and policy and governance impacts with discussions and demonstrations at the regional and corporate levels.
Smart decision making linked to the ability to innovate calls for the anticipation and exploration of future directions through a societal debate within policy making,
cross-societal discussion of the future prospects for science and technology and with implementing the results of such discussions in priorities for public expenditures on research.
Second, foresight exercises usually include actors in the priority discussion other than scientists. In some cases only industry representatives are included in the process
but usually foresight involves a cross-societal discussion of needs, possibilities and priority-setting. Therefore, it seems obvious why many traditional research communities take a reluctant stance on foresight exercises. 2. 1. Rationale
4) bringing new actors into the strategic debate; and (5) building new networks and linkages across fields, sectoor and markets,
A discussion on this topic can be found in Kaivo-oja 2001. However, foresight seen in the light of three of the traditions are described in the following:(
This element is partly present in the emphasis in foresight exercises on participatory processes and societal dialogue.
consisted of internal discussions within the council. The Chairman and a working group of two other council members carried out much of the work.
On the basis of these discussions, seven strategic areas were defined for the Strategy plan. Therefore, the strategic areas can to some extent be seen as representing the main areas of research in science and technology,
During the process a parallel discussion took place about a new measure to be employed in the council's funding function.
Through these discussions, research consortia were defined as a type of funding in addition to existing instruments, such as engineering research centres, framework programmes and talent projects.
2) Discussion of the proposal with the actors in the area at a hearing meeting;(
-oriented Technology-oriented and methods Time horizon 10 20 years 2008 2012 and 2030 Method, systematics and tools Invited vision papers Council discussions Council members'own
Actor dialogues, partnershhip consensus seeking Advisory Council for Energy Research Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight
One presenttatio was intended to initiate a discussion of how foresight methods could enrich strategy processes within the councils and programmes.
Instead the discussion focused on questions on the nature of strategy and whether it is possible to make strategies in science at all,
parameters for comparing the case studies draw partly from contemporary discussions of foresight typology. The case studies revealed many different rationales for
in some cases such‘business-school language'even disturbs meaningful strategic discussion. This problem might be mitigated by adapting language to fit the traditions of the research arena.
and business opportunities and of broader societal needs and improved the discussion on science possibilities to contribute to these.
'and open debate to take place, which might otherwise be constrained by politicca considerations within an organisational setting.
An emerging consensus seems to suggest not, and it is accepted now generally that the users of S&t knowledge and artefacts,
but was intended rather to‘seed'discussion and debate in the following Step in the second part of Phase 1,
and to remain relevant while pushing at the‘normal'boundaries of debate (Keenan and Miles 2008.
Accordingly, the following sections are limited to discussion of the various and changing meanings given to FNR Foresight by a mix of stakeholder groups;
The international group of experts also emphasised the need to balance any discussion of thematic priorities with a strong consideration of structural priorities.
Several particiipant rightly made the point that consideration of domain priority areas could not be done in isolation from discussions of research infrastructures, the new University, and so on.
it is necessary to take into account recurring discussions in Luxembourg on the need to identify Table 2. National research priorities in the shape of research areas and research domains.
and they understandably tended to veer towards wider discussion of a whole range of structural issues which,
'Everyone (finally) realised that further discussions would be needed with the research communnit before agreement could be reached on priorities
and consensus was much more difficult to obtain. This might have been alleviated somewhat by holding more than just two meetings for each thematic area.
Many participants also had difficulty in engaging in a visioning dialogue. This might have been due to their unfamiliarity with foresight,
the private sector clearly welcomed the opportunity for dialogue with public sector researchers and some consortia seem to have spun out of the exercise that have gone on to submit proposals to the European commission.
and fruitfulness of such dialogue platforms between the private and public sector. The exercise has exploded also the myth that the private sector is interested only in short-term research.
Discussion around this point tended to get tied up with the idea of identifying new‘competence niches'for Luxembourg to exploit.
A further tension appeared in discussions of who should be involved in the process. Some particiipant particularly those who were already critical of the performance of the public research centres believed that the exercise was flawed by relying so heavily upon the ideas and visions of existing researchers.
and to increase consensus and commitment. Then again, the champions are the sole guarantors of a truly effective implementation of results.
and the economic development priorities in the various sectors of the economy. 9. The rationale for presenting EWS participants with a list of‘ready-made'research domains was to prevent discussions starting from scratch.
that the weakness of many of the existing disciplines needed to be addressed first before discussions could fruitfully move to discussion of interdisciplinary opportunities. 14.
therefore to initiate a process of strategic dialogue, bringing the growing number of diverse actors together in an open and self-critical debate.
technology and innovation options among players, creating debate Awareness of the systemic character of change processes Foresight skills are developed in a wider circle Dialogues in new combinations of experts and stakeholders and a shared understanding
These conditions, together with the pronounced consensus-orientation in policy making, provide the governance context in which the foresight
The results of the programme later on served to fuel the debates in the different expert panels in the strategy process phase.
when there was not even a first discussion Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 958 K. M. Weber et al. about setting up a broader participatory process on research
'Over the following 12 months, a broad participative debate on RTI policy strategies for the city was conducted.
The discussion was intended to develop a comprehensive strategy and vision for municipal RTI policiie by both identifying areas for action and implementing adequate policy measures until the year 2015.
Moreover, a website served not only to document the debates and their results, but interactive tools were made available to offer the public an opportunity to contribute to the process with own ideas and proposals throughout the whole period (www. wiendenktzukunft. at).
and open discussions that were synthesised subsequently by the chair, to moderated working sessions using a range of techniques to stimulate the creativity
The inter-panel meetings were facilitated by experienced moderators who had to fulfil the difficult task of ensuring that a consensus could be achieved regarding the actions proposed by the four panels.
In line with this consensus-oriented approach, dissenting views were excluded either or debated until a formulation was found that could be accepted by all participants.
providing space and occasions for public discussion about RTI, its opportunities and challenges. 4) Accelerating the dynamics in RTI by providing adequate infrastructure.
The three terms form a catchphrase to express the serious interest in strengthening the critical public dialogue about RTI, both within Vienna and on the international stage.
By means of a new set of measures called‘Vienna research in dialogue'a critical and continuous exchange of knowledge about RTI with the citizenry is to be fostered.
Under the slogan‘Vienna research in dialogue',the City will address essential contemporary and future issues in the field of science, research and technology.
because on the one hand participants felt obliged to achieve a consensus on initiatives to be suggested for the RTI-strategy,
in order to ensure widespread political consensus and avoid the formulation of contentious issues that might put into question the agreement by other councillors.
including the dialogue with the public. A number of follow-up activities to the initial set of actions are in the pipeline
whether the process of strategic dialogue and policy learning can be turned into a sustainable activity or not,
Identifying‘new'actors is less the key point than integrating the known actors (e g. from neighbouring policy areas) into the debates about research and innovation.
Avoiding these sensitive issues was necessary to reach consensus on other proposals. Finally, the largely inward-looking nature of the process, focusing very much on the scope for action by the local government
It is one of the intentions for the future to reinforce this dialogue, though. Overall, the need to achieve consensus on immediate policy actions among the key local policy actors implied that several of the more controversial issues,
often building on a longerteer perspective, had to be avoided in the strategy. Making conflicting positions explicit,
Discussion papers 06. Maastricht: United nations University, Institute for New technologies. Smits, R. 2002. The new role of strategic intelligence.
The article contributes to discussions of inclusive foresight by showing how stakeholder image construction poses questions of power relationships in municipal long term governance.
Discussions of foresight highlight the need for a trade-off between a workable commmo understanding of generic features and contingent national,
transport or local government, acknowledge the increasing demand for democratic dialogue about the future with affected parties and interest groups.
There is an increasingly participatory dialogue about the future between organisattion and various social groups such as knowledge workers (including experts), stakeholders and users of public services.
10.1080/09537320903262397 http://www. informaworld. com Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 972 S. Jenssen multi-stakeholder dialogue
the discussion will highlight how such an image creation can influence the participatory potential of social groups up to the point where we might question the added value of their contributions.
‘Our purpose is to shift the discussion from looking into the future to looking at how the future as a temporal abstraction is constructed
Thirdly, this discussion of stakeholder image construction in foresight is inspired by issues of reflexivity in social theory (Giddens 1991;
a discussion that has been developed elsewhere. 8 Methodology The research on this particular visioning project in a Norwegian municipality is part of a Phd project studying different practises of foresight in the public sector. The researchwas conducted by applying‘multi-sited ethnography'(Marcus 1995,95 117).
For the discussion at hand ethnographic moments were chosen which were‘indicative of dissonance'(Herzfeld 1997) and highlighted‘contesting values or problematic social changes of some kind'(O'connor 2004).
which the idea of assumed shared values collided with the ideal of community engagement. 9 The following discussion of how an image of schoolchildren as stakeholders
To avoid political discussions about unrealistic use of municipal areas resulting from the young Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 978 S. Jenssen Figure 2. Illustration by German cartoonist
and students to engage in social and political debate. The municipal leadership suggested that the YPCC could use these future pictures as a basis for their own visions, values and goals.
‘Communication is always characterised by the protection of interests and not by individual freedom or the search for consensus'(Hagen and Asmervik 2003,9;
This paper is a contribution to the discussion about the relationship between foresight and the democratic challenges of good governance and long-term planning.
For an in depth discussion of different types of scenarios, see Van Notten et al. 2003). ) 5. On visioning in municipal planning,
The notions of active citizenship and community involvement have become increasingly promineen in political discussions and policy practices within planning and future oriented governance (Stukas and Dunlap 2002;
consensus, accountable, transparent, responsive, effective and efficient, equitable and inclusive and follows the rule of law. It assures that corruption is minimised,
futur the German research dialogue. Research Evaluation 13, no. 3: 143 53. Cunliffe, A. 2005.
The demand for dialogue: studying the influence of organisers in public foresight. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 3, no. 4: 403 19.
o several terms appear for the first time in the most recent year's publications we could use these to stimulate discussion with our subject experts,
What the technology focus and organizational focus profiles hold in common is a compilation of empirical information to help answer a particular MOT question. 3. Discussion This paper illustrates how to compose informative decision support from empirical information concerning various
(4) to bring new actors to R&i debates, or (5) to foster new networks (Georghiou and Keenan 2006).
and the Finnish innovation Fund (Sitra) has sought to promote a constructive dialogue on impending societal challenges by establishing a So-called future Forum.
It was assisted by the guidance that the Steering Group provided through its discussions and decisions on key matters (e g. approval of project plans,
After extensive discussions, the Steering Group chose to establish the following panels:(1) Learning and learning society (2) Services and service innovations (3) Well-being and health (4) Environment and energy (5) Infrastructures and security (6) Bio-expertise
Towards this end, both funding agencies generated lists of prospective panellists who were approached by the Core group after coordinating discussions.
In most panels, the discussions were captured by building Mindmap charts that provided, together with the compilation document,
Practically all panels started the assessment phase of focus areas only after additional proposals had been generated further to the discussions at the second panel meeting.
with an emphasis on points of mutual agreement and apparent consensus. This can be contrasted with dissensual development where the emphasis is purposely on retaining the full range of diverse priorities that may be suggested by different value networks
Indeed, the characterisation of focus areas in panel reports suggested that the panels had succeeded in reaching a consensus (whichwas actually the case in most panels),
the partial autonomy that was given to the chairmen also served to empower them. 5. Discussion We conclude with a few methodologically oriented observations on Finnsight.
, academic debate and mutual learning among both academics and practitioners within project contexts such as Forlearn, 6 Costa22, 7 Forsociety8 and intense exchange with other approaches such as futures studies
Explorative and normative elements are combined as well as wide collective dialogue and targeted strategic conversations among key decision makers.
Efforts reaching the consensus may, however, lead to conservative and abstract results 33, to the effect that existing path-dependencies are strengthened further.
-medium-and long-term Strategic research Agenda for Europe's plant sector setting out a consensus on the research needed to fulfil the vision.
The immediate conclusion for Foresight is need the for consensus building among stakeholders from industry and civil society for a further development of the European research and innovation system.
The generation of socio-technical scenarios in a stakeholder dialogue may well create a more reliable ground for transferring research results into successful nano-innovations.
In SRIC-BI's scanning system, each month's set of 100-plus abstracts serves as the starting point for a monthly open-ended discussion
and takes the form of a free-floating discussion of any of the Scan abstracts that participants find provocative,
idea-killing behavior and steers the discussion clear of extended exchanges of opinion or philosophical discussions.
Frequent calls by the meeting facilitator for new clusters of abstracts or discussion topics are necessary to mine the month's abstracts as thoroughly as possible for signals of change.
The facilitator keeps the discussion reasonably close to K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1088 the abstracts'data points to make sure that the meeting does not degenerate into a discussion unrelated to the real-world marketplace
and client needs This paper describes just two of the many ways that scanning can lead to valuable insights.
and what level of discussion and participation are most productive. The meetings include a wide variety of expertise and Fig. 2. Conceptual overlays.
The presence of a senior manager can inhibit the discussion and stifle innovative ideas and input.
From this discussion we can identify a number of issues that must be faced if using foresight to identify priorities:
and the series of exercises in the Czech republic 9. On the other hand Havas and Keenan stress the important role that foresight has had in contributing to the realignment of the science system through bringing it to the fore of discussion and highlighting the missing links
Known as the market survey or technical dialogue, this stage takes place priori to the procurement process.
and discussion on the possible advantages of the proposed framework for the characterisation of foresight projects as contribution to the policy-making process. 2. Characteristics of foresight projects To understand the impacts of foresight in the system,
Fixed Structured discussion and the generation of new ideas in the workshops Autonomous Creative brainstorming and ideation in the different scenario and roadmapping workshops.
Consensual A project level consensus on the future developments. Still, different scenarios were considered. Fixed A fixed procedure
Consensual The outputs drove discussions of national security challenges to provide input into capabilities needed to meet these challenges.
Autonomous There is freedom in discussion for social scenarios in each field, and the priority setting of science and technology based on technology foresight.
The main purpose of the green paper was to launch a debate on the regulatory framework to put in place
and generated a number of debates on the future of information and communication technologies and the development of a knowledge society in Europe.
The outputs were used to drive the interdepartmental discussions of challenges to Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada (PSEPC),
and be used to stimulate a wider discussion among stakeholders. 3. 4. Agora foresight (diverse perspectives
This relieves participants on the intensive search for consensus and direct support for decision-making which provides opportunities for creative thinking
Such agora type of foresight activities provide a basis for a wide societal debate among different interest groups even with strongly diverging views on the desired future.
and partnerships that are watered not down by the search for wide consensus within the innovation system.
for example, the implementation of S&t policies may call for a sufficient degree of consensus about appropriate policy instruments (e g.,
We expect that the developed framework can facilitate the discussion about the expectations and the management of foresight projects and about its impact on policy-making and society at large.
Bell and Olick 2 reframe the discussion about‘‘knowledge of the future''by arguing that we posit the future
and discussion when a new cycle of the foresight activity is to be launched. Wealso often see a hasty scramble
Of particular interest is the discussion of the subtask of interpretation, subtask (v). She portrays this as the conversion of translated knowledge into understanding.
which can contribute important contributions to debate about future prospects and possibilities. Unfortunately for every study of this sort there are typically,
FTA PROCESSES striving for consensus differ from those welcoming diverse views on future developments; and instrumental FTA PROCESSES differ from merely informative ones.
Discussions of knowledge management, and efforts to plan relevant systems, may well focus on one or other of these polar types.
The earlier discussion of sensemaking and foresight phases can readily be related to such a SECI approach.
and debate about, ideas. There are periods where ideas are being written down and listed and where different lists are combined.
The process usually involves much dialogue, assisted by facilitators with‘‘scripts''(instructions and tasks) and with use of such instruments as whiteboards, flip charts, presentation graphics,
l p x E e g d e l w o n k t i c i l p x E Field building Linking explicit knowledge Dialogue Learning by doing Socialization
Discussions are captured on groupware systems or, more traditionally, on wall posters which provide a record of development and material for presentational purposes,
with discussion about the connections between ideas proving a good basis for exchanging information about implicit models and theories.
and linking the discussion of posits to practical actions in their own organisations. It is common for a scenario workshop to conclude with some effort at defining key actions
or priority areas for further work that emerge from the preceding discussions. This is typically a result of a major‘‘socialisation''process in the workshop that can be externalised
and dialogue may correspondingly remain more superficial. We would hope that system designers and those responsible for establishing the steps
The traditional techniques of face-to-face dialogue are not the only way in which we can engage in dialogue, debate, mutual learning,
and the creation of shared understandings. There are many accounts of deep intellectual (and emotional) relationships sustained through written communication.
But face-to-face dialogue is a particularly effective medium for (inter-)organisational learning, especially when participants are from different backgrounds
and SF authors. 13 These are only two of many examples of lively debate being occasioned by efforts to bring FTA METHODS to bear on issues that have already been the subject of influential FTA studies.
while not suppressing lively debate, and to support reflection on and learning from the process.
from the Science to the Social the social, ethical and economic aspects of the debate, Swindon, Economic and Social research Council, 2007 (available at http://www. esrc. ac. uk/ESRCINFOCENTRE/Images
However, the discussion about multiple stakeholders'participation in public policy and corporate decision making has received very little attention from the FTA COMMUNITY who have taken for granted that FTA ACTIVITIES are participative.
The paper has been structured on the discussion of governance around three pillars: sociocultural evolution, corporate industrial activity and government.
The later discussion intends to enable the FTA COMMUNITY to reflect on how FTA ACTIVITIES can support the move towards more democratic societies and the potential impacts of FTA in governance.
consensus conferences and strenuous efforts to increase the publics'understanding of science. All these procedures highlighted the breadth of the cascade of situations as they have evolved over the last 40 years.
economic and juridical decisions in a dialogue process with the political authorities. Governance and regulatory concepts imply a modified description of what regulation is and how it works, where the regulatory limits of state authority and the potential of society to influence
1. Participation by both men and women through freedom of association and expression on the one hand and an organised civil society on the other hand. 2. Consensus oriented resulting from an understanding of the historical, cultural and social contexts of a given society and community.
It requires different interests in society to reach a broad consensus on what is in the best interest of the whole community
and make decisions about them through constructive dialogue with regulators, the local community and activists.
it is developed the means by a firm to build a proper dialogue with stakeholders so that there is a real understanding of what needs are being
participation and inclusiveness, understanding of all points of view (consensus-oriented), responsiveness which is related to effectiveness and efficiency,
and initiatives at the global level have been taken. 7. Discussion: FTA in support of new forms of governance Governance methods and systems have not been institutionalised on a broad and continuous basis possibly
Rather than just opening dialogue between science and society solely in terms of environmental or health impacts, there is a need to tackle broader social concerns such as ethical and cultural values, power relations,
It then becomes critical to understand how FTA practices can support the need to choose which social issues to pursue strategically on a participative, consensus-oriented and inclusive way
and produces issue-specific knowledge through dialogue, creating joint learning between users and producers, knowledge generation and shared sense of commitment.
'To do so a vivid debate took place in trying to grasp the C. Cagnin et al./
Appendix A The following diagrams set out the metaphor that underlies the discussion in the text.
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 289 References 1 D. Large, Participation and representation, A Review of Sustainability Here and now, in part of The Great Debate:
A Stakeholder Approach, Pitman, Boston, 1984.18 O. Saritas, L. Pace, S. Stalpers, Stakeholder participation and Dialogue in Foresight, From Oracles to Dialogue:
universities and business enterprises would it not be a useful addition to benefit from this expertise by developing a focused strategic discussion based around their experiences i e
The originators of this survey used the responses to lead a plenary discussion at the 2008 FTA Conference,
''van Notten et al. 11 and Mendonc¸a et al. 12 provide further discussion and examples on wild cards and shocks.
There was a general consensus among all respondents around the globe that around 65%of the drivers will have high impact
A strong consensus is observed among the Australasian respondents that the majority of the discontinuities will occur from Table 5 Examples of discontinuities.
Overall the many obviously very thoughtful responses and the depth and scope of imaginative thinking inherent in these responses suggest a robust series of discussions
but there seem to be emerging several instances of avenues that could benefit from further discussion,
Findings FTA APPROACHES create spaces where an effective dialogue between key players in different policy domains facilitates vision-building
and consensus-building for engineering major processes of transformation. Therefore sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges.
Thereby, they provide important insights to an epistemological debate that is based on the premise that qualitative and quantitative methods are hardly reconcilable.
Furthermore, FTA APPROACHES create spaces where an effective dialogue between key players in different policy domains facilitates vision-building
and consensus-building for engineering major processes of transformation. Therefore sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges.
Reflecting a broader discussion on the benefit and limits of combining different methods, it has to be noted that using numerical values to support decision-making may be preferred a procedure
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