ICT, management and globalization are common factors that would be critical to promote innovations in these areas.
Keywords Foresight, Combination, Delphi method, Scenario, Innovation, Sustainable development, Forward planning Paper type Case study 1. Introduction The situation surrounding science and technology has undergone a radical change in recent years.
Expectation for innovation through scientific and technological development is building up in this situation, and many countries have shown a clear tendency to place special focus on science and technology policy in their innovation strategies.
Science and technology policy are discussed often including the creation of values in society, social or economic conditions for their promotion,
In the USA,‘‘A Strategy for American Innovation: Driving towards Sustainable growth and Quality Jobs''was formulated in 2009 (Executive Office of the President, 2009),
which was revised as‘‘A Strategy for American Innovation: Securing our Economic growth and Prosperity''in 2011 (National Economic Council, 2011.
The European commission released‘‘Innovation Union''as a flagship initiative in Europe 2020 (European commission, 2010. In Japan, the status of science and technology policy in the national grand strategy has changed significantly as its GDP growth rate stagnates in the face of intensified international competition and a falling birth rate and aging population.
In conjunction with this principle, a call for innovation through scientific and technological development was mentioned first clearly in the Third Basic Plan.
It is expected that converging technologies will trigger innovation and lead to the solution of social issues in the future.
Currently activities aim to discuss innovations that have the potential to change society for the better.
which are expected to be the main players for addressing global or national challenges through innovation in the future.
Based on the discussion, four global or national challenges were set as the goals of science, technology and innovation.
2. sustainable growth through green innovation; 3. successful model for healthy-aging society; and 4. secure life. 2. 2 Delphi Delphi is characterized by repeated questions for the collective convergence of opinions,
and technology that achieve innovation success to resolve challenges in the future. However, investigative studies that are implemented in parallel do not give a comprehensive and panoramic view.
and technology for realizing innovation for solutions to the challenges. The procedure is shown in Figure 2. 4. Expected innovation 4. 1 Relations between Delphi topics and scenarios On average,
one scenario has 4 percent of Delphi topics with scores greater than 100, and 75 percent of them with scores less than 30.
indicating their status as common infrastructure. 4. 3 Areas where innovation is expected in the future The Delphi survey identified 36 key areas out of all 94 areas set by the panels,
and environment on the left side can be regarded as indicating the first group of expected innovation toward resolving the challenges in the future society
of social innovation and network building 11-E Management of humans, creation, management, and transfer of knowledge, education,
The collaboration of these base technologies including ICT with mainstream innovation will be discussed further in the next section. 5. Common factors for future innovation As stated in section 3,
and technology that have the potential to make innovation happen and contribute to the solution of four challenges directly or indirectly.
1. green-related innovation; and 2. life-related innovation. This section discusses how base technologies in common are expected to become engaged in the two potentialities. 5. 1 Examination from positions of key areas As shown in Table I,
14 key areas are categorized as‘‘Others, ''meaning areas that are related not green or life-related areas.
service management and social innovation are positioned near life-related areas, which indicates that innovative progress will be made in health and medical care through collaboration with ICT and management technology.
which shows green innovation has a close relation to the international standpoint. Areas related to space and ocean sciences and materials science are positioned near the center and show no direct relation to the two potentialities of innovation:
this indicates that these areas will play a role as a general-purpose technology or as a source of cutting-edge technology providing ground-level support to the concrete contributions of other technologies.
and technology is indispensable for discussing the desired future. 6. Conclusion To bring about innovation in society through the effective use of the fruits of science
Through this process, many findings come into view as to what should have priority for promoting innovation.
management and globalization, should be emphasized in connection with the promotion of innovation in these two areas.
A Strategy for Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth, European commission, Brussels. Executive Office of the President (2009), A Strategy for American Innovation:
National Economic Council (2011), Strategy for American Innovation: Securing our Economic growth and Prosperity, National Economic Council, Council of economic advisors, Office of Science and Technology policy, WASHINGTON DC.
VA. National science Foundation (2005),‘Managing nano-bio-info-cogno innovations: converging technology society'',National science Foundation, Arlington, VA. Popper, R. 2008),‘How are selected foresight methods?''
Keywords Foresight, Strategic dialogue, Research policy, Stakeholder alignment, Scenario planning, Germany, Innovation, Strategic planning, Governance, Management Paper type Case study 1. The challenge of transferring foresight results Through research policy,
in securing employment and in reaching and setting benchmarks of innovation capability, effective alignment of stakeholders can be regarded as one of the prerequisites for national wealth and well-being.
and impact of these activities on the innovation system strategic dialogues are used, both during the process of creating consensus views of future developments and during their translation into research policy and the creation of research infrastructure.
the definition of general conditions to push invention and innovation, the identification of potential constraints that might stem from economical, technological or societal implications, an assessment of the relevance for basic education and advanced training as well as the consideration of ethical and legal aspects.
5. 3 Strategic dialogue to develop a model for public private partnerships A third example of a successful strategic dialogue was the definition of a novel type of innovation cluster across academia and industry implemented as public private partnerships.
The resulting outline of a possible new type of innovation cluster has proved to be stable throughout further discussions in various policymaking contexts
Meister, H. and Oldenburg, F. 2008),‘Foresight und Innovation: Zukunfts denken Heute gestalten'',Beteiligung ein Programm fu r Wirtschaft, Politik und Gesellschaft, Physica Verlag, Heidelberg, pp. 119-38.
Foresight and‘‘grand challenges''within research and innovation policies Martin Rhisiart Abstract Purpose The paper seeks to discuss how foresight is used to understand the implications of global changes for research and innovation policies.
It aims to present a recent Irish case study that identified grand challenges in the national context, with their implications for research and innovation.
innovation and grand challenges. Findings The emergence of grand challenges within research and innovation policy discourse in Europe has refreshed key questions for foresight theory and practice.
Although many grand challenges have relatively clear implications for research and innovation (investment), others do not.
A bottom-up, participatory process produced a broader set of grand challenges. Research limitations/implications The concept of grand challenges is still relatively new.
Practical implications Not all research and innovation priorities are linked to grand challenges. National policies need to take account of grand challenges
whilst continuing to support other research and innovation needs. Originality/value The paper introduces a novel approach for identifying grand challenges and responses within the research and innovation system through a bottom-up process.
Keywords Foresight Grand challenges, Research and innovation policy, Research prioritization, Forward planning, Innovation, Ireland Paper type Case study 1. Introduction Foresight methods have been used widely around the world to enable the research
and innovation system to assess the implications of new technologies and wider socioeconomic changes (Martin and Johnston, 1999;
Rappert, 1999; Saritas et al. 2007; Georghiou and Cassingena-Harper, 2011. Such approaches are built often into prioritisation exercises,
and remains a key objective of investment in research and innovation programmes. However, another factor has emerged in the European context,
which has had an influence on the research and innovation agenda: the concept of‘‘grand challenges''or‘‘grand societal challenges''.
However, with the increasing acceptance of grand challenges, Foresight is expected to make a contribution to orienting innovation towards broader issues (Georghiou et al.
This article presents some recent experience of how national research and innovation systems use futures to construct responses (such as new investment priorities) to emerging global challenges and opportunities.
and innovation policy agenda-setting, conducted in Ireland. It describes the methodological approach taken by the project in identifying research implications of global drivers and trends,
was the focus on translating future-oriented knowledge (from drivers and trends) into grand challenges for the national research and innovation system.
Several issues are addressed that are relevant for those interested in foresight, research and innovation, and grand challenges.
how research and innovation systems respond to grand challenges, and re-conceiving or reframing questions for the research and innovation system.
The method used in the case study is to examine outputs from the foresight project conducted on global drivers and trends and their (national) implications for research and enterprise.
some conclusions and implications for research and practice are offered particularly on how foresight addresses the‘‘challenge of grand challenges''in research and innovation systems.
and research and innovation policies. 2. Grand challenges the emergence of a new frame of reference In the public funding of research, there are often tensions between two basic principles:
In the European union as in many other parts of the world research, technology and innovation policies and programmes have adopted, to a large extent,
Technological development and Innovation (RTDI) programmes hitherto has focused on economic competitiveness in an increasingly globalised business environment.
Specifically, the issue identified was the effective marshalling of research, technological and innovation funds to support broad goals for Europe.
technological and innovation knowledge geared towards large challenges. It calls on European institutions and Member States to focus European research on the major challenges facing our world.
A further milestone in the explicit recognition of directing research and innovation resources towards grand challenges came with the publication of a report on the European Technology platforms by DG Research (European commission DG Research, 2010.
and support in RTDI towards addressing grand challenges in areas such as energy, resources, demographic change, health and security. 3. Irish foresight project on global drivers and their implications for research and innovation:
The Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Innovation asked‘‘that the group focus on areas that will yield the best return for taxpayers'investment in research and ultimately
mobility and higher education Learning as a lifelong behaviour Vocational skills gaps Technological development Converging technologies The increasing pace of technological change Technology platforms Open innovation models Death of intellectual property?
growth Energy security Renewable energy Renewable energy Peak oil Global trade falters Converging technologies Increasing pace of change Increasing pace of change Open innovation
distribution and competitiveness Innovation and companies Ireland has a relatively modest‘‘home''market and is therefore reliant to a significant extent on its enterprise base
Gain a broader understanding of creativity and innovation and their role in the application of research within enterprises and more broadly across society Establish better ways of judging
it emerged as a significant(‘‘grand'challenge for the country's research and innovation system. The participants that were involved in the consultative events recognised the significance of certain drivers (around
In terms of engineering science and technology, it was a relatively simple process to identify possible responses from the research and innovation systems at a national level, through addressing known gaps in capacity and building on emerging areas of strength.
In some cases, the diagnosis of the grand challenge in The irish context was more straightforward than the construction of a set of possible responses from the research and innovation system.
Although this may not appear a‘‘conventional''research and innovation problem, it emerged as a grand challenge reflecting key uncertainties of senior decision-makers operating in a small state as it adapted to changing external conditions in economics and governance.
For these challenges, it was difficult to conceive of strategic responses based on research and innovation. Even where there is a consensus on grand challenges,
and innovation system to take stock of the way in which they develop and implement their activities.
and innovation communities to consider the impacts of changes in conditions, resources and other factors over different time horizons.
and innovation systems can address grand challenges can be done through bottom-up approaches. Although it was designed not originally in this way
For research and innovation policy, the implications of grand challenges may be quite different in smaller country contexts particularly those that are on the periphery of Europe.
The challenges may be easier to determine than the research and innovation responses: although problems or challenges can be contested,
if any, might be an appropriate response in terms of the research and innovation system. The marginalisation of Ireland (as a small country) within multilateral frameworks was identified as a challenge by participants in the exercise.
This is not a conventional innovation problem yet was regarded still as a national challenge in its broadest sense.
It is important not to impose excessive constraints on innovation policies that do not overtly fulfil societal needs in the conveyed by debates on grand challenges.
and sustain a successful innovation system. In the context of grand challenges, there is an important, ongoing role for FTA in critically evaluating continued support for the allocation of resources within the research and innovation system,
and the way in which they are organised. Notes 1. See www. se2009. eu/polopoly fs/1. 8460!
menu/standard/file/lund declaration final version 9 july. pdf 2. The author was a member of the team that was appointed to carry out the work on behalf of Forfa's. The team was made of CM International (lead contractor) and the Centre for Research in Futures and Innovation
foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy'',Futures, Vol. 43 No. 3, pp. 243-51.
Martin, B. R. and Johnston, R. 1999),‘Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system. Experiences in Britain, Australia and New zealand'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 60 No. 1, pp. 37-54.
About the author Martin Rhisiart is Director of the Centre for Research in Futures and Innovation at the University of Glamorgan.
Keywords Priority-setting, Russia, Natural resources, Long term planning, Foresight project planning, Innovation, Technology led strategy, Sciences Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction In recent years
technology and innovation (S&t&i) priorities have become an integral part of government policy making in almost all developed countries,
1995), Norway (Nordic Innovation Centre, 2007), Canada (National research council Canada, 2005) and other developed countries have accumulated significant experience with such projects.
is by radically increasing innovation activities in the natural resources sector. However, accomplishing this is not an easy task due to a number of reasons, the most important
of which include the low level of innovation activities of Russian companies, an underdeveloped innovation infrastructure, inefficient legislation, etc.
Therefore, identifying S&t and innovation priorities for the natural resources sector has become an extremely important issue
and a description of specific innovation projects was required for policy decision-making. Therefore for this additional investigation the RF Ministry of Education and Science initiated the second cycle of the National S&t Foresight until 2030.
i e. to prepare recommendations for shaping Russian national S&t and innovation policy in the sphere of natural resources and environmental protection.
Eighty-two topics were formulated for these five thematic areas, in the form of briefly described S&t results, promising technologies or innovation products (e g.‘‘
and possible innovation projects for the most important S&t fields. The National S&t Foresight: 2030 was based on the FS1 results and also on a renewed version of the National S&t priorities and Critical technologies.
An important new methodological aspect was the development of roadmaps, the identification of potential large-scale innovation projects,
Experts also estimated the potential for implementing large-scale innovative projects based on the results achieved and the market prospects for relevant innovation products.
Among the most promising innovation projects selected by experts were: B combined solid minerals extraction and deep processing systems (2010-2015;
Probably the only way to bridge this gap is to identify new innovation priorities for the Russian management system;
the identification of such priorities was the objective of FS3. 3. 3 Innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector (FS3) Innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector for the period until 2025
‘‘Innovation priorities''in the above study were considered to be major activities in the Russian natural resources sector's management system that would contribute to achieving the RF S&t priorities and solving the main problems in the area.
The innovation priorities until 2025 for the development of the Russian natural resources sector was developed on the basis of identification of the most important problems and challenges regarding the natural resources sector's management system and necessary conditions for S&t development.
two main criteria were used for the identification of innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector, i e.:
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 47 As a result of this study, the innovation priorities and corresponding tasks were formulated for each structural component of the natural resources sector.
As an example, below are presented priorities for innovation-based development of the‘‘industrial waste and cumulative ecological damage''sphere:
One of the tasks for the innovation priority‘‘Creation of Mechanisms for Elimination of Cumulative Ecological Damage''was‘‘Development of a legal mechanism of responsibility for cumulative ecological damage,
Figure 2 The overall structure of the study PAGE 48 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 The results of both projects have become an important information source for the follow-up FS3 project devoted to innovation
and demands for the identification in FS3 of innovation priorities (see Table III). So all three projects were interrelated with each other in terms of their structure, criteria and results.
Figure 3 The general scheme of the structure of projects interrelation VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 49 B design of large-scale innovation projects;
B regional priorities for innovation development; and B priorities for international S&t co-operation. However, the real contribution of the Delphi study results to the development of policy documents was mostly indirect
and innovation policy it is necessary to have more detailed and precise information about resource requirements, the evaluation of emerging markets,
promising innovation projects and other information required for policy decision-making. These tasks were solved in the FS2 framework.
and perspective innovation projects for investment. The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends,
The RF Ministry of Education and Science used the lists of the most important innovation
of markets and segments where Russia can improve its position Detailed description of chosen groups The most important innovation projects The most important research projects In particular,
and this is preventing S&t development Innovation priorities for the Russian management system in the natural resources area, which should create conditions for S&t development
and promote solving the key problems identified in the FS2 framework FS3 An identification of innovation priorities for the Russian management system in natural resources until 2030 The innovation priorities
Also, suggestions for amendments to strategic documents of RF Ministries were proposed Update of the list of innovation priorities PAGE 50 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 create an adequate management system for the sector.
Also the RF Geologic Strategy and Water Strategy were developed on the basis of the innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector.
and the large number of players, imply the need to use integrated approaches for identifying S&t and innovation priorities for this sector.
The innovation and S&t priorities for the Russian natural resources sector were identified in the framework of three connected foresight projects.
design of large-scale innovation projects identification of research projects to be funded within federal and sectoral goal-oriented S&t programmes designing sectoral strategies for industries regional priorities for innovation development priorities
The RF Ministry of Education and Science used the lists of the most important innovation
Also the RF Geologic Strategy and Water Strategy were developed on the basis of the innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector Direct (high) VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 51
and the country's international S&t co-operation potential through the development of a national innovation system.
Also, major innovation projects were identified with the promise of high economic and social return. On the basis of this project recommendations for Russian S&t policy which include the most important research
and innovation projects were prepared. The RF Ministry of Education and Science used the lists compiled as a basis for selection of the projects to be funded.
The FS3 course identified the innovation priorities and corresponding tasks for improving the management system the Russian natural resources sector,
which would contribute to its innovation-based development and help to solve major environmental problems. The results of this project were strongly related to policy decision-making,
References European commission (2003),‘Innovation policy: updating the Union's approach in the context of the Lisbon strategy'',COM (2003) 112, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2004a),‘Science and technology, the key to Europe's future guidelines for future European union
S&t for the 21st century'',Foresight Consolidation Report, available at www. nrc-cnrc. gc. ca/Nordic Innovation Centre (2007),‘Foresight in Nordic innovation systems'',Nordic Innovation
Keywords Strategic technology foresight, Competitive technology intelligence, Delphi topic analysis, International patent classification system, Sustainable energy, Innovation, Forward planning Paper type Research paper 1
Japan has utilized the result of the 8th Foresight activity to form the Innovation 25 policy and the result of the 3rd Foresight activity of South korea has resulted in 21 future technology areas.
and in particular to identify innovation potentials and niches within technology trends where Austria might find opportunities to achieve leadership within the next 15 years (Aichholzer, 2001).
NO 1 2013 jforesight jpage 57 intellectual property (IP) system that rewards creativity, stimulates innovation
There is long history in economics of the use of patent data to understand the process of invention and innovation (Griliches, 1990;
Schmoch, U. 2008),‘Concept of a technology classification for country comparisons'',Final Report to the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, Karlsruhe
Tichy, G. 1999),‘The innovation potential and thematic leadership of Austrian industries: an interpretation of the technology Delphi with regard to the old structure/high-performance paradox'',Institute of technology Assessment, Vienna, available at:
Hungary d Manchester Institute of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9pl, UK e National research University, Higher School of economics, Moscow, Russia
as well as research and innovation agendas to support these dialogues and policy discussions. Innovation is both a source of,
and possible key response to, disruptive transformations, if broadly conceived in technological, social, organisational and institutional terms.
The scale and direction of innovation are determined by a mix of factors, many of them national in their nature,
In this context, FTA can contribute not only to the steering of innovation systems, but also to their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to fundamental changes.
Without that competition a major source of methodological innovation, a means of quality assurance, and for control of costs would be lost. 4. Understanding the complex and systemic nature of grand challenges The issues covered by the term‘grand challenges'naturally lend themselves to a global outlook,
foresight as part of the broader set of FTA) on innovation systems and governance structures? To what extent the current decision-makers and other major‘gatekeepers'would be open to launch and finance such exercises,
FTA still needs to develop mechanisms for orchestrated innovation activities and policy action. Systemic action is required for a collective transformation through the coordinated application of scientific/technological,
social and business innovation simultaneously supported by political will. Furthermore, 5 and 13 underline the ongoing need for the greater involvement of stakeholders who can introduce necessary capabilities
and interest in research and innovation to respond to grand challenges. Understanding the difficulties for FTA to dealing with the grand challenges of humanity helps
where FTA needs to demonstrate that there might be opportunities for innovation and new markets in grand challenges.
For instance, 14 give waste-based innovation as an example of such opportunity, which appears to be suitable for aligning scientific/technological
and social innovations to achieve a structural transformation. 6. Papers in this special issue The papers in this special issue of TFSC discuss various methodological aspects of FTA APPROACHES as well as some advances needed in practice to assist us in comprehending transformations.
De Smedt et al. 5 investigate ways in which futures thinking assisted by scenarios can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges and for orienting innovation systems.
and the need for social shaping seem critical to advance FTA practice in light of anticipating disruptive innovations and events. 382 C. Cagnin et al./
and principles as to how to strengthen innovation systems through scenario analysis. In this context, scenarios are seen as a tool for inspiring and orienting innovation systems.
Therefore, scenarios stimulate future-oriented thinking, create a common language and understanding between stakeholders thus supporting a systematic negotiation process,
The underlying claim is that innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems.
Hence, principles on how to orient innovation systems through future scenarios require representation and collaboration as well as the integration of different modes of future thinking
and define research and innovation agendas. In both countries, public policy activities to foster nanotechnology were accompanied by efforts to establish governance structures to coordinate interactions between actors of the innovation system.
The FTA TOOLS used to develop governance frameworks for nanotechnology in these two countries differ along time.
either for future innovative governance or for using nanotechnology for disruptive innovation in order to address grand societal challenges.
Schirrmeister and Warnke 14 contribute towards building foresight capacities for systemic and structural transformations by sharing their experience on a project that explores future innovation patterns.
These contributed in a specific way to opening up new perspectives on the future of innovation and potential structural transformation of innovation processes,
the need for adequate enabling platforms between innovation demand and innovation supply, the need to adopt new innovation formats
The project results also underlined the need for different types of innovation policy instruments to deal with newly emerging innovation patterns rather than just different priorities.
The notion of FTA addressing research and innovation policy through priority-setting and articulation of demand has shifted to the search of breakthrough science
which change is considered in the domain of innovation policy and in investigator-driven research they show the landscape that has formed the demand
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 practice and assist in considering transformations that are going to take us closer to anticipating disruptive innovations and events.
5 P. De Smedt, K. Borch, T. Fuller, Future scenarios to inspire innovation, Technol. Forecast. Soc.
6 M. Weber, A. Havas, D. Schartinger, Exploring the Potential impact of FLA on National Innovation systems.
Keenan, Orienting European innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play, Sci. Public policy 39 (2012) 140 152.10 M. Boden, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman, T. Konnola, Facing the Future:
14 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke, Envisioning structural transformation lessons from a foresight project on the future of innovation, Technol.
and is now a senior advisor of STI (Science, Technology and Innovation policy and strategy at CGEE.
and practice in RTDI (Research, Technology development and Innovation), business strategy and sustainability, environment management, cleaner production and foresight.
and regional editor of the International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy. His academic interests are in economics of innovation theory and practice of innovation policy, and technology foresight.
In 1997 2000 he was the Programme Director of TEP, the Hungarian technology foresight programme. He has contributed to international research projects on STI policies, innovation,
as well as on foresight and prospective analyses, and been a member of several EU expert groups. He has advised national governments and international organisations on the above issues.
Ozcan Saritas (Phd) is a Senior Research fellow at the Manchester Institute of Innovation research (MIOIR formerly PREST;
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