and Management, Delft University of Technology, 2600 GA, Delft, The netherlands a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c
including technology forecasting, technology intelligence, future studies, foresight, and technology assessment 1. In their own ways each of these approaches is used for analyzing technological developments and their potential consequences.
Technology refers both to physical artifacts as well as to social practices that specify how these artifacts can be used.
Thus, technological systems can be decomposed in the physical components as well as the social components including institutions.
The various fields covered by the umbrella term FTA have at their disposal a wide variety of methods, techniques, and approaches.
Institutional change driven by liberalization, changing economic competitiveness of the dominant fuels, new technologies, and changing end-user preferences regarding electricity supply are some examples of these developments.
EMA is used to explore plausible transition trajectories in the face of these developments given technological uncertainty about investment and operating costs,
and fuel efficiency of various alternative technologies; political uncertainty about future CO2 abatement policies such as emission trading;
and the expected limited growth of metal supply (especially of crucial low-volume metals such as rare earth metals that are required in ever bigger quantities for many innovative technologies
and advances in Air Traffic Management (ATM) technology radically alter the functioning of the sector 35.
or logistic growth to a maximum followed by logistic decline ATM technology Change in air traffic management technology,
the curves can be parameterized in various ways Exponential or logistic performance increase Engine technology (noise/emissions) Change in air traffic management technology,
Institutional change driven by liberalization, changing economic competitiveness of the dominant fuels, new technologies, and changing end-user preferences regarding electricity supply are some examples of these developments.
we use EMA to explore plausible transition trajectories in the face of these developments given technological uncertainty about investment and operating costs,
and fuel efficiency of various alternative technologies; political uncertainty about future CO2 abetment policies such as emission trading;
which decisions are expected mainly based on lifetime of the technology used in a generation unit. A unit at the end of it is lifetime
Multiplier factor to alter the future variable operating costs of a technology 0. 6 1. 25 Coal
if a high tech company is dependent on specific minerals and/or metals, the results of the case could be used to identify early indicators of, for example, cyclic pricing behavior.
I. Miles, M. Mogee, A. Salo, F. Scapolo, R. E. H. M. Smits, W. Thissen, Technology futures analysis:
and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2008.14 J. H. Miller, Active nonlinear tests (ANTS) of complex simulation models, Manag.
Sci. 44 (1998) 820 830.15 J. H. Kwakkel, The Treatment of Uncertainty in Airport Strategic planning, Faculty of technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2010.16
An Exploratory System Dynamics Model and Analysis of the Global Copper System in The next 40 Years, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2011.22 J. H. Kwakkel, W
45 G. Yücel, Analyzing Transition Dynamics, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2010.46 L. Breiman, J. H. Friedman, C. J. Stone, R. A
Delft, Delft University of Technology. M. Sc. Thesis, 2004.50 S. J. Heblij, R. A a. Wijnen, Development of a runway allocation optimisation model for airport strategic planning, Transportation Planning and Technology 31 (2
)( 2008) 201 214.430 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 419 431 Jan Kwakkel is a postdoctoral researcher at Delft
University of Technology. He received his MSC. and Ph d. degrees from Delft University of Technology.
In addition he studied philosophy at Leiden University. His research focuses on the treatment of uncertainty in model-based decision support.
Erik Pruyt is Assistant professor of System Dynamics and Policy analysis at the Faculty of technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology.
For instance, developments in science and technology have a strong potential to influence social change. There are, however, many reasons why the practical use of scientific knowledge
and technology varies widely between countries. Societies differ, just as economies, and governments deal with international scientific developments in different ways through the policies they pursue 14.
cultural and political power as well as by technological rationalism and such indeterminism makes systemic approaches to innovation policy far from linear or predictable.
technology and innovation not solely for generating economic benefits, but also for anticipating and responding to the grand challenges 15.
i e. new scientific or technological principles, but rather as a nonlinear process of learning 36.
it evolves with alterations in the content of technologies and products as well as in the relationships among various other innovation systems.
technological and deterministic characteristic 15. Although the innovation process is now much more open and receptive to social influences,
For instance, Hekkert et al. 40 highlight that stimulating knowledge flows (alone) is not sufficient to induce technological change and economic performance.
and technology planning 55. A science or technology roadmap is like a highway roadmap that describes how one might proceed from a starting point to a final destination expressed as a vision.
a science or technology roadmap also shows the intersections between scientific steps or technologies 56. A roadmap can take various forms,
which provides a means to link technology and other resources to future products, as well as to innovation objectives and milestones 55.
Linking scenarios with technology roadmapping initiates an exploratory and creative phase to identify and understand uncertainties.
and establishing a common vision among the innovation stakeholders as a boundary framework before moving into technology roadmapping 70.4.2.2.
technological cooperation and converging technologies. Clearly innovation is an essential feature of the scenarios. 2 PRELUDE:
(i e. inward reflection) and often driven by technology or changes in our way of living.
Roadmaps directed towards a single target are likely to be inappropriate where policy intervention may direct technology towards a different trajectory altogether 70,71.
Hence, it is important to recognize that representing scientific and technological diversity offers an important means to help foster more effective forms of innovation
and defining areas for innovation Weak on complexity of socio-technological systems Evolutionary Interaction Engage in sustainable pathways enabling transformations of innovation systems Allows a systemized negotiation process linking a variety of social actors
innovation Risk of not reaching out to key (technological) actors 440 P. De Smedt et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 acknowledge the limits of our analysis:
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Tech. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 20 (2008) 369 387.6 P. D. Andersen, M. Borup, K. Borch, J. Kaivo-oja, A. Eerola, T. Finnfjörnsson, E. Øverland
Integrating Insights, Transforming Institutions and Shaping Innovation systems, Seville, 12 13,may 2011, 2011.11 A. Webster, Technologies in transition, policies in transition:
. F. Coates, Future innovations in science and technology, in: L. V. Shavinina (Ed.),The International Handbook on Innovation, Pergamon, London, 2003.32 C. Leadbeater, We-Think:
Technologies, Institutions and Organizations, Pinter publishers, London, 1997.39 B. Carlsson, R. Stankiewicz, On the nature, function,
and composition of technological systems, J. Evol. Econ. 1 (1991) 93 118.40 M. P. Hekkert, R. A a. Suurs, S. O. Negro, S. Kuhlmann, R. E. H. M
a new approach for analyzing technological change, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 74 (2007) 413 432.41 M. S. Jørgensen, Visions and visioning in foresight activities, in:
The Fast Start to Technology Roadmapping, Planning Your Route to Success, Centre for Technology management, Ifm University of Cambridge, 2001.56 T. J. Gordon, S&t roadmapping, in:
Paper Presented at the Future seminar of the Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo, 7th of June, 2007, in:
June 7th 2007.78 A. Stirling, A general framework for analysing diversity in science, technology and society, J. R. Soc.
His field of interest is socio-technological aspects such as uncertainty ethics and sustainability, of emerging technologies mainly inside agriculture, food production, biotechnology and bioenergy.
Furthermore, he is an expert in foresight and scenario methodologies, where his interests are focused on how to handle trans-disciplinary conflicts and scientific uncertainty.
The role of future-oriented technology analysis in the governance of emerging technologies: The example of nanotechnology Petra Schaper-Rinkel AIT Austrian Institute of technology, Donau-City-Straße 1, A-1220 Vienna, Austria a r t i c l e
the early stages of FTA relied on expert-based methods such as technology intelligence and technology forecasting to define the field
and to explore what could happen in general. Participatory formats such as dialogues on ethical legal and social aspects (ELSA) became more important only later on.
Governance Emerging technologies Key enabling technologies Nanotechnology Public engagement Foresight Technology assessment Responsible research and innovation 1. Introduction As science and technology become more central to economic development,
the question of future-oriented governance of emerging technologies gets raised repeatedly. A decade ago, the question addressed how to maximize the contribution of such technologies to economic innovation with the intention of enhancing competitiveness 1, 2. Today,
the question also includes how to use these technologies to tackle societal challenges and to contribute to environmental sustainability 3, cf. 4. In both rationales,
different types of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) are used to determine national science and technology priorities, to develop governance frameworks
and to address national innovation systems. In the case of nanotechnology, a variety of FTA ACTIVITIES have been in use over the last quarter of a century to structure the field itself
since the U s. National science and Technology Council published its first vision for nanotechnology research and development and Germany established its public funding program.
but rather also in processes such as technology forecasting, technology assessment and participatory future-oriented studies, involving scientists, policymakers, media,
and systems that exploit these newproperties. 1 This broad definition covers clusters of technologies that may have different characteristics and applications.
Many studies in the field of science and technology studies (STS) have shown that nanotechnology is as much a political as a cultural phenomenon 11 14.
and technology assessment studies included actors and knowledge mainly from science and industry 1, 19 22.
furthermore with the discourse on converging technologies, referring to the synergistic combination of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology and cognitive sciences (NBIC),
where a similar governance framework as in the case of nanotechnology is discussed 10 (M. Roco, Possibilities for global governance of converging technologies, J. Nanopart.
Indeed, it turns out there are strong analogies between nanotechnology and converging technologies, though they seem to be very different phenomena with regard to the funding and policy dynamics in the fields.
whereas in the field of converging technologies broad futuristic discourses took place that were followed not by funding strategies dedicated explicitly to converging technologies. 445 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting
especially in science, technology and innovation policy-making, 28 the above mentioned activities can all be considered as FTA.
In this paper, FTA is used as the umbrella term covering subfields such as technology foresight, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping and technology assessment cf. the list in 29 and combining tools, ranging fromquantitative methods
and technology landscape of the United states. The U s. stands virtually alone in specifically avoiding centralized S&t planning
and Germany The early history of nanotechnology as an emerging technology is heterogeneous. In the 1980s a first funding program was established in UK that has fallen
Usually, two US visions are seen as the starting point of nanotechnology as an emerging technology. The early individual vision of Eric Drexler, who envisioned a distant future vision of molecular manufacturing in the late 1980s,
The Coming Era of Nanotechnology 17, Drexler developed far reaching new ideas of the possibilities and risks of technologies on the nanoscale.
Drexler became a key figure for this new technological vision and his ideas became a disputed reference point in the debate around nanotechnology in the late 1980s and the 1990s.
This started in 1998 when the National science and Technology Council (NSTC), the principal executive body responsible for coordinating science and technology policy,
Engineering, and Technology (IWGN), which included members of different government departments and agencies. 4 In 1999, the NSTC conducted a series of studies and published reports on the status of and trends in nanotechnologies.
The studies brought together science and technology assessment of different fields of what would then be called nanoscale science and technology.
Visits to leading research laboratories in Japan and Europe and workshops held in the United states, Europe,
and Russia were used to gather additional information for worldwide studies in the field of nanostructure science and technologies 37.
and no experts represented the social sciences, humanities, innovation studies, environmental studies or science and technology studies. At this stage, the FTA ACTIVITIES did not involve a broad range of stakeholders.
Rather, it was driven a process by technology experts. The small section of the IWGN workshop report on the social impact of nanotechnology contains a vision on the future
and instead focus on Feynman as the genius behind the origins of the field 11 (C. Selin, Expectations and the emergence of nanotechnology, science, technology & human values,(2007) 196 220).
J. Radin, Bounding an emerging technology: para-scientific media and the Drexler Smalley debate about nanotechnology, Soc.
represented a future-oriented relation of technology policy and society which can be characterized as a model of linear and science-driven innovation.
In this model, technology results from research whereas society has to adapt to technology to make its applications successful.
and accelerate the uptake of technology through funding, education and awareness-raising. The report outlined the vision that nanotechnology will lead to the next industrial revolution 1. It recommended a national nanotechnology initiative
engineering and technology research and development from the approximately $255 million it spent in fiscal year 1999.1.
the technology assessment activities and the vision building process served to link disperse organizations and research fields
the Nanoscale Science, Engineering and Technology (NSET) Subcommittee of the NSTC Committee on Technology (which succeeded the IWGN) called for the involvement of social scientists across the board 38
and presenting concepts of how to establish nanotechnology as a general-purpose technology in the next decade,
Another concept, highlighted in the report is real-time technology assessment, a research program to integrate natural science and engineering investigations with social science and policy research from the outset 44.
application-driven research will produce new scientific discoveries and economic optimization leading to new technologies and industries.
and real-time technology assessment 3. The report refers to the previous involvement of a broad variety of stakeholders
they address R&d (Advance a world-class nanotechnology research and development program), innovation (Foster the transfer of new technologies into products for commercial and public benefit),
as in the case of emerging technologies, the diverse and dynamic environment enables the actors within the pluralistic system to use FTA to build up governance networks
the activities under the umbrella of the National science and Technology Council Subcommittee were per se closely policy-related and, in the last decade,
and focused in the early stages on technology analysis, market analyses and technology assessment activities. The BMBF commissions the Association of German Engineers Technology Center (VDI-TZ), a subsidiary company of the Association of German Engineers (VDI),
to monitor future technology trends that could be the subject of funding programs in the future. These reports are referred to as technology analyses
and include both assessment and future-oriented parts, but focus predominantly on economic issues and impacts.
The results of the forecasting exercises were published in technology analyses, summarizing the process and results of the forecasting exercises for nanotechnology in general and for various subfields of nanotechnology,
These reports provided information on the technology field or sub-field, documenting its potential prospects from the perspective of various sectors of industry,
From1988 to 1998, the technology field wasmonitored by analyzing the literature, visiting conferences and other relevant actors internationally, organizing expert panels on different aspects of nanotechnology,
conducting studies on specific nano-subfields and by bringing together relevant actors from science and industry through workshops and expert discussion 6. Technology intelligence, technology assessment,
Nanoforlife (pharmaceuticals, medical technology nanotechnology for new medical therapies and diagnostics. Nanomobil (automotive sector, nanotechnology for resource-saving automobiles.
, optical technologies, new materials. 448 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 Nanolux (optics industry, nanotechnology for energy efficient lighting.
In 2003 the Office of Technology assessment at the German Parliament conducted a broad technology assessment on nanotechnology 49.
In 2006, the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) established the Nanokommission a stakeholder commission on nanotechnologies as part of the federal government's high-tech strategy.
These unrelated processes cover dialogues at the federal and state levels as well as stakeholder dialogues and processes of public understanding of science and technology 50.
In 2007, the Nano-Initiative Action Plan 2010 emerged as an important part of the high-tech strategy of the German government.
and research to pool the distributed strategic knowledge gained from different activities such as technology intelligence, parliamentary technology assessment, technology monitoring and dialogue processes.
and this institutional fragmentation can also be observed with regard to the governance of science, technology and innovation in the field of nanotechnology. 4. Comparing the US and Germany 4. 1. Timing and intervention Between the late 1980s and the late 1990s,
and Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology (BMWI). 449 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 In this later stage, heterogeneous stakeholders beyond the actors of the early established nano-policy networks
The function of these participatory processes can be seen as part of acceptance politics 57 that attempts to increase acceptance of emerging technologies.
and technology as early as possible have given rise to efforts to monitor emerging technologies on a global scale.
The US Interagency Working group on Nanoscience, Engineering and Technology (IWGN) published a worldwide study on Nanostructure Science and Technology in 1999.
as they intended to identify emerging technologies and not to shape the field. Nonetheless, these activities contributed to forming the field and shaping the expectations.
The implication for future emerging technologies is that the methodology and practice of FTA should consider the governance dimension from the beginning by acknowledging that monitoring
and in spreading the idea that nanotechnology would become one of the key enabling technologies of the 21st century.
References 1 NSTC, National science and Technology Council, Nanotechnology research directions: IWGN workshop report, Vision for Nanotechnology research and Development in The next Decade, 1999.2 BMBF, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, in:
Towards a Common Strategic Framework for EU. COM (2011) 48, Green Paper, European commission, Brussels, 2011.5 NSTC, National science and Technology Council, IWGN, E. A t.,The Interagency
Working group on Nanoscience, Nanostructure Science and Technology, in: A Worldwide Study, 1999.6 G. Bachmann, in:
unifying and transforming tools, AICHE J. 50 (2004) 890 897.10 M. Roco, Possibilities for global governance of converging technologies, J. Nanopart.
VDI, Düsseldorf, 1994.20 POST, Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology policy, in: Making it in Miniature Nanotechnology Report Summery, POST, Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology policy, London, 1996, p. 4. 451 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change
80 (2013) 444 452 21 I. Malsch, Nanotechnology in Europe: Experts'Perceptions and Scientific Relations Between Sub-areas, Brussels Luxembourg, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, 1997.22 National science and Technology Council, Nanotechnology, in:
Shaping the World Atom by Atom, 1999, p. 12 S, Washington. 23 L. M. Pytlikzillig, A j. Tomkins, Public engagement for informing science and technology policy:
what do we know, what do need we to know, and how will we get there?
I. Miles, M. Mogee, A. Salo, F. Scapolo, R. Smits, W. Thissen, Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field and new methods, Technol.
science fiction as science, Configurations 10 (2002) 261 296.36 S. Kaplan, J. Radin, Bounding an emerging technology:
Sci. 41 (2011) 457 485.37 NSTC, National science and Technology Council, Nanostructure Science and Technology, R&d Status and Trends in Nanoparticles, Nanostructured Materials,
Handbook of Science and Technology studies, MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass, 2008, pp. 979 1000.44 D. H. Guston, D. Sarewitz, Real-time technology assessment, Technol.
Soc. 24 (2002) 93 109.45 NSTC, National science and Technology Council, Committee on Technology, Subcommittee on Nanoscale Science Engineering and Technology, The National Nanotechnology Initiative:
Washington. 46 M. C. Roco, Environmentally responsible development of nanotechnology, How the U s. Government is Dealing with the Immediate and Long-term issues of this New technology, Environmental science & Technology, 2005.
from forecasting to technological assessment to sustainability studies, J. Clean. Prod. 16 (2008) 977 987.49 TAB, in:
Policy 37 (2008) 888.54 ETC Group action Group on Erosion, Technology and Concentration), Size matters! The case for a global moratorium.
Small Matter, Many Unknowns, 2004, p. 57s, Zürich. 56 B. Wynne, Public participation in science and technology:
towards an epistemological shift in the public understanding of science and technology, Public Underst. Sci. 19 (2010) 274 292.58 E. Altvater, B. Mahnkopf, The world market unbound, Rev.
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Tech. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 20 (2008) 369 387.60 U. Felt, M. Fochler, Machineries for making publics:
Her current research focuses on foresight, governance of emerging technologies, and methods and practices of futuring. 452 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452
One prominent example is the case of priority setting for science, technology and innovation policy a highly relevant domain of foresight activities.
Accordingly, picking key technologies is no longer sufficient. Transformative priorities 4 that indicate the arenas for collective experimentation 5 with various solutions for societal problems are required.
Early models saw innovation processes as a linear sequence of functional activities distinguishing only between technology push
daily newspapers with a business focus, magazines with a technological, business, or innovation focus and websites as well as blogs on innovation and research.
Node of change covered Mini panel co-ordinator Visioning approach 1. Citizens role in innovation governance Anders Jacobi Danish Board of Technology,
France Drafting of Citizens Agency in a visioning session in Brussels with actors in social innovation a Citizens Visions in Science and Technology FP7 SSH project. b Cradle to Cradle:
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Tech. Anal. Strateg. Manag. 20 (3)( 2008) 369 387.2 R. Miller, Futures literacy:
Integrating Technological, Market and Organizational Change, Wiley, Chichester; Weinheim u. a.,2005.10 R. Rothwell, Successful industrial innovation:
and Profiting from Technology, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, Mass, 2006.15 R. Reichwald, F. Piller, Interaktive Wertschöpfung:
, New york/London, 2010.35 K. M. Weber, H. Rohracher, Legitimizing research, technology and innovation policies for transformative change:
She has been Deputy Head of the Competence Center Innovation and Technology management and Foresight between 2009 and 2011.
In the past ten years she has worked on Foresight at Fraunhofer ISI and at the European commission's institute for prospective technological studies JRC-IPTS.
Her research focuses on Foresight methodology and the mutual shaping of technology and society. 466 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466
Jennifer Cassingena Harper b a Manchester Institute of Innovation research, Manchester Business school, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK b Malta Council for Science and Technology, Kalkara, Malta
New tendencies include a heightened search for breakthrough science and a focus on grand societal challenges.
Participants heard about the evolving technology strategy of one of Europe's leading companies. Since the 1990s Nokia would have been on any list of European industrial success stories as it rose to global leadership in themobile telephony sector.
when fast moving technological and social changes can expose wrong bets made both on platform technologies
what is going on by observing that the rate of social change has overtaken the rate of technological change
and that we are in the midst of a transformation frominformation to molecular based technologies. A further keynote highlighted the rise to prominence of the Brazilian economy,
the FTA COMMUNITY eponymously and in practice, takes as its anchor point the role of technology and by implication the conduct and consequences of research and innovation.
The corresponding institutions responsible for technology and innovation policy are normally on a smaller scale and tend to conflate the two labels.
the technologies that they address are generally developments of well-known domains. Articulation is of course within the context of a defined phenomenon
This could be interpreted as a response to uncertainty an attempt to facilitate those most likely by their track record of excellence to achieve breakthroughs that may have a transformative effect.
For FTA ACTIVITY breakthrough science is less something to be anticipated 2 From the well-known quote by the former US Secretary of defense,
and Technology policy has as its first goal to: Ensure that Federal investments in science and technology are making the greatest possible contribution to economic prosperity, public health, environmental quality,
and national security. We know that Grand challenges are boundary spanning, address‘wicked problems'and do not fit current institutional
The rub would be that by concealing the full scope of a highly complex problem in both social and technological dimensions,
for example efforts to build an anticipatory culture in Research and Technology Organisations, and the establishment by the European commission of a new advisory body, the European Forum for Forward Looking Activities (EFFLA) which includes in its remit the identification of challenges
also cited as Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group) Technology Futures analysis: Towards integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303 2004.2 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis the 2004 EU US
Luke Georghiou is Professor of Science and Technology policy and Management in the Manchester Institute of Innovation research at Manchester Business school.
Jennifer Cassingena Harper is a consultant providing advice on research and innovation policy and strategy to the Malta Council for Science and Technology.
In this case, the window on the state of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is provided by a conference held in 2011 in Seville, at the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European commission's Joint research Centre.
Initially the more mature and recognized technology assessment strand appeared to offer both a stronger research base and a more direct connection to policy.
Looking at the technology side there was the clear problem, even failure, of narrow technological initiatives to achieve specific outcomes
or to account for the actual evolution of industrial research and innovation systems. On the foresight side not only was there considerable confusion and conflict at the level of methods,
and ending up with a version of the expert's best guess regarding the best bet for winning the industrial or technological race ten or so years on.
Or that the reality of technological and societal interaction was being simplified overly even misunderstood. While the technology assessment crowd and the small but regularly present business oriented strategy practitioners voiced worries about the‘‘scientific''legitimacy and practical effectiveness of the at times open ended and exploratory nature of thinking about the future.
All of this was interlaced with specific and recurrent displays of interest in and advocacy of cross-disciplinarity, open innovation,
In planning subsequent such FTA gatherings, it may be useful to look for signs of shared sense-making frameworks able to encompass, on the one hand, a tightly constrained roadmapping of a given technology within the assumptions of a specific scenario of national/European competitiveness,
/Editorial/Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 3 Elisabetta Marinelli Phd*Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Knowledge for Growth Unit (Kfg), European commission DG
r. miller@unesco. org Philine Warnke Innovation systems Department, Research, Technology & Innovation policy, AIT Austrian Institute of technology Gmbh, Donau-City-Strasse 1, 1220
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