which successful approaches and ideas from the past discourage employees from innovation. Scanning processes can provide quick, occasional doses of chaos to employees and managers.
or innovations in the marketplace depends on reading the early signs from and interactions among all these categories (see Fig. 1). Organizations that focus on their own industries
The process also provides a tonic against the entrainment of thinking that discourages innovation and adaptation.
Building and Sustaining the Sources of Innovation, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, 1995, p. 135.6 Eric D. Beinhocker, Sarah Kaplan, Tired of strategic planning?
Foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy Luke Georghiou a,,*Jennifer Cassingena Harper b a Manchester Institute of Innovation research, MBS, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9pl, UK b Malta Council for Science
and Technology, Villa Bighi, Bighi, Kalkara CSP 12, Malta 1. Introduction The predominant focus of foresight 1 is frequently national research policy and strategy,
or reform innovation policy and strategy, an activity which sometime ago called‘‘wiring up the innovation system''4. In recent years there has been growth in for regional innovation
and economic development (see for example the FOREN Guide 5) with a stronger emphasis on indigenous strengths and tapping local tacit knowledge.
and innovation policy and strategy together and use of foresight for more joined-up policies and defining the appropriate policy mix.
Recent trends in research and innovation policy have opened new opportunities for the application of foresight. The emergence of coordinating instruments such as technology platforms is normally crystallised around a technology roadmap;
Available online 18 november 2010 A b s T R A c T The paper addresses the application of foresight to research and innovation policy and strategy.
Recent trends in research and innovation policy have opened new opportunities for the application of foresight. Systemic and demand-side policies require a shared vision on the part of purchasers and suppliers.
An increasing structural focus for foresight exercises is associated not only with broader R&i system reform but also with an engagement with new-wave innovation policies.
and the use of procurement or regulation to stimulate innovation is dependent upon the formation of a common vision between the supply
new demand-side innovation policies such as the use of innovative public procurement and regulation to pull through innovations requires a shared vision on the part of purchasers and suppliers.
In the corporate world, the rise of open innovation has emphasised the need for firms to work with their collaborators
and shape the future of their innovation environment 6. Firms are increasingly playing a role in defining innovation policy due to the rise of demand side approaches and the convergence of corporate and structural foresight.
In the open innovation systems firms are concerned less with stand-alone type foresight and more about how corporate strategy interfaces with the emerging research and innovation policy scenario.
''and reflects the aims of many exercises to promote networking between actors in research and innovation.
and demand fir technology or innovation. These almost always make reference to market opportunities or societal demand.
Beyond this if we expand the vision to innovation policy the focus is very much upon using foresight methods to achieve alignment of the principal stakeholders around an agenda for the future.
in Section 3 we catalogue the emergence of structural foresight and in Section 4 its growing role as an instrument for aligning actors in innovation.
and to speculate on the future role for foresight in research and innovation policy. 2. The problem with priorities...
and functional priorities referring to characteristics of the science and innovation system. In dealing with priorities it is difficult to separate the output from either the process that generates it or from the process by
FP1 Socioeconomic Improving human potential Innovation/dissemination International cooperation Energy Environment Competitive and sustainable growth Information society Quality of life Fig. 2. Evolution of framework programme priorities
and focused upon reorientation of the national innovation system 18. Structurally oriented foresight most often seems to be invoked at times of change.
Havas and Keenan have noted a tendency in such countries for science systems to be disconnected from innovation
which could restore a functional innovation system. More recent exercises both in the countries already mentioned
and also in Romania and Poland have had a more explicit objective to shape the research and innovation system.
Foresight aligning actors in innovation policy Structural issues are also to the fore in an emerging important application of foresight
its use to align actors around innovation objectives. Simpler definitions of innovation present it as‘‘the successful exploitation of new ideas''.
''4 However, 4 See for example UK Innovation White paper 27. L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 247 success for business at least is defined very clearly in market terms,
so it is not surprising to find that the more direct corporate applications are concerned largely with understanding the drivers of future markets.
Other corporate activities are engaged more directly with the specifics of innovation: Becker reports that a small group of firms (Daimlerchrysler,
The use of foresight approaches to build linkages for innovation represents a focus for foresight activity in innovation.
This argument is particularly strong for innovation in complex public/private systems such as vehicle route information technologies,
and Johnston‘‘wiring up the innovation system''through strengthening connections within it 4. Foresight becomes a systemic innovation policy instrument as defined by Smits
and Kuhlmann 31, serving the function of enhancing the capability of innovation systems for self-organisation and raising the level of analysis for innovation policy to the system level.
Warnke and Heimeriks caution that this alone will not lead towards certain socially desirable areas of innovation
While the rationale for innovation policy remains anchored in the Arrow concepts of market failure for many government economists,
just as likely to impede successful innovation. This highlights the fact that innovation is not simply a sequential progression from the areas of science
and technology that may feature in priorities exercises but rather involves the mastery or areas such as training,
This thinking was also the basis of the‘‘open innovation''concept in that it recognises centrally that innovation is a process of interaction between firms
The type of deficiencies that innovation policy seeks to correct include lack of integration also at the level of the policy framework itself,
which innovations are most likely to emerge. Within the scientific system an inability to configure work around interdisciplinary problems
How then does this relate to trends in innovation policy? An emergent opportunity for the application of foresight is in demand-side innovation policy.
This represents a reorientation of innovation policy which attempts to match the traditional supply-side measures with new demand-side measures.
Supply-side refers here to the provision of firms with resources, technological knowledge and/or the capabilities to innovate.
By contrast demand-side measures seek to use instruments such as public procurement, standards and regulation to pull-through innovations.
which there is potential for innovation and growth and connect L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 248 actors which are important for innovation.
While the direct use of foresight was documented not at the time in that example it is interesting to note that one of the most successful has evolved now into an ERA NET‘‘Wood Wisdom''dealing with the integration of forestry and wood material science and engineering.
Cariola and Rolfo link this to an evolution from hierarchical organisational structures with tangible assets to network knowledge-based organisational forms as a backdrop to the formulation of innovation policy 36.
and standards to stimulate innovation. The application of foresight approaches to these areas has been explored by Blind who focuses on approaches
When it comes to the use of public procurement as an instrument of innovation policy, the basic premise is that the public buyer can specify requirements that cannot be met from off-the-shelf gods
or services and hence that an innovation is required to meet that demand. There is a potential double benefit in that the purchaser receives an innovative solution while the supplier benefits from customer feedback and an assured first purchase 38.
where there are sufficient buyers of the innovation willing to pay a premium or take additional risks
Put simply, a lead market provides a launch platform for innovations which then may evolve to become cheaper
which underpin successful procurement for innovation. Two conditions need to be satisfied:(i) Procurers at the start of the process are advised to prepare the tender procedure properly
there is also a probability that potential suppliers may not be aware of opportunities for innovation and that procurers may not be aware of the full range of potential suppliers.
as Wilkinson et al. put it in a guide to procurement for innovation:‘‘‘‘The emphasis we have placed upon detecting needs at an early stage
which purchaser and supplier can agree on the likely trajectories of innovation. Subsequently, these can be used as a basis for functional specifications that stimulate innovation
and require R&d to achieve them.''''40 The common thread in all of these demand side areas is the development of a common vision
future for foresight in research and innovation policy Rationales for foresight activity have evolved in recent years to feature a range of research
and innovation policy concerns reflecting sometimes coinciding but often conflicting transnational, supranational, national and regional contexts.
In Europe where efforts have focused on increasing the public and private spend on R&d and Innovation, the extent of policy measures,
J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 249 engineering major changes required in EU research and innovation policy in the coming years.
foresight is instrumental in informing the design and implementation of research and innovation policy with three distinctive roles:
and innovation policy offers a robust future for these approaches. For the community which has developed them the challenge is to ensure that their standards of rigour
the practice and its impacts, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 287 307.4 B. R. Martin, R. Johnston, Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system a review of recent
FOREN Guide Foresight for Regional development Network A Practical Guide to Regional foresight, European commission, December 2001.6 H. Chesbrough, The era of open innovation, Sloan Management Review 44 (3)( 2003.
Klusacek, Technology foresight in the Czech republic, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1 2)( 2004) 89 105.10 K. Klusacek, Key technologies for the Czech National research Programme, in:
Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 287 318.21 A. Sokolov, Identification of national S&t priorities areas with respect to the promotion of innovation and economic growth:
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, 2008.27 Department for Innovation, Universities & Skills, UK, Innovation White paper Innovation Nation, CM7345, March 2008.28 I. Rollwagen, J. Hofmann
R. Smits, S. Kuhlmann, The rise of systemic instruments in innovation policy, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1/2)( 2004) 4 32.32 P. Warnke
, G. Heimeriks, Technology foresight as innovation policy instrument learning from science and technology studies, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barre'(Eds.
, L. Georghiou, A. Subira, Creating an innovative Europe, Report of the Independent Expert Group on R&d and Innovation Appointed Following the Hampton Court Summit, January 2006.
methodologies and selected applications, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516.38 J. Edler, L. Georghiou, Public procurement and innovation resurrecting the demand side, Research policy
A Lead Market Initiative for Europe COM (2007) 860,21. 12.2007.40 R. Wilkinson, L. Georghiou, J. Cave, Public Procurement for Research and Innovation Developing Procurement
Practices Favourable to R&d and Innovation, European commission, September 2005, EUR 21793 EN. L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 251
and rationalist technology-focused approaches towards the recognition of broader concerns that encompass the entire innovation system,
in order to clarify (i) different roles for foresight in the innovation system and society and (ii) its respective impacts and implications on policy. 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.§
in order to clarify (i) different roles of foresight in the innovation system and (ii) its respective impacts and implications on policy and societal developments.
and dedicated methods to improve the awareness and understanding of present and future challenges of the innovation system and its parts.
Foresight Canadae Informative Identification of emerging and frontier technology domains addressing subjects such as future fuels, bio-health innovation, geo-strategic systems, animal
Generation of innovation ideas in Finnish Foresight Forumf 20 Informative Identification of future developments in nutrigenomics,(ii) health care and social services and (iii) services for the provision of personal experiences.
Instrumental Identification of innovation ideas and promoting stakeholder networking. Diverse Analysis of diverging views on innovation ideas among stakeholders.
Fixed Robust portfolio modelling, online surveys. Autonomous Stakeholder workshops. Extensive Wide stakeholder participation in online surveys. Exclusive Limited but open stakeholder participation in the workshops.
and needs analysis. Innovation 25 in Japan Informative The final report of‘‘innovation 25''has set out 5 scenarios for future Japan,
Instrumental‘‘Innovation 25''aims to make long-term strategy for Japan. Consensual‘‘Innovation 25''has set 5 scenarios of Japan society in 2025
and it includes‘‘Long Health Society'',Safe and Secure Society'',Society with Multiple Career Path,
The Cabinet Office established the Innovation 25 Strategy Council and the Innovation 25 Special Mission,
Agora and Innovations foresight. 3. 2. Visions foresight (consensual perspectives and informative outcomes) Visions foresight can be characterised as consensual,
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 259 and future challenges of the innovation system and its parts. However, specific short-term actions are expected not necessarily after the projects.
The outcomes of consensual and instrumental technology foresight activities in Asian countries such as Japan, Korea and China have played increasingly important role in the policy-making process for science & technology and innovation.
and the inclusion of diverse and alternative viewpoints that can challenge incumbent and path-dependent approaches hindering especially radical changes in the innovation system.
network with other stakeholders and in general enhanced their innovation capabilities. The foresight projects identified in Asia seemed to be all consensual;
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 262 3. 5. Innovations foresight (diverse perspectives and instrumental outcomes) Innovations foresight can be characterised as instrumental processes with diverse
The driving for diversity of perspectives together with instrumental results are likely to lead to concrete innovation ideas
and partnerships that are watered not down by the search for wide consensus within the innovation system.
The second project identifiedwas a foresightprocess attachedtofinnish Foresight Forum, whichengageddifferent stakeholder groups, encouragedthemtosubmit ideas on prospective innovations,
which are needed both in attempts to enhance the performance of innovation systems: for example, the implementation of S&t policies may call for a sufficient degree of consensus about appropriate policy instruments (e g.,
in innovation policy, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1)( 2004) 4 32.3 T. Ko nno la, G. C. Unruh, J. Carrillo-Hermosilla
in Europe, Futures 36 (10)( 2004) 1063 1075.9 T. Ko nno la, V. Brummer, A. Salo, Diversity in foresight insights from the fostering of innovation ideas
reflections from the Finnish food and drink industry, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1 2)( 2004) 70 88.11 O. Helmer, Looking Forward:
A knowledge-based perspective A. Eerola A i. Miles b a VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Espoo, Finland b Manchester Institute of Innovation research, Manchester united Kingdom 1
. Introduction Future oriented technology analysis (FTA) is an umbrella term for a broad set of activities that facilitate decision-making and coordinated action, especially in science, technology and innovation policy-making.
In the last decade, FTA ACTIVITIES and in particular national and Regional foresight programmes have often been oriented to supporting the functioning and development of innovation systems.
because the innovation system is constituted by numerous social practices, networks, institutions, and stakeholders. The latter, for instance, extend well beyond the‘‘usual suspects''of R&d-performing firms and public bodies,
Available online 19 november 2010 A b s T R A c T Future oriented technology analysis (FTA) applied to innovation policy and practice often goes well beyond the narrow domain of technology forecasting.
It is oriented to supporting the functioning and development of innovation systems, and involves mutual learning processes, involving stakeholders and experts of many kinds.
''Once we go beyond extrapolating specific trends or devising imaginative scenarios based on historical analogy or generalisation from supposed vanguards, towards thinking about innovation systems more generally,
In fact, a spiral of several successive cycles is needed usually for innovation and FTA PROCESSES moving between so-called tacit and explicit knowledge.
three cycles on a highway, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 2 (1)( 2005) 1 34.14 T. Ko nno la, T. Ahlqvist, A. Eerola, S
. Jorgensen, Technology foresight in the nordic countries, A Report to the Nordic Industrial Fund, Oslo, Center for Innovation and Commercial Development, Risoe-R-1362 (EN),
b Manchester Institute of Innovation research, United kingdom 1. Introduction The paper addresses Future-oriented technology analyses (FTA) in the context of the issues that ought to be considered for its application to support the quest for new forms of governance embracing governments, wider
The history of governance is concerned mostly with how the public's perception of technological innovation has grown over time.
invention and innovation, and their risks are an important part of the emerging landscape. At this point there is much force to Whitehead's perception that‘Science is concerned with generalities.
User-centred innovation assumes that user participation may help to prevent technological deadends reduce dependency on vendors
in many cases, innovation, such as standards which can be improved continuously through a combination of both research and legislation 24.5.3.
Integrating inside-out and outside-in practices through pioneering value chain innovations and addressing social constraints to competitiveness are powerful tools for creating economic and social value,
society and corporate activity A central assumption behind innovation systems theory is that knowledge is the fundamental resource in the modern economy
Whereas technological innovation originates within firms and is protected, to a great extent, by secrecy and intellectual property, it is clear that novel modes of governance presuppose the transparency
There is no doubt that innovations in international relations and regulations are embedded in globalisation and glocalisation. Similarly, innovations in international agreements on trade, standards of all kinds, intellectual property rights, environmental matters, health and safety and human rights are involved all, often interactively,
in the emergence of new forms of governance as globalisation and glocalisation develop. The‘joker in the pack'is international conflict
On the same theme The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2008 opened with calls from the Co-Chairs to exercise‘‘The Power of Collaborative Innovation''to meet the top challenges of economic instability, climate change and equitable growth.
The conditions for democratic governance of technology and innovation need to be acknowledged and discussed. Rather than just opening dialogue between science and society solely in terms of environmental or health impacts, there is a need to tackle broader social concerns such as ethical and cultural values, power relations,
Any new mantra for FTA needs to recognise the obsolescence of the conventional mantra of invention and innovation as primary supports to‘growth'economics.
In contrast innovation is the widespread use of an artefact, a social process in the widest sense,
while also doing good is that markets don't really work that way, Stanford Social Innovation Review (2005).
*Jack E. Smith b a Manchester Institute of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, M13 9pl Manchester, UK b Federal Foresight & Innovation strategy, Defence
In its Science and Innovation Investment Framework 2004 2014, the UK Government committed to establishing a Centre of Excellence in Horizon scanning
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 293 Potential trends Possible new trends grow from innovations, projects,
Trends are those change factors that arise from broadly generalizable change and innovation. They are experienced by everyone
innovations and business-institutional strategies 6. A critical concept associated with being a driver is the level of uncertainty.
and similar innovations create powerful forces that change the business and social environments and personal information practices;
and products and services innovation are familiar, when discontinuities occur in society and government, the changes tend to be more significant
and signs usually associated with early developments in technologies, societal innovations, conflicts, origins of conflicts, etc. that while not easily verifiable from a present day perspective.
but not confirmed changes that may later become more significant indicators of critical forces for development, threats, business and technical innovation.
life prolongation Technological innovation to create inexpensive self-diagnostic devices Development of a global e-science community The new human:
Energy 17 Rising cost and crises in oil production Bio-fuel generation Spread of nuclear energy production toward developing countries Lack of energy sources Innovation for new energy sources
familiar bases for economic value, international conflict and innovations may be shifting resulting in loss of control by the old guard actors;
6 J. Smith, Presentation at the Centre for Innovation studies, Thecis Breakfast Edmonton Alberta, January 13th, 2009.7 J. Petersen, Out of the blue How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises, Madison Books, 2000.8
*Cristiano Cagnin b a Australian Centre for Innovation, Australia b European commission, DG Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Spain‘‘Cassandra was a daughter of Hecuba
Practical implications FTA can contribute not only to the steering of diverse innovation systems, but also to their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to grand challenges.
The presentations comprised themes surrounding creative futures, energy, governance, health, horizon scanning, innovation and sustainability, law, mobility, nanotechnology, and others.
The scale and direction of innovation is determined by a mix of factors, many specific to a national domain though increasingly less so,
Innovation is both a source of and response to disruptive transformations if broadly conceived in technological, social, organizational and institutional terms.
FTA can contribute not only to the steering of innovation systems, but also to their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to grand challenges.
and the analysis of innovation and research policy with a particular focus on the civil security sector.
He is interested also in the topic of framework conditions of innovation such as public procurement of innovation or standardization.
Before joining Technopolis, Thomas worked at the Manchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR) and in management consulting (Roland Berger Strategy Consultants and NFO Infratest.
where six phases are used in a participatory bottom-up social innovation process. Jungk emphasises that ordinary citizens should be invited to participate in futures workshops to elaborate issues that affect their lives.
industrial ecology Search for innovations to boost economic growth and improve the state of the environment VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 311 numbers can also easily be considered as neutral
2. innovations, courage and pioneering; and 3. economy, employment, entrepreneurship and wellbeing. The Committee also paid attention in its statement to the fact that the government foresight report chose as its only starting point the success of the Copenhagen Climate Agreement.
The case of nanotubes Rutger O. van Merkerk T, Harro van Lente 1 Department of Innovation studies, Utrecht University, P o box 80125,3508 TC, Utrecht, The netherlands
In the near future, these innovations will allow NRAMK to be one of the first mass manufactured nanotechnology products.
we note that the emerging character of nanotechnology provides research opportunities for innovation and technology studies.
Economy, Pinter, London, 1984, pp. 78 101.4 J. M. Utterback, Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, 1994.16 For example, one of the components
Rutger van Merkerk is currently a Phd student (Copernicus Institute for Sustainability and Innovation, University of Utrecht,
Harro van Lente is currently assistant professor at the Copernicus Institute for Sustainability and Innovation University of Utrecht, The netherlands.
Since then he has been involved in a wide range of studies in the area of technology, innovation and society.
and was involved in various consultancy projects on innovation and organisation. His current research focuses on prospective studies of nanotechnology.
The successive emergence of new technological innovations seems to conjure up environmental threats and tends to relax a society
B Promote an educational system that transmits the values of sustainability, innovation, social commitment and solidarity.
B Modify mobility patterns by incorporating technological and energy innovations. B Modernize public administration so that it can implement an advanced, transparent governance model.
This has been mainly due to the increasing importance of technological and organisational innovation; the development of service economies;
i e. at early stages of their development when the direction of the innovation process already can be influenced
the role of governments or politics as important players in the innovation process has changed. First there is a significant shift away from a direct governmental participation in the innovation process towards a concentration of national governments on the shaping of framework conditions for innovation.
This is due to many reasons: Globalisation has altered the roles and influence of national policies and industries, political paradigms have changed, EU legislation and international competition leave less room for direct governmental activities in many technological fields.
i e. at early stages of their development when the direction of the innovation process already can be influenced.
But most questions about the relevant consequences and options to influence it arise in the later phases of the innovation process, from the diffusion to the market, the use of technology and its disposal.
These potential innovations offer numerous benefits. There are great expectations among policymakers, scientists and industry representatives that nanotechnology may
As so-called, denabling technologies',they are technological prerequisites for numerous innovations in many technological fields from comparatively simple technologies for every day use (like cosmetics or pigments in paints),
or-related innovations are claimed for nanotechnology. However, some of the ideas for products or visions for applications raise also considerable questions with respect to their nontechnical implications.
or other groups participating in the innovation process, a discussion of these consequences in the context of nanotechnology often refused.
SME are important drivers of some European industrial sectors and potential users of nanomaterials-based innovations.
and applications and supporting more reliable judgements on the realism of or hurdles for innovations discussed.
shaping and defining research and innovation agendas (2011 FTA Conference Scientific Committee. 1 An even more basic question raised during the conference relates to
and the issues it brings to prominence need to catalyse major innovations in organisations and governance',
With a similar line of thought in his keynote at the 2011 FTA Conference, Ollila (2011) from Nokia focused on the future challenges for innovation policy as resulting in particcula from global economic developments.
He argued that innovation policies should be better fine tuned to support the emergence of innovation networks and innovation ecosystems.
He saw innovation policies as horizontal policies that cover the whole innovation system by shaping a favourable innovation environment.
and for innovation policy based on a networking approach. The papers presented in this special issue address the above issues by exploring from different angles the growing demand for forward-looking intelligence in times of crisis and uncertainty,
'and showing how innovation leads to unpredictability that cannot be removed by more accurate data or incremental improvements in existing predictive models.
Cagnin and Loveridge focus on innovation networks by suggesting a dynamic framework of continual learniin that enables a business to develop a capacity to anticipate
How to navigate in a landscape of interrelated innovation systems? Ahlqvist, Halonen, Eerola, Kivisaari, Kohl, Koivisto, Myllyoja and Wessberg look at the role of research and technology organisations (RTOS),
The authors explore how the 10-step‘Forecasting Innovation Pathways'analytical approach can be systematised through the use of Tech Mining.
They combine qualitative and quantitative tools in aiming to identify potential innovation pathways. The approach proposed is applied to the development of Dye-Sensitized Solar cells (DSSCS),
Denning (2005) on the use of narrative tools in combination with strategic analysis for addressing transformational innovation.
Transformational innovation: A journey by narrative. Strategy & Leadership 33, no. 3: 11 6. Edsall, R,
The innovation policy challenge, keynote speech. Fourth international Seville conference on futureorieente technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville. http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/documents/download/PRESENTATIONS/Keynotes/JO
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