| Alternative method (7) |  |
| Analytic method (16) | |
| Method (1301) | |
| New method (38) | |
| Proposed method (8) | |
| Qualitative method (21) | |
| Traditional methods (5) | |
| Alternative method (7) | |
| Analytic method (16) | |
| Method (1301) | |
| New method (38) | |
| Proposed method (8) | |
| Qualitative method (21) | |
| Traditional methods (5) | |
there has been little systematic attention to conceptual development, research on improved methods, methodological choice, or how best to merge empirical/analytical methods with stakeholder engagement processes.
In addition, the idea was to analyse possible overlapping fields of practice among technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.
1. Methodological selection This session focused on experience and guidance on which methods to use for what purpose,
One of the main issues introduced was methodology selection and the perennial conflict between the search for methodological perfection and ease of implementation.
One of the concepts discussed was that of robustness in the methodologies on offer when the constituency making use of these results views outcomes.
The issue related to combination of methods was reviewed and in particular, using multiple methods in controlled experiment mode.
These approaches offered further refinement and support to the development of robustness in spite of added complexities in implementation.
The open discussion examined the role of experts in various methodologies and debated the question of the weight to be given to expert input
There was a concern expressed that the existing guides to methodologies had moved not forward to encompass these developments.
two contributions addressed the broadening of well-established quantitative methods to mesh with qualitative methods. This approach should provide enhancement to models in the future.
Devising acceptable evaluation methods to deal with visionary work in processes is not easy and raises a challenge for the FTA COMMUNITY.
new brainstorming methods, experience curves, applying foresight to the concept of continuous social transformation with responsibility,
whether the foresight community itself was locked-in in methodological terms given the age profile of methods. 7. This issue The articles of this issue only partly cover the richness of the papers delivered at the Seminar.
therefore dealing with new methods of FTA, and other two articles focus on analysis of methods and tools that have been
or could be adopted from other fields (i e. dimporting ideast session). In the first paper Gordon, Glenn and Jakil, describe boundaries
and challenges related to methods and approaches to improve the value and utility of FTA. Among the methodological issues that could be tackled to improve the FTA field
The first contribution from van Merkerk and Van Lente, describes a methodology to map and understand the dynamics of emerging technologies.
(and enabling technologies requires the introduction and use of new methods. The article illustrates the use of roadmapping as a tool for TA contributions to the sustainability assessment of emerging technologies.
They stimulate the development of new insights on simulation methods and evolutionary programming. The paper shows that concepts applied to biological evolution are applicable, through useful metaphors, to economics and technology assessment.
to review in a fairly hands-on way methodological experience thus far, and to outline the substantial methodological challenges ahead. 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
There are several types of foresight approaches and methodologies, each aiming at different purposes and stressing different facets.
Another experience that led the way towards Adaptive foresight was the use of scenario methodologies in the first Swedish National foresight exercise. 15 Based on these experiences
what follows. 15 For the methodological aspects of the first Swedish National foresight exercise, see Eriksson and Stenström 33.16 ICTRANS The Impact of ICT on Transport,
More normatively oriented, functional innovation systems approaches take a different stance on innovation system analysis 46.25 The methodology outlined in this section is largely based on the so called Shell/GBN tradition 47.
The workshop methodology is inspired also by Eden and Ackerman 48.26 As mentioned under Phase 1 this boundary is not always clear
In addition to structured brainstorming, simple gaming can be a useful methodology here to identify how different types of actors could choose to position themselves
Methodologically, backcasting tends to rely on qualitative methods in order to capture the full range of aspects that can potentially come into play in the course of a scenario pathway,
Methodologically, interactive methods can be used to discuss different options from a range of viewpoints. In order to come up with new and fresh ideas for policy options
The phase-by-phase methodology is, however, not so much affected. Therefore it suffices to say that this is the counterpart at the individual client organisation level of Phases 4 6. 3. 2. 10.
The practical tools and methods are available, based on many Fig. 1. Positioning recent forward-looking activities in the framework of Adaptive foresight. 31 31 For Details on these projects
what is still missing is the integration of these methods in a continuous and long-term strategy development process.
Bridges Between Science, Society and Policy Technology assessment Methods and Impacts, Springer, Berlin, 2004.9 S. Joss, S. Belluci (Eds.
A. Eriksson, Scenario-based methodologies for strategy development and management of change, in: M.-O. Olsson, G. Sjöstedt (Eds.
Change 69 (2002) 929 951.31 K. H. Dreborg, E. A. Eriksson, Best practice guide for assessment methods, Report D21 of the DG VII
accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract In this paper, we address challenges of organizing future-oriented consultation processes within European coordination tools for‘Open Method of Coordination'such as ERA NETS
despite methodological advances (see e g. 4, 5), not much attention has been devoted the challenges of coordinating foresight activities at the international level 3. Apart from explicitly initiated local,
we discuss the deployment of Internet-based methods and multi-criteria analyses based on Robust Portfolio Modeling (briefly RPM Screening;
Specifically, we discuss how several methods (e g.,, Internet-based group-support systems, facilitated workshops, RPM Screening) were employed to foster vision-building,
which is a variant of the Robust Portfolio Modeling (RPM) methodology for the analysis of innovation ideas and innovative concepts 9, 10,18, 19.
we have discussed the use of decision support methodologies in the development of a shared research agenda inwoodwisdom-Net, an ERA NET on wood material research that is an example of the coordination tools for EU innovation policies.
In this context, systematic methods like RPM Screening can lend structure to consultation processes so that inputs from one level of analysis (e g.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 4 TFAMWG Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis:
toward integration of the field and new methods, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303.5 L. Georghiou,
tools and methods, Res. Policy 29 (4 5)( 2000) 657 678.6 J. P. Salmenkaita, A. Salo, Rationales for government intervention in the commercialization of new technologies, Technol.
Methodologies and selected applications Knut Blind Regulation and Innovation Competence Center Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, Germany Berlin University of Technology, Faculty Economics and Management
The paper presents three methodologies appropriate for performing regulatory foresight. First, an approach is presented which makes use of science
In addition, we developed methodologies and approaches which represent revisions or adjustments of existing foresight methodologies, but also completely new approaches to identify ex ante major future challenges for regulatory policies.
The overview of methodologies in Section 2 starts with a list of possible methodologies which are also relevant for assessing the impact of public R&d policies.
At first we briefly describe the selected methods and concentrate then on a specific empirical validation of the methods.
In the final chapter, we conclude with a brief critical evaluation of the methods based on the experiences collected in the project,
Finally, we derive requirements for future research. 2. Overview of regulatory foresight methodologies In order to provide a first overview of methods to conduct regulatory foresight,
we start with an evaluation matrix (Table 1) presenting methodologies to assess the impacts of different policy instruments.
Here, legal frameworks as an object of assessment are part among the set of other policy instruments, like R&d funding,
matching policy instruments and methodologies Innovation surveys Econometric models Control group approaches Cost benefit analysis Expert panels/peer review Field/case studies Network analysis Foresight/Technology assessment
Benchmarking Financing R&d Provision of R&d infrastructure Technology transfer and innovation diffusion Legal frameworks (IPRS, standards and regulation) Integrated projects Networks of excellence Methodology:
we will not discuss all methodologies appropriate for performing ex ante impact assessments of regulations and standards.
Consequently, we will consider the following methodologies in the remainder of the paper: indicator-based approaches surveys Delphi studies. 3. Methodologies 3. 1. Indicator-based approaches 3. 1. 1. Introduction and definition New developments in science and technology
often pose challenges for the existing regulatory framework, or call for the creation of new regulatory frameworks. Changes and dynamics in science and technology can be identified
and requires further methodological efforts. 3. 1. 3. General assessment Science and especially technology indicators are a possible source to detect challenges for the regulatory framework in the future.
Conditions for methodology application: Science and technology indicators are easily available in publicly provided or commercially distributed databases.
General assessment of the scope and limits of methodology: The scope of science-and technology-based indicator approaches is certainly in detecting possible fields
Whereas the first methodology in Table 1 is focused too narrowly on innovation surveys2, in this section we cover surveys
Conditions for methodology application: Surveys are rather time-intensive, since they require the development of a questionnaire, the performance of a survey either via traditional postal mail or via online survey, the collection and cleaning of the data and finally, the analysis of the data.
Finally, surveys have a high acceptance as a methodology if certain aspects and shortcomings are considered adequately.
which cannot be covered by indicator-based methodologies. Hence, they are able to provide unique data in this respect.
& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 General assessment of the scope and limits of methodology In contrast to other strategic aspects of organisations, assessing the future needs for standards
The Delphi methodology belongs to the subjective and intuitive methods of foresight. Issues are assessed, on which only uncertain and incomplete knowledge exists.
There is not a single method, but all agree that a Delphi study requires an expert survey in at least two or more rounds.
The methodology facilitates a relatively strongly structured group communication process, revealing conflicting as well as consensus areas.
-size wireless communication instruments capable of changing specifications, such as centre frequencies, band width, modulation method,
and error correction method, by software operations. 2010 3. 57 3. 79 2. 64 2. 43 3. 43 Practical use of optical communication systems
but revealed also some very important new methodological insights. Conditions for methodology application: Foresight methodologies including scenario,
Delphi and even simulation approaches are rather costly and time-consuming, involving numerous experts. They require a very careful performance of the often multi-stage methodological processes.
Furthermore, most foresight approaches actively involve stakeholders and their inputs. Foresight methodologies can also be used to assess ex ante the impacts of just released,
General assessment of the scope and limits of methodology: Delphi surveys are flexible and can be applied in all areas, covering all possible future driving forces,
and assessment of methodologies Although we cannot refer to a broad sample of regulatory foresights, we have been able to collect relevant experiences from some selected studies
Table 3 constitutes an attempt to summarise the information included in the methodologies section and the results and experiences collected.
For a deeper appreciation of the methodology of interest, it is advised to refer directly to the specific section.
However, this is only a starting point of an assessment of regulatory foresight methodologies. Despite the availability of a number of foresight methods, there is a scope
and a need to look for further methodological improvements towards regulatory foresights focusing on future strategies and actions concerning regulation and the special needs of regulatory bodies.
Based on the few existing experiences with surveys, it can be concluded that this methodology allows the identification of very specific future regulatory issues.
Stakeholders from the user and even the consumer side are much more difficult to select based on the presented indicator methodologies
and assessment of regulatory foresight methodologies Methodology Type Data requirements Strengths Limitations Indicators Quantitative also providing qualitative information Adequate science
the scenario technique is an appropriate methodology, since often the regulatory option ranges between massive interventions in the market and doing nothing in a liberal laissez-faire policy style.
This short methodological assessment of the few different regulatory foresight methodologies discussed already makes obvious that a simple transfer from applying the methodologies to identify emerging science
in order to achieve an adequate methodological base which allows the performance of regulatory foresights producing valid, reliable and convincing results to be used in policy-making processes,
but also specific methodologies focusing on regulatory foresight have to be developed, which address regulation-specific dimensions, like possible implications on competition, indicators, like regulatory indicators,
-Baden, 2001.7 G. Tassey, Methods for Assessing the Economic impacts of Government R&d, National Institute of Standards & Technology, Gaithersburg, MD, 2003.8 K. Blind, B. Bührlen, C
This paper discusses, based on a first round application in the field of micro and nanotechnologies for single cell analysis, the methodology of such a new approach.
in a way it is a bottom-up way of methodology/tool building, growing with each new FTA exercise at this network level.
Change 72 (2005) 567 583.13 E. Lichtenthaler, The choice of technology intelligence methods in multinationals: towards a contingency approach, Int. J. Technol.
Manag. 46 (2 march April 2003) 47 52.15 K. Matzler, M. Rier, H. H. Hinterhuber, B. Renzl, C. Stadler, Methods and concepts
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 2004, pp. 13 14.28 T. Fleischer, M. Decker,
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 2004, pp. 13 14.29 S. Kuhlmann, et al.
Methodology to Explore Technological Transitions, Final report PRET project, Universiteit Twente, Enschede, 2002.66 B. Elzen, F. W. Geels, P. S. Hofman, K
although sharing some methodological characteristics and similarities in terms of time horizons and audiences addressed, usually have different aims, scopes and levels of implementation.
Foresight is one such method since it deals with uncertainty by requiring the development of alternative Fig. 1. Conceptual framework for the emerging‘knowledge societies':
and the second round exploited less formal and rigorous methods and produced results of potential interest to multiple parties.
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.10 A. Havas, Terminology and Methodology for Benchmarking Foresight programmes,
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.16 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology Futures analysis:
toward integration of the field and new methods, Preliminary Briefing Paper in proceedings EU US Seminar:
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.17 M. Ladikas, M. Decker, Assessing the Impact of future-Oriented Technology assessment, Paper 1 in proceedings EU
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, Seville, May 13 14 2004.18 Technopolis, et al. Using Logic models, The results of a study exploring how logic models can be used to develop a methodological framework for the high-quality assessment of IST-RTD effects at the Strategic Objective level, Commission Contract No 29000,2006. 19 W. W. Powell, in:
Methods and Applications, Cambridge university Press, United kingdom, 1994.23 O. E. Williamson, The economics of organisation: the transaction cost approach, American Journal of Sociology 87 (3)( 1981) 548 575.556 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008
A methodological experiment Attila Havas Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Budaörsi út 45.
and finally the new methods, approaches and norms to organise, manage, validate, legitimate and evaluate research activities.
as well as the other channels of the so-called open method of co-ordination. The Spring European council meetings, assessing the progress towards the Lisbon strategy,
The futures developed here are just to demonstrate how to use these proposed methods, and its potential benefits for various stakeholders.
In contrast, futures developed by individuals can only experiment with new methods, or spark dialogues, by offering food for thought, at best.
Finally, methodological and policy conclusions are drawn. A few remarks are in order to indicate the limitations of this paper.
No doubt, there are various efforts to rank universities in spite of these methodological difficulties, but none of these‘league tables'is accepted generally. 15 2. 2. Where research is located:
First, though, a sound methodology should be developed to establish appropriate metrics and evaluation criteria. A recent, major attempt to analyse the performance of EU universities is 32.16 The term itself higher education clearly reflects this feature.
New methods, approaches, and norms are likely to be applied when organising, managing, validating, legitimating, and evaluating research activities.
is also likely to have an impact on devising evaluation criteria and methods. See Section 4. 1 on different possible rationales for ERIA.
e g. by using backcasting methods. More precisely, a series of actions can be determined, which are likely to increase the probability of achieving the desired future.
reliable method to predict which of these visions is most likely to materialise. The actual relevance and use of them is to present stark choices in terms of strategies,
exchange of experience) to improve financial infrastructure across the EU No conscious EU efforts to improve financial infrastructure in the laggard regions Policy-preparation methods,
A relevant method to deal with diversity is to identify ideal types. To keep the discussion relatively simple and short,
this method can be understood as a sort of qualitative simulation. Thus, the method itself should not be judged by the choice of these simplified types of universities, taken as somewhat arbitrary‘inputs'for‘modelling'.
'As already mentioned, visions for universities are built on alternative futures for the EU and ERIA, that is, Double success and Successful multi-speed EU, respectively.
are considered in 21.575 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 The methods, approaches,
together with evaluation methods, understood as a useful tool, which would also enhance their visibility and social esteem. 34 5. Conclusions This article considered alternative futures for EU universities.
The benefits of this proposed method are discussed by using the example of the EU, ERIA and EU universities.
The national 579 A. Havas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 558 582 governments, international organisations and associations of universities can provide methodological and financial support for these initiatives.
The Conference program covered both FTA methodological aspects and application of fta to policy fields such as, research and innovation, security and sustainability.
of which this special issue for Technological forecasting and Social Change consists of the selected papers with particular emphasis on methodological aspects of FTA,
Integrating Future-oriented technology analysis and Risk assessment (RA) Methodologies provides a clear example of where an older discipline meets a new one
An analytical method involving mining weighted graphs from technology archives is presented. The role of this new method in a context of distributed decision-making and design is presented. 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Hierarchical random graphs Architectural innovation Technology forecasting Design 1. Introduction This paper examines a technique suitable for monitoring
An analytical method involving mining weighted graphs from technology archives is presented. The role of this new method in a context of distributed decision-making and design is presented.
A prospective analysis of new technology fundamentally hinges on the concept of novelty. It is the newest and most novel of technologies which presents the greatest challenges for technological forecasting.
Relevant research has approached the problem of forecasting radical technological change with methods for supporting analysis for both decomposition and integration of new technologies.
9. Integrative methods also allow for the anticipation of converging technology. Swanson explored knowledge discovery by exploring database links 10.
analysts should avail themselves of a wide variety of techniques appropriate for the task at hand. 3. Methodology In the following section we develop an analytical method for the representation of emerging technologies in the form of a hierarchical graph.
The analytical methods for this approach have emerged from scientometrics, machine learning, graph theory and complexity studies. Systems ecology for instance provides a formal theory of morphological change 20.
We see to complement the technical literature with the following interpretive and example-oriented discussion of the methodology.
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 4. Results In this results section we apply the methodology described in the previous section to a specific system of new technologies.
Actor network theory is a material, semiotic method, expressly interested in both concepts as well as objects. Knowledge about science and technology may come in two forms.
& Social Change 76 (2009) 1138 1149 If tacit knowledge has based a character upon the configuration of knowledge claims, then methods (such as the hierarchical graph)
and relatedness of specific knowledge claims. 7. Conclusions The paper concludes that the proposed method, a hierarchical random graph, is a useful way for structuring diffuse knowledge bases of science and technology.
The success of the method is itself dependent upon the collected, distributed activities of innovators, the activities
Despite the apparent promise of this approach, the method has only been tried on a single case with limited validation.
and possible future research which might be performed to strengthen the method for technology analysis. The hierarchical random graph approach structured evidence of an existing technological network
The procedure proposed in this paper provides an objective method of predicting new technological linkages. It remains subjective in two regards:
would be an interesting item for extending the method. Acknowledgements The author gratefully acknowledges the use of C++ code
new methods for quantitative long-term policy analysis, Santa monica: The RAND Pardee Center, 2003.6 L. Fleming, Recombinant uncertainty in technological search, Manage.
of Japan) and trial approaches for technology convergence with the methodology of technology roadmapping, PICMET 2007 Proceedings, Portland, Oregon:
E 65 (6)( 2002) Article Number 066130.25 J. Gill, Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach, Chapman & Hall, 2002.26 J. J. Garrett, AJAX:
Inf. 22 (2)( 1983) 191 235.34 Lakatos, The Methodology of Scientific research Programmes: Philosophical Papers, Two Volumes, Cambridge university Press, Cambridge, 1978.35 M. Polanyi, Personal Knowledge:
the Regional infrastructure foresight method (RIF) and illustrates its potential virtues through an application to urban water management planning in a Swiss region (Kiesental.
we want to build on foresight methods for improving strategic decision making in infrastructures through the method of Regional infrastructure foresight RIF.
We will present empirical evidence to support our claims from the experiences of implementing the RIF method in The swiss sanitation sector.
We therefore consider strategic planning in sanitation as an appropriate test domain for the methodology. A similar approach has been presented by Dominguez et al. 2. They utilize infrastructure foresight to identify technological and organizational capability deficits.
Section 3 presents the procedural outlay of the Regional Infrastructure method and introduces concepts for addressing the trade-offs relative to context uncertainties, conflicts and sustainability deficits.
and strategic planning in infrastructure sectors. 2. Breaking up path dependencies in strategic infrastructure planning 2. 1. Characteristics of infrastructure sectors Infrastructures represent a specific challenge to strategic planning methods.
used inadequate assessment methods and failed to conclude the process by actually informing strategic action 37.2.3.
In terms of methodology, the value driven assessment follows the multi-criteria analysis approach (e g. 52) which is expanded to include uncertainties of context conditions (see e g. 53.
and the utilization of selected assessments'results. 3. The Regional infrastructure foresight method In view of this specific problem constellation and based on the theoretical arguments introduced above,
and tested a specific method for strategic infrastructure planning, the Regional infrastructure foresight method (RIF. RIF aims at providing an explorative perspective on strategic decision making
and adopts an explicit participative stance. This approach is conceived to provide orientation, target, and action knowledge 55 to the decision makers
The method was developed and tested in a transdisciplinary research project that empirically focused on The swiss urban water management sector.
and specifying the method but also acted as process facilitators and moderators of the workshops and sessions in the empirical application cases.
we will introduce the procedural structure of the method: deriving trade-off mappings related to context uncertainty,
procedure and methods The steps of the RIF procedure are sketched in this section according to the phase model from Miles
The relevant groups are identified in the situation analysis (e g. by using system constellation methods 60 to identify the roles, intentions, power and interactions among the most influential and affected 1153 E. Störmer et al./
Fourthly, the assessment of the options follows the well established method of sustainability value tree analysis 66,67.
three more or less representative cases for small to medium-sized sanitation systems were selected as pilot cases of the RIF method.
and results of the Kiesental case that allows illustrating the different elements of the method
We developed a specific methodological layout of a strategic planning process the Regional infrastructure foresight method that builds on a combination of foresight approaches that focus on exploratory context scenarios, option assessment and multiple perspectives.
Our methodological setup is likely to be applicable in planning processes related to energy supply schools, social services, hospitals etc.
methodological foundations and operational consequences, Eur. J. Oper. Res. 158 (3)( 2004) 662 677.53 J. J. Winebrake, B. P. Creswick, The future of hydrogen fueling systems for transportation:
Overview and Interpretative Framework, European Science and Technology observatory (ESTO), Paris, 2001.57 I. Miles, Appraisal of Alternative methods and Procedures for Producing Regional foresight, EU Kommission, Brüssel, 2002.58 R. Popper,
and TA exercises by linking the methodological tools in a reasonable way. The motivation of writing this paper is twofold:
On the other hand, the development of foresight and technology assessment methodologies is expected to benefit from the experiences of the industrial risk assessment tradition:
new businesses, climate adaptation) and some recent methodological considerations of the VTT foresight team (especially modular foresight/risk assessment process design that allows flexible tailoring of the process for varying needs and objectives.
and FTA PROCESSES. o Section 5 points out preliminary conclusions and directions for further research. 2. Methods of FTA and risk assessment 2. 1. The methods of future-oriented technology analysis Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) can be seen as a common
project team and methodology design are defined. The recruitment phase builds the network of experts, stakeholders and others meaningful to the process.
Methods like Delphi, SWOT analysis, benchmarking and expert panels are used widely in the generation phase to generate new knowledge.
In the action phase, technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios and others are useful methods to disseminate the visions of the future.
The nature of foresight methodologies varies from creative to the evidence based and from expertise to interaction based working methods.
Popper 9 lists and describes 33 different foresight and assessment methods altogether. A tentative systemic framework of the potential FTA METHODS by Saritas 10 is shown in Fig. 2;‘
Deciding what should be done Specific methods to fulfill specific functions are illustrated also in the guide,
and the prescription phase utilizes the roadmapping, backasting, modelling or simulation methods 42. Altogether, a substantial shift away from the fixed modelling and management towards more contingent and participatory approaches has taken place in all FTA areas.
Possible and potential futures are examined by applying, for instance, scenario, backcasting or roadmapping methods. Among other methods and practices in the field are constructive technology assessment
discursive technology assessment, consensus conferences, brainstorming, expert workshops, Delphi questionnaires and expert Fig. 1. Popper's diamond 9. 1165 R. Koivisto et al./
whether the assessed technology does the job better than the previous methods, whether it fits into the company and/or the society,
risk analysis is seen as one of the methods contributing to the FTA EXERCISES. Weak signal and Wild Card analyses for instance are used tools in risk analyses concerning the strategic design of societies or companies, e g. 43 45.
A systematic and Fig. 2. A systemic framework for methods 10.1 For instance, the TA studies carried out by the US Office of Technology (OTA) in 1974 1995 primarily served to inform Congress
Tixier et al. 23, for instance, reported about 62 risk analysis methodologies. There are methods for mapping the hazards generally
and also methods for a very detailed analysis, such as index methods and strict quantitative modelling.
Some methods are tailored to special risks, e g. environmental risks 24. Possibly the most frequently used risk analysis method in the world is Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) study
which has also been standardised 25. Potential problem analysis is used also widely. All the methods follow the general structure
and demands of the technical risk analysis as defined in the standard IEC 60300-3-9 20 (see Fig. 3). The prerequisites for a successful risk assessment are:
o data on the system being analysed and on all the associated substances, o operational model of the system under analysis, o systematic hazard identification procedure and risk estimation techniques,
A systematic risk analysis typically starts, after the data gathering, with the identification of hazards and the associated hazardous scenarios according to a specific procedure defined by the selected risk analysis method.
In traditional methods, risks are identified component by component. In recent years the approach towards more comprehensive and holistic risk management has strengthened.
risk analysis methodologies still structure the risk assessment processmechanically. This systematic mechanisticway surely has benefits, which could also be applied in amore holistic approach.
In this methodology, the concept of risk iswidened to consider the risks in the innovation processesmay these be either intra-corporate R&dor highly distributed
namely by creating systematic working methods into the safety information gathering, analysing and understanding, as well as finding ways to mitigate risks
The aim was to study the possibilities of proactive risk assessment and management of critical infrastructures based on the integration of risk assessment and scenario development methods.
The results of the process showed that the created scenarios were too generic to apply the traditional (process safety) risk assessment methods
This kind of scenarios cannot sufficiently be analysed by the currently available risk assessment methods, because these methods require more detailed knowledge of the target to be analysed:
the process, the technology, people, the environment and so on should be known as fully as possible. The project states that a good modelling tool would help to model the future interdependencies supported by an integration of the scenario work and the systematic risk assessment. 3. 2. Managing opportunities,
and show the fruitful link between the foresight and risk assessment methods. 1168 R. Koivisto et al./
and methods for companies in order to support the decision making related to introducing existing technologies into new markets, development of new technologies for existing markets,
INNORISK project aims at applying Back-pocket roadmap 30 (also called Agile Roadmap), SWOT analysis 31,32 and IBM's Signpost methodology tools together with Potential Problem/Opportunity (Risk analysis
33) and Risk Map methodology 34. All these methods are applied in an innovation process of a new product development.
INNORISK project defines the innovation process to include three stages: opportunity recognition (the fuzzy front end), conceptualisation and commercialisatiion Foresight and risk assessment are essential parts of each stage.
Methods are developed together with the companies in three different case studies: a medium-size company offering control systems for high-tech companies, a medium-size technology company and a large-size technology company. 2 The back-pocket roadmap starts
In INNORISK project PPA (Potential Problem analysis) is seen as an example of a brainstorming method that can be used to explode the prevailing mind-set in the opportunity recognition and analysis 29.
and OBM are not alternative methods, but could be used as complementary methods. The link between the opportunity analysis and strategy works of a company becomes evident in the roadmapping process 29.
Risk map/risk taxonomy is used in the INNORISK approach as a link between the fuzzy front end
The experiences of the method development in the INNORISK case companies have been positive. Dominating feature in all cases has been that the top management of the companies has been involved actively in the development processes.
as a result of the method development. 3 3. 3. Climate change adaptation and risk assessment (CES) A joint project concerning the climate change adaptation in Finland
Risk assessment methods to evaluate the uncertainties and consequences of the climate change affecting the Nordic energy production system are developed in the project.
and a method for risk estimation and evaluation. The seasonal plan, for instance, aims at stimulating the risk identification process by listing the normal seasonal routines of the hydropower plant,
When examined from the methodological and participatory point of view, we can see that the IRRIIS and CES exercises were fixed relatively and exclusive expert processes,
whereas more autonomous method management and broader participation were used in the INNORISK context. Fig. 4. Case projects positioned in view of the dimensions of outcomes (informative vs. instrumental), future perspectives (consensual vs. diverse) and in the coordinate system of stakeholder engagement (extensive vs. exclusive) and management
while on the strategic decision making level the autonomous methods are convenient. The analysis of this small amount of project material indicates that systematic risk assessment methods tend to direct the analysis towards instrumental, consensual and exclusive analysis of the future.
As resulted in the IRRIIS project, it is also challenging, and therefore not always productive, to apply systematic risk assessment methods together with more loosely formulated foresight approaches
in order to illustrate the potentiality of the future and possible future risks. The challenge of making a bridge between foresight
and technical risk analysis methods lies perhaps mostly on people's experience of using different methods in these two parallel traditions.
Experts of their fields may not know deep enough the usage of the methods. For instance the multitude of the methods in both traditions may be difficult to see:
risk analysis expert may know e g. roadmapping method, but does not understand that it is the most usable only in the prescription phase of the foresight process.
The same goes to the risk analysis methods: some methods are better in scanning the situation in the early stage of the risk assessment process
and some other methods are better in analysing the case more detailed. Cases are also in different scales,
which tend to shift the method use into certain direction: abstract level strategic design goes towards foresight methods
and concrete level case studies follow the technical risk assessment tradition. 4. Towards an integrated approach 4. 1. Risk assessment
especially in terms of methodological variety which is large in both approaches. Hazard/risk estimation and evaluation phases,
Fixed vs. autonomous management o Fixed management can be characterised as centralised approach in which co-ordinators fix the scope and methods of the exercise at the outset and control the process,
In the method scale the common ground is seen in the multitude of the methods and in the hierarchy of methods:
scanning or mapping like methods are used in the early phases of the foresight or risk analysis processes
and holistic processes Foresight activities and methodologies may have benefits that will support the risk analysis methods and activities in the development towards a more holistic approach.
The core benefit of risk assessment methods is absolutely the strict systemic character of the risk analysis techniques.
Risk assessment methods are fixed traditionally approaches, e g. focused on a certain industrial plant or specific chemical or event (Fig. 5). They typically are short-term studies,
In IRRIIS project the results show that risk assessment methods are too detailed for analysing loosely constructed scenarios.
Risk assessment methods require detailed description of the analysis target, at least a plan. The future target, e g. a scenario, may not have a sufficient level of detail.
In some way the technology assessment is close to risk assessment methods, but the scope might still be vaguer than in risk assessment processes in industrial applications.
because the risk assessment methods applied have been in a more general and not so detailed level.
For example, risk map methodology is more general than for instance the HAZOP method. However the case projects show that there is potential in integrating the risk assessment and the FTA METHODOLOGIES.
That is why network building is the crucial part of assessment processes and methodologies. We can cope with the uncertainty by collecting
literature reviews and other such methods are used in both approaches. However, risk assessments utilize more systematic and standardised methods, especiaall in risk identification phase.
Risk assessment process requires also a more detailed description of the target of the analysis Table 1 The lessons learned from the case projects.
Project/questions IRRIIS INNORISK CES How case studies contributed to risk analysis methodology? Scenarios should be as accurate as possible
PPA/POA and risk map methods were applied in a foresight process. A new risk analysis framework was created.
How case studies contributed to risk management methodology? The results show that the integration of proactive risk assessment
Hence, fixed component by component way of doing the analysis may give place to other kinds of methods,
Either way, both approaches may benefit methodologically from each other in developing better methods for assessing the futures.
For example, in case of emerging risks new methods applying the sufficient features of as well risk assessment as FTA APPROACHES are welcome.
In Table 2 the characteristics and typical processes and methods of risk assessment and future-oriented technology analyses, as well as future expectations concerning their development,
the future risk assessment shows up as a methodology that should increasingly adapt supplementary elements from many different approaches such as FTA.
but also when forming the methodology and tools for the use of these teams. These notions open many challenges where further studies may be beneficial.
, the recruitment phase, the generation phase Standards BS 8800, OHSAS 18001, ISO guides, IEC standards None existing, creative openness Methods Hazop Potential problem analysis
Index methods Environmental risk analysis Totally over 60 reported risk analysis methods Delphi, SWOT analysis, benchmarking, expert panels (new knowledge creation) Technology roadmaps, backcasting, narrative scenarios (visions of the future) Constructive technology assessment,
D. Gaston, Review of 62 risk analysis methodologies of industrial plants, Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, vol. 15, Elsevier Science Ltd.
Theory, Methods and Applications, Taylor & francis Group, London, 2009, ISBN 978-0-415-48513-5. 29 J. Paasi, P. Valkokari, P. Maijala
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