Adaptive foresight thus favours a more modest interpretation of the collective ability to shape the future
it strongly stresses the collective ability to shape the future and tends to underestimate the limitations to which decision-making is subject in the face of interactive and globalised innovation processes.
and the ability to keep options open until we can use them effectively (or know they have become irrelevant).
the ability to predict at an early stage which particular pathways and applications will lead to mass markets,
The ability to shape the future is limited by the extent to which external developments (such as the strategies of other actors but also exogenous developments) can vary.
achievements and deficits In the light of insights from research on innovation and technological change, much foresight thinking and practice have struck us as somewhat over-simplistic and in particular over-optimistic in its hopes, e g. with respect to the ability to mobilise innovation system stakeholders to act
Adaptive with respect to the balance between the ability to shape and the need to adapt to the future.
Conventional foresight approaches have tended to stress the ability to shape the future by initiating participatory processes involving key actors,
and improve our ability to sense and assess future developments in their socioeconomic and technological dimensions.
and improve its ability to act. These internal processes need equally the support of foresight specialists and should
However, this ability to take continuously on board new insights still needs to be built explicitly into the process, both within individual AF cycles and along the implementation of several such cycles.
, the ability to accommodate inputs from large number of participants) and the management of multiple interfaces present in European-wide innovation policy coordination. 2. Foresight within ERA NETS The ERA NET scheme3 seeks to strengthen the coordination
For Frontiers, the abilities to map possible emerging socio-technical paths and use them to direct the portfolio of research lines within the network would be attractive (management issue 1 see Section 1). In addition,
The Swedish foresight initiative also demonstrated that the timing of an initiative has a critical influence on its ability to affect policy.
namely their ability to make participatory processes and structures more open and transparent, and to bring to the fore hidden obstacles,
an awareness of changing circumstances and their ability to alter existing perceptions and goals, thus generating alignment where none existed before;
The paper makes a convincing case for how one needs new tools to enable effective international positioning for comparative understanding about national innovation ability and performance.
Nonetheless, the principal virtue of this hierarchical graph approach is the ability to use this probability model to anticipate novel combinations of technologies.
managerial teams in government's executive branch overlaid on the existing bureaucracy could significantly enhance the government's ability to analyse
Treatment of surprise and discontinuities A reason often quoted for using scenario planning as a decision support tool is its ability to reduce overconfidence about the future 35.
However, one might argue that the higher costs of inductive approaches in the beginning might pay off later in the process given the fact that unmet expectations about the ability of scenarios to deliver novel insights about future developments oftentimes lead to frustration or rejection of the approach by policy-makers.
Current conditions in many governments and public administrations constrain the ability to effectively pursue direct forms of scenario-based decision support.
There are important claims in the literature about scenario's ability to affect the cognition of individuals and groups by reducing overconfidence,
While the ability of a scenario planning exercise to deal with discontinuities and surprise factors is influenced by methodological design aspects,
and abilities of those carrying in out and the degree to which they are empowered formally to take participants through novel and provoking discussions.
Smart decision making linked to the ability to innovate calls for the anticipation and exploration of future directions through a societal debate within policy making,
The ability to design adaptive processes is linked therefore to the recognition that there is a need to introduce into processes of government
and Jacobsson to underpin the system by improving its ability to serve five primary functions:(
These tensions include the ability (or otherwise) to underpin the foresight process with sufficient and appropriate‘objectivised'knowledge (including national statistics,
when priority setting is a country's ability to make the most of this potential.
'since future investments in research infrastructures or future changes in policies/regulations, for example, can make a significant difference to a country's ability to exploit a particular S&t thematic area.
With the recognition of the limitations of government's ability to actively plan and shape future developments in an efficient and fully informed manner,
their ability to address present and future issues and to act responsibly in a changing environment. Less attention,
Expectational reflexivity delimits our ability to influence the future, simppl because existing rules and constraints are taken for granted as preconditions for future environments (Jenssen,
and acting with respect to an object of steering also affects the subject and its ability to steer'.
The paper aimed to enhance the ability of Foresight to fulfil these functions through systematically taking into account (a) the specific characteristics of the research
and pattern-recognition abilities to identify early signals of change, discontinuities, inflection points, and disruptive forces in the business environment.
As the ability to predict outcomes decreases, the risk of deciding to pursue a particular course of action increases.
a systematic ability to search out, capture, and interpret clues about emerging and as yet unanticipated customer preferences.
and the ability to sense, make sense of, and adapt to these changes. Although a number of dramatic new information-technology (IT) and artificial-intelligence (AI) tools are emerging to perform monitoring and analysis functions
These terms represented combinations of the scale of benefits and the ability to capture them (attractiveness)
a base of knowledge and abilities that are technically feasible and ethically desirable is needed. Implicitly, sustainable development recognises the need for technology to develop solutions that conserve the Earth's resources,
and the ability to exert corporate controls. This also raises the need for board evaluation measures against corporate and societal objectives as well as on the effect of stakeholders'communication and participation on management, transparency, performance (economic, environmental and social),
The ability of the FTA COMMUNITY to garner sufficient credibility, legitimacy and authority to contribute to such global agendas is still a concern.
unplanned events that eventually overwhelm the system's ability to cope. The idea is similar to the Black swan theory described by Taleb 10 in his book‘‘The Black swan''.
in order to increase the ability of social groups to adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business or social environments.
confidence levels in the ability of existing systems to adapt; Usual suspects (natural disaster, nuclear accidents, etc.
but also to their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to grand challenges. Social implications The papers of this Special issue point to the need for FTA to take into account user perspectives
but also to their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to grand challenges. About the authors Vicente Carabias, who has a MSC in Environmental sciences from ETHZ in 1996,
Key criteria for the categorisation of methods are their abilities in dealing with different types of missing knowledge.
However, the ability to detect specific unintended effects depends on the scenario methodology applied and thus, has to be discussed in relation to the different variations of the methodology.
and B an ability to deliberately switch frames. In addition to using Reframing to enable a change in the way we see,
Foresight techniques must provide policy makers with the ability to generate a range of future options
Participatory elements enhance the ability to explore highly complex and uncertain, value-laden issues, increase social learning and in themselves advance social change (Robinson et al. 2011, p. 757).
We define it as the ability of controlled manipulation at the nanoscale (1 100 nm) 5
The ability to control matter at such small length scales got a big push by the development and improvement of a variety of microscopes (e g.
Without the ability to grow nanotubes with the right characteristics beforehand a processor based on nanotube transistors is impossible to produce. 3. 2. 3. Research group Restrictive factors in the development of technologies are repeating phenomena that end up on the agenda of research groups.
Since the Brundtland Commission defined sustainable development as‘‘the ability to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs''(World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987),
or threat increase the ability to create information-based approaches to prevention, thwarting, resource allocation,
the latter needs to embrace each experts substantive knowledge, assessing ability (which enables substantive knowledge to be interpreted'into the future), and imagination;
assessing ability and imagination. Substantive knowledge was the base from which the expert's responses,
assessing ability was the way and skill with which the expert was able to interpret his knowledge into the future
and imagination was free thinking ability. Next, the elicitation moved to an assessing ability test in which the interviewee was asked to respond to 10 questions, drawn from the Guinness Book of Records, in a probabilistic way:
this was used to alert the interviewees to the need to think probabilistically about their responses during the next phase of the elicitation.
the assessing ability test was repeated this time using questions drawn from the interviewees'field of expertise.
The scores from the second assessing ability test were a form of calibration of each interviewees assessing ability.
Our arguments suggest that a crucial issue is the ability to distinguish continuous drivers of change from discontinuous ones.
In Section 4, the value-creating activities managed across a business network are linked to the ability of a network to self-organise:
The situation seems to rely on the ability to build a group of generic behaviours or actions over
Moreover, it should link the activities that need to be performed at each stage to build an organisation's ability to know itself (how things are done in the present),
The dynamic capability and ability to behave as a complex system are what enable the system to adapt to disruptive changes.
and defined as‘the ability of a team to dissolve attractors that close possibilities for effective action
'Meta-learning can also be understood as the ability to learn how to learn and/or think (Losada 2001).
reward/punishment systems-Cooperation starts to be felt-Cooperation between interdependent teams-Informal training of sustain ability and necessary skills and practice-Teamwork,
individual abilities-Policies support practicces aim to reduce impacts with better use of materials and natural resources-Structured processes/activities-Firm-wide understandiin of activities, roles and responsibilities-Idea
According to Dempster, one of the most important differences between autopoietic and sympoietic systeem relates to the balance between their ability to maintain their identity
individuaal and corporations should have the ability to respect each other. These might be the necessary characteristics to enable actors within business networks to perform at higher levels
Larsen 2003) and ability to live with the paradox of chaos and order, competition and cooperation, through sympoietic system capability.
and gain sustainable competitive advantages Communication The ability to document and demonstrate in deeds through specific communication channels how intentions are put into practice, together with an ongoing continuous dialogue, builds mutual trust and transparency.
The ability to communicate with different audiences (all stakeholders) and in diverse specific languages becomes critical in this context Competencies There is a latent importance of building an organisational culture that stimulates knowledge generation
what demonstrate the firm's ability to act responsbility and ethically. Hence, values are seen as a strategic tool to align all activities along the network
and ability to compete in the near future, is low. Using this metric, we find that the barrier to entry is reasonably low for the computational biology
The value of this analysis lies in its ability to identify the technological capabilities of each laboratory,
An anticipatory agency can be defined as a strategic ability of an organisation to construct feasible targets for the future through shared dialogue,
and (4) internationality Opening the field towards the efficient use of ICTS Fostering abilities to build long-lasting partnerships with the clients Using prospective argumentatiio to endorse the strategic aims From intense price competittio
abilities at Nordic regional level Construction of implementation strategies Visionary Building long-term visionary glimpses to the futures of ICT applications and adoption of ICT in Nordic region Aimed at systemic
and fostered systemleeve strategic abilities at the level of the Nordic region. In addition, the project built a systematic set of actions in the medium and long term
an organization might have to adapt its structure again and again to optimize its ability to absorb each round of foresight results
their ability to add a unique perspective, their openness to consider and explore a broad range of possibilities and viewpoints,
Therefore, the ability to access new markets can only be prepared if knowledge about competitor's intention and capabilities can be monitored.
but also to their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to fundamental changes. At the same time, FTA can contribute to building‘change'capacities that allow organisations to become capable of anticipating
the value of models is not so much in their ability to tell us with a degree of certainty what will happen to society,
but rather in their ability to structure thinking on the basis of the information available.
adaptability and ability to shape responses to challenges and transformations. A central issue in many FTA projects is how to cope with a multiplicity of worldviews and values,
Theoretically, the potential of EMA to FTA is its ability to cope with a multiplicity of deep and irreducible uncertainties in the analysis of decision-making problems
but in particular the second case, showed how the ability to cope with uncertainties can help in iteratively developing dynamic adaptive strategies that are robust across a large part of the uncertainty space.
and abilities of individuals who enthusiastically support it. 6. Conclusions In this paper we analyzed and discussed the applicability of future scenarios as narratives to represent different perspectives on present and future developments.
and to develop commensurate abilities to perceive interconnectedness. A practical consideration is that much FTA ACTIVITY depends upon expertise
an ability to see the different strands of theory and practice that made up the 2011 FTA conversation in the light of subsequent developments.
Popper suggests that foresight methods can be characterised by their ability to gather or process information, based on four abilities:
evidence, expertise, interaction and creativity, or combinations of these abilities. Creative abilities refer to the mixture of original and imaginative thinking.
Expertise refers to the skills and knowledge of individuals in the particular area of the foresight exercise.
Expertise is used often to support top-down decisions, provide advice and make recommendations. Expert Panels and to some extent Delphi surveys are examples of foresight methods that have a high content of expertise.
Together, the four abilities constitute a four edged diamond that has one ability in each corner of the diamond.
According to Popper, most foresight methods comprise a mix of several of the four abilities. As the practical use of foresight methods varies significantly from case to case,
improving their ability to assess the quality of futures research projects that have been outsourced. On the whole, we conclude that, at a national level,
which in turn implies that foresight exercises can lead to the reconfiguration of a policy system and increase its ability to meet major challenges.
the ability to shape a common path to follow becomes important. This should be built upon a collective vision,
form an important core capability that impacts on the ability of organisations to undertake strategic foresight.
and further shaping an exercise. 2. 3. Capacity to reconfigure international networks The ability to build upon both formal and informal international networks can help combine existing knowledge in novel ways.
Hence, the ability to keep options open until results can be used effectively (or have become irrelevant) is paramount.
and does not take into account the ability to flexibly adapt and change over time (Annex 1). The authors
Moreover, the use of Commonkads (step 5 phase 3) guaranteed organisational learning to take place based upon the development of new abilities for all involved (teachers, students, community, etc.
and its stakeholders'ability to develop a joint vision and define where each one would like to position itself within a range of likely futures
This entails an improved ability to include a long-term view of the organisation and its partners in the value chain considering alternative futures and building upon increased participation in decision making processes for applications such as:
This initially analyzed the‘‘ability of firms to recognize the value of new information assimilate it and apply it to commercial ends''26.
, the ability to sense change and acquire necessary capabilities to meet changes, including the challenges resulting from the above listed trends 38.2.2.2.
expect the ability of the firm to innovate and thus to remain at the competitive edge to be improved significantly.
and ability to move fast when the signals or threats are there. Make sure the client's policy commitments as well as communication resources are provided well for
and its ability to deliver new services globally. The adoptiio of novel or significantly enhanced ICTS may lead to new services
adaptive in terms of stressing the need to adapt to changing contextual developmeent (as opposed to stressing the ability to shape the future), in terms of assigning iterative monitoring and learning a central role in foresight,
This is as much due to the inherent limitations of our abilities to look into the future and of the possibilities of what FTA can deliver as it is to the client's unrealistic expectations.
Applying the critical success factors to Canada's foresight program Our studies have identified eight critical success factoors The strength of any model is its ability to assist
With a change in government and a progressive demotion of the NSA function as the new government became more confident in its abilities,
low opportunity cost testing for many infectious agents Ability to test large numbers of people in a noninterventionist manner Broad screening tools Improved border biosecurity Personalized
a frequently recurring issue in user research is limited the ability of common users to break loose from the existing frame of reference
and the ability to capture and analyse very large sets of data. Significant methodological and even philosophical tensions are arising as a result of this shift.
These features impact directly on the client's perceived ability and engagement. The paper emphasises the role of intangible values and‘out-off-the-box'thinking
Strategic foresight is defined by Slaughter (1999) as the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view
in addition to the ability to explain the reasoning process through clear, consistent and coherent recommendations and outcome pathways.
Individual and group abilities must be managed to provide ways and means of overcoming difficulties and limits associated with their culture, knowleddge training and perceptions and beliefs.
lies in the ability to develop tailor-made methodologies, by employing a number of tools and methods.
the challenge of engaging clients and stakeholders in the main and commitmeen phases depends on the ability of the coordination team to link the participating stakeholders to the technical and scientific communities and vice versa.
However, the selection of areas is guided by their ability to meet national strategic needs (in agriculture
and an ability to respond at the international level. Hence, there is a potentially important role for international organisations to play in this regard.
Finally, the ability to conduct and/or utilise FTA is itself a valuable dynamic capability that encourages organisations to be more responsive, adaptabble and open to change.
European and global levels in the face of sudden crises and point to serious shortcomings in our ability to anticipate
Science and technology are also the basis of challenges involving the collective ability to respond to opportunities in frontier research.
and projects concerns the ability to absorb the results into decision-making processes. Due to the typical customer client relationship, the opportunities for joint learning and exploration are limited.
in terms of their ability to tackle different types of transformative changes (see Table 2). The first dimension captures four types of transformations,
and the ability to respond at the appropriate international level. Different models of FTA systems can be complementary in many respects.
At the same time, ICSU's independence and unique ability to consult with the worldwide scientific community in conducting global foresight
Furthermore, as part of its Initiative On earth System Sustainability, 2012 22, ICSU worked with funding agencies to encourage the development of internatioona courses targeted at developing the ability of young researchers to conduct interdisciplinary research.
Scalability, the ability to be expanded or upgraded, is needed to process contributions vertically from stakehollder who are accustomed to different levels of abstractiio when considering regional,
Process flexibility refers to the ability to make methodologgica changes in how certain results are obtained such as:
the established power structures and historical path dependencies related to routines and infrastructures may limit the ability of foresight activities to explore alternatives that differ strongly from current pathways.
This debate is unique for human beings with their ability of speech and writing (Chilton 2004;
the ability to trace how signals evolve over time. In general, however, the potential of Twitter to become a main tool for retrieving future-oriented information is high as colleagues,
and the ability to prevent negative impacts may be lost. As the signal starts to have visible negative impacts on its environment
At the individual level, sense-making builds on the actor's ability to perceive, interpret and construct the meaning of the emerging landscape (du Toit 2003;
and small radicalized groups will use more and more sophisticated forms of attacks V M State's ability to guarantee security of citizens will increase in Western world M R Interdependency of internal and external security is growing in EU
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