Significant methodological and even philosophical tensions are arising as a result of this shift. Open processes based on high levels of participation allow for far greater input of information from different perspectives,
This instruumen adapts the methodology of technology roadmapping to addressing critical innovation policy challennge at the level of national and regional innovation systems, within a global context.
Key methodological elements are: the involvement of key stakeholders from the very beginning; clear establishment of objectives and strategic goals;
as well as to the FTA conference more generally, clearly demonstrate there is a growing volume of valuable and appropriable experiennc in the development and application of fta, in terms of both the process and methods and the organisational context in
It represents a merger of future methods with those of strategic management. It is defined by Habegger (2010) as a deliberate attempt to broaden the‘boundaries of perception
The methodologgica approach must induce out-of-the-box thinking, by the cumulative introduction of different visions on the subject, open discussions and the use of creative methods.
lies in the ability to develop tailor-made methodologies, by employing a number of tools and methods.
A key factor in success is to start the exercise after a robust collective planning Step in the pre foresight phase of this methodological approach (see Section 4),
the methods and tools to be applied are considdere and strategies to think out-of-the-box are discussed
and stakeholdders applying a variety set of methods and tools, and a suitable combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches.
and for applyiin a variety of methods and tools to bring the main issues impacting a given foresight exercise to the table.
It takes into account the methodological structures proposed by Horton (1999) and Conway and Voros (2002),
This perception is the key point of the forsight methodology, which can be defined as a:..
methods and tools that may fit the needs of the exercise better, to be mobilized. Participatory management structures are recommended highly to allow for‘on the fly'decisions to be made once the exercise starts.
This activity was part of the methodology preparation of the strategic foresight exercise. The main ideas and designed strategy on how to implement out-of-the-box thinking at FINEP are shown in Fig. 3. A vision of a possible, successful future for FINEP,
The timeline tool was chosen as an alternative to the method of scenarios, because the uncertainty and compleexit of the environment demanded an approach which offered stakeholders a tool for collective reasoning without the need to definine strategies or elaborate decisions,
as the method of scenarios normally requires. A‘timeline, 'as conceived in this case, is the representation of a temporal sequence of possible future events,
The methods used were interactive, to ensure mobilization, particippatio and commitment at all levels of the agency
Figure 5. Methodological process for development of FINEP's SMP. 254. C. C. Nehme et al.
The use of distinct methods techniques and tools is one of the characteristics of future studies,
These authors have proposed a classification of methods and techniques by the type of approach (exploratory or normatiive) method (qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitattive or source of knowledge (creativity, expertise, interaction or evidence.
Of the 33 methods and techniques identified by Popper, the FINEP SMP has employed the following:
regarding the whole process, from methodology development to the analysis and validation of the results obtained..
and define strategies for the application of methods, tools and techniques according to the methodological approach utilized
and foresight, relying on a diversity of methods and techniques and, above all, having flexibility and resilience in its application,
and the use of methods that rely simultaneously on evidence, creativity, expertise and interaction, bestowed methodological robustness on the process and provided quality to the results..
Changing mind-sets have helped to create a daring but not unrealistic vision transforming Brazil through innovaationto motivate people
Johnston, R. 2010)‘ Methods and tools for breaking mindsets and bringing new perspectives to the table',paper presented at Foresight International Seminar:
towards integration of the field and new methods',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 71: 287 303. Santos, M m.,
The methods applied should promote expertise and experience but also creativitty These spaces could also be created at different levels of governance (regional, national,
there seems to be considerable richness of foci to different types of transformaations In a number of exercises the methods aim to explore
whereas a number of other methods are applied to develop future plans and action-oriented recommendations for decision-making.
because routines in strategic policy processes do not always match with the characteristics of required methods.
. 2012)‘ On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues',Science and Public policy, 39: 208 21.
The paper explores the methodological background of the IPRM method and outlines its policy rationale.
This paper discusses how the methodology of roadmapping could be applied as an instrument in systemic policy contexts.
the paper introduces a methodology for roadmapping systemic transformations. The IPRM method combines roadmapping and the forward-looking evaluation of policy development paths.
IPRM integrates the approach of technology roadmapping including such contents as enabling technologies, applications, products, markets and drivers with the perspectives of systemic policies and policy instruments.
journals. permissions@oup. com outline the methodological background and the policy ratioonal of IPRM. In this section, the features of IPRM are discussed also.
The function of the case studies is to demonstrate how the IPRM method can be utilized in the mapping of systemic policy-level trajectories.
a framework for forward-looking policy design 3. 1 Methodological background IPRM is an integrative method that combines the two cultures of roadmapping with a sensibility towards systemic aspects of socio-technical transformation.
Thirdly, because IPRM is more of a process methodology than a generic societal frame the number of participants is limited.
This method is known as backcasting. The second way is present-oriented, i e. to define the present state
and present-oriented methods. Hybridization allows the roadmapping process to escape process lock ins that can result from too rigid a process.
The development of the IPRM method, still an ongoing process, is an outcome of several projects realized at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland.
The function of these case studies is to demonstrate how the IPRM method can be utilized in the mapping of systemic policy-level trajectories. 4 Case study 1:
management solutions based on robotics Distributed small-scale energy production Remote collaboration products Enabling technologies Methods and processes for environmental impact assessment of products and services,
At present, LCA is standardized a method and many types of LCA software are available. The basic AMR services are maturing.
At present, much emphasis is placed on developing methods and processes for the environmental impact assessment of products and services, including carbon footprinting.
The modelling and simulation technologies required for LCA methods are also available. Wireless sensors as well as image processing technologies help in the object recognition needed for automatic waste recycling.
In the long term, advanced modelling, optimization and artificial intelligence methods will enable intelligent products, recycling and energy grid solutions.
and virtual products. 6. Conclusions This paper has depicted an IPRM methodology in the context of forward-looking policy design.
decisions on what methods are used and how they are applied, which stakeholders take part and how long the project phase will last.
and methods as long as the results are presennte in a similar manner. This approach is illustrated by the Urban Europe case,
methodologies and understanding of transnational research programming needs to be accumulated, calling for institutionalised forms of knowledge repositories.
In this respect, particular design structures ensuring minimum autonomy in foresight activities and methodological choices (for instance, horizon scanning and generation of innovation ideas among a wide and diverse set of stakeholders) can alleviate the risk of co-optation,
Method of Coordination, COST, KICS, European Innovation Partnerships. Thematic instruments are the Standing committee on Agricultural Research (SCAR) in the field of agriculture,
The open method of co-ordination in innovation policy',Journal of European Public policy, 11: 249 66.
On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues Effie Amanatidou1,,
amana@otenet. gr. Future-oriented technology analysis methods can play a significant role in enabling early warning signal detection and pro-active policy action
This paper analyses the use of different horizon scanning approaches and methods as applied in the Scanning for Emerging science and Technology Issues project.
and methods is subject to contextual and content issues. At the same time there are certain issues which characterise horizon scanning processes,
methods and results that should be kept in mind by both practitioners and policy-makers. Keywords: emerging science and technology issues;
methods and networks for effective scanning and analysis. 2 Horizon scanning places great emphasis on building a holistic framewoor
Building on the advantages and disadvantages of each tool and method, Section 4 evaluates the different approaches and tools based on evaluation criteria reflectiin the information needs of policy-makers about new and future opportunities and threats.
while the issue-centred approach concentrates on identifying core documents (primary signals) that describe substantial Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 209 parts of potential issues.
A refined method of exploratory scanning is offered by applying a more bottom-up approach where the analyst examines the observations and topics that different (independent) scanning communities focus upon,
evoking Twitter activity around SESTI and more traditional methods such as a survey. The vast amount of data coming from these sources can be analysed in terms of potential signals of change,
Automatic tools are seen as methods to support the scanning for potentially highly important weak signals and to monitor
Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 211 In the SESTI project the following tools were used for the scanning:
Some of the methods are suitable for obtaining specific information like expert reviews, surveys and visits to conferences and seminars while other tools like the initiation of a wiki and the active use of blogs and micro-blogging can encourage wider participation and dialogue.
These methods can be mapped within a methodological framework (see Fig. 2). The focused expert review was mainly based on internet scanning with the use of search engines.
This method has certain limitations. First, the selection of the experts in the field could bias the outcomes.
Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 213 Step 5 Tentative modelling of emerging issues into possible emerging issues.
in order to draw conclusions about the implications for policy. 3. 2 Comparative analysis of methods and tools applied during the SESTI project The focused expert review could be used for the entire scanning process.
Wikis and surveys are participative methods, and thus the representativeness, level of expertise, and commitment of participants are critical factors for success. The survey conducted in the SESTI project was confronted also with the limited time and visibility of the contributors.
Policy-makers who were interviewed within the SESTI project noted the importance of methods that allow for identifying the connections, clustering of signals and the stakeholders behind them.
and methods in horizon scanning. 215 want to be successful by giving the right alerts to policy-makers at the right time in order not to over-occupy their busy agendas.
Evaluation of scanning approaches and methods The evaluation of the different approaches and methods faces several challenges.
First, each of the methods described above has advantages and disadvantages depending on the specific circumstances under
some methods are better for the initial phases of the scanning process, while others fit better into the analysis phase (cf.
Table 2). In this regard an evaluation across the different approaches and methods is difficult as their success is highly contextual.
Any useful evaluation of different methods based on the information needs of policy-makers should apply to methods
or combination of methods that cover all the differren phases of the scanning activity. Following the framework of tools
and methods presented in Fig. 2 certain combinations of methods can be created to provide a complete evaluation along the scanning process.
Table 4). Table 5 evaluates the three combined approaches based on the criteria mentioone in Table 3. The SESTI experience of applying these methods (not necessarily as combined above) revealed that it is importaan to have several alternative methods
and means to cover the needs of the different scanning phases as the same method may have advantages with respect to one criterion
Table 3. Evaluation criteria for scanning approaches and methods Connections, clustering of weak signals and degree of relevance to a specific area Duration of weakness of signal, also associated with time at
Overall, the features of the participatory methods enabling verification and filtering of results as well as policy implications
At the same time, semi-automated methods are appreciated, especially those drawing on large expert communities, as they enable systematic scanning and retrieval of‘inside'information in the first scanning phases as well as in verifyyin the results.
The value of the more‘conventional'methods like expert surveys, literature review and conferennc visits is more relevant for targeted tasks requiring expert inputs like reviewing the state-of-the-art in a given field, searching for comprehensive reports on weak signals
For the alerting function a comprehensive method is needed to scan and assess early warning signals that may indicate potential emerging issues from of a variety of media and sources.
For the more creative function this method needs to be complemented with tools and participative processes that,
For literature review and selection of conferences same reference framework Verification method Cross-referencing with other articles Discussions with experts Discussions with experts;
conferences further outlook in literature Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 217 Table 5. Analysis of three combined approaches across evaluation criteria (a) Semi-automated, participatory approach (b
and exploratoor scanning methods for the alerting function as well as the creative function. Each type of approach and method has specific advantages and disadvantages.
Overall, it can be said that the added value of emerging issue scans lies in the strategic combination of all available tools to broaden the spectrum of possible signals
Given also the limitations of the scanning methods as outlined above, the specific nature of the field examined,
As facilitated by policy workshops Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 219 model-based forecasting. In general, model-based forward-looking results are taken into account far more seriously by policy-makers than horizon scanning data
, J. and Rudd, M. 2011)‘ Methods for collaboratively identifying research priorities and emerging issues in science and policy',Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2: 238 47.
Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 221
Facing the future: Scanning, synthesizing and sense-making in horizon scanning Totti Ko nno la 1,,
horizon scanning can benefit from methods of multi-criteria decision-making and network analysis for prioritizing, clustering and combining issues.
Furthermore, these methods provide support for traceability, which in turn contributes to the enhanced transparency and legitimacy of foresight.
By building on the encouraging experiences of this exercise, we outline methodological steps in support of comparable scanning processes which facilitate the incremental development of crosscutting challenges
the scoping of a scanning exercise necessitates fundamental methodological decisions that partly demarcaat which signals are likely to appear relevant.
Methodological advances have been pursued, for instance, in the Framework programme 7 Blue sky Foresight projects on emerging issues that shape European science and technoloog (Amanatidou et al. 2012.
Scanning systems may comprise quantitative methods such as bibliometrics, cybermetrics and patent analysis, which may also convey patterns of emerging issues.
The deployment of these methods and the interpretation of their results in terms of requisite actions builds on individuua and collective sense-making activities.
Thus, it appears that whatever the methodological basis of scanning is, sense-making lies at the heart of providing well-founded support for policy-making. 2. 3 Stakeholders:
for instance may allow new meanings (Nonaka 1994) to be synthesized through the shared development of crosscutting challennges From a methodological perspective, internet-based tools for continuous idea generation (Graefe et al. 2010), idea management
This suggests that horizon scanning can benefit from methods that provide explicit support for the synthesis of relevant combinations (e g. by using multi-criteria models in the assessment of issues
whereby the role of such methods is to foster sense-making (but not to overrule it).
Such methods can also support traceability, which contributes to transparency and the legitiimac of the exercise.
Vjðwþ w1v j 1+w2v j 2+w3v j 3 In contrast to conventional multi-criteria methods, RPM admits incomplete weight information expressed through linear
policy coordination (horizontal, vertical, Open Method of Coordination; institutional changes; and the role of EU in relation to global governance.
2012)‘ On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues',Science and Public policy, 39: 208 22.
Brummer, V.,Salo, A.,Nissinen, J. and Liesio, J. 2011)‘ A methodology for the identification of prospective collaboraatio networks in international R&d programs',International Journal of Technology management, 54
between the current methods of production, consumption and the future availability of nonreneewabl resources. between a general and simultaneous process of increasing economic interdependence and differentiation. between spatial proximity in the context of accelerated urbanisation
Although the processes differed slightly in the methodology used, their common conceptual background can be characterised as portfolio-oriented
That means‘real'prototypes or results developed in a collaborative manner are expected from the projects Section 4 explains this process in more detail. 4. Methodology of the 2010 process 4. 1 The concept of the 2010 future-oriented
A necessary prerequisite for acceptance by the institutes is a sound and transparent method in selecting these topics.
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