and detect early signals of change such as discontinuities, inflection points, outliers or disruptive developments. The process is targeted mainly to the private sector
thus shows a number of shortcomings with respect to its impact on decision-making that can be summarised by the following three points:
and there is no point in policing it sternly. It is, however, important that participants do devote considerable attention to truly external developments. 474 E. A. Eriksson,
At this point, goals and values of the different actors come into play. A possible starting point is therefore a debate on visions related to the focal issue of the exercise.
identification of collective pathways (multiple backcasting) A common type of backcasting work in a multiple framework scenarios context is to identify bifurcation points and early warning indicators.
and key decision points to get there. This approach is useful because it helps capture the room for manoeuver available to move towards a collective vision,
Novelty was assessed using a seven-point Likert-scale, while participation was evaluated by choosing one of the following statements:
and Suitability for WWNNE using a seven-point Likert-scale. The purpose of the first criterion was to measure how relevant the research issue would to industrial uses,
the workshop participants filled a questionnaire form where they were asked to evaluate the relevance of each research sub-area for European collaboration by using a seven-point Likertsccal
and tools for portfolio and project management. 519 D. K. R. Robinson, T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 The point we make is that technological uncertainty
Which can have unintended consequences as Anthony Giddens 40 points out Merton has provided perhaps the classical discussion of the issue.
and in the early 1990s high expectations were raised about the possibilities of performing (bio) chemical analysis at any lab-on-a-chip and at anytime, for example, total blood analysis at the patient's bedside (Point-of-care testing).
which constrain lateral freedom (at a certain point it will be difficult for SMES to switch to another approach)
A major point was distributed IP for development of an integrated platform, the agreement being that new models need to be sought.
and hierarchies is still a moot point, however, since markets and hierarchies have had always networking elements associated with them.
producing and validating new scientific knowledge. 11 From the point of viewofr&dand innovation (RTDI) processes, they have focussed on twomain activities:
and ERIA The point of departure is a highly selective set of fundamental features of the EU:(
This is useful as a point of comparison between this study and others, even if a strict structuralist account of the data is adopted not.
if points are located in the diagonal area pointing to the upper right corner. Points to the left of the diagonal indicate potential sustainability deficits as the option is more desirable from the average stakeholder groups'perspective than from a balanced sustainability perspective.
Points in the lower right corner represent options that are rated low by stakeholders but would rank higher
if a more balanced consideration of goals was taken into account. A final note of caution is appropriate
and FTA PROCESSES. o Section 5 points out preliminary conclusions and directions for further research. 2. Methods of FTA and risk assessment 2. 1. The methods of future-oriented technology analysis Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) can be seen as a common
One or two examples from Ref. 5 will suffice to make the point: Memorable events seem more likely than less memorable events.
Fromthe policy-makers'point of viewthere is a clear demand for an instrument providingwell argued, sound and tangible results to serve as the basis for informed action.
Another entry point could be Strategic Environmental Assessment. An example can be found in Scotland,
The study context of application tends to affect citizens that have not been involved in the scientific justification of its propositions a key point already made with respect to Inclusive foresight.
rare group at the highest point in the hierarchy who contrive to meld Outer-directed power with Inner-directed sensitivity.
The key point here is that novelties do not traverse a static landscape made up of various selection environments (such as regulations, markets, policy etc.
They suggest the quasi-evolutionary approach citing that Constructive TA could act as a middle point. Robinson and Propp made a first step through exploring path dynamics 6 They developed a multi-path mapping approach
We will return to this point below. 2) Institutional positioning of prioritisation. Historically, institutions whether ministries, fundiin agencies,
Several particiipant rightly made the point that consideration of domain priority areas could not be done in isolation from discussions of research infrastructures, the new University, and so on.
Up until this point, the exercise had been conceptualised largely by the FNR, executed by the FNR and remained, in name,‘FNR Foresight'.
Discussion around this point tended to get tied up with the idea of identifying new‘competence niches'for Luxembourg to exploit.
A related point was the apparent tension between the need to maintain thematic‘variety'in the research system and the need to build‘critical mass'in a few selected niches.
This point was made by some participants in the exercise, as well as by the OECD (2007), which recommended a clearer distinction between policy formulation (the preserve of the MCHER
and their methodology had to be adapted to the degree of progress made up to that point. 8. Other elements included the review analysis by the OECD on Luxembourg's public research apparatus, the multiannnua development programmes of the public research centres and the University of Luxembourg,
and its introduction into the foresight process at specifically designed points in order to supply participants with the necessary data as and when required.
up to the point that the expectation of high barriers prevents the necessary initiatives to be taken in the first place.
the discussion will highlight how such an image creation can influence the participatory potential of social groups up to the point where we might question the added value of their contributions.
Some points of note in Fig. 1:!The patent trends (upper left) show that overall SOFC activity is lively and increasing.!
Some points of note:!The Scorecard (upper left) helps assess whether we seem to have a good fit.
, using the Vantagepoint Reader software) enables digging down to locate specifics on a point of interest e g.,
with an emphasis on points of mutual agreement and apparent consensus. This can be contrasted with dissensual development where the emphasis is purposely on retaining the full range of diverse priorities that may be suggested by different value networks
This picks up the point above, that stakeholder engagement and participation is at the core of foresight activities
accepted 1 october 2004 Abstract Every month, SRI CONSULTING BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (SRIC-BI) professionals assemble more than 100 short abstracts of developments that they perceive to be signals of change, discontinuities, inflection points, outliers, or disruptive developments.
discontinuities, inflection points, and disruptive forces in the business environment. The scanning process is the foundation of the open intelligence services that the Scan program provides to its clients.
As Ray Kurzweil points out in his The Age of Spiritual Machines 3 the bulk of human neural circuitry excels at pattern-recognition functions.
Although our description must begin with a certain point in the process, the process operates continuously as it has at SRI International and SRIC-BI for the past 25 years.
Inflection points! Disruptive developments or technologies. Participating scanners cast their nets broadly to bring in signals of change from various domains,
For example, one abstract about Fair isaac and Co. known for generating algorithms to check consumer creditworthiness) points out that Fair
The observation is a to-the-point example of the continuing expansion of the information economy into the broader service economy and of
's observation that one could effectively disable a major portion of the population by printing the New york times in 4-point type (a very small type size.
Formosa's points are that many disabilities derive from the user's environment and that designers frequently have much to say about what that environment looks like 8. Many abstracts deal with innovative business processes
The experience of stakeholders‘‘overwrote''the methodological rigidity in some points. Exclusive The work was carried out among the project partners.
The whole point of FTA is to better inform our decisions, and this involves knowledge of historical and contemporary dynamics and developments,
An important point stressed in this context is the vital role that third parties can play in interpretation
illustrations, keywords, etc. can be created to clarify the main points at stake. The joint construction of knowledge by participants may result in a great deal of the key knowledge being shared within the team or workshop involved.
The same points can be made in respect of posits. The idea that knowledge development takes place through a (typically clockwise) multi-cycle spiral movement through these different SECI cycle categories is a powerful heuristic for explicating FTA EXERCISES and activities.
The complexity of FTA PROCESSES means that they can involve application of similar techniques for different purposes, at different points in the foresight knowledge cycle.
At any of these points, members of the workshop may be introducing new insights and considerations, and linking the discussion of posits to practical actions in their own organisations.
for example, with more qualitative analysis required to explore possible factors shaping take off points, ceilings, novel applications of the technology that is diffusing, and so on.
a number of points can be made. Experts (engineers, designers, social analysts, political actors) are seen as possessing particularly valued-and sometimes privileged knowledge.
In addition to the general point about the need to integrate FTA and risk assessment approaches (see 24),
At this point there is much force to Whitehead's perception that‘Science is concerned with generalities.
These points have been raised and discussed extensively by Ulrich 12, and Loveridge and Street 13. Ulrich's 12 Critical systems Heuristics (CSH) recognises that various stakeholders in society may see situations 14 in radically different ways because different stakeholder values and behavioural characteristics lead to different boundary judgements.
participation and inclusiveness, understanding of all points of view (consensus-oriented), responsiveness which is related to effectiveness and efficiency,
a point made forcefully at least as early as 1972 in the publication of the‘‘Limits to Growth''38.
tipping points in culture, science and ecology; familiar bases for economic value, international conflict and innovations may be shifting resulting in loss of control by the old guard actors;
Experience from the UK foresight program points towards the value of a significant period of‘aftercare,
ISSN 1463-6689 jforesight j PAGE 279 Vicente Carabias is a Senior Scientist in‘‘Foresight and Sustainable development''and EU Contact Point at the Institute of Sustainable development,
With the help of structurally open methods, more clarity could have been achieved on this point in advance;
One way of visualising such nonlinear relationships is as tipping points or phase changes such as water freezing.
the preferred entrance point of actor network theory 6, 11. Then, the analyst would trace the emerging concentrations in actor-networks (e g.,
What are, from a market point of view, the different options and focus points? What are the results of private companies that contribute to the realization of the technology?
What are, from a scientific point of view, the different options and focus points? Society Technological field (Research group Basic research Market Fig. 2. Questions that are raised
Cientifica14 24 from a market perspective points out that, when the opportunities for nanotubes in electronic devices are discussed:
A brief historical digression is helpful at this point. Technology assessment (TA) started in the late 1960s as an dearly warningt method 33,
Understanding the dynamics from the different perspectives gives insight in the different points of view of the actors involved in the CTA study. 16 Finally,
On this point, backcasting and‘‘future verification assessments'',processes which evaluate existing laws and their performance by contrasting their initial (and desirable) visions of the future with the one effectively accomplished;
These contributions point to possible future directions to be followed by FTA in order to better cope with Grand challenges. The arguments in the keynote of Ollila are in line with a tendency of the private side to claim that they are prepared better for the future than the public side.
Loveridge and Saritas align with Linestone in that they point to the problem of ignorance, and the need to admit it.
and Lash 1994) have emphasised further the point that reflexivity in thought and action creates a delicate balance between predictability and unpredictability in social systems and interactions.
Bower and Christensen 1995) assumes that we know the dimensions on which we will measure their‘beastliness'at the point of their emergence.
After it evolves to a point where it becomes useful for vision, a newdomain of action emerges.
At the same point, a‘world of vision'is created, simultaneously with the functional organ that we now can call‘the eye'.
'At this point, we can also start to tell a story about the‘proto-eye
At that point, social practices start to change. Messaging becomes a key driver for development and profit in the telecom industry,
After reaching a point that satisfies as a mountain top the climber can look back and say‘Aha,
The crucial point for Rosen is that time works differently in natural and formal systems.
we can use the formal system to find out the state of the natural system in some future point of time.
create hypotheses about the unobservable causal relationships, fast forward the formal model to a future point of time,
As discussed above, at this transition point, ontological expansion occurs and a world of vision emerges.
At that point, our models of the world also change and we become able to start to gather facts and data about the new phenomenon.
however, points to the central role that the prediction has been playing in the strategic game between the manufacturers of memory chips (Mackenzie 1990.
to provide a comprehensive vision of the future evolution of the firm business environment, in a procees that guarantees that all view points (people,
or points of view (appreciation is another part of foresight) since this breaks down existing limits, brings coherence to everybody involved
and PP) is indicated by a different colored dot on the landscape. A sixth dot color represents CIS indirect investments.
Overlaps between areas can be seen where dots of different colors are shown together. Labels indicate the most dominant btitleq words and their frequencies for each peak on the landscape.
Light-colored dots show the Sandia CIS projects, while black dots indicate projects from the other DOE laboratories.
Dark dots surrounded by few light dots thus show areas semantically within the Sandia CIS space,
but that currently receive little or no Sandia investment. K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1133 rolling up all of the IAS to an overall Sandia category.
The identification of these common points directs us to btechnology categoriesq that can be analyzed further to identify the portfolio of technology that characterizes the capabilities of each laboratory.
and long term),(2) translating the critical parts of the roadmap into action points, and (3) revisiting the roadmap periodically,
This visualisation underlines a crucial point: all three temporal scales are based on interpretation that is, the actors have different interpretations of the present in relation to the past
We seek key leverage points at which the innovation pathways can be influenced strongly. The elements that appear in a TDS depiction change from application to application.
and spotlighting leverage points to affect the prospects of successful commercialisation. Roper et al. 2011) elaborate on a means to formulate a TDS for a given NEST the approach is qualitative
and/or business management leverage points enhance the prospects of success? If possible, it can also be valuable to obtain the views of the participants on impact assessment:
We seek key leverage points at which the innovation pathways can be influenced strongly. Figure 2 presents our TDS
and holes needed to travel Third generation Cadmium sulphide (Cds) To improve efficiency (mainly by Quantum Dots nanotechnology) Utilisation of materials
The points of the studies are diversified interdisciplinary or discussion and a mission-oriented approach. Information from the Delphi method and scenario is converged using text mining to position scientific and technological areas in a big picture.
The main points are expert panels by cross-disciplinary theme rather than by technological discipline, the active participation of specialists in social science and humanities,
circular dots indicate the 36 key areas above, which are graded according to the experts'expectation. Square dots indicate the five scenarios mentioned in section 4. 1,
where science and technology are expected to make great contribution because a lot of Delphi topics are related closely.
and shown as square dots in Figure 4 are linked to topics in at least half of all panels.
The points of the exercise were diversified interdisciplinary or discussion and a mission-oriented or problem-solving approach.
and the necessary steps to move forward based on an overall perspective that integrates individual stakeholders'points-of-view.
a successful strategic dialogue does take into account that each individual has a very specific agenda, focus points,
At this point, BMBF units as well as other relevant ministries are brought together again to review the results
Because of the wide involvement of stakeholders up to this point policy initiatives are highly likely to meet stakeholder requirements
and preparation of step 6). The results were addressed then in a tightly structured workshop with about 35 experts (step 6 with elements of step 7). Points of agreement became transparent as well as issues of potential conflict.
A number of points are developed then that are related to the process and results described in the case study. 3. 2 Scope and context of the exercise In the second half of 2010,
The points made in relation to the exercise in the article are my own, and do not represent the views of Forfa's. 3. See www. forfas. ie/newsevents/news/title, 6828,
A further point to keep in mind is that numbers may create the impression that the future is less uncertain than it actually is. 3 In this respect Linstone 12,13 points out that the possibilities of forecasting may be limited especially when the dynamic,
Goodwin 11 points to the effect of hindsight bias (the tendency to believe that our forecasts were more accurate than they actually were) on forecasting,
Valette 32 points at opportunities for foresight exercises that combine expert-based contrasted socioeconomic and policy scenarios (qualitative part) and a mathematical quantification of the impacts of the alternative scenarios (quantitative part)( p. 239.
For example, Georghiou and Harper 66 point at the concern that administrations may want to harness FTA
The test points in the test set are classified by calculating the distance to the nearest training point in the training set;
the sign of each point then determines the classification of the test sample. In the paper, we employ it to process the multidimensional (13-D) data.
and 24 test points in the NBS test set. The training points aj and test points bk are defined as aj A 1;
j ð Þ A 13; j ð Þ; ð10þ bk B 1; k ð Þ B 13;
For a training point aj O and test point bk, the distance between aj and bk is defined as dist aj;
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 For each test point bk, we compute the distance between bk
and find the nearest training point (Fig. 5), that means dist aj0-bk min dist aj;
we have to calculate the minimum distance between each test point and all the training points and then obtain all the label information of bk,
that is the TLC stage information of NBS. 3. Results and implications for management Table 5 shows the label results for each test point of NBS.
The label information of the first 12 test points (1985 1996) of NBS can be matched with that in the emerging stage of TFT-LCD
and the label information of the second 12 test points (1997 2008) of NBS can be matched with that in the growth stage of TFT-LCD.
We separately showed our results to two NBS experts who are working for Georgia Institute of technology.
and training points. 405 L. Gao et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 definitive projections.
and training points to find the most similar feature in training points. Therefore, the stage of the training point with the nearest distance to the test point predicts the stage of the test point.
In this study, we take TFT-LCD and CRT as the training technologies and NBS as the test technology.
After some introductory thoughts in the first part, it is tried in the second part to summarize in five points some of the still missing pieces to complete the puzzle to developing a firmly based Evolutionary theory of technological change (ETTC.
Each of these five points are discussed then more in detail in the third part, being commented also on briefly the most 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
Needless to say that these points are interrelated strongly and then difficult to be commented on without some overlapping of ideas:
I think that some of the above mentioned points are hindering the development of working computational algorithms to simulate technological evolution.
It is impossible to accomplish the full discussion of all these points in a short paper planned to a seminar talk.
I hope that the following text commenting briefly on each of these points should serve as a basis for establishing an effort toward an international research agenda on the subject 3...to complete the puzzle 3. 1. To point 1:
when discussing points 4 and 5), but is not sufficient to explain the ubiquity of the logistic curve in the living world.
which also begets complexity growth) a point that has not been accounted suitably for in the efforts for finding a universal evolutionary algorithm.
Here we are dealing also with one of the most controversial points in all previous attempts of comparisons between biological and technological evolution,
as well as some of the candidate rules (point 4 ahead) driving the phenomenon and still absent from much of this discussion.
which it shares many common points) considered that humans through their technical handle continued nature work,
In the points below I try to resume some important aspects that were considered never consistently in the attempts of model building of an ETTC:
amplified by the development of learning capabilities (we will turn to this point ahead). 3 Following this reasoning we can state then that humans,
At this point it is worth to point out that I agree with Joel Mokyr 19 that the unity of analysis that makes sense for the study of technological evolution is the dtechnique.
after a lapse of almost a half century after the initial thrust commented on in point 1. Basically he suggested that Darwinism contained a general theory of the evolution of all complex systems,
and made the point that the appropriate analogy for social evolution is not biotic evolution,
When discussing on the previous points I have pointed already out some features that have not been accounted yet for in the body of existing work on technological evolution.
To finalize the present discussion on point 4 I would like to add some other further aspects equally not yet considered as well:
and conclude with suggested points of departure for further research. 433 P. De Smedt et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 2. Material and methods How can we learn about orienting innovation systems from future scenario practice?
In addition, we also identified some points of departure for further refinement of current scenario practices with respect to innovation.
(DOT), National aeronautics and space administration (NASA), National institutes of health (NIH), and the National science Foundation (NSF). 446 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 support nanotechnology education, research and development the fastest will thrive in the new millennium 1. These statements illustrate that the report
The findings at that point were indicating a shift towards demand-driven innovation combined with a much more diffused involvement in the innovation process and more diverse innovation skills.
A deepened understanding of the different points of view and perspectives was achieved compared to many other approaches looking for early convergence rather than emphasising divergence.
but takes them as a point of departure rather than seeking either to report upon them
Papers that overall covered a wide range of points-of-view and topics, hailing from many different contexts and academic disciplines.
At the moment many conversations in the foresight community point towards the emergence of a shared sense-making framework, one that could help to map current undertakings as well as,
such as Japan, to express view points and disagreement without involving personal sym-or antipathies. Conversely, Consensus Conferences and User Panels are used widely in Denmark,
and the barriers and leverage points experienced by policy-makers are described and compared at the local and the national level.
Gertler and Wolfe 9 corroborate this point by outlining that foresight processes should be seen as socially organised learning processes
Costanzo 16 reinforces this point, claiming that nimbleness, visible and structured processes, and extensive communication glued together by a focused management team,
visions and value networks. 2 This was the departure point in designing the first questionnaire in the IMS2020 project as described in Section 3. 3 Contractor
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