Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective A. Eerola A i. Miles b a VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Espoo, Finland b Manchester Institute of Innovation research, Manchester united Kingdom 1
how valid their methods are, and what degree of plausibility should be accorded the body of forecasts
Methods like Delphi are designed to elicit evidence about expert judgement concerning such prospects. Recourse to such expert judgement is often the logical step
when there is a real difficulty with applying formal modelling approaches to the topic in question. 2 Such methods allow us to explore the structure of opinion
concerning, for example, the methods of stakeholder mapping that are employed, the ways in which suggestions for participants and dissemination approaches are elicited. 3. Methods and tools So,
FTA has many faces and comes in many‘‘flavours'',drawing on many different research traditions and methods.
Practically any source of insight into the dynamics of science and technology (S&t) their production, communication, application can be utilised as knowledge inputs into FTA.
Porter et al. 3 (the report of the Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group) reviewed many of the tools used
AHP, ANP, MCA methods for priority-setting; 4 or to tools for mapping and displaying information, such as network analysis, dynamic graphs and charts,
selecting the best-fitting and most generally useful methods out of this pool of proliferation.
which they have been familiar for many years, with little acquisition of new approaches and little awareness of the costs, benefits and broader implications of alternative methods.
but it is extraordinarily difficult to build in sufficient opportunity to experiment with alternative methods, and assess the effects of different ways of implementing given methods.
Our evidence base as to good practice is based more often upon‘‘gut feelings''about what has and has worked not well over a series of FTA experiences,
Horton notes that various methods are brought to bear in the various subtasks listed above. For example, methods are indicated for each of the subtasks of collection, collation and summarisation of information.
Of particular interest is the discussion of the subtask of interpretation, subtask (v). She portrays this as the conversion of translated knowledge into understanding.
It uses of methods such as roadmapping and scenario development relevant to the particular organisation/stakeholder. An important point stressed in this context is the vital role that third parties can play in interpretation
and methods that are associated often with each stage: Understanding: creation of a shared understanding and mutual appreciation of the topics in question, the factors influencing them, the wider systems in
Typical methods employed here are literature reviews, interviews with experts, horizon scanning. Roughly Horton's subtasks (i),(ii) and (iii.
Methods such as MCA, SWOT analysis, cross impact and trend impact analysis apply here. Roughly more of Horton's subtask (iv.
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 268 Many of the individual methods may be associated with more than one of the five steps,
and indeed many specific methods involve cycles of data production and analysis, modelling, choice among alternatives,
Yet other methods are brought into play in the broader design, organisation and management of an FTA programme, including,
in addition to standard project management methods, approaches needed for the selection, recruitment and mobilisation of participants in the process.
Popper 10 relates methods to a yet wider account of the stages through which Foresight programmes typically pass.
The selection of methods is a task, which should be undertaken not by simply copying the methods used in previous studies,
but with clarity about the KM tasks involved, and what the objectives of these are
with his well-known‘‘diamond''of methods, differentiates between methods in terms of two dimensions that, in terms of knowledge and posits,
The first dimension reflects how far the method relies on eliciting, working with, and synthesising expert knowledge,
The second dimension reflects how far the method involves formal analytic techniques such as statistical trend
Some combination of methods that span these dimensions is recommended as helping maximise the scope for FTA to draw on expert knowledge,
Individual methods may be implemented so as to be located in somewhat different positions in the two dimensions, while a large-scale FTA ACTIVITY may well encompass a sequence of steps that move around in Popper's diamond.
Methods for identifying key sources of knowledge and eliciting information from them in a form that can be used readily,
Methods such asworking within panels, workshops (scenario workshops in particular), are critical here, and in designing the FTA PROCESS it may be effective to appoint very senior members of key organisations to steering or advisory committees,
and we turn briefly to these. 9 5. Methods and knowledge One of the most influential contributions to thinking about organisational learning and KM has been the model of the dynamics of shared knowledge creation developed by Nonaka and Takeuchi 19.
Knowledge acquisition learning how to use models, formulae, equipment, methods etc. Combination: systematising and/or translating formalised concepts into new frameworks, procedures, etc.
Specific methods Delphi surveys, brainstorming, scenario workshops, etc. may be used to elicit and share such information, although it may be less easy to capture in a structured way as would be the information from, for example, statistical data or trend extrapolations.
Some of these methods yield relatively unstructured information; some organise this information into lists or more structured frameworks even models;
though they may have received some training in facilitation processes and workshop methods (from T-groups through management workshops to academic seminars).
and as far as possible key end-users of the results. determine what background research might need to be conducted. define the workshop procedures (what scenario methodology is to be deployed;
Here we have related methods in FTA to knowledge and knowledge management issues. Even a cursory examination of the KM literature will confirm several things.
using a wide variety of different approaches and methodologies (agent-based approaches, neural network-type approaches, fuzzy approaches, etc.
and Delphi and other methods for eliciting expert opinion are frequently put online. Knowledge management can also draw on social networking
and most FTA EXERCISES use multiple methods: the way in which methods are combined and integrated is a topic richly deserving of further research.
The problems arise when participants in, and users of, FTA EXERCISES are confronted with the different methods
and sorts of knowledge and posits that result from them. Different stakeholders have not only different interests,
While the recent expansion in the FTA methodological literature is enabling us to say a good deal more about how methods can be used,
held oral evidence sessions and workshops (aiming to include key stakeholders) and elicited public views via survey research and qualitative workshop methodologies.
Existing methods will be rendered‘‘democratised more transparent and user-friendly while new tools that support collaborative working will be introduced.‘‘
Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field & new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303.4 R. Johnston, Historical review of the development of future-oriented technology analysis, in:
C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barre'(Eds. Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008.5 M. Rader, A. Porter, Fitting future-oriented analysis methods to study types, in:
a comparison of two methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 73 (6)( 2006) 679 704.34 H. Linstone, M. Turoff (Eds.
These methods have to be seen in the context systems thinking of which they are all sub-sets as are the methods that accompany any future oriented technology analysis.
It is as well to remember Wittgenstein's claim that‘methods pass the problem situation by.'
Yet, COM 10 claims that governance methods and systems have not been institutionalised on a broad and continuous basis in Europe and elsewhere.
Current FTA does not go beyond the application of certain methods which are rooted in technological forecasting
FTA in support of new forms of governance Governance methods and systems have not been institutionalised on a broad and continuous basis possibly
and methods make sure that the visions of different stakeholders can be represented harmonised and in the final outcomes and products?
and methods can help corporate leadership in creating balanced value across and beyond a firm's value chain building upon strategic CSR.
and methods may help companies to evaluate CSR and, most importantly, the social impacts of all firm unit's activities in each location where it operates.
presents its methodology and discusses the results of the survey in a greater extent. 2010 Elsevier Ltd.
The BPS methodology was straightforward: an open-ended survey with compilation, grouping responses, and a general analysis of the five areas.
Then, in the third section, the survey methodology and method of analysis are described. The fourth section presents the respondents'profile summary with a set of descriptive statistics including (i) the country of residence (
FTA) 2008 Conference, previous FTA meetings tended to focus on methodology, policy linkages and success factors for Foresight design & delivery.
virtual science discredited for unreliable biased data Biochips for human implants Nanotechnology radically changes production methods
of research into renewable and alternative energy sources New cost-effective sources of renewable energy identified Breakthrough in hydrogen production methods require infrastructure requirements Massive failure of airlines
The current paper aims to establish a methodological base. The authors acknowledge that it could benefit from additional content assessment.
a methodological proposal, Foresight 11 (2009) 6, 21 41. O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 312
A paper by Calof and Smith at the 2008 International Seville FTA Conference 3 concludes‘‘methodology,
The focus of the Conference was on foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment methods and tools.
This signals a need for the major focus of FTA to be moved from the twin goals of methodology refinement
New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, 2004, European communities Technical Report EUR 21473 EN. 5 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis:
Design/methodology/approach This introductory paper provides an overview of selected FTA 2011 Conference contributions for this Special issue.
Thereby, they provide important insights to an epistemological debate that is based on the premise that qualitative and quantitative methods are hardly reconcilable.
and methods can be used for assessing the impact of transport policy decision-making. They highlight the importance of assessing the potential effects of policy interventions to anticipate unintended effects
Reflecting a broader discussion on the benefit and limits of combining different methods, it has to be noted that using numerical values to support decision-making may be preferred a procedure
Thus, participatory methods where views of various different experts are considered were recommended highly. Taking the participatory aspect further and also incorporating citizens in the process could increase the scope of different views
they suggest ways to reinforce the scenario design method with more in depth analysis, without losing its qualitative nature and its strengths for communication and stakeholder engagement.
methods and approaches that enables them to acknowledge and anticipate the various possible futures that will guide PAGE 280 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 society.
Delphi survey, SWOT analysis and scenario development methods in various contexts over the last ten years. He is a Board member of The swiss Academic Association for Environmental Research and Ecology (SAGUF
A variety of tools and methods of rather different character are applied, none of these methods are able to systematically reproduce a complete system;
they all have their specific limits. It is not always clear, however, which method could be used for which purpose.
In this paper, a transparent and problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS is suggested. It aims at supporting an appropriate usage of FTA METHODS in planning processes.
Design/methodology/approach A literature review carried out in context of the EU funded transport project OPTIC (see www. optic. toi. no) reveals that differentiating between different types of uncertainty is possible.
Key criteria for the categorisation of methods are their abilities in dealing with different types of missing knowledge.
which are called‘‘structurally open methods''and‘‘structurally closed methods''.''It is shown that the openness-closedness dichotomy is highly important for the type of unintended effects that can be detected with a method.
Originality/value The paper has a novel approach for structuring FTA techniques that goes beyond the traditional quantitative/qualitative approach.
It juxtaposes a problem typology and a typology of methods Keywords FTA METHODS, Transport planning, Risks, Uncertainties, Unintended effects, Uncertainty management,
and methods that can be allocated to the field of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA, see Scapolo and Porter (2008) for an overview).
and methods for the anticipation of unintended effects of transport policies are applied to give guidance and orientation for planning processes.
In the meantime, it can be observed that more qualitative and discursive methods are stipulated by actors in the process or proposed by the project leaders.
it seems that is not always understood in which way discursive methods can contribute to the improvement of planning processes.
The huge variety in tools and methods, however, makes it difficult to understand where exactly their potentials
and easily communicable categorisation of methods is able to support both a more appropriate usage of methods in planning and decision-making processes,
and methods are able to address these types of knowledge. In the following chapter a categorisation is introduced that helps to better understand the limits and potentials of tools and methods for addressing knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.
It is labelled problem-oriented since it aims at tackling the problem of unintended effects of policy interventions,
which is rooted often in the knowledge-base of decision making 1. 3. The methods:‘‘‘‘structurally open''versus‘‘structurally closed''The transport system is embedded in the broader social, economic and environmental systems.
and methods will never be able to systematically reproduce the full web, neither in scope nor in depth.
does the structure of the method allow for a high degree in openness concerning the inclusion of parameters and linkages between parameters,
or is the method rather characterised by a predefined set of nodes and linkages between these nodes?
Accordingly, we introduce one category that is called‘‘structurally open methods ''and one category called‘‘structurally closed methods''.
''In reality'',there is rather a continuum than a clear borderline between these two categories. Notwithstanding these reservations, Table II illustrates that it is possible to define clear characteristics for both of them (see DLR and KIT, 2010;
and methods is whether they use and/or produce qualitative or quantitative data. We prefer to use‘‘structurally closed''and‘‘structurally open''as main categories,
is highly important for the type of unintended effects that can be anticipated. 3. 1 Structurally open methods This category comprises tools
and methods that are providing a rather open structure. In general, these are dominated by qualitative information. Quantitative data might well play a role
These methods in general have a structure, but are quite flexible in integrating new arguments and views.
Extremely open methods are open space activities or a brainstorming. Typically, they are used to screen the possible options and/or effects in a broader context.
The openness or closeness is determined by the degree of pre-structure in the design of such methods.
the more open is the method and the less effects are excluded from the beginning. A wide range of unintended effects might come to the fore.
But these methods aim at improving the epistemic basis of decision making by focussing mainly on the categories of known unknown
and unknown unknowns (see Figure 1). 3. 2 Structurally closed methods Structurally closed methods are characterised by highly formalised and pre-structured approaches.
Another example for structurally closed methods are cost benefit analyses (CBA), which is used a widely and, in many transport projects,
All gains and losses thought to be relevant are measured in the same units to enable Table II Categorisation of FTA METHODS Structurally open methods Structurally closed methods No fixed setting Predefined setting Mainly explorative More or less clear understanding of relevant
Brainstorming Quantitative models Open space Cost-benefit analysis Expert workshops Multi-criteria analysis Focus groups pta methods Explorative (qualitative) scenarios VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage
There is a need to understand relevant causal relations to apply the method properly. So, in general, the method helps to specify
or quantify knowns. A third example for this field is multi-criteria analysis (MCA), also termed multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) or multi-objective decision-making.
However, these are rather side effects that do not emanate from the main purpose of the methodology.
Therefore MCDA or MCA can be assigned to the category of structurally closed methods. 3. 3 Combinations of methods It was highlighted above that there is no sharp borderline between the structurally open and structurally closed categories per se.
But it seems to be possible to allocate tools and methods to either of the two categories.
Quite often several methods are packed together under the umbrella of more integrative approaches. These tools are used to integrate data of different character and sources.
which is illustrated briefly here with the help of two methodological examples: scenario building and strategic environmental assessment.
However, the ability to detect specific unintended effects depends on the scenario methodology applied and thus, has to be discussed in relation to the different variations of the methodology.
For example, explorative scenarios are designed usually in a rather open way and should be able to explore unknowns.
In particular for SEA, participatory or consultative methods are used also frequently (see Rauschmayer and Risse, 2005.
It is linked more strongly to structurally open methods and, thus, is able to deal with unknowns (see Therivel 2004).
and structurally closed methods is to support an appropriate usage of the FTA TOOLS in transport planning.
and structurally closed methods since in transport planning generally more than one method is applied. A typical issue,
Obviously, there was a too optimistic view on the potentials of these methods and not enough reflection on its limits.
it would have been subject of open methods to clarify these assumptions. This could have been structured a workshop with experts and/or stakeholders.
But we will focus here on some examples related to the methods used and the levels in uncertainties in the process.
With the help of structurally open methods, more clarity could have been achieved on this point in advance;
which needs further elaborating before a simulation (a structurally closed method) can lead to results accepted by both parties.
A structurally closed method alone, here the CBA, is not able to cope with such a known unknown.
Also in this case, more open methods would have been needed to raise awareness for the uncertainties in the planning.
Such a method could have been interviews with experts or stakeholders from different fields not only form the transport sector.
pointing at the potentials but also at the limits of the tools and methods used for the assessment.
and structurally closed methods in a careful and transparent manner. 5. Conclusions Policy interventions in the transport sector have to consider risks and uncertainties,
A PAGE 290 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 broad range of tools and methods exists that are used for assessing the impact of transport policy decision-making by trying to anticipate such effects.
None of the tools and methods are able to‘‘guarantee''that no unintended effects occur.
''The key argument is closed that methods are rather usable in situations where the system under consideration can reliably be described
In contrast, open methods are suitable to deal with situations or developments where knowledge about the system and its internal structures is rather weak.
structurally open methods are shaped strongly by qualitative elements; they seek for the integration of knowledge of different quality and character, for example in highly interdisciplinary contexts.
The theoretical background as well as the examples given in this paper illustrate that both types of methods are needed in planning processes.
Obviously, open methods are needed to better cover such social phenomena. The latter can be highly relevant in complex socio-technical fields such as the transport sector.
Such a problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS supports a better understanding of the potentials of different methods.
The categorisation should underpin that as soon as a structurally closed method is applied, a decision was made on
Further, the categorisation increases awareness for a more careful design and integration of structurally open methods.
inventory of tools and methods for early detection of adverse effects, available at: http://optic. toi. no Evans, S. H. and Mackinder,
concepts and methods'',Handbook of the Philosophy of Science, Volume 9: Philosophy of Technology and Engineering sciences, Elsevier, New york, NY, pp. 1103-45.
qualitative and quantitative tools and methods to detect unintended effects of transport policies, ''paper presented at the European Transport Conference, Glasgow, 12 october.
PAGE 292 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Kosow, H. and Gaßner, R. 2008),‘Methods of future and scenario analysis:
Design/methodology/approach The main method applied is combined critical thinking with a review of selected aspects of complexity theory
has focussed on adapting scenario techniques, Rami'rez and Van der Heijden (2008) or on wild card management, for example that based on weak signal methodologies, Mendonc¸a et al.
Other methods include observing patterns, relationships, and rhythms rather than events (a specific example of focusing on interactions rather than constituent parts of a system), promoting effective neighbourhoods, building networks of reciprocal interaction,
In particular they need to provide methods and skills (such as reframing) to visualise systems from very different perspectives including ones that are considered not possible now,
New methods for Applying Scenarios, Earthscan, London. Reynolds, C. 1987),‘Flocks, herds, and schools, a distributed behavioural model 1'',Computer graphics, Vol. 21 No. 4, pp. 25-34.
Backcasting scenarios for Finland 2050 of low emissions Sirkka Heinonen and Ville Lauttama ki Abstract Purpose The objective of this paper is to present an example on how futures studies methodologies,
Backcasting is particularly interesting method in this context, since it allows the key characteristics concerning the state of the future to be fixed according to the goals policymakers have set to achieve.
Design/methodology/approach The paper is a case study presenting the goals, progression and the results of the backcasting exercise of the Finnish Prime minister's Office.
Findings The backcasting methodology as applied in the exercise presented in this paper, is a useful tool in public policy formulation.
The key element for successful application of the method is the choice of expert group that produces the information.
experiences of using this methodology in the policy context are quite rare in the scientific literature.
This method fits very well for the use of public decision-makers since it allows comparing and reflecting between different policy alternatives that all are able to produce the determined development goals.
The project team from FFRC consisted of five researchers, with experience both in methodologies applied in the exercise and in climate and energy issues.
Methodology The scenario process was carried out as a concise Delphi process which consisted of two rounds of web questionnaires and of two futures workshops,
which is a basic characteristic of the method besides the iteration of the questionnaires and the anonymity of the expert panel's responses (see, e g.
they are a meta-technique not just a single method. Scenario is one of the most basic,
I Progress of the scenario process Phase Time Method Goal Material gathering and final design of the study September 2008 Literary review,
Backcasting is thus a normative method: it sets a preferred goal (Ho jer et al. 2011, p. 11.
and consisted of three consecutive elements as well as application of subsequent methods: the imaginary phase (futures wheel), systematic phase (futures table) and explanatory phase (drafting an array of scenarios for sustainable Finland 2050.
While, in line with the idea of backcasting method, all the scenarios are against current trends, they are still quite predictable (energy efficiency,
All in all, one can conclude that using futures studies methods in public policy formulation have promising possibilities. Especially participatory methods where views of various different VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 313 experts are considered are recommended highly.
Taking the participatory aspect further and also incorporating citizens in the process could increase the scope of different views
In the pallet of the methods of futures studies catering many different approaches to different needs can be found.
Regardless the choice of the methods, ample time to carry out the given foresight process so that it can best serve the needs of the client,
Emphasis should also be given on interpreting the results, even the odd ones that various methods of futures studies produce.
a proposed method of policy analysis'',Energy Policy, Vol. 10 No. 4, pp. 337-44. Robinson, J. 1990),‘Futures under glass:
accepted 1 october 2004 Abstract This paper contributes to the development of methods for mapping and understanding the dynamics of emerging technologies.
we will show the relevance of our method for CTA studies. D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
and develop a method for tracing them empirically (Section 2); important here are the dynamics of expectations and the processes of agenda building.
and by discussing the relevance of our method for constructive technology assessment, or CTA. 2 2 Constructive technology assessment studies of nanotechnology are at the moment being performed in The netherlands.
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1095 2. Method:
These steps make up the method we employ in this paper to perform the case study. These steps are elaborated on in Section 3. The case we discuss in the next section deals with nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
but with different methods (e g.,, AFM. These later developed microscopes are also capable of manipulating matter atom by atom. 7 In production however,
Fig. 5. Architecture of suspended nanotube memory 16.12 Lithography is a common method used in the computer chip manufacturing industry to produce desired structures in materials. 13 The research agenda on nanotubes have,
R. O. van Merkerk, H. van Lente/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1094 1111 1103 reported the latter method in 2001 26.
Here, Nantero being the only company working on this technique tries to mature the given technique (proof of principle) into a usable method for producing nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
Nanotubes used in nonvolatile memories Nantero tries to mature the technique (proof of concept) into a usable method for producing nonvolatile memories based on nanotubes.
It can therefore be concluded that by applying the method as developed in Section 2 insights in the fluidic situation and the dynamics of emerging technologies can be gained.
Our attempt relates to the historical trend of technology assessment methods to incorporate and exploit the actual technology dynamics 32.
Technology assessment (TA) started in the late 1960s as an dearly warningt method 33, merely to inform parliaments about possible negative effects of new technologies.
As argued above, applying the proposed method helps to increase this understanding. The same method, thus, will be useful as input for CTA studies in
which the perspectives and actions of multiple heterogeneous actors are involved. Understanding the dynamics from the different perspectives gives insight in the different points of view of the actors involved in the CTA study. 16 Finally,
while it is unfolding at this very moment gives the opportunity to observe (for example with the method proposed in this paper) the construction of the technology in a more symmetrical way.
To conclude, the method proposed in this paper appeared useful to organise the data and to structure it into a credible story.
By applying the method, insights are gained about the dynamics within the three levels and how the levels interact.
The proposed method will be useful to locate the various socio-technical scenarios and to view them in light of the dynamics at the separate levels.
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