http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis: experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna K. Matthias Weber a, Klaus Kubeczko a, Alexander Kaufmann a & Barbara Grunewald a a Austrian Institute of technology, Department Foresight
K. Matthias Weber, Klaus Kubeczko, Alexander Kaufmann & Barbara Grunewald (2009) Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis:
8 november 2009,953 969 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis: experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna K. Matthiasweber*,Klaus Kubeczko, Alexander Kaufmann and Barbara Grunewald Austrian Institute of technology, Department Foresight and Policy development, Vienna
This process undoubtedly had a major impact on policy; in fact, several of the recommendations of the process were translated immediately into policy decisions,
objectives and results of the Viennese innovation policy foresight and strategy process and the different impact dimensions will be analysed
The reasons for success in terms of shortteer policy impacts will be highlighted but also the factors that seem to hamper mediumaan long-term impacts from arising.
policy impact 1. Introduction In 2006, the City of Vienna initiated a far-reaching and open strategy process on the orientation of its future research, technology and innovation (RTI) policy.
This experience looks very much like a successful foresight process in terms of the impact it had and still has on policy and decision making,
at least as far as short-term impacts are concerned. However, in this paper, we would like to take a more systematic look at the impacts the process already has had
and is still likely to have in the future. For that purpose we use an impact assessment framework that has been developed by Havas, Schartinger, and Weber (2007.
Subsequently (Section 5), the impacts will be discussed along the lines of the impact assessment framework. Obviously, only the immediate and some of the intermediate impacts can be discussed on empiricca grounds,
given the fact that the process ended only in 2007. However other medium-and longer-term issues can be discussed on the grounds of the process design
However, the growing complexity of innovation processes is recognised also by stressing the bottom up Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 955 component of networking
but about the joint impact of public and private decision making on society's course of change and the interactions that precede formal decision making.
it is now possible to summarise the potential policy impacts of foresight by drawing first of all on the three main functions of foresight in relation to policy-making processes,
at which an impact occurs3 (Table 1). This framework will be taken as the background against which the experiences and impacts of the innovation policy foresight of the City of Vienna will be assessed,
but let us now turn first to the process itself. 3. Process design and implementation Vienna is the key centre for science and research in Austria as well as in the wider central European area to
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 957 Table 1. A Framework to classify the impacts of foresight activities.
Function Time lag Targeted and/or unintended impact Informing Immediate Increased recognition of a topic area Awareness of science,
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 959 Panel 1 FTI in business Integrative concept for RTI-strategy Panel
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 961 4. Objectives,
between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 963 life sciences, information technologies and the creative industries) will be promoted actively. A first call in this new area was launched in the first half of 2008, focusing on Arts&sciences.
and it is the firm intention to maintain the momentum of the participatory process by consolidating some of the communication channels that had been established in the context of the strategy process. 5. Impacts of the process
Although only the short-term (and some first medium-term) impacts can be discussed on empirical grounds,
short-term impacts The short-term impacts of the foresight process look quite impressive. In terms of its informing function, it certainly contributed to giving research and innovation more prominence and visibility in the context of urban policy.
and the impact of the foresight process in making these options real. Overall it is justified certainly to assess the impacts of the process positively in the short term. 5. 2. Intermediate,
medium-term impacts While it may be too early to assess the sustainability of the medium-term impacts that have become apparent 18 months after the end of the process,
the innovation policy strategy has certainly become a point of reference for many new policy initiatives. Reference is made regularly to the strategy to lend legitimacy to new initiatives and document their compatibility.
and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 965 boundary-crossing initiatives are difficult to realise.
‘Wien denkt Zukunft'promises to have limited a impact only, and it is likely to remain rather limited.
Giving an assessment of longer-term impacts is difficult after just a year since the completion of the process.
and strategy process‘Wien denkt Zukunft'had a number of clearly identifiable impacts on policy agendas and initiatives.
and thus to the consideration of alternative futures had been addressed in the forward-looking part Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 967 of the preceding research programme on the Viennese innovation system,
The targeted and unforeseen impacts on innovation policy: the eforesee Malta case study. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 2, no. 1: 84 103.
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the future visions were redirected'to being used by the young people themselves, arguably with less political and operative impact.
Publications are weighted according to disciplinary journal impact criteria. Journal Citation Reports provide the basis for calculating the merits of individual and unit outputs.
and perceived technological impacts can further support TA activities. In sum, tech mining offers partial,
with the aim of enhancing the impacts of public R&i funding and facilitating the formation of larger research units.
and separate analysis of its significance and impacts (why is this driving force relevant to R&i policy and R&i activities?.
Global economy Assessment and management of global risks Impacts of business globalisation on national economies Management of innovation processes panel reports. 5 The first part of the synthesis report summarised selected driving forces
assessing rational, process and impact. Technological foresight and Social Change 73, no. 7: 761 77. Havas, A. 2003.
and emphasis was placed on the delivery of concrete and valued policy outcomes and impacts from FTA ACTIVITIES.
but crossed this with an interest in the evaluation of impacts and in the use of FTA in two domains, business and higher education 9, 10.
The 2008 FTA Conference continued the focus on the‘‘impacts and implications of FTA for policy and decision making''but this time constructed its themes and anchor papers differently.
Ko nno la et al. put forward a framework to clarify different roles of foresight within the system and their respective impacts and implications for policy and societal developments.
Saritas and Smith invited attendees to answer a number of questions about shaping forces, sources of change and their impacts, particularly in terms of new challenges and opportunities.
The conference will seek to understand further how far the institutionalisation (i e. embeddedness) of FTA supports both the achievement of measurable impacts and the strengthening of interaction s between research, higher education and innovation.
impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461.10 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R
I. Miles, Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making, Technology analysis & Strategic management 21 (2009) 915 916.13 T. Ko nno la, J. Smith, A. Eerola, Introduction
, Future-oriented technology analysis impacts and implications for policy and decision making, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137.14 I. Nonaka, H. Takeuchi, The Knowledge-creating Company, Oxford university Press, Oxford
Examples include abstracts that speculate about currently gestating technologies with the potential eventually to have an impact similar in scope to that of the Internet in the past 20 years.
or topic will have widespread impact (see Fig. 3). The second part of the meeting consists of identifying the topics
and bspeculativeq simply as a means of providing a perspective on a time frame for projected impacts.
but has limited its impact by internal resistance 26.4. Foresight aligning actors in innovation policy Structural issues are also to the fore in an emerging important application of foresight
the practice and its impacts, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 287 307.4 B. R. Martin, R. Johnston, Technology foresight for wiring up the national innovation system a review of recent
status and impact of international future-oriented technology analysis, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barre'(Eds.
Impacts and implications on policy-making§T. Ko nno la A f. Scapolo b, 1, P. Desruelle c, 2, R. Mud, 3 a Impetu Solutions
and society and (ii) its respective impacts and implications on policy. 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.§
for instance, mean that it has not been easy to evaluate the impacts of the foresight project (for instance,
in order to clarify (i) different roles of foresight in the innovation system and (ii) its respective impacts and implications on policy and societal developments.
of which results are discussed in view of impacts on policy-making. Section 4 provides some conclusions and discussion on the possible advantages of the proposed framework for the characterisation of foresight projects as contribution to the policy-making process. 2. Characteristics of foresight projects To understand the impacts of foresight in the system,
it is beneficial to identify different types of foresight activities. The design of foresight activities addressing societal challenges can benefit from the structured approaches that help to identify the expectations concerning the management of the foresight process
The first dimension addresses the type of main outcomes of the foresight project referring to its different kinds of impacts on the policy and society at large.
informative vs. instrumental outcomes Foresight outcomes consist of outputs, results and impacts of the project. Outputs refer to the products and services, tangibles and intangibles.
and impacts refer to consequences affecting beneficiaries during and after the project. For the purposes of the paper we consider instrumental and informative outcomes that are defined as follows:
Fixed Strategic environmental scan based on experts'view was used assess probability and impacts of projected threats.
Future Impact of ICTS on Environmental Sustainabilityh 22 Informative Explore how ICTS will influence future environmental sustainability (time horizon:
Diverse Description of a large degree of uncertainty of impact of ICTS on the environment. The scenarios developed during the project accommodated a diverse range of views
Consensual The‘‘Revision of 3rd Korean TF''has analysed the impacts of 19 megatrends & issues,
Subsequently, we discuss the impacts of the selected projects on policy in the four quadrants,
but direct impacts to policy-making have not been recorded. In the Nordic H2 Energy Foresight the major challenge was to create shared understandings on future hydrogen-based energy systems between different stakeholder groups representing five different countries.
In terms of indirect impact the‘‘Technology Trajectory''concept developed by FISTERA was used by industry and academia as a‘‘thinking tool''.
but it could also have wider impacts in society and be used to stimulate a wider discussion among stakeholders. 3. 4. Agora foresight (diverse perspectives
the European project‘‘Future Impact of ICTS on Environmental sustainability''aimed to explore (qualitatively) and to assess (quantitatively) the ways in which ICTS would influence future environmental sustainability (time horizon:
) The findings of the project showed that a large degree of uncertainty existed on impact of ICTS on the environment,
and that‘‘rebound effects''could lead to opposite impacts to that desired (e g . if transportation becomes cheaper and faster thanks to ICTS,
Hence, it was planned not to have direct impacts to decision-making. However, the participants from different sectors of the society benefited from the project.
Our analysis supports the thesis that different classes of foresight projects have respective different types of impacts on policy and society.
Tracing the impacts of foresight is often very difficult. In many cases, policy-makers do not refer to the sources used
Projects with the focus on instrumental outcomes have often important informative impacts, including indirect or unexpected impacts.
Foresight influences all participants in the process as well as their networks. Furthermore, the outputs are reused often''by actors not considered in the design phase.
We expect that the developed framework can facilitate the discussion about the expectations and the management of foresight projects and about its impact on policy-making and society at large.
impacts and implications for policy and decision making, in: The 2008 FTA International Seville Conference, 2009, available at:
we are led typically to think of the‘‘obvious catastrophes''and more or less wild cards mass epidemics, asteroid impacts, supervolcanoes, accelerating climate change, and the like.
and Miles 33 for a detailed comparison of two different approaches to eliciting expert opinion (cross-impact versus Delphi method).
Various approaches to prioritisation (such as key technologies analysis, plotting feasibility against impact of various actions, MCA,
prioritise and address the social issues that matter most or the ones on which it can make the biggest impact. 5. 1. Research on corporate social responsibility The business case for CSR can be divided into theoretical and empirical categories 30
measuring the impact or effect of sustainability on the reporting organisation. The indicators have emerged from the combination of the GRI
which integrates value chain social impacts and investments in competitive context; it is developed the means by a firm to build a proper dialogue with stakeholders
Generic social impacts Value chain social impacts Social dimensions of competitive context Good citizenship Mitigate harm from value chain activities Strategic philanthropy5 that leverages capabilities
Rather than just opening dialogue between science and society solely in terms of environmental or health impacts, there is a need to tackle broader social concerns such as ethical and cultural values, power relations,
and other stakeholders taking into consideration social impacts and social dimensions of its value chain in a competitive context as well as its relationships with employees, customers, governments and society at large.
the social impacts of all firm unit's activities in each location where it operates.
however, is to understand how FTA can support companies in anticipating impacts which are recognised not yet well
or sources of change and what might be their impacts, particularly where these may create entirely new challenges and opportunities?
and also they can be adapted both by and/or strongly impact stakeholders, sometimes rapidly. Driver of change examples Climate policies and resource practices;
Major S&t developments and their societal impacts; Policy or regulatory changes that lead to changes in government priorities, company actions and investments;
or those having both great uncertainty and potentially high impact. These are structured then into a matrix of 4 cells (2 drivers with high and low situations for each)
Solar flare, asteroid impacts, discovery of an alien; Autonomous computers; The attacks of September 11, 2001, which created significant shocks to the global security, airport screening and intelligence systems and practices;
so but if they do their impact is very high. These situations tend to alter the fundamentals,
and potential for impact might be considered‘Wildcards'.'He defines wild cards as‘Low Probability, High Impact events that, were they to occur,
would severely impact the human condition'.'Steinmueller 8 also has an excellent overview of wild cards in the 2008 RAHS Booklet on Foresight:
tool called a‘‘Reference Impact Grid''(RIG) which helps strategists and risk managers define vulnerabilities within a given system
practicing medicine and computation-making calculations, with pervasive societal impacts. The definition suggested by the authors of the current paper is as follows:
‘‘warnings (external or internal), events and developments that are still too incomplete to permit an accurate estimation of their impact
1. Impact: rating of the trends, drivers, discontinuities as low, medium or high; 2. Likelihood:
Analysis of assessed impact, likelihood, controversy, time horizon patterns; Comparison of FTA COMMUNITY insights-domains content with others sources of Foresight trends, drivers, etc.
Overall, the respondents considered the impacts of the trends they identified high. Over 70%of the trends identified by the participants have high impact on Society and Culture;
Almost all the survey respondents considered that the drivers will have medium to high impact on the STEEP systems with the large majority of the experienced respondents (73%)considered high impact.
and the remaining 35%will have medium impact on the STEEP systems. The figures were 75%high and 25%for medium for the Australasian respondents.
whereas the rest expect medium level of impact. Likelihood and time horizon assessment. The majority of respondents from Academia and NGOS expected a medium level of likelihood of occurrence for the drivers identified.
, interrestrial visitors, alliance, eco-collapse, biotech Increased impact of converging technologies on social life Natural language codifications becomes available allowing people communicate globally New s&t paradigms for knowledge society
The majority of the drivers identified were identified as likely to have high impact on the STEEP systems with the rest of the drivers (approximately a quarter of them) likely to have medium impact.
The impacts of the discontinuities identified were considered to be high by most of the respondents around the globe.
Around 70%of all respondents from various Foresight affiliations that assessed discontinuities expect high impact.
The rest of the respondents stated medium impact. Likelihood and time horizon assessment. Regarding the likelihood of occurrence of discontinuities, the responses from Academia,
and impact People might be eating plastics due to photo-degraded plastics in environments (e g. eaten by fish) Different ethical vision science built Stronger impact of artists Increase of genetic and hereditary
1) trends and drivers by experience, country of residence and affiliation and also by responses on impact, likelihood, controversy and horizon time;(
The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Random House Publishing, New york, 2007.11 P. van Notten, A m. Sleegersb, M. van Asselt, The future shocks:
with the recognition that demonstrating impact is probably the greatest hurdle to the wider acceptance and use of FTA.
and are ready to take notice it seems to have a greater impact. If it is sponsored by an organisation that is out of favour then regardless of the quality of the foresight work there may be little impact.
As in so many other areas, the impact of a particular finding may occur long after the project is completed,
and not uncommonly in unexpected applications. Hence, some FTA outputs may enter the reservoir of knowledge where it may be drawn on at some time in the future.
'2 but there is also value in selecting topics that are likely to arouse strong interest. 3 The challenge for high impact FTA is to select issues that have both a long time horizon,
focussed on measuring impact, and normative evaluation, which ismore concernedwith howto improve impact. While bettermetrics are obviously useful,
and should be pursued, there is a case that at this stage of the evolution of FTA,
the greater emphasis should be on improving the processes that influence impact. 3. The contribution of the FTA Conference A particular feature of the FTA Conference series is that it‘‘acts as a magnet to bring people interested in FTA together
and had a special emphasis on the delivery of policy outcomes and impacts from FTA ACTIVITIES on policy and decision-making processes.
A clear demonstration of high-impact FTA studies such as the UK coastal flooding 10 and obesity reports 11,
and capacity building towards a much greater emphasis on achieving highly visible and well documented impact.
impact on policy and decision making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008.
and methods can be used for assessing the impact of transport policy decision-making. They highlight the importance of assessing the potential effects of policy interventions to anticipate unintended effects
but also various impacts outside the transportation sector. Not least because of this complexity, the effects of policy interventions in the transport sector are not entirely predictable,
The question then is how to provide policy making with the best available knowledge about the impacts of interventions (that achieve the intended goals
and the nature of its impact, are understood well Related concept Great uncertainty Uncertainty Riska Strategies Build awareness about reasons for fundamental limits to knowledge Attempt to anticipate,
identify and reduce the impact of‘‘surprises''Build awareness for limits to identify causal relationships Reduce the role of a potentially hazardous development
as a quantitative characterization of adverse effects in terms of the probability of its occurrence and the level of its impacts VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 285 nodes that are interlinked.
A PAGE 290 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 broad range of tools and methods exists that are used for assessing the impact of transport policy decision-making by trying to anticipate such effects.
He serves as Deputy Head of the Department of Innovation processes and Impacts of Technology at ITAS.
and that tiny, often trivial actions can have huge, irreversible, impacts. 5. Non-equilibrium. Complex systems are not at equilibrium
trivial actions can have huge, irreversible impacts. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 297 B Enable practitioners to visualise systems from very different perspectives,
and evaluate the policy instruments deployed to promote variation 4. Identify alternative policy options that can minimize the impacts from the any identified risks 4. Remove the barriers that hinder the adoption of these strategies 4. Incorporate feedback from the‘‘grassroots''level
and that tiny, trivial actions can have huge, irreversible impacts. They must also recognise that even the most basic rules
and reflect on the impacts of the foresight report. Government Climate Policy Specialist Oras Tynkkynen who was responsible for the preparation of the report in the Prime minister's Office 3,
it is very hard to foresee the social impacts of the technology, but the course of development can still be altered easily.
social impacts can be observed. However, changing/controlling the technological development becomes extremely difficult. This dilemma highlights the importance of understanding the dynamics of technological developments even at very early stages.
and thus, will have an impact in all areas of economic activities (examples are the materials production industry, pharmaceutical industry, electronics industry).
bbig markets, apart from materials, in which nanotubes may make an impact, include flat panel displays (near-term commercialisation is promised here),
Functional implications should provide plenty of clues for the establishment of a set of parametric indicators that will measure urban development impacts.
This scenario generates strong environmental and social impacts due to a model based on strong economic growth and intense consumption (see Figure 5). Public policies related to urban development are implemented not effectively because of social and economic pressures.
The study area reflects a fragile environment whose ecosystem could be disturbed irreversibly by the increasing impact of human pressure.
Area of primary-production land needed to support the resource use of the dwellers on urban land VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 327 difficult to decouple the increasing environmental impact.
or minimize the generation of heavy environmental impact: B Satisfy social needs in a context where individualism
and allows one to study the impact of different possible decisions, i e. to explore various future scenarios at different degrees of detail,
the impact promises to be even greater. In effect, the application of this particular ICT-based FTA instrument to Law will enable the development of innovative models for researchers,
assessing the impact of different regulatory options. Modelling techniques would allow legislators and decision makers to test the prospective impacts and consequences of a given change in legislation.
The effects of legal changes and reforms could thus be anticipated and tested in safe and experimental environments.
and to the need to produce better accounts of effective and demonstrable impact of legislation.
not only contribute to the process of evaluating the impact of specific laws in society, it would also render legislators
and legal practitioners more attentive (and also more accountable) to the outcomes and impact of enacted or revised legislation.
The, the impact of these laws could be reviewed, evaluated and forecasted in greater depth and accuracy.
If TA focuses on the outcomes or impacts of a technology, it can be performed only at later stages of technology development
widely distributed (some would say decentralised) technologies where the impacts arise rather from a single component itself but from the large number of components and their widespread application,
which makes it difficult to even determine relevant impact categories. Therefore it is necessary to perform intermediate analysis steps to connect these technologies to applications or visions for their integration in application technologies or products.
or probable technology impacts in decisions already at an early stage is part of the basic concept of technology assessment.
because impact identification and assessment have to be carried out at an extremely early stage and their results are expected to find consideration in practical decisions.
The first one is the assessment of the impacts of its production. Although there are many knowledge gaps
Nanotechnology is considered mainly as one of the technological developments to have far-reaching impacts on the industries of this century.
Technology assessment Methods and Impacts, Springer Heidelberg, New york, 2004. T. Fleischer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1120 2 T. Fleischer, A. Grunwald, Technikgestaltung fu r mehr Nachhaltigkeit Anforderungen an die Technikfolgenabscha
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