The role of scanning in open intelligence systems Kermit M. Patton*Scan Program, SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United states Received 13 may 2004;
received in revised form 30 september 2004; accepted 1 october 2004 Abstract Every month, SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (SRIC-BI) professionals assemble more than 100 short abstracts of developments that they perceive to be signals of change, discontinuities, inflection points, outliers, or disruptive developments.
The effort is part of a continuous scanning process and Scan program that allows SRICBB to gauge the ongoing turbulent confluence of culture, commerce,
and technology that defines today's business environment. For more than 25 years, scanning has played an essential role in SRIC-BI's
and SRI International's foresight capabilities by providing a systematic means for surveying the broad external environment for change vectors.
D 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Scanning process; Open intelligence systems; SRIC-BI 1. The premise Predicting the future is impossible.
and changes in cultural factors and 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
kpatton@sric-bi. com, www. sric-bi. com. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 public opinion means that highly structured strategic plans are limiting if not downright dangerous.
For 25 years, SRI International and subsequently SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (SRIC-BI) have used a scanning system to provide foresight capabilities
Q The K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1083 marketplace is a turbulent confluence of commercial, cultural,
Dorothy Leonard-Barton, in K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1084 her Wellsprings of Knowledge 5, maintains that the process of introducing external streams
the process operates continuously as it has at SRI International and SRIC-BI for the past 25 years.
Items that defy conventional wisdom K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1085!
The abstracts are searchable by date, author, source, topic, or scanner. Users can assemble any number of abstracts on any topics into a customized set of abstracts.
K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1086 month the database administrator closes off submissions for the month and directs the continuing stream of abstracts into a new set for the next month.
SRIC-BI employees generate more than 100 abstracts each month. Typically between 20 and 25 employees contribute abstracts.
New employees at SRIC-BI generally participate in the scanning process for 6 months before managing to submit consistently valuable abstracts.
Moore's law predicted that chip 20 years ago not quite what we are looking for.
After 6 months the same employee might submit an abstract on the development of a microchip that contains system-on-a-chip components to enable Wimax wireless broadband access to homes and offices a much more interesting development in terms of enabling dramatic
Examples include abstracts that speculate about currently gestating technologies with the potential eventually to have an impact similar in scope to that of the Internet in the past 20 years.
Another abstract K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1087 helps clients reframe design issues by citing designer Dan Formosa
Ocean biologists studying the Sargasso Sea have discovered only recently 1. 2 million new genes (including 800 new genes for photoreceptors) representing 1800 new species. The Implications sections of these abstracts are far
Frequent calls by the meeting facilitator for new clusters of abstracts or discussion topics are necessary to mine the month's abstracts as thoroughly as possible for signals of change.
& Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1088 the abstracts'data points to make sure that the meeting does not degenerate into a discussion unrelated to the real-world marketplace
K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1089 backgrounds, from technology to specialties in consumer behavior, from engineering to anthropology,
K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1090 Employees participate primarily on a voluntary basis
Learning what constitutes a good Scan abstract can take 6 months to a year of attending Scan meetings.
Learning to identify unique clusters of abstracts can take a year or more. Experience on the part of Scan meeting participants also makes for a smooth meeting,
and experience to assist companies in creating their own internal K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1091 scanning systems.
To sustain the process beyond 6 months requires a strong commitment from the organization to make the process work
Through the years scanning has played an essential role in SRIC-BI's foresight capabilities by providing a systematic means for surveying the broad external environment for change vectors.
Strategy & Business 34 (2003 Spring) 71.2 Stephen Haeckel, Adaptive Enterprise: Creating and Leading Sense
-and-Respond Organizations, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, 1999, p. 9. 3 Ray Kurzweil, The Age of Spiritual Machines, Penguin Books, New york, 1999, p. 103.4
Building and Sustaining the Sources of Innovation, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, 1995, p. 135.6 Eric D. Beinhocker, Sarah Kaplan, Tired of strategic planning?
Mckinsey Quarterly 2 (2002) 48 57.7 Mark Buchanan, Power laws and the new science of complexity management, Strategy & Business 34 (2003 Spring) 76.
K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1092 8 Jessie Scanlon, Big business:
rising obesity rates add up to a growing industry in plus-size design, I. D. 65 (2004 March/April) 61 63.
since 1978 and has managed the Scan process since 1991. Patton is available at kpatton@sric-bi. com. More information about SRIC-BI's Scan program is available at www. sric-bi. com. K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005
) 1082 1093 1093
From priority-setting to articulation of demand: Foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy Luke Georghiou a,,
which sometime ago called‘‘wiring up the innovation system''4. In recent years there has been growth in for regional innovation
Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
Available online 18 november 2010 A b s T R A c T The paper addresses the application of foresight to research and innovation policy and strategy.
We note the emergence of a combination of corrective, disruptive and creative roles. 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
www. elsevier. com/locate/futures 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:
From this analysis we may conclude already that foresight has moved on from the type of objective setting that typified the large national foresight programmes of the 1990s.
L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 244 can see a polarisation of approaches between, on the one hand,
This may exist in advance (for example the current headings used for funding) or may itself be the result of a process.
The process is typically a broader sociopolitical interaction of supply side technology or science push with demand side Pull in an unstructured process the various interest groups press their case
In the simplest form, for example the US Critical technologies Program which ran from 1989 to 1998,
The 2 This section of the paper was developed initially for a presentation Foresight in Priority Setting Towards a European Initiative at a workshop‘‘Shaping the European Dimension of Foresight"28 february 1 march 2005, Brussels ftp://ftp
L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 245 issue is how actionable such lists are.
L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 246 relevant to end-users (e g. personal computing.
For example the Romanian Science and Technology foresight 2005 sought to reconstruct the RDI system around long-term perspectives.
and may miss crucial emerging attributes of research and research actors in the knowledge society''.''A number of foresight exercises have addressed actors.
A review for the 2006 FTA conference noted an increasing use of scenarios for the sector in the face of a number of pressures
L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 247 success for business at least is defined very clearly in market terms,
It has long been understood that foresight in particular has a role in building shared strategies see Georghiou in 1996:‘‘
where coordinated action over a period of years is needed to put the system in place.''''30;
in recent years there has been a growing recognition that systemic failures are just as likely to impede successful innovation.
and technology that may feature in priorities exercises but rather involves the mastery or areas such as training,
An early example of this concept was the Finnish Governments knowledge cluster programme of the mid-1990s.
J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 248 actors which are important for innovation.
which then may evolve to become cheaper and more effective such that they can be rolled out to other markets.
regulators of potential technological and/or socioeconomic situations which regulation may promote; and builders of clusters or platforms of the various kinds of linkages which can bind them together in future market and technology development. 5. Conclusion:
future for foresight in research and innovation policy Rationales for foresight activity have evolved in recent years to feature a range of research
J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 249 engineering major changes required in EU research and innovation policy in the coming years.
toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303.2 T. Kuwahara, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, Foresight in Japan, in:
Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 170 183.3 R. Mu, Z. Ren, S. Yuan, Y. Quiao, Technology foresight towards 2020 in China:
the practice and its impacts, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 287 307.4 B. R. Martin, R. Johnston, Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system a review of recent
government exercises, Technological forecasting and Social Change 60 (1)( 1999) 37 54 (18pp..5 J. Gavigan et al.
FOREN Guide Foresight for Regional development Network A Practical Guide to Regional foresight, European commission, December 2001.6 H. Chesbrough, The era of open innovation, Sloan Management Review 44 (3)( 2003.
from trend based logics to open foresight, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 321 336.8 OECD, Choosing Priorities in Science and Technology, OECD, Paris, 1991.9 K
. Klusacek, Technology foresight in the Czech republic, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1 2)( 2004) 89 105.10 K. Klusacek, Key technologies for the Czech National research Programme, in:
Paper Presented at the UNIDO Technology foresight Summit, September, Budapest, 2007.11 T. L. Saaty, The Analytical Hierarchy Process, Mcgraw hill, New york, 1980.12 Office of Science and Technology and PREST
London, May 1993.13 SQW/PREST 1994 Prioritisation Criteria, A Paper to the UK Technology foresight Steering Group. 14 M. Keenan, Identifying generic technologies at the national level:
the UK experience, Journal of Forecasting 22 (2003) 129 160.15 A. Rip, A j. Nederhof, Between dirigism and Laissez-faire:
effects of implementing the science policy priority for biotechnology in The netherlands, Research policy 15 (1986) 253 268.16 R. Coombs, L. Georghiou, A new industrial ecology, Science 296 (2002
) 471.17 R. Coombs, R. R. Ford, L. Georghiou, Generation and Selection of Successful Research projects, A Research Study for the Technology Strategy Forum, 2001.
Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 112 130.19 P. Crehan, J. Cassingena Harper, Foresight in smaller countries, in:
Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 216 236.20 A. Havas, M. Keenan, Foresight in CEE countries, in:
Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 287 318.21 A. Sokolov, Identification of national S&t priorities areas with respect to the promotion of innovation and economic growth:
Human and Societal Dynamics, IOS Press, 2006, pp. 92 109.22 A. Sokolov, Russian Critical technologies 2015, European foresight monitoring Network Brief, 79.
a methodological experiment, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 558 582.26 K. Cuhls, R. Johnston, Corporate foresight, in:
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, 2008.27 Department for Innovation, Universities & Skills, UK, Innovation White paper Innovation Nation, CM7345, March 2008.28 I. Rollwagen, J. Hofmann
, S. Schneider, Improving the business impact of foresight, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 339.29 P. Becker, Corporate Foresight in Europe:
A First Overview, Commission of the European communities, EUR 20921, October 2002, p. 10.30 L. Georghiou, The UK Technology foresight Programme, Futures 28 (4)( 1996) 361.31
R. Smits, S. Kuhlmann, The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1/2)( 2004) 4 32.32 P. Warnke
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, 2008.33 L. Georghiou, Challenging Europe's research, Nature 452 (24)( 2008) 935 936.34 E. Aho, J. Cornu
, L. Georghiou, A. Subira, Creating an innovative Europe, Report of the Independent Expert Group on R&d and Innovation Appointed Following the Hampton Court Summit, January 2006.
L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 250 35 V. Brummer, T. Ko nno la, A. Sahto, Foresight
experiences from the preparation of an international research program, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 483 495.36 M. Cariola, S. Rolfo, Evolution in the rationales of foresight in Europe
, Futures 36 (10)( 2004) 1063 1075.37 K. Blind, Regulatory foresight: methodologies and selected applications, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516.38 J. Edler, L. Georghiou, Public procurement and innovation resurrecting the demand side, Research policy
36 (2007) 949 963.39 European commission, Communication: A Lead Market Initiative for Europe COM (2007) 860,21. 12.2007.40 R. Wilkinson, L. Georghiou, J. Cave, Public Procurement for Research and Innovation Developing Procurement
Practices Favourable to R&d and Innovation, European commission, September 2005, EUR 21793 EN. L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 251
Foresight tackling societal challenges: Impacts and implications on policy-making§T. Ko nno la A f. Scapolo b, 1, P. Desruelle c, 2, R. Mud, 3 a Impetu Solutions
, Calle Vi'ctor Andre's Belaunde, 36,4 C, 28016 Madrid, Spain b European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre (JRC), Programmes and Stakeholders Relations
, Square de Meeu s, 8, Office SDME 10/84, B-1049 Brussels, Belgium c European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre (JRC), Institute
While foresight is used commonly in connection with the public-Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
Available online 19 november 2010 A b s T R A c T Foresight activities are conducted often to anticipate major societal future challenges
and society and (ii) its respective impacts and implications on policy. 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.§
www. elsevier. com/locate/futures 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. doi:
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 253 Consensual future perspectives refer to the creation of common understanding on priorities, relevant collaborative networks and future actions.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 254 Table 1 Selected foresight projects addressing societal challenges. Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement Nordic ICT Foresighta 17 Informative Evaluations of key ICT applications, Nordic scenario set in context of ICT development, scenario
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 255 Table 1 (Continued) Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement UK DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme
Informative Identification of cross-dimensional analysis of the future context of defence in the next 30 years.
It applies trend analysis with a time-horizon of 30 years. Autonomous Expert group work.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 256 Table 1 (Continued) Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement FISTERA:
2020) and develop policy recommendations. Results were discussed with both DG Information society and DG Transport and Energy of the European commission.
Consensual‘‘Innovation 25''has set 5 scenarios of Japan society in 2025 and it includes‘‘Long Health Society'',Safe and Secure Society'',Society with Multiple Career Path,
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 257 Table 1 (Continued) Project Outcomes Future perspectives Management Stakeholder engagement National Technology roadmap in Korea Informative Learning about the technology
NTFC aims to provide also necessary information for making five-year plan of science & technology development.
Technology foresight towards 2020 in China Informative TF2020 aims to provide necessary information for making long term strategy for science and technology development in China,
Consensual TF2020 has set up 6 pictures of China development in 2020, and identified 734 key technologies in 8 research fields based on the Delphi survey.
f Commissioned by the Finnish Government. g A FP5 IST Thematic Network (2002 2005) coordinated by JRC-IPTS and managed in collaboration with DG Information society. h Commissioned by JRC-IPTS.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 258 Sustainability: since the Brundlandt Commission 13, many alternative definitions of sustainability have been proposed
They are expected to improve the understanding of present 4 In 1997 the European commission published a"Green Paper"pointing at the development of a new Information society
1998 2002) a specific programme for research on a"User-friendly information society"."Today, with the i2010 policy framework, the EU aims to"promote the positive contribution that information
2007 2013. T. Ko nno la et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 259 and future challenges of the innovation system and its parts.
However, specific short-term actions are expected not necessarily after the projects. This setting relieves the participants partly from claiming value
and hence may enable also otherwise adversary parties to learn together and search for common ground for long-term agendas.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 260 considered extremely challenging due to high uncertainties related to the issue.
National Technology foresight in China and Technology foresight towards 2020 in China as well as National Technology roadmap in Korea were all strongly informative processes that were initiated to capture experts'views on future S&t challenges Hence,
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area (2002 2005) was an FP5 IST Thematic Network coordinated by JRC-IPTS
since 1970.6 FTA projects in China in broad sense can be traced to‘‘The 12 Years Science Development Planning''made in 1956,
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 261 Information society. FISTERA highlighted priority application areas where R&d investments should be intensified in the future,
The Foresight project conducted in Canada through a series of collaborative projects aimed at emerging and frontier technology domains that could be important to national policy development process for the next ten years.
China is planning to make the 12th five years plan for science and technology development by using the knowledge generated from roadmap activity.
2007 2036''.''The trend-analysis is supported by a wide external consultation of experts in order to make the information included in the report both comprehensive and independent.
2020). ) The findings of the project showed that a large degree of uncertainty existed on impact of ICTS on the environment,
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 262 3. 5. Innovations foresight (diverse perspectives and instrumental outcomes) Innovations foresight can be characterised as instrumental processes with diverse
4. Conclusions In the past years, increasing attention has been paid to the relevance of foresight for policy-making by coming up with different characterisation and typology of different foresight projects (for instance, 7, 12,26, 27.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 263 foresight is ever more important to position foresight as one of the key supporting tools for policy-making to anticipate how major societal challenges ahead can be addressed such as those tackled in this paper, e g. security, sustainability and information society challenges.
The 2008 FTA International Seville Conference, 2009, available at: http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/intro. html. 2009-11-10). 2 R. Smits, S. Kuhlmann, The Rise of systemic instruments
in innovation policy, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1)( 2004) 4 32.3 T. Ko nno la, G. C. Unruh, J. Carrillo-Hermosilla
, Toward prospective voluntary agreements: reflections from a hydrogen foresight project, Journal of Cleaner Production 15 (2007) 259 265.4 L. Georghiou, The UK technology foresight programme, Futures 28 (4)( 1996) 359
377.5 L. Georghiou, M. Keenan, Evaluation of national foresight activities, assessing rationale, process and impact. technological forecasting and social change, Technological forecasting and Social Change 73 (7)( 2005) 761 777.6 O. Da Costa, P. Warnke, C. Cagnin, F. Scapolo
, The impact of foresight on policy-making: insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.7 T. Ko nno la, T. Ahlqvist, A. Eerola, S. Kivisaari
, R. Koivisto, Management of foresight portfolio: analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.8 M. Cariola, R. Secondo, Evolution in the rationales of foresight
in Europe, Futures 36 (10)( 2004) 1063 1075.9 T. Ko nno la, V. Brummer, A. Salo, Diversity in foresight insights from the fostering of innovation ideas
, Technological forecasting and Social Change 74 (2007) 608 626.10 A. Salo, T. Ko nno la, M. Hjelt, Responsiveness in foresight management:
reflections from the Finnish food and drink industry, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1 2)( 2004) 70 88.11 O. Helmer, Looking Forward:
A Guide to Futures research, Sage, Beverly hills, 1983.12 R. Barre',Synthesis of technology foresight, in Strategic policy Intelligence:
Current Trends, the State of Play and Perspectives S&t Intelligence for Policy-making processes, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Technical Report EUR-20137-EN, Seville, 2001
a co-evolutionary view Futures 20 (6)( 1988) 606 620.15 M. Castells, The Rise of the network society.
and the implications for regulation towards an approach for the information society, COM/97/623, December 1997.17 Nordic ICT foresight, available at:
http://www. vtt. fi/inf/pdf/publications/2007/P653. pdf (2009-11-10). 18 Nordic H2 Energy Foresight for the Nordic Council
http://www. h2foresight. info (2009-11-10). 19 The EU Integrated Project IRRIIS Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems, available at:
lang=2&oiid=8661&pid=572 (2009-11-10). 20 Finnish Foresight Forum (in Finnish), available at:
www. rpm. tkk. fi/explorer/html/index ennakointifoorumi. html (2009-11-10). 21 FISTERA: Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area, available at:
http://fistera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/(2009-11-10). 22 Future impacts of ICTS on Environmental sustainability Project, available at:
id=1208 (2009-11-10). 23 R. Compan o',C. Pascu, J.-C. Burgelman, M. Rader, R. Saracco, G. Spinelli
I. Miles, 2006, in: Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area (FISTERA) Key Findings, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Technical Report EUR-22319-EN, Seville, 2009, available at:
http://ipts. jrc. ec. europa. eu/publications/pub. cfm? id=1431 (2009-11-10). 24 A. Fujii, Foresight on information society technologies in Europe, in:
NISTEP Science & Technology trends Quarterly Review, no. 18,january 2006, pp. 24 34.25 F. Abadie, I. Maghiros, C. Pascu (Eds.),
The EPIS Annual Monitoring Synthesis Report, The Role of ICTS as Enabler for Energy efficiency, the European Perspectives on Information society (EPIS) project, 11/2008, EUR Number:
id=1919 (2009-11-10). 26 L. Georghiou, Third generation foresight: integrating the socioeconomic dimension, available at http://www. nistep. go. jp/achiev/ftx/eng/mat077e/html/mat077oe. html (2009/11/10), in:
Terminology and Methodology for Benchmarking Foresight programmes, For Society Transnational Foresight ERA NET, 2006. T. Ko nno la et al./
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 264
Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective A. Eerola A i. Miles b a VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Espoo, Finland b Manchester Institute of Innovation research, Manchester united Kingdom 1
Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
Available online 19 november 2010 A b s T R A c T Future oriented technology analysis (FTA) applied to innovation policy and practice often goes well beyond the narrow domain of technology forecasting.
The challenges of participatory knowledge management are seen to be particularly important ones to tackle. 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.*
www. elsevier. com/locate/futures 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. doi:
We may not be able to know what the world population will be in 2050. There are reputable estimates,
there are always factors that lie outside of these models that may intervene. In the case in question
whose knowledge of the future may well be far less than omniscient, and whose acts of creation are undertaken for the purpose of learning.
For a more conventional far-future vision Last and First Men (1930) is a good introduction to this great author.
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 266 beyond organising exchanges among (more or less closely associated) experts.
which they have been familiar for many years, with little acquisition of new approaches and little awareness of the costs, benefits and broader implications of alternative methods.
Matters have improved over recent years with more journals, more conferences and symposia providing opportunities for mutual learning
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 267 As with other practices, FTA ACTIVITIES involve several phases,
Saritas (2007) provides a rathermore detailed account of five stages in FTA expanding the first and third of the sensemaking steps
creation of plans to inform decisions in the present day and near future concerning actions to shape the future.
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 268 Many of the individual methods may be associated with more than one of the five steps,
or Coates'2025 11.7 This is not to endorse all of the specific conclusions or forecasts of either study.
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 269 programmes and projects (discussed, for example, in the literatures on complex product systems,
Perhaps the least important but quite possibly a factor whose importance will grow in coming years is the rise of public concerns and associated social movements around many S&t issues.
and advanced IT in the early 1980s). Policymakers thus sought more transparency in decision-making, with foresight, technology assessment,
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 270 Whatever mixture of the three goals is being pursued,
and communication (these may use communications media as well as face-to-face meetings), and wider networking activities. Discussions of knowledge management,
Several influential approaches to KM and organisational learning have emerged in recent years and we turn briefly to these. 9 5. Methods
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 271 understanding themselves and their worlds, or whatever.
or may simply imply such an account (which an observer equipped with relevant knowledge will be able to reconstruct).
The agents in question may well make use of technological aids and texts notably whiteboards and flip-charts on which diagrams
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 272 management in a scenario workshop are discussed in the next section,
This kind of scenario workshop usually extends over at least one day, and may involve several dozen participants.
Larger workshops employ‘‘break out groups''of say 6 12 people exploring different subscenarios or aspects of scenarios in detail.
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 273 forecasts, even background scenarios (e g.‘‘‘‘starter scenarios''to be elaborated) prepared by an expert team or in earlier studies.
and other tangible outputs that may enter into the processes of the sponsor and other stakeholders,
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 274 making. This is most likely to be accomplished by those who have participated in
Miles et al. 23 discuss numerous ways in which new IT is liable to be employed in FTA in coming years.
though this may require careful design and careful management of IT system designers who may lean more toward TKM frameworks.
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 275 One of the biggestkmchallenges that confront FTA,
In the UK, there had been major scenario work on strategies for developing a competitive edge in nanotechnology and literature/expert surveying of social issues associated with this field, in the early years of the present century.
the earlier studies mentioned in the text are the‘‘Taylor Report''(Advisory Group On Nanotechnology, 2002) 25 and (40 see also 41.
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 276 safeguards and privacy-enhancing mechanisms...thereby encouraging people to accept
FTA may be expected to be transformed in the coming years. Existing methods will be rendered‘‘democratised more transparent and user-friendly while new tools that support collaborative working will be introduced.‘‘
problems and possibilities of prediction, Futures 21 (2)( 1999) 115 135.3 A l. Porter, et al. Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis:
toward integration of the field & new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303.4 R. Johnston, Historical review of the development of future-oriented technology analysis, in:
1 (1)( 1999) 5 9. 10 R. Popper, Foresight methodology, in: L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, M. Keenan,
The Handbook of Technology foresight, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2008.11 J. F. Coates, J. B. Mahaffie, A. Hines, 2025:
1997 (available at http://www. josephcoates. com/2025 pdf. html (accessed 29/07/2009)).12 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas, Reducing the democratic deficit in institutional foresight programmes:
a case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (9)( 2009) 1208 1221.13 I. Miles, UK Foresight:
three cycles on a highway, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 2 (1)( 2005) 1 34.14 T. Ko nno la, T. Ahlqvist, A. Eerola, S
. Kivisaari, R. Koivisto, Management of foresight portfolio analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.15 E. Eriksson
Navigating the complex landscape of policy strategies, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 462 482.16 M. Jaspers, H. Banthien, J. Mayer-Ries, New forms
the case of‘Future',Seville, First International EU US Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, 2004 (available at http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/papers
2002 http://www. risoe. dk/rispubl/SYS/ris-r-1362. htm (accessed 09/02/10). 22 A. Eerola, B. H. Jørgensen, Foresight in Nordic
and much more content of the study can be located by use of search engines including the presentation made at the FTA conference in 2006 43.14 We refer to Cole et al. 44,
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 277 23 I. Miles, J. Cassingena Harper, L. Georghiou, M. Keenan, R. Popper, New Frontiers:
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