Additionally, it suggests ways to reinforce the scenario design method with more in depth analysis, without losing its qualitative nature and communication advantages.
Design/methodology/approach These assumptions are tested in a scenario design exercise that explores the future evolution of the sustainable development paradigm and its implications in the Spanish urban development model.
Each of the five steps has its own geographical scope, objectives, operational methods, norms and administrative procedures.
so they will be forced to develop new methods and tools to meet the coming challenges. Second, the social debate inherent to urban planning and the need for stakeholder collaboration can be facilitated through a mutually beneficial symbiosis between futures studies and urban planning (Cole, 2001.
participatory methods that foster debate and analysis with a wide variety of stakeholders. 5. Networking.
territorial foresight gradually builds up an integrated vision of the possible future through participation methods. Foresight is thus complementary to the established planning processes
The stated foresight exercise followed the conventional scenario design methodology made up of three sequential stages:
the proposed methodology establishes a set of functional implications that each future scenario poses for the urban planning process.
I Main scenarios indicators 2025 Indicators Measurement unit 2010 Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Analytical methods and tools used for estimating indicators Society Population growth K
Figure 10 Spatial implications of Scenario C (2025) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 331 5. Applied approach to territorial foresight The proposed method to reconcile territorial
methods and approaches that enables them to acknowledge and anticipate the various possible futures that will guide society.
Design/methodology/approach The paper describes a series of real world examples and case studies pilot projects, research consortia
what is worse, the ones that exist lack proper methodology, failing to encompass the use of forecasting methods or foresight tools in the development of their studies.
This paper attempts to fill the gap produced by this notorious lack of methodology in the legal analysis of the future
what is worse, the ones that exist lack proper methodology, failing namely to encompass the use of forecasting methods or foresight tools in the development of their studies.
This paper attempts to fill the gap produced by this notorious lack of methodology in the legal analysis of the future,
forecasting and technology assessment methods and tools to the legal sphere. 2. Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA)‘‘Future-oriented technology analysis''(FTA) was created the term to encompass the different tools
In conceptual terms, the dialogue and the literature produced under the FTA common umbrella term have contributed greatly to the distinction and articulation of the many different methods,
After this preparatory phase, the Law of the Future project followed a meticulous methodology. As such, the LOTF team first identified a series of major global trends, both societal and legal.
combining qualitative with quantitative methods 14.3.3 Legislative drafting 3. 3. 1 Futurict. The Futurict project (www. futurict. eu) is a multidisciplinary international scientific endeavour with a special focus on techno-socioeconomic-environmental systems.
employing a variety of perspectives and methods''(Helbing, 2011); the‘‘Planetary Nervous system''will work as global sensor network,
a method according to which the desired future is envisioned first and only after this, the steps and actions to attain that future are defined.
The analytic methods used in the predictive-policing model do not identify specific individuals. Rather, they surface particular times
and contrary to mainstream academic though and methodology, I argue in favour of speculative (and disruptive) thought applied to legal research and teaching,
Such methods will potentially enable researchers and legislators to identify future regulatory gaps and needs.
Furthermore, the methodological integration of scenario planning with other FTA TOOLS also promises to bring important benefits to the study, drafting and enforcement of law.
Furthermore, the combination of scenario planning with other FTA instruments and methods such as modelling analysis and simulation platforms, brings additional advantages to Law.
In effect, the systemic collaboration between different FTA METHODS, namely between quantitative and qualitative methods is becoming increasingly popular
case studies and surveys as the most commonly used approaches (Blind, 2006), FTA would add to this methodological list other approaches that could render the evaluation of current laws,
also in its enforcement phase, can benefit from the use of future-oriented methods and instruments.
and assessment methods 21 for such activities (which is, in addition, a problem of FTA per se).
reflecting on the application of fta tools and methods (such as Delphi surveys, scenario planning, backcasting and modelling techniques) to the legal sphere,
methods and approaches that enable Law to acknowledge and anticipate (if not construct) the various possible future developments that will guide society.
For a clarification on the differences and similarities among the wide array of terms, methods and approaches that are included in the umbrella term of FTA, such as technology forecasting, technology assessment, roadmapping, technology foresight,
A concrete example of a combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in FTA, namely between scenario and modelling analysis, can be found in the so-called International Futures (IFS.‘‘
For an overview of the main issues and challenges associated with the combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in the field of FTA,
methodologies and selected applications'',paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville.
combining quantitative and qualitative methods, ''paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville.
Rader, M. and Porter, A l. 2008),‘Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study types'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R
This poses new challenges for roadmapping methodology in terms of level of aggregation and timeframe. D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
The assessment of emerging technologies implies the introduction of new methods into the toolkit of the TA practitioner.
These methods are coming from dneighbouringt disciplines and normally were developed for other purposes. Their potential for implementation and the needs for modification have to be discussed
It is no exaggeration to say that the known methodological problems of technology assessment come to a head here. 3. Nanotechnology Nanotechnology is among the most prominent emerging technologies,
the general methodology can be adapted from procedures that are used broadly in the assessment of conventional materials technologies.
Methods like Life cycle Analysis or Materials Flow Analysis are comparatively sharp swords in the analysis and assessment of ecological and economic impacts of new materials technologies.
These established methods are common in technology assessment and widely accepted internationally 5 . But the hopes and questions reach much further.
Such a reflexive procedure surely would take into account the numerous demands from the debate on sustainable research and technology policies. 4. Roadmapping methodology as a tool for technology assessment of nanotechnology?
For a detailed discussion of the different types of roadmaps, their scopes, objectives, methodologies and time-scales see e g.
Similar to roadmapping, there is no general methodology for technology assessment. TA projects can differ by task, subjects and questions of investigation and addressee.
Their design, structure and methodology depend on these factors and have to be determined on a case-by-case basis, taking the contextual framework into account 10.
and outputs as well as to review their methods toolbox 15. This is especially relevant when TA results are expected to contribute to the sustainability assessment of emerging technologies.
Technology assessment Methods and Impacts, Springer Heidelberg, New york, 2004. T. Fleischer et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1120 2 T. Fleischer, A. Grunwald, Technikgestaltung fu r mehr Nachhaltigkeit Anforderungen an die Technikfolgenabscha
mstnews 5, 2003, pp. 42 44.15 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field and new methods, Technol.
Forecast. Soc. Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303. Torsten Fleischer has a background in physics.
and studies dealing with methodological aspects of Technology assessment. Since 2003 he is a member of the scientific staff and since February 2004 deputy head of the Institute for Technology assessment and System Analysis (ITAS) at the Research centre Karlsruhe.
which formal methods and techniques play a subsidiary role following Wittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'.
They see a key role for FTA APPROACHES and methods in this. How to navigate in a landscape of interrelated innovation systems?
Poststructuralism as method. Futures 30, no. 8: 815 29. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:57 03 december 2014 734 Editorial Linstone, H. A. 2011a.
Based on the presented analysis, it highlights some methodological implications for future-oriented analysis and policy-making. The paper aims at a conceptual contribution that builds on several disciplines,
There are some methodological as well as pragmatic implications. Ontological expansion and foresight research The above discussed concepts of unpredictability
weak signals and scenario methodologies. In future-oriented research, the nature and implications of‘weak signals'have been debated actively during the last few years (Mendonça et al. 2004;
Philosophical, mathematical and methodological foundations. Oxford: Pergamon Press. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 751 Rossel, P. 2009.
which formal methods/techniques play a subsidiary role followingwittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'.
quantitattive methods Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic (Arthur C. Clarke) 1. Introduction Is there something phoney about foresight,
while conventional methodological matters are placed deliberately in diminuendo in Section 5. An example is given of how subjective opinion,
However, Wittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'needs to be constantly in mind to prevent any FTA becoming simply an exercise in technique manipulation that prevents any useful outcome.
It is not the intention to debate the merits of the methods and techniques listed
The literature relating to the methods used in FTA will not be reviewed but the next section necessarily sets out briefly their relation to the purpose of the paper, namely the influence of ignorance and uncertainty on FTA. 5. Quantitative and qualitative methods in FTA In a sense,
FTA is related to operations management. It was in that field that Meredith et al. 1989) developed the two-dimensional framework shown in Figure 1. Meredith's notions can help FTA practitioners'position methods to guide their role and use.
Figure 1 sets out compactly the influence of knowledge, and conversely of ignorance, on the Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance
. A framework for research methods (adapted from Meredith et al. 1989,139). selection of methods used in FTAINDICATING the nature of the knowledge (ignorance) each assumes to be present along the two axes.
On the vertical axis at the rational pole knowledge tends to be deductive, more formally structured, with a formal degree of objectivity and with a methodological proscription all of
which are influenced by the individual's behavioural pattern. In contrast at the existential pole, knowledge is more inductive, less structured, typically subjective,
These are second source methods, but may be the only efficient or effective way to obtain information about the situation artificial reconstruction of object reality is attempted in almost all modelling
's philosophical review described methods useful in operations management. It is appealing, because of its practical compactness,
Consequently, it enables judgements to be made on the mix of methods to be used. In selecting methods,
these judgements place less Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:56 03 december 2014 Ignorance and uncertainty 761 emphasis on philosophical matters and more on practical ones of concern in FTA,
In this example, it is the content of the methodology that is important and not its context
The full methodological description of the study has been referenced (Lipinski and Loveridge 1982) as it can only be summarised here.
but its sponsors (16 major companies and a UK Government department) agreed to publication of the methods used.
based on 10 variables chosen (here the variables are less important than the methods used) to describe the future situation of the UK.
and their meaning at scales and with methods that are unimaginable at the present time except to a few scientists.
Philosophy and methodology of the social sciences. Dordrecht, The netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers. Kurzweil, R. 2005. The singularity is near:
and is used with different methods, for different objectives and in different settings. Yet, anticipaatio in science and technology is limited not to foresight,
The next section will review the range of foresight exercises and their methods, objectives and settings. Section 3 will discuss the main findings of the sociology of expectations,
Generally, foresight is distinguished according to method, objectives and setting. Various typologies of methods are available, and the review article of Porter (2004) lists the nine families of foresight methods including quantitative and qualitative explorations and forms of stakeholder involvement.
The objectives of foresight may also differ. The basic idea is that decision-making in firms
Apart from methods and objectives, foresight exercises also differ in the settings in which they are used.
to be examined by psychological methods. Collective expectations, on the other hand, are available in public statemennts They are shared not in the sense that everyone accepts them as valid,
Overarching vague visions that initiate and coordinate projects may run into trouble as soon they become more specific. 4. Lessons for foresight Foresight concerns a diverse set of policy exercises with different methods, objectives and settings(‘arenas'.
A review of foresight highlights the diversity in methods, objectives and settings(‘arenas'.'The review of the sociology of expectations discussed how expectations legitimise,
Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective. Futures 43, no. 3: 265 78.
Toward integration of the field and new methods. Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 3: 287 303.
Towards a method for evaluating technological expectations: Revealing uncertainty in gene silencing technology discourse. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos. 3 4: 345 59.
Methods and data The research design is based on an inductive and multiple-case study of a group of selected firms.
It therefore decided to use scenarios as its basic methodology for tackling the challenge of investigating the major driving forces
Toward integration of the field and new methods. Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 3: 287 303.
A new methodology for regional foresight. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 3, no. 2: 218 34.
Design and methods. 3rd ed. Newbury Park, CA: Sage. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014
The armoury of methods that can be used to support and inform aspects of these decisions is considerable,
Foresight demands thatwittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'be in mind constantly.
which can be achieved through FTA APPROACHES and methods (Cagnin et al. 2008). This is a key aspect for policy interventtion Ultimately,
On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues. Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 208 21.
which included ways both to benchmark our methods and to deliver practical results. The first step was to create Sandia-specific visualizations of the IAS.
The landscape maps were created using a process consistent with commonly accepted methods of mapping knowledge domains 1 (see Fig. 1:!
Our LSA methodology differs slightly from that above in that we use semidiscrete decomposition 6, 7 rather than SVD to do the term matrix deconstruction.
and capacity building We suggest that roadmapping is a felicitous method for fostering and steering systemic transformattio capacities.
is an adaptive process-based methodology well suited for systemic contexts (see Ahlqvist, Valovirta, and Loikkanen 2012):
Process-based roadmapping is a scalable method that can be used to study the micro-level for example,
and as a process methodology. 1 Roadmapping combines different modes of knowledge with specific activity layers (Kostoff and Schaller 2001;
In other words, roadmaps are tools for the combination of organisational knowledge that may be‘unlinkable'with other strategic methods (see e g.
As a process methodology, roadmapping consists of several modules. Modularisation allows one to form a tailored‘response chain'to answer different kinds of research and development problems (see, e g.
Here, we call this methodology process-based roadmapping. It is based on an idea that roadmaps are like visual narratives describiin the most critical paths of future developments (Phaal and Muller 2009.
but instead they are approached as knowledge umbrellas that, by integrating different analytical methods, produce a visual strategy manuscript for an organisattion Strategy roadmapping is also about engaging
Knowledge spaces and roadmap scopes How is it possible to combine the roadmapping methodology with the creation of structural openness, an anticipatory agency,
Scope is a more traditional insight into roadmapping methodology that separates, for example, technology roadmaps and market roadmaps.
This category also contains a methodology of innovation policy roadmapping (see Ahlqvist, Valovirta, and Loikkanen 2012.
foresight and organisational learning methods were integrated in a workshop process. During the workshops in 2009, some 30 VTT researchers and management representatives built shared understanding of the field.
The process was based on a novel combination of methods. The integrative methodology rested on the model of expansive learning (Engeström 2001.
In the process, two practical methods were added to the model of expansive learning. First, impact evaluation was used to gain a systematic view of the past (see Halonen, Kallio, and Saari 2010.
Second, roadmapping was used to trigger participatory, future-oriented thinking. Roadmapping was divided into two phases. The first roadmapping phase traced the big picture of the service landscape from the present moment (2009) until 2025.
and vision for the future Social/actor Identification of most important players in the field of service research internally and externally Capacities and methods for linking and sharing existing knowledge internally,
opportunities and challenges Markets for new services and service providers in the field Capacities and methods for creating new knowledge in the network Endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research both in Finland and Europe
In the case of the visionary space, methods that bring more creative latitude, such as constructing exploratory future narratives
(i) organisational development enabled by new communicational methods and (ii) marketing issues of environmental technologies. Nina Wessberg is a senior scientist in Foresight and Socio-Technical change team at VTT.
A method for learning in networks. International Journal of Quality and Service Sciences 2, no. 1: 128 45.
These methods keyed on technical system parameters, somewhat more than on socioeconnomi system aspects. That is because they were driven initially by cold war considerations that concentrated on functional gains more than on cost
Rather, this method gathers information pursuant to the various steps, quite willing to revisit the earlier steps as one learns more about the emerging technology
The primary aim is to convey the method, with a secondary interest in the DSSC characterisation. 4. 1. Compose TDS (Step B) The TDS approach is akin to other technology innovation system approaches,
The research profiling method applied to nano-enhanced, thin-film solar cells. R&d Management 40, no. 2: 195 208.
Types and methods. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 6, nos. 1/2/3: 36 45.
Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group (Alan L. Porter, Brad Ashton, Guenter Clar, Joseph F. Coates, Kerstin Cuhls, Scottw.
Toward integration of the field and new methods. Technological forecasting and Social Change 71, no. 1: 287 303.
methods to get information for discussion on strategies of sustainable growth through science and technology. It seeks to address the combination of outputs in an objective manner to identify expected areas of future innovation toward the desired future as well as related areas that are supposed to play a key part.
Design/methodology/approach Three investigative studies using the Delphi method, scenario and workshop were conducted independently in consideration of four global or national challenges.
and Technology foresight in Japan A variety of methods have been adopted in alignment with the objectives of a project including extrapolative/normative methods or qualitative/quantitative methods.
and scenario are three major methods that are used commonly around the world, and they are all qualitative (European commission, 2009).
Combining methods has been recognized as a precondition of successful foresight since a variety of combinations have been discussed
A tailor-made combination of different methods is employed widely to obtain implications for policy making (Cuhls et al.
The 9th Foresight exercise employed three different types of methods to meet this requirement: 1. Delphi that focuses on the technological aspect;
which were carried out independently by using the methods mentioned above. The three studies complement each other:
Scores are assigned to all the keywords by the term frequency-inverted document frequency (TF-IDF) method shown below that is generally used in text mining;
Correspondence analysis is used a widely method to grasp the relations between two different categories of data.
employing methods of Delphi, scenario, and workshop in consideration of the four global or national challenges.
could be regarded as an acceptable approach to take every advantage of method employed and position potential areas of future innovation with related areas to be promoted together in the whole picture.
Design/methodology/approach The authors compare strategic dialogues with existing dialogue instruments and investigate the relevance of their theoretical foundations to transferring foresight results into research policy making.
Originality/value The transfer of foresight results into research policy making has featured not prominently so far in discussions of foresight efforts and methods.
and conducted with maximum care and methodological stringency. Research policy makers do not just require the structured view of the future that foresight activities provide
which established models and methods are suitable for such dialogues. Welp et al. 2006) have investigated this area for science-based stakeholder dialogues.
similar types of strategic dialogues can be employed as a method whenever consensus views of complex and controversial issues need to be generated based on constructive debate and mutual trust,
2006) consider three theoretical frameworks to derive effective methods and techniques in a range of dialogue situations.
Design/methodology/approach The foresight project is described and provides knowledge and analysis for a broader, national research prioritisation exercise.
The method used in the case study is to examine outputs from the foresight project conducted on global drivers and trends and their (national) implications for research and enterprise.
Section 3 presents the methodology used in The irish case study. The main results from the foresight exercise on global drivers,
context and methodology 3. 1 Introduction to the case study analysis The presentation and analysis of the case study below is based on my role as part of the research
create high quality jobs''3. 3. 3 Project methodology A methodology was designed and implemented that provided the main output required by Forfa's i e. a catalogue of global drivers and trends together with an analysis of their potential impact and opportunities for The irish research and enterprise base.
An iterative methodology, consisting of different stages of analysis of the drivers and trends, and a series of meetings and workshops, served to validate
Although not explicitly designed into the methodology at the outset the identification of grand challenges was introduced
Two methods were used during this phase:‘‘‘‘roundtable discussions''and interviews. Twelve roundtable discussions were facilitated with senior representation from a cross-section of policy areas, mainly from government ministries and agencies (approximately 90 participants in total.
Some of the challenges constructed through the methodology are aligned well with the larger themes discussed within Europe during recent years.
The method described in this paper is but one example of how work on grand challenges could be refined
Design/methodology/approach The three foresight studies used different methodologies depending on the project's goal. First the projects'interconnections are explained.
including their aims, structures, methodologies and results. Finally their influence on policy-making is evaluated. Findings The paper concludes that implementation of these three interrelated studies allows identification of S&t&i priorities that have a strong connection with policy decision making.
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 41 2. Methodology The methodology of the paper includes several steps:
Then we present the project's methodology (methods used, stages, number of experts engaged and main criteria for analysis). Finally the main results are described and illustrated.
''The methodology of this study included various expert and analytical techniques being engaged to prepare this S&t foresight (analytical research, bilbliometric and patent analysis, interviews with and polling of experts,
B survey methodologies; VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 43 B expert panels; B data analysis;
the methodology was adjusted also properly. An important new methodological aspect was the development of roadmaps, the identification of potential large-scale innovation projects,
and most promising research areas offering significant innovative potential. This foresight methodology consisted of various expert techniques (surveys
this paper aims to address a structured analysis method for future technology trajectories and interactions by mapping
The objective of this paper is to develop an integrative method for systematically clustering, analyzing and visualizing the path for technology development and transformation.
Design/methodology/approach Delphi topics related to sustainable energy were collected from strategic foresight reports of Japan South korea and China,
Originality/value The integrative method in this research provides a way to combine both the advantage of strategic technology foresight
Therefore, it is crucial to develop a systematical method in which future trends can be detected easily, analyzed and visualized.
or standard classification system will make it easier to take a cross-foresight comparison and for analysis. Therefore, a structured mapping method that uses a worldwide accepted international classification system i e.
and has become a widely accepted and frequently used research method, especially for foresight or for future oriented research.
Delphi is a subjective-intuitive research method that aims at a consensus PAGE 56 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 on a particular topic among a group of experts,
) Previous publications have proved that the technique is established an method for foresight activities and that Delphi outperforms other group formats such as statistical groups or standard interacting groups in terms of effectiveness (Rowe and Wright, 1999).
It is assumed commonly that the method makes better use of group interaction (Rowe et al. 1991), whereby the questionnaire is the medium of interaction (Martino, 1983.
Field 1 Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy 2 Audiovisual technology 3 Telecommunications 4 Digital communication 5 Basic communication processes 6 Computer technology 7 IT methods
where the possible source technologies comprise technologies 7 (IT methods for management), 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 23 (Chemical engineering), 24 (Environmental technology
Source technologies comprise technologies 7 (IT methods for management), 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry
''and‘‘Development nuclear waste processing method that can reduce the size of nuclear fuel after use
and the corresponding technology development will be an important priority. 4. Conclusion The main objective of this paper has been to address a structured analysis method.
The proposed method can help to identify future technology trajectory and interaction by mapping and associating the future technology themes described in strategic foresight reports from selected countries with a state of the-art-the art technology classification system.
In summary, there are some operational and methodological benefits that can be provided by the integrative analytic method of this study.
Also, the method combines both the advantage of strategic technology foresight and competitive technology intelligence, by utilizing the results derived from the former as a target for analysis
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