1) biotechnology and chemistry,(2) energy,(3) environment,(4) nanotechnology,(5) production and materials technology,(6) information systems,(7) simulation and, finally,(8) research consortia.
i) GM plants and (ii) Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies. Hence, this research is expected to contribute improving the strategic processes of priority setting in technoinstittutiona arenas both on the national and international level.
first in the area of genetically modified plants and then for the domain of Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies. 2. Background and rationale 2. 1. Tailoring Foresight a revision During the last two decades the field of Foresight has developed a lot through practical experience
%and the recent rate of growth of nanoscience has been near to 14%.%Convergence/divergence. In fields that are established (with a dominant design or in‘normal science'under a given paradigm),
genetically modified plants and Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies. For each domain, we will first characterise the institutional arrangement of the governance arenas and the knowledge configurations,
and programming arena by a stronger institutional steering on EU level. 5. 2. The case of Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies (N&n) Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies (N&n) are seen as the‘top-down'miniaturisation movement of three domains:
microelectronics, materials and biotechnologies and as their‘bottom-up'convergence at the nanoscale. To address field specificities for Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies,
we will examine first institutional arrangements and later on Knowledge dynamics. 5. 2. 1. N&n: institutional arrangements Strategic orientation:
It displays explicitly among the EU policies one dedicated to Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies. The European Technology platform for Nanoelectronics European Nanoelectronics Initiative Advisory Council (ENIAC) was launched in 2004 with the mission to bring together all leading players in the field
and to develop and implement a European vision validated by policy makers and governments. It has produced a Strategic research Agenda (SRA) created through the concerted efforts of experts from industry, academia,
and technology development projects in Nanoelectronics, the nano JTI associates public bodies and funds (the European commission, Member States and Associated States) and private bodies funds through AENAS.
Nano excellence seems to be concentrated highly (role of‘technology platforms'to work at the nanoscale) in 200 clusters where Asia has a strong presence:
An example of the latter type is the Mona roadmap13 aiming at better integration between optics and nanotechnology.
To sum up the analysis revealed two types of Foresight useful for underpinning the European research and innovation system in the area of Nanosciences and Nanotechnologies:(
and for nanotechnology appears as an interesting way for releasing current tensions that block this field of research a strategic orientation that could fit in a grand challengesbaase R&i policy 18.
in the field of nanotechnology the need to foster the forming of new value networks around nano-products
Merging optics and nanotechnology A European roadmap for photonics and nanotechnologies 2005 2007. Exercise aimed to provide recommendations for EU R&d efforts as input for FP7 and Strategic research Agendas in two fields (Nanomaterials & Photonics.
Mona involved 300 experts with different backgrounds from industry and academia. Cf. http://www. ist-mona. org/about/roadmap. asp. 14 http://www. nanologue. net/.
the case of nanotechnology, in: Presentation at the 2nd PRIME Indicators Conference on STI Indicators for Policy Addressing New Demands of Stakeholders, Oslo, 28 30,may 2008. 47 A. Bonaccorsi, The dynamics of science in the nano
Presentation at the PRIME Winter School on Emerging Nanotechnologies, Grenoble, 4 8 february, 2008.48 A. Bonaccorsi, G. Thoma, Institutional complementarity and inventive performance in nano science and Technology research
Biotechnology and nanotechnology topics are continuing players in the abstract sets. Synthetic biology the prospect of engineering cellular processes to operate as bioreactors, labs in a cell,
Typical lists that emerge are at a high level of aggregation (ICT, biotechnology, nanotechnology, etc. or at one level down listing around 100 key technologies.
In the UK, there had been major scenario work on strategies for developing a competitive edge in nanotechnology and literature/expert surveying of social issues associated with this field, in the early years of the present century.
involving nanoscience and engineering, social science, ethics, consumer protection and environmental interests. The working group issued a call for written evidence,
the earlier studies mentioned in the text are the‘‘Taylor Report''(Advisory Group On Nanotechnology, 2002) 25 and (40 see also 41.
Efforts to engage wider stakeholder communities in such deliberation as in the nanotechnology exercise remain rare (and even that exercise stopped short of deconstructing available scenarios
a case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (9)( 2009) 1208 1221.13 I. Miles, UK Foresight:
, Integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies, Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176.25 Advisory Group on Nanotechnology, New dimensions for manufacturing:
a UK strategy for nanotechnology, London, Department of Trade and Industry, 2002 while the original webpage for this text widely cited as‘‘The Taylor Report''has been removed,
IPTS-ISTAG, European commission, Luxembourg, 2001.27 Royal Society and Royal Academy of Engineering, Nanoscience and Nanotechnologies:
''Nanotechnologies and the royal society and royal academy of engineering's inquiry, Public Understanding of Science 16 (3)( 2007) 345 364.40 S. J. Wood, R. Jones
, A. Geldart, The social and economic challenges of nanotechnology, Swindon Economic and Social science Research council, 2003 (available at:
http://www. esrcsocietytoday. ac. uk/ESRCINFOCENTRE/Images/Nanotechnology tcm6-1803. pdf (accessed 29/07/09)).41 S. J. Wood, R. Jones, A. Geldart, Nanotechnology:
1. Rapid and accelerating technological progress in pervasive fields such as microelectronics, ICTS, biotechnology, new materials, fuel cells and nanotechnologies. 2. Increased financial, trade and investment
Advances in nanotechnology, genomics and quantum computing, if realised within the next decade, could fundamentally alter our ways of making materials,
The growing importance of nanotechnology was first apparent as early as 1986 when Eric Drexler issued his first book on the subject. 4 http://www. metsafoorumi. fi/dokumentit/newsletter3 05. pdf. 5 http://hosting. fountainpark. com/strategysignals/.
virtual science discredited for unreliable biased data Biochips for human implants Nanotechnology radically changes production methods
& Security 8 Europe becomes the most competitive economy in the world WW3 Nanotechnology and
The presentations comprised themes surrounding creative futures, energy, governance, health, horizon scanning, innovation and sustainability, law, mobility, nanotechnology, and others.
The case of nanotubes Rutger O. van Merkerk T, Harro van Lente 1 Department of Innovation studies, Utrecht University, P o box 80125,3508 TC, Utrecht, The netherlands
By applying it to a particular application in nanotechnology, we will show that it is possible to trace the emerged irreversibilities.
As nanotechnology is intended the partly, partly unintended outcome of the moves of many actors in industry, research and policy,
and we employ it in our case study. We will show that it is possible to trace emerging irreversibilities for a specific application of nanotubes (Section 3). We will conclude by placing our contribution in a historical perspective of technology assessment
or CTA. 2 2 Constructive technology assessment studies of nanotechnology are at the moment being performed in The netherlands. These studies are part of a Dutch research and development programme that coordinates the efforts of leading research institutes and companies in The netherlands in the area of nanotechnology.
The preceding informal network was formed in 2001 and recently, in November 2003, it received a substantial funding of 95 Million Euro by the Dutch government,
In 1999 a new specialised journal, the Journal of Nanoparticle Research, was established. This indicates the crystallisation of a new scientific community.
3 The fact that we use the emergence of this specialised journal for this paper is the fact that nanotubes is one of the major topics in this journal.
bresearch contributions on nanoparticles, clusters, nanotubes, nanocrystals, nanolayers, and macromolecules surrounded either by gases, liquids or solids, are brought together in this single publication.
These steps make up the method we employ in this paper to perform the case study. These steps are elaborated on in Section 3. The case we discuss in the next section deals with nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
We chose this application of nanotubes in electronic devices because it is as will become apparent a dynamic case among the (still) very few applications of nanotubes in electronic devices that also shows some commercial activity.
How are the technological developments from the scientific viewpoint taken up by society? How are the technological developments from the market viewpoint taken up by society?
nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes Before explaining the details about nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes, we first briefly introduce the area of nanotechnology and nanotubes.
Nanotechnology is a rising star in the set of new and emerging technologies. Many countries and firms feel the need to explore
and stimulate its possibilities. The future of nanotechnology has become an important topic for technology firms, policy makers and research institutes.
Typically, when new technologies emerge, they are accompanied by promises of all sorts. Earlier examples are biotechnology, genomics and microelectronics,
Although nanotechnology is still in its exploration phase, industry, governments and research institutes already have high stakes in the future application.
and large firms invested over $2 billion in nanotechnology worldwide in 2002 13. No single definition can be given for nanotechnology,
as definitions abound 14. We define it as the ability of controlled manipulation at the nanoscale (1 100 nm) 5
in order to create revolutionary new materials and systems that relate directly to the nanoscale. The ability to control matter at such small length scales got a big push by the development and improvement of a variety of microscopes (e g.
the atomic force microscope, AFM) 6 in the mid-eighties, which made the visualisation of the atomic region more and more accessible for scientists.
Nanotechnology is seen as an enabling technology, which means that it enables different industries to improve their products,
Nanotechnology can for example, enable precise targeting of drugs (pharmaceuticals) or make computer screens flexible (electronic industry). In this paper we focus on a special kind of nanosized particle, the carbon nanotubes,
which has the same basic structure as the bucky ball. The term nanotube is used generally to refer to the carbon nanotube,
which can be visualised as a sheet of chicken wire, which is rolled up into a cylinder where the loose wire ends seamlessly join (Fig. 4). 7 In the remainder of this paper we will use the term dnanotubet instead of dcarbon nanotubet.
The promising developments of nanotubes, and nanotechnology in general, have led, at least according to some analysts, to a nanotechnology hype 13.
Various images about nanotechnology were brought into the world by media, spokespersons, etc. that sketch the seemingly unlimited possibilities that nanotechnology has to offer.
Typical examples are very small robots that can conduct operations inside the human body or an elevator into space based on a nanotube cable.
While these examples may be farfetched, they feed expectations by various actors in society (e g.,, the public, politicians, firms.
On the 5 1 nm is approx. 1/80,000 of the thickness of a human hair
or six hydrogen atoms in line. 6 IBM researchers (G. Binnig and H. Rohrer) received the Nobel prize for their discovery of the scanning tunneling microscope (STM).
and is therefore a powerful tool to investigate structures at the nanoscale. This discovery was the beginning of a whole range of microscopes achieving the same precision,
the nanotubes are formed directly. R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1099 other hand there are growing concerns about the development
of nanotechnology. NGOS and the media became aware of nanotechnology and addressed their concerns. Here again, we see topics that relate to the very far and speculative future such as nano-systems that control
(and reproduce) themselves, but also immediate concerns that are based on today's science, such as toxicological effects of nanoparticles 13.
After this general introduction of nanotechnology and nanotubes, we now turn to the application that will be the subject for the remainder of the paper.
A promising application of nanotubes is to use them as electromechanical8 components in nonvolatile memories. 9 Nonvolatile means that the data remains intact
when the power of the electronic device is turned off. For example, for personal computers, you can continue your work where you left it the previous day,
In the boffq state (Fig. 6), the nanotubes have a certain distance between them. The lower nanotube is semiconducting,
the upper nanotube is metallic. 10 The metallic nanotube will bend towards the perpendicular semiconducting nanotube
when both are charged electrically (electromechanical process). The nanotubes will then stay in this position due to the Van der waals forces. 11 These forces cause the nanotubes to remain their position,
even when the power is turned off, giving the memory its nonvolatile character. The positions can be determined by measuring the resistance (directly related to the flow of electrons) between the nanotubes.
In the bonq state the resistance is much lower, which allows determination between zero or one.
and patented by Fig. 4. A rolled up single sheet of carbon atoms (graphene) to visualise a single-walled carbon nanotube. 8 Electromechanical means that an electrical current can induce mechanical movement. 9 Memory,
Nanotubes can have both properties which depend on the geometry of the single-walled carbon nanotube 17.11 The Van derwaals forces are the physical forces of attraction
and repulsion existing between molecules, which are responsible for the cohesion of molecular crystals and liquids.
In the hybrid solution the lower nanotube is replaced by a semiconducting structure created by common lithography techniques. 12 Then a layer of nanotubes is deposited
and the unwanted nanotubes are etched away (again with common lithography). G. Schmergel, T. Rueckes and B. M. Segal founded Nantero in 2000 (Rueckes being one of the inventors of the proof of principle.
Nantero is developing NRAMK a high-density nonvolatile random access memory chip using nanotube technology. The company expects to deliver a product that will replace existing forms of memory, such as DRAM, SRAM and flash memory, with a high-density nonvolatile duniversal memoryt 18.
The company plays an important role in the development of nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes. 3. 1. Tracing dynamics of expectations The three levels in the framework can be specified in relation to the case.
nanotubes used in nonvolatile memories, the level of the technological field; nanotubes in electronic devices, the level of the society;
and nanotubes as part of nanotechnology. Such a case specific typology gives a focus for each level
and is therefore useful to distinguish what the boundaries are of the case. 3. 1. 1. Society The scientific developments,
and understanding of nanotubes production and characteristics13 have led to expectations on the level of the society.
A spokesperson in favour of nanotube developments is Richard Smalley (Rice university, Houston, Texas). Considering the following statements from Smalley 21, page 1:
Q With this statement Smalley stipulates (from a scientific point of view) a very bright picture for nanotubes.
Fig. 5. Architecture of suspended nanotube memory 16.12 Lithography is a common method used in the computer chip manufacturing industry to produce desired structures in materials. 13 The research agenda on nanotubes have,
controlled growth and applications of nanotubes. This also implicates that the variety of research topics has broadened.
, production capacity of single-walled carbon nanotubes) to applications and the production of the applications.
bcarbon nanotubes are already found in cars and some tennis rackets, but there is virtually no environmental or toxicological data on them.
bgovernments should declare an immediate moratorium on commercial production of new nanomaterials (editorial: which includes nanotubes)
and launch a transparent global process for evaluating the socioeconnomic health and environmental implications of the technology.
From the market side the expectations focus on the possibilities that nanotubes might have to improve or revolutionise existing products.
Already nanotubes are used to strengthen materials (e g.,, tyres or tennis rackets) and production facilities are set up to deliver the demand for nanotubes (MWNT
and SWNT) that is expected for the coming years. Arnall 13, page 14 states here (taking a market perspective:
bthe most important material in nanotechnology today. Q Such statements give rise to the belief that nanotubes have much to offer in terms of applications.
This is indeed the case when we look at how broad the application areas for nanotubes are addressed generally:
pharmaceuticals, electronic devices, material production, energy technologies, etc. Concluding, the expectations on the societal level show a contradiction in the sense that on the one hand nanotubes are used without regulation
and on the other hand there is a public call (from various groups) that regulation is needed. However, the fact that nanotubes offer great promises for various industries is acknowledged. 3. 1. 2. Technological field After the discovery of the single-walled nanotube in 1993,
possible applications of nanotubes for electronic devices came out of the scientific community 21. Using the straight tubes as wires in chips was one of the first options.
In 1998 Cees Dekker's group 31 at the Delft University of Technology (Netherlands) turned a nanotube into a transistor (the basic building block of computer chips.
This made it theoretically possible to build processors (the central computational unit of personal computers) out of nanotubes.
However, the expectations are that commercialising this option still lies far ahead (at least 10 years.
Nanotubes can also be used to emit electrons. This opens up the possibility to use them as so-called field emitters to produce flat (even flexible) displays.
The electrons emitted by the nanotube are pointed at a layer of phosphor, which as a consequence lights up.
Since the publication of Rueckes et al. 16, where they introduce the architecture of nonvolatile memory based on nanotubes,
it is clear that building these memories is one of the possible applications of nanotubes in electronic devices.
when the opportunities for nanotubes in electronic devices are discussed: bbig markets, apart from materials, in which nanotubes may make an impact,
include flat panel displays (near-term commercialisation is promised here), lighting, fuel cells and electronics. This last is one of the most talked-about areas but one of the farthest from commercialisation, with one exception,
Nanotechnology should give the answers here. 3. 1. 3. Research group The expectations of using nanotubes for nonvolatile memories started with the Nature publication of Charles Lieber's group 16.
In 2002, James Heath's group at the University of California (Los angeles) reported that guiding the growth with an electric field could solve the problem of growing straight nanotubes 25.
This scientific result solved the problem of growing straight nanotubes. Deposition of nanotubes into a parallel array (as is needed to create the hybrid solution) can be done in multiple ways.
One can individually manipulate the nanotubes into the right position however due to huge amount of nanotubes that needs positioning, this is no option.
The second option is to use an electric field to grow the (straight) nanotubes onto the substrate 25 (as discussed above.
A third way is to use a flow to guide the previous made straight nanotubes into position.
Charles Lieber's group 14 Cientifica is the business information and consulting arm of CMP Cientifica, providing global nanotechnology business intelligence and consulting services to industry and investors worldwide.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1103 reported the latter method in 2001 26.
These scientific results solved the problem of deposition of the nanotubes onto a substrate. The scientific results,
as mentioned above, reinforced the expectations that nonvolatile memories could be produced. This can be shown by a statement of Ball 27 in an article where he discusses these results:
bthis proof of principle raises hopes that a nanotube lattice could form computer memory, storing one bit of information at each junction.
Here, Nantero being the only company working on this technique tries to mature the given technique (proof of principle) into a usable method for producing nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
bcreating this enormous array of suspended nanotubes using standard semiconductor processes brings us much closer to our end goal of mass producing NRAM chips.
buniversal memory has been a dream for the semiconductor industry for decades we fell that Nantero's innovative approach using carbon nanotubes
bthe proprietary manufacturing approach will enable for the first time the ultra-large scale integration (ULSI) of carbon nanotube-based devices in a deep sub-micron semiconductor fabrication line.
In the near future, these innovations will allow NRAMK to be one of the first mass manufactured nanotechnology products.
This is a clear sign that the media see Nantero as a promising company to take nanotechnology to the market.
Concluding, different developments in basic research have given the building blocks that can be used to develop nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
processes 3. 2. 1. Society Are the expectations (concerns) about the toxicity of nanoparticles (incl.
Nanotubes) taken up by policy makers and translated into programmes/regulation that reply to these concerns? Some initiatives have started over the last few years;
www. nanotec. org. uk) of nanoscience and nanotechnologgy The goal is to carry out an independent study of likely developments
and whether nanotechnology raises or is likely to raise new ethical, health and safety or social issues
handling and use of nanoparticles in industrial processes and products, as well as in consumer products. The results are expected to indicate risks to workers and consumers,
when nanotubes are grown, it is until now impossible to determine the electronic character (metallic or semiconductor) beforehand.
Therefore, after growing, you end up with a mixture of metallic and semiconductor nanotubes. This is a problem,
because often you need specific characteristics of the nanotubes in order to get a working application. To specify this example further,
Cees Dekker's group at Delft University, showed in 1998 31 that a single semiconductor nanotube could be turned into a transistor.
Without the ability to grow nanotubes with the right characteristics beforehand a processor based on nanotube transistors is impossible to produce. 3. 2. 3. Research group Restrictive factors in the development of technologies are repeating phenomena that end up on the agenda of research groups.
Scientists observe hurdles for further development of a promising application (guided by the expectations) and start to work on solving the problems at R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1105 hand.
or are still the growth of straight nanotubes, precise deposition of the nanotubes on the substrate,
and the separation of metallic and semiconductor nanotubes. Because not all problems were solved over the last years,
Nantero adapted a (proprietary) hybrid solution that allows for some errors, and metallic and semiconductor nanotubes do need not to be separated.
So, over the last few years some problems were solved and others were overcome by adapting the design.
Q At the same time, basic research groups work on fundamental insights in for example, controlled growth of metallic or semiconductor arrays of nanotubes.
in the matrix in Fig. 7. These findings also give answers to the questions as proposed in Fig. 2. Nanotubes as part of nanotechnology Next to the acknowledgement that nanotubes offer huge possibilities,
there is an open discussion on the possible toxic effects of nanoparticles (incl. nanotubes) on the environment and inside the human body.
Nanotubes as part of nanotechnology Apart from the concerns on the possible toxicity, industry started to produce nanoparticles with a strong growing increase in capacity.
The market then focuses on the possibilities nanotube applications promise to improve or revolutionise existing products.
Nanotubes in electronic devices The market focuses on a selection of promising electronic applications based on nanotubes.
Nanotubes used in nonvolatile memories Nantero tries to mature the technique (proof of concept) into a usable method for producing nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
Nanotubes used in nonvolatile memories Step by step the problems around producing predetermined nanotubes and applying them for nonvolatile memories are solved (straight growth and deposition).
Nanotubes in electronic devices The academic community addresses a wide variety of electronic devices based on nanotubes. These options are based on advances in the understanding of
and the control to determine (beforehand) the characteristics of nanotubes. However, existing hurdles also restrain further developments.
that arose around nanotubes and more specifically nanotubes in electronic devices, and nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes (Fig. 8). We have shown that results of research groups directly give rise to expectations for promising applications and change the agendas for the future.
Accumulation of research results (for instance, straight growth and precise deposition of nanotubes) solves the hurdles that before hindered promising applications to become reality.
In the specific application we discussed in this paper this led (on the market side) to the realisation of a prototype of nonvolatile memories of Nantero.
and the business community that the technology (or even nanotechnology) is actually possible of producing workable products for the electronic industry.
The scientific community (related to the application of nanotubes in electronic devices) changed in the sense that since 1993 more and more attention was drawn to nanotubes.
This indicates a growing attention for various aspects related to nanotubes as part of nanotechnology. This at the societal level held discourse is marked as an emerging irreversibility.
Nanotubes as part of nanotechnology Societal discourse on nanotubes Nanotubes as part of nanotechnology Societal discourse on nanotubes Nanotubes in electronic devices Recognition of a specific set of promising applications Nanotubes
used in nonvolatile memories Nantero as a surviving central player in realising nanotube applications in nonvolatile memories Nanotubes used in nonvolatile memories Possibilities where opened up by scientific research results that took away hurdles in using nanotubes for electronic devices
Nanotubes in electronic devices More research groups work on similar problems related to nanotube applications Society Technological field (Research group Basic research Market Fig. 8. Emerging irreversibilities located within the three-level framework.
and discussion In this paper we proposed a route to deal with the intrinsic uncertainties of a new emerging field like nanotechnology.
As nanotechnology is still in the early phases of development co-construction by all possibly relevant actors is not straightforward.
we note that the emerging character of nanotechnology provides research opportunities for innovation and technology studies.
To study nanotechnology while it is unfolding at this very moment gives the opportunity to observe (for example with the method proposed in this paper) the construction of the technology in a more symmetrical way.
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28 Nantero, Nantero, Inc. creates an array of ten billion nanotubes bits on single wafer standard semiconductor processes used.
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The netherlands) working on Constructive technology assessment of emerging technologies and nanotechnology in particular. His research focuses on characterising emerging technologies and anticipating on prospective technological developments.
His current research focuses on prospective studies of nanotechnology. R. O. van Merkerk H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1111
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