7 4, 537,160 3. 8 126,032 Process engineering 41 6. 5 8 761,137 7. 2 213,686 Production/management concepts 51 8. 0 8, 406,303 7. 0 164,829 Other 112 17.7 16,631, 768
48 24.1 Microelectronics 21 10.6 Nanotechnology 6 3. 0 Process engineering 16 8. 0 Production/management concepts 14 7. 0 Other
an ordinal measure of the technical importance of the introduced product and process innovations; 8 an ordinal measure of the economic importance of the introduced product and process innovations;
9 percentage reduction of average variable productiio costs due to process innovation; sales of new products new to the firm or to the market as a percentage of total sales;
sales of significantly improved or modified (alreead existing) products as a percentage of total sales;
introduced innovations from a technical point of view*Yes Yes Yes Yes Importance of introduced innovations from an economic point of view*No Yes Yes Yes Percentage reduction of average variable production costs due to process innovation Yes Yes Yes Yes Sales of significantly improved
*Originally ordinal variable measured separately for product and process innovations on a five-point Likert scale (1=very small, 5=very high.
Mean values are used for product and process innovations. Statistical significance: 5%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 71 innovation performance than non-subsidized firms (at the 5%test level.
from a technical point of view*Yes Yes Yes Yes Importance of introduced innovations from an economic point of view*No No No No Percentage reduction of average variable production costs due to process innovation Yes Yes Yes Yes Sales of significantly improved
*Originally ordinal variable measured separately for product and process innovations on a five-point Likert scale (1=very small, 5=very high.
Mean values are used for product and process innovations. Statistical significance: 5%test level Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 72‘low-subsidy'firms from that of the respective groups of non-subsidized firms.
33 20 60.6 Microelectronics 27 16 59.3 Nanotechnology 6 5 83.3 Process engineering 29 15 51.7 Production/management concepts 23 14
variable production costs due to process innovation 4. 98 (0. 29) 3. 59 (0. 43) 8. 61 (1. 24) 5. 02 (1
*Originally ordinal variable measured separately for product and process innovations on a five-point Likert scale (1=very small,
5=very high) Mean values are used for product and process innovations Number of non-subsidized firms=996;
variable production costs due to process innovation 33.73 (0. 84) 36.32 (0. 43) 48.36 (2. 39) 12.04 (2. 47) Yes Sales of significantly improved or
variable production costs due to process innovation 4. 98 (0. 29) 5. 85 (0. 11) 8. 61 (1. 24) 2. 76 (1
of average variable production costs due to process innovation 4 98 (0. 29) 5. 85 (0. 11) 8. 61 (1. 24) 2. 76
point of view*0. 05 No 0. 03 No No Percentage reduction of average variable production costs due to process innovation 6. 80 Yes 3. 80 Yes Yes Sales of significantly improved
point of view*0. 13 No 0. 26 Yes No Percentage reduction of average variable production costs due to process innovation 4. 10 Yes 1. 90 Yes Yes Sales of significantly improved
point of view*0. 08 No 0. 24 No No Percentage reduction of average variable production costs due to process innovation 3. 60 Yes 1. 70 Yes Yes Sales of significantly improved
point of view*0. 09 No 0. 24 No No Percentage reduction of average variable production costs due to process innovation 3. 80 Yes 1. 90 Yes Yes Sales of significantly improved
The ordinal variable was measured originally separately for product and process innovations on a five-point Likert scale (1=very small, 5=very high;
and process innovations. 9. See Note 8. 10. There is some measurement error in this calculation due to the time incongruence between subsidies granted before the beginning of 2000
so that the visionary process includes many participants and different interests, and it combines analysis of enabling technologies,
The outcomes of the process can be strategies to implement a novel policy instrument or a strategy for a region to engage in an active market creation in the context of some promising emerging technology.
they highlight both the value that FTA can bring to the programming process, and also the challenges posed to foresight design and management.
Cuhls, Bunkowski and Behlau provide a case study of the Fraunhofer Institutes'action-oriented foresight process of using global challenges to identify and implemeen research themes for future markets.
as well as to the FTA conference more generally, clearly demonstrate there is a growing volume of valuable and appropriable experiennc in the development and application of fta, in terms of both the process and methods and the organisational context in
which aimed to support decision-makers in their activities, providing for increased confidence and credibility throughout the process.
and complexity of the themes being considered, the level of stakeholder participatiio and, quite frequently, the communication skills of those managing the process.
'in order to emphasize its close connection with the process of formulating strategy. Strategic foresight is defined by Slaughter (1999) as the ability to create
The process of sharing experiences, collective learning and understanding, creation of shared commitmeen to the main decisions to be made
in addition to the ability to explain the reasoning process through clear, consistent and coherent recommendations and outcome pathways.
at the end of a foresight exercise, for stakeholders to say that‘the process was as more important than the product'.
'This simply means that the synergy among them, the network articulation potentiial the intensity of the exchanges and the intrinsically democratic nature of the process benefit individuals and collectivity in more extensive ways than the results of the study themselves (European commission 2011.
A better reasoning process to support decision-making and strategy formulation. Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 247.
Strategic foresight exercise for the sustainable food production process in Brazil..Strategic foresight for the National Council for Scientific and Technological development (CNPQ.
156) The idea is thought a-oriented process aiming to make decisions or share perceptions, free from prejudice, cultural influence,
foresight is considered to be an activity connecctin three different dimensions of the same process: thinking, debating and shaping the future.
Secondly, systematically introducing collective intelligeenc throughout all the phases of the process is the key for achieving success (Glenn 2010.
This also helps to create the environment for an innovative dialogue to be established, perhaps one of the most imporrtan outcomes of any collective intelligence-based process.
However, it is involved not in the implemenntatio process. This means that its credibility depends on the relevance and applicability of the final recommendations.
thereby facilitating the acceptaabilit of the whole process to all the participants. Thus, different groups of stakeholders demand different communication skills and style. 5. The FINEP case study In order to illustrate what was discussed earlier in this paper,
FINEP's strategic management plan was developed in 17 months, in an intense and challenging process of looking into the future of the agency and its role in the national ST&I system.
It required a broad exercise of exploring future perspectives and a systemmati process of questioning ‘what is going on'and‘what we should do differently',
5. 3 Perception Perception is an intentional process for gathering internal and external perceptions and,
and validate the inputs generated in previous stages of the process. The results of these workshops (held with the participation of representattive from government (MCTI and other ministries),
Figure 5. Methodological process for development of FINEP's SMP. 254. C. C. Nehme et al.
The four phases proposed for the development of the SMP (see Fig. 5) were defined to meet the needs of the process, taking into consideration FINEP's culture and experience in planning and management over the years.
The guidelines used in the process include:.Participatory process: involvement of managers, employyees experts and stakeholders in all stages of the process'.
'Senior management commitment: regarding the whole process, from methodology development to the analysis and validation of the results obtained..
Strategic thinking: focused on prospective vision and on the definition of strategic guidelines covering time horizons of 5, 10 and 15 years..
The process was, indeed, very participatory and involved internal and external stakeholders in a continuoou process of adding value to the information obtained,
searching for as much consensus among the participants as was possible. Overall, around 3, 000 people participated in the process in its various stages.
Participation was actually one of the main drivers used to generate durable intangibles. The preoccupations of FINEP's staff and their suggestions about the future of the agency needed to be heard
Among several other possibilities, there were a few aspects of the process which contributed to its success:.
In the organization's prior planning experiences, no other process had managed to gather a similar amount of information,
The process had a very beneficial effect on FINEP, irrespective of the results and objectives achieved..
not only with the process, but also and mainly with its continuity. This represents an important intangible gain,
where the process was as important as the outcomes..Strategic foresight proved to be a powerful instrumeen for long-term planning,
bestowed methodological robustness on the process and provided quality to the results..Changing mind-sets have helped to create a daring
Thirdly, the process of setting research priorities is characterized by a combination of central goal articulation top-down decision-making and decentralization
how deeply the quantitative transformation of resource inputs has affected the design of the policy process.
With the tougher fiscal climate of the 1960s and 1970s and the rise of several political challenges, a new steering model emerged where political priorities invaded the decisionmakkin process more explicitly (Elzinga 1985.
The process surrounding the strategic studies was open (except for the national defense issue. More than two thousand scientists, engineers, policy experts, corporate executives, officials from universities, ministries,
In addition to the domestic process, workshops were held with international experts at the Multi-S&t Minister Forum in Shenzhen in October 2003,
for instance‘harmonious society'and‘indigennou innovation',indicating the contributions and frameworks of STI governance with broader policy process.
The marginal role of industry, particularly privately owned enterprrises as a stakeholder is another weakness in the policy process.
(i e. pharmaceuticals and agriculture) provide an interesting case for our discussiion Historical records for the period 1945 2000 in Taiwan clearly show the process through which the three innovation systems,
Orienting European innovation systems. 141 Innovation refers to a process of introducing a new product process, service or organisational form into the marketplace and the social sphere (OECD and Eurostat 2005;
but often result from a long process involving many interrelated innovaation (Rogers 1995; Freeman and Soete 1997.
while a product or process is being diffused since the introduction of something‘new'in a different context often implies adaptation
cooperation and interactive learning are central to the process of innovation. Such interactions involve not only firms (though these are more common),
As such, guidance can be considered to be an interactive and cumulative process of exchanging ideas between technology producers, users and many other actors..
Building these visions should be an inclusive, joint process, highlighting inter-dependencies and encouraging alignment of actors.
The incompatibility of existing visions which have lead to unsustainable solutions also has to be addressed in this process Create spaces for market formation Market formation means generating protected spaces for the supply side to experiment
or diffused as usually, very few actors (usually termed experts) take part in the dialogue or creative process.
Such bottom-up process was important not only for the European Institute of technology's decision on the new KICS to be launched,
ongoing processes of transformation change may be difficult to detect due to the gradual nature of the process
Institutionalised FTA supports the process of defining the vision and the route Co-ordination mode of governance.
This can address bottlenecks in the framework conditiion hampering the whole process from ideas to innovatiion6 Smart specialisation
Accordingly, the process was designed to engage many stakeholders, while the issues covered and various scenarios developed can be adapted
It was decided to internalise the process as far as possible. CSPR, advising the Executive Board, created a Task Team from amongst its membership with an independent Chair
and validate a visionary‘success scenario'of where ICSU should be Going in the process, conduct a broad consultaation in particular utilising the ICSU General assembly as a forum for member opinions including 170.
The process of building exploratory scenarios provides a structure in which to explore and learn from the interplay of key drivers and their attendant uncertainties.
For ICSU, such a process was intended to inform collective strategic choices about its future role. There are many different approaches to building scenarrio (for a useful short overview,
The approach used for building exploratory scenarios in the ICSU exercise broadly aligned with a process previouusl developed by former Royal dutch shell Group staff,
on how journals and the peer review process evolve. Related to this is the issue of quality control and who will be responsible for this.
and faith-based societies could have implications for the scientific process especially in the international science area.
This could be impacted on by changes to the epistemic organisation of science, the science education process and special organisation and conduct of science.
This has been complemented by opportunities for interested citizens to routinely contribute to the research process. Scientific information is tailored to specific audiences,
whilst at the same time making the whole process of science more open and accessible. Communication is recognised as an essential element of a research career.
Thus, this visionary process includes many participants and different interests. This paper is structured as follows: in Section 2 we discuss the idea of systemicity and its connections to foresiigh and forward-looking policy design.
it is about contemplating signals in a systemic environment through a systemic process of pro-action, action and reaction.
Foresight is about the formation of‘process benefits, 'about aligning expectations and building a‘self-fulfilling prophecy'.
) It is supposed that transitions result from a multilayered process of interactions:.Niche innovations build up internal momentum, through learning processes, price/performance improveements and support from powerful groups..
First, IPRM springs from a roadmapping tradition and thus places significant emphasis on the process and systematic form of information.
Thirdly, because IPRM is more of a process methodology than a generic societal frame the number of participants is limited.
There is a critical lower limit to the number of participants to allow the process overall, but there is also an upper limit that is basically the limit of having a manageable process.
However, the process-orientation also creates latitude and makes it adaptable in different contexts. Fourthly, IPRM also combines bottom-up and top-down perspectivves Nonetheless,
in the case of IPRM one could talk about a process perspective. Top-down information might be utilized during the process,
but the topics highligghte are the outcomes of a systematic process. Fifthly IPRM also places significant weight on forming policy conclusions in relation to long-term visions.
However, in contrast to the long-term emphasis in TM, IPRM adopts a multi-temporal perspective that is dependent on the topics under scrutiny (e g. the long-term in information
and communiccatio technologies (ICT) is very different from the long-term of transport or energy infrastructure),
T. Ahlqvist et al. of ICT in society or specific applications in a defined sector) and the nature of the process and its participants. 3. 2 Policy rationales of IPRM A key aspect of IPRM is that it links the results
Hybridization allows the roadmapping process to escape process lock ins that can result from too rigid a process.
The development of the IPRM method, still an ongoing process, is an outcome of several projects realized at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland.
The knowledge required for building the roadmaps was gathered in a systematic process that combined literature scanning expert interviiew and an assessment workshop.
and a technology roadmap (see Fig. 5). The roadmapping process was completed in three working phases. Phase I was a landscaping phase that was realized in three steps.
The second step was a discussion workshop on the core themes of the process. The third step was the selecctio of the relevant themes for the actual roadmapping process.
Phase II was the roadmapping. First, a specific roadmapping core group was set up. Secondly, an expert workshop with 16 technology experts was organized.
or by the amount of new linkages among the stakeholders formed during the process. Secondly, as we have discussed in this paper,
These societal elements can also be grasped in a systematic roadmapping process. Acknowledgements Toni Ahlqvist wishes to thank the Academy of Finland (grant SA 132628) for the financial support that enabled the writing of this paper.
Insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process',Technology analysis and Strategic management, 20: 369 87. Innovation policy roadmapping. 189 Eerola, A. and Loikkanen, T. 2009) Governance and Research of Nordic Energy system Transition-Summary Report of the Gorenest Project, VTT Research Notes 2505.
Assessing rationale, process and impact',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 73: 761 77. Heiskanen, E.,Kivisaari, S.,Lovio, R. and Mickwitz, P. 2009)‘ Designed to travel?
Overall process and detailed modules',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 72: 567 83. Phaal, R. and Muller, G. 2009)‘ An architectural framework for roadmapping:
Stakeholder engagement and networking is a core element of the process, from the design of the Urban Europe process and the further development of the SRF to the participation in research projects and in implementatiio measures.
The participation initiatives embedded in the process include the establishment of an Urban Europe forum (UEF) 31
Programming Initiative Alignment of research systems Bottom up consultation process networrkin researchers and industrial leaders across borders.
and organisational change that need to be converted into research programmes Alignment of existing national programmes and research strategies in a variable geometry Vertical co-ordination Bottom up consultation process
Here, the establishment of stakeholder platforms for long-term stakeholder engagement in the process and knowledge and collaboration platforms for cumulating knowledge
We consider that foresight holds promise for a structured and responsive process that efficiently mobillise stakeholders
Stakeholder participation was also based on the definition of explicit roles and responsibilities for the different phases of the process. 4. 1. 3 Flexible and responsive management to accommoodat with stakeholder expectations.
In Woodwisdom-Net, some‘slack'in scheduling was built into the process schedule as a risk mitigation measure.
Furthermore, if one regards foresight as a creative process (Salo et al. 2004), then it may be impertinent to fix foresight objectives
and redesigning the whole process to better meet the stakeholder expectations and to accommodate new priorities in the plans.
Towards this end, the modular design is helpful by way of including process and result flexibility.
Process flexibility refers to the ability to make methodologgica changes in how certain results are obtained such as:
However, the process flexibility may not alter the format in which the results are expected to be presented, for instance,
it is possible to have both process and result flexibility, thus to make changes in overall design
and speeds up the implementation (see Fig. 4). Achieving the benefits of foresight activities in support of the implementation of other programming functions is related to the appropriate positioning of foresight design and management in the overall programming process.
and innovation systems Figure 3. Process and result flexibility in modular foresight design for transnational research programming. 202.
This risk of partiality can be limited by introducing a foresight approach into the process. Considering the national differences in foresight capabilities and capacities, particcula efforts in organising training35 for possible national coordinators could enhance the overall quality
Availability of IT solutions for process implementation. The transnational, efficient and effective engagement of numerous stakeholders may lead to time-consuming and resource-intensive processes.
Despite the promising initiated pilots on JP, there is scarce managerial support on how foresight processes could be applied in JP so that it facilitaate the overall JP process.
which serve as guidelines on how to implement a JP process and which also include a section on forward-looking activities
'9. This platform aims at supporting the process for develoopin national/regional innovation strategies for smart specialisation that support the development of well-performing national or regional research and innovaatio systems,
Over 400 stakeholders from all participating countries participated in the process. 26. The assessment criteria for researcher's were:
and dialogue. 2. Defining and clarifying concepts 2. 1 Weak signals alongside emerging issues and wild cards Horizon scanning implies a search process,
a creative process of collective sense-making by way of collecting and synthesising observations that hold potential for the formulation of pertinent future developments and the derivation of actionable implications on decision-making.
One important opportunity in this process is to use web 2. 0 tools in a participatory way to involve interesting potential contributors (in particular a broad variety of experts)
It is about analysing and understanndin the societal contexts behind the entire process of initiation, communication,(r) evolution and disseminattio of issues,
It is also important to complement the validation process with relevant surveys or workshops. It is equally important to utilise automated tools for the clustering and network analysis of issues
interests and needs of those people who are involved in the process. Given also the limitations of the scanning methods
information and the process itself is of crucial importance. At the same time, horizon scanning has to be accepted as an additional source of evidence for policy-making.
Involving policy-makers sufficiently early in the process so that they can provide regular information on the process
and obtain results is important. It is also important that policy-makers are engaged actively especially in interpreting the results and deriving policy recommendations.
a creative process of collective sense-making by way of collecting and synthesizing observattion that hold potential for the elaboration of pertinent future developments and the derivation of actionable implicaation for decision-making.
From the process perspective, this type of direct engagemeen in workshops helps expose policy-makers to the diversity of issues at stake.
JRC-IPTS proposed that a robust portfolio modelling (RPM) screening process (Ko nno la et al. 2007;
horizon scanning is inherently a bottom-up process where results from individual sense-making activities are followed by collective processes where the scanners take stock of
however, this type of‘bottom-up'process implies that the list of prioritized issues may not be very coherent (Bunn and Salo 1993.
Fraunhofer complements these strategic planning activities with a process to identify and strategiicall develop research themes across its institutes.
by adapting its corporate process for defining and developiin research themes across its institutes. Fraunhofer's strategic R&d planning predominantly takes place at the level of its 60 institutes and its six groups of institutes, each with a similar technological scope.
The strategic planning activities are complemented by a process which aims to identify and strategically develop research themes across institutes (Fraunhofer Future topics).
This process is repeated every three years (Klingner and Behlau 2008. In order to differentiate from the rather technologydriive processes of the past,
between the current methods of production, consumption and the future availability of nonreneewabl resources. between a general and simultaneous process of increasing economic interdependence and differentiation. between spatial proximity in the context of accelerated urbanisation
therefore as an appropriate starting point for the Fraunhofer Future markets process. 2. 1. 4 Fourth example.
There was no longstanding process to formulate these types of megatrends or challenges. The Fraunhofer list (internal paper) of 2006 included:
Fraunhofer performed its first future-oriented process at a corporate level to identify strategic future topics across the institutes.
This first approach was followed by a second process in 2008 (Klingner and Behlau 2008. In this approach, the analysis of foresight studies was only a small work package followed by an internal survey to generate topics.
However, dedicated internal funding for each topic was not inherent in the process. 3. 3 Rationale for a new 2010 future-oriented process (demand-driven) The rationale of the Fraunhofer approach started with the assumption that there are obviously science
That means‘real'prototypes or results developed in a collaborative manner are expected from the projects Section 4 explains this process in more detail. 4. Methodology of the 2010 process 4. 1 The concept of the 2010 future-oriented
The process had a first top-down part, in which global societal challenges were analysed and adapted to Fraunhofer-specific challenges.
bottom-up, part of the process. Within a competitive call, institutes teamed up to develop technological solutions to the challenges in the form of collaborative project proposals.
In this first part of the process, mainly politically driven proposed actions as well as technological approaches to solutions of the challenges were identified from the State of the Future report,
The following process steps were performed to distill specific Fraunhofer challenges from the report:(1) Selecting suitable global challenges
With this input, the generalist team formulated the final list of Fraunhofer challenges (see Figs 5 and 6). To summarise the process (see Fig. 6),
when designing and performing the process were to:.Find the right challenges for Fraunhofer: look at global challenges
include different people from Fraunhofer in the process so that in the end there is support for the future Fraunhofer projects..
Ensure broad acceptance through a transparent process: the process is performed in an open and transparent way
so that every institute has a chance to apply and participate. This is necessary for acceptance. 4. 3 Dedicated projects to tackle the challenges The Fraunhofer challenges served as a framework for an internal competitive call.
but the process is rather informal. The single research units are then able to apply for money from the central units to finance their different projects..
when executing such a process in this context, and which may even be helpful in other contexts:.
each organiser of a process has to define for himself what has to be addressed under the heading of global challenge.
Other institutes were involved often quite late in the development and formulation of the problem-solving process.
Fraunhofer future markets. 243 The authors of this paper were involved in the concept and practical application of the 2010 Fraunhofer futureorieente process.
As the projects which can be regarded as the results of this process are still running,
Kolz, H. and Hadnagy, C. 2012)‘ A regional foresight process to cope with demographic change: Future radar 2030 (Zukunftsradar 2030)',International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy, forthcoming special issue.
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