Understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors Axel Volkery, Teresa Ribeiro European Environment Agency, Strategic Futures Group, Kongens Nytorv 6, DK 1050
and surprises of future developments and better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests is clearly not fully utilized.
Scenario planning Decision support Political and institutional context Evaluation 1. Introduction Policy-makers and business leaders often face strategic decisions with uncertain future outcomes.
As a field of policy action it is characterized by a high degree of problem complexity and uncertainty about long-term future developments.
and Section 6 synthesizes implications for the future development of the evaluative scenario literature. 2. Functions of scenario planning in the policy-making process The scenario planning literature highlights a wide range of decision support functions 8,
and values and helps finding common ground for future action, which in turn is a key essence of policy-making.
and organisations approach their long-term future and make them more adaptive to external changes 11, 12.
taking into account the limitations to shaping the future 18. These direct forms of scenario planning require delivery of more targeted information
. While numerous alternative methodologies exist for future strategic planning, we limited ourselves mainly to literature on scenario planning,
(i e. those driving forces which are highly uncertain in terms of their future development and could have a decisive impact on the topic at hand)
Treatment of surprise and discontinuities A reason often quoted for using scenario planning as a decision support tool is its ability to reduce overconfidence about the future 35.
However, one might argue that the higher costs of inductive approaches in the beginning might pay off later in the process given the fact that unmet expectations about the ability of scenarios to deliver novel insights about future developments oftentimes lead to frustration or rejection of the approach by policy-makers.
Stimulating wider debates about possible futures and clarifying an issues importance were ranked as the objectives of highest relevance.
and less successful in appraising the robustness of options for future action. A couple of arguments were raised to explain this notion.
shaping problem solutions and determining the solution that works best across a range of alternative futures.
In particular this concerns examples of futures thinking that failed to make knowledge useful failed to link it to the real concerns of decision makers,
and futures thinking in more general terms, was described to often be isolated a rather activity. 4. 2. Factors determining success Institutional capacity-building was deemed an important requirement for making overall progress.
and support decision-making include the 5 The Future Analyst Network (FAN-Club) has been established as a permanent network of people dealing with future-related issues in different departments, agencies and the private sector. 1203
The Committee for the Future which is appointed by Parliament and is the only parliamentary committee specifically dedicated to general future concerns in a member country of the European union,
prepares a statement in response. At the same time, the procedure has included a series of Regional Future Forums.
Some critical aspects of institutional arrangements can be distinguished. First, analysis can be conducted by actors within the public administration,
A lot of progress needs to be Fig. 2. The key success factors of scenarios and other futures methodologies. 1204 A. Volkery
Does this assessment mean that future efforts should concentrate rather on indirect forms of scenario-based decision support,
Many practitioners consider scenario building to be a craft or art of challenging mind-sets in strategic conversations about long-term futures.
improving willingness to consider a range of plausible futures, increasingly willingness to think innovatively about robust strategies
In the short run, it can be helpful where the choice of futures tools is appropriate,
References 1 Wavfrify, The role of futures thinking in government: report of the February FAN Club meeting, Prepared for the Horizon scanning Centre, 2008, available at:
and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures 37 (8)( 2005) 795 812.10 R. J. Lempert, S w. Popper, S. C
New methods for Quantitative, Longer-Term Policy analysis, 2003, RAND MR-1626-RPC. 11 C. Selin, Trust and illusive force of scenarios, Futures 38 (1
Exploring the relationship between scenario planning and perceptions of learning organization characteristics, Futures 38 (7)( 2006) 767 777.21 Y. Garb, S. Pulver, S. Vandeveer, Scenarios in society
M. B. A. van Asselt, Practicing the scenario axis technique, Futures 38 (1)( 2006) 15 30.27 D. Groves, D. Knopman, R. Lempert, S. Berry,
Two exploratory studies, J. Bus. Res. 51 (2001) 223 232.29 J. C. Glenn, T. J. Gordon, Factors Required for Successful Implementation of Futures research
, 2006, pp. 57 62.35 P. Van Notten, A m. Sleegers, M. B. A. van Asselt, The future shocks:
on discontinuity and scenario development, Futures 35 (5)( 2003) 423 443.36 Theo J. B. M. Postma, Franz Liebl, How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool?
Assessment of Strategic Alternatives, Edinburgh, 2008.43 K. Van der Heijden, Can internally generated futures accelerate organisational learning?
Futures 36 (2)( 2004) 145 159. Axel Volkery, Phd, is a project manager for policy and scenario analysis at the European Environment Agency in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Teresa Ribeiro heads the Strategic Futures Group of the European Environment Agency in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Received 17 november 2008 Received in revised form 15 july 2009 Accepted 27 july 2009 The democratic deficit (the‘deficit'hereafter) in present institutional Foresight(‘Foresight'hereafter) lies in its participation regime.
but wide spread of stakeholders who will help to shape the future of society through the practical scheme proposed.
Foresight Inclusivity Critical systems Heuristics Nanotechnology 1. Institutional Foresight Institutional Foresight programmes(‘Foresight'hereafter) now occupy a prominent position in the minds of public policy makers.
of important influences that may shape the future of research and indirectly society. It is far from clear that the sponsors of Foresight studies,
Inclusivity is a matter of creating trust across a wide range of communities in discussions of future developments, especially in science and technology.
while an expert may be better at conjecturing about increasingly uncertain future science and technology the non-expert's view about desirability will be as important.
and understanding of new science and future technologies (attempts to so inform the public have so far been limited of success) Improve the anticipation of
what are likely to be desirable uses of anticipated future technologies through public participation in:°‘°‘Placing Foresight programmes in context
what are and what are not desirable future situations°Prioritising the choices that have to be made among the outcomes of Foresight Avoid the assumption that people have infinite plasticity toward new technology Increase trust between policy makers, business and the general public,
national or international are included in future programmes then who are the new groups of people who need to be included?
in all decisions made in the polity in creating the future, a feature pointed out in the 1970s).
or severely restrict the future evolution of nano artifacts many of which are already on sale and widely accepted as desirable artifacts including high factor sun screens, tennis racquets reinforced with carbon nanotubes,
The influence of the EU's Code of conduct (the Code hereafter) for nanoscience nano-technology and nano artifacts is a further matter shaping the future situation surrounding the nano-field.
The seven principles of the Code are: Precaution Inclusiveness though not in the sense used in this paper Integrity Better and constant vigilance to assess developments
of which featured in the earlier discussion of inclusiveness. 6. Epilogue The paper has described a metaphor for Inclusive foresight rather than to be a definitive exposition of future situations
The future of nanotechnologies and their impacts on society require widespread participation in elucidating their acceptability in society.
By suggesting mechanisms to achieve Inclusive foresight the aim is to contribute to the discussions on the future of the nano-field.
the journal of futures studies, strategic thinking and policy,'7, 3, 31 47. We also wish to thank SRI Business intelligence for permission to reproduce the VALS 1 in Fig. 1. Appendix A a summary of the VALS 1 Lifestyle Hierarchy (with acknowledgements to Arnold Mitchell
The Journal of Futures studies, Strategic thinking and Policy 7 (3)( 2005) 31 47.4 A m. Weinberg, Science and trans science, Minerva 10 (1972) 209 222.5 A. Barker, B
. Loveridge, Computers and you, Futures 15 (6)( 1983) 498 503.8 E. Powell, Politicians and the future, Futures (1979) 338 341 August 9 A. Giddens, The Consequences of Modernity
institute for the future's study of the UK: 1978 95, Futures 14 (3)( 1982) 205 239 June 13 D. Loveridge, Foresight seven paradoxes, International Journal of Technology management 21 (7/8
)( 2001) 781 791.14 D. Loveridge, Foresight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future, Routledge, NY, 2009.15 H. G. Daellenbach, Systems thinking & Decision making:
A Management Science Approach, John Wiley, 2001.16 Sir G. Vickers, Appreciative behaviour, Acta Psychologica 21 (1963) 274 293.17 W. Ulrich, The design
An application to prospecting futures of the responsible development of nanotechnology Douglas K. R. Robinson STEPS, University of Twente, Enschede, The netherlands a r t i c l e i n
and incorporates what we call endogenous futures into scenarios which take actors'initiatives and interactions into account.
Scenarios have often been used to create a synthesis of future-oriented aspects prior to an interactive workshop,
i e. offering possible alternative futures to assess and evaluate, or for presenting the playing outs of complex processes.
and deep case research 4 into scenario narratives which place emphasis on the how paths to the future may unfold
actors anticipate on futures and these expectations influence their attempts to shape activities 21. Recent projects such as Socrobust 11 were an attempt at creating anticipatory management
and partial irreversibilisation turning the fluid into the stabilised 9. Future scripts 23, which focus on actors'estimates about desired futures,
also neglects these processes. In this section I use three building blocks to construct a framework for prospecting innovation:
the innovation chain+,and endogenous futures. This framework which can help in structuring large amounts of heterogeneous data,
and promoters who project a linear path from their technology option into the future described in Box 1) and attempted to broaden this concentric bias by taking into consideration open-ended nature of their projections and structured explorations of the journey-like
Paths to the future do not fall out of the sky, they are based on the dynamics of the present:
there are endogenous futures embedded in the present which can give indications and insights into the transition from present into future. 2. 3. Endogenous futures While new (emerging science and technology introduce novelties,
and thus potentially breaking up existing orders to some extent, subsequent developments create new patterns that may lead to stable situations.
Another aspect of endogenous futures is linked with anticipation of actors. Expectations can give indications of directions
Thus, they span up an endogenous future. The idea of endogenous future is midway between attempts at prediction
(which are always precarious) and the suggestion that everything is still possible (and it is just a matter of actors deciding on
of dynamics extending into the future, including irreversibilities that arise. This is the task of scenario builder.
Coupling endogenous futures with characteristics of innovation journeys (from historical case studies) within the framework of the IC+framework helps us structure the complexities
The creation of visions of possible futures in Constructive TA is based on analysis rather than brainstorming.
mutual dependencies and network ties there is an endogenous future 11. While actors will always take enabling and constraining factors in the situation into account,
Constructive TA develops endogenous futures into scenarios which not only take actors'initiatives and interactions into account but also the surrounding or ensuing dynamics and shifts in agendas that slowly become irreversible.
Scenarios are used not anymore to extrapolate particular developments into the future but rather, to enhance the reflexivity of actors regarding strategic decisions
and constrain) the future are particularly visible in the coupled evolution of research, production and use of nanoparticles and the consideration of risks of nanotechnology. 10 Fig. 3 visualizes this (up to 2008.
based on expectations and path dependencies that are crystallising out of the present (endogenous futures). They not only provide a platform for positioning the tensions,
Contrary to many traditional scenario building techniques, these co-evolutionary scenarios do not present mutually exclusive futures. In this way they are similar to the functions of expectations the scenarios can be read
For reasons of space only one example (scenario 3) is given in full in Section 5. The example helps to illustrate elements such as paths and endogenous futures. 4. 1. The three scenarios At the time of the workshop
This was one vision of the future proposed by a number of codes of conduct tabled in the December 2007 EU meeting.
This creates a gap in ethics of the present and near future..Monitoring signatory compliance becomes a major issue Tension:
they should have listened to user needs rather than contemplating far off utopian and dystopian sci-fi futures Consequence of division of RRI labour:
6. Evaluation and discussion These co-evolutionary scenarios can prepare the ground for discussion of complex potential radical technologies via the combination of endogenous futures, the IC+framework and deep case research into actors
Here they show that the patterns that were becoming stabilized by 2007 (identified through exploring endogenous futures) continue to shape development
and outcomes shaped by earlier patterns (endogenous futures), and in terms of encompassing variation and contingencies. The scenarios also worked well in terms of stimulating productive discussion in the workshop.
through exploration of endogenous futures and their playings out in scenarios, helps in creating more reflexive strategies.
and interact within multi-stakeholder workshops. 1237 D. K. R. Robinson/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1222-1239 The scenarios use endogenous futures,
The Yearbook of Nanotechnology in Society, Presenting Futures, vol. I, Springer, Berlin, 2008.4 F. W. Geels, Towards sociotechnical scenarios and reflexive anticipation:
Concepts, Spaces and Tools, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2002.8 J. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technol.
Essays on Power, Technology and Domination, Routledge, London, 1991, pp. 132 161.23 B. de Laat, Scripts for the future technological foresight, strategic analysis and socio technical networks:
relations to emerging societal and industrial needs, with illustrations of future possibilities by way of concrete manifestations (such as innovations).
Smart decision making linked to the ability to innovate calls for the anticipation and exploration of future directions through a societal debate within policy making,
and business decision making a much stronger orientation and capability to address the future in a more systematic way.
and technology was formulated by Ben Martin as‘the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology,
cross-societal discussion of the future prospects for science and technology and with implementing the results of such discussions in priorities for public expenditures on research.
First, foresight exercises include future societal and economic needs and possibilities in the setting of priorities.
1) exploring future opportunities so that priorities for investment in science and innovation activities can be set;(
Foresight and similar future-oriented technology analysis methodds such as trend extrapolation, scenarios, Delphi analysis, focus groups, cross-impact analyses and roadmapping, can be found in traditional business-school
The fact that Delphi surveys often solely include point of views from scientists indicates that scientists in such surveey are expected to know about the future development of technology.
and lists of approaches and methood for foresight have been suggested by different authors in review articles on foresight and future-oriented technology assessment methods (Technology Futures analysis Methodsworking Group 2004).
Rather, foresight is a field of practice with origins in several other more or less established academic disciplines such as evolutionary economy, strategy, technology assessment or social studies of science, futures studies.
Some authors have suggested that foresight has emerged from the convergence of the three disciplines and practices of policy development, strategic planning and futures studies (Gavigan et al. 2001),
In the same way, foresight exercises and similar strategic activities aim to position national research optimally in relation to future opportuniitie in the strategic environment of national research programmes:
In many contexts political interests are as legitimate as‘neutral'expectations about future developments. In this perspective the premises for foresight might be that:
and strategy in national research councils and research programmes 923 Foresight and strategy focus on competencies and visions for defining future development;
underpinning priorities related to scientific strengths rather than future societal or industrial potentials The strategy of developing new production and consumption systems:
especially with respect to elements such as the legitimacy of discussing long-term future perspectives and the inclusion of actors.
For example, wordings like‘hypotheses about future applications'are understood easier than‘Delphi statement'.'Fourth, foresight exercises are understood often
The strategy processes can benefit from better articulated expectations about future technologiies It is not enough to argue that a certain technology offers great opportunities for future commercial exploitation.
and future energy technologies. He has headed and participated in numerous national and international studies. Mads Borup is a senior scientist at the Innovation systems
Futures research Quarterly 17, no. 2: 33 55. Karlsen, J. E, . and H. Karlsen. 2007. Expert groups as production units for shared knowledge in energy foresight.
Technology Futures analysis Methodsworking Group. 2004. Technology future analysis: towards integration of the field and new methods.
Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 3: 287 303. The Prime minister's Office. 2006: Progress, innovation and cohesion.
and future-oriented‘intelligence'),'the organisation of dialogic spaces that are hijacked not solely'by special interests
Rather, it is looking to identify new areas in which to invest much of the spending increases with a view to developing future‘competence niches'.
while a final section draws some summary conclusions and highlights lessons for future foresight practice. 2. STI Policy in Luxembourg Before the 1980s,
However, with increased recognition of the role of research and innovation in contributing towards the future development of the country,
but will also steer them to conduct more leading-edge research in topic areas that are likely to be important for Luxembourg's future socioeconnomi development.
better informed through the involvement of a wider set of actors taking into account longer-term futures.
'since future investments in research infrastructures or future changes in policies/regulations, for example, can make a significant difference to a country's ability to exploit a particular S&t thematic area.
These were focused all upon identifying future research directions for Luxembourg. In parallel, key trends and thematic research priorities were collected from 13 countries.
assessment of domains Future trends Luxembourg context Research priorities candidates Conclusion & recommendations Phase 2: Setting Context/Identifying Priorities Data collection Bibliometrics Interviews International research trends Evaluation of FNR programmes Mapping of Lux.
on the understanding that it would provide a more participative (involving knowledge users as well as producers) and future-oriented (visionary) approach to identifying topic areas suitable for new FNR programmes.
which presented the first opportunity that participants in the exercise had to discuss the future of the research system together.
and populate future FNR programmes. Accordingly, the online survey and subsequent workshops invited participants to nominate new research axes as well.
On top of this, the workshops were often the first opportunity that people had to discuss the future of the research system together
Thinking for the future today. Luxembourg: Fonds National de la Recherche. Georghiou, L, . and M. Keenan. 2006.
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis: experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna K. Matthias Weber a, Klaus Kubeczko a, Alexander Kaufmann a & Barbara Grunewald a a Austrian Institute of technology, Department Foresight
K. Matthias Weber, Klaus Kubeczko, Alexander Kaufmann & Barbara Grunewald (2009) Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis:
8 november 2009,953 969 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis: experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna K. Matthiasweber*,Klaus Kubeczko, Alexander Kaufmann and Barbara Grunewald Austrian Institute of technology, Department Foresight and Policy development, Vienna
policy impact 1. Introduction In 2006, the City of Vienna initiated a far-reaching and open strategy process on the orientation of its future research, technology and innovation (RTI) policy.
as well as a perspective on future challennge and key areas for action that had been developed in the context of a participatory process.
and shape future developments in an efficient and fully informed manner, the late 1970s saw the emergence of a new paradigm in research, technology and then also innovation policies,
However, the growing complexity of innovation processes is recognised also by stressing the bottom up Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 955 component of networking
Thus, a shared understanding of problems, goals and development options can be expected to emerge among those actors that have an important role to play in shaping the future.
In other words, the future is being shaped by aligning expectations and thus‘creating'a self-fulfilling prophecy.
1) Policy informing by generating consolidated findings concerning the dynamics of change, future challenges and options and transmitting it to policy makers as an input into policy conceptualisation and design.
3) Policy facilitating by building a common awareness of current dynamics and future developmment as well as new networks and visions among stakeholders,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 957 Table 1. A Framework to classify the impacts of foresight activities.
(knowledge network) Intermediate Articulation of joint visions of the future, establishing longer-term perspectives Ultimate Integrating new able actors in the community that is shaping an area of concern Counselling Immediate Making hidden agendas
and took first exploratory steps towards identifying future challenges for the RTI policy of the City of Vienna. 4 The research programme was implemented as a joint undertaking by the City of Vienna and Austrian Research centres.
and analyses to underpin the development of an integrated, future-oriented urban research and innovation policy.
it is captured not fully by The english translation‘Vienna Looks to the Future knowledge means change'.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 959 Panel 1 FTI in business Integrative concept for RTI-strategy Panel
These four crosscutting topics were regarded also as crucial for the future, but there were less clearly defined political responsibilities in place for dealing with them.
The panel reports had to provide an analysis and outlook on future challenges in their respective areas,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 961 4. Objectives,
therti process‘Wien denkt Zukunft'identified five key fields for action on which the City of Vienna will concentrate its future RTI policy (see Figure 2):(1) Human resources
between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 963 life sciences, information technologies and the creative industries) will be promoted actively. A first call in this new area was launched in the first half of 2008, focusing on Arts&sciences.
Ashared understanding of the future challengeswas created, but it remains to be seen whether the interactions will be sustainable
implicit agendas and objectives had to be made more explicit to provide the basis for the joint definition of future challenges, fields of action and kickoff projects;
and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 965 boundary-crossing initiatives are difficult to realise.
and other research and innovation actors is one of the issues on the future agenda, including the dialogue with the public.
A shared view of future challenges and a better mutual understanding of potential joint interests and differences in opinion have been achieved,
The nature of the results is probably not forward-looking and innovative enough to really influence the future agendas of individual organisattions
As part of the process a jointly developed view of the main future objectives, challenges and key areas of action was agreed upon, combining elements of a joint vision.
and thus to the consideration of alternative futures had been addressed in the forward-looking part Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 967 of the preceding research programme on the Viennese innovation system,
It is one of the intentions for the future to reinforce this dialogue, though. Overall, the need to achieve consensus on immediate policy actions among the key local policy actors implied that several of the more controversial issues,
and strategy process had a quite significant impact on guiding the future research and innovation policy in Vienna, but the closeness to policy making implied that some of the exploratory and‘out-of-the-box'thinking that would usually be part of a foresight process was regarded not desirable
2. Obviously, there are also certain types of foresight exercises that have a less pro-active intention by concentrating on the identification of future challenges
Paper presented at the 40th Anniversary Conference of SPRU,‘The Future of Science, Technology and Innovation policy:
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 969 Smits, R,
the project leadership resolved issues of stakeholder interests and futures literacy before they received their contributions.
stakeholder participation Introduction Foresight is among the most widespread and accepted forms of organised future-oriented activities today. 1 As a widely applied method for dialogical future thinking,
transport or local government, acknowledge the increasing demand for democratic dialogue about the future with affected parties and interest groups.
There is an increasingly participatory dialogue about the future between organisattion and various social groups such as knowledge workers (including experts), stakeholders and users of public services.
and the idea of shaping the future by influencing public policy and strategic decisions. 3 In their seminal paper on‘Inclusive foresight'Loveridge and Street (2005) argue that the credibiilit of foresight is dependent on extending participation to social stakeholders, especially those not normally seeking participation themselves.
What results can we expect from their participation in a visioning project in terms of knowledge, perspective or future literacy?
when the goal is to create a shared and desired picture of the future, as is often the case in municipal visioning projects.
Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS)( 2005 7)‘ a vision is imagined an representation or a shared picture of the (usually desired future'.
'The World Future Society, an international organisation propagating foresight, describes visioning as‘the process of creating a series of images
or visions of the future that are real and compelling enough to motivate and guide people toward focusing their efforts on achieving certain goals'(Cornish 2004,300).
Visions as desired images of the future can be the result of a range of different foresight processes;
involving not only the creation of a desired future picture, but also preceding steps, such as understanding past and present,
and exploring the future in different scenarios (Godet 2001). In the literature on municipal planning, visioning is regarded as a separate method,
as a more direct process of establishing a desired vision of a communal future not necessarily based on different future scenarios. 5 This latter approach is politically crucial for public organisations trying to develop policy and long-term thinking.
in exploring different possible futures and understanding future risks. Ling (2002,127, n9) writes that‘All policy makers are expected to think about the risks associated with a policy
Visioning here has the clear advantage of concentrating on creating a shared and desired picture of the future from the very beginning of the process.
which ideas of the future should be labelled as‘desired 'and how the resulting visions should be used in the planning context.
arguing that its practices point to certain ways of framing and rationalising the future (Rappert 1999.
Brown, Rappert, andwebster (2000,4) have pointed out that from an STS point of view foresight practices are not so much about looking into the future,
but looking at the future:‘‘Our purpose is to shift the discussion from looking into the future to looking at how the future as a temporal abstraction is constructed
and managed, by whom and under what circumstances'.'They emphasise that future negotiating processes have to be studied according to how they are performed instead of looking at them as mere problem-solving tools for more prudent strategic decision making. 6 The Sociology of expectations analyses foresight practises as structured around expectations and promises in technology,
science and innovation. 7 Expectations embrace both the possiblle probable and the highly unlikely, and thus address the uncertainty of the future.
Scholars of organisation theories, however, have questioned the direct influence of scientific expectatiion and technological promises on strategic development of organisations (Sanz-Menéndez and Cabello 2000;
In the context of future orientation, reflexivity has evolved from an understanndin of human practice as described by Garfinkel (1967) via a social theory of modernity introduced by among others Giddens (1991) and Beck, Bonss,
and Lau (2003,2) refer to‘reflexive social institutions'as central agents charged with the responsibility to make‘reasonable decisions about the future...
however, is given to the paradoxical aspects of reflexive knowledge in its relation to expectations and the organisation of the future.
How do we mobilise knowledge for futureorieente activities and expectations about future development? Giddens (1991,29) argues that our present knowledge about social institutions
a desired future picture of Lundal The municipality of Lundal10 is situated closely to the Norwegian capital of Oslo and one of the richest municipalities in Norway.
'Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 976 S. Jenssen Figure 1. The future picture of Lundal was situated clearly within the possible and desirable.
and desirable future outcomes of municipal development without defining these further. This pointed towards a relative flexibility of what was regarded as possible and desirable development.
which led straight to the desired future vision, a narrow frame with a picture entitled‘Lundal'.
A similar illustration used during presentations of the project showed several figures without the orientation symbolised by the future picture in front of them.
indicating that without a clear vision of the future long-term planning would only lead to chaos and a waste of time and resources.
and their contributions were considered important for how this future picture should be developed. At the same time, the municipal project leadership clarified early on how their contributions would be handled in the context of municipal planning.
977 the interests of the political representatives, both as contributors to the future pictures and as the ultimate recipients of a vision proposal:
and colleges to structure the future pictures. These future pictures will be discussed and supplied with suggestions from other actors and where the politicians would like to be represented before the head of administration writes a proposal for visions and goals
which will be discussed in the community council. 12 With those clear definitions regarding process and result already in place, one might expect the participation of the young people to be relatively open and inclusive.
It arises when social stakeholders are made participants in a foresight process aiming at producing one desired vision of the future.
and giving priority to their ideas about Lundal's future was expressed by the community council in September 2005:‘
‘The young people are the future; therefore they should be involved in discussing it'.'Another argument used during the meeting was that the young people of today would spend most of their lives in Lundal.
Defining young people as embodying the future made them important stakeholders in the further development of an already wealthy community.
and aggression'associated with the strongest driving forces in future decision making. They were assumed to have no capitalist aspirations.
which the municipality can analyse later. 13 The image of young people as being free from capitalist motives was coupled with a clear request to leave out ideas about physical future projects.
Rainer Ehrt used by the vision project leader to underline the lack of capitalist interests in young people's ideas about the future.
and nonrefleective essentially mirroring their hopes, beliefs and concerns about the future. Therefore their ideas would have to be developed into short stories,
These future pictures were to be written using expected trends in municipal developmmen coupled with the young people's ideas.
The most desired future pictures should lead to one collective vision. The project group suggested design depicted in Figure 3. The young students'ideas would
thus be the initial creative input to the future pictures which would lead to a desired vision of Lundal.
979 Figure 3. The design of the municipal vision project according to the project group, February 2006. schools systematically and created three future pictures,
These future pictures were presented then in a workshop with communal and cultural organisations to discuss which of these were most desirable.
Some grown-up participants criticised the future pictures for being too rosy and promising. They criticised the absence of reflexive and critical inquiry into these future visions
and warned about the possible alienating effects such visions could have on social groups already living on the fringes of society.
Therefore we rather call it future pictures, or scenario seeds, which could be developed further if one wishes to do so. 17 Although the future ideas were presented as being created entirely by the young,
Instead, the politicians suggested that the future pictures should be used by the young people's community council (YPCC.
The municipal leadership suggested that the YPCC could use these future pictures as a basis for their own visions, values and goals.
the future visions were redirected'to being used by the young people themselves, arguably with less political and operative impact.
In both respects they can be seen as counterparts to the usually implied preconditions for any participation in a future-oriented activity:
They were described as embodying the future, living their future lives in the community, and possessing no capitalist interests (Table 1). Interestingly,
however, this image construction as authentic stakeholders was not enough to define their role as participants.
Areas Pre-definitions as stakeholders Preconditions for their contributions as participants Cognitive Young people are the future Imagine yourselves as grown-ups in 2020!
Social Living their future lives in Lundal Concentrate on issues of well-being in society! Ask your parents and neighbours!
and scholars have discussed the value of a futures approach in the field of community planning as not necessarily‘in discovering new factual knowledge about sustainable urban developmment
what their own ideas about the future might be, based on the knowledge acquired by asking parents, friends and neighbours. 20 Nevertheless,
when organisations intend to create one desired vision of the future. The case discussed here illustrates Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 982 S. Jenssen that power in such processes is both hierarchical and relational, yet‘not simply a relationship between partners, individual or collective;
Conclusion Foresight belongs to the toolbox for achieving good and reflexive governance23 and thus strengthennin the participatory and future-oriented aspects of governing.
they are involved in the practical reality of political and social agents competing for the right to represent future developments.
'If municipal visioning is supposed to produce a shared picture of the desired future, it cannot be too far away from the municipality's idea of the future.
Otherwise they cannot share it. Acknowledgements The author would like to thank Brita Staxrud Brenna, Beate Elvebakk, Jon Hovland and the anonymous referees for their valuable comments regarding this paper,
Her main interests are negotiations of economic and social value in future orientation, reflexivity and stakeholder participation as well as collective scenario writing,
2008,12) foresight differs from other forms of future orientation only in two respects: It is not only forecasting (let alone prediction),
'and it is not‘Ivory tower'future studies, in which an expert academic‘produces its vision of the future or of alternative futures'.
'Apart from that, many methods, also forecasting methods can be included. Foresight practitioner and theorist Ron Johnston (2008,18) asserts:‘
4. In scenario planning a set of alternative scenarios are created to achieve an understanding of the range of possible future developments, more or less regardless of
what we wish the future to be. Visioning, however, emphasises positive values, on the assumption that images of a desired future can direct individuals'present behaviours,
guide choices and influence decisions. As with other future methods, the perspective on visioning is dependeen on the context in
which it is used. For more insight into scenarios and visions work, see Van Notten (2005) and Gertler and Wolfe (2004.
) 6. Slaughter (2004,92 4) sees the development of Critical Future Studies (CFS) following the traditions of STS in‘challenging the inevitability
'He describes CFS as belonging to the layer of critical and epistemological futures work that goes furthest in studying the social construction of reality,
and of the future, by taking into account the role of language and of power. 7. The sociology of expectations is influenced by Science and Technology studies (STS) and Actor-Network-theory (ANT),
which collecctiv expectations are predefined by governmental actors who need to establish future visions firmly within the frame of existing governmental structures.
Expectational reflexivity delimits our ability to influence the future, simppl because existing rules and constraints are taken for granted as preconditions for future environments (Jenssen,
forthcoming) 9. Community engagement refers to the process by which community benefit organisations and individuals build ongoinng permanent relationships for the purpose of applying a collective vision for the benefit of a community (definition from wikipedia. org).
The notions of active citizenship and community involvement have become increasingly promineen in political discussions and policy practices within planning and future oriented governance (Stukas and Dunlap 2002;
and guidance literature interact with research areas of science and technology studies (STS), especially regarding insights about the relationships between‘given facts and future values'.
‘in a wide range of contexts, present day evidences, proofs, facts or truths are giving way to future-oriented abstractions premised on desire,
It is also responsive to the present and future needs of society. 20. Local newspaper article, 5 april 2006.21.
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