Science and Public policy February 2010 0302-3427/10/010041-10 US$12. 00 Beech tree Publishing 2010 41 Science and Public policy, 37 (1 february 2010, pages 41 50 DOI: 10.3152/030234210x490778; http://www. ingentaconnect. com/content/beech/spp Future technology analysis for biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Nares Damrongchai, Ponpiboon Satangput, Greg Tegart and Chatri Sripaipan This paper presents a future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) project on the control and management of emerging infectious diseases (EID) in the Asia-pacific Economic cooperation region. It combines several FTA METHODS. Technologies that are potentially effective in biosecurity and in combating EID were identified first by bibliometric analysis, online survey and scenario planning. Roadmaps of these technologies were built then. Workshops to conduct the foresight process were held in the region. Four scenarios and six technology roadmaps for the region were developed. The results show that many future technologies will converge to become most effective in dealing with biosecurity and EID. This paper deals with cross-disciplinary technologies in the context of a cross-boundary regional setting, which has important methodological implications. IOSECURITY INVOLVES THE POLICIES and measures taken to protect from biological harm. It encompasses the prevention and mitigation from diseases in humans and animals, and bioterrorism that impacts the economy, environment, and public health. More technically, dealing with biosecurity can be considered in terms of informatiio generation and collection, information managemment information analysis, and the use of such analysis. Each of these covers a number of discipliine and requires the application of different technoloogies Furthermore, biosecurity, and security in general, is also typically related to critical infrastructuure particularly in the area of public health. Compromising biosecurity can have a far-reaching impact on many other social infrastructures and many aspects of human activities, population structurres or even the survival of humankind (in the event of a global pandemic. One major threat to biosecurity is the outbreak of infectious diseases. Infectious diseases account for a quarter of all human mortality but developing countries have a disproportionate share because of poverty, limited access to health care, drug resistaanc and changing food supplies due to the impact of climate change on land and water supplies. Emerging infectious diseases While severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and avian influenza have attracted major attention in receen years, there have been other emerging infectious diseases (EID) which also present threats to humans and animals. More new diseases have emerged in the past 20 years than in the previous 50 years with the majority of these originating in wildlife. Further old diseases such as dengue and foot-and-mouth have reemeerge to cause costly epidemics. Eight categories of infectious diseases have been identified as potential threats (World health organization, 2006. These are: B Nares Damrongchai is at the APEC Center for Technology foresight, National science Technology and Innovation policy Office, 73/1 Rama 6 Road, Rajdhevee, Bangkok 10400, Thailaand Email: nares@sti. or. th; Tel:++66 2 6448150; Ponpiboon Satangput was at APEC Center for Technology foresight. He is now at the Government Information technology Services, National science and Technology development Agency, 17th Floor, Bangkok Thai Tower Building, 108 Rangnam Rd, Phayatthai Ratchatewi, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; Greg Tegart is at 48 Bentham Street, Yarralumla, ACT 2600, Australia; Email: gregtegart1@ozemail. com. au; Chatri Sripaipan is at the Natioona Science and Technology development Agency, 73/1 Rama 6 Road, Rajdhevee, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; Email: chatri@nstda. or. th; Tel:++66 2 6448150. See Acknowledgements on page 50. Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 42 new diseases such as SARS and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) with variants such as H5n1; infections becoming resistant to treatment (e g. tuberculosis and staphylococcus aureus; zoonoses: i e. infections transferring to humans from animals, these include: SARS, avian influennza plague etc.;HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria; epidemics due to plant diseases; acute respiratory infections; sexually transmitted diseases; and animal diseases. These categories are not mutually exclusive but illusttrat the wide range of threats. The world health sector continues to seek new technologies and approaches which are needed to combat these threats, to reduce costs of treatment and to improve the human and animal health situation in both developed and developing countries. For examplle recognition of the role of information technology (IT) provides a powerful driver of change in approaache to biosecurity when linked to genetics, biotechnnology nanotechnology and bioinformatics. Cross-disciplinary and‘converging'technologies Recently the concept of cross-disciplinarity, that furthhe develops into‘converging technologies'has emerged in the US and in Europe. It emphasizes producctiv interactions between previously separate fields of research and technological development. Such shifts can result in new technological possibilitiies with potentially revolutionary impacts associated with changing innovation patterns, industry structurres and broader developments in society. It has been proposed that a new paradigm is develoopin in the 21st century based on the combinatiio of nanotechnology, biotechnology, IT and cognitive sciences (NBIC) and that these converging technologies could radically change society, econoom and culture in the next 20 years. Areas suggested include: societal productivity; security from natural and man-made disasters; providing sustenance for an ageing population; combating environmental degradation; promoting sustainable development; and creating capabilities for managing international crises. In the US the term‘converging technologies'was used first at a 2001 workshop organized by the US National science Foundation and the US Departmeen of Commerce entitled‘Converging Technologiie for Improving Human Performance'.'This workshop proposed the concept of NBIC and discussse possible applications to human health and performance. Several conferences on specific applicattion have since been held in the US (Roco and Bainbridge, 2002). In Europe the concept of NBIC was studied by A high-Level Expert Group which produced a report (Nordmann, 2004) directed to the application of converging technologies to development of a Europeea knowledge society. This report contains the pragmatic definition: Converging technologies are enabling technoloogie and knowledge systems that enable each other in pursuit of a common goal Nares Damrongchai obtained his MPHIL degree from the University of Cambridge, UK and a doctorate in engineering from Tokyo Institute of technology. He took part in developiin the roadmap for Thailand's first biotechnology policy framework. He is currently the executive director of the APEC Center for Technology foresight and the director of Policy Research and Management at the National science Technology and Innovation policy Office, Bangkok, Thailaand His work includes foresight research, training, and consulting internationally. His recent research interests incluude converging technologies to combat emerging infectiiou diseases and climate change. Ponpiboon Satangput graduated from the University of Cambridge in 2001 and obtained a Phd in medical physiic from the same university in 2005. From 2006 2009 he was a policy researcher at the APEC Center for Technollog Foresight, Bangkok, Thailand. His research interests include: medical imaging, decision-making techniques, future knowledge management systems, and project management. Greg Tegart has had a long and varied career. After graduattin in Australia he was an academic in the UK and the US for a number of years followed by administration of industrria research and of government science and technology (S&t) in Australia. He retired from the service of the Australiia government in 1993 and has held academic posts in Canberra and Melbourne in the S&t policy area since then. A major activity has been his association with the APEC Center for Technology foresight since its inception in 1998. He has completed recently his term as chairman of its internatiiona advisory board. Chatri Sripaipan started his career teaching electronics at Chulalongkorn University, Thailand From 1980, his interest diversified into industrial policy and S&t policy. He was the first director of Chula Unisearch, a business-oriented commerciallizatio unit of Chulalongkorn University and the direccto of the S&t development Program at Thailand Development Research institute. In 1997, he joined the Natioona Science and Technology development Agency (NSTDA) of Thailand as co-director of the APEC Center for Technology foresight, and acting director of the Science, Technology and Innovation policy Research Division and retired as the vice-president for policy. He is currently a seniio advisor to the president of NSTDA. Converging technologies are enabling technologies and knowledge systems that enable each other in pursuit of a common goal Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 43 The concept has been extended in the European union's Seventh Framework Program to the possibiliitie at the interface of micro nano systems and the living world. Figure 1 illustrates how nanosysteems biosystems and IT can interact in biomedical biosecurity applications. In the present study we have applied the concept of converging technologiies particularly the pragmatic European definition, to combating EID. The study has highlighted the importance of interdisciplinary approaches that cross traditional intellectual boundaries when dealing with EID. The result of this‘converging'approach is to be shown in this paper in the context of the crossbounndar Asia-pacific regional setting. This double cross-border dimension is crucial to this paper and will have important methodological implications that eventually bring about a clearer identification of‘technology roadmaps'.'The technology roadmapping method has been used in the present authors'previous region-wide studies (APEC CTF, 2006. The new challenge in the present study is the roadmapping of converging technologies within the diversity of the Asia-pacific region. Scope and main insights Better understanding of patterns of infectious diseaase needs input from anthropology, economics and climatology supported by statistics and mathematics. The mechanisms of animal human transmission need input from medicine and veterinary medicine coupled to virology, bacteriology, mycology and parasitology. Vaccine development and delivery can be speeded up using genetics, nanotechnology, moleccula biology and bioinformatics. Moreover, health systems research using social sciences, epidemioloog and anthropology is needed to understand how new technologies can be used most effectively from the viewpoints of the needs, expectations, capabilitiies and cultural sensitivities of the end users. This paper describes the conduct of this regional foresight project using a combination of foresight methods. Within the scope of existing and new technollog development to combat EID, the study proviide evidence of how the FTA can address societal issues and challenges, and have impacts on decisionmakkin and actions in the private and public sectors through cooperation over a wide geographical area, specifically the Asia-pacific region in the next decaad and beyond. The key insights include: the mappiin between key technologies that should converge in each stage of the EID life cycle, and the roadmaps to develop those technologies that respond to user requirements. Methodology Conduct of the project: overview The project was organized into two phases. Phase I was designed to identify the potential issues related to EID. Those issues included: the trends of potential infectious diseases, the timing of the emergence of those diseases, the level of severity of the impacts from the spread of those infectious diseases to communiitie etc. Phase II was designed to take the findinng from Phase I to determine the possible preparation for the future research and development (R&d) needed to manage, prevent, or combat EID. To complete the objective in Phase I, a combinatiio of literature review/bibliometric analysis and online surveys were conducted to preliminarily captuur the trends of infectious diseases. The publicatiio trends were analyzed by using the medical databases of MEDLINE to present the potential trends of EID. Then, an online survey using the netwoor of experts in APEC was launched to involve international experts in reviewing the identified trends of EID. When the survey had been completed, a face-to-face workshop for scenario planning was organized. Nano Bio Info Nanobiosystem (e g.,, nanostructured drugs) Nano-Informatics (e g.,, NEMS, Nanoelectronics) Bioinformatics (e g.,, Genomic Analysis, Biomedical Imaging) Bio-Info-Nano Converging Tech. e g.,, NEMS based Biochip) Figure 1. Examples of converging technologies, APEC Center for Technology foresight (www. apecforesight. org) 2006 Source: Phucharoenchanachai (2005) Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 44 In Phase II, the objective was to determine directiion for future R&d so that APEC member economiie can ready themselves to respond to the region's needs. To achieve this objective, the technology roadmapping technique was applied to analyze the linkage between the development of supporting technologies and the future changes in medical requireement in each research domain as identified in Phase I. At the end of Phase II, a final symposium was arrannge in Bangkok in December 2007. Approximattel 60 experts from over ten APEC economies who covered many disciplines and sectors, discussed the preliminary result of the project and shared a longer term perspective to enhance the region's capaciitie to contribute to the successful prevention and management of EID. Information flow through the two phases of the project is shown in Figure 2. Scenarios We used scenarios in attempts to develop internally consistent stories about possible futures (Tegart and Johnston, 2005) where EID become a threat in the Asia-pacific region over the next decade and beyoond Thirty three experts from seven economies met in Thailand in February 2007 to develop scenarios for the future of EID in the Asia-pacific region. After keynote speeches given by speakers from Rand IBM, Oracle, and the Australian Biosecurity Cooperaativ Research centre, the experts were organised into smaller groups. The groups identified key driveer of future change relevant to the study, and the uncertainties influencing these drivers were considerred Self-consistent scenarios were constructed then for an agreed time in the future. Based on the scenariio derived in each group, participants were asked to identify potential technology applications that could be used to prevent or reduce the impact of the crisis as described in each scenario. Technology roadmapping The structure of the roadmaps used in this study was designed by adapting from the generic format of a product/technology roadmap (Phaal et al. 2004). ) The basic elements of a generic roadmap representiin market, products, technology, R&d programs, and resources, were changed into the elements listed below: medical requirements and users requirements; development of technologies supporting the requirements; key technical and policy challenges that could Aim to exchange experts'views about the severity of infectious diseases and the key research domains Aim to get experts involved in verifying the trends of emerging infectiiou diseases resulted from bibliometric analysis Aim to capture the trends of emerging infectious diseases from the publication trends Phase I Scenario planning Online survey Literature review+Bibliometric Analysis Aim to discuss longer term perspective to enhance the region's capacities that contribute to the successful prevention and management of EID Aim to develop roadmaps of technology applications that have high impact to combat EID Aim to develop roadmaps of technology research domain and identify key technology applications to combat EID Phase II Final Symposium Roadmapping II Roadmapping I Figure 2 Information flow through the project Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 45 possibly hinder the progress of technology developmment and R&d programs/activities required in delivering the desired technologies. The time frame of the roadmaps was divided into three periods: short term (2007 2012), medium term (2012 2017), and long term (beyond 2017). The structure of the roadmaps used in this study is shown in Figure 3. Two roadmapping workshops were organized in Tokyo in Japan on 22 24 may (42 experts from nine economies) 2007 and in Taipei, Chinese Taipei on 24 26 october 2007 (41 experts from eight economies. Experts discussed the future changes in medical requirements in each research domain, the types of supporting technologies needed, the key challenges that could possibly hinder the developmeen progress, and R&d activities. Results and policy impact/implications Scenarios and EID life cycle model The scenario workshop listed key drivers for EID in the areas of social, technology, economics, environmeent and politics (STEEP. It also identified key uncertainties such as massive natural disasters, manmaad global security issues, and unpredicted breakthrroug technologies. These resulted in the followiin four distinctive scenarios: Scenario 1: Malaria in Miami 2017. In February 2015, a family arrives in Miami, Florida from tropical Latin america. A little girl was infected with an unknown strain of malaria. She had been bitten by carrier mosquitoes. There is no experience or history of treating this disease in Miami so disease spreads. Some deaths occur. No treatment is available and social unrest begins. Scenario 2: 20,000 people now confirmed dead from mystery disease. Recently, 20,000 people in Bangkok have been reported dead from a mystery disease and more than 50,000 are sick. Two weeks ago a large number of birds were found dead throughout the city. The resulting chaos has been the worst in the history of Thailand. Hospitaal are overwhelmed with people claiming to be sick. The economic consequences are severe with businesses unable to operate. Tourism has plummeete and retailers are facing bankruptcy. Scenario 3: Mysterious death Mysterious deaths were occurring in almost every economy around the world. 5000 people were reported to have been infected by the virus. The death rate was low because the disease is thermo-sensitive and only becomes virulent in a hot climate. A range of technologies was put to use to stop the virus. One year later, scientists revealed that the disease was now under control and a vaccine was widely available to prevent its spread. Scenario 4: Emerging rainforest syndrome. An epidemic, of unknown cause, occurred in ten countries. After tracing back for two years, it was found that it was an unknown illness showing coldliik symptoms followed by flu-like symptoms and severe gastrointestinal distress, leading to death in 20%of the afflicted patients within two weeks. Those who survived the initial outbreak have since been transmitting the disease to others. The scenario discussions revealed an EID life cycle model (see Figure 4), with four stages from preventiiv measures to surveillance and detection to treatmeen and prevention of spread. The model Was developed in Roadmapping I Developed in Roadmapping II Figure 3. Structure of technology roadmaps Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 46 proposed at the workshop by Dr Richard Silberglitt, a participant from Rand Corporation, USA (Phaal et al. 2004). ) According to the model, technological approaches can be used to combat EIDS at every stage of their life cycle, from preventive measures such as vacciine to biosensors for surveillance, bioassays for detection, drugs for treatment, and filters, membraanes and fabric coatings for prevention of spread. A key area of interest for the project is how technoloogie can converge to contribute to the overall capabilities for more effective applications in biosecurrit and EID management in the four designated life cycle domains. Examples include: Preventive measures (PM), which is the stage befoor the emergence of EID. This covers technologgica approaches such as use of mosquito nets and insecticides in the case of malaria. Future measures could include a preventive vaccine and new approaches to control the vector. Surveillance and detection (S&d) is the stage aftte the emergence of EID. Current S&d includes diagnostic testing and monitoring of cases by persoonplace/time characteristics. Future diagnostic or communication technologies could potentially improve upon the likelihood and timing of diagnoosi and reporting. Treatment (Tr. Current treatment options include drugs such as artemisinin-based combination therapies. Future drugs could potentially be even more effective and cheaper. Prevention of spread (Pos. Pos include proceduure to limit the transmission of the parasite, for example using animal tracking/monitoring. Future decisions regarding interventions should use all available information about the disease and possiibl interventions, together with current data from sensors and assays, health clinics, hospitals, and other sources, to estimate the severity of disease effeect if no action were to be taken, the time window for effective intervention, and the efficacy of possibbl interventions. Since the scenario workshop, this EID life cycle model has been employed throughout the project as the structure for discussions in the technology roadmapppin workshops in both Japan and Chinese Taipei and the final symposium in Bangkok. Technology roadmaps Using inputs from the scenarios and the EID life cyclle experts at the following first technology roadmapppin workshop have identified key domains of technology research, namely ubiquitous computing, treatments, and diagnostics, as having a high impact on combating EID and achieving biosecurity. Resuult were analyzed and presented as shown in the following tables. The key user requirements were identified for the three technology research domains. Table 1 shows one example: the key user requiremeent for diagnostics domain. Recommendations for this research domain are shown in Table 2. The second roadmapping workshop was organizze in order to further develop the roadmaps and Preventive measures (PM) Surveillance and detection (S&d) Treatment (Tr) Prevention of spread (Pos) Figure 4. EID life cycle model Source: Adapted from presentation by Dr Silberglitt (Rand Corporation, 2007) Table 1. Key user requirements in diagnostics Short term Medium term Long term Accuracy, no need to refrigerate Long shelf life Rapid test Gives result rapidly Easy to use in the field Small sample consumption Reliability Individual Information for decision at national level Sharing intellectual property and experience Individual No physical burden Test without pain EID education Fast, no repetition Cost: cheap No physical burden Cost: cheap No physical burden Continuous microbial monitoring system Table 2. Short term Medium term Long term Improving database of genome, proteome of causative microbe Need to have international/dome stic system for sample delivery Research on personal diagnostic devices Need to solve problem of benefit sharing Research on field diagnostic devices New light source for internal body scan Visualization of pathogens Method to detect infected cells Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 47 find more technology applications. The additional technology applications identified were: modelling, vaccines and animal tracking. The discussions at the workshop revealed their inter-relationships both with one another and with the three domains of technoloog research identified earlier. The role of technoloog convergence as the key to success in developing the technologies was confirmed further. All the technology research and application domaain identified in the roadmapping workshops fit with the life cycle model (see Figure 5). In keeping with the theme of converging technologies, there are links between all of the technology domains as shown earlier in Figure 4. To better illustrate the specific roles that technoloogie can contribute in combating EIDS and achieving biosecurity, this paper gives an example of a diagnostic technologies roadmap (Table 3) as one among the six technology roadmaps developed in the study. Table 3 shows the landscape of diagnosstic technology application as seen from both the user's and the technology developer's point of view. Challenges and necessary collaborations are shown also with respect to the short-,medium, -and longteer time horizons. Diagnosis of infectious diseases is done usually by detecting causative agents (virus, bacterium, etc. and/or antipathogen antibodies. The former includes antigen detection, genetic, and cultivation methods. Diagnosis plays a critical role in the treatment of disease and in developing response strategies. In an outbreak situation, vaccination may need to be accomppanie by a diagnostic test that can discriminate between the response to a vaccine and a natural infecttion Appropriate diagnostic technologies are also critical for surveillance programs. In some cases diagnoosti technology also plays a crucial role in the prevention of spread. Policy implications With strong user inputs in scientific and managemeen issues, the foresight project appears to have high potential to inspire and influence decisionmakkin regarding EID and biosecurity throughout the Asia-pacific region. Such a continuity of effort to disseminate the outputs of the project and inspire other activities during the later stages of the project and after its termination is called usually‘postforeesigh engagement activities'.'During this project many fruitful discussions took place, suggesting potential activities that could have a high impact in efforts to combat EID. The project was announced concluded in late 2008 and the full report (APEC CTF, 2008) with policy recommendatiio was presented at the 34th APEC Industrial Sciennc and Technology Working group Meeting held in March 2009 in Mexico. Elsewhere the report was disseminated throughout the Asia-pacific region and also to non-APEC members such as the UK who also participated in the project. Even before the projecct'conclusion a number of activities related to the foresight project had been initiated that also raised the awareness in biosecurity throughout the region. These included: The Rand Corporation, who participated in the key events of the project, has proposed a decision model to identify and evaluate an optimum mix of interventions and measures for a specific disease, such as improvements in health infrastructure, which can concurrently benefit more than just a single disease. The model will take into account the existing situation on the ground, evidencebaase metrics of coverage and efficacy, financial requirements, and the intended time horizon. The proposal is being considered by the Rockefeller Foundation for funding, with potential involvemeen of the APEC Center for Technology Foresiigh and its partnering scientists. It is hoped that eventually the outcome of this project will assist developing APEC member economies in order to optimize the research budget and set policy directiion in an effective manner. A discussion which developed mainly in the diagnoosi roadmap suggested that a new network Preventive measures (PM) Surveillance and detection (S&d) Treatment (Tr) Prevention of spread (Pos) Vaccine Animal tracking Diagnostic Ubiquitous computing Vaccine Drugs Modeling Figure 5. Contribution of technologies to combating EIDS Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 48 Table 3. Roadmap for development of EID diagnostics 2007 2012 2013 2017 Beyond 2017 Validated, easy to use in the field or local site, low cost, suitable for developed and developing countries, no cold chain required Higher sensitivity and specificity Simultaneous, low opportunity cost testing for many infectious agents Ability to test large numbers of people in a noninterventionist manner Broad screening tools Improved border biosecurity Personalized medicine with testing linked to information networks and personalized treatment High throughput technologies Rapid pathogen genetic characterization, high level of biosecurity Users'requirement Access to latest technologies Automated data collection and analysis Technology Lateral flow and other point of care devices, low cost Low cost tests of greater sensitivity, gene amplification Screening technologies for airports, thermal, chemical Chemical sensing Rapid high throughput systems, high polymerase chain reaction capacity High throughput genetic sequencing Multiplex testing Access to latest and developing diagnostic technologies High-level investigative capacity and capability Local site Regional health centers International institutions Validation processes established Information collection and sharing system from the local diagnostic systems through to the international institutions Personal diagnostic devices, implantable or wearable biosennso-transmitter Sensing systems of adequate sensitivity Low cost, point of care amplification systems Effective networks to collect, manage and analyse data National laboratory hierarchy accepted Acceptance of information collection processes Privacy concerns addressed Use of point of care and personal diagnostic technologies in the community without adverse implications Education and communication to public (so that public understands the significance of EID control) Challenges: technical, social, economic and political Ownership and sharing of biological material Long-term budget system for EID technology development and deployment, APEC‘Centers of Excellence'APEC collaboration projects Validation standards developed Laboratory hierarchy strategy developed National (and international) information sharing systems developed BSL3-4 capability developed*Note:**BSL3-4 capability developed. A biosafety level (BSL) is the level of containment precautions required to isolate dangerous biological agents in an enclosed facility, level 4 is highest level system could be based on a fully scientific base, and this should be established as a research and diagnosis center for infectious diseases among APEC economies. This proposed center could be used as a hub of the network, with samplles information and human resources shared by Asian countries. Currently, RIKEN, the leading governmental research institute in Japan, is developpin laboratories in collaboration with Thailand, Vietnam, China, Indonesia India, the Philippines, Zambia and Ghana. Subsequently, Dr Okamoto from RIKEN, who was a key contributor to the foresight project, also addressed the possibility of using one of the RIKEN research bases as an Towards low cost, high sensitivity and specificity, rapid, multi-agent diagnostic devices linked to automated data collection and analysis Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 49 APEC diagnosis center, combining with establishhmen of a new network system to utilize other research sites effectively for the benefit of the APEC. In order to make significant progress in combating EID considerable sharing of samples, people and information will be required. Therefoore this initiative could provide a great benefit among APEC member economies as it would estabblis strong partnerships within APEC and could also enable African research organizations and researchers to study or analyze local samples collaboratively. It was stressed in the meetings/workshops of the project that in order to make the best use of the foresight roadmaps, the results should be disseminaate to a broad range of (and certainly to those in positions of authority) stakeholders. In Thailand, Ram Rangsin, a Thai medical expert, has been conducting a project on developing policy recommenddation of the EID surveillance system for the Thai government. The findings from this APEC-wide project were shared and information was provided to this surveillance project especiaall with respect to the technological trends and policy recommendations of technologies in ubiquittou computing, modeling, and disease tracking. Rangsin's project was concluded in February 2009 and has provided policy recommendations to the Thai government (Rangsin, 2009). Conclusion Bibliometric analysis and scenarios have been used to study the factors involved in initiation and spread of EID within the framework of the EID life cycle model. These are preventive measures, S&d, Tr and Pos, and to guide the future development of respoonse in controlling these factors. The life cycle model can be linked to six significaan technology domains: vaccines, diagnostics, ubiquitous computing, tracking, modeling and drugs. Each of these provides opportunities for technologiie to converge and make significant contributions to R&d and commercialization of devices and systeems Yet the convergence of technologies will not come in the same form as the convergence in informattio and communications technologies, but rather different technologies will play different roles and interact in a particular value chain, as shown by the technology roadmaps through the mapping of technollog applications with the EID life cycle. Technology roadmaps have been developed for each of these domains to provide the basis for natioona and regional strategies for biosecurity and combating EID. The significant findings for each of the roadmaps from the point of view of convergennce are: Vaccines: vaccine development, production and delivery are essential components of any strategy to combat EID and must be supported strongly. New approaches based on genetic manipulation and molecular design will allow more rapid develoopmen of vaccines. Diagnostics: a range of tools to enhance capabiliit in these areas needs to be developed specificaall for the Asia-pacific region, particularly focused on low cost, portability and rapid informattio flow. Ubiquitous computing: the concept of smarter informmatio collection and management is an integrra part of adoption of new processes and tools. Increased effort is needed to improve the automaate analysis of surveillance data to enable early detection of outbreaks. IT is an integral part of developments in all the domains. Modeling: the availability of realistic models can assist policy-makers in developing options for coping with outbreaks but they cannot be used in real time when input data are changing rapidly. Tracking: miniaturized systems are being developpe to track both animals and humans but standaard and protocols are needed to enable tracking across national boundaries. Drugs: more effort is needed on the development of therapeutic drugs for more effective risk managemment even for those infectious diseases for which vaccines are available. The specific combination of methods (bibliometric analysis, online survey, scenario, and technology roadmapping) bears interesting potential and advannce important methodological issues in FTA. Bibliometric analysis and online survey complement each other in providing insights which provided scope and focus to the study. The scope and focus were developed further into the context of the future by scenario planning, in which the different technoloogie have roles in enhancing biosecurity and preparedness for EID. With a clearer context of: where and how different technologies are required by users, what are the necessary R&d issues, the key success factors and the barriers, then the landsccap of each technology application domain emerged. To this, the final stage (technology roadmappping added the details of a proposed‘working plan'that are suitable in different time frames so that decision-makers in each member economy of the APEC could invest in their R&d programs and use to decide on the frameworks of their respective internaationa collaboration strategies. Hence, the unique contribution of this paper lies in its dealing with cross-disciplinary technologies (converging technologies) in a cross-boundary regioona setting (Asia-pacific. The combination of methodologies used here to overcome obstacles in the double cross-bordering dimension, where the context of technology applications in a multilateral R&d agenda is usually not fully explored. The progrres described in this paper has important methodologgica implications and brings about a clearer Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 50 identification of‘technology roadmaps'that are to be applied to a wider geographical area and more diverse level of technology capacity and socioeconommi development. It is believed that this kind of comprehensive FTA will increasingly be needed as the nature of the new challenges to humankind are increasingly borderless while technologies are moviin faster towards convergence. The implication of this project is that it has creatte a new network of knowledgeable and concerned scientists and technologists in the field of biosecurity in the Asia-pacific region. This can provide a focus for further cooperation. The APEC structure may provide a route to developing this cooperation by sharing of information, facilities and training in combating EID across the region. The translation of research outputs into policy is of critical importance. Politicians have to make decission on the basis of available information, which is often imperfect, and hence the prompt and efficiien transfer of information from the research enviroonmen into the policy environment is a critical component of effectively combating EID. Particulaarl in the APEC region security and EID is given high priority, as was evident in the APEC leaders'declaration (APEC, 2006). However, the applicatiio of these new technologies in developing economies needs to be undertaken with great care, recognizing that there are major infrastructural, cultuura and social differences. The‘people factors'are crucial features of disease management through all phases of the life cycle model from detection to response. Funding for R&d, considering the EID life cycle, has to be balanced, while networking and technology transfer in certain areas are a viable option. This project is a contribution to the better understanndin of the provision of accelerated technologicca responses to combating EID and biosecurity in the APEC region and of the role of S&t in providiin those responses through the concept of convergiin technologies. It is only a beginning and there is a need for further action by individual economies and by APEC itself as a coordinating body to ensure that the region is prepared adequately for the outbreaks of EID that will inevitably occur in the future. Acknowledgments The authors would like to acknowledge and extend their heartfelt gratitude to all participants at the workshops and symposiums held under this research project. Special thanks are due to Dr Yoshhik Okamoto (RIKEN, Japan) and Dr Stephen Prowse who contribbute in the Diagnostic Technology roadmap. The authors are also grateful to Mr Jack Smith (Defence R&d Canada) and Dr Richard Silberglitt (Rand Corporation) who have given ideas and made suggestions throughout the project. This project was funded by the Asia-pacific Economic Cooperaatio (APEC) and the National science and Technology Developmmen Agency Ministry of Science and Technology, Royal Thai government. References APEC Center for Technology foresight 2006. Future Fuel Technollogy Summary Report of an APEC-wide Foresight study. Bangkok: APEC Center for Technology foresight. APEC Center for Technology foresight, 2008. Roadmapping Converging technologies to Combat Emerging Infectious Diseasses Bangkok: APEC Center for Technology foresight. APEC Leaders'Declaration, APEC, 2006. 14th APEC Economic Leaders'Meeting, Ha Noi Declaration, Ha Noi, Viet nam, 18 19 november 2006. Available at<http://www. apec. org/apec/leaders declarations/2006. html>,last accessed 20 february 2010. Nordmann, Alfred 2004. Converging technologies: Shaping the Future of European Societies. Report by High-level Expert Group on‘Foresighting the New technology Wave'.'Brussels: European Commison. Phaal, R c J P Farrukh and D R Probert 2004. Technology Roadmappping a planning framework for evolution and revolution. Technological forecasting & Social Change, 71 (1 2), 5 26. Phucharoenchanachai, Suthee 2005. EID Concept Paper. Paper presented at the 29th Meeting of APEC Industrial Science & Technology Working group (ISTWG), Singapore. Rand Corporation 2007. Suggestions from a 2020 Technology foresight: Technological Approaches to Combating Emerging Infectious diseases (EIDS. Paper presented at the APEC Scenario Workshop on Converging technologies to combat EIDS, held at Khao Lak, Thailand. Rangsin, R, 2009. Policy Recommendation Paper of Surveillance system for Emerging Infectious diseases in Thailand. Bangkok: National Center for Genetic engineering and Biotechnology. Roco, M C and W s Bainbridge, 2002. Converging technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnollogy Information technology and Cognitive science. Arlingtoon VA: National science Foundation. Tegart, G and R Johnston 2004. Some advances in the practice of foresight. Paper presented at EU US Seminar: New Technollog Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. World health organization 2006. Assessing vaccine-preventable diseases burden and immunization impact. Available at<http://www. who. int/immunization monitoring/burden/en/>,last accessse August 2008

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