total amount of electric energy generated. Total fossil: total amount of electric energy generated using fossil fuels as the energy source.
Total non-fossil: total amount of electric energy generated using non-fossil fuels as the energy source (renewables and nuclear.
Capacity: total installed power generation capacity. Price: average price of electricity on the central grid.
the future generation of energy will not be very sustainable. That is, in most cases, the fraction of fossil based generation in the final year is higher than 0. 6. Thus,
Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System User's Manual, Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy, WASHINGTON DC, 2009.42 P. G. Cowell, R. Gerrard, D
and energy transitions. Next to this research, he also has an interest in scientometrics and techmining.
Rev. 25 (1995) 40.53 A. Lovins, Soft Energy Paths: Towards a Durable Peace, Friends of the Earth International, San francisco, 1977.231 pp..
most noticeably but by no means exclusively at European level where societal challenges such as health, energy and food security, transport, climate and resources and innovative and secure societies became first a part of the ERA debate 10 and subsequently a central
(what we are doing on energy etc.).Similar difficulties are encountered by funding agencies and their parent administrations.
various energy action plans have many similarities to foresight, both with regard to the processes and results.
other factors, particularly the Parliament's energy agreement, have contributed significantly to the prioritisation process. The key actors in this phase were the five negotiators from each of the five parties that were behind the Globalisation Strategy.
but the most important methodological Box 1. Final priorities in the Research2015 catalogue 34 Energy, climate and the environment Energy systems of the future Future climate and climate adaption Competitive environment
Theme Budgets in millions of DKKS 2009 2010 Energy, climate and environment Energy systems of the future 190 455 Future climate and climate adaptation 43 0 Climate
At the end of 2009, the first three KICS in the areas of climate change (Climate KIC), energy (KIC Innoenergy) and Information and Communication Technologies (EIT ICT Labs;
such as‘‘The sand motor'',Energy from water, ''and‘‘The most beautiful and safe delta''60.
The growing energy demand and uncerttaint in energy supply is not only related to the scarcity of some of these resources,
transporting and producing energy using all thinkable resources), to our potential to change our way of living (behaviour) and to the geopolitical developpment (energy demand of developing giant economies and tensions about distribution of scarce resources).
This issue not only requires a transdiscipliinar approach, but it also requires a policy that transcends several policy areas and the borders of countries.
Energy forecasts using a‘Roundless'approach to running a Delphi study. Foresight: The Journal of Future Studies, Strategic thinking and Policy, 9 (2), 27 35.
wood processing, paper, printing, glass/stone/clay, metal, metalworking, watches, other manufacturing, energy; traditional service industries:
and the future of complex themes, such as climate change, demography, biodiversity, bioethanol, energy efficiency etc. In the last three years, CGEE has conducted some relevant national strategic foresight exercises,
Table 1. Theme Objectives Focus Initial phase Main phase Commitment phase Energy Establishment of R&d priority agenda,
considering existing challenges to Brazilian energy matrix in next 20 years Technologies for generation of electric energy, fuel supply and energy transmission and distribution, distributed generaatio and storage, planning
energy, information resources and environment, populatiio and health, materials etc..The objectives are to produce groundbreaking research that addresses importaan scientific issues concerning national economic and social development.
1354 1648 1900 Agriculture science 100 86 84 105 109 111 145 170 Energy science 77 68 90 84 95
by providing techniica solutions for overcoming problems such as scarcity of resources, provision of energy, and environmental degradation.
Technological generatiion diffusion and utilization are at the core of the analysis. Comparing the energy innovation systems of Germany, Sweden and The netherlands,
Jacobsson, S. and Bergek, A. 1998)‘ Transforming the energy sector: the evolution of technological systems in renewable energy technology',Industrial and Corporate Change, 13: 815 49.
Kaiser, R. and Prange, H. 2004)‘ The reconfiguration of national innovation systems the example of German biotechnoology'Research policy, 33: 395 408.
Finding a solution to the problem of scarce energy resources, for example, requires not only surpassing long-established vested interests in certain resources but also a change in the behaviour, norms and values of societies.
and has formulated ambitious policy objectives for climate change, energy security, demographic ageing and resource efficiency. At the same time the Europe 2020 Strategy notes that a partnership approach should extend to EU committees, to national parliaments and national, local and regional authorities,
The first ones were created in the areas of climate change, energy and informmatio and communications technologies. In 2011, the JRC-IPTS supported the European Institute of technology to identify potential priority areas for new KICS from 2013.
Social and environmental challenges deal with the causes and consequences of issues such as climate change, food and energy security and the ageing society,
T.,Carrillo Hermosilla, J.,Loikkanen, T. and van der Have, R. 2009) Governance of energy system transition:
this includes water, food, energy, ecosystems, materials..Global environmental change: from oceans to ecosysteem to the cryosphere and atmosphere, the forecasts are consistent in suggesting broad changes with major impacts on society over the coming two decades..
References Beddington, J. 2009)‘ Food, energy, water and the climate: A perfect storm of global events?'
and communiccatio technologies (ICT) is very different from the long-term of transport or energy infrastructure),
including technical building codes and quality standards for energy consumption, safety and health. Because the regulations are not always consistenntl coordinated between different levels of government,
Building owners and users do not have the same incentives to improve building performmanc in relation to, for example, energy efficiency (World Business Council for Sustainable development 2009.
focusing on the questions of energy price and availability. The scarcity of water is an important issue,
new solutions, convergence, disruptions Enabling technologies Energy-efficiency requirements, energy price and availability; Scarcity of water; Population growth;
Energy management systems (EMS; Sensor technologies Product model technologies integrates building in urban infrastructure; Energy harvesting HVAC;
User-enabled energy management systems; Self-powered wireless sensors Cost-efficiency Customer-driven, flexibility, accessibility MARKETS:
Pricing values building performance over its life-cycle; System and sub-system integrators; Performance based regulations; Green building standards go mainstream in new constructions;
Low-energy concepts; Distributed building services systems (e g. heating, air conditioning; Separate solutions for design, building, and operation;
Zero energy concepts; Distributed building services systems (e g. cooling, air conditioning, heating; Integrated user interface for all controls of building services;
Positive energy concepts (e g. building as a power plant; Distributed energy generation and harvesting; Inconspicuous and adjustable user interfaces;
Virtual spaces that enable life-cycle customization Advanced materials; Energy efficient lighting solutions (e g. LED) High performance insulating materials Product model technologies linking design, building, and operation;
Real-time energy management systems; Sensor networks and ubiquitous sensing Nanostructured materials; Low-exergy technologies renewable sources, energy storage;
Energy efficient, flexible lighting solutions (e g. OLED) Figure 3. Transformation roadmap of green and intelligent buildings in Victoria, Australia. 184.
assessment and certification services, low-energy concepts and distributed building services systems (e g. heating and air conditioning.
zero energy concepts, distributed building services systems (e g. for cooling, air conditioning and heating), integrated user interface for all controls of building services,
performance contracting and performance-based insuraances In the long-term the more emergent solutions are positive energy concepts, e g.‘
‘building as a power plant',distributed energy generation and harvesting, adjustable user interfaces and virtual spaces that enable life-cycle customization. 4. 2. 4 Key enablers.
A further enabler is energy management systems (EMS) that are also being integrated into the overall building design.
In the long term, the use of low-energy technologies and energy efficient, flexible lighting solutions (e g.
energy harvesting HVACS and user-enabled EMS. Innovation policy roadmapping. 185 5. Case study 2: Roadmap of environmentally sustainable ICT, Finland 5. 1 Background The second case study is a roadmap of an emerging systemic field:
Economic incentives Increasing prices of energy and raw materials No regulation or economic incentives governmental activities do not encourage the utilization of sustainable ICTS Systemic issues:
Policies for smart energy; Policies for lifecycle efficient production ACTOR-ORIENTED POLICIES: Policies to enable voluntary citizen actions on environmentally sustainable ICT;
small-scale energy production User-generated new green ICT services Agile manufacturing: Integrated industrial production and easily configurable processes Intelligent consumer solutions,
accessible and economical energy generation (using renewablles) distribution and consumption both in households and business/industry.
Intelligent transportation systems and remote collaboration technologies have reduced unnecessary traffic and minimised the energy usage of transportation in general.
The increasing price of energy and raw materials is also a significant driver. In the long term, drivers other than just climate change will play a larger role globally.
The second type of systemic policy concerns smart energy. In this, smart metering and sensor network-based subutility energy measurements play a key Present Medium term Long term Key technologybaase solutions Vision Basic automatic meter reading (AMR) maturing Present
Medium term Long term Preliminary solutions for automatic recycling Old meters replaced by AMRENAABLE ones High-end videoconferencing solutions
i e. producing different products, such as water and energy, same facility New ICT-based tools and processes for the design and operation of factories Digitalized production processes, like virtual prototyping Intelligent products with life cycle management modules
management solutions based on robotics Distributed small-scale energy production Remote collaboration products Enabling technologies Methods and processes for environmental impact assessment of products and services,
and sensor technologies could result in more elaborate energy consumpptio information, from both temporal and load profile perspectives.
The new energy consumption informattio could enable novel business models and the provisiio of new digital services for diverse stakeholders, such as:
demand forecasting for energy companies, energy performmanc benchmarking for building operators, dynamic pricing and energy consumption monitoring for individual residents.
In the future, systems will be integrated towards a smart grid concept that enables distributed, small-scale energy generation. This also requires new energy market players that take the responsibility for aggregating the distributed energy resources to the grids.
The third type of systemic policies is policies for life-cycle efficient producttion for example factory facilities to produce several different types of products
and the adoption of digitalized production processes. The emergence of life-cycle oriented policies is linked to the policies on information disclosure
transparency and security. The second set of policies is oriented actor policies. The first of these is to enable voluntary citizen actions on environmmentall sustainable ICT,
A considerable portion of the energy is generated and distributed in buildings or at the neighbourhood level.
Distributed small-scale energy production based on renewabble is emerging. Remote collaboration services utilize virtual and augmented reality.
A considerable portion of the energy is generated in a distributed manner in buildings or at the neighbourhood level
using mainly renewable energy sources. Remote collaboration solutions provide a virtual presence, integrating physical and virtual worlds into a single seamless user experience. 188.
and a smart energy supply. There are advanced identificatiio and recognition technologies for waste management and recycling.
Web technologies (web 3. 0) are utilized in both energy consumption monitoring and remote collaboraatio solutions. In the long term, advanced modelling, optimization and artificial intelligence methods will enable intelligent products, recycling and energy grid solutions.
Smart grids with controllable distributed energy resources will enable high penetrations of intermittent or non-controllable renewable generation and distributed generation.
They benefit from diverse ICT solutions, varying from cloud computing to communication technologies. 3d internet technologies will enable novel remote collaboration solutions
Innovation policy roadmapping. 189 Eerola, A. and Loikkanen, T. 2009) Governance and Research of Nordic Energy system Transition-Summary Report of the Gorenest Project, VTT Research Notes 2505.
2009) Energy efficiency in Buildings. Transforming the Market. Geneva: World Business Council for Sustainable development. Weber, M.,Kubeczko, K.,Kaufmann, A. and Grunewald, B. 2009)‘ Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis:
and European Industrial Initiatives and the European Energy Research Alliance in the field of energy. 13.
the vast majority of people appear to be vulnerable to social and economic instability and hostility due to the economic recession, lack of fresh water, shortages of food and energy, climate change, regional conflicts,
The aim of the exploratory scanning approach is to identify a long list of signals that are precursors for emerging issues only demarcated by the policy domain selected (e g. healthcare or energy.
or seeking and providing new possibilities for new energy technologies and infrastructurres However, within a real bottom-up approach,
Within the SESTI project, a number of foresight reports in the field of energy and healthcare were processed with text-mining.
when the fields are specified and the scanning starts from well-defined fields such as energy, conservation or science and policy (cf.
Three thematic workshops on cognitive enhancement, energy and health were organised. The participants were policy-makers and experts with a broad view of the domains being considered.
Czaplicka-Kolarz, K.,Stanczyk, K. and Kapusta, K. 2009)‘ Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector developmeen in Poland till 2030.
or energy, health and cognitive enhancement (Amanatidou et al. 2012). Dedicated centres have been established to provide horizontal support for government departments (e g.
demography, migration and health. economy, trade and financial flows. environment, energy, climate change and agriculture. research, innovation and (e)- education.
The last trend is the increasing scarcity of natural resources and the vulnerability of the planet with the new geopolitics of energy,
climate/energy. health/nutrition. mobility. security. communication Interestingly, there seems to be a considerable level of consensus on the upcoming challenges.
How can growing energy demand be met safely and efficiently? were selected for further processing, others (e g.
energy: low-loss generation, distribution, and utilisation of electrical energy. health care: affordable health. environment: life-cycle production. mobility:
Energy: low-loss generation, distribution, and utilisation of electrical energy:(a) Supergrid: components and systems for DC coupling of generators, storage and consumers in the European African network (b) hybrid energy storage for cities:
integration of renewable energy, low-loss energy distribution and efficient use of energy by hybrid local network storage systems.
Health care: affordable health (a) SKIN HEAL: development and evaluation of new therapies for chronic skin diseases (b) Sterihealth:
energy consumption results in resource depletion The development of alternative energies, revival of nuclear energy, decreasing consumption of resources Climate change Slowing climate change through political processes, additional stress caused by population growth and wealth
Mobility 5 0 28 Health care 8 2 40 Energy 6 2 32 Security 1 0 13 Environment 5 1 24
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