The wide interest in foresight seems to be confirmed by the growing number of consulting companies and networks in the field. 1 On the other hand,
Notes 1. Relevant examples are GBN (Global Business Network) in the USA and EIRMA (European Industrial research Management Association) in the European union. 2. A significant number of managers of the firms we studied pointed out that they had great difficulty in finding
From an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology analysis & Strategic management 13, no. 4: 533 53.
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development Cristiano Cagnin a b & Denis Loveridge c a DG Joint research
Cristiano Cagnin & Denis Loveridge (2012) A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24:8, 797-820, DOI:
8 september 2012,797 820 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks to evolve towards sustainable development Cristiano Cagnina, b*and Denis Loveridgec adg Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective and Technological
and address change within the networks in which it is embedded, using future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) thinking to shape the business's path towards sustainable development.
The proposed framework has been devised to enable a firm to become a participant that helps shaping the path to a common vision within its network being flexible enough to adapt to the changing circumstances of the environment and of its relationships.
The objective is to help organisations create a tailored as well as a common strategy in their network of relationships
network vision; management framework and path to sustainable development; dialogue and interaction; disruptive and transformative change; FTA and complex ecosystems 1. Introduction Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) thinking is used in an explanation
and address change in the networks within which they are embedded. The behaviour of these networks is analysed from the perspective of sympoietic complex systems.
Embedding FTA within the proposed management dynamic framework enables business networks to develop their sympoietic system capability, through interactions and inclusive dialogue,
thus contributing to a business's successful continuity. The sustainable development of a business depends on the integration of sustainable thinking into mainstream decision-making and core operational processes:
), leads to a network of value creation. Value is translated still by an‘economic'bottom line and, in this context, is decoded in financial returns to shareholders based on operation efficiency and/or customers'and/or suppliers'/deliverers'engagement, with the ultimate goal of satisfying customers'needs.
and value nets, bring into the scenario the requirement of aligning customers and also suppliers in the decision-making process and the operational procedures needed to carry out the necessary value activities to achieve the ultimate goal of satisfying the end-customer.
In this paper, a new concept of networked sustainability (Cagnin 2005) is introduced as an evolution of the value Net value is redefined to be a triple-bottom-line balance of the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within a business's network:
and in understanding how networks operate and how a network environment can enhance the core competencies of a firm:
these lead to sustainable competitive advantages. Hence, there is still a latent need to understand howother stakeholders can bring value to a firm
Section 3 describes that networked sustainability goes one step beyond the value net by consideriin the global system within
Such a network has to operate as a cyclical system where value is redefined from Porter's strategies, on cost leadership and differentiation,
with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 799 represented by a triple-bottom-line balance or the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within the network.
Moreover, the value activities in the network must align and integrate operational processes, as in a traditional value chain,
which actors in the network participate in defining common vision and strategy. The important questions are as follows:
and should be considered as value activities of a network and what roles can FTA play as well as how the network value activities ought to evolve in time to shape business sustainability?
In Section 4, the value-creating activities managed across a business network are linked to the ability of a network to self-organise:
it must also be able to anticipate and respond to transforming disruptive change. The proposed management framework and the roles that FTA can play are introduced then comparing networks to complex sympoietic systems.
Finally, Section 5 summarises the main conclusions and outlines implications for policy and subsequent decision-making. 2. Analysis of existing tools and their gaps Since the 1990s, a range of tools have been brought in to help companies design their path
network and organisational culture (Caldow and Kirby 1996. The situation seems to rely on the ability to build a group of generic behaviours or actions over
so that companies can effectively follow their (network) vision of sustainable development. Each of the most used business sustainability tools (Appendix 2) is allocated according to the four main functions that the tool can perform inside companies and the six dimensions of sustainability.
shaped by a firm's individual context and culture, will offer different and clear possibilities to implement the organisation's (network) vision of sustainable development.
a path towards networks'sustainable development 3. 1. Network value activities Traditionally, in a network, value activities are the building blocks by
In a nontraditional network, value activities remain undivided since they all leverage and support each other:
to enable business networks 801 Figure 1. Business sustainability activities model. Source: Cagnin (2005. development and delivery of responsible products and services across the network throughout their life cycle.
The heart of a network becomes interaction alignment and integration of all operatiion and their supporting activities across products and services among all its actors.
Would that be enough to achieve this life-cycle objective? For the six dimensions of sustainability to be embedded in a firm's core operations,
its operatiiona activities must be integrated throughout its network and in alignment with a common strategy across the network.
and mutual understanding among the actors involved to enable the whole network to pursue the same vision of sustainable development.
and its network of relationships interact across the network to align value-creating activities. The common and complementary elements between the needs of value creation
within a firm's network, and the intangible assets underlying sustainable development are partnerships, strategy, communication, competencies, motivation, technology and operations.
these must be learnt and practised simultaneously across the network. Theactivities Model (Figure 1) is based on the quantum leaps model devised by Shelton (1997),
3. 2. Basis for the management framework and roles that FTA can play The proposed management framework aims to support the achievement of a business with aligned socioeconomic environmental performance across its network that helps firms develop a participaativ process throughout to shape a common vision of sustainable development
enabling the design of the necessary actions to achieve the desirable future (how things ought to be done according to the business's and its networks'vision).
and its networks'progress towards the common vision of sustainable development. The dynamic capability and ability to behave as a complex system are
the firm will be armed then with better and clearer opportunities for an evolutionary leap in sustainability performance and to deal with disruptive change, in alignment with the partners in its network.
Collaborative learning is the basis of this evolutionary leap founded on an inclusive and active dialogue among all parties in the network:
Trust must be achieved by developing the confidence of all parties in every link of the network's intent and behaviour (Lund 2003.
to enable business networks 803 The development of effective and lasting partnerships is critical, requiring a common identity (a true feeling of who‘we'are as partners as well as of who each actor is as individuals)
Dialogue to develop‘meta-learning'across the network is crucial. It is the recognition of others'feelings
According to Losada (1999), high-performance teams need an inclusive dialogue approach for all stakeholders in the network.
It seems to be critical to creating a continual collaborative learning process across the network and brings value to all the involved parties,
which includes the need for an inclusive dialogue approach with all stakeholders in the network with FTA permeating all processes:
and to bringing ultimate value to all parties involved in the network. Moreover, FTA supports one to deal with complexity (Saritas 2006) to process
The link between learning and strategy around a common vision in the network enables trust to be developed across the system through participatory instruments.
These take into consideration the diversity of views across the network and the collective articulation of visions and expectations.
such a common vision to be pursued across the system should be based upon the mutual positioning of network actors in relation to future needs (Cagnin, Amanatidou, and Keenan 2012.
and recognition of each other's feelings, for mutual learning, knowledge sharing and experimentation, all of which are critical to building the kind of interactions and inclusive dialogue across the network that lead to trust, legitimacy and a common identity.
The latter are paramount for invention within the network. The anticipatory role of FTA allows an inclusive debate of possible
Management system FTA roles Decide to be in business FTA supports mutual learning and shared understanding of network actors'views and feelings as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes, all of
and resources to be prioritised Run the business FTA creates spaces for experimentation, learning and mutual appreciation, for the development of new or improved linkages and networks,
and new knowledge are combined Monitor the business FTA PROCESSES lead to an enhanced responsiveness of the network,
therefore the network to undertake systemic transitions and new configurations Sustain the business FTA enables the network to continue to exist in the long run by enabling it to behave as a complex living system as actors interact
and connect through inclusive dialogue and mutual respect, in which each and every node of the network becomes an embedded participant that actively shapes the path to a common vision of sustainability Source:
Cagnin et al. 2008,2012. 3. 3. Maturity model: how the network value activities evolve in time For a company,
sustainable development is a major challenge. The limited notion of what constituute‘sustainable development'is itself a riddle that any company faces.
The dynamism of a swarm or a network may be thought of as autopoiesis (Maturana andvarela 1980),
Dynamic and complex business networks are not of this kind, since they are always organisationally open, or partially so,
and is a closer approximation to the behaviour of a network of businesses all of which are seeking successful continuity for themselves and indirectly for the network itself.
What role does FTAPLAY in successful continuity while attempting to followwhat a firm believes to be its sustainable development
and that of its mutually supporting network of businesses? Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
to enable business networks 805 Foresight cannot remove the uncertainties any business faces and actually invests in:
In these ways, FTA can lead to the development of new (or enhanced) networks or linkages (stronger interactioons with the achievement of common ground, joint visions and enhanced responsiveness among the network members.
FTA cannot remove the uncertainty that surrounds its contribution to or nature of sustainable development in the wider context of its supporting network and society as a whole.
heavily dependent on the flow of ideas, data and information into a business and its network decision-making in its place in society.
The aim of the Maturity Model is to shape a possible business path towards sustainable developmment outlining how the network value activities ought to evolve in time to shape business sustainability.
Consequently, a business can build a tailored, common strategy throughout its network of relationships: it may also influence partners in their progress towards higher levels of sustainable development.
which a company will be seeking to achieve its (network) vision of sustainable development in uninterrrupte cycles of improvement.
The design of the Sustainability Maturity Model is founded on universal principles as well as the maturity of behaviours that can lead to the development of a mature business throughout its network of relationships (Cagnin 2005)
and/or strategies aligned across the network, founded on a shared vision for sustainable development to be pursued by all actors, with interdependent and agreed roles;
a cooperative interactive network rooted in communication channels that allow relevant and agreed information to flowfreely to create a common base of knowledge shared among partners to ensure that trust is enhanced;
to enable business networks 807 Partnerships-Selection driver is price-Hierarchical structure-Functionally driven-Competition among partners-Selection driver is delivery-Matrix structure where partners interact
firm's self-organising capability-Cooperative sustainabiliit net-Network's self-organisation-Continuous learning/adaptation-Creativity in decisionmakkin Operations-Focus on understanding
use of renewable energy sources and fewer natural resources-Processes/activities/values aligned across the net;
to enable business networks 809 a high-performance partnership where all parties feel motivated both as individuals
environmental and social performance along the network. 4. Management framework The proposed management framework emphasises the creative aspect of living systems where FTA is key to enable the kind of dialogue
and interactions required to allow business networks to behave as sympoietic complex systems. In this context and according to Hock (1999), enterprises must be able to combine, with harmony, order and chaos, competition and cooperation,
The information and knowledge which are shared throughout the business networks can lead to the networks'adaptation and evolution,
but also enable all actors within such networks to progress towards higher levels of sustainable development. What one part does to another is interpreted indefinitely
the interactions among all the actors within networks characterise the existence of such a system or the network itself.
The stronger the interactions between the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 810 C. Cagnin and D. Loveridge components of the network,
These might be the necessary characteristics to enable actors within business networks to perform at higher levels
which can support firms through the process to shape business sustainable development throughout their networks of relationships.
according to the network's value activities (Figure 1). In this context, it is worth highlighting Appendix 5,
FTA is embedded in the management framework to facilitate inclusive dialogue across the network, enabling actors to anticipate
Hence, embedding FTA within the proposed management framework enables a network to develop its sympoietic system capability:
joint visions and enhanced responsiveness among the network members including truly novel aspects of how the future might evolve.
Simultaneously, individual firms actively shape the future as an embedded network participant promoting a common vision within it
to enable business networks 811 Table 4. Business sustainability management framework. s e i t i v i t C a-b U s s e i t
and an inclusive dialogue throughout the network Competences Core competences definition and review Communication Communication channels and processes definition and review Technology Technology infrastructure definition and review Operations Operations
and the network vision for sustainability (as it ought to be) in order to keep the firm on track of its designated vision Monitor the business Collecting
if the firm achieved its objectives along the network and preparing the whole network to walk into a higher sustainability maturity level 5th Maturity Level Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 812 C. Cagnin
and D. Loveridge 5. Conclusions Some notions are set out of what is involved in managing a business towards sustainable developmmen within the Brundtland criteria (Brundtland 1987).
and interactions to take place across business networks to support effective decision-making: this is paramount. Consequently, firms will be enabled to anticipate
allowing network partners to evolve together and creating an evolutionary leap in sustainability performance. The implications for policy and decision-making are manifold.
In this context, the kind of dialogue required across a business network demands the inclusiiv participation of governments and overall societies,
apart from those businesses which shape the network. This shall be enabled by the proposed management framework.
as well as foster positive emotions and connectivity across networks by leveraging the number of interactions and opportunities for dialogue.
to enable business networks 813 Boden, M.,C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman, and T. Konnola. 2010.
Value nets: Breaking the supply chain to unlock hidden profits. New york: John Wiley & Sons.
Value nets: Reinventing the rusty supply chain for competitive advantage. Strategy & Leadership, 28, no. 4: 21 6. MCB University Press.
to enable business networks 815 Verweire, K, . and L. V. Berghe. 2003. Integrated performance management:
to enable business networks 817 Appendix 2. Existing business sustainability tools and research outcomesdimensions of sustainability Institutional-Business activities Economic Environmental Social Political Spatial Cultural Strategy Principles and Values Visions Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed
and D. Loveridge Appendix 3. Network value activities Value activities Main characteristics Partnerships It is in the core of CSR
and essential to achieve a cooperative and systematic network Strategy It is the business commitment with a set of principles, values and policies
and sharing through the network to achieve a dynamic process of innovation, learning and continuous improvement Motivation Making available the necessary tools and an environmental where collaborators share responsibility
and indicators along the network and thus create individual and cooperative competitive advantages Operation The business principles
and values throughout the network are expressed through its operations. The business values reflected in its operations are
Hence, values are seen as a strategic tool to align all activities along the network and to give the direction as to where the firm will go with
to enable business networks 819 Appendix 4. Business broad management system Stages PDCA Cycle Meaning Stakeholders Participation Based on Inclusive Dialogue
which should be agreed commonly with the business network partners. Design the business P It is the process of planning how the business must be shaped in roder to achieve the vision of sustainability via the definition of a strategy
Technology and organization terms were linked together on a document basis and visualized in a network or link analysis map.
We use a notion of process-based roadmapping that widens the horizons of traditional technology roadmapping in such directions as visionary strategic management, network building and development,
and different tasks in the innovation network (see Könnölä et al. 2009). It is possible to make a distinction between two roadmapping cultures.
business perspective Network roadmapping Roadmap for developing capacities for a network or a cluster Combination of roadmap knowledge spaces depends on the specific aims of the process Making business decisions on the basis
The roadmap aims to develop capacities for a network or a cluster, and combines roadmap knowledge‘spaces',depending on the specific aims of the process.
Service Science and Business network: strategy space and social/actor space, RD II scope Our second example applies roadmapping in the context of an organisational development process aimed at establishing a service research network at VTT.
Service research is an emerging field of research requiring cooperation across disciplines and the varied lines of business.
In order to create the Service Science and Business (SSB) network, foresight and organisational learning methods were integrated in a workshop process.
The knowledge spaces of the project are summarised in Table 4. The SSB network operated primarily in the strategy space.
The SSB network also contributed to the social/actor space. It identified the most important players in the field of service research internally and externally
and enhanced capacities for the creation of new knowledge in an emerging service science network. It also endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research in Finland and in Europe.
The SSB network also had a strong capacity push that was built on the identification of VTT's own capacities
strategy space and visionary space, systemic I scope The third case is an example of a systemic network roadmap.
The construction machinery roadmap was aimed to develop new service capacities for a network of technology-oriented companies,
and 10 companies represented the business network. The construction machinerywas defined as machines, tools, and equipment that are used on the building site for making end-products and for providing different repair tasks and related services.
Table 4. Summary of the knowledge spaces of the SSB network. Knowledge Key systemic capacities space Description associated with the space Forms of project knowledge Strategy Exercise defined the emerging field of service research
opportunities and challenges Markets for new services and service providers in the field Capacities and methods for creating new knowledge in the network Endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research both in Finland and Europe
Three of the cases (building services roadmap, SSB network, and construction machinery roadmap) emphasised the building of a novel service-oriented culture,
and the construction machinery roadmapwas about finding newbusiness directions in the network of actors in the field.
The case of the SSB network, which was about building an explicit service-oriented R&d trajectory in an engineering-oriented RTO,
excluding the continuous development process of the SSB network, were somewhat singular foresight projects. This means that,
which extends the horizons of roadmappiing We also presented four case examples the Building Service Roadmap, SSB Network, Construction Machinery Roadmap,
especially on organisational learning theories, network development, and impact evaluation. She has an MSC in Applied Geography from La Sapienza University of Rome.
A method for learning in networks. International Journal of Quality and Service Sciences 2, no. 1: 128 45.
Mapping research networks identifies collaborations. To provide a sense of this, we focus selectively as such analyses are fairly well known (Porter, Kongthon, and Lu 2002).
Diversity and network coherence as indicators of interdisciplinarity: Case studies in bionanoscience. Scientometrics 82, no. 2: 263 87.
Interinstitutional networks in technological delivery systems. In Science and technology policy, ed. J. Haberer, 153 75.
of social innovation and network building 11-E Management of humans, creation, management, and transfer of knowledge, education,
and B corporate dialogues initiated by businesses to communicate in the context of supplier networks and with society as a whole.
Additional results might be community building between stakeholders from various disciplines in academia as well as strengthening of networks between academia and industry. 4. Characteristics and use of strategic dialogues As a highly flexible tool
Firstly, strategic dialogues have helped to overcome the necessarily limited perspective of individual units within an organization such as a federal ministry by connecting units with each other in a loose network where ideas can VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 21
This clarity, together with clarity of terminology, is a prerequisite for expressing the dialogue in a Bayesian way Making Bayesian belief networks explicit as outlined by Welp et al.
or through unrelated shifts (e g. change of government after an election) then belief networks of research policy makers can be affected.
include university departments, scientific networks, non-university research organizations, polytechnics, and academies. Industry stakeholders may be small to medium-sized enterprises as well as global multinational companies, industry associations or research partnerships.
External stakeholders are being identified in the course of the process based on input from political stakeholders complemented by input from our own research as well as established networks into academia and industry.
Furthermore, relevant activities in the field are mapped, such as pilot projects, existing networks and stakeholders in an international context.
and start to act ideally as promoters and multipliers of the subject within their networks and organizations.
Also, they result in the creation of new informal VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 27 networks within the BMBF, between BMBF units and external stakeholders,
These networks persist beyond the end of the actual dialogue and can facilitate the interplay of actors in research as well as research policy.
Cagnin, C. and Loveridge, D. 2011),‘A business framework for building anticipatory capacity to manage disruptive and transformative change and lead business networks towards sustainable development,
Increase the available options for renewable energy generation capacity Install advanced distribution networks with international connectivity Develop
PAGE 52 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2006),‘Next generation networks:
In addition to the resource-based theory, the modern emphasis is on network approaches to industrial strategy
and the need for partnering approaches to manage these networks of buyers, suppliers and peer companies, knowing the capabilities and intents of other organization for noncompetitive purposes.
Another famous example is the foresight activity mapping used by the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN), a Europe-wide network inspired
and financed by the European commission within the framework of the Foresight Knowledge sharing Platform implemented under the Research Framework programme (FP7).
advanced and reliable distribution network and system technology for electricity; distributed power generation systems; next-generation SCADA technology;
The content of the related Delphi topics contain‘‘CO2 recover, sequestration and storage technology'',Hydrogen supply infrastructure networks for fuel cell automobiles'',Geologic disposal technology for high-level radioactive waste,
The content of these topics comprise‘‘Large scale network security and defense system for electricity'',Effective supercritical/ultra supercritical power generation technology'',Key Figure 8 Technology interactions across WIPO
and governance network-building coupled with avoiding centralised S&t planning. In Germany, FTA is used mainly for addressing the future of existing areas of strength
and radical innovations via 5 The European foresight monitoring Network is one of the few attempts to take stock of quantitative and qualitative foresight methods.
It consists of an intranet based network of people, tools and data (from unstructured text from internet to reports uploaded by experts),
and the sharing of perspectives across the network is supported by a set of perspective visualisation tools.
Such sectors include energy 32 (see the Energy Foresight Network: www. efonet. org), transport and climate change.
In turn, uncertainty should be assessedwith the primary aim of differentiating between the intrinsic variability of a given phenomenon that exhibits high sensitivity to small changes (e g. networks congestion)
if at all possible, the benefits derived from the foresight process itself (such as for instance network building and improved collaboration) and the improvement of the decision-making process,
O. Saritas, Incorporating network perspectives in foresight: a methodological proposal, Foresight 11 (6)( 2009) 21 41.43 B. Boyer, J. W. Cook, M. Steinberg, in:
Deliverable 3. 1 of EFONET Energy Foresight Network, 2009, Available at: http://www. efonet. org/index. php?
and Innovative Approaches) and EFONET (Energy Foresight Network) and is rapporteur of the EC Working group Global Europe 2030 2050.
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