Futures methodology issues 1. Introduction There are many methods and approaches to the study of the future.
there is no assurance that the evolution of such methods 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2005 American Council for the United nations University.
Yet there are some methodological frontiers which if addressed, may improve the quality of the enterprise 1. 2. Integrating new technology with futures research methods New technologies carry great potential for improving
forty years from now nearly all futures methods will be conducted in software, through networks, with diverse and changing sets of people, continually cross-referencing data,
Hence, the image of a few bright people, using a few interesting methods to forecast the future,
may be replaced by the image of many people interacting with many combinations of methods to shape the future by blurring the distinctions between research and decision making.
Although some of the methods such as decision analysis, scenarios portfolio theory, or decision trees have proven somewhat helpful in decision making in uncertainty,
This assumption moves us into the realm of psychology. 7. The assumption of reductionism There is an implicit assumption in some methods of futures research that reducing a problem to its elements improves the forecasts produced by the method.
New methods for Quantitative, Long-term Policy analysis, RAND Corporation, 2003.3 Thomas Kuhn, The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, University of Chicago Press, 1970.4 Theodore J. Gordon, Chaos
He is the innovator of several methods of futures research and author of several books and hundreds of articles dealing with the future research methodology, space, and innovation.
This attainment raised national interest and critical debate of the reliability of the data basis and methodologies used in comparisons.
The article presents the background, methodology and results of technology barometer, discusses its impacts on national discussion,
and methodologies are used in comparisons. For example, one problem of comparisons based on composite indicators is that they give a backward looking mirror perspective,
and methodology Technology barometer is a societal indicator instrument with a strong emphasis on the innovation environment.
or any indicator system in that case, to have a sound theoretical and methodological basis 1,
the fully transparent method does not prevent this in any way. In the first three implementation rounds of technology barometer all reference group countries appear to have specific profiles of their own with strong characteristic features.
calls for a high transparency of the methods used as well as transparency of all the utilized data. Transparency is of paramount importance for retaining the attention of the target groups
risk analysis, and foresight approach into one anticipatory methodological concept of strategic policy intelligence. In principle, this concept could be applied in the study of different kinds of societal objects and objectives, related to national innovation system, regions, research programmes or societal actors, engaging private enterprises and public organizations.
Methodology and user guide. OECD Statistics Working papers 2005/3, OECD, Paris, 2005.2 M. Freudenberg, Composite indicators of country performance:
The methodology combination of a national foresight process in Germany Kerstin Cuhls a,, Amina Beyer-Kutzner b, Walter Ganz c, Philine Warnke d a Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research (ISI), Breslauer Str. 48,76139 Karlsruhe, Germany
a tailor-made combination of methods was applied. This paper focuses on the concept design of the process
and explains one of the methods the future online survey in more detail. The German Foresight process of the BMBF delivers results on different levels:
albeit with different emphases and in different stages with a new combination of methods. The process was considered to be the major approach of a German ministry in science and technology foresight.
for R&d policy 3. Combination of methods and topic fields In order to achieve these targets, a tailor-made combination of methods was applied.
The process started by monitoring present-day science and technology and was broadened to look into the future of the next 10 to 15 years and even further.
As there is not one single methodology that can be used as in an input output model
like in most foresight processes worldwide see 3 6 a combination of methods had to be used to meet all the requirements of the objectives (see Fig. 1)
. In order to address objectives 1 and 2, in the foresight approach, well-known search strategies as well as other methods from innovation research,
as well as new, creative methods. The themes to be investigated, both national and international, were developed further by experts taking into account existing forward-looking roadmapping and strategy processes from the public and private sector.
As there is not a single methodology for searching procedures, the methods contained quantitative methods like bibliometrics as well as qualitative approaches like workshops, expert interviews, internet and qualitative literature searches.
A new approach of inventor scouting (identifying young inventors and interviewing them) added to the methodology.
Fig. 1. Combination of different methods. 1188 K. Cuhls et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 The topics were handled,
The following sections describe which methodologies were applied in which phase of the process. Especially the online survey which had the function of focussing the topics as well as an assessment function is described in more detail (Fig. 3). 3. 1. Starting phase of the process The process started with 14 broader topic fields that were derived from the German High-tech Strategy 2,
Fig. 3. Timeline of the methodology and different outputs at the end. 1190 K. Cuhls et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 3. 2. Search phase of the process The second phase of the foresight process encompassed a further national and international search, interviews with Monitoring Panel participants,
At least the methods are designed in such a way that there may be fruitful interplay. Adaptive foresight is designed to help decision-makers develop strategies.
two institutions are performing the methodological part of the process that are regarded as neutral in having no direct thematic stakes in the process (although indirectly,
but includes information and knowledge from different sources and by different means and methods. The information and topics gained in these processes may also be interesting for other actors in the innovation system.
Scenario planning has been developed as a method to represent and deal with such deep uncertainties. Over the recent decades, it has formed a growing area of interest on the interface of academia and public and private sector policy-making.
BLOSSOM is an acronym for Bridging LONG-TERM Scenario and Strategy analysis Organisation and Methods, where organisation refers to the relevance of the organisational
and institutional context and methods refer to the need of developing methods to better align long-term scenario
. While numerous alternative methodologies exist for future strategic planning, we limited ourselves mainly to literature on scenario planning,
when using scenario planning. 3. Synthesizing the available evaluative scenario literature 3. 1. Types of evaluative scenario studies The literature attempting to assess the impacts of scenarios employs different types of evaluative methods.
Partly this can be explained with related methodological difficulties since impacts might take a long time to become evident
trust is gained from methodological credibility, i e. confidence in the method used to generate the scenarios,
or trust in narrative, i e. the extent to which the scenarios build on existing metaphors and beliefs.
Methods that work well in developing scenarios for small groups, well known to the scenario developers, may not work well in developing scenarios that can be used by large organisations or in broad political debates 37.
Difficulties in applying traditional scenario methods among the heterogeneous stakeholders public sector scenario exercises must engage are reported also elsewhere in the literature 17.
and experiences of those carrying out the scenario exercise is the selection or negotiation of the scenario methodology.
It is therefore interesting that the cluster of categories concerning methodologies were rated as lower in importance
This perhaps reflects the view expressed in the workshop that a simple tool discussion is not possible as the very notion of an appropriate methodology is contested complex
as in the case of global environmental assessments such as the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment or the IPCC, work on the systematization of methods
highlighting the need for further methodological improvements. While the ability of a scenario planning exercise to deal with discontinuities and surprise factors is influenced by methodological design aspects,
it may be more dependent on the skills and abilities of those carrying in out and the degree to
relevance and legitimacy of the approach will require more than methodological refinements. More stable institutional settings are needed to experiment with flexible process formats that can adapt analytical efforts to specific information needs and conflict constellations.
New methods for Quantitative, Longer-Term Policy analysis, 2003, RAND MR-1626-RPC. 11 C. Selin, Trust and illusive force of scenarios, Futures 38 (1
Problem Structuring Methods for Complexity, Uncertainty, and Conflict, Wiley, Chichester, UK, 1989.19 P. J. H. Schoemaker, Multiple scenario development:
G. Ringland (Ed.),Scenarios In public Policy, John Wiley, Chichester, 2002.39 D. G. Groves, R. J. Lempert, A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant
and methods used in technology forecasting, indeed initially the Japanese studies were called‘technology forecasts 'and were based on US experience of the Delphi method.
and allowing participation in formulation ofline their content'°Choosing the methods to be used to enable the expression of public opinion with all its vagaries of expression concerning
its scope and its methods, including the‘selection'of the stakeholders to represent participants from:
Behavioural aspects of the wider range of participants Methods and tools for promoting inclusivity Organizational
outcome and the methods used in its conduct. These behavioural influences are discussed rarely in Foresight studies
Methodological issues The behavioural aspects of inclusivity also have implications for the methods used in Foresight:
participation will need to be enabled by direct and user friendly methods. Possible methods include taking part in:
Public opinion surveys based on: Telephone surveys The Internet Postal surveys Public meetings Public enquiries Invited workshops Interactive television Videoconferencing Electronic meetings or surveys based on:
which of these methods is the most effective in enabling inclusivity. The contrast between the extremes of narrow expert and widespread consultation illustrates the simplicity of the first by comparison with the second and how this stems from its exclusivity in clear distinction to the inclusive nature of widespread consultation.
a critical methodology for identifying and debating boundary judgements. However, debating boundary judgements is one thing:
+a mosaic of arenas for innovation and selection At the time of the Constructive TA project, a method of combining ideas of innovation journeys amidst evolving landscapes (coevollutio of innovation/selection processes
or could be orchestrated the method put forward in the Constructive TA within Frontiers. In this way, Constructive TA is an instance of the general shift in management (and tailored foresight) away from prediction towards reflexive anticipation and strategy making.
Rapid developments in nano means the consequent burgeoning number of delivery methods leads to increasingly bewildering regulatory protocols.
Comparative and systematic methods do not exist. There is a lack of watchdogs; self regulation and voluntary reporting go unchecked.
Comparative and systematic methods do not exist. There is a lack of watchdogs; self regulation and voluntary reporting go unchecked.
which led to an enquiry on methods of sterilisation and exploration of bio-fouling. Technical complexity becomes an issue.
through methodology and application development and is about to be submitted at the time of publication of this article.
They address a wide variety of issues in FTA including methods and policy and governance impacts with discussions and demonstrations at the regional and corporate levels.
1) Methods and tools contributing to FTA;(2) The use and impact of fta for policy and decision making;(
and of the range of methods and systematic approaches existing in the strategy field. With its long-term perspective and its emphasis on connecting perspectives of different knowledge areas and different actors and stakeholders, foresight differs from corporate strategic planning,
and M. Borup 2. 2. Foresight approaches and methods Whereas the rationale for foresight gets its legitimacy from the tradition of evolutionary econoomi foresight,
the methods and approaches used in foresight activities have their basis in the academic discipline of strategy.
Many of these methods were developed between the 1940s and 1970s, often in the USA and often in affiliation with defence-related analyses or strategic intelligence in large firms.
Furtherrmore several methods assume the relationship between research and innovation to be linear, whereby innovation is thought to be initiated in pure science
and thinking on methods and approaches. The COST A22 Action on Foresight methodologies and the appearance of several journals dedicated to this area are just a few indicators of this.
and lists of approaches and methood for foresight have been suggested by different authors in review articles on foresight and future-oriented technology assessment methods (Technology Futures analysis Methodsworking Group 2004).
Concepts such as strategy methods priority-setting and foresight are not always familiar to scientists. Large parts of the science community often associate such terms with administration, bureaucracy, political intervention in science and similar, negatively associated terms,
This includes methods such as technology watching, trend analyses and the use of learning curves. As already mentioned, the idea of the rational decision has been challenged for decades by decision theorists.
The methods used in this approach to strategy formulation are, among others, stakeholder analyses, networks, negotiations, political games, alliances and power bases in expertise (i e. academic reputation.
Delphi studies and other judgemental methods can be perceived as a systematic way of dealing with political interests,
and the methods for determining this come from the usual techniques for evaluating scientific merit:
interviewees were selected using a‘snowball'method starting with centrally placed council members and civil servants. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014 924 P. D. Andersen
-oriented Technology-oriented and methods Time horizon 10 20 years 2008 2012 and 2030 Method, systematics and tools Invited vision papers Council discussions Council members'own
One presenttatio was intended to initiate a discussion of how foresight methods could enrich strategy processes within the councils and programmes.
However, the audience was not at all ready to discuss methodological details. Instead the discussion focused on questions on the nature of strategy
New technology foresight, forecasting and assessment methods, 13 14 may, Seville, Spain. EU DG Research. 2005. Final Report.
A manager's guide to technology forecasting and strategy analysis methods. Columbus/Richland, OH: Batelle Press.
towards integration of the field and new methods. Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 3: 287 303.
Method: Input: Results: Phase1: Creating a Baseline Figure 2. Phases and steps of FNR Foresight.
to overcome suspicions of some of the methods common to foresight; to ensure sustained, consistent participation;
and their methodology had to be adapted to the degree of progress made up to that point. 8. Other elements included the review analysis by the OECD on Luxembourg's public research apparatus, the multiannnua development programmes of the public research centres and the University of Luxembourg,
New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, 13 14 may, Sevilla, Spain. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:09 03 december 2014
However, as the participatory process was not following a strictly speaking forward-looking methodology (e g. scenario development, road mapping, etc.
and issues only rather than aiming at solutions. 3. See the study on methods and dimensions of impact assessment by Rhomberg, Steindl,
stakeholder participation Introduction Foresight is among the most widespread and accepted forms of organised future-oriented activities today. 1 As a widely applied method for dialogical future thinking,
In the literature on municipal planning, visioning is regarded as a separate method, as a more direct process of establishing a desired vision of a communal future not necessarily based on different future scenarios. 5 This latter approach is politically crucial for public organisations trying to develop policy and long-term thinking.
After that, planners began to talk about‘community visioning'as a new method of‘soliciting stakeholder input for the creation of collective plans'.
'The rather scarce literature on municipal visioning has been criticised for its lack of a consistent theory or method.
a discussion that has been developed elsewhere. 8 Methodology The research on this particular visioning project in a Norwegian municipality is part of a Phd project studying different practises of foresight in the public sector. The researchwas conducted by applying‘multi-sited ethnography'(Marcus 1995,95 117).
method application and organising. Notes 1. Foresight is a highly diverse activity which makes it difficult to give a comprehensive overview of different organisatioons networks,
'Apart from that, many methods, also forecasting methods can be included. Foresight practitioner and theorist Ron Johnston (2008,18) asserts:‘
As with other future methods, the perspective on visioning is dependeen on the context in
To close, this bnewq method brings to bear available S&t information resources and analytical tools to generate FTA more quickly.
We also describe the policy context and methodological support of Finnsight: specifically, we report how challenges arising from the tight schedule were addressed through the process design and
and how strictly the participants must adhere to the use of proposed methodologies in their work.
Rask 2008) with the aim of aligning the methodological design of the exercise with the explicit and even implicit objectives that are placed on the exercise.
In our analysis, we discuss the policy context, management structure, methodological execution and key results of Finnsight.
and examine Finnsight in view of axes of balance that are arguably helpful in the planning of foresight exercises The methodological novelties of Finnsight are highlighted,
Section 3 describes the methodological design, execution and main results of Finnsight and reports subsequent policy developments in the R&i system.
with responsibility for the planning and methodological support of the exercise. It was assisted by the guidance that the Steering Group provided through its discussions
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:11 03 december 2014 992 A. Salo et al. panel meetings were organised only about seven weeks later than the initial meeting of the panel chairmen. 3. 3. Analytical concepts and methodological
natural resources Development of bioproduction Measurement methods and diagnostics Management and modelling of biological knowledge 7. Information and communications Sensor technology applications Data mining, analysis, management and retrieval Bio-information technology 8. Understanding and human interaction Multicultural
modes of stakeholder participation, perspectives on analytical methodologies and manageemen styles, among others (cf. Rask 2008.
Yet there were methodological steps that retained dissensual perspectives as well. For example, the compilation of documents from the internet-based questionnaires showed the full distributions of the panellists'assessment ratings
and the methods of the foresight exercise are defined during its earliest phases and then imposed consistently through reasonably tight controls.
while avoiding the risks of imposing too onerous a methodology that might be ineffective or even resented by the panels.
Some aspects of fixed management were adopted by agreeing on a systematic methodology that provided the same conceptual and sequential structure to the work of each panel.
and that they could also adapt the use of methodological tools that were offered to them in a responsive manner (Salo, Könnölä, and Hjelt 2004).
the central aim was to bring into a single frame a family of methods and approaches that had matured
which formed an authoritative source of methods to address 2. However, many of these methods have far wider application in futures work than in the domain of technology
and it is pertinent to ask why there should be a particular focus on technology. While this is a powerful undercurrent in the broader discourse of futures work it does not elsewhere form the central focus.
The focus at that time was improved research on methods, methodological choice and merging empirical/analytical methods with stakeholder engagement processes 5. The positioning was aimed at perceived overlapping fields of practice among technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, and assessment.
Two related issues emerged that were to prove persistent. The first has been a constant tension between, on one hand,
Two special editions of journals reflected the continuing methodological interest but crossed this with an interest in the evaluation of impacts and in the use of FTA in two domains, business and higher education 9, 10.
Addressing the theme of methods and tools Eerola and Miles come to the topic from the perspective of knowledge management
and qualitative methods applied as support to a well functioning knowledge triangle, and to the increasing role of modelling and simulation in developing a better understanding of complexity
Methods in turn need to manage the complex knowledge flows that are entailed. FTA is a work in progress
References 1 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303, in press. 2 T. J. Gordon, J. C. Glenn (Eds.
Futuresresearchmethodology, Version 2. 0, Millenniumproject of theamerican Council for theunitednationsuniversity2003 (July. 3 R. A. Slaughter, Probing beneath the surface:
Hybrid methodologies such as various combinations of scenario building roadmapping, surveys and creative methods are used widely. Key Foresight concepts such as‘‘vision''that were used previously in a rather broad and all encompassing manner have been deconstructed
and are now being deployed in a more differentiated way 6, 7. At the same time the notion of Foresight as a governance tool and policy instrument has been refined.
and innovation policy from other policy areas such as social or employment policies where the Open Method of Coordination has been applied earlier on in Europe. 3. 1. Governance arenas in European research
we suggest our methodology is applicable indeed for designing such ERA Foresight activities and contribute to address the challenge we face regarding both the ERA and Foresight.
the Socioeconomic Dimension, Foresight Center of NISTEP, Tokyo, Japan, 2001.5 A. Havas, Terminology and Methodology for Benchmarking Foresight programmes, For Society Transnational Foresight ERA NET, 2006.6 N. Borup, N
the open method of co-ordination in innovation policy, Journal of European Public policy 11 (2)( 2004) 249 266.24 R. Barre',Essai d'interpre'tation de
an analytical framework and key issues for research, Energy Policy 28 (9)( 2000) 625 640.32 A. Salo, T. Gustafsson, R. Ramanathan, Multicriteria methods for Technology foresight, Journal
In the first method, a cluster of several abstracts characterizes a conceptual overlay that an organization can lift off the scanning data
The second method operates in a cross-category manner to help scanners and planners identify the defining forces that are operating in the business environment.
or the capacity to use those methodologies and this forms the next grouping. With a similar frequency there is a group of objectives
and demand Methodology and capacity building Priority setting for S&t Network building Supporting policy or strategy development Analysing the future potential of technologies Fig. 1. Analysis of objectives of 50 foresight exercises. 1 Thanks
A review of some of these methods concluded that most are used rarely in practical situations of R&d resource allocation 12.
An influential approach emerging from industrial ex ante project selection methods was developed by the Australian National Laboratory CSIRO based upon a matrix of attractiveness and feasibility.
A series of methodological options, including scientometric indicators, surveys and Delphi studies are reviewed in the light of experience.
An important finding in relation to the interest of this paper is that a simple transfer of the methodologies to identify emerging science
and developments are needed to the methodologies, both for the quality of results and to convince the regulatory bodies and other stakeholders of their utility.
References 1 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303.2 T. Kuwahara, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, Foresight in Japan, in:
L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper, M'Keenan, I. Miles, R. Popper (Eds.),The Handbook of Technology foresight:
a methodological experiment, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008) 558 582.26 K. Cuhls, R. Johnston, Corporate foresight, in:
methodologies and selected applications, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516.38 J. Edler, L. Georghiou, Public procurement and innovation resurrecting the demand side, Research policy
and dedicated methods to improve the awareness and understanding of present and future challenges of the innovation system and its parts.
and with what methods the project develops understanding of the future. Foresight activities often focus on the production of consensual future perspectives that refer to the creation of common understanding on priorities, relevant collaborative networks and future actions.
Fixed management can be characterised as centralised approach in which co-ordinators fix the scope and methods of the project at the outset and control the process,
sustainability and information society issues requires typically many types of participants as well as different kinds of methods to adapt to the interests
Autonomous Flexible use of methods in working groups. Exclusive VTT expert engagement in steering group and workshops to enable intensive communication.
and methods selected in the beginning of the project. Autonomous Autonomous scenario work among the stakeholders. The experience of stakeholders‘‘overwrote''the methodological rigidity in some points.
Exclusive The work was carried out among the project partners. Extensive The results were tested against available expertise outside the project consortium.
Fixed The methodology was fixed at the beginning of the project. It consisted of data gathering and combination of qualitative scenarios and quantitative modelling.
experts were consulted to validate the results and methodological aspects. Policy recommendations were validated thought interviews of about twenty experts in ICT or environmental policy The 8th Japanese technology foresight program Informative Understanding future S&t challenges.
Fixed The methodology for the 8th Japanese technology foresight program is fixed at the beginning of the project, including: Delphi, Scenario, bibliometrics,
''Fixed The methodology was fixed at the beginning. The Cabinet Office established the Innovation 25 Strategy Council and the Innovation 25 Special Mission,
Fixed The methodology was fixed at the beginning. Extensive There are broad engagement of diversified stakeholders from government, academia and industry.
Fixed The methodology was fixed at the beginning. Extensive Very diversified stakeholders from government academia and industry have participated in NTFC.
Fixed The methodology was fixed at the beginning. Extensive Diversified stakeholders from government, academia and industry are very active in the process of TF2020. a Commissioned by the Nordic council. b Commissioned and conducted by VTT Technical research Centre. c Commissioned
The positioning of individual projects in the framework clarifies the methodological decisions and the rationales of stakeholder engagement.
and the coordinate systems provide bases for further analysis of their characteristics and methodological choices. Subsequently, we discuss the impacts of the selected projects on policy in the four quadrants,
''The FISTERA methodology inspired several national foresight projects, notably in Austria and Hungary. A review of FISTERA by NISTEP underlined the relevance of FISTERA's approach to formulate national science and technology policies also in Japan 24.
Terminology and Methodology for Benchmarking Foresight programmes, For Society Transnational Foresight ERA NET, 2006. T. Ko nno la et al./
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