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www.voicechronicle.com_tech-and-science 2015 00001.txt

#El Ni#o Finally Arrives May Lead to Average Rainfall In July 2014, climatologists had predicted a 70 percent chance of a weak to moderate El niño in last August along with an 80 percent chance of its occurrence by November. The predictions turned out to be wrong last year but last month the National oceanic and atmospheric administration Climate Prediction Center (CPC) reported a weak El niño condition. Sea surface temperature anomalies across the western and central equatorial Pacific is the primary driver of El niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO. However, prior to the declaration of weak, moderate or strong El niño, the atmosphere must display signs of its response to the sea surface temperatures anomalies. The climatologists finally recorded the atmospheric response to relatively warm seawater temperatures in February along with increasing low-level westerly winds over the equatorial Pacific and enhanced rainfall over the western equatorial Pacific. Thus last week a weak borderline El niño was declared. According to Jan Null, a former National Weather Service lead forecaster and PG&E meteorologist and an expert on El niños and La niñas and their relationship to California weather Central Coast receives near average rainfall due to weak and moderate El niños. But strong El niño can lead to about 140 percent of above-normal rainfall. However, in three of the last 10 El niño years, El niño conditions which developed at this time of the year March, April and may have produced only above average rainfall. As per the current predictions, there is a 50-60 percent chance that El niño conditions will continue through the Northern hemisphere into this summer. In fact, climate models suggest that El niño conditions may continue into next winter. Historical evidences indicate that the prediction of the ENSO has always been very difficult. However presently it can be stated that El niño has arrived finally o

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