which addressed the challenge of increasing the impact of future-oriented technology analysis on policy and decision-making. HE RECENT ONSET OF CRISES AND challenges ranging from climate change, finanncia and economic downturns,
forecasting and technology assessment to reflect on these challenges. The third conference focused on the impact that FTA can have on policy and decisiionmaking and its implications.
karelherrmanhaegeman@ec. europa. eu. Dr Jennifer Harper is at the Malta Council for Science and Technology, Villa Bighi, Kalkara CSP 12, Malta;
and shape future technological developmennts mainly, technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment. The FTA labbe brings together a set of widely differing techniqques
building on a typology proposed during the first FTA conference in Seville by the Technology Future Analysis methods Working group (see Table 1). Keenan
Karel Haegeman is a scientific officer at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the European Commisssion His activities focus on both advancing
Dr Jennifer Cassingena Harper is the director of policy within the Malta Council for Science and Technology with responsibility for national research and innovation strategy and foresight.
She represents Malta at EU level on the Joint research Centre Board of Governors, the Euro-Mediterranean Monitoring Committee for Research and Technology development and the Framework programme 7, Regions Programme Committee.
and application of the ways that science and technology contribute to economic and social development, of the possibilities for managing research and technology more effectively,
Technology watch, tech mining (Porter and Cunningham, 2005), web mining (van de Lei and Cunningham, 2006) Descriptive Bibliometrics
, complex adaptive systems modelling, chaotic regimes modelling, technology diffusion or substitution analyses, input output modelling, agent-based modelling Logical/causal analyses
Roadmapping Backcasting, technology/product roadmapping, science mapping multipath mapping (Robinson and Propp, 2006) Scenarios Scenario management, quantitatively based scenarios, different emphases and dark scenarios (Punie et al.
which helps to understand how technology can be used to combat EID at every stage of their lifecycle.
The project also created a new network of scientific and technological experts in the area of biosecurity,
a consortium of industry partners and the Interdiscipliinar Institute for Broadband Technology founded by the Flemish government.
Technology assessment: Methods and Impacts. Springer: Berlin, Heidelberg, New york. Eerola, A and I Miles 2008. Methods and tools contributing to FTA.
Tech Mining: Exploiting New technologies for Competitive advantage. New york: Wiley. Punie, Y, I Maghiros and S Delaitre 2006.
Dark scenarios as a constructive tool for future-oriented technology analysis: safeguaard in a world of ambient intelligence (SWAMI.
In Future-Oriented Technology Analysiis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, C Cagnin, M Keenan, R Johnson, F Scapolo and R Barré (eds..
a case of the Technology Promotion Association (Thailand Japan. Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis,
and environmental challenges and in addressing the potential of emerging areas of science and technology in an integrated way.
and sciennc and technology (S&t) foresight and other FTA TOOLS by its wide scope and its function to envisage the complexity of future societal problems
5 but these scanning activities seem to have limited a very scope (only assesssin new health technologies).
and Public policy February 2010 9 horizon scans can be narrower in scope (only looking for new technologies),
The exercise of the High-level Expert Group on Key technologies for Europe9 can also be considered a horizon scanning exercise,
but with a scope that is more directed towards technologgy The Euro-scan10 is also worth mentioning as an example of a scan with a more focused character (new health technologies).
system NBIC Educational system Nanotech and science Agri-food supply ICT mathematics Infrastructures Mathematics Armed forces ICT Geology Engineering Economics Chemistry Biology
but also on potential breakthroughs, analysis of risks, uncertainties and unexpected events that are considered as potentially disruptive in the future.
developmental policy and technology) and to establish the interface between policy, research and society. An important tool of these sector counciil was participative foresight that developed over time
DASTI is an agency of the Danish Ministry of Sciennce Technology and Innovation that aims to promoot research and innovation of a high international standard for the benefit of Danish society, facilitating development in economic,
which is acknowledged in the research 2015 document (Daniis Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, 2008) that sets the stage for research prioritisation in Denmark for the coming four years in a clear relationnshi to the challenges facing
Technology and Innovatiio project that focuses on the involvement of civiliaan through horizon scanning driven public debate (CIVISTI),
15 the Searching Emerging science and Technology project (SESTI) 16 and the I-KNOW projeec that both focus more on new methodologies to identify
technology assessment and other foresigght) By repeating the scanning on a regular basis more insight can be gained on the impact of these activities
but also to the widely assumed connection to climate change, the futuur technological possibilities and scientific breakthroough (which all may lead to better ways for saving,
the Danish Agency for Science Technology and Innovatiio (DASTI), the UK Horizon scanning Centre, the Commisssi van Overleg Sectorraden voor Onderzoek en Ontwikkeling (COS), the Malta Council
which was limited more for the Danish scan due to the fact that the Danish scan had limited a purpose. 4. Australia and New zealand Horizon scanning Network (health technology scan).
Canadian Agency for Drugs and Technologies in Health, Environnmenta Scanning Service. Available at<http://www. cadth. ca/index. php/en/hta/programs/horizonscanning>,last accessed 1 february 2010.6. UK HSC.
towards a research strategy beyoon Lisbon, Key technologies Expert Group. Available at<ftp://ftp. cordis. europa. eu/pub/foresight/docs/keytechnoologiesreport. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
The European Information Network on New and Changing Health Technologies. Available at<http://www. euroscan. bham. ac. uk/index. htm>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
Finnsight 2015, the outlooo for science technology and society. Summary available from<http://www. aka. fi/Tiedostot/Tiedostot/Julkaisut/Finnsight 2015 en. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
Danish Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation 2008. RESEARCH2015 A Basis for Prioritisation of strategic Reseaarch Available from<http://en. fi. dk/publications/publications-2008/research2015-a-basis-for-prioritisation-ofstrattegicres/research2015-net. pdf
Defense Science and Technology agency Singapore 2009. Horizonsscan available at<http://www. dsta. gov. sg/index. php/943-DSTA-Horizons-2009>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
Direction générale de l'Industrie, des Technologies de l'informatiio et des Postes, 2000. Technologies clés 2005 (septembre 2000.
Available from<http://www. limousin. drire. gouv. fr/di/di/fichiers%20pour%20liens/Technocles. pdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
Creative system disrupttion towards a research strategy beyond Lisbon, Report of the Key technologies Expert Group. Available from<ftp://ftp. cordis. europa. eu/pub/foresight/docs/key-technologiesrepportpdf>,last accessed 1 june 2009.
HE INFORMATION AND communication technologies (ICT) sector accounted for about 5%of the size of the European economy and 3%of total employment in 2005 (Turlea et al.
highly digitisable nature of the goods it produces combined T Fabienne Abadie (corresponding author) is at European Commisssio Directorate Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospectiiv Technological Studies, Edificio EXPO
Those lead to significant changes both in everyday life and business models under the combined influence of technological, organisational and behavioural innovations.
ICT evolution has become so fast and pervasive that it is increasingly difficult to predict the emergence of new technologies or the evolution of existing ones,
As explained above, the creative content sector is characterised by huge uncertainties in scientific-technological as well as in socioeconomic and institutional terms.
we preseen our methodology, analysing its most important Fabienne Abadie is a scientific officer at the Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies workiin on techno-economic foresight studies and the impact of ICTS on the Information society.
Michael Friedewald is head of the business unit for informatiio and communication technologies at the Fraunhofer Instiitut for Systems and Innovation research, Karlsruhe, Germany.
Matthias Weber is the head of the Technology policy Unit at the Austrian Institute of technology in Vienna.
He has worked for many years as a scientist and policy advisor on research, technology and innovation policy, both at national and European level.
as well as about the lessoon learnt from the methodological approach devellope for dealing with fast and potentially disruptive changes of both a scientific-technological and socioeconomic nature.
but further analysis was required to assess the role and impact of technology trends and user behaviour.
We described relevant technologies within our establisshe framework i e. classifying them within creatiion distribution and user interaction and we highlighted some essential trends of change, identifyyin opportunities and threats for the European indusstr in each of the sub-sectors.
and the opportunities offeere by a technology on the other. The analysis was successful in providing a picture of emerging trends that impact the creative content sector.
unchanging nature of consumer demands and the radical changes brought into the creative content sector by digital technologies,
Finally, content is more important to consumers than the technologies necessary to access or use it,
The above technology and social/societal trends and the way they interact with one another provide intereestin insights for market players devising business plans
Delphi survey We used the Delphi method to elicit views from a wide-ranging audience on current and future trends Box 1. The creative content sector on the move Figure 3 shows the various stakeholders involved and the technology trends
The results show variations in the interactions between technologies and actors along the various value chains for reasons inherent in the varying degree of digitisation in each sub-sector and the market structures that have prevailed in each domain until recently.
2008) Some key technology trends include: new business models with transformation of creative content goods into services;
innovative enterprises that experts regaar as the drivers of technological and business changes can be supported in an environment that is currently dominated by a few globally active corporations;
Consequently, our impact assessment focused on four categories of issues (technology, regulatory, market and user related), each encompassing a number of sub-issues.
These issues may be technological, regulatory, market-related, userrellate or of a broader societal nature. They will be decisive for the future pathway of the creative conteen sector.
or crosscutting technological solutions as in the case of seamless (IPR-based) networks or mobile communications.
technology issues (e g. usability, methods and tools for multi-channel production; regulatory issues (e g. balance between monopoly and competition, digital rights;
cultural diversity, three-dimensional technologies, next generation networks etc. and are dealt with in different areas of the European commission.
and Figure 5. Creative content goods, impact on industrial structure and key technologies Source: Mateos-García et al.
They relate to technology market, regulatory, user-related and socieeta issues. For instance, the role of incumbents compared to that of user-based communities is seen differently by different stakeholders.
like with display technology, human computer interfaces or creativity enhancing tools. The need for standardisatiio and technical platforms to facilitate research
Finally, the creative content sector foresight becaam a particular challenge because of the high degrre of uncertainty in all (technological, economic, social and structural) dimensions,
When New technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail. Boston, MA: Harvard Business school Press. Eriksson, E A and K M Weber 2008:
and SITRA) and the Helsiink University of Technology) in Finland, Foresiigh in the UK, the Denmark National Technology Board,
which they divided into technological/scientific aspects and socieeta impacts (see Table 2) . However, there are some who feel that success should not be based on program impact.
154) technology assessment is:..not designed to directly influence political decision making, but to prepare knowledge that is relevant for decision making.
technology and innovation program development. Since founding the Office of Technology foresight at the National research council in 2002, he has led
or been an advisor to collaborative foresight projects in several emergiin science and technology (S&t) domains such as:
technology and innovation priorities Creating a language and body of practice for thinking about the future A source of inspiration for policy system actors More comprehensive,
Buetschi and Nentwich (2000) identified several context or foundational success factors for influencing the political role of participatoor technology assessment (see Table 3). These studies tell us that FTA EXERCISES should not be viewed independently of their contexts
and opinions Initiating action Scientific and technological aspects Scientific assessment: i e. assessing technology options in a transparent manner;
comprehensive overviews of consequences included Agenda setting: i e. engaging in the political process, debates; stimulating public engagement and introducing visions,
innovations implemented and legislation adopted Table 3. Success factors influencing the political role of participatory technology assessment Societal Institutional Process properties Good timing
and Denmark National Technology Board and Spain Regional foresight (also identified as countries that had used foresight in more specific applicatiion related to national policy development.
need-driven) Understanding the interaction between technology and the society. e g. what is enhanced? made obsolescent?
Mcluhan Tetrad Model) Define priority areas for technology policy Survey national technological development Stimulate development in priority areas of technology development and research;
thus stimulate the development in these areas Better understanding the interaction among technologies and realize gains resulting from this interaction Allocate funding for research
and the improvement of industrial competitiveness Develop technology and innovation policies Improve the co-operation among different stakeholders Develop the planning
and implementation of technology policy Understand the best methods and use of foresight Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 37 Results:
In Japan, S&t foresight activities feature a recurriin national iterative Delphi technology poll, and also include a quarterly international journal.
These are managed by the NISTEP within the Ministry of Education, Science, Technology Sports and Culture (MEXT.
This center is hosted by Thailand's National science & Technology development Agency (NSTDA. 2 Finland has a mix of agencies
so that they can integrate the important tools of technology foresiigh into advice to government. The UK seems to have developed this capacity the most where the science advisor has repeatedly been able to engaag key ministries as joint sponsors and receptoor for the results.
bio-economy and enabling technologies convergence were completed that could have influenced the policy agenda had there been a policy receptor most of these having been displaced by a highly centralized politically managed priorities exercise
which align with some of the areas where policy will be required,(e g. health technology, agricultural innovation,
'Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Futuureoriented Technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
Danish Board of Technology. Carlson, L W 2004. Using technology foresight to create business value. Research Technology management, 47 (5), 51 61.
European foresight monitoring Network Mapping Reports 2005 2007. Available at<http://www. foresight-network. eu>,last accessse 3 february 2010.
New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assesssmen Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. Ladikas, Miltos and Michael Decker 2004.
Assessing the impact of future-oriented technology assessment. Paper presented at EU US Seminar: New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain.
Rollwagen, Ingo, Jan Hofmann and Stefan Schneider 2006. Criterri for improving the business impact of foresight at Deutsche bank:
Technologies that are potentially effective in biosecurity and in combating EID were identified first by bibliometric analysis, online survey and scenario planning.
Roadmaps of these technologies were built then. Workshops to conduct the foresight process were held in the region.
This paper deals with cross-disciplinary technologies in the context of a cross-boundary regional setting,
B Nares Damrongchai is at the APEC Center for Technology foresight, National science Technology and Innovation policy Office, 73/1 Rama 6 Road, Rajdhevee, Bangkok 10400, Thailaand Email:
He is now at the Government Information technology Services, National science and Technology development Agency, 17th Floor, Bangkok Thai Tower Building, 108 Rangnam Rd, Phayatthai Ratchatewi, Bangkok 10400, Thailand;
Chatri Sripaipan is at the Natioona Science and Technology development Agency, 73/1 Rama 6 Road, Rajdhevee, Bangkok 10400, Thailand;
The world health sector continues to seek new technologies and approaches which are needed to combat these threats,
when linked to genetics, biotechnnology nanotechnology and bioinformatics. Cross-disciplinary and‘converging'technologies Recently the concept of cross-disciplinarity,
that furthhe develops into‘converging technologies'has emerged in the US and in Europe. It emphasizes producctiv interactions between previously separate fields of research and technological development.
Such shifts can result in new technological possibilitiies with potentially revolutionary impacts associated with changing innovation patterns, industry structurres and broader developments in society.
It has been proposed that a new paradigm is develoopin in the 21st century based on the combinatiio of nanotechnology, biotechnology,
IT and cognitive sciences (NBIC) and that these converging technologies could radically change society, econoom and culture in the next 20 years.
Areas suggested include: societal productivity; security from natural and man-made disasters; providing sustenance for an ageing population;
In the US the term‘converging technologies'was used first at a 2001 workshop organized by the US National science Foundation and the US Departmeen of Commerce entitled‘Converging Technologiie for Improving Human Performance'.
2004) directed to the application of converging technologies to development of a Europeea knowledge society. This report contains the pragmatic definition:
Converging technologies are enabling technoloogie and knowledge systems that enable each other in pursuit of a common goal Nares Damrongchai obtained his MPHIL degree from the University of Cambridge, UK and a doctorate in engineering from Tokyo Institute of technology.
He took part in developiin the roadmap for Thailand's first biotechnology policy framework. He is currently the executive director of the APEC Center for Technology foresight and the director of Policy Research and Management at the National science Technology and Innovation policy Office, Bangkok,
Thailaand His work includes foresight research, training, and consulting internationally. His recent research interests incluude converging technologies to combat emerging infectiiou diseases and climate change.
Ponpiboon Satangput graduated from the University of Cambridge in 2001 and obtained a Phd in medical physiic from the same university in 2005.
and the US for a number of years followed by administration of industrria research and of government science and technology (S&t) in Australia.
In 1997, he joined the Natioona Science and Technology development Agency (NSTDA) of Thailand as co-director of the APEC Center for Technology foresight,
and acting director of the Science, Technology and Innovation policy Research Division and retired as the vice-president for policy.
Converging technologies are enabling technologies and knowledge systems that enable each other in pursuit of a common goal Biosecurity
'The technology roadmapping method has been used in the present authors'previous region-wide studies (APEC CTF, 2006.
The new challenge in the present study is the roadmapping of converging technologies within the diversity of the Asia-pacific region.
Vaccine development and delivery can be speeded up using genetics, nanotechnology, moleccula biology and bioinformatics. Moreover, health systems research using social sciences,
epidemioloog and anthropology is needed to understand how new technologies can be used most effectively from the viewpoints of the needs,
the mappiin between key technologies that should converge in each stage of the EID life cycle, and the roadmaps to develop those technologies that respond to user requirements.
Methodology Conduct of the project: overview The project was organized into two phases. Phase I was designed to identify the potential issues related to EID.
, nanostructured drugs) Nano-Informatics (e g.,, NEMS, Nanoelectronics) Bioinformatics (e g.,, Genomic Analysis, Biomedical Imaging) Bio-Info-Nano Converging Tech.
e g.,, NEMS based Biochip) Figure 1. Examples of converging technologies, APEC Center for Technology foresight (www. apecforesight. org) 2006 Source:
Phucharoenchanachai (2005) Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 44 In Phase II, the objective was to determine directiion for future R&d
so that APEC member economiie can ready themselves to respond to the region's needs. To achieve this objective,
the technology roadmapping technique was applied to analyze the linkage between the development of supporting technologies
participants were asked to identify potential technology applications that could be used to prevent or reduce the impact of the crisis as described in each scenario.
Technology roadmapping The structure of the roadmaps used in this study was designed by adapting from the generic format of a product/technology roadmap (Phaal et al.
) The basic elements of a generic roadmap representiin market, products, technology, R&d programs, and resources, were changed into the elements listed below:
development of technologies supporting the requirements; key technical and policy challenges that could Aim to exchange experts'views about the severity of infectious diseases
and management of EID Aim to develop roadmaps of technology applications that have high impact to combat EID Aim to develop roadmaps of technology research domain
and identify key technology applications to combat EID Phase II Final Symposium Roadmapping II Roadmapping I Figure 2 Information flow through the project Biosecurity and
emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 45 possibly hinder the progress of technology developmment
and R&d programs/activities required in delivering the desired technologies. The time frame of the roadmaps was divided into three periods:
Experts discussed the future changes in medical requirements in each research domain, the types of supporting technologies needed,
Results and policy impact/implications Scenarios and EID life cycle model The scenario workshop listed key drivers for EID in the areas of social, technology, economics, environmeent and politics (STEEP.
and unpredicted breakthrroug technologies. These resulted in the followiin four distinctive scenarios: Scenario 1: Malaria in Miami 2017.
A range of technologies was put to use to stop the virus. One year later,
) According to the model, technological approaches can be used to combat EIDS at every stage of their life cycle, from preventive measures such as vacciine to biosensors for surveillance, bioassays for detection, drugs for treatment,
Future diagnostic or communication technologies could potentially improve upon the likelihood and timing of diagnoosi and reporting.
Since the scenario workshop, this EID life cycle model has been employed throughout the project as the structure for discussions in the technology roadmapppin workshops in both Japan and Chinese Taipei and the final symposium in Bangkok.
and the EID life cyclle experts at the following first technology roadmapppin workshop have identified key domains of technology research, namely ubiquitous computing, treatments,
The key user requirements were identified for the three technology research domains. Table 1 shows one example:
and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 47 find more technology applications. The additional technology applications identified were:
modelling, vaccines and animal tracking. The discussions at the workshop revealed their inter-relationships both with one another
The role of technoloog convergence as the key to success in developing the technologies was confirmed further.
All the technology research and application domaain identified in the roadmapping workshops fit with the life cycle model (see Figure 5). In keeping with the theme of converging technologies,
there are links between all of the technology domains as shown earlier in Figure 4. To better illustrate the specific roles that technoloogie can contribute in combating EIDS
this paper gives an example of a diagnostic technologies roadmap (Table 3) as one among the six technology roadmaps developed in the study.
Table 3 shows the landscape of diagnosstic technology application as seen from both the user's and the technology developer's point of view.
and a natural infecttion Appropriate diagnostic technologies are also critical for surveillance programs. In some cases diagnoosti technology also plays a crucial role in the prevention of spread.
Policy implications With strong user inputs in scientific and managemeen issues, the foresight project appears to have high potential to inspire
and Technology Working group Meeting held in March 2009 in Mexico. Elsewhere the report was disseminated throughout the Asia-pacific region
with potential involvemeen of the APEC Center for Technology Foresiigh and its partnering scientists. It is hoped that eventually the outcome of this project will assist developing APEC member economies
and detection (S&d) Treatment (Tr) Prevention of spread (Pos) Vaccine Animal tracking Diagnostic Ubiquitous computing Vaccine Drugs Modeling Figure 5. Contribution of technologies
medicine with testing linked to information networks and personalized treatment High throughput technologies Rapid pathogen genetic characterization, high level of biosecurity Users'requirement Access to latest technologies
Automated data collection and analysis Technology Lateral flow and other point of care devices, low cost Low cost tests of greater sensitivity, gene amplification Screening technologies
high polymerase chain reaction capacity High throughput genetic sequencing Multiplex testing Access to latest and developing diagnostic technologies High-level investigative capacity and capability Local site Regional
and personal diagnostic technologies in the community without adverse implications Education and communication to public (so that public understands the significance of EID control) Challenges:
technical, social, economic and political Ownership and sharing of biological material Long-term budget system for EID technology development and deployment, APEC‘Centers of Excellence'APEC collaboration projects
and information was provided to this surveillance project especiaall with respect to the technological trends and policy recommendations of technologies in ubiquittou computing, modeling,
The life cycle model can be linked to six significaan technology domains: vaccines, diagnostics, ubiquitous computing, tracking, modeling and drugs.
and commercialization of devices and systeems Yet the convergence of technologies will not come in the same form as the convergence in informattio and communications technologies,
but rather different technologies will play different roles and interact in a particular value chain,
and technology roadmapping) bears interesting potential and advannce important methodological issues in FTA. Bibliometric analysis and online survey complement each other in providing insights
where and how different technologies are required by users, what are the necessary R&d issues, the key success factors and the barriers,
then the landsccap of each technology application domain emerged. To this, the final stage (technology roadmappping added the details of a proposed‘working plan'that are suitable in different time frames
so that decision-makers in each member economy of the APEC could invest in their R&d programs
Hence, the unique contribution of this paper lies in its dealing with cross-disciplinary technologies (converging technologies) in a cross-boundary regioona setting (Asia-pacific.
where the context of technology applications in a multilateral R&d agenda is usually not fully explored.
and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 50 identification of‘technology roadmaps'that are to be applied to a wider geographical area and more diverse level of technology capacity and socioeconommi development.
while technologies are moviin faster towards convergence. The implication of this project is that it has creatte a new network of knowledgeable and concerned scientists and technologists in the field of biosecurity in the Asia-pacific region.
This can provide a focus for further cooperation. The APEC structure may provide a route to developing this cooperation by sharing of information,
However, the applicatiio of these new technologies in developing economies needs to be undertaken with great care, recognizing that there are major infrastructural, cultuura and social differences.
while networking and technology transfer in certain areas are a viable option. This project is a contribution to the better understanndin of the provision of accelerated technologicca responses to combating EID and biosecurity in the APEC region and of the role of S&t in providiin those responses through the concept of convergiin technologies.
It is only a beginning and there is a need for further action by individual economies
This project was funded by the Asia-pacific Economic Cooperaatio (APEC) and the National science and Technology Developmmen Agency Ministry of Science and Technology, Royal Thai government.
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