| Fta (1609) |  |
| Fta activity (72) | |
| Fta approach (37) | |
| Fta community (43) | |
| Fta exercises (14) | |
| Fta experts (4) | |
| Fta international seville seminar (6) | |
| Fta methodologies (5) | |
| Fta methods (59) | |
| Fta process (24) | |
| Fta tools (26) | |
| Impact of fta (28) | |
| Recent fta (3) | |
| Roles of fta (7) | |
Introduction New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis The 2004 EU US seminarb Fabiana Scapolo European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
and consolidate from the recent rejuvenation and growth in future-oriented technology analyses (FTA). In fact, during the recent sharp expansion of FTA, that mainly took place in last two decades,
there has been little systematic attention to conceptual development, research on improved methods, methodological choice, or how best to merge empirical/analytical methods with stakeholder engagement processes.
The diversity among these disciplines reflects the complexity of demands for FTA relating to differences in scope (geographic scale and time horizon;
Scapolo@cec. eu. int Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 The seminar was organised to encourage cross-fertilization along six key issues of relevance for FTA research:
To some extent convergence of opinion and broad measures of agreement were voiced that integrating FTA METHODS with established processes of strategic planning is difficult
There was a strong suggestion that FTA content is increasingly market-driven and more focused on how technology should be used to meet emerging future needs.
their orientation and the problems associated with their understanding of assumptions used in FTA and how to interpret
Political feasibility is an important prerequisite for policy makers'acceptance of FTA conclusions and moulding expert opinions into good conclusions remains an elusive goal. 4. Tales from the frontier The contributions to this session had a fairly common theme in that they focussed on the establishment of databases and the associated data collection,
The issue of how to make available the information being created in FTA EXERCISES brought out diverse opinions varying from concerns with intellectual property rights and exploitation of the resources to exponents of open source approaches to such information.
This session was devoted to the issues of evaluation of FTA and its techniques and processes.
and standardisation that evaluation encourages with the creativity and dwild cardt nature of many of the ideas implicit in good FTA.
and raises a challenge for the FTA COMMUNITY. The general consensus in the session was that FTA is a driver
and an instrument for social change and as such will require high quality evaluation and at the same time within its own constructs,
Evaluation also serves to highlight the role of FTA as learning processes for stakeholders and thereby encouraging widespread innovation in organisational responses to the challenges of the future. 6. Importing ideas As might be expected of a session dealing with new ideas on FTA there was a wide diversity of suggestions and issues presented.
They ranged over linking evolutionary theory with foresight to provide F. Scapolo/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1059 1063 1061 new ways of framing studies, applying the concepts underlying marketing tools based on human behaviour to foresight design,
therefore dealing with new methods of FTA, and other two articles focus on analysis of methods and tools that have been
and challenges related to methods and approaches to improve the value and utility of FTA. Among the methodological issues that could be tackled to improve the FTA field
and start to turn it into a more scientific field, the authors of the papers suggest a number of developments such as a more systematic integration of new technology (especially ICT) to allow interaction
and on how the utility of outcomes can impact the different forms of FTA (i e. technology foresight, technology assessment, technology forecasting, technology and product roadmapping).
and visualisation techniques as supporting tools for FTA especially to assess technological development in the short term.
The last paper by Dezevas presents the state-of-the-art and new approaches in the evolutionary theory of technological change as a tool for FTA.
The work is linked to a programme of Future oriented technology assessment (FTA ACTIVITIES coordinated within a European nanotechnology research network.
Frontiers initiated in 2006 one such programme of Future oriented technology assessment activities (FTA. FTA is used here as an umbrella term for similar forward-looking and/or interactive characteristics of TA approaches.
Another term, with a similar outlook but not limited to technology only, is strategic intelligence (SI) 2
Activities in the FTA programme focus on designing tools and support systems which allow the Frontiers network to develop strategies for a number of different issues relevant to particular areas within nanotechnologies for the life sciences.
Our paper centres on one Frontiers FTA project on the stimulation 1 The EC 6th Framework programme Network of Excellence Frontiers is a network of 14 European research institutes
This system comprises a number of tailorized FTA/SI tools. It is being built around the notion of the‘deployment cycle'
Thus, for developing an FTA relating to paths into the future, knowledge of path dynamics need to be integrated into a process of controlled speculation in combination with other analyses.
Fig. 2). Thus our first aim with the FTA project was to prospect possible socio-technical paths based on projections of the relevant communities involved in research
Whereas MPM-1 was based on the FTA-analyst mapping of the emerging field, MPM for various possible innovation chains requires insights from practitioners who have experience
a large multinational pharmaceutical company initiated the development of a prototype integrated device for chemical analysis with a number of start-up companies 17 For some more information on this and other elements of the Frontier FTA programme,
and can be integrated into FTA ACTIVITIES enhancing the quality of assessment/alignment activities. We mapped initial, potential multiplicity paradigms with path characteristics,
Because of the exploratory nature of this first project of Frontiers'FTA programme, we positioned ourselves as experts in the field of S&t dynamics and path creation vis-à-vis the field-level expertise of the workshop participants.
growing with each new FTA exercise at this network level. MPM can be of use at the level of research group leaders, portfolio managers,
tools to inform debates, dialogues and deliberations, Technikfolgenabschatzung, Theorie und Praxis 2 (14)( 2005) 74 79.14 R. Barre, M. Keenan, FTA Evaluation, Impact and Learning,
Theme 2 Anchor Paper prepared for the IPTS FTA Seminar, Seville,, Sept. 2006.15 L. Georghiou, M. Keenan, Towards a Typology for Evaluating Foresight exercises, Paper 2 in proceedings EU US Seminar:
pragmatic distinction among them is offered in Section 4. 3 FTA stands for Future-oriented technology analysis, one of the terms to denote systematic prospective analysis. 559 A. Havas/Technological forecasting
Yet, the likely impacts of potential changes in these broader systems are analysed not at all in the reviewed FTA ACTIVITIES.
exercises) are part of the broader‘family'of prospective analysis or FTA ACTIVITIES. They have three distinguishing features:
Status and Impact of future-Oriented Technology analysis, Anchor Paper for the Second International Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29,september 2006 available at:
http://forera. jrc. es/documents/papers/anchor/Higheredanchorpaper. pdf. 10 G. Dosi, C. Freeman, R. R. Nelson, G. Silverberg, L
Policy 30 (6)( 2001) 953 976.21 A. Havas, Futures for Universities, paper presented at the Second International Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29 september 2006, available at: http://forera. jrc. es/documents/papers/Futures%20of%20universities paper. pdf. 22 Richard R. Nelson, The market economy,
Future-oriented technology analysis Impacts and implications for policy and decision making The unfolding acceleration of global innovation is expected to become the hallmark of the first half of the 21st century.
This special issue of TFSC presents a provocative alignment of papers designed to begin the probing of these fundamental questions about the future and future-oriented technology analysis (FTA.
FTA provides a common umbrella for the foresight, forecasting and technology assessment communities. These closely related communities play an important role in guiding policy
The challenge of joining forces to develop more robust future-oriented support to decision making has been addressed in the series of International Seville FTA Conference organized by the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies, one of the Joint research Centers
Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: Impacts and implications for policy and decision making 1, enabled FTA EXPERTS, practitioners, and policy and decision makers to share their ideas
and knowledge in order to make FTA more policy relevant. The rising importance of FTA is reflected in the interest for the Third International Seville FTA Conference.
In total, 180 participants attended the Conference, representing/covering all continents. Out of the 166 abstracts that were submitted (50 more than in 2006), the Conference Scientific Committee selected 56 papers in order to build a comprehensive Conference program.
The Conference program covered both FTA methodological aspects and application of fta to policy fields such as, research and innovation, security and sustainability.
The best papers presented in this conference are published in four different scientific journals of which this special issue for Technological forecasting and Social Change consists of the selected papers with particular emphasis on methodological aspects of FTA,
thus following the example of the first special issue from the previous edition of the Conference 2. This issue offers the reader a unique opportunity to travel with the editors on a journey of discovery where new approaches to the development of policies for advancing societal
The selection of papers provides the practitioners of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA innovation policy development and others inclined toward the provocation of innovation an opportunity to learn some new approaches as well as to reflect further upon some familiar tools such as risk assessment being profiled re within the new context of FTA.
In this way the issue also contributes to an evolving tool bag of diverse and enhanced tools for societally useful global innovation.
The papers and technical notes assembled from the 2008 FTA Conference were selected carefully and further nurtured to bring out three key themes:
FTA is clearly moving ahead to explore, adopt and engage novel approaches that will address innovation challenges
FTA still remains a somewhat ambiguous alignment of diverse tools, disciplines and intellectual traditions and paradigms and this we believe is consistent with the dynamism of transition to a knowledge-based economy;
FTA really has begun to engage and provoke the traditional complacency of policy makers who tend to treat technology as an externality,
probably the most challenging and innovative for policy makers and FTA PROCESS designers is Scott Cunningham's Analysis for Radical innovation.
because they are concerned also with the application of novel and adapted FTA TOOLS and approaches. The excellent paper of Störmer et al.
Koivisto et al. examine how traditions of risk assessment are being adapted to the new more agile and greater uncertainties context of FTA.
Integrating Future-oriented technology analysis and Risk assessment (RA) Methodologies provides a clear example of where an older discipline meets a new one
and interplay between FTA and RA approaches is considered a necessity at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland for being truly innovative
broad-scope FTA COMMUNITY and the more established, traditionally focused RA community. Loikkanen et al. another Finnish team, bring this novel focus on tools further into the interface with policy approaches in their timely paper on the Role of Technology barometer in Assessing Past and Future development of National Innovation system.
and thus the capacity to know one's own technological position relative to others represents a new FTA capability with real world predictive performance capacity.
Priority areas for Australia's future features an excellent case example of the importance and learning being experienced from the application of novel FTA METHODOLOGIES to explore the possibilities offered by the use of nanotechnologies to contribute to new and improved approaches to energy conversion,
when he presented his paper Analysis for Radical Design to the FTA Conference: Changes are multitudinous.
To conclude this special issue we welcome the column From My Perspective of the Founder and Editor-In-chief of this journal and one of the key participants of the FTA 2008 Seville Conference, Professor Harold A. Linstone.
FTA evokes the power and appeal of hopeful, sustainable imaginative futures that can enable our species to apply its intuitive ingenuity to face the challenges of today and those anticipated over the horizon:
when FTA enables more robust policy, things can improve. References 1 JRC-IPTS, European commission, Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA:
Impacts and implications for policy and decision making The 2008 FTA International Seville Conference. Online source:
http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/intro. html (2009-07-30). 2 F. Scapolo, M. Rader, A Porter, Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA:
impact on policy and decision making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 75 (4)( 2006) 457 582.
Totti Könnölä is a research fellow at the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the Joint research Centre in the European commission.
New future-oriented technology analysis techniques, such as the approach suggested here, may contribute to the process and management of radical innovation 17,18.
Concepts and Practice, E Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2008.19 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, Positioning future-oriented technology analysis, in:
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008.20 O. Da Costa, P. Warnke, C. Cagnin, F. Scapolo, The impact of foresight on policy-making:
F. Scapolo, A l. Porter, New methodolgical developments in FTA, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barré (Eds.
Future-oriented technology analysis. Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Heidelberg, 2008.33 R. Barré, M. Keenan, Revisiting foresight rationales:
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008.34 D. Loveridge, P. Street, Inclusive foresight, Foresight 7 (3)( 2005) 31 47.35 H. A. Linstone, Multiple perspectives:
Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment methodologies Raija Koivisto, Nina Wessberg, Annele Eerola, Toni Ahlqvist, Sirkku Kivisaari, Jouko Myllyoja, Minna Halonen VTT Technical research Centre of Finland
Received 17 november 2008 Received in revised form 11 june 2009 Accepted 15 july 2009 This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools,
with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis.
The common and complemeentar features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools. 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Foresight methodology Technology assessment Technology analysis Risk assessment Risk analysis Roadmapping 1. Introduction The practices in foresight, technology assessment and industrial risk assessment processes are in many ways parallel.
1) VTT is striving for a more integrated approach in developing its FTA competences and services,
and 2) there is a need to share the information with the international FTA COMMUNITY in order to further develop the ideas.
Development of an integrated approach that combines the strengths of FTA and risk assessment traditions is not,
Feedback from the international FTA COMMUNITY and cross-border cooperation is needed to direct the development efforts effectively,
Opening up a fruitful dialogue among the FTA researchers and professionals facilitates also mutual learning across the FTA and risk assessment communities.
which risk assessment and FTA METHODOLOGIES and tools can be integrated systematically on the basis of the VTT experiences.
and FTA PROCESSES. o Section 5 points out preliminary conclusions and directions for further research. 2. Methods of FTA and risk assessment 2. 1. The methods of future-oriented technology analysis Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) can be seen as a common
A tentative systemic framework of the potential FTA METHODS by Saritas 10 is shown in Fig. 2;‘
Altogether, a substantial shift away from the fixed modelling and management towards more contingent and participatory approaches has taken place in all FTA areas.
risk analysis is seen as one of the methods contributing to the FTA EXERCISES. Weak signal and Wild Card analyses for instance are used tools in risk analyses concerning the strategic design of societies or companies, e g. 43 45.
The next section illuminates the synergies between FTA and risk assessment methodologies by analysing the foresight design dimensions of three research projects. 3. Prospective projects illuminating possible synergies
and development challenges To study the integration of FTA and risk assessment some relevant projects were analysed.
and FTA PROCESS seeking common ground There are constitutive similarities between risk assessment and FTA PROCESSES. Both processes start with the scope definition/pre foresight phases,
Recruitment phase of the FTA is included also in the scope definition phase in risk assessment, when possible and relevant experts and stakeholders are collected.
The generation phase or the prognosis phase of the FTA PROCESS resembles the hazard/risk identification phase in risk assessment
The same kind of activity is happening in the FTA action phase. The ultimate meaning of this phase is to arrange the knowledge in such a form that it is easy to use in decision making.
Also the action proposal and risk reduction/control phases share similarities to the practices and activities in the FTA action or prescription phase.
The last phase of the FTA PROCESS namely the renewal phase is also present in the risk assessment process
In addition, business, policy making and the whole broad spectrum of decision making call for future-oriented technology analysis as well as risk assessment. Foresight methods and activities approve the uncertainty linked to the different futures
Fig. 5. The relationships between risk assessment and FTA METHODS according to the time frame and approach. 1172 R. Koivisto et al./
FTA or risk assessment processes can be very detailed processes focusing on certain area or place,
However the case projects show that there is potential in integrating the risk assessment and the FTA METHODOLOGIES.
In our view, the most promising benefit in integrating risk assessment and FTA APPROACHES seems to be the aspect of creating safety and opening up new future possibilities.
The holistic future-oriented technology assessment or foresight methodologies tend to assess and create the future simultaneously. The same idea belongs also to the holistic risk management where safety is created in the process by evolving the intrinsic safety potential of the process.
or take advantage of it. 5. Conclusions This paper has compared the basic characteristics of FTA and risk assessment processes,
in business and in the society in general is crucial for both FTA and risk assessment. There is, therefore, a common ground shared by both approaches.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 than the FTA PROCESS. In turn, there is a shift towards a more contingent approach also in risk assessment as is in FTA APPROACH.
Hence, fixed component by component way of doing the analysis may give place to other kinds of methods,
which is more common nowadays, for instance, in FTA APPROACH. Either way, both approaches may benefit methodologically from each other in developing better methods for assessing the futures.
For example, in case of emerging risks new methods applying the sufficient features of as well risk assessment as FTA APPROACHES are welcome.
In Table 2 the characteristics and typical processes and methods of risk assessment and future-oriented technology analyses, as well as future expectations concerning their development,
In general FTA APPROACH encourages to build new risk analysis techniques which are more capable of taken into consideration the longer time frames than have been common in risk analysis tradition before.
Risk assessment and management will benefit from the FTA APPROACH by gaining more holistic viewpoints. Due to the need of developing more holistic risk management processes responding the continuous change,
the future risk assessment shows up as a methodology that should increasingly adapt supplementary elements from many different approaches such as FTA.
When the contribution of FTA is emphasized on revealing technological changes and their impacts in the future, the contribution from other areas is needed also.
In the Book‘Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy',Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 25 40.2 T.,Könnölä, T.,Ahlqvist, A.,Eerola, S.,Kivisaari, R.,Koivisto
Risk assessment (focus on the context of industrial safety) Future-oriented technology analysis Aim To identify and assess risks now and in the future.
Her research relates to future-oriented technology assessment and innovation studies. Her special interest lies in enhancing innovations provoked by societal concerns for wellbeing of the aging society and for cleaner environment.
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management, Special issue FTA Seminar 2006,2008, pp. 369 387.19 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber, Adaptive foresight:
, Future-oriented technology analysis as a Driver of strategy and Policy, Technology analysis & Strategic management, vol. 20,2008, pp. 78 83,1. 21 K. Cuhls, Changes in conducting foresight in Japan, in:
Future-oriented technology analysis, Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008, pp. 71 87.23 F. Scapolo, A l. Porter, New methodological developments in FTA, in:
Future-oriented technology analysis, Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008, pp. 149 162.24 S. Kuhlmann, R. Smits, The rise of Systemic Instruments in Innovation policy, Int. Journal of Foresight
and Innovation policy, vol. 1, 2004, pp. 4 32,2/3. 25 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barré, Future-oriented technology analysis
and the participants of the 3rd International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis which took place in October 2008 for useful discussions and comments.
and workshop within a programme of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) in a nanotechnology research network called Frontiers. 3 The FTA ACTIVITIES in this network revolve around multi-(potential) stakeholder workshops where the aim is to explore the complex dynamics in and around specific areas of nanotechnology important for the Frontiers
and most of those that were the subject of this FTA exercise was what sort of stabilised governance structure would emerge
This is a key aspect of modern FTA-connecting complexities of ongoing innovations (and the conditions
Some of the implications (including opportunities) of infusing complexity into FTA practices will be discussed. 2. Prospecting innovation:
+8 Still the focus of technology developers in their FTA ACTIVITIES, focus on paths (such as roadmapping) rather than journeys.
The following section will bring us away from conceptual explorations to the real-world of FTA
or FTA mechanisms that are reflexive of the wider complexities of new and emerging technologies? Who should be involved and when?
Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas & Ian Miles (2009) Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 915-916, DOI:
8 november 2009,915 916 EDITORIAL Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making*Most of the papers in this special issue were presented at the Third International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) that took place in October 2008.
They address a wide variety of issues in FTA including methods and policy and governance impacts with discussions and demonstrations at the regional and corporate levels.
Weber et al. discusses the trade-offs between policy impacts of FTA with the experience gained from the innovation policy foresight
The above papers, a selected subset representing the themes1 of the 2008 FTA Conference offer a clear insight that smarter policy and corporate decision-making processes are needed to deal with recent crisis and the threat of discruptive changes.
Ozcan Saritas, Cristiano Cagnin, Attila Havas and Ian Miles Note 1. Reflecting the 2008 FTA Conference emphasis on impacts and implications of FTA for policy and decision making
1) Methods and tools contributing to FTA;(2) The use and impact of fta for policy and decision making;(
3) FTA in research and innovation;(4) FTA and equality: new approaches to governance; and (5) FTA in security and sustainability.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:08 03 december 2014
This article was downloaded by: University of Bucharest On: 03 december 2014, At: 05:09 Publisher: Routledge Informa Ltd Registered in England and Wales Registered Number:
1072954 Registered office: Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1t 3jh, UK Technology analysis & Strategic management Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:
http://www. tandfonline. com/loi/ctas20 Foresight and strategy in national research councils and research programmes Per Dannemand Andersen a & Mads Borup a a Department of Management Engineering, Technical University
Paper presented at the Second FTA Conference, 28 29 september, Sevilla, Spain. Keenan, M. 2003. Identifying emerging generic technologies at the national level:
Historical review of the development of future-oriented technology analysis. In Future-oriented technology analysis strategic intelligence for an innovative economy, ed. C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo,
and R. Barré, 17 24. Heidelberg: Springer verlag. Keenan, M. 2002. Using expert and stakeholder panels in technology foresight principles and practice.
FTA and the city: imagineering sustainable urban development. Paper presented at second international Seville seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 28-29 september 2006, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Seville, Spain.
Ringland, G. 2002. Scenarios in public policy. Chichester: Johnwiley. Sanz-Menéndez, L, . and C. Cabello. 2000.
Knowledge discovery in databases 1. Introduction How long does it take to provide a particular Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA?
Of particular note to FTA, the great science and technology (S&t) databases cover a significant portion of the world's research output.
A major impediment to the utilization of FTA results is their unfamiliarity to managers and policy-makers.
But, even more importantly, it familiarizes users with data-based technology analyses The manager who gets the prescribed FTA A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1071 outputs upon
Our QTIP setting presumes an organization with an established FTA framework. QTIP works where we know the sort of information we need.
our experience indicates that just providing the analytical tools to information professionals is unlikely to lead to effective FTA applications.
On the other hand, expanded information professional roles could enable their becoming full FTA team members 4. One way or another,
Collectively, the integration of the four QTIP factors results in a qualitative change in FTA.
enabling refinement of information searches that would drastically upgrade subsequent FTA work. These two examples reflect an essential difference.
Certainly, this btech miningq approach to quick technology analyses does not equally affect all forms of FTA.
This information can serve other FTA needs to various degrees:!Technology foresight Quick tech mining can help participants grasp the scope of technology development efforts.
but potentially very effective, support for these varied FTA endeavors. QTIP emphasizes speed in generating technology analyses.
and analytical tools to generate FTA more quickly. Its novelty lies in the approach to technology analyses in support of technology management.
Train the potential QTIP participants in use of the tools and resulting FTA outputs. A l. Porter/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1070 1081 1080 But it is worth the effort.
Introduction From priority-setting to societal challenges in future-oriented technology analysis Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is derived a term from a collective description given to the range of technology-oriented forecasting methods and practices by a group of futures researchers and practitioners
and which here operated under the FTA banner and, on the other hand, a dominance both in papers submitted and in taxonomic terms of the‘‘foresight''label.
In successive conferences conclusions have noted this tendency to regard FTA as the name of the conference
In the development of the FTA series the notion of user engagement was to grow stronger.
By the time of the second conference, the‘‘impact of fta approaches on policy and decision-making''had become the core theme
and emphasis was placed on the delivery of concrete and valued policy outcomes and impacts from FTA ACTIVITIES.
The experience of FTA suggests that then new term will only have currency in the space and time in
but crossed this with an interest in the evaluation of impacts and in the use of FTA in two domains, business and higher education 9, 10.
which to move forward which fell broadly into the categories of building the capacity and connectedness of the FTA COMMUNITY on the one hand and improving engagement with users on the other 11.
Such engagement would come from raising awareness of the benefits and limitations of FTA in part through improved monitoring and evaluation,
The 2008 FTA Conference continued the focus on the‘‘impacts and implications of FTA for policy and decision making''but this time constructed its themes and anchor papers differently.
For a conference that attracted 166 abstracts and accepted only 56 of them, there was always the opportunity for a rich vein of ideas to be mined.
Georghiou and Cassingena Harper set out the terrain for FTA, and more specifically for foresight, in terms of its inbuilt concern with research and innovation policy or strategy issues.
FTA APPROACHES are locked also in a spiral of co-evolution with research and innovation policy, finding new applications in aligning actors around societal challenges (as described by Ko nno la et al.)
Among FTA TOOLS foresight is posited as the most suitable for providing policy support to address major societal challenges.
They map FTA METHODS in terms of the ways in which they process information and deconstruct the scenario workshop process in detail to illustrate the organisational learning
They call for a better understanding of issues to be considered by the FTA COMMUNITY so that it can support the quest for new forms of governance.
Continuing the call for the FTA COMMUNITY to move on from identifying priorities, the paper concludes by advocating the need for embedding forward-looking participatory practices in overall processes of strategic policy and decision making.
Johnston and Cagnin review the main findings from a series of interviews about the status of FTA as an activity with nine personalities attending the FTA conference.
These mapped a picture of FTA as an increasingly important approach in many countries across a wide range of challenges.
Introduction/Futures 43 (2011) 229 231 230 In Spring 2011 the fourth FTA Conference will take place.
The conference will seek to understand further how far the institutionalisation (i e. embeddedness) of FTA supports both the achievement of measurable impacts and the strengthening of interaction s between research, higher education and innovation.
Moving forward the edition has shown FTA to be in a transitional stage brought about both by its internal dynamics and by the broader global environment.
FTA is a work in progress but represents a dynamic section of the futures community. References 1 Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis:
and the long wave, Futures 34 (3 4 april 2002) 317 336.5 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis the 2004 EU-US seminar, Technological forecasting
Concepts and Practice, Elgar, Cheltenham, 2007, pp. 24 43.9 F. Scapolo, A l. Porter, M. Rader, Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA:
impact on policy and decision-making the 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461.10 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R
. Johnston, Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (2008) 267 269.11 M. Keenan, R. Barre',C. Cagnin, Future-oriented technology analysis:
future directions in future-oriented technology analysis: future directions, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barre'(Eds.
Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 163 169.12 O. Saritas, C. Cagnin, A. Havas,
I. Miles, Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making, Technology analysis & Strategic management 21 (2009) 915 916.13 T. Ko nno la, J. Smith, A. Eerola, Introduction
, Future-oriented technology analysis impacts and implications for policy and decision making, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137.14 I. Nonaka, H. Takeuchi, The Knowledge-creating Company, Oxford university Press, Oxford
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