The context, emphasis and time horizons of examination vary, however. For instance, risk assessment in the context of industrial process safety aims to predict the risk caused by a failure, deviation,
The time horizon considered typically is a couple of years maximum referring to the practice to revise the analysis every three to five years.
The time horizon varies from some five to fifty years, depending on the issues examined and the purpose of the foresight exercise.
Hence, somehow the link between these two research traditions is in essence present, but in practice the researches, research projects
A systematic risk analysis typically starts, after the data gathering, with the identification of hazards and the associated hazardous scenarios according to a specific procedure defined by the selected risk analysis method.
Risk management is based not on a striving for perfection from the start nor even on systematic surveillance of deviances for the purpose of correcting them,
The time frame of the study was the year 2015. The study addresses that the more the scope of risk analysis is moving into a not-so-well-known field the more the risk identification becomes the crucial part of the process 28.
a medium-size company offering control systems for high-tech companies, a medium-size technology company and a large-size technology company. 2 The back-pocket roadmap starts
as well as the drivers and bottlenecks of the ongoing business in a defined time perspective 29.
Risks, Potential and Adaptation (CES, time frame 2007 2010. The project aims at assessing the development of the Nordic electricity system for the next 20 30 years.
the general risk assessment procedure, guidelines for gathering the background information, the seasonal plan, risk identification model
The seasonal plan, for instance, aims at stimulating the risk identification process by listing the normal seasonal routines of the hydropower plant,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 autumn. Potential climate change effects are added then to the seasonal plan
and changes to the normal seasonal routines can be noticed; the future is linked in that way to present situation.
Risk assessment procedure in CES is designed on the basis of brainstorming sessions between power plant operators and managers as well as climate change experts.
Background information contains, for instance, the modelling of the changes in the river flows based on the climate change scenarios.
CES project, for example, stresses the operational level risk assessment whereas the INNORISK project's starting point is corporate strategic decision making.
for example related to resource allocation or the formation of strategic partnerships/joint actions. o Informative outcomes refer to the use of foresight to improve the understanding of present and future challenges of the innovation system and its parts.
Fixed vs. autonomous management o Fixed management can be characterised as centralised approach in which co-ordinators fix the scope and methods of the exercise at the outset and control the process,
Fig. 5 also shows that the assessment of new emerging risks demands longer time-frame and a more contingent examination approach.
and risk assessment traditions in emerging risk assessment would then help in applying the more contingent and holistic approach in more fixed and short time risk assessment exercises.
Fig. 5. The relationships between risk assessment and FTA METHODS according to the time frame and approach. 1172 R. Koivisto et al./
which is constantly present. The second benefit may come from the participatory and networking approach of different expert analyses.
which is more common nowadays, for instance, in FTA APPROACH. Either way, both approaches may benefit methodologically from each other in developing better methods for assessing the futures.
which are more capable of taken into consideration the longer time frames than have been common in risk analysis tradition before.
Time horizon 0 5 years 5 50 years Phases Scope definition, risk identification, risk estimation (probability, consequences), risk evaluation The pre foresight phase
an idea before its time is apt to result in derision and dismissal 3. T. J. Gordon et al./
since conditions in the past were almost certainly different than the present. Do these arguments lead to the conclusion that modeling
Second, nonlinear models can be built to simulate real life systems that operate in a stable mode most of the time.
and then using the model to bforecastq the interval to the present. If there was a match,
but there are about 100 times more salesmen than librarians. So given only the sparse amount of information in this example, salesman would have been a better bet.
Innovation policy Science and Technology indicators Barometer Future-oriented knowledge 1. Introduction A growing number of different international comparison systems of the economic and innovation performance of nations have emerged within a decade 2
. The role of performance comparisons has become increasingly important in the era of globalization when competition is not only between multinational and other enterprises but also between economies and innovation systems.
Accordingly composite indicators must be seen as starting points for initiating discussion and attracting public interest 1, 2. Finland has improved her positionamong developed nations according to several internationalperformance comparisons since the latter part of 1990s,
i e. they are based only on past and often outdated data, and not on examination of future development.
Fromthe start TEK included in the barometer both a comparative study of reference countries, based on indicators of past development,
so that the comparison of indicators of latest exercise to those of previous barometers remains possible. 2. Theoretical framework
and second, to a technology barometer based on a survey study of the visions and attitudes of relevant national key actor and interest groups.
In conjunction with the reform of the Finnish information society strategy, the knowledge society is defined as one where knowledge
In conclusion, an indicator study of the technology barometer comprises 12 sub-indicators providing an index-type key value indicating the state of technology at a given time.
According to this index figure Finland rates as second after Sweden in Technology barometer 2007. In the same way other combined composite indicators determine Finland's proportional rating compared to the reference group countries in different areas of technology barometer (the content of Technology barometer 2007 is presented in Appendix B
Together these analyses give an all-inclusive understanding of the present state and future perspectives of techno-scientific development of the nation.
Despite the vast amount of interest in the Nordic innovation policy during the last decade, even this approach may have its pitfalls.
The precise timing of barometer procedure depends moreover on different factors affecting the national economy and innovation system.
meaning that the comparison of latest exercise with previous ones remains possible, allowing the identification of changes occurred in the course of time both in indicator study as well as in survey study.
Recent relatively radical changes of Finnish innovation policy are challenging data basis and indicators of research and innovation,
Development of comprehensive indicators is time-consuming requiring a fair amount of resources as well as a widespread contact network within the society.
latest developments in various technological-scientific subject areas were analysed, consolidated and processed in order to attain a reliable description of the international state-of-the-art.
These topics should still be in the research or development phase during this time. Topics that will already be in the implementation phase during the next years,
or are transferred already to innovations in 10 years'time were excluded from the lists of topics to be considered.
The milestones of the process are described in Fig. 2. The first workshop was held as a starting point in the process to define those topics which should be elaborated in more detail,
These interfaces were the starting points for the searches at the national and international level. For every field, topic coordinators (sometimes two persons) were nominated who were responsible for defining
Topics, in which BMBF or German research institutions were already very active at that point in time were labelled as‘golden
their importance and their time frame (see below. Parallel to this, the corresponding innovation systems were being analysed
Nevertheless, this conference marked the beginning of the integration of the topics that were identified into the German innovation system and into BMBF.
these fields were selected as starting points to search for new topics in science and technology, at first at the national level, later on internationally.
In the plenum session, a guided fictive time travel served as a mind opener. The workshops themselves addressed the 14 thematic fields themselves
These crosscutting areas were additional starting points for searches. Fig. 3. Timeline of the methodology and different outputs at the end. 1190 K. Cuhls et al./
already at this point in time, five new thematic fields were derived from the first workshop results and further search
and Infrastructures for Human Living spaces) Productionconsumption 2. 0 Simulation and modelling Time research In order to assess the relevance of all the topics (fields
In order to save time, no Delphi survey like in some of the previous German foresight activities was planned 16,17.
The second question was about the time: when do you expect the highest research intensity (in 1 to 5 years, in 6 to 10 years, in 11 to 15 years or in 16 to 20 years.
As an incentive, all participants who included their e-mail received the summarised results (beginning of 2009.
On the basis of the survey, topics that will no longer be on the research agenda in 10 years'time,
new drivers like lifestyles or developments in society change the time and space patterns of living and working.
Time research: time is the limiting factor in different developments. Therefore, research on time efficiency, parallel structures, a new kind of precise and ultra-short time measuring as well as 4 D precision (for imaging etc.
are some examples. But also the biological rhythms of the human beings (chronobiology) and new knowledge for different applications will be future topics.
When this article is written, most of the results are published not, therefore only the spectrum of the broader fields can be mentioned. 3. 5. Integration
or crosscutting topics, along the lines of examples from the past. The guiding questions were therefore:
and topics with a time horizon of 10 to 15 years and longer be rapidly
or companies in other countries dealing with crosscutting issues and future topics with a time horizon of 10 to 15 years and beyond?
which described the starting points in the thematic fields as discussed in the first workshop of the process.
in order to inform them about the start of the process and deliver some first preliminary impressions of topics that would be the start of the search phase.
Nevertheless, the process had four different objectives and there are many more impacts and outputs in-between. One impact is by informing BMBF about things to come.
and avoid influences on the thematic focus from the beginning. Especially the direct predecessor process Futur 13,14 was promoted directly from the beginning.
It was well-known and therefore, the expectations were very high. The Delphi surveys 16 were known mainly by expert communities who participated because at that point in time
foresight was relatively new for German communities and for the ministry itself. It did not have to fight high expectations
It was very important to include BMBF from the start but without BMBF advising BMBF.
even if there is still enough time to prepare the implementation. This is regarded as one of the add-ons from foresight processes:
to gain time for the preparation of new research. There is already interest from BMBF departments to get involved into the process.
Until now, all German foresight processes ran into election times 19 which made it difficult to continue with the implementation preparations as intended.
in order to make use of the strategic intelligence of the innovation system 24,27, 32 but this time very cautiously and step by step.
But this time, even if the large process is acknowledged not after the next general elections in 2009, there is already an impact on some of the ministerial departments.
Over the recent decades, it has formed a growing area of interest on the interface of academia and public and private sector policy-making.
not only unfold over several decades, but also cut across spatial scales which are influenced by a myriad of driving forces.
budget-or policy-cycle related perspective frequently prevails in this phase, alongside serious time and resource constraints and the need to fix working compromises between conflicting societal interests.
since impacts might take a long time to become evident or are difficult to single out from the complexity of influence factors. 3. 2. Impacts of scenario planning The few studies that attempt to evaluate the effectiveness of scenarios find them useful 29,30.
This process requires a longer time perspective. Drawing from the private sector literature, using scenarios to address the challenges facing firms can easily fail for another reason:
The value in close collaboration between scenario 1201 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1198 1207 developers and users, particularly at the beginning and ending stages of a scenario exercise,
requires more time and a greater willingness and patience to engage in creative discussions. These conditions are met oftentimes not in the sphere of policy-making,
triggering a stronger use of deductive approaches that require less time, seem more logical and easier to communicate.
and failed to provide knowledge at the time it was needed. Oftentimes, external experts are commissioned by governments and public administration to produce forward-looking analysis,
In addition, policy-makers and strategists often have not only different time horizons than scenario planners, but also very different attention foci.
inductive approaches are considered also often to be too time-consuming and ambiguous in their outcomes, highlighting the need for further methodological improvements.
Paper prepared at the invitation of the Woodrow wilson International Center for Scholars Foresight and Governance Project, 2002.34 L. Fuerth, Strategic Myopia, the Case for Forward Engagement, The National Interest, Spring
Received 17 november 2008 Received in revised form 15 july 2009 Accepted 27 july 2009 The democratic deficit (the‘deficit'hereafter) in present institutional Foresight(‘Foresight'hereafter) lies in its participation regime.
From their beginning in Japan in 1971 it was natural for Foresight studies to absorb many of the processes
The underlying philosophy is of‘satisficing'as often the time scale for thework involved precludes any other approach.
and in greater depth in Loveridge and Street 3. Throughout recent decades it has been presumed that people possess an infinite‘plasticity,
It was a time of immense confidence in science and technology, and their applications to improve wealth creation
Formal rejection of the notion of infinite plasticity came in the late 1960s and early 1970s with the growth of technology assessment (TA) and the creation of the Office of Technology assessment (OTA) in the USA,
'Similarly, because the present ideas are concerned with the practical achievement, with all its shortcomings, of Inclusive foresight, innovation research,
with its concerns for the past, has little to offer to the practical intentions of Inclusive foresight.
feed-forward and other aspects of systems behaviour Likely to exhibit complexity Likely to exhibit aspects of trans science Influenced by the dynamic balance between the forces of modernity
and post-modernity Independent to enable: freedom of thought; freedom of access to people and information sources; and freedom of reporting Participatory enabling whoever wishes to take part to do
The evidence for this lies in the age, occupation, gender and background of the majority of Foresight participants who have been middle-to late-middle aged, professional managers and scientists, male and university graduates.
It is known that individuals move around the hierarchy with the passage of time and according to economic and other circumstances.
Consequently, the circumstances prevailing at the time of a Foresight study can influence the outcome in ways that remain unknown. 2. Seeking opinions from a mixture of people from so many different levels in the typology will introduce new issues to be resolved to retain credibility between all the participants.
The contrast between the extremes of narrow expert and widespread consultation illustrates the simplicity of the first by comparison with the second and how this stems from its exclusivity in clear distinction to the inclusive nature of widespread consultation.
The meaning of a metaphor in the present context is a figure of speech in which a word or phrase literally denoting one kind of object
Ulrich provides a list of questions that can be used as a starting point for the assessment of the boundaries of the situation
the Futur process, Second International Conference on Technology foresight Tokyo, 27 28,february 2003. 3 D. Loveridge, P. Street, Inclusive foresight, Foresight:
. Loveridge, Computers and you, Futures 15 (6)( 1983) 498 503.8 E. Powell, Politicians and the future, Futures (1979) 338 341 August 9 A. Giddens, The Consequences of Modernity
& Winters natural trajectories) critique both analyses for missing the interplay between both. They suggest the quasi-evolutionary approach citing that Constructive TA could act as a middle point.
To show continuity with the earlier work, we have called sometimes it innovation chain plus (IC), +but it is actually a mosaic of arenas through
+a mosaic of arenas for innovation and selection At the time of the Constructive TA project, a method of combining ideas of innovation journeys amidst evolving landscapes (coevollutio of innovation/selection processes
The next step is to introduce evolution overtime, so as to address the other main gap in the literature:
they are based on the dynamics of the present: there are endogenous futures embedded in the present which can give indications
and insights into the transition from present into future. 2. 3. Endogenous futures While new (emerging science and technology introduce novelties,
and thus potentially breaking up existing orders to some extent, subsequent developments create new patterns that may lead to stable situations.
Further developments are predicated on the pattern of the present situation. Not in a deterministic way: there are always choices and contingencies.
At the time of the workshop (December 2007) the situation in and around nanotechnology involved mostly the discussion of Environment, Health and Safety aspects (EHS/HES) and other nanotoxicity related discussions,
Thus, at the time, there was something at stake for these actors and a willingness to participate in discussions
I position (in the IC+framework) the actors that were active at the time of the workshop
Constructive technology assessment (Constructive TA) 6 10 as a reflexive strategy articulation support system taking as its starting point ongoing socio-technical dynamics is particularly suitable for such a purpose.
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 3. 2. The scope of the workshop and the nano context at the time From the situation outlined in Section 3. 1,
This shows the status of the IC+game board at the time of the workshop and was the starting point for the development of realistically complex scenarios.
Over time, the Nanodiablog project actually fulfils the promise made by its initiators (much to their surprise) as creating an informed general public,
based on expectations and path dependencies that are crystallising out of the present (endogenous futures). They not only provide a platform for positioning the tensions,
For reasons of space only one example (scenario 3) is given in full in Section 5. The example helps to illustrate elements such as paths and endogenous futures. 4. 1. The three scenarios At the time of the workshop
Anticipation on further regulatory delays sees shift in private investments from nano to other promising technologies.
The following Spring, as a response to the prior press coverage and the ZDF news item, many patients with lung cancer go to the lab. As ever more patients converge on his lab,
Tensions in this scenario include the issues of timeliness of engagement when to incorporate actors? Early stage technologies are fragile
Code initiators attempt annual monitoring through direct contact to signatories, by asking them to volunteer time to report.
This was the case at the time of writing w. r. t. the UK voluntary initiative.
This creates a gap in ethics of the present and near future..Monitoring signatory compliance becomes a major issue Tension:
by asking them to volunteer time to report. Comparative and systematic methods do not exist.
but in practice reduce pressure on regulators causing delays in regulatory mechanics. Regulators rely on current law (or modifications of them) for nanomaterials and applications.
complexity of nano and the lack of coherent regulatory infrastructure means big delays for certain areas..
Concepts, Spaces and Tools, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2002.8 J. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technol.
Manag. 9 (2)( 1997) 131 148.15 H. van den Belt, A. Rip, The Nelson Winter Dosi model and synthetic dye chemistry, in:
Policy 11 (3)( 1982) 147 162.20 R. R. Nelson, S g. Winter, In search of useful theory of innovation, Res.
Phd Manuscript,(forthcoming Spring 2010. 34 R. van Merkerk, R. E. H. M. Smits, Tailoring CTA for emerging technologies, Technol.
Akademische Verlagsanstalt, 2009.37 Mayer Brown, Minutes of Debate on Governance Initiatives for the European Nanotechnology Community in the Public and Private Sectors European commission, Brussels, December 5th 2007.38 Investing
through methodology and application development and is about to be submitted at the time of publication of this article.
and the analysis portrayed in this paper is instructive for the planning of large-scale foresight exercises that need to serve high-level policy objectives subject to demanding time constraints and expectations.
Although the use of foresight exercises as a tool has become widespread over the latest 10 15 years
but the idea of the rational decision has been challenged for decades by decision theorists (Lindblom 1959;
As already mentioned, the idea of the rational decision has been challenged for decades by decision theorists.
Followiin the change of government in Denmark in late 2001 the energy research programmes were cut by two-thirds in 2002,
The latest strategy plan for the Technical research Council was Strategy plan 2003 2007, publisshe in August 2002 (Statens Teknisk-Videnskabelige Forskningsråd 2002.
In the second phase, during the second half of 2001 the council members described and discussed the different areas of research in science and technology, building on, among other things, the vision papers.
From the beginning of the process it was clear for many of those involved that the Strategy plan would be simpler than the previous 5-year plan (1998 2002),
and politician-targeted format was taken late in the process, early in 2002. The Research Agency played, in collaboration with the council, an important role in the definition of this communication format.
for example, the general national research strategy developed in the mid-1990s (Miljø-og Energiministeriet 1996a c). Danish energy research experienced considerable turbulence following the change in governnmen in late 2001.
In the second half of 2003 and in 2004, two other areas were defined as priorities for strategy development.
There is no clearly defined time horizon in either case. The Technical research Council plan mentions that its strategy is about prioritising areas of science with special importance for society during the next 10 20 years.
-oriented Technology-oriented and methods Time horizon 10 20 years 2008 2012 and 2030 Method, systematics and tools Invited vision papers Council discussions Council members'own
descriptions of areas of strategy effort Analysis of areas (present state and actor views) Hearings Roadmaps (as follow-up) Duration of the process 15 months Approximately 18 months Legitimization
Given from the outset Minister contact Support from known industry leaders etc. Actor dialogues, partnershhip consensus seeking Advisory Council for Energy Research Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight
The rise and fall of strategic planning. Newyork: Free Press. Mintzberg, H. 1994b. Rethinking strategic planning. Part I:
However, it is also rather unique in that it has enacted sizeable increases in spending on research and development (R&d) over the last decade
It is not unusual for these priority-setting exercises to set out to identify only thematic or structural priorities at the outset,
and structural priorities from the outset, given their close interdependence. Yet, this often fails to happen particularly
But in small countries, this is particularly difficult to achieve across the board as many S&t areas lack sufficient‘critical mass'to keep pace with all the latest developments.
and few participaant will have the time (or patience) to devote to this. Furthermore, many participants will probably lack the requisite knowledge to make such detailed assessments.
This is often the moment when the importance of structural priorities is discovered, 'since future investments in research infrastructures or future changes in policies/regulations, for example, can make a significant difference to a country's ability to exploit a particular S&t thematic area.
As a starting point for assessing research domains, representatives from Luxembourg society, business and research were invited to the Stakeholderworkshop with the aim of identifying the main challenges facing Luxembourg over the coming decade.
The subsequent series of thematic field workshops aimed to (redefine or review7 the research domains identified in Phase 1,
Among these challenges are need the to keep within time and budget; to open up the process to genuinely new perspectives;
and second, to use a foresight exercise to identify and develop those domain areas that might be of interest,
These intentions were communicated to the MCHER at the outset, which was supportive of the idea of a foresight exercise.
and identifying‘competence niches'The dilemma around the level of‘granularity'of research topics to be prioritised already highligghte in Section 3 was understood well by the FNR and its consultants from the outset.
Instead, a better STI policy strategy is to foster an innovation system that is sufficiently flexible to support such areas at their time of emergence. 5. 3. Deliberative processes Foresight exercises are characterised by deliberation between various stakeholders, often in workshhop and working groups.
the exercise quickly started to accumulate delays, owing in large part to the aforementioned misunderstandinng between the FNR Board, the MCHER,
this unrealistic time scheduling had major consequences for the scale and quality of deliberative processes.
The consultants employed to coordinate the exercise in Phase 1 did a sterling job in such a limited time to collect baseline data
but with so little time to work with, they decided to rely upon a single deliberative forum the Exploratory Workshop (EWS) near the end of the process to validate the domain rankings derived from analysis of the online survey. 12 This was always going to be problematic as it left too much to be achieved in a single one-day
For a start, despite the small size of Luxembourg, it was apparent that many people in the same thematic areas did not know one another.
it takes time for people to develop a rapport and for mutual trust to grow between participants.
Instead, the focus was solely upon the identification of priorities in as quick a time as possible.
and more time spent on data collection and analysis. Similar shortcomings have also been noted by Meyer 2008 who comments that Luxembourg's‘current science policy appears to be almost too ambitious,..
although this would also cause delays in the formulation of new FNR programmes. Accordingly, a second phase of the exercise was instigated with a stronger deliberative process.
the existence of one (or few) dominant actors influenced the process right from the outset (Thorsteinsdottir 2000.
Again, further thematic group meetings might have reduced this behaviour over time. Many participants also had difficulty in engaging in a visioning dialogue.
they also often appear a long time after the exercise has been completed and are therefore difficult to measure and to attribute to foresight;
An advantage of this late stepwas that the results were owned nowpartly by the MCHER, which had not been the case previously.
A first call for project proposals was launched in early 2008, some two years after the initial deadline,
and shifts towards new areas understandably take time. Besides the identified priorities, the exercise in itself has produced associated process benefits for example,
In the context of the FNR Foresight, it is clear that more time should have been devoted to setting its objectives and agenda.
the workshops had unequal starting points and their methodology had to be adapted to the degree of progress made up to that point. 8. Other elements included the review analysis by the OECD on Luxembourg's public research apparatus, the multiannnua development programmes of the public research centres and the University of Luxembourg,
While this would seem to be given sensible particularly the limited time available asking participants to rank such a list without giving them the time to debate
Paper presented at the Second FTA Conference, 28 29 september, Sevilla, Spain. Keenan, M. 2003. Identifying emerging generic technologies at the national level:
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