Daheim and Uerz 7 at the Second FTA Conference in Seville conference noted the emergence of open foresight as a trend,
A review for the 2006 FTA conference noted an increasing use of scenarios for the sector in the face of a number of pressures
status and impact of international future-oriented technology analysis, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barre'(Eds.
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, 2008.25 A. Havas, Devising futures for universities in a multilevel structure:
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, 2008.27 Department for Innovation, Universities & Skills, UK, Innovation White paper Innovation Nation, CM7345, March 2008.28 I. Rollwagen, J. Hofmann
Future-oriented technology analysis Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, 2008.33 L. Georghiou, Challenging Europe's research, Nature 452 (24)( 2008) 935 936.34 E. Aho, J. Cornu
55 Zhongguancun East Road, Beijing 100190, PR China 1. Introduction In the realm of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) 1 that encompasses foresight,
since 1970.6 FTA projects in China in broad sense can be traced to‘‘The 12 Years Science Development Planning''made in 1956,
Furthermore, in order to better address major societal challenges with foresight and other FTA ACTIVITIES we consider that another relevant future avenue might be to enhance the international foresight collaboration in terms of exchange of experiences and the implementation of common foresight projects.
References 1 JRC-IPTS, Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: impacts and implications for policy and decision making, in: The 2008 FTA International Seville Conference, 2009, available at:
http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/intro. html. 2009-11-10). 2 R. Smits, S. Kuhlmann, The Rise of systemic instruments
Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective A. Eerola A i. Miles b a VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Espoo, Finland b Manchester Institute of Innovation research, Manchester united Kingdom 1
. Introduction Future oriented technology analysis (FTA) is an umbrella term for a broad set of activities that facilitate decision-making and coordinated action, especially in science, technology and innovation policy-making.
In the last decade, FTA ACTIVITIES and in particular national and Regional foresight programmes have often been oriented to supporting the functioning and development of innovation systems.
and quite often non-governmental organisation and civil society stakeholders 1. FTA, especially in the form of Foresight programmes, has come to be applied in the form of a mutual learning process,
and this in turn implies that FTA necessarily involves knowledge management whether this is formally acknowledged or more implicit.
This knowledge management has to confront the challenges created by FTA's call for engagement across different disciplines, research traditions,
Available online 19 november 2010 A b s T R A c T Future oriented technology analysis (FTA) applied to innovation policy and practice often goes well beyond the narrow domain of technology forecasting.
Such FTA calls for crossing the boundaries of disciplines, research traditions, and professional activities FTA then necessarily involves knowledge management
(whether this be formal or implicit); and this knowledge management has to confront the challenges created by FTA's call for engagement across different
and across potentially competing corporate, sectoral, and public interests. This paper explores the consequences of this view of FTA
and how the roles of various FTA METHODS and tools are seen in terms of knowledge management. It goes on to discuss the implications that follow for FTA design,
and the methodological challenges, and requirements for development of tools, techniques and principles, for FTA. The challenges of participatory knowledge management are seen to be particularly important ones to tackle. 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd.*
*Corresponding author. E-mail addresses: Annele. Eerola@vtt. fi (A. Eerola), Ian. Miles@mbs. ac. uk (I. Miles.
10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.005 2. FTA and knowledge management Talking about FTA in terms of‘‘knowledge''may seem to risk dealing in oxymorons.
''But, brief reflection on FTA practice rapidly reveals that FTA is nevertheless very much a process that involves finding,
The whole point of FTA is to better inform our decisions, and this involves knowledge of historical and contemporary dynamics and developments,
and users of, the FTA PROCESS; posits can be organised in relation to, and compared with, others (including posits developed in other exercises),
Since FTA involves engaging with stakeholders or at least with the decision-makers that the exercise is intended to inform the scope of knowledge management (KM) has to extend 1 The application of evolutionary theory within theology has led to notions of an‘‘evolving god''(or gods) too,
In an FTA context, it is worth noting that an early proponent of this view was Olaf Stapledon,
It is startling how few systematic comparisons have been made about the consequences of employing specific techniques in the course of FTA. 3 It is striking that much of the work collected in Linstone
FTA has many faces and comes in many‘‘flavours'',drawing on many different research traditions and methods.
Practically any source of insight into the dynamics of science and technology (S&t) their production, communication, application can be utilised as knowledge inputs into FTA.
and so on are among the panoply of FTA METHODS. Indeed, each of the sets of tools just mentioned can be used in applications other than FTA in demographic forecasting,
in assessing market potentials, in various fields of applied social research. Many sorts of research tool can be sources of the insights required for FTA.
Other tools can help us visualise issues, make choices among competing priorities, and the like. We can point here to such approaches as risk assessment, roadmapping,
FTA's subfields include technology foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment, and of course futures research with its emphasis on explicating long-term alternative development prospects.
and methodological development of FTA 3 7. The result is a proliferation of tools. However the accumulation and integration of knowledge about different tools and approaches is very uneven.
Many (probably the great majority of) FTA practitioners are familiar with only a limited number of these tools.
But anecdotal evidence suggests that many FTA practitioners are simply reiterating the particular approaches with
and practice in FTA. But huge knowledge gaps are apparent, often stemming from the fact that much FTA work is conducted under pressure to provide results to inform urgent decisions.
This means that it is possible to reflect upon the lessons provided by this experience,
what has and has worked not well over a series of FTA experiences, than on more systematic accumulation of data about comparable cases, varying in terms of specific features.
Thus the FTA field itself resembles many of the challenging problems, which are the subject of FTA analysis. It is typical for decision-making about S&t-related issues to require intelligence that extends well beyond
what scientific analysis itself can provide. Weinberg 8 wrote of‘‘trans science''''the need for experts to go well beyond the conclusions that can be supported substantively by research and even by well-grounded theory,
in order to provide the sorts of advice decision-makers require. 5 FTA users and practitioners are in the same situation themselves,
where it comes to deciding what sort of FTA to apply. We can see learning processes at work in the successive generations of several National foresight programmes.
Similar conflicting forces will affect many smaller-scale FTA ACTIVITIES, in private organisations as well as in the policy sphere. 4 DEMATEL=decision making trial and evaluation laboratory, a structural modelling technique;
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 267 As with other practices, FTA ACTIVITIES involve several phases,
In the original formulation this is not specific to FTA, but Warden 31 has related Weick's activities of enactment,
They may be employed in later stages of a wider FTA PROCESS, which this activity is embedded in, in later FTA ACTIVITIES,
or in the organisations from which stakeholder participants have been drawn. Saritas (2007) provides a rathermore detailed account of five stages in FTA
expanding the first and third of the sensemaking steps (and the first and second of Horton's). He also suggests the tools
when we replace TF with FTA. A. Eerola, I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 268 Many of the individual methods may be associated with more than one of the five steps,
organisation and management of an FTA programme, including, in addition to standard project management methods, approaches needed for the selection, recruitment and mobilisation of participants in the process.
and even later stages involving the embedding of FTA practices and approaches.)The selection of methods is a task,
Some combination of methods that span these dimensions is recommended as helping maximise the scope for FTA to draw on expert knowledge,
while a large-scale FTA ACTIVITY may well encompass a sequence of steps that move around in Popper's diamond.
Classically FTA often involved the work of small expert groups or even solitary experts sitting at their desks engaged in‘‘genius forecasting''.
which is not to deny that can be very helpful inputs to wider FTA. These approaches assume that one person,
Occasionally we may see some broader overview coming from such sources often on the basis of the authors having absorbed a great deal of FTA thinking from other sources such as Naisbitt's Megatrends
The quality control mechanism for popular FTA literature are practically nonexistent, and it would be valuable
if FTA practitioners could develop more rapid and effective ways of directing attention to the well-grounded
and‘‘fully fledged foresight''as an ideal, 8 FTA often involves much wider engagement and involvement of stakeholders,
a matter of participatory democracy as commonly understood though such FTA could be an important contributor to establishing more deliberative democracy in S&t policy areas that have on account of the expert knowledge associated with them historically been dominated by vested interests and technocratic elites.
The widening of participation in FTA reflects important social developments, and serves several associated goals (see e g. 12).
Even technocratic FTA has to confront the likelihood that no single organisation will itself contain expertise on all of the matters that bear intimately on a specific set of S&t issues it will be necessary to go out to a wider set of communities.
Several factors have combined to make this more salient in contemporary FTA. Perhaps the least important but quite possibly a factor whose importance will grow in coming years is the rise of public concerns and associated social movements around many S&t issues.
Two other factors have probably been more significant in RECENT FTA, however. One is need the to avoid alienating the scientific and engineering professions,
FTA ACTIVITIES aimto informdecisions that will help shape, or adapt to, future circumstances, providing and working with relevant knowledge to build capabilities for better action.
or influential members from key organisations, engaged in the FTA PROCESS means that they can develop a much deeper understanding of the process itself,
The deeper understandingmeans that when contingencies change as they almost certainly will the participant will be able to assess their implications for the FTA conclusions and for the orientations of other actors.
butwill be carriers of this FTA knowledge into their own organisations, working to create decisions
and in designing the FTA PROCESS it may be effective to appoint very senior members of key organisations to steering or advisory committees,
Design of the FTA PROCESS also depends on its specific objectives: FTA PROCESSES striving for consensus differ from those welcoming diverse views on future developments;
Furthermore, adaptation to new opportunities and needs might be needed during the FTA PROCESS 14,15 A. Eerola,
FTA is liable to involve large volumes of information that can be processed through such TKM systems.
FTA ACTIVITIES necessarily involve, in a very central position, engaging knowledgeable agents, and deploying the knowledge
and that are generated during the FTA PROCESS. Several influential approaches to KM and organisational learning have emerged in recent years
including FTA ACTIVITIES. The four steps, captured under the label SECI (socialisation, externalisation, combination and internalisation) represent a knowledge cycle undertaken in the course of organisational learning.
what takes place in FTA, even if the four knowledge conversion modes in the Nonaka model do not correspond precisely with the three steps of Horton and Weick,
a more practical distinction in the context of FTA would perhaps be the distinction between knowing individuals
This emphasis is highly relevant for FTA. Individual actors in FTA organise information in ways that are relevant to their purposes practical problems, conceptual challenges,()TD$FIG Knowledge Information Knowledge Socialisation:
Transfer of knowledge between people (through interaction rather than mediated through captured information) Externalisation: Capturing people's knowledge by rendering it as documents or structured processes Informationinternalisation:
Good FTA practice will make it easy for later users of the work to assess the validity of its knowledge base
and so on as is the case for many of the core topics that FTA addresses design of such texts can be very challenging.
The idea that knowledge development takes place through a (typically clockwise) multi-cycle spiral movement through these different SECI cycle categories is a powerful heuristic for explicating FTA EXERCISES and activities.
When the FTA PROCESS involves a wide range of key actors in the case of the Nordic H2 energy foresight coming from several countries there are special challenges confronted in shared knowledge creation (even in agreeing upon which of Bell's‘‘posits''to explore
The design and planning of the FTA can be interpreted as the preliminary‘‘S''phase of the knowledge cycle.
and lists of tasks that appear in different accounts of FTA, we might need to think of any large-scale FTA ACTIVITY as likely to involve several intertwined SECI processes that go iteratively through the various transformation phases in a spiral-like process.
The complexity of FTA PROCESSES means that they can involve application of similar techniques for different purposes, at different points in the foresight knowledge cycle.
thus happening at the same time as the FTA PROCESS proceeded to the next circles of the externalisation and combination phases.
We can even see some of the more ambitious FTA METHODS as themselves involving several or most of the knowledge conversion phases of the SECI spiral.
in order to illustrate the relevance of thekmapproach even in the context of individual/specific FTA METHODS. 6. Scenario workshops as knowledge processes Scenario workshops typically feature a sequence of activities.
or feed into a wider ongoing FTA exercise. A major task will be to move other parties through their own knowledge cycles,
Thus the scenario workshop is in many ways a microcosm of a larger FTA programme.
Several rounds of the SECI processes are needed usually to accomplish the required steps of the FTA ACTIVITY.
posits about FTA FTA can be examined from many several perspectives. Here we have related methods in FTA to knowledge and knowledge management issues.
Even a cursory examination of the KM literature will confirm several things. This is an expanding field (with elements of fashion and faddishness.
Miles et al. 23 discuss numerous ways in which new IT is liable to be employed in FTA in coming years.
Social learning and‘‘PKM''elements of FTA can be augmented by use of IT, though this may require careful design
Again, the design of FTA needs to take into account the needs of KM and the objectives that we have for various activities in terms of generating
and procedures to be used in FTA EXERCISES will find ways of building in and even enhancing time and opportunity for such encounters.
Perhaps we should be establishing a roadmap for this sort of‘‘enhanced reality''in FTA work. 10
I. Miles/Futures 43 (2011) 265 278 275 One of the biggestkmchallenges that confront FTA,
and statistical analysis and less use of qualitative workshops and judgements that comes from some parts of the FTA user community.
Serious FTA recognises that we can apply formal modelling to some features of the complex systems we encounter,
Most FTA practitioners recognise this and most FTA EXERCISES use multiple methods: the way in which methods are combined
and integrated is a topic richly deserving of further research. The problems arise when participants in,
and users of, FTA EXERCISES are confronted with the different methods and sorts of knowledge and posits that result from them.
FTA practitioners thus confront the problematique of diverse social goals and power arrangements, whether they would rather avoid it(‘‘we are simply serving our immediate client)
though as much for technocratic reasons as for more democratic ones (leading to criticisms that this sort of FTA fails to explore prospects for radical social change,
In terms of how knowledge is assessed in FTA, a number of points can be made. Experts (engineers, designers, social analysts, political actors) are seen as possessing particularly valued-and sometimes privileged knowledge.
While the recent expansion in the FTA methodological literature is enabling us to say a good deal more about how methods can be used,
we do not know how far the quality of FTA EXERCISES is impaired, and whether or how far such factors are influencing key results and outcomes.
One strategy might be to seek to accompany FTA EXERCISES with companion activities in which issue was taken with core assumptions,
In addition to the general point about the need to integrate FTA and risk assessment approaches (see 24),
and SF authors. 13 These are only two of many examples of lively debate being occasioned by efforts to bring FTA METHODS to bear on issues that have already been the subject of influential FTA studies.
and collaborative modelling approaches are creating opportunities for much broader engagement in FTA ACTIVITIES. This will pose considerable challenges for KM:
FTA may be expected to be transformed in the coming years. Existing methods will be rendered‘‘democratised more transparent and user-friendly while new tools that support collaborative working will be introduced.‘‘
‘‘Open-source foresight''and‘‘Open-source FTA''might be the terms by which this sort of KM becomes known15 but that is up to the wisdom (or otherwisej) of crowds.
References 1 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, Positioning future-oriented technology analysis, in: C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barre'(Eds.
Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008.2 W. Bell, J. K. Olick, An epistemology for the futures field:
toward integration of the field & new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (3)( 2004) 287 303.4 R. Johnston, Historical review of the development of future-oriented technology analysis, in:
Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008.5 M. Rader, A. Porter, Fitting future-oriented analysis methods to study types, in:
Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy,, Springer, Berlin, 2008.6 I. Miles, From Futures to Foresight, in:
the case of‘Future',Seville, First International EU US Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, 2004 (available at http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta/papers
and much more content of the study can be located by use of search engines including the presentation made at the FTA conference in 2006 43.14 We refer to Cole et al. 44,
Integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies, Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176.25 Advisory Group on Nanotechnology, New dimensions for manufacturing:
I. Maghiros, S. Delaitre, Dark scenarios as a constructive tool for future oriented technology analysis: safeguards in a world of ambient intelligence (SWAMI), Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville, September 28 29,2006 (available at:
http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/documents/papers/paper%20dark%20scenarios%20fta%20conf%20sept. pdf (accessed 29/07/09). 44 H. S d
FTA and equity: New approaches to governance Cristiano Cagnin a,,*Denis Loveridge b, Ozcan Saritas b adg Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Calle Inca Garcilaso 3, 41092 Seville, Spain
b Manchester Institute of Innovation research, United kingdom 1. Introduction The paper addresses Future-oriented technology analyses (FTA) in the context of the issues that ought to be considered for its application to support the quest for new forms of governance embracing governments, wider
Setting a new landscape for FTA ACTIVITIES around the concept of governance, is the aim of the paper while shedding some light on the issues
which ought to be addressed by the FTA COMMUNITY with the aim of supporting new forms of governance.
and use of FTA in the public sector there has been substantial growth in foresight and FTA in business.
However, the discussion about multiple stakeholders'participation in public policy and corporate decision making has received very little attention from the FTA COMMUNITY who have taken for granted that FTA ACTIVITIES are participative.
Available online 26 november 2010 A b s T R A c T FTA and equity addresses the need for multiple stakeholders'participation in public policy and corporate decision making thus leading to more democratic societies.
The current paper addresses Future-oriented technology analyses (FTA) in the context of a better understanding of issues that ought to be considered by the FTA COMMUNITY
Analysis of the relationship between governance and each of the three pillars poses a number of questions to the FTA COMMUNITY that reflect on the potential impacts of FTA ACTIVITIES in governance.
Setting a new landscape for the FTA, the paper concludes with those issues where the FTA COMMUNITY is starting to devote attention,
The later discussion intends to enable the FTA COMMUNITY to reflect on how FTA ACTIVITIES can support the move towards more democratic societies and the potential impacts of FTA in governance.
The paper concludes with those issues in which the FTA COMMUNITY is starting to devote attention to as well as those it still ought to consider. 2. History Governance is an outcome of the continual battle between risk and regulation.
The link with FTA is obvious. It leads towards a notion of an extended role for FTA in a world where new forms of governance are growing from the emergence of the combined phenomena of globalisation
and glocalisation and to the need to anticipate the future needs to manage risk and regulation.
'The role of FTA, as it affects human and natural life, has a pivotal role to play in assuring the continuation of human rights, freedom, democracy and privacy, all of
These methods have to be seen in the context systems thinking of which they are all sub-sets as are the methods that accompany any future oriented technology analysis.
The foregoing review is intended only to place FTA ACTIVITY in context. It is as well to remember Wittgenstein's claim that‘methods pass the problem situation by.'
How FTA ACTIVITY can support such moves must be set against the three pillars of corporate industrial activity, sociocultural evolution and government interests,
However, the current practices of the FTA are not deep enough to understand and intervene in these transformed systems.
Current FTA does not go beyond the application of certain methods which are rooted in technological forecasting
although it is claimed that FTA ACTIVITIES are inclusive, but the‘quality'of such inclusion is arguable.
Consequently, FTA has to transform itself too.‘‘‘‘What then can FTA learn from this transformation?''
''is the main question this paper raises by describing the new governance landscape which can be represented by a Venn diagram with a triangle at the centre of the three intersecting systems (Fig. 1). 4. Social-cultural evolution The growing need for a better
and illustrate how FTA is embedded in the background to the influences globalisation and glocalisation on the three pillars of corporate and industrial activity,
FTA in support of new forms of governance Governance methods and systems have not been institutionalised on a broad and continuous basis possibly
Hence, it is important to reflect on how FTA METHODS and processes could support a move towards genuine governance and thus a more democratic society.
the latter poses a number of questions which need to be addressed such as how do FTA METHODS and processes address the complex issue of literacy asymmetries of different stakeholders?
How can FTA strategies and methods make sure that the visions of different stakeholders can be represented harmonised
How far would public and private leadership literacy as well as building citizens'capacity in FTA METHODS and processes lead to more participation in overall decision making?
7. 1. FTA for public decision making Actors affected by innovation processes ought to be involved more in technological development,
Therefore it is critical to reflect on how FTA METHODS and process contribute to governance modes that are more responsive to risk society perceptions, values and apprehensions.
Above all, how do FTA METHODS and process contribute to such governance modes? The conditions for democratic governance of technology and innovation need to be acknowledged
At the same time, which FTA METHODS and processes could contribute to enlarge societal participation in development strategies (at local, regional, national and international levels?
7. 2. FTA for corporate decision making The challenges faced by corporations reflect the structural changes taking place in the economy and society.
In this context, corporations have used FTA to detect and prepare responses to challenges which have arisen due to:
It then becomes critical to understand how FTA practices can support the need to choose which social issues to pursue strategically on a participative, consensus-oriented and inclusive way
however, is to understand how FTA can support companies in anticipating impacts which are recognised not yet well
One of the main challenges for the FTA COMMUNITY is to support such a shift by embedding forward-looking participatory practices into strategic decision making. 8. Conclusions:
a new role for FTA The new role this paper suggests for FTA brings with it issues
Any new mantra for FTA needs to recognise the obsolescence of the conventional mantra of invention and innovation as primary supports to‘growth'economics.
should be part of any new mantra for FTA. Throughout it should be remembered that invention and scientific breakthrough are pseudo-random, if not totally random events in time and nature.
The move towards a new mantra for FTA is shyly and slowly being shaped since, at least, the Second International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (September 2006.
The greater acknowledgement of the co-evolution of technology and society, as well as the claim that FTA practices should be submitted to interpretation of their significance by the relevant disciplines of the social sciences
and humanities (SSH), has been pivotal in this move since it led to the understanding that FTA ACTIVITIES,
and its umbrella communities, should adopt necessarily more complex perspectives. Long term and systemic analysis are key characteristics of FTA,
which explicitly deals with complex socio-technical systems and science society relationships. FTA is also an agenda-setting process aimed at providing anticipatory intelligence as basis for decision making.
At the same time it allows for the construction of common visions and produces issue-specific knowledge through dialogue,
Not surprisingly, FTA has relevance in all human activities where there are collective stakes 43. In the 2006 FTA Conference, the FTA COMMUNITY realised the need to address the imperative of improving the two-way linkage between knowledge and the building of a‘common world'.
'To do so a vivid debate took place in trying to grasp the C. Cagnin et al./
The ability of the FTA COMMUNITY to garner sufficient credibility, legitimacy and authority to contribute to such global agendas is still a concern.
At the same time, the contribution and intervention of FTA on global issues still needs to be conceptualised better to enable the community to take action.
To sum up, the way forward may be for FTA to recognise that it can play an important role in a complex world in which globalisation
It does so by indicating that the time has come for the FTA COMMUNITY to go beyond the current major focus of identifying
FTA can fulfil its role of supporting actors in society in shaping a common future based on a shared vision among all concerned.
), Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for An Innovative economy, Springer, 2008. C. Cagnin et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 291
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