed by local governments. Municipal policies are implemented strictly through norms and regulations.

Figure 5 Scenario B‘‘predator development''PAGE 324 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Conditions inherent to Scenario B favour a local governance model that is opaque

Functional implications of Scenario C (2025. The‘‘back to basics''scenario takes place when economic and environmental crises are recurrent,

its major drawback Figure 6 Scenario C‘‘back to basics''VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 325 being the threat of majorities imposing decisions on minority

2005; Meadows, 1998) is established to assess the potential impact of each future scenario on urban development patterns (see Table I). A base-line scenario (2010) is estimated,

using current statistics provided by various public sources. Projections for the year 2025 are displayed using diverse tools and analysis methods.

The ultimate purpose of these parameters is to translate functional implications into quantitative values, so that their systematic tracking can lead to corrective measures. 4. 4 Step 4:

Figure 7 shows the current physical status (2010) of the study area, composed of four municipalities Cercedilla, Becerril de la Sierra, El Boalo and Navacerrada with 21,500

Spatial implications of Scenario A (2025. The predominant philosophy of the‘‘green paradigm''scenario will be to thrive in economic and social terms with lower consumption of energy, water and natural resources.

Spatial implications of Scenario B (2025. In the‘‘predator development''scenario, population growth coupled with strong economic development

making it PAGE 326 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Table I Main scenarios indicators 2025 Indicators Measurement unit 2010 Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Analytical methods and tools used for estimating indicators Society Population growth K

hab(%annual) 0. 98 Medium-low 0. 6 High-medium 1. 6 Negative 20.5 Population projections Urban density inhab/km2 135

Variation in population over a year, expressed as a percentage of the difference of the number of individuals in the total population at the beginning of that period Urban density.

Difference of immigrants and emigrants of an area in a year divided per 1, 000 inhabitants (considered on midterm population) Dependency ratio.

Megawatts hour of electricity per inhabitant consumed in a year Economic growth. Increase of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) or other measures of aggregate income, typically reported as the annual rate of change in real GDP Environment Selective collection of solid waste.

Area of primary-production land needed to support the resource use of the dwellers on urban land VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 327 difficult to decouple the increasing environmental impact.

Spatial implications of Scenario C (2025. In the‘‘back to basics''scenario, sustainable development will be imperative due to the lack of energy resources and low economic activity.

Figure 7 Current spatial scenario (2010) PAGE 328 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. 5 Step 5:

Figure 8 Spatial implications of Scenario A (2025) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 329 B Build a new economic model that is environment-friendly

Figure 9 Spatial implications of Scenario B (2025) PAGE 330 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 B Pursue a massive incorporation of new technologies into public administration to improve

Figure 10 Spatial implications of Scenario C (2025) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 331 5. Applied approach to territorial foresight The proposed method to reconcile territorial

foresight with urban planning was developed over a five-year period. Due to the scarcity of research resources and the complexity of the topic, progress had to be attained through a slow, piecemeal effort in different research projects and academic activities.

2009-2011. Nearly 20 personal interviews were made with planning practitioners and public officials in Spain.

and their perceived barriers to the implementation of these studies. 2. Scenarios regarding social attitudes towards sustainable development were adopted from the foresight exercise carried out by Fundacio'n OPTI in 2007.

2009 More than 40 local stakeholders participated in the study through eight thematic groups and determined the scenario implications for the city's future development.

2007). ) This project explored development trends in the metropolitan peripheries of Madrid, paying special attention to environmentally sensitive areas in the Guadarrama mountain range.

and experience gathered over the last five years. These findings are grouped into two sets. The first group of findings relate to the advisability of changing the Spanish urban development model

PAGE 332 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 B All public administrations European, national regional and local will have to be responsible

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About the authors Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell is an Architect and Urban Planner, Deputy Director of the Urban and Regional planning Department,

and a Member of the Research group GIAUÞS, based at the Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid.

He has a Bachelor's degree in Architecture from the Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid as well as a Master's and a Phd in Urban and Regional planning from Texas A&m University.

He was a Senior Manager of Strategic Services at Andersen consulting (1988-1998) and a Senior Partner at Gu ell & Partners Consulting (1998-2005.

Presently, he is a full-time Professor at the Urban and Regional planning Department of Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid and foresight advisor at Fundacio'n OPTI.

He has been a consultant for the European commission, the PAGE 334 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Inter-American Development Bank and the United nations Industrial Development Organization.

His professional and academic interests are focussed on strategic planning, territorial foresight and governance studies. He is the author of several articles and books related to strategic planning and foresight tools.

In 2010 she started to work as a researcher in the field of futures studies, focusing on the development of an innovative foresight approach to identify major trends

VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 335 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:

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