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and moulding expert opinions into good conclusions remains an elusive goal. 4. Tales from the frontier The contributions to this session had a fairly common theme in that they focussed on the establishment of databases and the associated data collection,
and technology publication and patent abstract databases to better inform technology management. This paper describes, through a case study on solid oxide fuel cells, the value of quick text mining profiles of emerging technologies.
instant database access, analytical software, automated routines, and decision process standardization. The paper discusses the importance of process management for dtech miningt,
The analysis of regulatory foresight in the narrow sense is based, first, on a broad survey of literature databases and the internet regarding regulatory impact assessments in general,
& Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 related patent applications and in literature databases for articles addressing the various risk aspects.
Science and technology indicators are easily available in publicly provided or commercially distributed databases. However, the methodological challenge is to meet the adequate level of specification and differentiation of the technology indicators,
However, the databases provide further information about 512 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 regulation-relevant contents, like health,
Swanson explored knowledge discovery by exploring database links 10. Swanson demonstrates integrative capability by demonstrating new links between technologies, inherent in the data,
the Internet, science and technology databases, patent databases, newswires, and potentially also newsgroups or other online collaborative environments.
This knowledge is stored in databases of science and technology. New future-oriented technology analysis techniques, such as the approach suggested here,
Such organizations, not surprisingly, need access to these distributed databases of knowledge. Unlike conventional, disciplinary researchers, these organizations do need not necessarily the database to gain access to individual pieces of information
(whether it this be press releases, patents, or research articles). Rather, the participating organizations use the database as a coordination mechanism,
enabling them to rapidly respond to the research and development efforts of their peers. Thus, they also require analytic support to gather, structure,
The alternative approach would be to expressly encode the configuration within the database of science and technology.
as well as presaging a significant reorganization of the science and technology database to better match technological progress.
Use of alternative databases, such as patenting data, would be an interesting item for extending the method.
He has worked as a data miner for large database companies, developed patents in the fields of pricing and promotion algorithms, been a research fellow at the Technology policy Assessment Center of Georgia Tech,
JRC (2002) and compilation by OECD. Area/name of composite indicator Economy Composite of Leading indicators (OECD) OECD International Regulation Database (OECD) Economic Freedom of the World
research in databases and the internet. This search was combined with a bibliometric approach. Literature was analysed.
internally assessed and reassessed several times via an internal database and scientific papers. As an input to the first workshop in November 2007, a first set of scientific papers describing the developments in the fields were written
Basis of the choice of participants were public databases and the results from bibliometrics. A reminder was sent at the end of September 2008
relatively simple charts (mainly in percent) had to be used in order not to over-interpret the database.
the resulting database of aggregate opinion ought to be open to wide access without infringing or diminishing civil and personal liberty. 3. Measurement of an improvement in participation in Foresight should be simple
and technology publication and patent abstract databases to better inform technology management. To do so requires developing templates of innovation indicators to answer standard questions.
Knowledge discovery in databases 1. Introduction How long does it take to provide a particular Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA?
1) instant database access, 2) analytical software, 3) automated routines, and 4) decision process standardization. The first QTIP factor concerns information availability.
Of particular note to FTA, the great science and technology (S&t) databases cover a significant portion of the world's research output.
These databases can be searched from one's computer, enabling retrieval of electronic records in seconds.
Many organizations have unlimited use licenses to particular databases that allow for thousands of records to be located
Various databases compile information on journal and conference papers patents, R&d projects, and so forth. In addition, many researchers share information via the Internet (e g.,
Other databases cover policy, popular press, and business activities. These can be exploited to help understand contextual factors affecting particular technological innovations.
We next need to align the other three factors to enable QTIP-database access, analytical tools,
Factor 1 is binstant database accessq. That is, access to the requisite information resources should be direct and seamless.
They can negotiate fair licenses that enable desktop access to the most useful and affordable databases.
explaining database nuances, and by reviewing critical searches to suggest refinements. We suggest that information professionals consider expanding their skill sets to become expert on analytical tools
3 Organizations access such databases various ways. For instance, Georgia Tech previously hosted key databases on its own server for access by students, staff, and faculty.
Presently it accesses some databases via a statewiid consortium called Galileo, others directly using passwords through their internet sites,
and some using CD-ROMS. At times the Technology policy and Assessment Center at Georgia Tech has accessed such sources through a gateway service,
Dialog. 3 We accessed data via Dialog, a leading gateway to over 400 different databases.
In general, we find that the databases provide much richer S&t information resources with a measure of quality control.
In general, we prefer to first exploit the R&d databases, then update and probe using the internet.
, in coordinating licenses and access to databases and analytical tools! technology analysts (e g.,, power users of these capabilities on a regular basis!
, occasional users of the databases and analytical tools! decision-makers (e g.,, policy-makers and managers who weigh emerging technology considerations as either their main focus or as contributing factors,
business) databases. As such it represents one advanced form of technology monitoring. This information can serve other FTA needs to various degrees:!
which databases contain the most SOFC information. I select two that provide good coverage and are licensed for unlimited use by Georgia Tech.!
An auxiliary search is run on a U s. Department of energy R&d projects database for these four universities.
Provide each researcher, development engineer, project manager, intellectual property analyst, etc. with direct, desktop access to a couple of most useful S&t information databases.!
Negotiate unlimited use licenses for those databases.!License easy-to-use analytical software for all.!Script the routine analytical processes.!
the database administrator closes off submissions for the month and directs the continuing stream of abstracts into a new set for the next month.
Fig. 1 summarises the results of an analysis of 50 foresight exercises described in the European foresight monitoring Network (EFMN) database. 1 These exercises listed a total of 199 objectives
what is at stake is ways of handlinghard facts'',through, for example, websites, databases, publications, dissemination procedures, etc.
and stored in databases for rapid access) and those emphasising personalization (centred on direct person-to-person contacts IT systems are used here to help communication and location of key informants).
Fig. 1 shows the growing attention in journals for a certain topic and indicates that the term dnanotubest was used increasingly in the titles of scientific articles (extracted from the Picarta database.
or knowledge databases such as Wikipedia) to construct a model of society capable of simulating what the future holds for us.
while the outcome will persist for very much longer Data mining of very large (and open) databases including blogs;
(and sometimes less than conventional) databases arising from academia; business government and elsewhere, is already possible but limited by human and search engine factors.
the known unknown category having been banished by algorithmic searches through immense unstructured but interconnected sets of databases.
The promised future situation contains sequencing of genes, characterisation of proteins, databases, dynamic models and so on.
and combined in a database.!Latent semantic analysis (LSA) 2, 3 was used on the titles
The same textual records and database described for the landscape maps above were used here.!A rule-based unstructured text tagging module was used on titles
Once a set of multi-database, emerging technology search results has been obtained, we devise a means to help extract intelligence on key technology components and functions, major stakeholders,
We treat DSSC abstract records through 2010 based on searches in four databases. We employ a set of multi-database NEST search results,
sharing progress on our efforts to devise algorithms to help extract key technology components, significant actors, and potential applications.*
With the expansion of databases that compile abstract records and of desktop computing power, text mining of these records further enriches the empirical base.
We search for R&d activity in suitableST&I'databases and profile that activity and the associated actors from these data (Steps C and D). Many analytical tools can serve to profile R&d,
Boolean term search approach (Porter et al. 2007) to identify DSSCRELLATE activity in four databases: Web of Science (WOS), EI Compendex, Derwent World Patent Index (DWPI), and Factiva.
We added exclusion terms for the publication databases. We tested the performance of the search modules.
We created search algoritthm somewhat tailored for each of the four databases (details in Appendix 1). Data-cleaning in Vantagepoint software (Porter et al. 2007) refined the data downloaded from the four databases.
We developed this initial DSSC TDS by mining our database search results for leads on importaan stakeholders
and text mining analyses of the database search results. Tech Mining the various publication and patent abstract records can track the emergence of key terms over time to spotlight new (appearing only in the most recent time period) and hot subtechnoologie (i e. those appearing
We begin by showing trends based on the annual activity from each database in Figure 3. It is clear that the research publications drawn from the SCI
and Compendex databases keep growing and show similar trends. This suggests that fundamental research on DSSC continues to increase essentially exponentially.
After 2008, the Factiva records suddenly climb quicker than the activity in the other databases does.
but has not been mentioned frequently in conjunction with business actions (Factiva database. Dainippon Printing is extremely active in patent families
executed an initial database search, and text mined the database search results. We carried out preliminary searches to identify local expertise to help guide us.
We also contacted Georgia Tech and Emory University colleagues with a background in solar cells. One professor invited us to meet him.
As the result of this foresight exercise a large database of promising S&tareas was created, with integrated scores for all selected criteria.
''Technologies for environmentally safe processing and recycling of consumer and industrial waste''andGeoinformation database of forest fires in Russia, allowing monitoring of fire situations in real time''.
and wastes 3 Geoinformation database of forest fires in Russia, allowing monitoring of fire situations in real time (number of fires
in the FS1 framework a large database of promising S&t areas was created; this allowed policy makers to derive a wide range of an information, for example:
and others A large database of promising S&tareas, estimated by nine criteria by 2, 000 experts.
While some scientific literature databases have been reclassified by using IPC code, this PAGE 70 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 kind of capability gap identification becomes easier.
For example, The Inspec Database, produced by the Institution of Engineering and Technology (IET), contains records from the world's technical
as there are sources of bias in the EFMN database (see Keenan and Popper 26 for a critical assessment of the exercise).
three kinds of dates are included in the DII database: application year, priority year, and basic year.
Author Indicator Robert J Watts, Alan L Porter 14 Number of items in databases such as Science Citation Index number of items in databases such as Engineering
Index number of items in databases such as U s. patents Number of items in databases such as Newspaper Abstracts Daily Issues raised in the Business
since data of the all indicators can be downloaded from most patent databases. Certainly, our study possesses limitations.
complex networks, simulation modeling of CAS and the search of vast databases. Such convergence has conducted to a rejuvenation and growth in FTA METHODS and practice,
At the same time more and more companies look into diverse databases and use crowd sourcing to foster their innovation, to get inspiration and to benchmark creative dynamic in their sectors.
Such understanding may be supported by earlier research and available databases. At the same time, a spectrum of foresight methods can be applied to develop a better understanding of possible future developments of the systems under analysis 7. In this context
patent databases as well as existing research and worldwide roadmaps on manufacturing. The mapping results were brought together with partners'and stakeholders'experience,
dissemination activities Research Partners'databases Formal Online surveys, wiki platform, website, dissemination activities Personal contacts and Internet Informal C. Cagnin,
and create a common corpus for further analysis a joint database was developed on basis of the Sigma Scan of the UK Foresight HSC.
This database was adapted to incorporrat the data from the Danish and Netherlands horiizo scans. Comparison of the scan data The comparison of data was based on the data of the UK HSC Sigma Scan11 and Delta Scan12 as publisshe on the internet
these essays were published then in the Sigma and Delta Scan databases. In The netherlands, papers were drafted after issue clusters had been devellope using creative group thinking exercises.
of 366 proposals from the general Sigma Scan development Activity Engagements Output Scan the scans Categorise data Create the E-database Society
and synthesis Workshop Cross-linkages With policy Themed Scenarios Extranet Peer review Discussion groups Updated database Finalised Themed Scenarios Final database Reports and multimedia Output data analysis phase
Joint database A joint database has been established containing 430 issues of which 159 are from The netherlands horizzo scan, 125 from the Danish scan and 146 from the UK scan.
or link all scan data in one central database that will be used to develop proposals for joint foresiigh on common themes (through EC
The publicatiio trends were analyzed by using the medical databases of MEDLINE to present the potential trends of EID.
cheap No physical burden Continuous microbial monitoring system Table 2. Short term Medium term Long term Improving database of genome, proteome of causative microbe Need to have international/dome
we identified the subsidized firms in the period 2000 2002 from the CTI database. We collected innovation data for the promoted firms similla to those already existing for a sample of innovating firms of The swiss Innovation Survey 2002 (Arvanitis et al.
Database Our information sources were: a list of the firm projects that were subsidized by the CTI in the period 2000 2002;
The CTI database contained information on 634 subsiddize R&d projects that were finished between 1 january 2000 and 31 december 2002.
which a control group was constructed (KOF panel database). For the firms that finished their projects subsidiize by the CTI during the first half of the period 2000 2002,
CTI database, authors'calculations Table 3. Subsidized enterprises by scientific field 2000 2002 Scientific field Number of firms Percentage Construction technology 11 5. 5
CTI database, authors'calculations Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 69 firms which are subsidized not out
and trends in intellecctua property rights (IPR) Mapping S&t national capacity according to data available in CNPQ/Lattes databases and Innovation Portal Expert panels to debate the following themes:
and international cooperation) S&t monitoring using text mining techniques applied to relevant international databases Delphi, involving around 1,
Even though they held a rich database of genetic resources, the ASS merely charged the cost of handling
and maintain comprehensive databases of individuals and institutions working on different global challenges. They were made also openly available to the research communnit
Towards this end foresight can facilitaat access to and co-ordination of different networks and databases of experts and other stakeholders.
'if one relies only on internal databases. Also the composition of the initial consortium may impact on the capacity to engage with wider networks.
building on diverse statistical and policy support databases and the plethora of documentation from different levels of research and innovation systems.
because databases from consortium partners were used, and the consortium did not reflect all disciplines involved. 34.
Automated text-mining tools as well as databases that allow for tagging and categorisation can help with clustering individual observations.
but also video documentaries, reports and databases. A focused expert review supported by internet scanning has the advantage that it can use any available source and tool that is on the internet.
Database tools that are connected to search engines such as Google news Timeline, Google Insight, Web of Science, 9 or Gapminder10 are very helpful for this purpose.
as reported in literature Novelty High High High Cross-checking with scientific databases. Cross-checking with results from recent foresight exercises In focused expert review by tracing back on internet (e g. google timeline) As reported by survey respondents;
and credibility Medium Medium High Through discussion with peers In text-mining dependent on sources fed into database.
combining the flexibility of Wikis with the structure of databases',Bioinformatics, 26: 2210 1. Chilton,
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