all the cases dealt with topics that are likely to spur different interpretations among the actors and stakeholders.
He has published widely in the field of foresight, on topics such as roadmapping, emerging technologies and infrastructures,
and Lu 2002) examines a technology of interest by search and retrieval of abstract records on the topic.
She is focusing on research on emerging science and technology topics. Alan L. Porter is Director of R&d for Search Technology, Inc.,Norcross,
She is focusing on research on emerging science and technology topics. References Cagnin, C.,M. Keenan, R. Honston, F. Scapolo,
and 12 panels accordingly discussed the topics and question items to be surveyed. They set 94 areas (groups of interrelated topics) with 832 topics.
Questionnaires from the viewpoint of a time span of 30 years until 2040 were carried out twice,
Delphi topics that were forecasted to be realized by 2025 were extracted and reframed as a form of scenes. 2. 3. 3 Future society as discussed by the younger generation.
The statements of Delphi topics are matched to the keywords in each scenario. If a topic statement has a keyword,
that topic is given a score of that matched keyword. In this way, all PAGE 10 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 the Delphi topics are given scores by scenario according to their similarity,
which are expressed as a score matrix. Based on the matrix, Delphi areas (groups of relevant topics) and scenario themes are positioned on a two-dimensional map by correspondence analysis.
Correspondence analysis is used a widely method to grasp the relations between two different categories of data.
The procedure is shown in Figure 2. 4. Expected innovation 4. 1 Relations between Delphi topics and scenarios On average,
one scenario has 4 percent of Delphi topics with scores greater than 100, and 75 percent of them with scores less than 30.
there are 329 Delphi topics with scores greater than 100 in at least one scenario, around 40 percent of all topics,
because closely related topics vary from one scenario to another. They are regarded as topics that have a closer relationship with solving the challenges.
In Figure 3, the Delphi topics for each scenario are classified in decreasing order of score.
The scenarios that contain many highly scored topics can be considered to offer a greater scope for contributions from science and technology.
Five such scenario themes include: 1.‘‘Realization of a low-carbon society through the active use of the Smart-grid'';
On the other hand, the scenario themes with many low-scored topics are characterized by a low level of matching,
which may indicate a lack of concrete measures and proposals in the scenarios or a shortage of relevant Delphi topics.
and the Delphi areas (groups of interrelated topics) are summarized in a two-dimensional map (Figure 4). In the map,
The scenarios and Delphi areas Figure 3 Distribution of relevant topics by scenario theme PAGE 12 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 closely related are grouped together in reference to the results
because a lot of Delphi topics are related closely. The group of clusters related to energy, resources, and environment on the left side can be regarded as indicating the first group of expected innovation toward resolving the challenges in the future society
and two out of the five scenarios that many Delphi topics are linked closely to. In addition
and Delphi topics Of the 12 Delphi panels, the number which each scenario has links to ranges from zero to nine.
and shown as square dots in Figure 4 are linked to topics in at least half of all panels.
Another focus is Delphi topics in the key areas categorized as‘‘Others''in Table I that is, the topics in Panels 2, 5, 9, 10,11, and 12.
Figure 6 shows how many scenarios each topic has relations to. Here, topics that score 30 or more are regarded as being related to a scenario,
and about 25 percent of all topics in each scenario meet this requirement. Panels 2 and 5 have around 20 percent of topics that have no relation to scenarios
and most of them are related to at most three scenarios. On the other hand, Panels 10,11 and 12 have many topics that are common in several scenarios
and around half of the topics are related to more than three scenarios. Panel 9 has both specific topics and common topics.
Regarding base or common technologies related to ICT (Panel 2) and to earth/space (Panel 5),
specific topics tend to contribute to specific issues, whereas when it comes to technologies related to hard and soft infrastructure (Panel 11 and 12),
and to manufacturing (Panel 10), single topics tend to be related to solutions for several issues.
The extent of expected diversity in science and technology depends on scenario themes and the extent of relation to scenario themes depends on scientific or technological fields.
This reflects complexity of the relationship between scientific or technological development and social benefit coming from it,
and show the framework Figure 6 Ratio of topics that are related to several scenarios PAGE 16 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 toward its realization.
but are embedded rather in specific topics and focus areas within the organizational structure. The relevance of a set of foresight results therefore needs to be explored individually for each research policy making unit.
when research policy making only focuses on defining new research topics. In this paper we demonstrate how existing approaches for transferring foresight results into strategic planning can be applied to research policy making.
Thus, a basic common understanding amongst political stakeholders of the topic and its challenges is achieved. Well-structured summaries based on desk research help to prepare the discussion
anticipate relevant topics, sensitivities, and group dynamics. The upfront interview results are consolidated usually and presented in structured form at the beginning of the workshop to kick-start discussions.
B generating concrete topics with a need for further research and development and with high potential that have not sufficiently been addressed by governmental support so far;
So, in Russia, three foresight projects related to the topic of natural resources were conducted. They were interconnected and the results of the earlier projects were used in the subsequent studies to accomplish the overall objective,
(which correspond to critical technologies) and more than 900 topics. The thematic areas include: B Information and Telecommunication systems;
Eighty-two topics were formulated for these five thematic areas, in the form of briefly described S&t results, promising technologies or innovation products (e g.‘‘
B Delphi topics; B survey methodologies; VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 43 B expert panels;
In the framework of the Delphi survey each topic was evaluated by the following criteria: B importance to Russia;
The characteristics of five major topics for the thematic area‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''are given in Table
Russian experts considered the most important topics in this area to be accelerated‘‘Technologies for and efficient recovery of damaged lands, landscapes and biodiversity,
''For these topics, the most urgent support measures were derived (see Figure 1). So, according to the experts,
which were identified on the basis of the most important and well-developed FS1 topics combined into extended technology FS2 groups.
Table I Major topics of the‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''thematic area No. Topic Importance indexa Expected time of developing S&t solution Possible results (percentage of experts;
This index shows the relative importance of each topic according to aggregated expert opinion VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 45 New objectives of the study also demanded adjusting evaluation criteria for the technology groups (accordingly to the FS1 results.
The characteristics of the five most developed topics in the‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''thematic area are given in Table II.
and major promising research topics were identified. At the same time, the FS2 results showed that the Russian management system in the natural resources area could be more effective
In the FS1 framework S&t topics were assessed by different criteria, and in the FS2 framework technology groups were assessed (identified on the basis of the most important and well-developed FS1 topics).
The FS2 criteria for the evaluation of technology groups were identified mostly on the basis of the results of FS1 (see Table I). National S&t Foresight:
and Table III The interrelation of the projects Research focus Main results Questions for further investigation FS1 The evaluation of topics by the following criteria:
financial and infrastructure) for the most important and well-developed topics and their market prospects FS2 The evaluation of technology groups (as combinations of the most important and well-developed topic on the basis of the results of FS1) by the following criteria:
Design/methodology/approach Delphi topics related to sustainable energy were collected from strategic foresight reports of Japan South korea and China,
especially for Delphi topics, to systematically detect and analyze future technology development and interactions. 2. Methodological approach 2. 1 Delphi method background Delphi was developed in the 1950s by the US RAND Corporation
Delphi is a subjective-intuitive research method that aims at a consensus PAGE 56 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 on a particular topic among a group of experts,
Meanwhile, the communication effect of Delphi studies and the value of the process are acknowledged also. 2. 2 Basic information for the scanned Delphi topics The Delphi topics used for sustainable energy are chosen from foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China.
By proper selection of sustainable energy related topics, the Delphi topics were extracted first based upon their original category in the foresight reports.
topics were selected according to the knowledge of a domain expert. After selection, these Delphi topics are mapped then by the following taxonomy framework. 2. 3 Mapping of Delphi topics 2. 3. 1 Taxonomy framework for mapping.
Delphi topics collected from the scanned foresight reports are diversified somehow and have subtle differences in the scope of their descriptions.
Therefore, the topics need to be restructured or mapped to a proper taxonomy framework, and then technology trends can be identified easily based on the mapped result.
In this paper, the content of the Delphi topics was mapped according to a patent classification system the eighth edition International Patent Classification (IPC) published by World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO),
which is recognized worldwide. The IPC, established by the Strasbourg Agreement of 1971, provides for a hierarchical system of language-independent symbols for the classification of patents and utility models according to the different areas of technology to
and the environment Energy Participation (Delphi second round) 202 experts 390 experts 177 experts Counts of Delphi topics related to sustainable energy 35 76 83vol.15
The taxonomy framework of IPC codes is used for the mapping of the content of Delphi topics mainly based on the following reasons.
as described in the technology vision of a Delphi topic, to the present or near future technological trajectory.
The main difference between patent documents and Delphi topics lies in the fact that a patent describes in longer text an invention that has been proved of concept and for
while Delphi topics describe a technology that can be in any stage between research exploration to commercialization,
In addition, the content of Delphi topics depends on the time horizon of the foresight activities. For example, the foresight activity of Japan has up to a 30-year time horizon,
Also, survey results of Delphi topics are collective intelligence from the expert interaction of scanned countries
The key steps are from Step 3 to Step 7. In Steps 3 and 4, the keywords of the Delphi topics,
Table II Overall procedures for mapping of Delphi topics Procedure Description Step 1 Collect Delphi topics from foresight reports of Japan, South korea and China Step 2
Select topics related to sustainable energy based on the original category in the foresight reports and confirmed by domain experts Step 3 Identify the technology/product keywords
or terms in each Delphi topic through content analysis Step 4 Assign the corresponding IPC codes (main-group level
or above) for these technology/product related terms in each of the Delphi topics analyzed Step 5 Distinguish with the identified IPC codes as a source
In addition, Table IV shows part of the WIPO IPC-Technology Concordance Table utilized during Step 6. After each Delphi topic is mapped to the IPC code
The Delphi topic in the example is from Japan, and involves‘‘Polymer electrolyte fuel cells for automobile use''.
the source/application technology for the Delphi topics are identified through causal effect analysis, namely the source IPC code and the application IPC code are distinguished by the judgment of a domain expert.
the Delphi topics need to be screened again based on their realization time for cross-country comparison. The time horizons surveyed for Delphi topics in Japan are‘‘time of technological realization''and‘‘time of social application''.
''The time horizons surveyed for Delphi topics in South korea are‘‘time of international realization''and‘‘time for domestic realization''.
''The time horizon is not specific in the Chinese Delphi topics but the forecasting time horizon for the whole foresight activity was set at up to the year 2020, by
which technology that can be realized before the year 2020 is preselected. Therefore, Delphi topics with a realization time before the year 2020,
which is‘‘time of technological realization before 2020''for Japan, ‘‘time of international realization before 2020''for South korea and all Delphi topics from China, are used as the main target for analysis and for comparison.
Twenty-six Delphi topics in Japan which counts for 74.3 percent of the total Delphi topics,
were regarded as having realization before the year 2020. The remaining six and three Delphi topics are regarded as having realization between the years 2021 and 2030 and after the year 2031, respectively.
In South korea's case, most of the Delphi topics were regarded by experts as having realization before the year 2020;
only one topic regarded as having realization between the years 2021 and 2030. In China, all the topics were regarded as having realization before the year 2020.
Table V summarizes the realization time distribution of Delphi topics in Japan, South korea and China. 3. 1 Mapping technology interactions in Delphi topics 3. 1. 1 Summary result of the mapping in three countries.
The mapping results are demonstrated using the 35 technology fields suggested by WIPO. The summary results of the mapping for technology interaction prospected by Japan,
South korea and China is shown in Figure 2. The y axis denotes the source technology and the x axis denotes the application technology.
Interactions between source and application technology that can be identified in Delphi topics in either the Japan,
South korea or China reports are labeled with symbols. Different symbol represent different meanings. For example,‘‘O''means the technology interaction can be identified simultaneously in Japan (JP), South korea (KR) and China (CN),
'''means the technology interaction can be identified only in Japan (JP) and China (CN), and so on. Interactions within the technology field are shown not in Figure 2. By viewing the union result of the mapping from the application technology side, conventional energy technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
and the possible Table V Realization time distribution of Delphi topic in Japan, South korea and China Before 2020 2021-2030 After 2031 Time horizon Topics Ratio (percent
) Topics Ratio (percent) Topics Ratio (percent) Japan 26 74.3 6 17.1 3 8. 6 South korea 75 98.7 1 1. 3
The overlapping result for technology interaction mapped by the Delphi topics from the three countries can also be seen in Figure 2. The overlapped interactions identified among the three countries include source technology 12 (Control) to application technology
The keywords extracted from the content of the Delphi topics that link with the overlapping result of the mapping are summarized in Table VI. 3. 1. 2 Mapping result of Japan.
From the mapping result of Japan, nine Delphi topics of the total 26 Delphi topics (34.6 percent), show interaction within single technology.
Interaction across technologies can be deduced from the remaining 17 Delphi topics, and the interactions are demonstrated by a directional social network analysis (SNA) with a tool named Nodexl 1 in Figure 3
A total of 20 interactions were identified from these 17 Delphi topics. The Delphi topics that show only interaction within a single technology are demonstrated by a loop symbol.
Table VI Keywords of Delphi topics that link with the overlapping result of the mapping in the technology interaction Source technology Application technology Country Key words in Delphi topics 12
(Control) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Energy management technology/electricity storage technology/efficiently use distributed generation;
In South korea, 25 of the total 75 mapped Delphi topics (33.3 percent) show only interaction within a single technology.
Interaction across technologies can be deduced from the remaining 50 Delphi topics, and the deduced interactions are demonstrated by a directional social network analysis (SNA) in Figure 3. In total,
57 linkages are identified from these 50 Delphi topics. A shown in Figure 4, the technology interactions of the Delphi topics before the year 2020 are much more divergent.
From the application technology point of view, technology 1 (Electrical machinery apparatus, energy) receives technologies from technologies 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 23 (Chemical engineering), 27 (Engines, pumps, turbines), 30 (Thermal processes and apparatus), 31 (Transport
interactions across WIPO technologies for Delphi topics from Japan PAGE 64 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 (Civil engineering).
In China, 37 of the total 83 mapped Delphi topics (44.6 percent) show only interaction within a single technology.
Interaction across technologies can be deduced from the remaining 46 Delphi topics, and the deduced interactions are demonstrated by a directional social network analysis (SNA) in Figure 4. In total 50 linkages are identified from these 46 Delphi topics.
As shown in Figure 5, technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) is a hot application technology.
Figure 4 Technology interactions across WIPO technologies for Delphi topics from South korea VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 65 engineering;
3. 2 Mapping interactions across technologies from the top 25 percent important Delphi topics in each country Since the foresight results of these three countries were intended to be used for reference in priority setting
Therefore, the top 25 percent important Delphi topics before 2020 are selected according to the foresight result in each country,
and the deduced linkages for the selected topics are demonstrated also by a directional social network analysis (SNA).
seven Delphi topics and ten linkages are identified. Most of the interactions are related to application technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, Figure 5 Technology interactions across WIPO technologies for Delphi topics from China PAGE 66
jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 energy. The important source technologies comprise technologies 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 24 (Environmental technology) and 35 (Civil engineering.
The content of the related Delphi topics contain‘‘Technology for electric power generation and synthetic fuels manufacturing using the gasification of coal, biomass,
The content of the related Delphi topics contain‘‘CO2 recover, sequestration and storage technology'',Hydrogen supply infrastructure networks for fuel cell automobiles'',Geologic disposal technology for high-level radioactive waste,
''In Figure 7 (South korea's result), 19 Delphi topics and 22 linkages are identified. One of the main focuses is technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
while the content of the Delphi topics contain‘‘Distributed power generation with energy conversion efficiency of more than 40 percent and large-scale solar power in practical use'',
''‘The commercialization of high efficiency and ultra-low price thin film solar Figure 6 Technology interactions across WIPO technologies in top 25 percent important Delphi topics from Japan
and the related Delphi topics contain‘‘Development of high energy density of the large battery materials for electric vehicles and various transportation use'',Fuel cell vehicles for practical use,
and the related Delphi topics contain‘‘Verify the principle of superconductivity at room temperature'',High-efficiency power generation equipment (efficiency 90 percent) commercialization,
and Figure 7 Technology interactions across WIPO technologies in top 25 percent important Delphi topics from South korea PAGE 68 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013
The related topics contain‘‘Development of bio-information technology that can use Terahertz in biomedical operation,
''The mapping distribution of the Delphi topics of China shows that about half of the important topics are interacted self (Figure 8;
The content of these topics comprises‘‘Large-capacity long-distance transmission of electricity'',Deep-sea oil and gas mining'',Coal (direct, indirect) liquefaction,
The content of these topics comprise‘‘Large scale network security and defense system for electricity'',Effective supercritical/ultra supercritical power generation technology'',Key Figure 8 Technology interactions across WIPO
technologies in top 25 percent important Delphi topics from China VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 69 technology of solar cells,
The content of these topics comprises‘‘Circulating fluidized bed flue gas desulfurization'',Coal gasification-based poly-generation technology'',Energy consumption analysis for construction and building environmental systems and energy saving optimization technology,
''In summary, by mapping the important topics from the Delphi survey results of Japan, South korea and China,
In mapping of China's important topics, almost half show interactions within a single technology,
Also, technology 23 (Chemical engineering) is emphasized especially in China's important topics, and is to be used as a source technology to technology 24 (Environmental technology).
Also, the IPC code has some limitations in mapping the content of Delphi topics in describing a system innovation in which technology
or in cases where the the Delphi topics describe a technology with vague scope. Third, since the mechanism of incorporating of foresight results into research
These are very large topics with fuzzy boundaries. This means that they cut across scientific disciplines policy domains,
The problem so far has been the superficial treatment of topics with little guidance of what might happen in the future.
and share their views on this topic at future FTA conferences. 2. Sense or nonsense of applying qualitative
For instance, quantitative analysis of this kind offers valuable information for the development of S&t Delphi survey topics,
and Popular Press abstracts Trends over time in number of items Technological needs noted Types of topics receiving attention Spin-off technologies linked Reinhard Haupt, Martin Kloyer
She is focusing on a research on emerging science and technology topics. 407 L. Gao et al./
and SC (1999) Bowonder et al. 3 have reviewed briefly this topic, mainly focusing some of the lessons learned from evolutionary theory involved in anticipating changes in evolutionary trajectories,
devoted particularly to this topic. This upswing in evolutionary economics was in great part due to the renewed interest in the discussion on long waves in economics during the last two decades
and dcreative destructiont of older ones during economic depressions (for a review on this topic see Devezas-Corredine, Ref. 12).
The aim of this paper is to show what topics have been addressed and what main actors were involved in the future-oriented activities conducted prior to and after the establishment of national nanotechnology programs.
and engagement of the actors dealing with the topic, but at the same time there is a high risk, namely that only positive visions that go along very well with the personal value systemare taken up and further developed.
'A key problem with horizonscanning is that it normally adopts a scattergun approach which leaves each topic treated superficially and in isolation, with little guidance on interlinkages and cross-impacts,
The 2011 conference focused on an important topic, the need and potential of FTA to address disruptive transformations in response to grand societal challenges.
and topics, hailing from many different contexts and academic disciplines. The selection of papers presented in this Special issue all share the aim of enhancing the usefulness of FTA
and there is a need for more systematic research on this topic. Acknowledgements An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 12 13 may 2011, JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville, Spain.
The aim is to increase insight into topics such as the level of acquaintance and experience with scenario analysis methods in strategic policy-making,
deciding which topics will be relevant in the future), for picking up new signals (as a‘radar), 'and, more generally, for formulating strategy
, a certain incident puts a certain topic on the agenda. At the national level, government commitment was emphasised also,
The aim was to identify relevant research topics and the supporting actions needed to shape the future of intelligent manufacturing through international cooperation in each of,
so that new topics would be identified. The scenario work was devised and coordinated by JRC-IPTS. Project partners were engaged throughout this activity with support from JRC-IPTS.
These topics have been shared and fine-tuned with the input of experts around the world, including the roadmapping support group,
These combined presentations, roundtable discussions and small groups'debates, always brought in different views on the same topic.
The second online survey and the wiki platform also enabled different parties to outline RI topics in
of which RI topics were more important for certain regions and were expected to have a greater impact in terms of sustainable manufacturing 33 and IMS.
Previous research on this topic has shown that there is a large gap between the adoption of digital TV and the actual use of its interactive features and applications, i e.,
trends and topics in a predefined thematic field Project 2. 4 Working group Provide a setting to explore future topics
1) identifying the right topics on which to focus (effectiveness), (2) providing a setting for the partners to explore
and exploit new topics and challenges successfully (efficiency) and (3) stakeholder management. Effectiveness and efficiency are addressed by several activities in the network:
performance and conformance Projects 3. 4 Spearhead Research grants additional research funds to facilitate collaborative research activities in high-potential topics Projects 3. 5 Business modeling Supports
innovation management and IT appears to be suitable to perform collaborative innovation activities in selected topics.
and future orientation based on the CIM. 5. 2. 1. Networked foresight activities The partners use EICT's competences in foresight mainly on a project basis and for specific thematic topics;
'and on a project basis. When one of the network partners requests futures research for a selected topic EICT creates a network tailored for that topic
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