Thus, this visionary process includes many participants and different interests. This paper is structured as follows: in Section 2 we discuss the idea of systemicity and its connections to foresiigh and forward-looking policy design.
it is about contemplating signals in a systemic environment through a systemic process of pro-action, action and reaction.
Foresight is about the formation of‘process benefits, 'about aligning expectations and building a‘self-fulfilling prophecy'.
and iterative process that produces weighed crystallizzations usually in a visual form, of an organization's long-term vision,
) It is supposed that transitions result from a multilayered process of interactions:.Niche innovations build up internal momentum, through learning processes, price/performance improveements and support from powerful groups..
First, IPRM springs from a roadmapping tradition and thus places significant emphasis on the process and systematic form of information.
Thirdly, because IPRM is more of a process methodology than a generic societal frame the number of participants is limited.
There is a critical lower limit to the number of participants to allow the process overall, but there is also an upper limit that is basically the limit of having a manageable process.
However, the process-orientation also creates latitude and makes it adaptable in different contexts. Fourthly, IPRM also combines bottom-up and top-down perspectivves Nonetheless,
in the case of IPRM one could talk about a process perspective. Top-down information might be utilized during the process,
but the topics highligghte are the outcomes of a systematic process. Fifthly IPRM also places significant weight on forming policy conclusions in relation to long-term visions.
However, in contrast to the long-term emphasis in TM, IPRM adopts a multi-temporal perspective that is dependent on the topics under scrutiny (e g. the long-term in information
and communiccatio technologies (ICT) is very different from the long-term of transport or energy infrastructure),
T. Ahlqvist et al. of ICT in society or specific applications in a defined sector) and the nature of the process and its participants. 3. 2 Policy rationales of IPRM A key aspect of IPRM is that it links the results
Hybridization allows the roadmapping process to escape process lock ins that can result from too rigid a process.
The development of the IPRM method, still an ongoing process, is an outcome of several projects realized at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland.
The knowledge required for building the roadmaps was gathered in a systematic process that combined literature scanning expert interviiew and an assessment workshop.
It was completed as a strategic process at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland in 2010, with two aims:
and a technology roadmap (see Fig. 5). The roadmapping process was completed in three working phases. Phase I was a landscaping phase that was realized in three steps.
The second step was a discussion workshop on the core themes of the process. The third step was the selecctio of the relevant themes for the actual roadmapping process.
Phase II was the roadmapping. First, a specific roadmapping core group was set up. Secondly, an expert workshop with 16 technology experts was organized.
or by the amount of new linkages among the stakeholders formed during the process. Secondly, as we have discussed in this paper,
These societal elements can also be grasped in a systematic roadmapping process. Acknowledgements Toni Ahlqvist wishes to thank the Academy of Finland (grant SA 132628) for the financial support that enabled the writing of this paper.
Insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process',Technology analysis and Strategic management, 20: 369 87. Innovation policy roadmapping. 189 Eerola, A. and Loikkanen, T. 2009) Governance and Research of Nordic Energy system Transition-Summary Report of the Gorenest Project, VTT Research Notes 2505.
Assessing rationale, process and impact',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 73: 761 77. Heiskanen, E.,Kivisaari, S.,Lovio, R. and Mickwitz, P. 2009)‘ Designed to travel?
Overall process and detailed modules',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 72: 567 83. Phaal, R. and Muller, G. 2009)‘ An architectural framework for roadmapping:
Stakeholder engagement and networking is a core element of the process, from the design of the Urban Europe process and the further development of the SRF to the participation in research projects and in implementatiio measures.
The participation initiatives embedded in the process include the establishment of an Urban Europe forum (UEF) 31
T. Ko nno la and K. Haegeman including different parts of the transnational research landscape in the participatory process,
Programming Initiative Alignment of research systems Bottom up consultation process networrkin researchers and industrial leaders across borders.
and organisational change that need to be converted into research programmes Alignment of existing national programmes and research strategies in a variable geometry Vertical co-ordination Bottom up consultation process
Here, the establishment of stakeholder platforms for long-term stakeholder engagement in the process and knowledge and collaboration platforms for cumulating knowledge
We consider that foresight holds promise for a structured and responsive process that efficiently mobillise stakeholders
and secondly to generate more holistic perspectives on the emerging agenda. 4. 1. 2 Modular and structured process for balanced and diverse stakeholder engagement.
Modularity refers to process design where analogous sub-processes or modules can be enacted relatively independently from the other sub-processes (Ko nno la et al, 2011).
Stakeholder participation was also based on the definition of explicit roles and responsibilities for the different phases of the process. 4. 1. 3 Flexible and responsive management to accommoodat with stakeholder expectations.
In Woodwisdom-Net, some‘slack'in scheduling was built into the process schedule as a risk mitigation measure.
Furthermore, if one regards foresight as a creative process (Salo et al. 2004), then it may be impertinent to fix foresight objectives
Instead of seeking to‘fix'the objecttive and associated process design at the outset those in charge of the foresight process should anticipate,
and redesigning the whole process to better meet the stakeholder expectations and to accommodate new priorities in the plans.
Towards this end, the modular design is helpful by way of including process and result flexibility.
Process flexibility refers to the ability to make methodologgica changes in how certain results are obtained such as:
However, the process flexibility may not alter the format in which the results are expected to be presented, for instance,
it is possible to have both process and result flexibility, thus to make changes in overall design
and speeds up the implementation (see Fig. 4). Achieving the benefits of foresight activities in support of the implementation of other programming functions is related to the appropriate positioning of foresight design and management in the overall programming process.
and innovation systems Figure 3. Process and result flexibility in modular foresight design for transnational research programming. 202.
Guidance for design and process management. Transnatiiona research programming faces difficulties in obtaining impartial and neutral process management support without favouring vested interests.
This risk of partiality can be limited by introducing a foresight approach into the process. Considering the national differences in foresight capabilities and capacities, particcula efforts in organising training35 for possible national coordinators could enhance the overall quality
and participation in transnational research programming, making use of existing initiatives such as the Forlearn Online foresight Guide (European commission 2012) or the UNIDO Technology foresiigh Guide (UNIDO 2012)..
Availability of IT solutions for process implementation. The transnational, efficient and effective engagement of numerous stakeholders may lead to time-consuming and resource-intensive processes.
and novel process designs that can help overcome such challenges. Towards this end, the case studies in Section 3 and numerous other studies36 show evidence of the benefits of applying internet-based soluttion to obtain fast
Despite the promising initiated pilots on JP, there is scarce managerial support on how foresight processes could be applied in JP so that it facilitaate the overall JP process.
which serve as guidelines on how to implement a JP process and which also include a section on forward-looking activities
'9. This platform aims at supporting the process for develoopin national/regional innovation strategies for smart specialisation that support the development of well-performing national or regional research and innovaatio systems,
Over 400 stakeholders from all participating countries participated in the process. 26. The assessment criteria for researcher's were:
and dialogue. 2. Defining and clarifying concepts 2. 1 Weak signals alongside emerging issues and wild cards Horizon scanning implies a search process,
a creative process of collective sense-making by way of collecting and synthesising observations that hold potential for the formulation of pertinent future developments and the derivation of actionable implications on decision-making.
One important opportunity in this process is to use web 2. 0 tools in a participatory way to involve interesting potential contributors (in particular a broad variety of experts)
It is about analysing and understanndin the societal contexts behind the entire process of initiation, communication,(r) evolution and disseminattio of issues,
It is also important to complement the validation process with relevant surveys or workshops. It is equally important to utilise automated tools for the clustering and network analysis of issues
interests and needs of those people who are involved in the process. Given also the limitations of the scanning methods
information and the process itself is of crucial importance. At the same time, horizon scanning has to be accepted as an additional source of evidence for policy-making.
Involving policy-makers sufficiently early in the process so that they can provide regular information on the process
and obtain results is important. It is also important that policy-makers are engaged actively especially in interpreting the results and deriving policy recommendations.
a creative process of collective sense-making by way of collecting and synthesizing observattion that hold potential for the elaboration of pertinent future developments and the derivation of actionable implicaation for decision-making.
From the process perspective, this type of direct engagemeen in workshops helps expose policy-makers to the diversity of issues at stake.
JRC-IPTS proposed that a robust portfolio modelling (RPM) screening process (Ko nno la et al. 2007;
horizon scanning is inherently a bottom-up process where results from individual sense-making activities are followed by collective processes where the scanners take stock of
however, this type of‘bottom-up'process implies that the list of prioritized issues may not be very coherent (Bunn and Salo 1993.
Fraunhofer complements these strategic planning activities with a process to identify and strategiicall develop research themes across its institutes.
by adapting its corporate process for defining and developiin research themes across its institutes. Fraunhofer's strategic R&d planning predominantly takes place at the level of its 60 institutes and its six groups of institutes, each with a similar technological scope.
The strategic planning activities are complemented by a process which aims to identify and strategically develop research themes across institutes (Fraunhofer Future topics).
This process is repeated every three years (Klingner and Behlau 2008. In order to differentiate from the rather technologydriive processes of the past,
between the current methods of production, consumption and the future availability of nonreneewabl resources. between a general and simultaneous process of increasing economic interdependence and differentiation. between spatial proximity in the context of accelerated urbanisation
therefore as an appropriate starting point for the Fraunhofer Future markets process. 2. 1. 4 Fourth example.
There was no longstanding process to formulate these types of megatrends or challenges. The Fraunhofer list (internal paper) of 2006 included:
Fraunhofer performed its first future-oriented process at a corporate level to identify strategic future topics across the institutes.
This first approach was followed by a second process in 2008 (Klingner and Behlau 2008. In this approach, the analysis of foresight studies was only a small work package followed by an internal survey to generate topics.
However, dedicated internal funding for each topic was not inherent in the process. 3. 3 Rationale for a new 2010 future-oriented process (demand-driven) The rationale of the Fraunhofer approach started with the assumption that there are obviously science
That means‘real'prototypes or results developed in a collaborative manner are expected from the projects Section 4 explains this process in more detail. 4. Methodology of the 2010 process 4. 1 The concept of the 2010 future-oriented
The process had a first top-down part, in which global societal challenges were analysed and adapted to Fraunhofer-specific challenges.
bottom-up, part of the process. Within a competitive call, institutes teamed up to develop technological solutions to the challenges in the form of collaborative project proposals.
In this first part of the process, mainly politically driven proposed actions as well as technological approaches to solutions of the challenges were identified from the State of the Future report,
The following process steps were performed to distill specific Fraunhofer challenges from the report:(1) Selecting suitable global challenges
With this input, the generalist team formulated the final list of Fraunhofer challenges (see Figs 5 and 6). To summarise the process (see Fig. 6),
when designing and performing the process were to:.Find the right challenges for Fraunhofer: look at global challenges
include different people from Fraunhofer in the process so that in the end there is support for the future Fraunhofer projects..
Ensure broad acceptance through a transparent process: the process is performed in an open and transparent way
so that every institute has a chance to apply and participate. This is necessary for acceptance. 4. 3 Dedicated projects to tackle the challenges The Fraunhofer challenges served as a framework for an internal competitive call.
but the process is rather informal. The single research units are then able to apply for money from the central units to finance their different projects..
SINTEF does not have a formal process for defining tts overarching topics. The SINTEF research and technology development portfolio is defined at the level of the single institutes.
this corporate process needs to be participative and transparent to receive broad acceptance among the many stakeholders (e g. the Fraunhofer board, 60 institutes, 6 institute groups and 20 institute alliances).
when executing such a process in this context, and which may even be helpful in other contexts:.
each organiser of a process has to define for himself what has to be addressed under the heading of global challenge.
Other institutes were involved often quite late in the development and formulation of the problem-solving process.
Fraunhofer future markets. 243 The authors of this paper were involved in the concept and practical application of the 2010 Fraunhofer futureorieente process.
As the projects which can be regarded as the results of this process are still running,
Kolz, H. and Hadnagy, C. 2012)‘ A regional foresight process to cope with demographic change: Future radar 2030 (Zukunftsradar 2030)',International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy, forthcoming special issue.
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