The following question remains largely unexplored: how do managers design their strategic foresight approach in different environments and thus under different conditions of uncertainty?
This is exactly the main question we address in this paper. Its relevance is extremely high because the role of anticipatory actions is a key issue in literature on strategic management (Ansoff 1991;
and Siemens. 5 Given the inadequate analysis in the literature and the open-ended nature of our questions, we felt that this methodological approach would be the most useful for theory building (Eisenhardt and Graebner 2007;
but, most of all, an answer to the following questions: what are the newkinds of products and services that customerswant?
The important questions are as follows: which activities play a key role in enabling businesses to access new sources of competitive advantage
and find answers to questions of a strategic nature. However, the tool is tuned to interactive exploration rather than static presentation.
or IA lead interacting with the visualizations that formulates questions and new ideas based on the information and patterns seen there.
In reality, the opportunity space is somewhat broader than this definition given that the map can cause the analyst to form questions
and join the best of those to our visualizations to answer questions related to return on investment 11.
In this article, we explore the questions of systemic transformations and the building of an anticipaator culture in the context of VTT Technical research Centre of Finland.
Hence, our article starts with a question of howto foster these kinds of strategic capabilities in an organisation.
We explore the questions of systemic transformations in the context of Finnish RTO, namely VTT Technical research Centre of Finland,
and 4. secure life. 2. 2 Delphi Delphi is characterized by repeated questions for the collective convergence of opinions,
and question items to be surveyed. They set 94 areas (groups of interrelated topics) with 832 topics.
If the transfer of foresight results is essentially a dialogue process then the question arises
and guiding questions in workshop are framed in terms of needs and interests rather than positions. Thus, a constructive framework for further discussions throughout the process can be established. 4. 2 Step 2:
and questions that offers a language for BMBF units to discuss the subject area. In this step, a strategic dialogue may also explore the European
Findings The emergence of grand challenges within research and innovation policy discourse in Europe has refreshed key questions for foresight theory and practice.
and Technology policy-makers and politicians are keen to find an answer to the challenging question of where they should be investing their resources to produce economic, environmental and social dividends.
or reframing questions for the research and innovation system. The method used in the case study is to examine outputs from the foresight project conducted on global drivers and trends and their (national) implications for research and enterprise.
Grand challenges refresh and recast some important questions for Foresight and research and innovation policies. 2. Grand challenges the emergence of a new frame of reference In the public funding of research, there are often tensions between two basic principles:
and contextualise the principal themes and questions raised for the nation as a whole and the more specific dimensions of research, technology and enterprise.
and the degree to which organisations were already addressing issues raised by them (see Table II for focus questions used in the roundtable discussions).
During the second half of the project, Forfa's posed the question of how the global drivers
These were produced by synthesising the Table II The roundtable discussion focus questions 1 The initial drivers work has identified some global drivers that may be relevant.
There was an average of 29 responses for each question, with a range of 19-35 responses.
and 3. questions for further investigation on the basis of the main results and conclusions of the project we identify directions for further analysis in order to increase the impact of the project's results on policy-making.
and Table III The interrelation of the projects Research focus Main results Questions for further investigation FS1 The evaluation of topics by the following criteria:
and it cannot be reduced to the question of its level of methodological sophistication. To put it in a somewhat simplified way,
This overall question needs to be divided into several‘sub-questions, 'which are highly demanding themselves.
These tendencies raise important questions on the value and scope of combining methods, as well as on the reasons why, such combination, within the FTA COMMUNITY, seems to proceed at a lower rate than in other fields.
This paper aims at reflecting on those questions. Section 2 looks at the potential value of using quantitative and qualitative approaches.
It also raises the question as to why simpler forms of methodological combination are developed relatively well
To answer these questions, one should know the current life cycle stage of the technology in order to estimate future development trends to make informed decisions on
and tries to answer the question on the validity of evolutionary models of technological change. After some introductory thoughts in the first part, it is tried in the second part to summarize in five points some of the still missing pieces to complete the puzzle to developing a firmly based Evolutionary theory of technological change (ETTC.
Q This question is hardly a new one, and we can even trace an at least three-decade long debate on this issue.
and to address some important considerations necessary to answer the question above. The sense one gets from the published literature on this theme is that the to date effort has been in great part centered on the striking similarities between biological evolution
Theorizing about the evolutionary (Darwinian) aspects of technological change is then not merely a question of using metaphors and making analogies,
The question at that time was why a single universal algorithm (the logistic equation) can describe so different growth processes?
The question remains: what is the common denominator underlying the growth phenomena of populations of multiplying cells, Drosophila, humans, and innovations?
that can be subsumed under the following questions are innovations (or novelties) in the biological, cultural,
and then answering in the positive the question above about the same nature of novelties in the biological, cultural and technological realm:!
In a very recent book edited by John Ziman 15 (Technological innovation as an Evolutionary Process) we have different authors theorizing about these questions,
and yet again others qualify arithmetic for such systems as useless 6. Such comments raise the question
EMA is focused not narrowly on optimizing a (complex system to accomplish a particular goal or answer a specific question,
but can be used to address‘beyond what if'questions, such as Under what circumstances would this policy do well?
Reflexive inquiry Innovation Scenario practice Grand challenges 1. Introduction In the context of this paper, future scenarios can be seen as narratives set in the future to explore how the society would change
Section 2 sets out the methodology of how we use reflexive inquiry to analyze the scenario case studies.
In this paper we argue that this kind of reflexive inquiry can and does provide a sound basis for challenging current practice,
The outcomes of this inquiry are presented in Section 4 including also implications for practitioners by elaborating elements of good practices and areas of improvement.
Reflexive inquiry draws on a social constructionist view of the world and provides a powerful approach that offers insights for academics
Reflexivity as a methodology 28 questions representation by suggesting that we are constantly constructing meaning and social realities as we interact with others
In accordance with Cunliff 27 and to be consistent with reflexive inquiry, we first have to deconstruct scenario practice.
In order to do so, three complementary questions on policy change are applied to analyze the case studies:(i) How can developing
The three questions represent a specific perspective linking action and decision-makingwith issues of (i) emergence,
This paper reports on the reflexive inquiry that originates from several workshops with scientists and practitioners where the case studies have been articulated
In the context of this paper, we will argue that this process of reflexive inquiry will provide the basis for creating new insights
The main research questions were: What methodological issues are salient in relation to the identification of emerging trends and change?
Each of these questions can be seen to evoke the motivation of a particular approach to scenarios.
the scenario cases are evaluated using the three complementary questions on policy change mentioned in Section 2 (Material and methods).
we argue that our reflexive inquiry of the selected cases from Appendix 1 helped disclose several representation issues in scenario practice.
The question that emerges is how we can learn from using and developing future scenarios to assist in the orientation of innovation systems?
Following a reflexive inquiry methodology in the analysis of the scenario cases listed in Appendix 1,
three complementary questions on policy change are applied to analyze scenario practice:(i) How can developing and using future scenarios present a window of opportunity to effectively drive decisions?;(
we were able to (re) construct findings to the above questions:(i) if a sense of urgency was established
Based on our reflexive inquiry used to analyze scenario exercises in their context we can then attribute the most characteristic mode of thinking. 4 Innovation is not only about invention, creation,
Our use of a reflexive methodological approach with three complementary questions on policy change, supported the grouping of different approaches of developing
/27 A l. Cunliffe, Reflexive inquiry in organizational research: questions and possibilities, Hum. Relat. 56 (2003) 983 1003.28 M. Alvesson, K. Sköldberg, Reflexive Methodology:
New Vistas for Qualitative Research Towards a Reflexive Methodology, Sage, London, 2000.29 P. De Smedt, Interactions between foresight and decision-making, in:
the question of future-oriented governance of emerging technologies gets raised repeatedly. A decade ago, the question addressed how to maximize the contribution of such technologies to economic innovation with the intention of enhancing competitiveness 1, 2. Today,
the question also includes how to use these technologies to tackle societal challenges and to contribute to environmental sustainability 3, cf. 4. In both rationales,
different types of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) are used to determine national science and technology priorities, to develop governance frameworks
The paper considers the following questions: How is embedded FTA in the national innovation policy? How are specific governance measures related to FTA and to the establishment of focal organizations?
Historical analysis indicates that the process of drawing the boundary so as to exclude Drexler's ideas was connected closely with controversies around the question,
but via co-nomination 56 experts answered the questions). Many participants stressed their interest not only in the visions
Participants felt free to put open questions to the project team. The emotional language used by some participants indicates that visual inspiration mobilised intuition and emotional engagement.
The framework of dimensions of change used to assess the results of the signal screening phase enabled the INFU team to systematically question anticipatory assumptions and to reintroduce opposing views in a reflexive manner.
An important question to ask is what the user community might want from FTA in respect of guiding research and innovation strategies in the light of grand challenges?
According to Hofstede, the uncertainty avoidance dimension impacts the question of‘‘how a society reacts on the fact that time only runs one way
In the interviews, we used open questions, to gain a broader understanding of the issues mentioned in the research questions.
One of the authors conducted both national level inquiries that were used as data sources for this article.
By way of contrast, the national level inquiries showed that civil servants are relatively familiar with foresight methods, especially scenario analysis,
Who has no Question Does Not Seek for an Answer Universiteit Twente, 2010.22 J. W. Kooijmans, M. Rours, Decision making Under Uncertainty, Plandag 2011, Brussel, 2011.23 P. A. van der Duin, R. van
in order to shape the key questions to be addressed (Fig. 1) and alternative ways to answer these.
and implementation of the project by bringing together the identification and discussion of intended impacts with efforts to define each operational step and question related to guiding the process.
From the outset the initial design was geared towards taking into account the specificity of context and intentions when identifying guiding questions (i e. intended impacts and objectives), determining participants (i e. type and level of stakeholders'participation),
this would be an interesting question for future research or a project. Further efforts to develop
and convince partners of the benefits of elaborating the survey questions in a way that would enable it to capture future innovation ideas and the ways in
In crowdsourcing on the other hand, an unsolved problem or question in this case what are (future) needs concerning digital TV is submitted to a large‘crowd'of users, drawing on knowledge that is available in the crowd.
which were not possible at the time of the study (the questions can be found in the appendix).
The ideas and needs that came out of the open questions were coded into different categories. The main category grouped rather common needs/complaints (i e.,
The ideas are ranked based on the percentages from this question.‘‘In development'shows the number of experts (N=15) that believe this idea is already in development somewhere,
The probe consisted of seven small assignments/questions, one for each day in a week. On day 1
The link between futures research and innovation networks led us to investigate the following questions:(1) How is futures research related to the context of‘open innovation'in general,
We explore these questions by describing three cases with different settings, by applying the Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM)
and stakeholders in the strategic question of how FTA can improve both their preparedness and ability to move fast
a clear link with today's policy agenda and propose some reseaarc questions to further analyse these critical succees factors.
identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge Victor van Rij Over the past decade, horizon scanning has been recognised as part of forward-looking government processes in a number of industrialised countries.
and research programming on strategic challenges and questions within these issue clusters. Preparing further cooperation
All the scans are designed to generate themes and questions that cross policy domaain and research disciplines,
and connections domains+disciplines 7. Cluster descriptions 9. Knowledge and strategic questions per cluster 8. Essays per cluster 3 5 4 6 910 1
COS was the umbrella organisation of the so-called sector councils for R&d that were established by Dutch law during the 1980s to provide strategic knowledge questions for departmental policies in a number of policy domains (environment, agriculture, health,
but could also serve as a platform for exchanging experiennc and addressing methodological questions relevaan to horizon scanning such as the role of values (prevention of biases),
The EC recently approved different blue sky projects that focus on these questions like the Citizen Visions on Science,
We can glimpse the methodological questions that need to be answered in the sections below. Weak signals
wild cards and stakeholder involvement In all scans questions arose regarding the ways in which stakeholder (or public) involvement in the initial phase could be improved.
Supporting evidence and issue description Another common question concerned the high level of aggregation of the issues in the descriptions in the scan highlights the danger of superficiality.
or a research funding scheme (as in Denmark) or to identify new crosscutting questions that need further forwardloookin attention with other methods and transdiscipliinar approaches (clusters of issues, as in The netherlands).
resulting in a set of 36 uncertain issues and open questions in six thematic blocks (see Table 1). Experts were asked to assess the importance of each thesis in different dimensions (economic, scientific, society,
the structure of the creative content sector and the fundamental transformation process it is undergoinng of particular importance is the question of how new,
However, the above finding raises the question of the appropriateness of carrying out a FTA on such a diverse sector with a specific policy area like R&d in mind.
Controversial positiion may call into question current political agendaas and make the definition of new ones difficult.
it involves asking a series of strategic questions to national foresight expeert identified through global foresight networks,
Phase 1 of the first study asked the following questions: Which five countries do you believe have advanced the most, productive or successful foresight programs?
and success factors identified from the answers to the phase 1 questions: What is the national foresight mandate?
The second study aimed to extend the analysis by asking the following questions: What motivated your government's foresight effoort in the first place?(
which tended to question the need for or exclude new information Links to senior policy-makers: some, but inadequate to defend the program Linkages have been mixed,
Participants in the focus groups were asked to descrrib their daily activities at different times using questions like
The test users were not aware that the signal strength was manipulated. 4. Post-usage questions on device (e g.
Immediiatel after the completion of each scenario, the test users were asked to fill in a short experiennc questionnaire of six questions (five-point scales),
Figure 2 shows the rating of the answers given by user 10 to several questions (Q1
Figure 2 Ratings for user 10 on questions Q1 Q2, Q5 and Q6 User involvement in future technology analysis Science and Public policy February 2010 60 Conclusion In this paper, we have focused on the shift from traditiiona technology push to more user-oriented and user
it still remains an open question whether or not this policy measure is also relevant in macroeconomic terms.
A further open question is of course, if some kind of‘functional equivalent'of this policy at a broader base, e g.
The agenda was built around five key questions: what kind of emerging issues should FTA seek to address,
In general, horizon scanning activities for the shaping of systemic policies involve three key questions: how to facilitaat the recognition of signals and the elaboration of correspoondin policy issues;
the priority issues and critical questions comprise the key points. This starts with the correct identification of factors associated with the subject under analysis, including its nature and scope, time horizon, intended applications of the results by clients etc.
and the question is: What can be done? In this phase, participants (mainly decisionmakkers are asked to think how to implement the alternattive identified in the previous phases,
It is possible to see results in real-time, filter by question or respondent, and export the data.
The question remains how that transformation is related to policy practice, that is, how deeply the quantitative transformation of resource inputs has affected the design of the policy process.
we address the following questions in this paper:.How are research priorities set in China?.What are its defining characteristics and practices:
However, in this paper we have not answered the question:‘‘how'could a government make appropriate RTDI policies to foster the development of NSTISS?
The question should be analyzed further in future research. Acknowledgements The author particularly wishes to thank Prof.
The central question in this paper is whether or not the new mission focus on grand challenges offers windows of opportunity for a more directed
Against this conceptual background the four guiding questions addressed in the subsequent sections are:.What areas and types of transformations will require anticipatory action?
Section 2 addresses the first two questions, including also the future conceptual requirements for FTA systems that are likely to emerge,
Broader socioeconomic questions have complemented scientific technological ones, but the focus of attention has remained on research and innovation (R&i) policies,
The subsequent observations deal with the question of how these requirements and challenges can be addressed by combinations of governance contexts and appropriate organisational models of FTA. 3. 2. 2 Observation 2:
The question that arises from these observations on the possible future evolution of FTA is whether or not these types of developments will be sufficient to cope with the challenges of transformative and disruptive changes.
identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge',Science and Public policy, 37:7 18. Warnke, P. 2011)‘ Implementing systemic RTI priorities Recent experience from Germany,
The question was by how much longer. Many of the grand challenges that ICSU activities are focused upon,
or financial resources to tackle the crucial scientific questions alone. Policy-making is more participatory and open with science making a valued contribution:
In the context of Victoria's construction industry, the question of strategic intervention is motivated basically by the rather‘conservative'nature of the field.
focusing on the questions of energy price and availability. The scarcity of water is an important issue,
duration, upgradeability, recyclability Global treaties, initiatives and campaigns on environmental questions Shortage of fossil fuels and fresh water Standardization of green monitoring solutions REGULATION AND DEMAND-SIDE POLICIES:
Selection of which documents to include is crucial especially in‘bottom-up'analysis. Focused expert review is predefined based on reference frame Predefined criteria reflected in survey questions,
and associated selection criteria In survey ensured by survey questions. In focused expert review ensured through application of specific referennc frame and associated selection criteria.
identifying common strategic choices and questions for knowledge',Science and Public policy, 37:7 18..(2010b)‘ Horizon scanning:
and synthesizing The strong reliance on scanners in soliciting signals raises questions about who are legitimate‘scanners
In this paper, we address the question of global challenges, their definition, why and how Fraunhofer can best direct its overarching research topics towards solutions for some of the global challenges.
This new strategy process should orient itself more towards demand-driven questions. That means following the principles of corporate social responsibility and developing new ways for Fraunhofer research markets of the future.
But the first question to ask was: What are the global challenges and questions of the future?
In this paper, we therefore address the question of global challenges, their definition, why Fraunhofer undertakes such an endeavour
and how Fraunhofer can best direct its strategic research towards solutions for some of the global challenges. 2. Framework:
this question was posed already earlier because within the Fraunhofer Society with its 60 institutes, there is a broad portfolio with a huge variety of scientific disciplines, applications and knowledge in general available.
but rather projects with potentially high impacts on the societal questions of the future. The aim of the 2010 process was that, ultimately,
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