reflections from the Finnish food and drink industry, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1 2)( 2009) 70 88.27 T. Ko nno la, V
An early example of this concept was the Finnish Governments knowledge cluster programme of the mid-1990s.
Generation of innovation ideas in Finnish Foresight Forumf 20 Informative Identification of future developments in nutrigenomics,(ii) health care and social services and (iii) services for the provision of personal experiences.
f Commissioned by the Finnish Government. g A FP5 IST Thematic Network (2002 2005) coordinated by JRC-IPTS and managed in collaboration with DG Information society. h Commissioned by JRC-IPTS.
The first one was an internal foresight project in VTT Technical research Centre of Finland. The key foci of the VTT Water Research Roadmap were the creative combination of wide-ranging water related issues at VTT as well as the generation of new R&d initiatives.
reflections from the Finnish food and drink industry, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1 2)( 2004) 70 88.11 O. Helmer, Looking Forward:
lang=2&oiid=8661&pid=572 (2009-11-10). 20 Finnish Foresight Forum (in Finnish), available at:
A knowledge-based perspective A. Eerola A i. Miles b a VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Espoo, Finland b Manchester Institute of Innovation research, Manchester united Kingdom 1
The tool is developed by the Finnish company Fountain Park. 5 Another tool for using weak signals in organizations is called the Futures Windows 5, in
16 E. Hiltunen, Weak signals, Presentation given at the Finland futures research centre, 2007. Available at: http://www. slideshare. net/whatidiscover/weaksiggnal (last visited on:
while retaining the current standard of living in Finland. Four scenarios were constructed by looking back to the present from the future state of 2050 The main purpose in using the scenario approach was not to predict
Backcasting scenarios for Finland 2050 of low emissions Sirkka Heinonen and Ville Lauttama ki Abstract Purpose The objective of this paper is to present an example on how futures studies methodologies,
progression and the results of the backcasting exercise of the Finnish Prime minister's Office. Findings The backcasting methodology
Keywords Delphi method, Environmental politics, Government policy, Scenario planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Case study Introduction Since the 1990s each new Finnish government has prepared a comprehensive foresight report
In 2008-2009 The Finnish Prime minister's Office coordinated the construction of the government foresight report on climate and energy policy (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
and paths that would lead Finland to PAGE 304 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012,
and Ville Lauttama ki is a Researcher, both at the Finland futures research centre, University of Turku, Turku, Finland. low-carbon society by the year 2050.
The scenario process was facilitated by the Finland futures research centre (FFRC) of the University of Turku in late 2008.
and energy strategy for Finland 1. The time horizon in the climate and energy strategy was 2020,
B Population of Finland is assumed to grow from the current 5. 3 million to 5. 7 million by 2050.
B Finnish economy will grow markedly by 2050, but the structure of the economy can change.
B Finns'values towards measures for environmental conservation will change to a favourable direction and preparedness to take action to restrict emissions will increase.
B Climate change will alter the conditions in Finland by 2050: the need for heating energy will diminish
and 2. growing interest towards backcasting scenarios had been shown in Finland, but very few exercises have actually been carried out.
housing and industry) in cutting down the GHG's. Other background questions related to societal conditions that affect the way different aspects of climate policy would be received in the Finnish society.
such as how much inconvenience the Finns are ready to accept in exchange for more sustainable future, were asked.
the imaginary phase (futures wheel), systematic phase (futures table) and explanatory phase (drafting an array of scenarios for sustainable Finland 2050.
The workshop produced a considerable amount of material concerning the workings of the Finnish society
regarding to climate change mitigation as well as a variety of futures visions of sustainable Finland. This material was used as building blocks for the next phase of the exercise,
These three sectors constitute the majority of the energy use in Finland: industry (50 per cent), heating of buildings (21 per cent), transport (17 per cent) and miscellaneous uses (13 per cent)( Statistics Finland, 2009.
During the scenario process no significant new energy uses outside these sectors were thought to emerge by 2050.
(what a small country such as Finland does, has no effect on the global problem; therefore it does not make sense to burden oneself with trying), scattered community structure, motoring as every man's right,
There were also positive factors in the Finnish society that favour the attainment of the climate policy goals.
These included the Finn's close relationship to nature and a genuine will of most members of society to work for the environment, obedience of the law, good technological know-how, abundant resources of biofuels and the infrastructure from forest to industry already in place (as a heritage from paper and pulp industry),
as well as the fact that Finns are accustomed already to recycling their waste. After the work assigned for the FFRC was agreed finished as,
The Committee had its own analyses of the Finnish climate policy made on three aspects:
remarked on that occasion that it was a major breakthrough achievement to have committed Finland to reducing its emissions to a sustainable level by at least 80 per cent from the 1990 level by 2050.
Finland of low emissions 2050. The measures and steps for reaching that goal will continue to be under debate.
kohti va ha pa a sto ista Suomea, Parliament Report by the Committee for the Future, Helsinki (in Finnish.
Lauttama ki, V. and Heinonen, S. 2010), Va ha isten pa a sto jen Suomi 2050.
Tulevaisuuden tutkimuskeskus, Turun yliopisto, TUTU-e-julkaisuja 8/2010 (in Finnish with an English abstract), available at:
Towards a Low-carbon Finland, Prime minister's Office Publication 30/2009, available at: www. vnk. fi/julkaisukansio/2009/j28-ilmasto-selonteko-j29-klimat-framtidsredogoerelse-j30-climate /pdf/en. pdf (accessed 20 december 2011.
Statistics Finland (2009),‘Final energy consumption by sector 2008'',available at: www. stat. fi/til/ehkh/2008/04/ehkh 2008 04 2009-03-24 kuv 017 en. html (accessed 20 december 2011.
Assessment of the Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy'',Prime minister's Office, Helsinki, Prime minister's Office Publications 3/2011, available at:
Valtioneuvoston kanslian raporttisarja 4/2011 (in Finnish), available at: www. vnk. fi/julkaisukansio/2011/r04-05-06-tulevaisuusselonteko-suosituksia/PDF/fi. pdf (accessed 20 december 2011.
About the authors Sirkka Heinonen holds a Doctor's degree in Philosophy from Helsinki University. She is Professor of Futures research at the Finland futures research centre, University of Turku.
Previously she was a Chief Research scientist at the Technical research Centre of Finland (VTT. Her expertise is concerned with futures research, sustainable development, technology foresight, energy and environment,
and the future of communities. On these topics she has conducted several research projects and written research reports.
Lauttama ki works as a Researcher at the Finland futures research centre of the University of Turku. He has worked on a number of futures-oriented research and development projects with several Finnish ministries and security organisations and in several EU-funded research projects.
His main research interests are in environment, energy and security issues. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 315 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
and present four case studies of road mapping projects from the Technical research Centre of Finland (VTT). How to forecast technologies that depend mainly on discontinuous advances?
Merenneidontie 24 D, 02320, Espoo, Finland Published online: 28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Ilkka Tuomi (2012) Foresight in an unpredictable world, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 735-751, DOI:
Merenneidontie 24 D, 02320 Espoo, Finland Unpredictability has two main sources: epistemic uncertainty and ontological unpredictability.
He has a Phd in adult education (knowledge management) and MSC in theoretical physics, both from University of Helsinki.
Helsinki: Metaxis. Tuomi, I. 2002. Networks of innovation: Change and meaning in the age of the Internet.
constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland Toni Ahlqvist a, Minna Halonen a, Annele Eerola a, Sirkku Kivisaari a, Johanna Kohl a, Raija Koivisto
a, Jouko Myllyoja a & Nina Wessberg a a VTT Technical research Centre of Finland; Itäinen Pitkäkatu 4, 20521, Turku, Finland Published online:
28 aug 2012. To cite this article: Toni Ahlqvist, Minna Halonen, Annele Eerola, Sirkku Kivisaari, Johanna Kohl, Raija Koivisto, Jouko Myllyoja & Nina Wessberg (2012) Systemic transformation, anticipatory culture
constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 821-841, DOI:
constructing organisational capacities in roadmapping projects at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland Toni Ahlqvist*,Minna Halonen, Annele Eerola, Sirkku Kivisaari, Johanna Kohl, Raija Koivisto
, Jouko Myllyoja and Ninawessberg VTT Technical research Centre of Finland; Itäinen Pitkäkatu 4, 20521 Turku, Finland This article suggests that,
in the current interlinked innovation meta-system, research and technollog organisations (RTOS) would benefit from developing two systemic capacities:
In this article, we explore the questions of systemic transformations and the building of an anticipaator culture in the context of VTT Technical research Centre of Finland.
We explore the questions of systemic transformations in the context of Finnish RTO, namely VTT Technical research Centre of Finland,
e g. in a novel way to characterise building services Catalysing a new bedrock for building services in Finland by stating the VTT state-of-the-art in research New enabling technologies were identified,
It also endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research in Finland and in Europe.
opportunities and challenges Markets for new services and service providers in the field Capacities and methods for creating new knowledge in the network Endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research both in Finland and Europe
and information security), on the layer of four Nordic countries (Finland, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark) and on the layer of the Nordic region as a strategic entirety.
and compare the implications of the ICT applications in four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden).
Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Strategy Assessing the implications of the ICT applications in four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway,
Acknowledgements Toni Ahlqvist wishes to thank the Academy of Finland (grant SA132628) for the financial support for this work.
Currently, he works as a postdoctoral researcher at the Academy of Finland. His current research focusses on socio-spatial transformations induced by science, technology, and innovation policies.
She holds a Phd from Helsinki Swedish School of economics and Businessadministration and Lic. Tech Degree from Helsinki University of Technology.
Sirkku Kivisaari works as a senior scientist at VTT. Her educational background is in business management.
Helsinki: VTT Publications, Edita Prima Oy. Ahlqvist, T.,H. Carlsen, J. Iversen, and E. Kristiansen. 2007b.
VTT, Tampere In Finnish. Paiho, S.,T. Ahlqvist, E. Lehtinen, J. Laarni, K. Sipilä, P. Ala-Siuru,
Edita, Helsinki In Finnish. Petrick, I. J, . and A e. Echols. 2004. Technology roadmapping in review:
In the last ten to 15 years, Japan (National Institute of Science and Technology policy, 2010), Finland (University of Joensuu, 2010), the UK (Loveridge et al.
University of Joensuu (2010),‘Foresight for the development of forest sector in Finland till 2020'',Future Forum on Forests of Finland.
Future challenges to the Finnish Forest Sector, University of Joensuu and Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of Finland, available at:
However, it has been applied by the Finnish innovation Fund to develop holistic understanding of a challenge with issues related to ageing, education,
Recipes for Systemic change, Helsinki Design Lab Powered by Sitra, 2010, Available at: http://helsinkidesignlab. org/peoplepods/themes/hdl/downloads/In studio-Recipes for systemic change. pdf. Last accessed July 2012.44 J. Alcamo, D. van Vuuren, C. Ringler
In contrast, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, The netherlands, Belgium, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Japan are mentioned as examples of CME.
Proceedings of the 8th international interactive conference on Interactive TV & Video, ACM, Tampere, Finland,(2010), pp. 15 22.25 E. Von Hippel, The dominant role of users
Six nodes, in Berlin, Paris, Eindhoven, Stockholm, Helsinki and Trento, operate physical co-location centers (CLCS) where most of the KIC activities are carried out 54.
Belgium and Switzerland (Habeggeer 2009) while other countries are building up scan-based policy documents (Finland (Academy of Finland and TEKES, 2006), Canada (Smith,
References Academy of Finland and TEKES, 2006. Finnsight 2015, the outlooo for science technology and society.
Summary available from<http://www. aka. fi/Tiedostot/Tiedostot/Julkaisut/Finnsight 2015 en. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
Barre, R and M Keenan 2006. Evaluation, Impact and Learning, Anchor paper Theme 2. Paper presented at Second joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 18 International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
and representatives interviewed incluuded Forfas in Ireland, the National Institute for S&t policy (NISTEP) in Japan, the Asia-pacific Economic cooperation (APEC) Center for Technoloog Foresight in Thailand, Finnsight 2015 (encompasssin a mix of Nokia
and SITRA) and the Helsiink University of Technology) in Finland, Foresiigh in the UK, the Denmark National Technology Board,
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synchronization with the business agenda of the organization Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 36 Ireland, Japan, Finland and the UK;
2 Finland has a mix of agencies but the key organizattiona factor is that there is a strong historical commitment to technology foresight
In Finland, the Parliamenntar Committee on the Future is supported by a national fund for R&d (SITRA-government investtment augmented by a significant Nokia share sale in the 1990s) as well as by government S&t focused agencies such as the TEKES, VTT
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-00014 University of Helsinki, Finland*Corresponding author. Email: michael. keenan@oecd. org Over the coming decades, science will play a key role in society's response to emerging global‘grand challenges'.
*Ville Valovirta2 and Torsti Loikkanen2 1vtt Technical research Centre of Finland, Ita inen Pitka katu 4, Turku, P o box 106,20521 Turku, Finland 2vtt Technical research
Centre of Finland, Tekniikantie 2, P o box 1000,02044 VTT, Finland*Corresponding author. Email: toni. ahlqvist@vtt. fi The systemic characteristics of science, technology and innovation policies have been discussed much recently.
It also illustrates IPRM with two case studies from Australia and Finland. The case studies reflect on how the policy perspectives can be constructed in a dynamic context of societal drivers, solution and market development, and enabling technologies.
In Sections 4 and 5, respectively, we provide two case studies from Australia and Finland. The function of the case studies is to demonstrate how the IPRM method can be utilized in the mapping of systemic policy-level trajectories.
The development of the IPRM method, still an ongoing process, is an outcome of several projects realized at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland.
Roadmap of environmentally sustainable ICT, Finland 5. 1 Background The second case study is a roadmap of an emerging systemic field:
It was completed as a strategic process at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland in 2010, with two aims:
seamless integration of virtual and physical Cross reality applications Advanced virtual solutions and services e g. in health Figure 4. Transformation roadmap of environmentally sustainable ICT, Finland. 186.
It exemplified IPRM with two case studies from Australia and Finland. The aim of the case studies was to reflect on how the policy perspectives can be constructed in a dynamic context of societal drivers, solution and market development, and enabling technologies.
The second case study (environmentally sustainable ICT in Finland) was an example of a more focused exercise that envisaged the outlines of an emerging systemic and strategic field.
Acknowledgements Toni Ahlqvist wishes to thank the Academy of Finland (grant SA 132628) for the financial support that enabled the writing of this paper.
Helsinki: Edita Prima Oy. Barker, D. and Smith, D. J. H. 1995)‘ Technology foresight using roadmaps',Long Range Planning, 28:21 8. Blackwell, A f.,Phaal, R.,Eppler, M
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VTT, the Finnish research organisation, has a rather centralised research and technology development portfolio development. Although VTT is a governmental agency
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