With this purpose in mind, this introduuctor paper sets out the general framework for approaching this topic.
3 and discusses amongst other topics the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool to set the agenda for more specifically focused foresiigh activities and other future-oriented technology analysis (FTA TOOLS.
There was also some attention in the press, especially on the topic of robotics which was pushed forward as a typical cluster where no main stakeholder could be found.
which they had to assess topics based on statements about the future. In a RT Delphi, the particiipant not only judge twice but they can change their opinion as often as they like
In a nutshell, the Delphi survey revealed only a small number of topics where experts did not reach a consensus about the likely future development.
although it would have increased the risk of including unrealistic topics in the survey. To achieve such an objective a method based on identifying weak signals would be required
and public controversy Alignment with policy-making agenda schedule Political relevance of topic Political culture open to informal participation Political connections
Traditionally, the Fraunhofer R&d portfolio has been technologydriiven A corporate Future topics process has been establisshe in order to foster a needs-oriented approach.
Five challennge were formulated subsequently to serve as a frame for the new Future topics programme. Within the prograamme institutes are called upon to form consortia
In the second block (see Fig. 1‘Topic selection'),the correct identification of the subject and its interacttio with other studies and government activities
63 technological topics were examined by experts, using Delphi technique and considering four dimensions of analysis:
techno-economic, strategic, environmental and social Identification of an initial list of 63 technological topics Identification of seven priority technological topics, considdere‘robust'Multi-criteria analysis:
identified technological topics were evaluated using hierarchical criteria and analysis of robustness Final report and dissemination of results Water resources Establishment of ST&I priority agenda aimed at guiding future investments made by governmental agencies in six predefined themes Quality
The topics studied frequently overlapped and there was very limited coordination between the research teams (Su 2004:
New knowledge (including also non-technological knowledge) has to be developed on topics relevant to grand challenges among a distributed landscape of actors.
and helped in identifying new programme topics, such as disaster risk and urban health. It also highligghte a number of areas,
but also more short-term topics with systemic characteristics. Thirdly, because IPRM is more of a process methodology than a generic societal frame
but the topics highligghte are the outcomes of a systematic process. Fifthly IPRM also places significant weight on forming policy conclusions in relation to long-term visions.
However, in contrast to the long-term emphasis in TM, IPRM adopts a multi-temporal perspective that is dependent on the topics under scrutiny (e g. the long-term in information
What levels are utilized depends on the topic: in some cases it is enough to map just the enabling technologies,
and environmennta protection, is a rising topic in the emerging markets of the Victorian construction industry.
technology roadmap on‘extending natural resources'In the final part of the case study section we present an example of a technology roadmap constructed as a subset of the transformation roadmap (see Fig. 5). The topic of the exemplary roadmap is‘extending natural resources'.
and followed by the identification of research/innovation topics and societal challenges. Programme design and initial funding commitments are made,
Based on the results of the last workshop for funding organisaations three working groups were formed such that each consisted of funding organisations with shared interesst in the topic of the working group. 3. 1. 2 EMIDA ERA-NET27.
Three working groups with funding organissation were composed based on similar interests in future research topics Mapping of recent foresight exercises with support of FPU Project pays attention to research capacity
and access to research programmes and results across all countries Mapping and analysis of existing foresight exercises for urban regions and for other non-region specific topics relevant for urban development allows gaps
or transnational level Proposals for (strategic research topics for commissioning at EU level taking into account ongoing and planned research in European countries Facilitate cost-effectiveness of research-commissioning by trying to establish
desirable futures and pathways towards these futures for specific Urban Europe topics Use of a pilot call to improved understanding of future trends
and the organisatiio in parallel of foresight activities on selected Urban Europe topics. In Woodwisdom-Net, modularity was pursued, for example
as well as criteria to assess potential call topics, such as providing input and insights for developing new concepts and providing input for research roadmaps.
A refined method of exploratory scanning is offered by applying a more bottom-up approach where the analyst examines the observations and topics that different (independent) scanning communities focus upon,
The raw material may be different observations about topics such as scientiifi and technological developments within various areas, and may be obtained from research papers, laboratory results, dissemination about new theories, experiments, prototypes etc.
Step 4 Framing the connected weak signals into clustered topics. Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 213 Step 5 Tentative modelling of emerging issues into possible emerging issues.
Although a wide variety of potential participants was addresssed the results showed that the topics were often either very general or very specific.
E. Amanatidou et al. scientists communicate about controversial topics in science. Today it is used only by a small minority.
even though topics or issues may already be known, they can still be considered to be emerging if they are considdere to be of relevance for the future
Conferences are a place where existing strategies/policies are discussed usually Policy implications assessment Medium High High Associated policy implications of emerging issues are analysed by comparing emerging issues identified with topics
and strategically develop research themes across institutes (Fraunhofer Future topics). This process is repeated every three years (Klingner and Behlau 2008.
Blind et al. 2001) to highlight topics that should be assessed in science and technology. Megatrends are used also as a part of the evaluation in market studies and analysis (Frost and Sullivan, 2010.
and strategic areas of excellence is the identification of specific strategic future topics at the corporate level,
the identification of strategic future topics that will produce future contract research markets for Fraunhofer; serving urgent societal needs;
Fraunhofer performed its first future-oriented process at a corporate level to identify strategic future topics across the institutes.
and these topics were fostered by funding Fraunhofer-specific internal projects. This first approach was followed by a second process in 2008 (Klingner and Behlau 2008.
In this approach, the analysis of foresight studies was only a small work package followed by an internal survey to generate topics.
so that ultimately 12 future topics were formulated (Klingner and Behlau 2008). Although the processes differed slightly in the methodology used,
'At the end of the 2005 and 2008 FTA PROCESSES, 12 innovation topics, that became 12 Fraunhofer future topics were defined.
Defining the topics served as the background for the institutes to shape and develop the topics further:
it provided them with a kind of discussion platform. Equipped with roadmaps and claims for internal and external communication,
institute consortia contributing to the future topics could apply for further internal and external funding. However, dedicated internal funding for each topic was not inherent in the process. 3. 3 Rationale for a new 2010 future-oriented process (demand-driven) The rationale of the Fraunhofer approach started with the assumption that there are obviously science
-and technology-driven approaches that make use of longteer thinking, but that the opposite (needs-driven) approaches are rare.
each future topic would be promoted and developed by at least one dedicated (and centrally funded) R&d project of significant size.
SINTEF does not have a formal process for defining tts overarching topics. The SINTEF research and technology development portfolio is defined at the level of the single institutes.
A necessary prerequisite for acceptance by the institutes is a sound and transparent method in selecting these topics.
As soon as such a topic is found, the most appropriate consortium will be chosen to carry out this project.
Klingner, R. and Behlau, L. 2008)‘ Fraunhofer Future topics: FTA as part of the strategic planning of a distributed contract research organisation',paper presented at Third International Seville Conference on FTA, held Seville, Spain, 16 7 october 2008.
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