Orienting European innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play Cristiano Cagnin1*,Effie Amanatidou2 and Michael Keenan3 1dg Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies
Institute of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9pl, UK 3directorate for Science, Technology and Industry, OECD,
technology assessment. 1. Introduction Recent years have seen a great deal of discussion on how science, technology and innovation (STI) systems might be reoriented to better address several grand challenges that affect not only contemporary societies but also the future of human civilisation itself.
This is part of a new mission-led approach to innovation policy that is more global in outlook and oriented towards more societal goals.
Technology convergence or fusion that opens up new possibilities to manage, mitigate or even eliminate some of the causes
therefore be about much more than just end-of-pipe technological fixes. Rather STI agendas should seek to better orient innovation activities along more sustainable pathways that enable positive transformations of socio-technical systems
Certain traditions in the FTA family of approaches, particuularl technology assessment, have taken the reorientatiio of technological trajectories and innovation activities as an explicit goal.
and technology transfer and/or organisational changes (Hall and Rosenberg 2010). This incrementalism often leads to lock in
and path-dependency along technological trajectories that can be difficult to escape, even if a consensus exists that alternative trajectories would be more beneficial to follow.
Factors vary, for instance, on R&d intensity (i e. high-tech, medium tech and low tech) and on issues such as availability (or the possibility to develop) skilled labour,
a culture of learning by doing, ways and intensity of interacttin within and beyond the sector,
Entrepreneurial experimentation reduces uncertainty through a continnuou probing into new technologies and applications that allows many forms of social learning to take place..
and technology knowledge, including production, design and market knowledge. The sources and locations of knowledge development are wide-ranging,
As such, guidance can be considered to be an interactive and cumulative process of exchanging ideas between technology producers, users and many other actors..
Furthermore, grand challenges cannot be dealt effectively with through technological innovaation alone. They require broader changes in human perceptions and behaviour,
as well as social innovations promoting non-technological solutions. The challenge is for business, governments and societies to align
opportunities and problems encountered in sectors, technologies and social networks (Stirling et al. 2009). Clearly, the eorientation of innovation systems places particular demands on STI policy and the governance of innovation systems.
of strategic foresight, forecasting and technology assessment. These are oriented future processes that offer policy -and decision-makers the potential to look across (disruptive) transformations
New knowledge (including also non-technological knowledge) has to be developed on topics relevant to grand challenges among a distributed landscape of actors.
when products and services based on new technologies are rejected Creating new capabilities Improve decisions by meeting societal expectations
and avoiding the assumption that people have infinite plasticity towards new technology Enhance strategic capabilities of organisations by helping to develop a language
and Technology, is another form of research public private partnership (PPP), again placing considerabbl importance on the engagement of the business sector.
In particulla the Joint Technology initiatives (JTIS), 5 having evolved from European Technology platforms, 6 are accommodattin a strong interest from industry to address major challenges.
e g. in setting the strategic research agendas in ERA NETS and the European Technology platforms, and lately also in the KICS.
funding a variety of competing technologies etc.).The methods applied should promote expertise and experience but also creativitty These spaces could also be created at different levels of governance (regional, national,
The first ones were created in the areas of climate change, energy and informmatio and communications technologies. In 2011, the JRC-IPTS supported the European Institute of technology to identify potential priority areas for new KICS from 2013.
Mcgraw-hill. Gassler, H.,Polt, W. and Rammer, C. 2008)‘ Priority setting in technology policy historical developments and recent trends'.
A new approach for analysing technological change',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 74: 413 32. IDEA Consult. 2010)‘ The impact of European policy on the development of the ERA in the areas relevant to environmennt'Draft Final Report.
SPRU, University of Sussex. van Lente, H. 1993)‘ Promising technology, the dynamics of expectations in technological development',Phd thesis, University of Twente. von Hippel, E. 2005
-Straße 1, 1220 Vienna, Austria 2malta Council for Science and Technology, Villa Bighi, Bighi, Kalkara KKR 1320, Malta 3impetu Solutions, Vi'ctor
The drivers of these changes may range from rapid technological changes to shifts in social norms, values and lifestyles.
Similarly, in many respects, breakthrough technologies due to developments in information and communiccatio technologies and nano-and biotechnologies have disruptive impacts on economies, markets and innovative consumer goods and services.
which can have equally significant medium-to long-term impacts (consider the convergence of technologies, as discussed by Nordmann (2004)).
Science and technology are also the basis of challenges involving the collective ability to respond to opportunities in frontier research.
interacttiv chain of changes ranging from technological, natural, economic and political to social (pervasive and quick to diffuse with longer term effects emerging over time)
and prepare for major breakthroughs resulting from scientific discovery, is an important driver of innovation and competitiveness,
Driven by the need to explore certain technological, economic or societal developments of major concern to decision-makers,
and the need for faster delivery of FTA results to policy and decisionmakking The rediscovery of parliamentary technology assesssmen (TA) is also a sign of renewed interest in institutionalised forms of TA (cf.
such as the Scientific Technology Options Assessment Unit of the European parliament, build on long-term service contracts with external public and private research organisations or consulting firms).
often science and technology priorities should be addressed in these. FTA along these lines was need in of updates at regular intervals of three to five years
Broader socioeconomic questions have complemented scientific technological ones, but the focus of attention has remained on research and innovation (R&i) policies,
Improving the robustness and dynamics of the R&i ecology to address (global) disruptions and engineer breakthroughs.
technology and innovation (STI) policies and achieving impact on national innovation systems (NIS). They argue that external FTA services are useful
In particular Warnke (2011) recommends the use of strategic dialogues to foster the embedding of suggested‘future fields'into the national research, technology and innovation (RTI) landscaape Ahlqvist et al.
2011) outline paths to enable anticipattor culture in research and technology organisations (RTOS) and other organisations.
of FTA‘Constructing systemic transformattio capacities in a research technology organisation: Applying diversified roadmap concept'Ahlqvist et al.
‘intelligent piggybacking'approach is much more suitable for smaller catching-up economies than the traditional‘grand narratives'approach typically employed in larger advanced economies to define future developments at the cutting edge of a given field of technology.
Early warning of disruptive events and scientific/technological breakthrough and their likely impacts in scope and time.
or shortfalls in the R&i ecology relating to lock in to obsolete technologies or business models, and old networks which require realignment.
as reflected, for instance, in the creation of new dedicated horizonscanning centres, the strengthening of parliamentary technology assessment offices and the establishment of dedicated foresight units in firms and public administration.
systemic and structural transformation of organisations'premises and practices, with the ultimate goal of handling current and future technological, economic and societal challenges in line with the goals defined by the organisation.
In general, parliamentarians need better access to knowledge about current and future developments in technology and society.
and maintaining the necessary‘strategic intelligence'to ensure the strategic governance of technology and society is not an easy task.
The fast pace of technological change and the complexity of its societal repercussions make the interpretation of contextual developments very difficult.
2011)‘ Constructing systemic transformation capacities in a research and technology organisation: Applying diversified roadmap concept at VTT, Finland,
Cuhls, K. 2001)‘ Foresight with Delphi surveys in Japan',Technology analysis & Strategic management, 13: 555 69. Daheim, C. and Uerz, G. 2008)‘ Corporate foresight in Europe:
From trend based logics to open foresight',Technology analysis & Strategic management, 20: 321 36. Dervin, B. 1998)‘ Sense-making theory and practice:
Nordmann, A. 2004)‘ Converging technologies Shaping the future of European societies',Report of an Expert Group to the European commission.
Salo, A. and Kuusi, O. 2001)‘ Developments in parliamentary technology assessment in Finland',Science and Public policy, 28: 453 64.
*Paul Cutler2, 3, John Marks4, Richard Meylan2, 5, Carthage Smith2 and Emilia Koivisto2, 6 1directorate for Science, Technology and Industry, OECD,
the significant technological advances made as part of the war effort and the setting up of the UN in 1945.
and the WMO and built on advances in instrument technologies that had occurred during the Second world war.
The Interacademy Council produces reports on scientific, technological, and health issues related to global challenges, and provides advice to national governments and international organisations.
Technological change: while the nature and implicatiion of technological breakthroughs cannot be known in advance, there is a high degree of certainty that these will occur over the next two decades, probably in several fields..
Enabling information and communication technoloogies this affects almost all aspects of society. These six megatrends were written-up
The traditional path of science education could be challenged by the role of new organisations, business and communication technologies.
Current information and communicattion technologies (ICTS) can overcome some of these limitations e g. email and conference calls,
International Cooperation in Science and Technology',report of the ERA Expert Group 5, Directorate-General for Research, EUR 23325 EN.
toni. ahlqvist@vtt. fi The systemic characteristics of science, technology and innovation policies have been discussed much recently.
The case studies reflect on how the policy perspectives can be constructed in a dynamic context of societal drivers, solution and market development, and enabling technologies.
socio-technical transformation. 1. Introduction Since the 1960s, the results of R&d practices have increasinngl been approached as knowledge inputs in the construuctio of science and technology policies.
like the perspectives of users, societal regulation and markets, have become core parts of science, technology and, now, innovation policies.
Because of these developments, in the 2000s it has become more common to talk about systemicity in the context of science, technology and innovation (STI) policies.
IPRM integrates the approach of technology roadmapping including such contents as enabling technologies, applications, products, markets and drivers with the perspectives of systemic policies and policy instruments.
The discussion aims to open a perspective on how policy development can be facilitated in a dynamic context of societal challenges and enabling technologies.
Secondly, the literature on systemic innovations and transition managemeen emphasizes the dynamic relations of sociotechnoologica landscapes, socio-technical regimes and niche-level innovations in the context of emerging technologies (Geels and Schot 2007.
Thirdly, the literature on technological systems places the emphasis on networks of agents in a specific economic or industrial sector and the particular institutional infrastructure involved in the generaatio and diffusion of technology (Carlsson and Stankiewicz 1991.
actor assemblages, enabling technologies and related infrastrucctures a temporal scope of the system (e g. what is short-term,
The idea of IPRM is to integrate the analysis of technological change and the analysis of the wider societal setting and to enable systematic analysis of future-oriented ideas that could spring either from technological development, policy practices or more generic societal development.
The first is the culture of technology roadmapping, in which roadmapping is approached as a normative instruumen to identify relevant technologies
and align them with explicit product plans and related action steps. In this culture the roadmapping process is a systematic managemmen practice aimed at product development.
This‘second culture'is methodologically more exploratory than traditional technology roadmapping. The roadmaps are approached not as‘hermetic'plans to achieve definite goals (e g. new products),
Secondly, TM accentuates the interrelatedness of societal and technological systems and the multiplicity of actors.
and communiccatio technologies (ICT) is very different from the long-term of transport or energy infrastructure),
of research and technology development to the systemic frame of policy-making. IPRM can be applied to forward-looking policy design in multiple ways.
Particularly when large sunk costs have been incurred in existing technologies and infrastructures the system is locked often into technological solutions
which are socially subopttima and do not transform automatically through market transactions alone. Roadmapping can articulate these needs more explicitly
and link them with emerging technological and industrial development. Systemic change can be facilitated through different policies, e g. regulation and taxes,
or support for the adoption of new technologies. The third way is to anticipate how and when the demand could be articulated towards the emergence of a new market.
adopting new technologies is very slow due to high switching costs. In other cases, the market does not develop
for example societal drivers, markets, soluttion and technologies in a certain timeframe. A roadmap can create an analytic structure for understandiin how
and when the‘push'created by new technologies and the‘pull'driven by market demand are likely to match,
First, the policies could aim to facilitate the commercialization of public research and technology developpment Secondly,
the more standard technology policies, such as public funding for R&d and innovation, support for technical standardizatiion intellectual property rights regulation and the provisiio of public technical infrastructure, can be applied.
either singular technologies or logical temporal sequences, in the roadmap structure. When the business environment follows the systemic logic of a value network rather than the more linear logic of a value chain,
The key idea of a transformation roadmap is to connect the development of technologies and innovations to a wider societal sphere.
with a primary focus on technologies that enable the sectoral development. Fig. 2 presents the subset of a systemic transformation roadmap, the technology roadmap.
in some cases it is enough to map just the enabling technologies, yet in some cases the market development and actors play more imporrtan roles.
In the first level, technology-based solutions, specific developments of technological solutions are depicted on a level that is assessed as necessary.
At the second level the technologies that enable the solutions as well as the potential technological convergence are mapped.
Commonly, one focuses on technologies that endorse the development of the solutions, but in some cases it is also possible to map the convergence of enabling technologies.
The advantage of this practice is that the enabling technologies are assessed also as evolving constructs and not as singular‘black boxes'.
'The third possible roadmap level accentuates needs and market developments both the market segments and geograpphica market regions that are important for the technology-based solutions under scrutiny.
The fourth potenntia level is capabilities, resources and actors. At this level, the technology is set in its immediate societal context.
Capabilities refer to the competencies, at the scales of individuals, organizations and geography, required to develop the technology.
Resources refer to both material resources and social capital. Actors refer to the individuals, organizations and institutions that are perceived as important in the development of the technology.
There are basically three ways to build roadmaps. The first way is oriented future i e. to define a desired vision and the related future targets,
opportunities based on emerging technologies Technology roadmap 2 Technology roadmap n Figure 1. Generic structure of systemic transformation roadmap. 182.
Commissioned by the Victorian government, the purpose of the Victoria Technology roadmap was to build a synthesizing picture of the effects of emerging technologies and technology convergence in the region of Victoria, Australia, up until the year 2020.
and has also been slow to adopt new technologies. The fragmented structure of the industry, its value chains and business models create barriers to the adoption of new innovations.
Present Medium term Long term Present stage Technology developments 2 Technology developments 3 Technology developments 4 Technologybaase solutions Present Medium term Long term Vision Present stage Technology developments
2 Technology developments 3 Technology developments 4 Present stage Needs and market developments 2 Needs and market developments 3 Needs and market developments 4 Present stage Enabling technologies, convergence
It is among the first to adopt sustainable constructiio technologies and green business models in building and construction.
The key policies can be categorized into the levels of drivers, markets, products and solutions, and technologies.
new solutions, convergence, disruptions Enabling technologies Energy-efficiency requirements, energy price and availability; Scarcity of water; Population growth;
Demonstration projects exhibiting value of green building concepts 3d and product model technologies; Standalone HVAC solutions;
Sensor technologies Product model technologies integrates building in urban infrastructure; Energy harvesting HVAC; User-enabled energy management systems;
Facilitating commercialization of research results TECHNOLOGIES: Public funding for research and technology development; Technology validation; Verification of environmental impacts SOLUTIONS:
Zero energy concepts; Distributed building services systems (e g. cooling, air conditioning, heating; Integrated user interface for all controls of building services;
Collaborative design tools empowering customers SOLUTIONS: Green rating incorporated in pricing throughout the building life-cycle;
LED) High performance insulating materials Product model technologies linking design, building, and operation; Integrated HVAC; Real-time energy management systems;
Low-exergy technologies renewable sources, energy storage; Energy efficient, flexible lighting solutions (e g. OLED) Figure 3. Transformation roadmap of green and intelligent buildings in Victoria, Australia. 184.
Construction regulations have traditionally been based on setting standards for particular technologies or processes. This may have a negative effect on innovattio in the industry
because legitimate solutions will become associated with particular technologies. The movement towards performance-based regulation sets norms for targeted performance outputs instead of opting for specific technical solutions.
because it influences technology development and contributte to innovation through shaping the way in which new technologies are developed.
A further policy proposal would be to catalyse government procurement of green buildings, and also to use the green building standards
At the level of technologies, the three most important policy proposals were: public funding for research and technology development, technoloog validation and the verification of environmental impacts.
Financial support for collaborative Industrial r&d will provide the basis for an innovation-driven construction industry, but should be offset by demandorieente innovation policy measures such as smart regulatiio and public procurement. 4. 2. 3 Sectoral development.
At present, one of the most importaan enabling technologies is 3d and product model technologies, like building information models.
One key enabler is sensor technologies. In particular, micro-electrical mechanical systems sensors, and in the future nano-electrical mechanicca systems sensors and ubiquitous sensing systems are,
development of ICTS will focus on product model technologies linking design, building, operation and real-time EMS.
In materials, a key present enabling technology is advanced materials and energy efficient lighting solutions (e g. LED. In the long term, the use of low-energy technologies and energy efficient, flexible lighting solutions (e g.
OLED) will continue to increase. In addition, important emergent enablers are product model technologies that integrate buildings in urban infrastructure,
energy harvesting HVACS and user-enabled EMS. Innovation policy roadmapping. 185 5. Case study 2: Roadmap of environmentally sustainable ICT, Finland 5. 1 Background The second case study is a roadmap of an emerging systemic field:
The aim of the roadmap is to form a perspecctiv on the issue based on VTT's technological expertiis
and to offer an outlook of the potential developments of green ICT based on VTT's technological competence.
Secondly, an expert workshop with 16 technology experts was organized. Phase III involved the elaboration of the roadmap.
Smart production and recycling technologies have resulted in Drivers Present Medium term Long term Vision Technology roadmap 1:
Smart metering and grid technologies have enabled flexible, accessible and economical energy generation (using renewablles) distribution and consumption both in households and business/industry.
Intelligent transportation systems and remote collaboration technologies have reduced unnecessary traffic and minimised the energy usage of transportation in general.
management solutions based on robotics Distributed small-scale energy production Remote collaboration products Enabling technologies Methods and processes for environmental impact assessment of products and services,
like carbon footprinting Large scale modelling and simulation technologies enable system-level LCA and digital product processes Advanced modelling,
and recycling solutions Modelling and simulation technologies required for LCA tools Wireless sensors Image processing technologies AMR hardware and software Mobile technologies Advanced identification and recognition technologies
for waste management and recycling Web 3. 0 in advanced identification and recognition technologies for waste management and recycling Data mining technologies 3d environments and
virtual worlds ICT solutions, like cloud computing, for smart grids Electricity storages for smart grids 3d Internet technologies Figure 5. Technology roadmap on‘extending natural resources'as a subset of a transformation
and sensor technologies could result in more elaborate energy consumpptio information, from both temporal and load profile perspectives.
technology-enabled solutions and enabling technologies. 5. 4. 1 Technology-enabled solutions. At present, LCA is standardized a method
and many types of LCA software are available. The basic AMR services are maturing. Digital communication channels are challenging the solutiion dedicated solely to teleconferencing.
T. Ahlqvist et al. 5. 4. 2 Enabling technologies. At present, much emphasis is placed on developing methods and processes for the environmental impact assessment of products and services, including carbon footprinting.
The modelling and simulation technologies required for LCA methods are also available. Wireless sensors as well as image processing technologies help in the object recognition needed for automatic waste recycling.
AMR hardware and software are available commercially, off-the-shelf. In the medium term large-scale modelling and simulation technologies will enable system-level LCA, digital product processes,
and a smart energy supply. There are advanced identificatiio and recognition technologies for waste management and recycling.
Web technologies (web 3. 0) are utilized in both energy consumption monitoring and remote collaboraatio solutions. In the long term, advanced modelling, optimization and artificial intelligence methods will enable intelligent products, recycling and energy grid solutions.
Smart grids with controllable distributed energy resources will enable high penetrations of intermittent or non-controllable renewable generation and distributed generation.
varying from cloud computing to communication technologies. 3d internet technologies will enable novel remote collaboration solutions
The aim of the case studies was to reflect on how the policy perspectives can be constructed in a dynamic context of societal drivers, solution and market development, and enabling technologies.
It can also provide a more nuanced perspective of the temporal sequencing of the evolution of technology and innovation,
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The construction of complex products and systems',Research policy, 29: 955 72. Geels, F. W. 2002)‘ Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes:
A multilevel perspective and a case study',Research policy, 31: 1257 74..(2004)‘ From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems.
Kostoff, R. N.,Boylan, R. and Simons, G r. 2004)‘ Disruptive technology roadmaps',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 71: 141 59.
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experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna',Technology analysis and Strategic management, 21: 953 69.
and technology (S&t) co-operation (see Fig. 1). This paper will focus on level four‘programme co-operation and co-ordination'.
call Different expertise levels among participants to work with (online) application forms Limited experience/capacity in pan-European collaboration Lack of common technological basis Differences in scientific
An example is the co-operation between ERA NETS and European technology platforms (Niehoff and Andersdotter 2007.
and innovation communities (KICS) of the European Institute for Innovation and Technology (EIT) also face issues of governance, prioritisaatio and evaluation.
Such differences are caused by the dynamics of evolutionary and systemic processes with different phases of competing technological alternatives and emerging dominant designs (Ko nno la et al. 2011.
The responsibles for the shaping of research agendas realised that a systematti participatory bottom up foresight process could streamline the engagement of Research and Technology development communities from eight countries.
business opportunities, needs for new co-operation structures and breakthrough innovations with regard to the functions of cities in the future (2020 50.
to be identified where additional foresight exercises may be needed Development of an SRF that sets out likely directiion of technological
and participation in transnational research programming, making use of existing initiatives such as the Forlearn Online foresight Guide (European commission 2012) or the UNIDO Technology foresiigh Guide (UNIDO 2012)..
the ERA NET Scheme (ERA NET Actions and ERA NET Plus Actions), Article 185 Initiatives (old Art. 169), European Technology platforms, Joint Technology initiatives, Eureka, JP, the Open
Technologies, Institutions and Organisations. London: Pinter. EMIDA. 2009)‘ Description of Work, Grant Agreement for Co-ordination and Support Actions (Coordinating) EMIDA, Annex 1, approved 31 january 2008 and updated 28 october 2009 (FP7 Theme
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Developing national priorities for the forest-based sector technology platform',International Journal of Technology management, 54: 438 59.
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, 28016 Madrid, Spain 5editage/Cactus Communications Inc.,C-912 BSEL Tech Park, Sector 30a, Vashi, New Mumbai 400 705, India 6austrian Institute of technology, Donau-City-Straße 1, 1220 Vienna, Austria 7advisory Council for Science
and Technology policy, Javastraat 42,2585 AP The hague, The netherlands*Corresponding author. Email: amana@otenet. gr. Future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action
This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the Scanning for Emerging science and Technology Issues project.
emerging science and technology issues; early warning signals; weak signals; horizon scanning; policy support. 1. Introduction The 2000s have witnessed increasing complexities in societies.
The present paper draws on the experiences from the seventh European Framework programme horizon scanning project Scanning for Emerging science and Technology Issues (SESTI.
or seeking and providing new possibilities for new energy technologies and infrastructurres However, within a real bottom-up approach,
promising, threatening, solutioons discoveries, problems, crisis, tensions, growth, breakthroughs, breakdowns, or new insights in combinaatio with the domain demarcating keywords..
The storyline is based on their observations of breakthroughs, discoveries and/or events which facilitate a single
Wikis are based a website technology for mass collaboraativ authoring. Looking at the considerable success of Wikipedia, a wiki could be an interesting source from
In the SESTI project an attempt was made to set up a wiki that specialised in collecting voluntary descriptions from many authors on new emerging issues for science and technology.
which signals (especially in regard to potential scientific breakthrooughs are spread and taken up by different communities. Twitter can also be used as an interactive tool.
The cases of agri-biotechnology and mobile phoning',Science Technology and Human Values, 35: 783 811.
Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 76: 327 38. Freund, F. 2011)‘ Pre-earthquake signals:
Smith, J.,Cook, A. and Packer, C. 2010)‘ Evaluation criteria to assess the value of identification sources for horizon scanning',International Journal of Technology assessment in Health care, 26: 348 53.
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