Centre, Institute for Prospective and Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain b Center for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), SCN Quadra 2, Bloco A, Ed. Corporate
Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain; bcenter for Strategic Studies and Management (CGEE), SCN Quadra 2, Bloco A, Ed. Corporate Financial center, 11 andar, Sala 1102, CEP 70712-900, Brazil;
He is developing EU and national projects related to sustainable manufacturing, RTDI priority-setting and regional coordination as well as joint programming and also supporting policy-making through the early identification of weak signals of emerging issues.
Time for the EU to meet global challenges. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European union. http://ftp. jrc. es/EURDOC/JRC55981. pdf (accessed July 2012.
Bovet, D. M, . and J. A. Martha. 2000a. Value nets: Breaking the supply chain to unlock hidden profits.
Orienting EU innovation systems towards grand challenges and the roles that FTA can play. Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 140 52.
Second general conference of the specialization course, Brasilia. Losada, M. and E. Heaphy. 2004. The role of positivity and connectivity in the performance of business teams:
Proceedings of the fourth international Seville conference on futureorieente technology analysis, Seville, Spain. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
The systemic orientation was visible in the‘Russian doll'style of layered project structuure the project operated simultaneously on the layer of separate ICT applications, on the layer of ICT adoption in four fields (the experience
and information security), on the layer of four Nordic countries (Finland, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark) and on the layer of the Nordic region as a strategic entirety.
The second phase, the SWOT analysis, identified trends in the national ICT business and research environment in the four Nordic countries.
In the final research phase, the action workshop, a set of actions to be taken by the key players in the Nordic countries was depicted.
and compare the implications of the ICT applications in four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden).
Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Strategy Assessing the implications of the ICT applications in four Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway,
Creation of four context scenarios on the adoption of ICT in four Nordic countries Building system-level strategic
Huang a a School of management and Economics, Beijing Institute of technology, Beijing, China b Technology policy and Assessment Center, Georgia Institute of technology, Atlanta, GA,
Tingting Maa, Alan L. Porterb and Lu Huanga*aschool of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of technology, Beijing, China;
Our endeavours should be considered within the FTACONTEXT (see http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/).Over the years,
and Rossini (1985) developed a TDS for microcomputer technology in developing countries, spotlighting the importance of language barriers.
The US National science Foundation (NSF) shows forth on 42 of 1691 publications since 2009. The swiss NSF accounts for 35 of some 41 papers with Swiss funding;
Swedish funding similarly shows up for 42 papers, led by the Swedish Energy Agency. But the dominant funding source is NSFC (China) with 216 papers acknowledging its support.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 851 Figure 4. DSSC science overlay map.
Especially notable leaders are Swiss Federal Institute oftechnology, Lausanne (also appearing asepfl École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne,
US National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL) is second with 4780, but much reduced activity recently;
The swiss Federal Institute of technology is certainly the dominant single institution researching DSSCS. 4 Especially in recent years,
Cites share Cites share Pubs share Pubs share through 2008 2009 onwards through 2008 2009 onwards(%)CAS 6. 0 19.9 19.5 25.3 Swiss Federal Institute of technology (EPFL) 49.3
SCI tallies since 2009 have found China to be dominant with 440 papers including at least one Chinese author.
The next six countries are South korea (267), Japan (192), Taiwan (181), the USA (167), Switzerland (101), and India (81.
Such details can enrich cross-charting procedures to elucidate which key players (countries and institutions) currently pursue which priorities.
Notes on contributors Ying Guo is a faculty member in the School of management and Economics, Beijing Institute of technology of China.
Tingting Ma is a Phd candidate in Management Science and Engineering, Beijing Institute of technology of China.
Microcomputers in developing countries: Industrialization in the information age. International Journal of Applied Engineering Education 1, no. 5: 321 8. Scapolo, F.,A l. Porter,
and each country also has its own specific issues, for example rapid aging of the population or economic stagnation.
and many countries have shown a clear tendency to place special focus on science and technology policy in their innovation strategies.
and define priorities for the whole country. All the information from scenario building is dependent on each theme.
‘‘The BMBF Foresight process'',paper presented at the 3rd International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, October 16-17, Seville.
Strategic dialogues for research policy making in Germany Frauke Lohr, Sebastian Hallensleben and Amina Beyer-Kutzner Abstract Purpose The mere generation of foresight results is not sufficient in itself to influence research policy.
This paper aims to present such a process(‘‘strategic dialogue'')and illustrate it with recent examples from Germany.
Keywords Foresight, Strategic dialogue, Research policy, Stakeholder alignment, Scenario planning, Germany, Innovation, Strategic planning, Governance, Management Paper type Case study 1. The challenge of transferring foresight results Through research policy,
Given the crucial role of research output in the global competitiveness of countries, in securing employment and in reaching and setting benchmarks of innovation capability,
Result, Frankfurt, Germany. Sebastian Hallensleben is based at Solysis Ltd, Burgess Hill, UK. Amina Beyer-Kutzner is based at BMBF, Berlin, Germany.
However, the mere generation of foresight results is not sufficient in itself, even if the foresight process was designed
we illustrate the process with three examples from Germany and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research related to transferring results from foresight
and similar strategy processes into research policy making and research infrastructure creation. 2. Lessons from earlier work The challenge of transferring foresight results into strategic planning is well known in a business context.
Specifically with respect to research policy development in Germany, Meister and Oldenburg (2008) argues that both foresight and subsequent transfer activities have to be constructed as dialogue processes involving all relevant stakeholders.
With his summary of the key results of foresight activities in Germany in the early part of the last decade, he also illustrates once more their wide-ranging and interdisciplinary nature and hence the need for an active and carefully designed transfer to research policy making.
Table I their relevance to strategic dialogues for transferring the results of foresight activities and similar strategy processes into research policy development. 3. The situation in Germany To support research policy development the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research
and they show the application of this dialogue approach in a range of different situations. 5. 1 Strategic dialogue to transfer results from the BMBF Foresight process Strategic dialogues were conducted, for example, for focus areas from the latest BMBF Foresight process (German Federal Ministry
In addition, contact with three other German federal ministries was established. To transfer the results of the focus area‘‘Produzierenkonsumieren 2. 0''into activities,
and for involving the public (German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, 2010b). 5. 3 Strategic dialogue to develop a model for public private partnerships A third example of a successful strategic dialogue was the definition of a novel type of innovation cluster across academia and industry implemented as public private partnerships.
Through our work we have come to the conclusion that a carefully designed transfer of foresight results into research policy making would be beneficial in a wide range of situations, not just in Germany but also within the EU and internationally.
''paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, May 12-13, Seville. Fisher, R. and Ury, W. 1991), Getting to Yes Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In, Penguin, New york, NY.
Experience from the German BMBF-Foresight process, ''paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, May 12-13, Seville.
Welp, M.,de la Vega-Leinert, A.,Stoll-Kleemann, S. and Jaeger, C. C. 2006),‘Science-based stakeholder dialogues:
It could be argued that the main narrative of EU Research, Technological development and Innovation (RTDI) programmes hitherto has focused on economic competitiveness in an increasingly globalised business environment.
themes in achieving a more sustainable EU and planet. The seven challenges identified by the EU's SD strategy are:
1. climate change and clean energy; 2. sustainable transport; 3. sustainable consumption and production; 4. conservation and management of natural resources;
The Lund Declaration of 2009 1 (the outcome of a conference on‘‘New worlds New Solutions''held under the Swedish Presidency of the EU) crystallised several important aspects related to the mobilisation of scientific,
and trends for the country's research and enterprise base 2. The project, ‘‘Review of Global Drivers and Trends from a National Perspective in a Global context'',was a four-month exercise that sought to‘‘to develop a catalogue of global drivers and trends,
I. A further important aspect of this stage was to begin to identify how other countries were responding to global challenges.
and trends were as relevant to Ireland (as they might be to other, larger countries).
globally mobile investors and concerns within the country regarding the scale and constant need for significant research investments Does Ireland have in place the enabling mechanisms
it emerged as a significant(‘‘grand'challenge for the country's research and innovation system. The participants that were involved in the consultative events recognised the significance of certain drivers (around
Ireland‘‘punches above its weight''in international arenas achieving a strong reputation as an independent country with good governance and respect for its global commitments and partnerships.
Its strong institutional and governance arrangements are an advantage as a small, smart country. However, Ireland is challenged in maintaining this position as the smaller countries become increasingly marginalised within multilateral frameworks
and where the traditional political and governance models are being disrupted. How can Ireland maintain its standing
The small country context was an important dimension throughout the exercise and in constructing grand challenges.
and meaning of grand challenges for individual countries. 5. 1 Scale the European versus the small country context European-scale discourse can sometimes unwittingly neglect the specificities of national contexts especially the smaller country contexts.
For research and innovation policy, the implications of grand challenges may be quite different in smaller country contexts particularly those that are on the periphery of Europe.
There were other instances where thematic emphases may be very different from the European to the small country scale (e g. certain dimensions of security.
The marginalisation of Ireland (as a small country) within multilateral frameworks was identified as a challenge by participants in the exercise.
''and‘‘grand societal challenges''at least in the way the terms have been used to date in the EU. In The irish case,
Notes 1. See www. se2009. eu/polopoly fs/1. 8460! menu/standard/file/lund declaration final version 9 july. pdf 2. The author was a member of the team that was appointed to carry out the work on behalf of Forfa's. The team was made of CM International (lead contractor) and the Centre for Research in Futures and Innovation
http://register. consilium. europa. eu/pdf/en/06/st10/st10917. en06. pdf Georghiou, L. and Cassingena-Harper, J. 2011),‘From priority-setting
S&t&i priorities for the Russian natural resources sector Sergey Shashnov and Anna Sokolova Abstract Purpose This paper aims to analyse three individual foresight projects referring to the natural resources sector in Russia, their interconnection
Originality/value For the first time the paper presents an analysis of Russian foresight projects connected to the natural resources area and an evaluation of their influence on policy decision making.
Keywords Priority-setting, Russia, Natural resources, Long term planning, Foresight project planning, Innovation, Technology led strategy, Sciences Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction In recent years
technology and innovation (S&t&i) priorities have become an integral part of government policy making in almost all developed countries,
However, approaches and techniques used to identify priority areas for S&t&i development in various countries strongly depend on local peculiarities, socioeconomic policy objectives, the availability of natural resources, the state of the environment,
1995), Norway (Nordic Innovation Centre, 2007), Canada (National research council Canada, 2005) and other developed countries have accumulated significant experience with such projects.
National research University Higher School of economics, Moscow, Russia. This study was implemented in the framework of the Programme of Fundamental Studies of the Higher School of economics in 2011. been active in the development of long-term strategies for the rational use of natural resources and in the sphere of environmental protection.
Russia possesses significant reserves of minerals. Over a third of the world's natural gas, coal and iron ore reserves are located in the Russian Federation,
along with about one tenth of the world's oil, and many other mineral resources. Russian fresh water reserves amount to 20 per cent of the total global stock;
Russia also has significant forest resources. However, the Russian economy still remains resource-oriented. Mining of natural resources generates more than 20 per cent of the total output,
while the mineral resources sector's share of total Russian exports is as high as 80 per cent (Russian Federation, 2009).
All Russian hydropower plants together generate just 20 per cent of the electricity produced in the country (Russian Energy Strategy:
2030,2009. The natural resources sector includes numerous players (federal and regional government agencies, public and private companies and industrial enterprises, R&d centres, environment protection organisations,
and the general public). Their relations with each other are affected often by their opposing interests, which given the weak legal system engenders many problems.
Russian companies that are active in the natural resources sector routinely display high emissions figures several times higher than in other countries.
Accordingly, a difficult environmental situation has been developing in Russia over the decades, which negatively affects the quality of life, health and life expectancy.
Currently about 40 million Russians live in unfavourable environmental conditions and one million reside in regions where the level of pollution is dangerous for health.
of which include the low level of innovation activities of Russian companies, an underdeveloped innovation infrastructure, inefficient legislation, etc.
Within the implementation of this foresight study it was realised that S&t priorities should be complemented by innovative priorities for corresponding development of the Russian management system in the field of natural resources,
the identification of innovative priorities for the development of the Russian management system. So, in Russia, three foresight projects related to the topic of natural resources were conducted.
They were interconnected and the results of the earlier projects were used in the subsequent studies to accomplish the overall objective,
i e. to prepare recommendations for shaping Russian national S&t and innovation policy in the sphere of natural resources and environmental protection.
which would contribute to increasing the growth rate of the economy, environmental safety and the competitiveness of Russian companies,
and interviews were conducted with heads of project teams. 3. Russian FS approaches 3. 1 National S&t Foresight:
2025 (FS1) The aim of this foresight study was the identification of the most important and well-developed S&tareas in Russia in the long-term perspective.
B identification of R&d areas that are most important and promising to Russia; B estimation of possible timeframes for major S&t breakthroughs;
B evaluation of the position of Russian R&d centres in the international S&t landscape; and B determination of the most relevant steps to be taken to support the development and commercialisation of science and technology.
B improvement of the structure and increasing competitiveness of the Russian economy; and B contribution to Russia's national security, including environmental security.
The final conclusions made in the course of the study were used to develop and implement the federal goal-oriented programme‘‘S&t priorities for Development of the Russian S&t Sector in 2007-2012''.
''This programme was structured in accordance with the identified S&t priorities, and specific projects were selected on the basis of their relevance to the identified critical technologies.
More than 2, 000 experts from 40 Russian regions took part in the Delphi survey, representing all leading R&d and industrial centres.
B importance to Russia; B expected timeframe for developing technological solutions; B current level of Russian R&d;
B world leader country; B support measures for Russian R&d; B expected timeframes for commercialisation and implementation;
B support measures for commercialisation; and B possible results. As the result of this foresight exercise a large database of promising S&tareas was created, with integrated scores for all selected criteria.
Russian experts considered the most important topics in this area to be accelerated‘‘Technologies for and efficient recovery of damaged lands, landscapes and biodiversity,
''‘Technologies for environmentally safe processing and recycling of consumer and industrial waste''and‘‘Geoinformation database of forest fires in Russia, allowing monitoring of fire situations in real time''.
and wastes 3 Geoinformation database of forest fires in Russia, allowing monitoring of fire situations in real time (number of fires
Calculated as (No. of‘‘At the level of leading countries*100 þ no: of‘‘Somewhat behind*50 þ no:
and forecasting the future state of the environment, based on Russian meteorological and natural resources satellites (2015-2020);
and appropriate innovative product groups with the potential to significantly increase the competitiveness of Russian natural resources companies.
technological roadmaps for several high-technology market segments where Russia has the possibility to improve its positions were developed,
At the same time, the FS2 results showed that the Russian management system in the natural resources area could be more effective
Probably the only way to bridge this gap is to identify new innovation priorities for the Russian management system;
the identification of such priorities was the objective of FS3. 3. 3 Innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector (FS3) Innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector for the period until 2025
‘‘Innovation priorities''in the above study were considered to be major activities in the Russian natural resources sector's management system that would contribute to achieving the RF S&t priorities and solving the main problems in the area.
The innovation priorities until 2025 for the development of the Russian natural resources sector was developed on the basis of identification of the most important problems and challenges regarding the natural resources sector's management system and necessary conditions for S&t development.
two main criteria were used for the identification of innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector, i e.:
''For this task implementation it was suggested to that amendments were made to the Ecological Doctrine of the Russian Federation
(i e. to key factors of environmental degradation in Russia, the main principles of state ecological policy, the list of strategic approaches of natural environment restoration,
as well as corresponding amendments to the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, the Land Code of the Russian Federation and the federal law‘‘About Environmental Protection''.
priorities for the Russian natural resources sector. FS3 was interrelated not with FS1 and FS2 structurally, but the results of FS2 showed (on the basis of the expert survey) that the Russian management system in the natural resources area needed to be much more effective
and that this was preventing S&t development. FS3 was initiated on the basis of these results and commissioned by the RF Ministry of Natural resources and Ecology (because the focus of FS3 is in the the sphere of responsibility of this Ministry).
B key areas to strengthen positions of Russian producers in global markets on the basis of technological advantages;
B estimates of the level of Russian R&d vis-a vis the world leaders for major S&t areas;
The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends, whereas the technology roadmaps for perspective product groups created a background for particular measures aimed at development S&t.
Russia also needs to implement relevant institutional changes, and Table III The interrelation of the projects Research focus Main results Questions for further investigation FS1 The evaluation of topics by the following criteria:
importance, current level of Russian R&d, support measures and others A large database of promising S&tareas, estimated by nine criteria by 2, 000 experts.
of markets and segments where Russia can improve its position Detailed description of chosen groups The most important innovation projects The most important research projects In particular,
the results showed that the Russian management system in the natural resources area is not now really effective
and this is preventing S&t development Innovation priorities for the Russian management system in the natural resources area, which should create conditions for S&t development
and promote solving the key problems identified in the FS2 framework FS3 An identification of innovation priorities for the Russian management system in natural resources until 2030 The innovation priorities
In the framework of this study proposals to amend the relevant RF Ministry of Natural resources strategic documents (for example, Ecological Doctrine of the Russian Federation, Civil Code of the Russian Federation, Land Code of the Russian Federation
Also the RF Geologic Strategy and Water Strategy were developed on the basis of the innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector.
The innovation and S&t priorities for the Russian natural resources sector were identified in the framework of three connected foresight projects.
because we could not assess to what extent the project materials were in the development of these documents Indirect FS2 The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends,
Ecological Doctrine of the Russian Federation, Civil Code of the Russian Federation, Land Code of the Russian Federation, federal law‘‘About Environmental Protection,
Also the RF Geologic Strategy and Water Strategy were developed on the basis of the innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector Direct (high) VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 51
assessed the current level of Russia's S&t development, and the country's international S&t co-operation potential through the development of a national innovation system.
The study significantly extended the information basis for policy-making, which however could not be used directly in decision-making.
the most promising markets (and their segments) for Russian natural resources companies. Assessment of personnel, financial and technological requirements,
On the basis of this project recommendations for Russian S&t policy which include the most important research
and corresponding tasks for improving the management system the Russian natural resources sector, which would contribute to its innovation-based development
OPEC Secretariat (2010),‘OPEC long-term strategy'',OPEC, Vienna. PAGE 52 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2006),‘Next generation networks:
Russian Energy Strategy: 2030 (2009), Russian Energy Strategy: 2030, Russian Federation, Moscow. Russian Federation (2009), On the Current State and Utilisation of Mineral resources of the Russian Federation in 2009, State Report, Russian Federation, Moscow.
Sokolov, A. 2008a),‘Science and technology foresight in Russia: results of a national Delphi'',3rd International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 16-17 october, Seville, Book of Abstracts.
Sokolov, A. 2008b),‘Russian critical technologies 2015'',Collection of EFMN Briefs, Part 1, Directorate-General for Research Co-operation, European commission, Brussels. Sokolov, A. 2009),‘The future
of science and technology: the Delphi study results'',Foresight, Vol. 10 No. 3 (in Russian. United nations Industrial Development Organization (2007), Technology foresight Summit Workbook, United nations Industrial Development Organization, Budapest.
University of Joensuu (2010),‘Foresight for the development of forest sector in Finland till 2020'',Future Forum on Forests of Finland.
Future challenges to the Finnish Forest Sector, University of Joensuu and Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of Finland, available at:
www. metsafoorumi. fi Further reading Georghiou, L.,Cassingena Harper, J.,Keenan, M.,Miles, I. and Popper, R. 2008), The Handbook of Technology foresight:
Concepts and Practice, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham. Corresponding author Anna Sokolova can be contacted at: avsokolova@hse. ru VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 53 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
South korea and China, and used as sources for future technology themes analysis. A standard mapping taxonomy based on international patent classification system was used to map out the technology concept described in these future technology themes.
and the results among selected countries are cross-compared and visualized in an aggregated view.
Findings By this standard mapping taxonomy and structured analysis, future technology themes in strategic foresight reports from countries in focus are mapped systematically
Similarities and discrepancies for prospecting the future technology trajectory among these countries are identified also. Research limitations/implications It would be a significant contribution
This research may help to solve the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies by providing a consistent classification framework to make comparison and aggregation of future technology options from different countries/regions.
Therefore, many countries not only use foresight as a tool to improve anticipatory intelligence but also use it as a priority-setting tool.
In some Asian countries such as Japan, South korea and China, foresight has been taken as a tool for priority setting or R&d agenda setting.
Also, China has used the result of foresight for selection of their critical technologies. Even in some small countries in Europe like Austria
foresight results have been used for the implementation of policy measures (Aichholzer, 2001. Competitive intelligence is a systematic way to collect
In Delphi Austria, an analysis of the Japanese, German, French, British Delphi studies was conducted to separate
In addition, after the Delphi Austria foresight process, the results of the Austria Technology Delphi were reclassified also according to the standard classifications of industry
which is accepted an EU industrial classification of industry. Therefore, the standard classification framework provides an easy way to take an aggregated
In the foresight experience of small countries such as the foresight activity conducted in Austria named‘‘Delphi Austria,
and niches within technology trends where Austria might find opportunities to achieve leadership within the next 15 years (Aichholzer, 2001).
and then specializing in small segments of the world market become the main focus of a small country.
and interactions. 2. Methodological approach 2. 1 Delphi method background Delphi was developed in the 1950s by the US RAND Corporation
Meanwhile, the communication effect of Delphi studies and the value of the process are acknowledged also. 2. 2 Basic information for the scanned Delphi topics The Delphi topics used for sustainable energy are chosen from foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China.
I Basic information for scanned foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China Japan South korea China Report Title The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey Delphi Analysis Prospect of future society
& future technology of Korea-challenges and opportunities (Korea 2030) China's Report of Technology foresight 2004 Report year 2005 2005 2004 Project promoter/initiator Ministry of Education
Also, survey results of Delphi topics are collective intelligence from the expert interaction of scanned countries
Table II Overall procedures for mapping of Delphi topics Procedure Description Step 1 Collect Delphi topics from foresight reports of Japan, South korea and China Step 2
‘‘time of international realization before 2020''for South korea and all Delphi topics from China, are used as the main target for analysis and for comparison.
In China, all the topics were regarded as having realization before the year 2020. Table V summarizes the realization time distribution of Delphi topics in Japan,
South korea and China. 3. 1 Mapping technology interactions in Delphi topics 3. 1. 1 Summary result of the mapping in three countries.
South korea and China is shown in Figure 2. The y axis denotes the source technology and the x axis denotes the application technology.
South korea or China reports are labeled with symbols. Different symbol represent different meanings. For example,‘‘O''means the technology interaction can be identified simultaneously in Japan (JP), South korea (KR) and China (CN),
'''means the technology interaction can be identified only in Japan (JP) and China (CN), and so on. Interactions within the technology field are shown not in Figure 2. By viewing the union result of the mapping from the application technology side, conventional energy technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
energy) is a hot technology application before the year 2020, where the possible source technologies comprise technologies 7 (IT methods for management),
Technology 19 (Basic materials chemistry) is prospected also by these three countries as second hot application technology before the year 2020,
and the possible Table V Realization time distribution of Delphi topic in Japan, South korea and China Before 2020 2021-2030 After 2031 Time horizon Topics Ratio (percent
0 0 China 83 100 0 0 0 0 VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 61 source technologies are derived from technologies 1
The overlapping result for technology interaction mapped by the Delphi topics from the three countries can also be seen in Figure 2. The overlapped interactions identified among the three countries include source technology 12 (Control) to application technology
technology 15 (Biotechnology) to technology 1 Figure 2 Summary result of the mapping in three countries PAGE 62 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 (Electrical machinery
Table VI Keywords of Delphi topics that link with the overlapping result of the mapping in the technology interaction Source technology Application technology Country Key words in Delphi topics 12
new grid technology/micro grids/stability of distributed generation South korea Distributed electric power/solar power China Ultra-large scale/power system security and defense;
bio-energy/battery technology China Biofuel; biomass gasification power generation 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Large capacity combined cycle power generation
ocean energy/seawater desalination China Integrated gasification combined cycle 35 (Civil engineering) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Large-area thin-film solar cells;
conversion efficiency South korea Solar and fuel cell power system China Hydropower river basin development with complex conditions; large and very large grid-connected/photovoltaic power plant development in desert 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) 32 (Transport) Japan Polymer electrolyte fuel cells
hybrid power system/vehicle use China Hybrid power system VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 63 As shown in Figure 3, technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
3. 1. 4 Mapping result of China. In China, 37 of the total 83 mapped Delphi topics (44.6 percent) show only interaction within a single technology.
Interaction across technologies can be deduced from the remaining 46 Delphi topics, and the deduced interactions are demonstrated by a directional social network analysis (SNA) in Figure 4. In total 50 linkages are identified from these 46 Delphi topics.
Technology 12 (Control) is a hot source technology in China. The possible application technologies comprise technologies 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus), 32 (Transport) and 35 (Civil engineering),
3. 2 Mapping interactions across technologies from the top 25 percent important Delphi topics in each country Since the foresight results of these three countries were intended to be used for reference in priority setting
it may therefore be strategically important to identify what kind of technologies are rated as important for these three countries;
Therefore, the top 25 percent important Delphi topics before 2020 are selected according to the foresight result in each country,
The analyzed results for Japan, South korea and China are demonstrated in Figures 6-8. In Figure 6 (Japan's result),
Most of the interactions are related to application technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, Figure 5 Technology interactions across WIPO technologies for Delphi topics from China PAGE 66
''The mapping distribution of the Delphi topics of China shows that about half of the important topics are interacted self (Figure 8;
technologies in top 25 percent important Delphi topics from China VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 69 technology of solar cells,
''In summary, by mapping the important topics from the Delphi survey results of Japan, South korea and China,
In mapping of China's important topics, almost half show interactions within a single technology,
Also, technology 23 (Chemical engineering) is emphasized especially in China's important topics, and is to be used as a source technology to technology 24 (Environmental technology).
This technology linkage reflects that the challenges faced by China, i e. the environmental issues caused by the mass use of conventional energy such as coal,
and associating the future technology themes described in strategic foresight reports from selected countries with a state of the-art-the art technology classification system.
and discrepancies in future technology options among countries are analyzed successfully, and important technology trajectories for each country are highlighted specifically
and compared. In summary, there are some operational and methodological benefits that can be provided by the integrative analytic method of this study.
the mapping and comparison of future technology options from different countries/regions become more effective. Also, the method combines both the advantage of strategic technology foresight and competitive technology intelligence, by utilizing the results derived from the former as a target for analysis
and some of the technology interactions are prospected differently by these three countries. The difference in technology options or prospects may be derived from the different context of energy use
and specific intentions that these countries want to achieve. Therefore, regional characteristics may bias the results of the research.
or development priorities is different in each country, the technology intelligence demonstrated by this research still needs to be monitored
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