The objective of encouraging other actors of the R&i system to initiate foresight activities has lead to many spinoof activities,
and studied the actors involved. The actors'understanding of strategy was included also in the analysis. Based on these analyses we argue that the impact of foresight exercises can be improved
if we have a better understanding of the traditions and new challenges faced by the research councils.
With its long-term perspective and its emphasis on connecting perspectives of different knowledge areas and different actors and stakeholders, foresight differs from corporate strategic planning,
Second, foresight exercises usually include actors in the priority discussion other than scientists. In some cases only industry representatives are included in the process
and suppliers of technology (i e. to influence the direction in which actors employ their resources);(
4) bringing new actors into the strategic debate; and (5) building new networks and linkages across fields, sectoor and markets,
this raises the question of what the various actors understand as strategy. Mintzberg and colleagues describe 10 schools of thought in strategy formation (Mintzberg, Ahlstrand, and Lampel 1998.
Foresight methods preferred under this approach focus on key actors and their viewpoints, for example stakeholder analyses and Delphi studies.
The focus is less on priority-setting as a result of a foresight process and more on knowledge creation and knowledge sharing by the various actors during the process;
and Qualitative interviews with the actors involved. Interviewees were typically central council members, civil servants from relevant governmental entities, process and other external consultannts industry representatives and representatives of non-governmental organisations (NGOS;
The actors involved in developing the plan were primarily members of the research council and employees of the Research Agency.
A significant amount of the interactions of these actors, including the decisions on how to advance in the process,
such as the Natural science Research council, received broad input from many different actors during the process of strategy development.
In contrast, apart from the actors mentioned above the research council members, the agency employees, the PR company and the authors of the vision papers only a few other persons were involved directly in the development of the Strategy plan 2003 2007.
2) Discussion of the proposal with the actors in the area at a hearing meeting;(
the intention of the programme managers and the core group of the strategy activities to interact with key actors in energy research.
and members of the core group knew many of the actors in the area. There was a relatively strong network, both informal and formal, between the programme management and the established industrial and research actors in the field of energy technology.
Demands for research were incorporated into strategy planning primarily through the energy systems'actors and industrial actors,
Technical research Council Energy research programme Actors involved Programme management Research council Research Agency (secretariat) Energy Authority Core group in strategy processes Research council Research Agency (secretariat+strategy
and information functions) Energy Authority System operators (PSO actors) Consultants Other actors involved in the process Scientists Communication consultants Ministry of Science
Upward Government minister, parliamentary politicians Downward Programme Management system operators (PSO actors) Energy production companies Energy-technology companies Scientists Approaches Key scope Science
descriptions of areas of strategy effort Analysis of areas (present state and actor views) Hearings Roadmaps (as follow-up) Duration of the process 15 months Approximately 18 months Legitimization
Actor dialogues, partnershhip consensus seeking Advisory Council for Energy Research Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 Foresight
Table 2. Rationales for strategy functions as reflected in the interviews with actors involved in the strategy process.
especially with respect to elements such as the legitimacy of discussing long-term future perspectives and the inclusion of actors.
and public research actors (including the FNR) with a view to enhancing the latter's accountability and efficiency.
better informed through the involvement of a wider set of actors taking into account longer-term futures.
It is important to bear in mind that the FNR is not the only important actor in the formulation of FNR programmes.
the existence of one (or few) dominant actors influenced the process right from the outset (Thorsteinsdottir 2000.
no re-alignment of resources in money or kind by other actors is knownto the authors.
Furthermore, the FNR and the other public research actors benefited from a strong presence in the national media,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 950 F. Glod et al. 4. The use of the term‘in-house'can refer to actors beyond the officials of a ministry
More recently, it has been recognised that the effectiveness of policy depends also on the involvement of a broader range of actors than those formally in charge of policy decisions.
Thus, a shared understanding of problems, goals and development options can be expected to emerge among those actors that have an important role to play in shaping the future.
This converging understanding of the issues at play is likely to contribute to an improved coherence of the distributed decisions of these actors
This interest is fuelled by the recognition that there is a‘translation problem'appareen in foresight approaches that predominantly rely on broad participatory processes, namely the translation of shared collective problem perceptions and visions into actual decisions of individuua actors and organisations.
therefore to initiate a process of strategic dialogue, bringing the growing number of diverse actors together in an open and self-critical debate.
establishing longer-term perspectives Ultimate Integrating new able actors in the community that is shaping an area of concern Counselling Immediate Making hidden agendas
transparent and open participatory governance processes Ultimate Influence on (research policy) agendas of actors, both public and private (as revealed, for instance,
'Each of the panels was chaired by a leading actor in urban RTI policy, coming either from a municipal department in charge of research agendas or from a public research funding agency in charge of research agendas,
It gave the key policy actors a clear and visible place in the process thus reducing the risk of counterproductive interference.
which for the first time ever brought several of the actors, experts and stakeholders together who had interacted hardly with each other before.
and facilitating actors outside the local government, but hardly any specific action has been started firmly yet that would build explicitly on the strategy.
as well as between local government and other research and innovation actors. 5. 3. Ultimate, long-term impacts Integrating suitable new actors in the community dealing with research and innovation is one of the key long-term impacts expected from foresight exercises.
In the Viennese case, the range of‘relevant actors'is limited rather and generally well known. Identifying‘new'actors is less the key point than integrating the known actors (e g. from neighbouring policy areas) into the debates about research and innovation.
First steps in this direction have been made that promise to be fruitful. Some longer-term impacts with respect to the counselling function of foresight can already be observed,
A second reason must be seen in the early involvement of key actors in researchaan innovation-related organisations of the City of Vienna.
Overall, the need to achieve consensus on immediate policy actions among the key local policy actors implied that several of the more controversial issues,
and relations between social actors relates to existing structures and could limit our openness to new insights.
and supplied with suggestions from other actors and where the politicians would like to be represented before the head of administration writes a proposal for visions and goals
and other actors'input too fantastic ideas will be erased! Visioning at the service of‘good'Practitioners
and of power. 7. The sociology of expectations is influenced by Science and Technology studies (STS) and Actor-Network-theory (ANT),
which collecctiv expectations are predefined by governmental actors who need to establish future visions firmly within the frame of existing governmental structures.
community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises. Futures 3: 45 65. Giddens, A. 1991.
(4) to bring new actors to R&i debates, or (5) to foster new networks (Georghiou and Keenan 2006).
characterised by numerous activities that have been initiated by several key actors of the R&i system (see, e g.
A focus area of competence was defined as a community of collaborating actors that (1) create
(i e. how strong a basis do Finnish actors have in the development and applicatiion of knowledge pertaining this focus area of competence?)
South korea and Canada and by the European commission. 8 One of the objectives of Finnsight was that it should encourage other actors of the R&i system to initiate foresight activities.
finding new applications in aligning actors around societal challenges (as described by Ko nno la et al.)
but also emphasises that this does not happen simply by bringing all the actors together. They map FTA METHODS in terms of the ways in
the funding and the strategic orientation of research and innovation have become a multilevel and multi-actor arrangement (e g. 21,22).
-the arena of programming in between the governmental and the research performing actors, deals with (1) translating the objectives of the former in specific scientific priorities
It can simply be considered that the actors of the programming arena have contributed to the tasks of the strategic orientation arena
but did not substitute the actors of this latter arena. 3. 2. Foresight objectives in the context of the three governance arenas We choose to focus our analysis on Foresight in connection with policy
/Futures 43 (2011) 232 242 235 objectives matrix (Table 2). In each cell of the matrix, the Foresights do not have the same actors involved, nor the same perspectives, nor the same objectives.
actors enter in a wide exploration, multiplying directions, and this divergence, as shown by recent biotechnology,
''and reflects the aims of many exercises to promote networking between actors in research and innovation.
in Section 3 we catalogue the emergence of structural foresight and in Section 4 its growing role as an instrument for aligning actors in innovation.
Another kind of structural foresight has an actor-focus. For example this was an explicit objective of an EU project
''A number of foresight exercises have addressed actors. Universities have been a particular focus. A review for the 2006 FTA conference noted an increasing use of scenarios for the sector in the face of a number of pressures
Havas has argued that the actor-based approach is only meaningful if it is embedded in an understanding of the research systems in
Foresight aligning actors in innovation policy Structural issues are also to the fore in an emerging important application of foresight
its use to align actors around innovation objectives. Simpler definitions of innovation present it as‘‘the successful exploitation of new ideas''.
and that a broader set of actors, including social scientists, need to be brought into the range of engaged stakeholders
Here the aimwas tomobilise actors and networks by reference to the research focus of their activities rather than to the location inwhich these activities are carried out.
J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 248 actors which are important for innovation.
Building views of the Nordic potentials in ICT development among key actors. Action proposals and policy recommendations.
An action plan for the Nordic key actors without a direct link to any decision process.
in order to be able to give action recommendations for the Nordic key actors. Still, a variety of views and opinions were considered
business actors and researchers from all EU Member States responded to the on-line Delphi study. In addition, more than 600 stakeholders in a various EU Member States were addressed in a series of national seminars.
Furthermore, the outputs are reused often''by actors not considered in the design phase. This systemic nature of foresight may have several ramifications
some actors have more access to sources of information and information-processing capabilities, and to the levers of power and capacities to commandandcontrol others.
and even the bestinfoorme and most powerful actors have to work with others to a limited extent in totalitarian regimes, to a huge extent in liberal democracies.)
Since these decisions and actions involve many actors, there is often need for concerted action, and shared visions of what futures to seek
Having key actors, or influential members from key organisations, engaged in the FTA PROCESS means that they can develop a much deeper understanding of the process itself,
The deeper understandingmeans that when contingencies change as they almost certainly will the participant will be able to assess their implications for the FTA conclusions and for the orientations of other actors.
The senior actorswill thus be primed to receive the detailed knowledge that is gained by the more junior actors.
to understanding and guiding the shared knowledge creation of key actors (industry, academia and policymakers) in the context of Nordic foresight activities 21,22.
When the FTA PROCESS involves a wide range of key actors in the case of the Nordic H2 energy foresight coming from several countries there are special challenges confronted in shared knowledge creation (even in agreeing upon which of Bell's‘‘posits''to explore
Experts (engineers, designers, social analysts, political actors) are seen as possessing particularly valued-and sometimes privileged knowledge.
The analysis focuses on the formal and informal actors involved in decision making and in implementing them as well as the formal,
7. 1. FTA for public decision making Actors affected by innovation processes ought to be involved more in technological development,
what kinds of governance is needed to permit actors external to the innovation processes to become more actively involved in technological development,
FTA can fulfil its role of supporting actors in society in shaping a common future based on a shared vision among all concerned.
and complex factors involving diverse actors that lead and cause societal change. What is often apparent is that most stakeholders are relatively powerless alone to affect the direction
familiar bases for economic value, international conflict and innovations may be shifting resulting in loss of control by the old guard actors;
multidisciplinary coordination but also on a strong action orientation by supporting actors in actively shaping the future.
In the meantime, it can be observed that more qualitative and discursive methods are stipulated by actors in the process or proposed by the project leaders.
since many policy interventions (and the actors responsible for them) are confronted regularly with unforeseen adverse some authors even call them perverse effects. 2. The issue of uncertainties
what actions and which actors play key roles After this round the preliminary versions of the result of the scenario process,
indirectly (by means of the involved actors), seeks to influence the technological development at stake. By placing the constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach in a historical perspective of technology assessment
For example, there is a visible increase in the number of linkages between the heterogeneous actors together in search of defining the newly emerging field or technology.
As nanotechnology is intended the partly, partly unintended outcome of the moves of many actors in industry, research and policy,
enable and constrain actors in a sense that actors experience more or less resistance for different options they try to explore
Emerging irreversibilities make it more difficult (or less easy) for actors to do something else (or easier to do something.
the stakes and the expectations are high for various actors. At the same time, the situation is very fluid,
unpredictable and no actor has clear knowledge what the technology will bring. Research institutes study a broad variety of scientific subjects
and actors will experience less available choices due to diminishing variety and decisions taken earlier 6. These emerging irreversibilities reduce the complexity of the situation 7. How do emerging irreversibilities affect the actors operating in the field?
An irreversibility is something that cannot be undone easily, and when actors try to achieve something that go against the irreversibility,
they become aware that it is impossible, or at least requires a lot of effort. Therefore, emerging irreversibilities are constraining.
On the other hand, when actors try to achieve things in line with the irreversibility, the actor can rely on some predictability to improve the chances of his strategy,
and this refers to the enabling character of emerging irreversibilities. The emerging irreversibility can be weak or strong,
when an actor has the intention to test the irreversibility, i e. tries actions or interactions that go against it.
or weaken the irreversibility depending on the outcome of the behaviour of the actor. In addition, irreversibilities often emerge behind the backs of the actors,
i e. without awareness of the actors. For instance, the growing attention for a certain subject is an indicator for an emerging irreversibility.
Fig. 1 shows the growing attention in journals for a certain topic and indicates that the term dnanotubest was used increasingly in the titles of scientific articles (extracted from the Picarta database.
The fact that these roadmaps are made is an indication that actors involved in this process link up to reach a common goal.
thus, functions as a device to keep the actors together. To deviate from it can only be done with increasing costs and effort,
Since all involved actors scientists, firms, policy makers have to act under the condition of insufficient information,
Expectations shape the mindsets of the various actors, while, in their turn, expectations will be shaped and reshaped by research results, findings in other technical fields,
Expectations are translated into the agendas of the different actors, upon which they act. The agendas give rise to activities and different outcomes (e g.,
one could focus on emerging networks of actors and artefacts: the preferred entrance point of actor network theory 6, 11.
Then, the analyst would trace the emerging concentrations in actor-networks (e g.,, firm cooperation, joint research efforts),
they feed expectations by various actors in society (e g.,, the public, politicians, firms. On the 5 1 nm is approx. 1/80,000 of the thickness of a human hair
co-construction by all possibly relevant actors is not straightforward. Therefore, we suggested in this paper that a focus on expectations
indirectly aims at influencing the technology in development via the involved actors. We think the tracing of emerging irreversibilities is an important next step in the development of TA,
which the perspectives and actions of multiple heterogeneous actors are involved. Understanding the dynamics from the different perspectives gives insight in the different points of view of the actors involved in the CTA study. 16 Finally,
we note that the emerging character of nanotechnology provides research opportunities for innovation and technology studies.
which supports the actors to formulate their views on the future. These views are directly related to the social perspectives on the new technology.
As the set of involved actors is developed heterogeneous, the scenarios will differ in outlook and consequences.
and dynamics, looking at constitutional, institutional and administrative law (public actors and relationships with the public administration);
where a myriad of different actors and institutions try to orient specific laws according to their own different (and sometimes opposite) motivations, objectives and goals.
and actors involved in areas and activities as diverse as legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement. 2. For a historical review of the development of Future-oriented technology analysis, see Johnston (2008).
which translates the strategic orientation of governmental actors into research and innovation priorities. The arena includes research funding and related agencies and mediates between the governmental actors and the research actors.
Schoen et al. 2011) also link these arenas to the various objectives and present the following comprehensive overview (Table 2). Foresight is exercised also in firms,
and technological developments actors continuously and explicitly refer to what is possible in the future: they draw from
Actors will choose some of these tasks, assuming that other tasks will be enacted by others. This mutual positioning again may be reinforced by foresight reports that stipulate actions and agendas.
because they are connected to more actors, more data Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:02 03 december 2014 776 H. van Lente and more developments (Konrad 2006.
(which includes many choice moments) with more actors, more perspectives and, in general, more reflection (Schot and Rip 1996;
The interaction of collective and actor-specific expectations on electronic commerce and interactive television. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos. 3 4: 429 44.
In this paper, a new concept of networked sustainability (Cagnin 2005) is introduced as an evolution of the value Net value is redefined to be a triple-bottom-line balance of the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within a business's network:
with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 799 represented by a triple-bottom-line balance or the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within the network.
which actors in the network participate in defining common vision and strategy. The important questions are as follows:
The heart of a network becomes interaction alignment and integration of all operatiion and their supporting activities across products and services among all its actors.
and mutual understanding among the actors involved to enable the whole network to pursue the same vision of sustainable development.
to be pursued by all actors involved in the system. Moreover, it should link the activities that need to be performed at each stage to build an organisation's ability to know itself (how things are done in the present),
requiring a common identity (a true feeling of who‘we'are as partners as well as of who each actor is as individuals)
It also considers where all actors see themselves both individually and collectively within these alternative futures.
such a common vision to be pursued across the system should be based upon the mutual positioning of network actors in relation to future needs (Cagnin, Amanatidou, and Keenan 2012.
Cagnin 2005) between actors need to be reinforced to allow the coordination and mobilisation of necessary skills and resources towards a common target, aligning therefore strategy and operations across the system.
Management system FTA roles Decide to be in business FTA supports mutual learning and shared understanding of network actors'views and feelings as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes, all of
achievement of common ground, shared perspectives, dynamic multilateral partnerships, trust and adaptation as actors interact, new ideas emerge and existing
and new configurations Sustain the business FTA enables the network to continue to exist in the long run by enabling it to behave as a complex living system as actors interact
founded on a shared vision for sustainable development to be pursued by all actors, with interdependent and agreed roles;
but also enable all actors within such networks to progress towards higher levels of sustainable development. What one part does to another is interpreted indefinitely
the interactions among all the actors within networks characterise the existence of such a system or the network itself.
These might be the necessary characteristics to enable actors within business networks to perform at higher levels
enabling actors to anticipate and manage disruptive and transformative changes. The kind of dialogue supported throughftaprovides a newparadigm able to deal with unpredictability
Community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises. Paper prepared for the STRATA ETAN Expert Group action on Mobilising the Regional foresight Potential for an Enlarged European union.
by interactions of multiple actors and trajectories working in different temporal dimensions. These dimensions could be, for example, linear, visionary or disruptive.
'Second, the roadmapping process enables the engagement of the key actors in an organisation. Thus, it builds on a variety of organisational knowledge spaces
Furthermore, modularisation enables the tailoring of the roadmapping process to suit the needs of the different actors
the actors have different interpretations of the present in relation to the past and the future but the present is the only temporal position where interpretations can be turned into actions.
The second is the social/actor space, which covers all the issues that are primarily dependent on relations between different social actors inside and outside the organisation.
This space covers organisational development markets, and also more Figure 3. An ideal model of the knowledge spaces in an RTO.
and solutions Social/actor Covers issues that are primarily dependent on relations between different actors inside
market features and actors Articulation of demand Identifying societal and market drivers Strategy Strategic and holistic view of the research objects Strategic capacity of the organisation and/or entity Holistic roadmaps to be used in long-term strategic planning Technology space
and social/actor space are linked to a strategic perspective of the future, i e. a strong target Building strategic
and the social/actor space are mainly heuristic, because technologiie are formed in social interaction, and markets are created by socio-technical relationships.
useful because it enables the organisation to set specific targets both for technologies as solutions and organisational actors as realisers of these solutions.
and the social/actor space are combined in a distinctive strategic perspective. The fourth knowledge space is the visionary space.
Our model starts with a presupposition that in the technology and social/actor spaces the exploration of the more radical futures is restricted usually by the overaal need to identify certain actions in the present.
policy perspective Innovation policy roadmapping Roadmap for developing synthesising policy perspectives for public actors Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces depends on the specific aims of the process Forming policy conclusions on the basis of the roadmapping Downloaded by University of Bucharest
It is constructed to produce synthesising policy perspectives for public actors. The aim is to form policy conclusions on the basis of roadmapping.
technology and social/actor space, R&d I scope Our first example is a roadmapping process that is aimed to renew a line of organisational compettenc that is already rather well established at VTT.
and actors in the sector of building services. The third workshop focussed on and verified the constructed roadmap drafts.
I type of technology roadmap that is aimed to contribute to the technology space and the social/actor space.
The project also operated in the social/actor space. It underlined, first, markets for the adoption of novel solutions,
e g. advanced materials Several novel single technology elements were embedded in the roadmaps Social/actor Exercise covered social/actor space from the selected perspectives Capacities for linking of knowledge internally, e g. construction and ICT
and construction Novel market features and actors were identified, e g. integrated service provider Markets for new services and service providers in the field Built capacities for the construction of new integrated market players and clarified the role of VTT in relation to these new
In the social/actor space, the project aimed primarily to form capacities for linking knowledge internally atvtt, by combining construction expertise with ICT expertise.
for example, the identification of novel market features and actors, articulating demand opportunities in advanced building service solutions,
strategy space and social/actor space, RD II scope Our second example applies roadmapping in the context of an organisational development process aimed at establishing a service research network at VTT.
and systemic capacities The SSB roadmap can be perceived as an R&d II type of technology roadmap that aims to contribute to the strategy space and the social/actor space.
The SSB network also contributed to the social/actor space. It identified the most important players in the field of service research internally and externally
and vision for the future Social/actor Identification of most important players in the field of service research internally and externally Capacities and methods for linking and sharing existing knowledge internally,
the key ideas accentuated the need to build a new kind of serviceorieente operation culture in a field that is considered quite conservative by the actors.
and the construction machinery roadmapwas about finding newbusiness directions in the network of actors in the field.
aimed to empower actors and, through this, to establish and strengthen VTT's organisational identity as a novel‘player'in service science.
all the cases dealt with topics that are likely to spur different interpretations among the actors and stakeholders.
On the basis of the cases, it can be assessed that roadmapping is most applicable to processes aimed either at the technology space, the social/actor space,
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