socio-technical paradigm of central generation plants with wide area distribution networks. The presumed superiority of this paradigm relied on a series of assumptions,
They are particularly strong in OECD countries where infrastructure networks have been established since decades. In the social science literature, the couplings have been described as socio-technical regimes.
network infrastructures have defined a clearly spatial extension and are of key relevance for economic development, human wellbeing and locational advantage for industry and citizens of a specific region.
while sewer networks are owned and operated independently by each community. Three wastewater treatment plants have been renovated recently,
and the sewer network could be dismantled outside dense settlement structures. However, some caveats about the performance of these future technologies in more densely populated villages were raised also.
Strengths include the replacement of the cost intensive sewer network and the flexibility of the system, especially under downturn and top/flop scenarios.
In the downturn scenario, the core team assessed onsite treatment as the best solution due to savings in the sewerage network,
One implication could be that the sewer network expansion to new peripheral settlement areas might be stopped
and a downsizing of the network should be considered in case major renewals in the sewerage would become necessary.
An Investigation into the Long-term challenges and Opportunities for the UK's Strategic Highway Network, Highway Agency for England, London, 2003.42 Office of Science and Technology, Intelligent Infrastructure Futures, Foresight Directorate
Greening as strategic development in industrial change why companies participate in eco-networks, Geoforum 39 (1)( 2008) 32 47.63 J. Gausemeier,
Network building and participation in the foresight process provide an opportunity to affect the future developments and to create more desirable futures.
The recruitment phase builds the network of experts, stakeholders and others meaningful to the process.
gain network thinking and action. They need to focus on strategic thinking and acting towards the future success and exclusively on the current success. The process begun from very general phenomena of politics, society,
relevant collaborative networks and future actions. o Diverse future perspectives refer to understanding diverse ideas, opinions and perspectives in priority-setting,
identifyyin and fostering alternative and competing coalitions and value networks as well as exploring alternative futures and generating rivalling visions.
and construct the knowledge create an understanding and share it in networks of people. Futures and safe situations,
That is why network building is the crucial part of assessment processes and methodologies. We can cope with the uncertainty by collecting
This may, for example, concern integration of theories of networks or organisational culture in risk management more solidly.
EFMN European foresight monitoring Network, 2009, Available at http://www. foresight-network. eu/files/reports/efmn mapping 2007. pdf (Read July 8th 2009.
Dr. Annele Eerola is Senior Research scientist and Deputy Technology manager of the knowledge centre‘Organisations, Networks and Innovation systems'at VTT.
through networks, with diverse and changing sets of people, continually cross-referencing data, and monitoring decisions.
Development of comprehensive indicators is time-consuming requiring a fair amount of resources as well as a widespread contact network within the society.
Index (Economic Freedom Network) Economic Sentiment Indicator (EC) Internal Market Index (EC) Business Climate Indicator (EC) Environment Environmental sustainability Index (World
Revolution or a History of the Future, 1991 New york, XXXX. 11 M. Castells, The Rise of Network Society, The Information age:
as well as new networks and visions amongst stakeholders. Embedding participation in policy-making: facilitating the participation of civil society in the policy-making process,
Improving distributed intelligence in complex innovation systems, Final Report of the Advanced Science & Technology policy Planning Network (ASTPP), Karlsruhe, 1999.
Those networks of actors are seldom willing to accept changes in core aspects of relevant policies.
and support decision-making include the 5 The Future Analyst Network (FAN-Club) has been established as a permanent network of people dealing with future-related issues in different departments, agencies and the private sector. 1203
virtual networks that can easily adapt to changing context conditions and information requirements, remains another open question.
Sound process management needs to exploit existing routes to influence, such as policy networks, the media, business schools or schools of government.
and workshop within a programme of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) in a nanotechnology research network called Frontiers. 3 The FTA ACTIVITIES in this network revolve around multi-(potential) stakeholder workshops where the aim is to explore the complex dynamics in and around specific areas of nanotechnology important for the Frontiers
Network of Excellence (Frontiers Noe). The objective of the programme was to gain a deeper understanding of issues,
or product lines. 3 The FP6 funded Network of Excellence Frontiers is a network of 14 European research institutes,
and parcel of the actor-network that carries the innovation as well as the broader landscape which overtime shifts.
Green et al. 16 in their comparison of the techno-economic networks (micro-level analysis stemming from sociology)
These configurations are entanglements (sometimes regular networks) of many actors, interacting based on regimes of activities.
which journeys through these bubbles. 7 The technology (and its socio-technical network) shifts and reconfigures based on the arenas it encounters,
but does not show details of the socio-technical networks. This is a reduction of complexity.
and is part of a socio-technical network of actors, artifacts and infrastructures which evolve with the innovation.
explore possibilities and draw out some recommendations to guide both the Nanotechnology R&d network (Frontiers) who initiated the project as others exploring potential governance approaches.
mutual dependencies and network ties there is an endogenous future 11. While actors will always take enabling and constraining factors in the situation into account,
Industrial consortia and research networks develop agreed best practices, which are self-imposed and a number of codes emerge
Acknowledgements This project was conducted within the framework of the Frontiers network of excellence and the Nanoned programme (www. nanoned. nl.
Change 54 (1997) 251 268.9 R. van Merkerk, D. K. R. Robinson, The interaction between expectations, networks and emerging paths:
networks vs. paradigms, Res. Policy 28 (1999) 777 792.17 S. Bakker, H. van Lente, M. Meeus, Arenas of expectations for hydrogen technologies, Innovation studies Utrecht (ISU) Working
Studies in Making Sociotechnical Order, Walter de Gruyter, Berlin New york, 1998.22 M. Callon, Techno-economic networks and irreversibility, in:
Essays on Power, Technology and Domination, Routledge, London, 1991, pp. 132 161.23 B. de Laat, Scripts for the future technological foresight, strategic analysis and socio technical networks:
Delft University (NL) on multilevel analysis of body area networks (to be published in 2010). Also the multilevel approach similar to 2 was used in one of the Frontiers Constructive TA exercises on the drug delivery sector,
and the emergence of clusters and networks in nanotechnology. Special issue on Nanoscale research, Res. Policy 36 (2007) 871 879.41 A. Nordmann, If and then:
and (5) building new networks and linkages across fields, sectoor and markets, or around problems (Johnson and Jacobsson 2001).
The methods used in this approach to strategy formulation are, among others, stakeholder analyses, networks, negotiations, political games, alliances and power bases in expertise (i e. academic reputation.
There was a relatively strong network, both informal and formal, between the programme management and the established industrial and research actors in the field of energy technology.
creating or reinforcing networks The strategy of new measures or instruments; the strategy of (technological and scientific) territory:
from an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53.
and a capacity to absorb knowledge across a wide range of global knowledge networks. But in small countries, this is particularly difficult to achieve across the board as many S&t areas lack sufficient‘critical mass'to keep pace with all the latest developments.
as the hub of a network of research locations in the Central European Region (CENTROPE).
From this network perspective, policy making is not just about government, but about the joint impact of public and private decision making on society's course of change and the interactions that precede formal decision making.
3) Policy facilitating by building a common awareness of current dynamics and future developmment as well as new networks and visions among stakeholders,
(knowledge network) Intermediate Articulation of joint visions of the future, establishing longer-term perspectives Ultimate Integrating new able actors in the community that is shaping an area of concern Counselling Immediate Making hidden agendas
in strategies and policy programmes) Incorporating forward-looking elements in organisations'internal procedures Facilitating Immediate Effective actions taken Intermediate Formation of action networks Creation of follow-up activities Ultimate
5) Integrating Vienna's RTI in European networks and strengthening co-operation within the CENTROPE region in order to create a common RTI area that will successfully compete in Europe and in the world. 4. 3. From strategy to action:
Further improvement of working conditions for scientists and creative individuals is called for by providing local networks as breeding grounds for invention and creativity.
5) A European location for research and innovation Vienna as a hub for international networks:
Vienna is to be established as the centre of international research networks, and of networks in the CENTROPE region in particular.
In this context, Vienna's network-based location of research and innovation will be strengthened further. 4. 4. Implementation the schedule for 2008 and beyond Based on the objectives,
challenges and measures identified during the strategic process‘Wien denkt Zukunft, 'several concrete proposals for new projects or initiatives were developed in the five fields of action.
and lead to the creation of crosscutting networks. The complexity of research and innovation became apparent to many participants
and whether a more open, network-type governance culture can be established within local government itself, as well as between local government and other research and innovation actors. 5. 3. Ultimate, long-term impacts Integrating suitable new actors in the community dealing with research and innovation is one of the key long-term impacts expected from foresight exercises.
Networks of innovators, a synthesis of research issues. Research policy 20, no. 5: 499 514. Freeman, C. 2002.
which makes it difficult to give a comprehensive overview of different organisatioons networks, schools and publications that discuss foresight as practice and as a‘school of thought'(Van Notten 2005,5).
Company Knowledge Network Fig. 2. Organizational ddone-Pagerq. A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1076!
or (5) to foster new networks (Georghiou and Keenan 2006). Ultimately, many of these objectives seek to strengthen the efficacy of innovation activities,
for instance by improving the stakeholders'understanding of the R&i system or by fostering collaboration processes within innovation networks (cf.
most notably by encouraging the panellists to consult their own professional networks when making their contributions to panel work. 4. 3. Consensual vs dissensual development of recommendations Consensual development of recommendations can be understood as the creation of jointly characterrise priorities, collaborative networks and future actions,
with an emphasis on points of mutual agreement and apparent consensus. This can be contrasted with dissensual development where the emphasis is purposely on retaining the full range of diverse priorities that may be suggested by different value networks
and coalitions that may reflect rivalling visions or even incompatible perspectives on the future (Könnölä,
Science & Technology policy Planning Network (ASTPP), Frauenhofer Institute, Systems and Innovation research, Karlsruhe, 1999.7 L. Mermet, T. Fuller, R. van der Helm, Reexamining
It builds on a conceptual framework developed in a project of the European Network of Excellence PRIME5
+31 053 489 3353/3350.5 PRIME=Policies for Research and Innovation in the Move towards the European research area, European Network of Excellence (2004 2009;
Federating EU instruments like Networks of Excellence (Noes) and large facilities which are organising research agenda at transnational levels are also to be considered as contributing to the programming of research.
Furthermore, Foresight processes are supposed to help designing new value networks that are based on the novel combinations of technologies, organisational partnerships and institutional arrangements.
However, the excessive strengthening of existing networks (see e g. 35) may create pathdependdencie and locking-out alternative technological options 36.
and even the destruction of lock in conditions by engaging different stakeholders in the proactive generation of rivalling visions for competing coalitions based on different value networks with different architectures, configurations, features and standards 37,38.
Arenas of governance Foresight objective Priority-setting Networking Building visions Strategic orientation Macro policy priority setting National/EU level stakeholders networks Overall political
level vision building Programming Programmes scientific priority setting Programmes stakeholders networks Sectoral vision building, context of roadmaps Performing Research institutions strategic processes Research institutions
partners and stakeholders networks Research institutions first step in strategic process A. Schoen et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 236 For instance, the progressive sliding of the field of biocatalysis away from‘catalysis'within chemistry towards biotechnologies illustrates an actual reconfiguration of a current knowledge area that is combining splitting and merging
In a second place, the three revised dimensions of search regimes characteristics have been reformulated using the three classical networks measures relating respectively to dimensions, positions and relations.
Growth is analysed through the dimensions of techno-scientific networks. Divergence is interpreted as the relative position of sub-networks or clusterings.
And complementarity is assessed through the analysis of intensity of relations within the network 45. As a third new element we suggest to broaden the analytical framework (originally designed for purely scientific environments) towards the realm of technological knowledge,
in order to cover the full scope of Knowledge dynamics. Consequently, we include also the monitoring of patent applications (technometrics.
The two strings of co-activity (scientific authorship by corporate researchers and patented invention by academics) can be analysed as linkages between the scientific networks (formed by authors)
and the technological network (formed by inventors) whose intensities reflect the institutional complementarity between industry and academia within a given techno-scientific area.
It is composed as a network of research funding organisations responsible for the development of national or regional plant genomics research programmes.
Table 3 Search regimes analysis through scientific publications and patents'network properties assessed at journal,
Growth network dimension Growth pattern relative position of clusters within the network Complementarities-relations within the network Cognitive Technical Institutional Journals network Number of journals Citations
flows between journals Flow of citations between clusters compared with flow of citations within cluster Documents network Number of docs Citations flows between docs clusters Flow of citations between clusters compared with flow
of citations within cluster Platform cited within scientific publications Words network Number of words Persons network Number of persons Academic patenting Industrial publications Co-active researchers'collaborations
in the field of nanotechnology the need to foster the forming of new value networks around nano-products
and Policy in Europe, PRIME Network of Excellence, 2008.44 A. Schoen, P. van den Besselaar, L. Henriquez, P. Lare'do, D. Pardo, Search Regimes:
a network analytical approach, in: Presentation at the Conference‘‘Knowledge for Growth: European Strategies in Global economy'',Toulouse, July 7 9, 2008.46 B. Kahane, A. Delemarle, L. Villard, P. Lare'do, Knowledge dynamics and agglomeration phenomena:
and technology to explore ad hoc wireless-mesh networks that allocate spectrum on the fly. The networks are self-organizing
and self-healing and depend on a peer-to-peer architecture that avoids routing bottlenecks typical of the current Internet
and peer-topeee file-sharing networks all contribute to an ongoing turbulent reassessment of traditional concepts of property rights.
Fig. 1 summarises the results of an analysis of 50 foresight exercises described in the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN) database. 1 These exercises listed a total of 199 objectives
and capacity building Priority setting for S&t Network building Supporting policy or strategy development Analysing the future potential of technologies Fig. 1. Analysis of objectives of 50 foresight exercises. 1 Thanks
which are intended to build on a thematic or priority-setting approach for example building action networks around the priorities and foresight exercises
which gradually shifted their stress from straightforward priorities to an emphasis upon network building on the industry-academic nexus. New priorities can themselves have structural implications;
technological lock ins and an inability to engage in the kind of networks now recognised as the environment in
Here the aimwas tomobilise actors and networks by reference to the research focus of their activities rather than to the location inwhich these activities are carried out.
Cariola and Rolfo link this to an evolution from hierarchical organisational structures with tangible assets to network knowledge-based organisational forms as a backdrop to the formulation of innovation policy 36.
Use of network building foresight approaches can help to redress this situation. In sum, as Wilkinson et al. put it in a guide to procurement for innovation:‘‘
(and build networks with conventional suppliers); regulators of potential technological and/or socioeconomic situations which regulation may promote;
whereby new networks and structures can evolve and grow. The traditional emphasis on production of broad-based priorities lists appears to be more of a historical phenomenon than a permanent feature,
FOREN Guide Foresight for Regional development Network A Practical Guide to Regional foresight, European commission, December 2001.6 H. Chesbrough, The era of open innovation, Sloan Management Review 44 (3)( 2003.
Human and Societal Dynamics, IOS Press, 2006, pp. 92 109.22 A. Sokolov, Russian Critical technologies 2015, European foresight monitoring Network Brief, 79.
foresight processes can also become a pertinent design phase for the creation of new value networks that are based on the novel combinations of technologies, organisational partnerships and institutional arrangements.
foresight processes can often be seen as a pertinent design phase for the creation of newvalue networks that are based on novel combinations of technologies, organisational partnerships and institutional arrangements.
Foresight activities often focus on the production of consensual future perspectives that refer to the creation of common understanding on priorities, relevant collaborative networks and future actions.
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 253 Consensual future perspectives refer to the creation of common understanding on priorities, relevant collaborative networks and future actions.
and value networks as well as exploring alternative futures and generating rivalling visions. Addressing both consensual and diverse future perspectives are crucial dimensions when dealing with sustainability, and security.
Extensive The process involved a network of security stakeholders. These were coming from different government departments, private companies, and research organisations.
f Commissioned by the Finnish Government. g A FP5 IST Thematic Network (2002 2005) coordinated by JRC-IPTS and managed in collaboration with DG Information society. h Commissioned by JRC-IPTS.
informative processes that create understanding on common priorities, relevant collaborative networks and/or future actions.
characterised not only by convergence of technology and by exchange of information other many different networks,
and instrumental outcomes) Priorities foresight can be characterised as consensual and instrumental processes that create common understanding on priorities, networks and/or future actions as well as support the specific foreseen decision-making situation.
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area (2002 2005) was an FP5 IST Thematic Network coordinated by JRC-IPTS
and value networks as well as identify alternative futures and rivalling visions. This relieves participants on the intensive search for consensus and direct support for decision-making
network with other stakeholders and in general enhanced their innovation capabilities. The foresight projects identified in Asia seemed to be all consensual;
Foresight influences all participants in the process as well as their networks. Furthermore, the outputs are reused often''by actors not considered in the design phase.
a co-evolutionary view Futures 20 (6)( 1988) 606 620.15 M. Castells, The Rise of the network society.
because the innovation system is constituted by numerous social practices, networks, institutions, and stakeholders. The latter, for instance, extend well beyond the‘‘usual suspects''of R&d-performing firms and public bodies,
ANP=analytic network process; MCA=multiple criteria analysis. 5 Thus the likely incidence of disease following a radioactive leak of a specific amount can be estimated on the basis of laboratory research and epidemiology;
Steering committee Stakeholder groups Expert networks Conferences & seminars Participants'and stakeholders'pilot projects R &d activities and strategy work Regional and national strategies and priority setting International agreements/strategies/priority setting Expert interviews Delphi surveys, questionnaires Interactive workshops focusing on SWOT
and questions for policy 1. Work conducted within the scope of the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN) included a strong element of scanning in the form of detecting
Cyber crime and network vulnerabilities from failure of human systems Increased barriers to access to natural resources Growing organizational and governance incapacity Water recognised as a valuable resource
17 Y. Nugroho, O. Saritas, Incorporating network perspectives in Foresight: a methodological proposal, Foresight 11 (2009) 6, 21 41.
and to draw them into a larger and more effective network which would provide access to greater resources,
fostering participation and building networks. Such an understanding is in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique generating oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Therefore
and the network of interdependences as well as the underlying cause-effect relations are known. Structurally closed tools are mainly of quantitative character,
The entire system can be seen as a network of relationships and interactions, in which the whole is very much more than the sum of the parts.
and rhythms rather than events (a specific example of focusing on interactions rather than constituent parts of a system), promoting effective neighbourhoods, building networks of reciprocal interaction,
The preceding informal network was formed in 2001 and recently, in November 2003, it received a substantial funding of 95 Million Euro by the Dutch government,
one could focus on emerging networks of actors and artefacts: the preferred entrance point of actor network theory 6, 11.
Then, the analyst would trace the emerging concentrations in actor-networks (e g.,, firm cooperation, joint research efforts),
a Sociology of Prospective Techno-Science, Ashgate Publishing company, London, 2000, pp. 43 64.6 M. Callon, Technological conception and adoption network:
networks, Angewandte Chemie International Edition 41 (2)( 2002) 353 356.26 Y. Huang, X. Duan, Q. Wei, C. M. Lieber, Directed
assembly of one-dimensional nanostructures into functional networks, Science 291 (2001) 630 633.27 P. Ball, Cylinders make circuits spontaneously, Nature News Service (2002)( January.
fostering participation and building networks, in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique that generates oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Research limitations/implications In order to boost the perception of scenario design as an added value instrument for urban planners
Third, it forms expert networks to exchange and disseminate knowledge deriving from the foresight exercises amongst stakeholders and political decision-makers.
The European commission's Foresight for Regional development Network (2001) published A Practical Guide to Regional foresight, which documented nine regional foresight exercises.
) The European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007) has published also the findings of its project‘‘Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe'',in
A GIS tool will show graphic information about urban growth, urban sprawl and infrastructure networks. This step requires sophisticated quantitative and graphic tools,
while the railway network will be augmented substantially and improved. Within the study area, travel by motorized vehicles will be minimized in favor of non-motorized means (pedestrians, bicycles and electric vehicles.
Simple mathematical algorithm Proximity to bycycle network meters 380 Close 200 Far 500 Midway 300 Normative policies Water consumption m3/pc
Distance travelled annually by motor vehicles for personal mobility (in vehicle kilometers Proximity to bicycle network.
Road networks will be reduced in favor of an extended railway system. Priority will be given to non-motorized transport modes, with the construction of new lanes.
B Build a social fortress based on family networks and Third Sector organizations to survive in a tough economic context.
Fourth, this exercise elicits the potential for using foresight as a powerful tool for the dissemination of territorial knowledge and the establishment of expert networks,
European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007), Scenarios on the Territorial Future of Europe, ESPON, Belgium.
Foresight for Regional development Network (2001), Practical Guide to Regional foresight, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Sevilla.
the‘‘Planetary Nervous system''will work as global sensor network, collecting data in real-time and allowing‘‘one to do reality mining on a global scale
and Technology observatory Network (ESTO), see Rader (2001). The latter was revised, moreover in Rader (2001, p. 4);
Rader, M. 2001),‘Monitoring of technology assessment activities'',report by the European Science and Technology observatory Network, Seville.
He argued that innovation policies should be better fine tuned to support the emergence of innovation networks and innovation ecosystems.
Cagnin and Loveridge focus on innovation networks by suggesting a dynamic framework of continual learniin that enables a business to develop a capacity to anticipate
and address change within the networks in which it is embedded, using FTA thinking to shape a pathway of a business towards sustainable development.
as well as a common strategy in their network of relationships, with support of FTA, in order to achieve coherence among network partners in progressing towards higher levels of sustainability.
They argue that, in addition to governments firms should also take a share of the responsibility for educating society
and information networks make distributed downstream innovation increasingly visible. Ontological unpredictability thus becomes importaan for technology analysis, foresight,
and access to the telex network has already been discussed in the first GSM plenary meeting in Stockholm in 1982 (CEPT-CCH-GSM 1982).
Networks of power: Electrification in western society 1880 1930. Baltimore, MD: The John Hopkins University Press.
Networks of innovation: Change and meaning in the age of the Internet. Oxford: Oxford university Press.
including the network of companies with which the business has either strong or weak interdependencies or interlocking arrangements of a quite different character (Cagnin and Loveridge 2012).
A business framework for enabling networks to evolve towards sustainable development. Technology analysis & Strategic management 24, no. 8:
Second, foresight might help to build networks and reinforce the connectivity of the innovation system. This can be through the creation of new combinations or the enhancement of existing networks.
A third objective of foresight is to build a consensual vision of the future in order to harmonise strategies of the different stakeholders.
as well as new networks among stakeholders Embedding participation in policymakkin Facilitating the participation of civil society in the policymakkin process,
Arenas of governance Foresight objective Priority-setting Networking Building visions Strategic orientation Macro policy priority-setting National/EU level stakeholders networks Overall political
level vision building Programming Programmes scientific priority-setting Programmes stakeholders networks Sectoral vision building, context of roadmaps Performing Research institutions strategic processes Research institutions
partners and stakeholders networks Research institutions first step in strategic process Source: Schoen et al. 2011). ) by universities and firms, the production, diffusion and transfer of knowledge;(
In all cases, actions, reactions and decisiion are framed in images of the future that circulate in professional networks or in the general media.
but highlights the forceful presence of expectations in industrial and professional networks. The sociology of expectations has detailed three forces of expectations in the dynamics of technical change:
but the work of networks of companies and research institutions. When a central control is lacking,
and outcomes become part of innovation races Networking Stakeholder participation tend to reproduce repertoires The newly established networks will start to promote the vision Participants may press their version of the future Building visions Foresight outcomes will not Be built very original visions may have unintended consequences
may help to challenge established networks or even circumvent lock in conditions by engaging different stakeholders (Havas 2003).
Likewise, when networks are built with foresight exercises (in which claims about the future are made) these networks will adopt the claims
and promote them. According to the‘trough of uncertainty'(Section 3 the performative rebound will be stronger
From an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53.
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