On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues Effie Amanatidou1,,
and therefore present a significant foresight challenge both for policy makers and researchers (Mendonc¸a et al. 2009) Emerging issues Beyond horizon scanning the concept of emerging issues is used also in the area of risk assessment (Marvin et al. 2009), in the field of environmental issues (Sutherland et al. 2010) and in organisations in their environmental scanning (Morrison 1992).
For the more creative function it is necessary to realise that the shaping of emerging issues is a social activity where foresight intelligence is shaped (re by the perceptions,
Notes 1. See<http://www. bis. gov. uk/foresight/our-work/horizonscanning-centre>accessed 21 december 2011.2.
<http://www. unido. org/foresight/rwp/dokums pres/tf plenary georghiou 201. pdf>accessed 8 september 2011. Hiltunen, E. 2008a)‘ The future sign and its three dimensions',Futures, 40: 247 60..(
Loveridge, D. 2009)‘ Foresight: The Art and Science of Anticipating the Future'.'New york and London:
which in turn contributes to the enhanced transparency and legitimacy of foresight. Keywords: horizon scanning; foresight; grand challenges;
policy coordination; futures. 1. Introduction In future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), the systematti exploration of divergent views on future developments has tended to receive less attention than approaches that foster consensus seeking (Ko nno la et al. 2011;
These issues were complemented with additional issues from the FTA 2008 conference survey. 3 3. 2 Assessment of issues The formulated issues were assessed in an online survey by some 270 external experts who represented foresight practitiooners
font styles of issue codes refer to results obtained in different RPM analyses(<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/survey issues. pdf,
The particularly novel issues from this survey were added to the issues collected from the literature review. 4. These issues plus the 73 additional issues identified by the survey participants can be found at<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/bepa. html
Brummer, V.,Ko nno la, T. and Salo, A. 2008)‘ Foresight within Era nets: Experiences from the preparation of an international research programme',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 75: 483 95.
Fuerth, L. S. 2009)‘ Foresight and anticipatory governance',Foresight, 11:14 32. Georghiou, L. and Cassingena Harper, J. 2011)‘ From priority-setting to articulation of demand:
Foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy',Futures, 43: 243 51. Glenn, J. C.,Gordon, T. J. and Florescu, E. 2010) State of the Future, The Millenium Project.
Graefe, A.,Luckner, S. and Weinhardt, C. 2010)‘ Prediction markets for foresight',Futures, 42: 394 404.
Haegeman, K.,Cagnin, C.,Ko nno la, T.,Dimitrov, G. and Collins, D. 2011)‘ Web 2. 0 for foresight:
Experiences on an innovation platform in European agenda setting'in Proceedings of the FTA 2011 Conference, Seville,<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/>accessed 26 september 2011.
Ko nno la, T.,Brummer, V. and Salo, A. 2007)‘ Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 74: 608 26.230.
Ko nno la, T.,Haegeman, K. and Guy, K. 2012)‘ Embedding foresight in transnational research programming',Science and Public policy, 39: 191 207.
Ko nno la, T.,Scapolo, F.,Desruelle, P. and Mu, R. 2011)‘ Foresight tackling societal challenges:
Nelson, R. 2010)‘ Extending foresight: The case for and nature of foresight 2. 0',Futures, 42: 282 94.
Nonaka, I. 1994)‘ A dynamic theory of organizational knowleedg creation',Organization science, 5: 14 37. OECD. 2008) OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030.
Salo, A.,Brummer, V. and Ko nno la, T. 2009)‘ Axes of balance in foresight:
Schoen, A.,Ko nno la, T.,Warnke, P.,Barre',R. and Kuhlmann, S. 2011)‘ Tailoring foresight to field specificities',Futures, 43: 232 42.
Using horizon scanning in an evidence-based policy context',Foresight, 8: 3 12. SEC (2010) 1161 Final.
foresight; future markets; grand challenges; global challenges; megatrends; societal demand. 1. Introduction: The idea The Lund Declaration (Lund Declaration 2009) formulated a request that European research should focus on the grand challenges of our time, moving beyond current rigid thematic approaches.
Future radar 2030 (Zukunftsradar 2030)',International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy, forthcoming special issue. Lund Declaration.
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