and future-oriented‘intelligence'),'the organisation of dialogic spaces that are hijacked not solely'by special interests
Rather, it is looking to identify new areas in which to invest much of the spending increases with a view to developing future‘competence niches'.
while a final section draws some summary conclusions and highlights lessons for future foresight practice. 2. STI Policy in Luxembourg Before the 1980s,
but will also steer them to conduct more leading-edge research in topic areas that are likely to be important for Luxembourg's future socioeconnomi development.
better informed through the involvement of a wider set of actors taking into account longer-term futures.
'since future investments in research infrastructures or future changes in policies/regulations, for example, can make a significant difference to a country's ability to exploit a particular S&t thematic area.
assessment of domains Future trends Luxembourg context Research priorities candidates Conclusion & recommendations Phase 2: Setting Context/Identifying Priorities Data collection Bibliometrics Interviews International research trends Evaluation of FNR programmes Mapping of Lux.
on the understanding that it would provide a more participative (involving knowledge users as well as producers) and future-oriented (visionary) approach to identifying topic areas suitable for new FNR programmes.
which presented the first opportunity that participants in the exercise had to discuss the future of the research system together.
and populate future FNR programmes. Accordingly, the online survey and subsequent workshops invited participants to nominate new research axes as well.
On top of this, the workshops were often the first opportunity that people had to discuss the future of the research system together
Thinking for the future today. Luxembourg: Fonds National de la Recherche. Georghiou, L, . and M. Keenan. 2006.
as well as a perspective on future challennge and key areas for action that had been developed in the context of a participatory process.
Thus, a shared understanding of problems, goals and development options can be expected to emerge among those actors that have an important role to play in shaping the future.
In other words, the future is being shaped by aligning expectations and thus‘creating'a self-fulfilling prophecy.
3) Policy facilitating by building a common awareness of current dynamics and future developmment as well as new networks and visions among stakeholders,
(knowledge network) Intermediate Articulation of joint visions of the future, establishing longer-term perspectives Ultimate Integrating new able actors in the community that is shaping an area of concern Counselling Immediate Making hidden agendas
and analyses to underpin the development of an integrated, future-oriented urban research and innovation policy.
it is captured not fully by The english translation‘Vienna Looks to the Future knowledge means change'.
These four crosscutting topics were regarded also as crucial for the future, but there were less clearly defined political responsibilities in place for dealing with them.
therti process‘Wien denkt Zukunft'identified five key fields for action on which the City of Vienna will concentrate its future RTI policy (see Figure 2):(1) Human resources
Ashared understanding of the future challengeswas created, but it remains to be seen whether the interactions will be sustainable
and other research and innovation actors is one of the issues on the future agenda, including the dialogue with the public.
The nature of the results is probably not forward-looking and innovative enough to really influence the future agendas of individual organisattions
As part of the process a jointly developed view of the main future objectives, challenges and key areas of action was agreed upon, combining elements of a joint vision.
It is one of the intentions for the future to reinforce this dialogue, though. Overall, the need to achieve consensus on immediate policy actions among the key local policy actors implied that several of the more controversial issues,
Paper presented at the 40th Anniversary Conference of SPRU,‘The Future of Science, Technology and Innovation policy:
the project leadership resolved issues of stakeholder interests and futures literacy before they received their contributions.
stakeholder participation Introduction Foresight is among the most widespread and accepted forms of organised future-oriented activities today. 1 As a widely applied method for dialogical future thinking,
transport or local government, acknowledge the increasing demand for democratic dialogue about the future with affected parties and interest groups.
There is an increasingly participatory dialogue about the future between organisattion and various social groups such as knowledge workers (including experts), stakeholders and users of public services.
and the idea of shaping the future by influencing public policy and strategic decisions. 3 In their seminal paper on‘Inclusive foresight'Loveridge and Street (2005) argue that the credibiilit of foresight is dependent on extending participation to social stakeholders, especially those not normally seeking participation themselves.
What results can we expect from their participation in a visioning project in terms of knowledge, perspective or future literacy?
when the goal is to create a shared and desired picture of the future, as is often the case in municipal visioning projects.
'The World Future Society, an international organisation propagating foresight, describes visioning as‘the process of creating a series of images
or visions of the future that are real and compelling enough to motivate and guide people toward focusing their efforts on achieving certain goals'(Cornish 2004,300).
Visions as desired images of the future can be the result of a range of different foresight processes;
and exploring the future in different scenarios (Godet 2001). In the literature on municipal planning, visioning is regarded as a separate method,
as a more direct process of establishing a desired vision of a communal future not necessarily based on different future scenarios. 5 This latter approach is politically crucial for public organisations trying to develop policy and long-term thinking.
in exploring different possible futures and understanding future risks. Ling (2002,127, n9) writes that‘All policy makers are expected to think about the risks associated with a policy
Visioning here has the clear advantage of concentrating on creating a shared and desired picture of the future from the very beginning of the process.
which ideas of the future should be labelled as‘desired 'and how the resulting visions should be used in the planning context.
arguing that its practices point to certain ways of framing and rationalising the future (Rappert 1999.
Brown, Rappert, andwebster (2000,4) have pointed out that from an STS point of view foresight practices are not so much about looking into the future,
but looking at the future:‘‘Our purpose is to shift the discussion from looking into the future to looking at how the future as a temporal abstraction is constructed
and managed, by whom and under what circumstances'.'They emphasise that future negotiating processes have to be studied according to how they are performed instead of looking at them as mere problem-solving tools for more prudent strategic decision making. 6 The Sociology of expectations analyses foresight practises as structured around expectations and promises in technology,
science and innovation. 7 Expectations embrace both the possiblle probable and the highly unlikely, and thus address the uncertainty of the future.
Scholars of organisation theories, however, have questioned the direct influence of scientific expectatiion and technological promises on strategic development of organisations (Sanz-Menéndez and Cabello 2000;
In the context of future orientation, reflexivity has evolved from an understanndin of human practice as described by Garfinkel (1967) via a social theory of modernity introduced by among others Giddens (1991) and Beck, Bonss,
and Lau (2003,2) refer to‘reflexive social institutions'as central agents charged with the responsibility to make‘reasonable decisions about the future...
however, is given to the paradoxical aspects of reflexive knowledge in its relation to expectations and the organisation of the future.
'Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 976 S. Jenssen Figure 1. The future picture of Lundal was situated clearly within the possible and desirable.
A similar illustration used during presentations of the project showed several figures without the orientation symbolised by the future picture in front of them.
indicating that without a clear vision of the future long-term planning would only lead to chaos and a waste of time and resources.
and their contributions were considered important for how this future picture should be developed. At the same time, the municipal project leadership clarified early on how their contributions would be handled in the context of municipal planning.
977 the interests of the political representatives, both as contributors to the future pictures and as the ultimate recipients of a vision proposal:
and colleges to structure the future pictures. These future pictures will be discussed and supplied with suggestions from other actors and where the politicians would like to be represented before the head of administration writes a proposal for visions and goals
which will be discussed in the community council. 12 With those clear definitions regarding process and result already in place, one might expect the participation of the young people to be relatively open and inclusive.
It arises when social stakeholders are made participants in a foresight process aiming at producing one desired vision of the future.
and giving priority to their ideas about Lundal's future was expressed by the community council in September 2005:‘
‘The young people are the future; therefore they should be involved in discussing it'.'Another argument used during the meeting was that the young people of today would spend most of their lives in Lundal.
Defining young people as embodying the future made them important stakeholders in the further development of an already wealthy community.
and aggression'associated with the strongest driving forces in future decision making. They were assumed to have no capitalist aspirations.
which the municipality can analyse later. 13 The image of young people as being free from capitalist motives was coupled with a clear request to leave out ideas about physical future projects.
Rainer Ehrt used by the vision project leader to underline the lack of capitalist interests in young people's ideas about the future.
and nonrefleective essentially mirroring their hopes, beliefs and concerns about the future. Therefore their ideas would have to be developed into short stories,
These future pictures were to be written using expected trends in municipal developmmen coupled with the young people's ideas.
thus be the initial creative input to the future pictures which would lead to a desired vision of Lundal.
979 Figure 3. The design of the municipal vision project according to the project group, February 2006. schools systematically and created three future pictures,
These future pictures were presented then in a workshop with communal and cultural organisations to discuss which of these were most desirable.
Some grown-up participants criticised the future pictures for being too rosy and promising. They criticised the absence of reflexive and critical inquiry into these future visions
Therefore we rather call it future pictures, or scenario seeds, which could be developed further if one wishes to do so. 17 Although the future ideas were presented as being created entirely by the young,
Instead, the politicians suggested that the future pictures should be used by the young people's community council (YPCC.
The municipal leadership suggested that the YPCC could use these future pictures as a basis for their own visions, values and goals.
In both respects they can be seen as counterparts to the usually implied preconditions for any participation in a future-oriented activity:
They were described as embodying the future, living their future lives in the community, and possessing no capitalist interests (Table 1). Interestingly,
however, this image construction as authentic stakeholders was not enough to define their role as participants.
Areas Pre-definitions as stakeholders Preconditions for their contributions as participants Cognitive Young people are the future Imagine yourselves as grown-ups in 2020!
Social Living their future lives in Lundal Concentrate on issues of well-being in society! Ask your parents and neighbours!
and scholars have discussed the value of a futures approach in the field of community planning as not necessarily‘in discovering new factual knowledge about sustainable urban developmment
what their own ideas about the future might be, based on the knowledge acquired by asking parents, friends and neighbours. 20 Nevertheless,
when organisations intend to create one desired vision of the future. The case discussed here illustrates Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 982 S. Jenssen that power in such processes is both hierarchical and relational, yet‘not simply a relationship between partners, individual or collective;
Conclusion Foresight belongs to the toolbox for achieving good and reflexive governance23 and thus strengthennin the participatory and future-oriented aspects of governing.
it cannot be too far away from the municipality's idea of the future. Otherwise they cannot share it.
Her main interests are negotiations of economic and social value in future orientation, reflexivity and stakeholder participation as well as collective scenario writing,
2008,12) foresight differs from other forms of future orientation only in two respects: It is not only forecasting (let alone prediction),
'and it is not‘Ivory tower'future studies, in which an expert academic‘produces its vision of the future or of alternative futures'.
'Apart from that, many methods, also forecasting methods can be included. Foresight practitioner and theorist Ron Johnston (2008,18) asserts:‘
what we wish the future to be. Visioning, however, emphasises positive values, on the assumption that images of a desired future can direct individuals'present behaviours,
As with other future methods, the perspective on visioning is dependeen on the context in
) 6. Slaughter (2004,92 4) sees the development of Critical Future Studies (CFS) following the traditions of STS in‘challenging the inevitability
'He describes CFS as belonging to the layer of critical and epistemological futures work that goes furthest in studying the social construction of reality,
and of the future, by taking into account the role of language and of power. 7. The sociology of expectations is influenced by Science and Technology studies (STS) and Actor-Network-theory (ANT),
Expectational reflexivity delimits our ability to influence the future, simppl because existing rules and constraints are taken for granted as preconditions for future environments (Jenssen,
forthcoming) 9. Community engagement refers to the process by which community benefit organisations and individuals build ongoinng permanent relationships for the purpose of applying a collective vision for the benefit of a community (definition from wikipedia. org).
The notions of active citizenship and community involvement have become increasingly promineen in political discussions and policy practices within planning and future oriented governance (Stukas and Dunlap 2002;
and guidance literature interact with research areas of science and technology studies (STS), especially regarding insights about the relationships between‘given facts and future values'.
‘in a wide range of contexts, present day evidences, proofs, facts or truths are giving way to future-oriented abstractions premised on desire,
It is also responsive to the present and future needs of society. 20. Local newspaper article, 5 april 2006.21.
Exploring the future as social practice. Paper presented at conference on‘Probing the future: developing organizational foresight in the knowledge economy',11 13 july 2002, University of Strathclyde Graduate school of Business, Glasgow, UK.
Borup, M.,N. Brown, K. Konrad, and H. Van Lente, eds. 2006. The sociology of expectations in science and technology.
Organising the present's futures towards an evaluation of foresight, knowledge flows and the coordination of innovation. http://www. iesam. csic. es/proyecto/formwp1. pdf (accessed September 2009).
Contested futures: a sociology of prospective techno-science. Burlington, VT: Ashgate. Burt, G. 2007. Towards a research agenda for environment, learning and foresight.
the exploration of the future. Bethesda, MD: World Future Society. Cuhls, K. 2003. Development and perspectives of foresight in Germany.
Technikfolgenabschätzung 12, no. 2: 20 8. Cuhls, K, . and L. Georghiou. 2004. Evaluating a participative foresight process:
Futures 3: 45 65. Giddens, A. 1991. The contours of high modernity. In Modernity and self-identity:
Creating futures: scenario planning as a strategic management tool. London: Economica. Grin, J.,F. Felix, and B. Bos. 2004.
reflexive futures between paradigm and practice. Futures the journal of policy, planning and futures studies. Johnston, R. 2001.
Foresight refining the process. International Journal of Technology management 21, no. 7/8: 711 25. Johnston, R. 2002.
the art and science of anticipating the future. Newyork: Routledge. Loveridge, D, . and P. Street. 2005.
Rationalising the future? Foresight in science and technology policy co-ordination. Futures 31, no. 6: 527 45.
Rask, M. 2008. Foresight balancing between increasing variety and productive convergence. Technological forecasting and Social Change 75, no. 8: 1157 75.
Expectations and learning as principles for shaping the future. In Contested futures: a sociology of prospective techno-science, ed. N. Brown, B. Rappert,
and A. Webster, 229 49. Burlington, VT: Ashgate. Schwandt, D. R, . and M. Gorman. 2004.
In Managing the future: foresight in the knowledge economy, ed. H. Tsoukas, and J. Shepherd, 77 97.
Futures beyond dystopia: creating social foresight. London: Routledge Farmer. Stoker, G. 1998. Governance as theory:
Futures 35, no. 5: 423 43. Van't Klooster, S, . and M. Van Asselt. 2006.
Futures 38:15 30. Voß, J-P, . and R. Kemp. 2006. Sustainability and reflexive governance. In Reflexive governance for sustainable development, ed. J-P. Voß, D. Bauknecht and R. Kemp, 3 30.
extrapolate to offer a range of future possibilities, and give our interpretation. As with the Model T, standardizing greatly expedites production
for example, once during the electoral period, the Government produces a report on some salient aspects of the future of Finland.
In the Parliament, this report is debated extensively by the Committee of the Future which produces a written response to it;
4 implied that the external expert panels should have full autonomy in their future-oriented deliberations,
support To support for the future-oriented deliberative process units of analysis characterised by key concepts were defined to provide structure to the panel discussions
or a development that could contribute to the realisation of changes with significant implications for future R&i activities.
and (ii) the significance of the factor (i e. how significant was this driving force for future R&i activities?.
and (ii) the future demand for this expertise (i e. how strongly will the generation and of knowledge in this focus area of competence respond to the societal and industrial needs in 2015?).
relations to emerging societal and industrial needs, with illustrations of future possibilities by way of concrete manifestations (such as innovatiions) Often,
Technology and Innovation7 in fields that are important to the future of Finnish society and business and industry.
but not formal links were established (e g. in the sense that the results of the Future Forum would have depended on those of Finnsight.
when making their contributions to panel work. 4. 3. Consensual vs dissensual development of recommendations Consensual development of recommendations can be understood as the creation of jointly characterrise priorities, collaborative networks and future actions,
and coalitions that may reflect rivalling visions or even incompatible perspectives on the future (Könnölä,
Introduction From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is derived a term from a collective description given to the range of technology-oriented forecasting methods and practices by a group of futures researchers and practitioners
many of these methods have far wider application in futures work than in the domain of technology
While this is a powerful undercurrent in the broader discourse of futures work it does not elsewhere form the central focus.
Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures journal homepage: www. elsevier. com/locate/futures 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.001 eventual outputs. Two special editions of journals reflected the continuing methodological interest
but crossed this with an interest in the evaluation of impacts and in the use of FTA in two domains, business and higher education 9, 10.
which individuals who address the future share their knowledge and link, present and discuss information and insights with each other.
The special edition concludes with two contributions that sought to take advantage of the confluence of futures expertise brought about by the conference.
and analysed by future foresight activities. Concluding the edition, in a short essay, Johnston and Cagnin review the main findings from a series of interviews about the status of FTA as an activity with nine personalities attending the FTA conference.
Introduction/Futures 43 (2011) 229 231 230 In Spring 2011 the fourth FTA Conference will take place.
but represents a dynamic section of the futures community. References 1 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis:
review of a decade's futures work, Futures 21 (1989) 447 465.4 H. A. Linstone, Corporate planning, forecasting,
and the long wave, Futures 34 (3 4 april 2002) 317 336.5 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis the 2004 EU-US seminar, Technological forecasting
and renewing theoretical underpinnings of the Futures field: a pressing and long-term challenge, Futures 41 (2009) 67 70.8 I. Miles, From futures to foresight, in:
L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, M. Keenan, I. Miles, R Popper (Eds.),The Handbook of Technology foresight:
future directions in future-oriented technology analysis: future directions, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barre'(Eds.
Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 163 169.12 O. Saritas, C. Cagnin, A. Havas,
Available online 19 november 2010 Introduction/Futures 43 (2011) 229 231 231
Tailoring Foresight to field specificities§Antoine Schoen a,,*Totti Ko nno la b, 1, Philine Warnke c, 2, Re'mi Barre'd, 3, Stefan Kuhlmann e, 4 a Universite
Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures journal homepage: www. elsevier. com/locate/futures 0016-3287/$ see front matter 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
All rights reserved. doi: 10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.002 The first section of this paper presents the background of this new development concerning Foresight methodology and synthesises the need for a proper tailoring of Foresight.
The second section proposes an analytical view of the European research and innovation system and identifies the catalytic role of Foresight in this framework.
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 233 All these results point to the fact that diverse innovation areas need diverse governance tools
deals with the elaborating of the vision of the future of the system, in putting in place its instruments and regulations, its broad objectives and budget;
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 234 with extensive formal and informal consultation of stakeholders including scientists and research organisations.
Priority-setting supports the identification of common future actions and the efficient allocation of resources 28.
Foresight in support to building shared visions of the future reduces uncertainties and helps synchronize the strategies and joint actions of different stakeholders (e g. 39).
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 235 objectives matrix (Table 2). In each cell of the matrix, the Foresights do not have the same actors involved, nor the same perspectives, nor the same objectives.
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 236 For instance, the progressive sliding of the field of biocatalysis away from‘catalysis'within chemistry towards biotechnologies illustrates an actual reconfiguration of a current knowledge area that is combining splitting and merging
The European Technology platform (ETP)‘‘Plants for the Future''is a stakeholder forum for the plant sector,
Two other key elements are contributing to the future of this research field. 1) EU institutions have had a prominent legal role by delaying the introduction of GM crop in Europe.
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 237 and those ingredients traceable to their source. In 2004, the European commission has lifted a 5-year moratorium on genetically modified produce.
‘‘Plants for the Future'',the above-mentioned European Technology platform is an example of coordinating institution for this collaboration.
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 238 5. 1. 3. GMP: towards a Tailored foresight In the field of GM plants research we find a strong growth rate
and goals that was developed with a broad range of stakeholders including consumer and environmental organisations (Plants for the Future 2005).
firstly, exploration of multiple GM futures in the broader context of agricultural system and secondly, localisation and diversification of the GM research agenda.
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 239 5. 2. 3. N&n: towards a Tailored foresight In the realm of nano-related research we see a strong growth rate and at the same time a strong divergence.
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 240 (including in variable geometry schemes. It follows that the Foresight function,
Laat, Scripts for the future: using innovation studies to Design Foresight tools, in: N. Brown, B. Rappert, A. Webster (Eds.
Contested Futures. A Sociology of Prospective Techno-science, Ashgate, Aldershot, 2000.8 O. Da Costa, P. Warnke, C. Cagnin, F. Scapolo, The impact of foresight on policy-making:
the case of the European union, Journal of European Public policy 3 (3)( 1996) 318 338.22 S. Kuhlmann, Future governance of innovation policy in Europe three scenarios, Research policy 30
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 241 43 S. Kuhlmann, ERA-Dynamics Project Strategic Report 2006 2007:
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 242
The role of scanning in open intelligence systems Kermit M. Patton*Scan Program, SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE, Menlo Park, CA 94025, United states Received 13 may 2004;
SRIC-BI 1. The premise Predicting the future is impossible. The inherent unpredictability of technology development and commercialization processes, legal and regulatory developments,
A futures orientation among decision makers is necessary to take advantage of foreknowledge of change. Eric D. Beinhocker and Sarah Kaplan in Mckinsey Quarterly 6 talk of creating bprepared mindsq
or for cultivating a futures orientation in employees and managers. The companies that currently incorporate externalities well usually depend on a leader at the top of the corporation who performs the scanning function on a continual basis,
has an inherent futures orientation, and imports the knowledge that he or she develops into the decision-making process intuitively.
and for nurturing a futures orientation more broadly in an organization. 3. The process The scanning process is necessarily a continuous one.
and mind-set for cultivating a future orientation in any organization. The process also provides a tonic against the entrainment of thinking that discourages innovation and adaptation.
To bdistributeq a future orientation throughout client companies both push and pull distribution mechanisms are necessary.
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