R&d Canada, 305 Rideau St.,8th Floor, CJ02 Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1a 0k2 1. Introduction One of the recurring items of feedback from previous FTA Symposia
Futures experts (attendees of the FTA 2008 Conference) were invited to state their opinions on these questions by considering the trends, drivers, wilds cards,
The originators of this survey used the responses to lead a plenary discussion at the 2008 FTA Conference,
/O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 297 3. Big Picture Survey 3. 1. Motivation and approach Up until the Future-oriented technology analysis
(FTA) 2008 Conference, previous FTA meetings tended to focus on methodology, policy linkages and success factors for Foresight design & delivery.
The Scientific Committee of the FTA 2008 Conference heard that some attendees felt that an opportunity had been missed to discuss future Foresight determinants
1. The FTA COMMUNITY is one of the most capable assemblies of Strategic foresight expertise, and would it not be useful to poll this group for Foresight insights?
2. Building on a survey of FTA Conference attendees-experts about critical trends, drivers, shocks-wildcards, discontinuities and weak signals, new insights can be gained about the state of Foresight and future uncertainties,
106 (about 50%of FTA Conference attendees; Respondent Distribution Charts by: years of experience, country of residence and affiliation;(
Comparison of FTA COMMUNITY insights-domains content with others sources of Foresight trends, drivers, etc. Table 1 STEEP map for the Domains of Interest.
comprising more than a quarter of the total of all respondents clear evidence of the substantial experience present at the FTA Conference.
Lots of focus on Society and Culture=a well balanced orientation for a FTA audience; Provocative elements explored:
and insights that can be used to guide future Foresight work and additional FTA surveys of this type or building upon this base.
Our primary conclusion is that it will be very useful to repeat the survey with FTA 2010 if possible,
The influence of future-oriented technology analysis: Addressing the Cassandra challenge§Ron Johnston a,,*Cristiano Cagnin b a Australian Centre for Innovation, Australia b European commission, DG Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Spain‘‘Cassandra was a daughter of Hecuba
''1 1 1. Evaluating FTA in the light of recent events This paper is based on a series of interviews with nine leading researchers.
The setting for the interviews was the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference organised by the EU Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technology studies (IPTS) in Seville in October 2008.
‘‘in the light of recent events, do you believe this indicates FTA has failed (for example to foresee the possibility of the global financial crisis),
or that we need more FTA''.''The responses reflected both the power and limitations of FTA,
and the context in which it operates. For some, the events have been moved so complex so fast,
Available online 19 november 2010 A b s T R A c T This paper is based on a series of interviews with nine leading researchers conducted during the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville
Analysis of these interviews paints a picture of FTA as an increasingly important approach being adopted in many countries to address the many challenges which are emerging at this time in human history.
From this are drawn implications for the community of FTA practitioners. The biggest challenge is to achieve
and demonstrate a greater impact of fta studies. Otherwise the views of the possible futures that await us may continue to go largely unheard and unheeded
§This paper is based on interviews with nine leading FTA researchers conducted during the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville on October 16 17,2008.
The interviewees were selected on the basis of their long experience with FTA, and the variety of their experience and perspectives.
since the 2006 International Seville FTA Conference had seen significant development in FTA capacity across many countries and regions:‘‘
''2. Impact of fta Establishing and evaluating the impact of fta has emerged as a major preoccupation for the field in recent years,
with the recognition that demonstrating impact is probably the greatest hurdle to the wider acceptance and use of FTA.
A paper by Calof and Smith at the 2008 International Seville FTA Conference 3 concludes‘‘methodology,
appropriate budget and techniques alone are insufficient to result in foresight program success. To be regarded as successful,
Hence, some FTA outputs may enter the reservoir of knowledge where it may be drawn on at some time in the future.
'2 but there is also value in selecting topics that are likely to arouse strong interest. 3 The challenge for high impact FTA is to select issues that have both a long time horizon,
Itmust be recognised that significant limitations on the impact of fta liewith the receptors. Inmany countries government officials have been largely resistant to the concept and value of FTA.
It does not fit easily with established public administration procedures and protocols. It can present a particular challenge to those with responsibilities to identify,
Hence a major challenge for the next generation of FTA is to shift the emphasis of training from capacity building in performing FTA
and more towards developing a general non-expert awareness of the value of FTA, through courses embedded in school and university curricula,
and benefits of FTA and to help build an FTA culture across society through awareness raising''.
''This diffusion process will be aided by the further development of an‘FTA industry'.'An important lesson for strengthening the impact of fta was drawn fromthe evaluation literature.
In this field a distinction has been developed between summative evaluation, focussed on measuring impact, and normative evaluation,
and should be pursued, there is a case that at this stage of the evolution of FTA,
the greater emphasis should be on improving the processes that influence impact. 3. The contribution of the FTA Conference A particular feature of the FTA Conference series is that it‘‘acts as a magnet to bring people interested in FTA together
R. Johnston, C. Cagnin/Futures 43 (2011) 313 316 314 The first FTA Conference in 2004 gathered predominantly the EU-US community together to take stock of the developments
and explore future needs for FTA. The focus of the Conference was on foresight, technology forecasting and technology assessment methods and tools.
and had a special emphasis on the delivery of policy outcomes and impacts from FTA ACTIVITIES on policy and decision-making processes.
and Technology analysis & Strategic management 8. The large number of papers submitted in 2008 is an indication both of the central role the FTA Conference has come to play, principally for European researchers but also increasingly for researchers from around the world,
and of the demand for opportunities to report FTA work. A substantial number of new researchers have emerged
apparently recognising that FTA provides an umbrella for the activities they are interested in. Hence it is not just a matter of new researchers entering FTA,
as much as researchers in various other fields identifying with and migrating to the FTA field.
In this scenario, several new applications of FTA have been identified 9. It is important to highlight that an effective Conference can provide a‘showcase'of the field,
providing an opportunity to display and talk up the latest FTA wares to those who may have need a to apply them.
To this end, it is crucial in the future to design and organise the next Conference and its publicity so there is maximum opportunity for those who might apply FTA to their policy
-and decision-making to attend and learn about the latest advances in and applications of FTA.
This would suggest the need for continuing evolution of the format of the conference so as to engage policy-makers directly with issues in
The focus of two sessions of the 2008 FTA Conference on security and sustainability may be a useful first move in this direction.
and in all components of public and private decision-making. 4. Conclusions The interviews conducted as a component of the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville on 16 17 october 2008 provide a clear insight into the current state of the FTA
however, do not imply an automatic rise in the use of foresight or FTA TOOLS. Many decision-makers remain ignorant of or unpractised with these tools,
There is therefore an urgent need for even greater efforts to inform decision-makers of the potential value of FTA APPROACHES.
A clear demonstration of high-impact FTA studies such as the UK coastal flooding 10 and obesity reports 11,
and persuading decision-makers of the value of FTA APPROACHES. This signals a need for the major focus of FTA to be moved from the twin goals of methodology refinement
and capacity building towards a much greater emphasis on achieving highly visible and well documented impact.
the FTA COMMUNITY, be able to escape from the curse of Cassandra to speak the truth, or at least to be able to present a picture of plausible possible futures,
and in supporting the linkage between the analysis of the interviews with the overall results of the 2008 FTA Conference.
FTA Conference, Seville, 2008.3 J. Calof, J. Smith, Critical success factors for government led foresight, in:
Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference, Seville, October, 2008, accessible at: http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/prog day1. html. 4 F. Scapolo, E. Cahill, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis, in:
Proceedings of the EU-US Scientific Seminar: New technology Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, 2004, European communities Technical Report EUR 21473 EN. 5 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis:
The 2004 EU-US Seminar, Technological forecasting and Social Change 72 (9)( 2005. 6 Cagnin, et al.
), Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin, 2008.7 F. Scapolo, A l. Porter, M. Rader, Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA:
impact on policy and decision making The 2006 FTA INTERNATIONAL SEVILLE SEMINAR, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (4)( 2008.
8 J. C. Harper, K. Cuhls, L. Georghiou, R. Johnston, Future-oriented technology analysis as a driver of strategy and policy, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008.
9 2008 FTA Conclusions written by the Conference's Scientific Committee available at: http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/conclusions. html. 10 UK Foresight programme, Flood and Coastal Defence, 2004, http://www. foresight. gov
. uk/Ourwork/Completedprojects/Flood/index. asp. 11 UK Foresight programme, Tackling Obesities: Future Choices, 2007, http://www. foresight. gov. uk/Ourwork/Activeprojects/Obesity/Obesity. asp.
Guest editorial FTA break new ground in response to grand challenges Vicente Carabias, Peter De Smedt and Thomas Teichler Abstract Purpose This Guest Editorial aims
to demonstrate the diversity of application fields in which FTA METHODS are being used and to offer a glimpse into possible consequences that grand challenges may imply for the development of FTA.
Design/methodology/approach This introductory paper provides an overview of selected FTA 2011 Conference contributions for this Special issue.
Findings FTA APPROACHES create spaces where an effective dialogue between key players in different policy domains facilitates vision-building
and consensus-building for engineering major processes of transformation. Therefore sound approaches of futures thinking will help to better address the grand challenges.
Research limitations/implications From a large set of excellent papers presented at the FTA 2011 Conference, only a restricted number of papers could be included in this Special issue highlighting the broad diversity of FTA application fields in response to grand challenges.
Practical implications FTA can contribute not only to the steering of diverse innovation systems, but also to their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to grand challenges.
Social implications The papers of this Special issue point to the need for FTA to take into account user perspectives
and to shape the social context. Originality/value This Special issue brings together papers that explore not only the opportunities
and limitations of implementing FTA METHODS in a variety of policy domains, but also their benefits in enabling a better understanding of complex systems that interact in each situation and in defining effective policy responses.
Keywords Future-oriented technology analysis, FTA, Grand challenges, Forward looking activities T oday's grand challenges from climate change to unemployment go beyond current national policies.
The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) held in May 2011 illustrated the existing variety of FTA APPROACHES to address structural
and systemic transformations in a diversity of application fields responding to grand challenges. The presentations comprised themes surrounding creative futures, energy, governance, health, horizon scanning, innovation and sustainability, law, mobility, nanotechnology, and others.
All contributions had in common that they were calling for appropriate forms of FTA to support
In this context, this introductory paper provides an overview of selected FTA 2011 conference contributions and the diversity of application fields in
which FTA METHODS are being used. Moreover while some researchers combine established FTA METHODS, others bring in insights from new disciplines
or techniques that originated in other disciplines. Thereby, they provide important insights to an epistemological debate that is based on the premise that qualitative and quantitative methods are hardly reconcilable.
Finally, the papers point to the need for FTA to take into account user perspectives and to shape the social context.
Germany. implementing FTA METHODS but also their benefits in enabling a better understanding of complex systems which interact in each situation and in defining effective policy responses.
Furthermore, FTA APPROACHES create spaces where an effective dialogue between key players in different policy domains facilitates vision-building
FTA techniques need to embrace different perspectives including those considered impossible now and to provide a holistic view.
therefore, explores selected elements of complexity theory and their implications for FTA techniques, and later derives implications for the application of foresight in policy-making.
the article explains the various benefits that the application of specific FTA methodological approaches (such as scenario planning,
The article also examines the prospective perils that systematically applying FTA to Law may bring about.
While the introduction of FTA TOOLS and techniques to Law is deemed extremely important and useful the paper also draws attention to the problems
To sum up, the articles in this special issue demonstrate a variety of FTA application fields and offer a glimpse onto possible consequences that grand challenges may imply for the development of FTA in the coming years.
The scale and direction of innovation is determined by a mix of factors, many specific to a national domain though increasingly less so,
FTA can contribute not only to the steering of innovation systems, but also to their adjustment, adaptability and ability to shape responses to grand challenges.
A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS for transport planning Jens Schippl and Torsten Fleischer Abstract Purpose As in other socio-technical fields, future-oriented technology analysis (FTA METHODS are used in transport planning
In this paper, a transparent and problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS is suggested. It aims at supporting an appropriate usage of FTA METHODS in planning processes.
Design/methodology/approach A literature review carried out in context of the EU funded transport project OPTIC (see www. optic. toi. no) reveals that differentiating between different types of uncertainty is possible.
This sets the basis for the problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS. Key criteria for the categorisation of methods are their abilities in dealing with different types of missing knowledge.
Originality/value The paper has a novel approach for structuring FTA techniques that goes beyond the traditional quantitative/qualitative approach.
It juxtaposes a problem typology and a typology of methods Keywords FTA METHODS, Transport planning, Risks, Uncertainties, Unintended effects, Uncertainty management,
and methods that can be allocated to the field of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA, see Scapolo and Porter (2008) for an overview).
In Cagnin and Keenan (2008, p. 4) it is emphasised that FTA is based on principles such as future orientation, evidence, multiplicity of perspectives,
Even if FTA METHODS are applied, it can be observed, however, that in many cases transport policy and its projected outcomes are considered highly controversial.
So, a broad range of rather different FTA METHODS is used in transport planning to improve the quality, robustness and legitimacy of decisions.
But this typology is assumed to be helpful for a categorisation of FTA METHODS. We argue that it is crucial to understand to what extent the different FTA TOOLS
and methods are able to address these types of knowledge. In the following chapter a categorisation is introduced that helps to better understand the limits and potentials of tools and methods for addressing knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns.
All FTA METHODS focus on different aspects of the web of nodes. They either systematically cut out a certain area of the web
All gains and losses thought to be relevant are measured in the same units to enable Table II Categorisation of FTA METHODS Structurally open methods Structurally closed methods No fixed setting Predefined setting Mainly explorative More or less clear understanding of relevant
and Figure 1 Appropriate FTA METHODS for addressing different types of knowledge PAGE 288 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 help to turn such unknowns into knowns.
and structurally closed methods is to support an appropriate usage of the FTA TOOLS in transport planning.
A positive example for a careful application and integration of results of different FTA METHODS is the development of the European commissions (Commission of the European communities, 2008)‘‘Action Plan for the deployment of Intelligent Transport Systems''(ITS.
Notable on this assessment is its deliberate use of various FTA METHODS. For example, different scenarios were developed; models were used for quantitative assessments.
This sets the basis for the problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS which was introduced above. In this paper, FTA METHODS were discussed in relation to the concepts‘‘structurally open''and‘‘structurally closed''.
''The key argument is closed that methods are rather usable in situations where the system under consideration can reliably be described
Such a problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS supports a better understanding of the potentials of different methods.
Cagnin, C. and Keenan, M. 2008),‘Positioning future-oriented technology analysis'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analyses.
Scapolo, F. and Porter, A l. 2008),‘New methodological developments in FTA'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analyses:
‘‘embracing emergence''can be seen as very different to many FTA techniques. Horizon scanning for example focuses is on the possible results
The application of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) to law: the cases of legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement Norberto Nuno Gomes de Andrade Abstract Purpose This paper seeks to propose the application of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) to law.
As law traditionally reacts after events and is resistant to change and transformation, the article argues for equipping legal activities with a set of tools,
and academic programmes that are already employing FTA methodological approaches to pursue their objectives. Findings Based on these examples
the article explains the various benefits that the application of specific FTA methodological approaches (such as scenario planning,
The article also examines the prospective perils that systematically applying FTA to law may bring about.
While the introduction of FTA TOOLS and techniques to law is deemed extremely important and useful, the paper also draws attention to the problems
It proposes the application of future-oriented analysis (FTA) as a common umbrella term that encompasses foresight, forecasting and technology assessmentmethods and tools to the legal sphere.
It proposes the application of future-oriented analysis (FTA) as a common umbrella term that encompasses foresight
forecasting and technology assessment methods and tools to the legal sphere. 2. Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA)‘‘Future-oriented technology analysis''(FTA) was created the term to encompass the different tools
through the FTA overarching concept and a series of sponsored biennial seminars 4, has provided a common place and platform where various communities dealing with different aspects of future envisioning (such as technology foresight,
''As a comprehensive term, FTA is anchored firmly‘‘in the relation between science and technology on the one hand,
In conceptual terms, the dialogue and the literature produced under the FTA common umbrella term have contributed greatly to the distinction and articulation of the many different methods,
In addition, this particular community of scholars and practitioners has managed also to provide a collective definition of FTA,
FTA, in this respect, has provided not only a common framework through which to define, distinguish and articulate the growing number of instruments, approaches and procedures,
devising a set of principles that define their fundamental characteristics. 3. Law and FTA: case studies 3. 1 Introduction FTA ACTIVITIES, techniques and research have registered an impressive growth over the past decade.
In this respect, Saritas (2011) comments that‘‘a s the complexity of societies has increased, the scope of FTA ACTIVITIES has widened to cover a wide variety of issues.
This has been mainly due to the increasing importance of technological and organisational innovation; the development of service economies;
''Furthermore, the number of studies focused on the connection between FTA and the field of social sciences and humanities has increased substantially (Barre'and Keenan, 2008.
Cagnin and Keenan (2008) have called attention to the need for a wider examination of FTA TOOLS and approaches.
They believe‘‘t hese will provide a variety of interpretative lenses that offer the possibility to expand our conceptualisation of FTA,
) Despite these important developments and recommendations, little has been said about the interlinkages between Law and FTA.
In the wide spectrum of sectors, areas, disciplines and contexts to which FTA has been applied and developed,
which FTA should be examined, and would propose that their conceptualisation be expanded to the legal sphere.
one could say that FTA has already been applied to the legal context. This application, however
FTA, in this way, has been used to provide advice and to support the political decision-making process 6 which,
Despite the influence that the utilisation of FTA TOOLS may exert on the finally enacted laws,
In the following sections, a series of initiatives (existing and/or prospective) regarding the application and use of specific FTA TOOLS and approaches In law, namely to legal research,
moreover a methodological approach that comprises two important FTA TOOLS: Delphi studies and scenario planning. In the following section,
Scenario planning constitutes one of the most common FTA METHODS used in future studies 10, as it allows experts in foresight to define their own visions of the future,
as it opens the doors to the application of other FTA TOOLS to legal research, combining qualitative with quantitative methods 14.3.3 Legislative drafting 3. 3. 1 Futurict.
In effect, the use of modelling systems corresponds to one of the most recent trends in FTA.
At a more general level, the increasing availability of information in electronic form and the computing techniques and processes for exploiting such data constitute the most recent methodological developments in the field of FTA.
Futurict and the wide spectrum of ICT improvements and applications that this project encompasses constitute a good example of the new generation of methodological developments that is shaping FTA.
and relevance given to ICT tools in FTA illustrate, moreover, how the techniques used to envision the future have grown in complexity and sophistication. 3. 3. 2‘‘Future-verification''assessments.
''the obligation to perform‘‘future-verification''assessments of longstanding laws may be seen as a possible example of FTA instruments
and officer safety alike. 4. Discussion 4. 1 Advantages of using FTA in law The FTA METHODS
legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement is only now adopting some of these FTA TOOLS. In this way, the benefits of a more encompassing and systematic application of fta to the legal sphere are yet to be uncovered
''In this sense, FTA should not only be integrated into legal culture, but also into legal academic curricula. In this respect, it is interesting to note that the famous H g wells,
Regarding specific FTA TOOLS, survey approaches such as the Delphi methodology used by the LOFT project carry specific benefits to Law.
Furthermore, the methodological integration of scenario planning with other FTA TOOLS also promises to bring important benefits to the study, drafting and enforcement of law.
In effect, the application of this particular ICT-based FTA instrument to Law will enable the development of innovative models for researchers,
Furthermore, the combination of scenario planning with other FTA instruments and methods such as modelling analysis and simulation platforms, brings additional advantages to Law.
In effect, the systemic collaboration between different FTA METHODS, namely between quantitative and qualitative methods is becoming increasingly popular
and simulation platforms to parliamentary activities of lawmaking processes as another example of a FTA technique applied to Law.
Still within the field of lawmaking, modelling systems could be combined with other FTA METHODS, such as backcasting and future verification procedures.
The application of this set of FTA instruments would not only contribute to the process of evaluating the impact of specific laws in society,
In this context, the incorporation of FTA METHODS and tools to lawmaking activities accompanies the growing interest in Regulatory Impact assessment (RIA) by European policy makers.
FTA can thus contribute to the fulfilment of these two goals, providing the evidence and the empirical data required for this new generation of evidence-based legislative procedures and policy actions,
With the incorporation of FTA instruments, the revision of laws and the design of future ones would be complemented with better quality assessment procedures.
case studies and surveys as the most commonly used approaches (Blind, 2006), FTA would add to this methodological list other approaches that could render the evaluation of current laws,
FTA, in this respect, could also reinforce the development of ex ante impact assessments (the ones performed prior to the enactment of a new legislation,
and other FTA instruments based on ICT procedures. For the sake of clarity, it is important to note that I am not arguing in favour of lawmaking processes based exclusively
Important advantages derived from applying FTA to Law can also be found in the field of law enforcement,
and challenges of using FTA in law. Future research The introduction of FTA TOOLS and techniques to Law,
as this paper attempted to demonstrate, is extremely important and urgently necessary. Nevertheless, it is important to bear in mind that the application of fta to Law also carries a serious of problems and difficulties.
The following section summarises some of the most pressing challenges and problems that the interaction between FTA and Law may bring about,
In this particular, the question one encounters is how to measure the quality and the appropriateness of the legal research based on a specific FTA (determining, for instance,
Given the systemic unpredictability of the future 20, how can FTA-based or oriented laws and legal research be evaluated effectively?
in addition, a problem of FTA per se). The assessed quality of an FTA-based law or research is vital for the consolidation and continuity of this approach,
as otherwise the suggested application of fta to Law may run the risk of losing credibility in the eyes of policy and decision makers. 4. 2. 2 Neutrality and objectivity.
PAGE 346 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. 2. 3 The incorporation of FTA quantitative approaches to law.
Further research is needed therefore on better ways to incorporate quantitative FTA APPROACHES to legal activities, studying how for example modelling techniques can assist Law without threatening its independence as a fundamental human (and not machine driven) activity. 4. 2. 4 Distinction and legitimacy.
The combination of Law and FTA also raises the question (and challenge) of how to keep FTA and Law distinct and separated.
An eventual systematic application of fta to Law runs the risk of blurring the boundaries between Science and Law,
In the case of FTA-based laws would a given piece of legislation be legitimised
such as the ones of FTA, as complementary and supportive instruments of discussion and decision. FTA should help Law
and not transform itself into Law. In this respect, future work should be conducted regarding the boundaries between Science and Law,
Through this analysis, the paper underlines the roles that FTA can play in managing uncertainty
and examples of FTA TOOLS applied to Law, the paper also attempts to illustrate some of the benefits
and the limitations of applying FTA to Law. Bearing inmind that the Future is ultimately unpredictable,
It is of utmost importance to apply FTA to Law but we must be aware of the inherent limitations and challenges.
legislative drafting and law enforcement. 2. For a historical review of the development of Future-oriented technology analysis, see Johnston (2008).
For a clarification on the differences and similarities among the wide array of terms, methods and approaches that are included in the umbrella term of FTA, such as technology forecasting, technology assessment, roadmapping, technology foresight,
and prioritizing the future areas of regulation. 6. These were the cases of the future-oriented technology assessment exercises conducted during the period 1974-1995 by the US Office of Technology assessment (OTA).
A concrete example of a combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in FTA, namely between scenario and modelling analysis, can be found in the so-called International Futures (IFS.‘‘
For an overview of the main issues and challenges associated with the combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in the field of FTA,
overcoming the epistemic models of FTA that inherently assume a world that evolves as an extrapolation of the past,
furthermore, explores the basic ontological and epistemological concepts that underlie foresight and FTA. 21. Peter De Smedt
''in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin.
methodologies and selected applications'',paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Seville.
Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques:
Cagnin, C. and Keenan, M. 2008),‘Positioning future-oriented technology analysis'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analysis:
Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds)( 2008), Future-oriented technology analysis: Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin. de Smedt, P. 2010),‘The use of impact assessment tools to support sustainable policy objectives in Europe'',Ecology and Society, Vol. 15 No. 4
Haegeman, K.,Scapolo, F.,Ricci, A.,Marinelli, E. and Skolov, A. 2011),‘Premises and practices in combining quantitative and qualitative FTA METHODS'',paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference
on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville. Helbing, D. 2011), The Futurict knowledge accelerator to explore and manage our future, available at:
''paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville. Johnston, R. 2008),‘Historical review of the development of future-oriented technology analysis'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analysis:
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin. Kahn, H. and Wiener, A j. 1967), The Year 2000:
Loveridge, D. and Saritas, O. 2011),‘Combining quantitative and qualitative in FTA: rediscovery or something new?''
''a paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville. Miles, I. and Keenan, M. 2003),‘Two and a half cycles of foresight in the UK'',Technikfolgenabscha tzung Theorie und Praxis, Vol. 12, pp. 41-9. PAGE
Rader, M. and Porter, A l. 2008),‘Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study types'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R
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Saritas, O. 2011),‘Systemic foresight methodology'',paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville.
Staton, M. 2008),‘Monstrous foresight'',in Cagnin, C.,Keenan, M.,Johnston, R.,Scapolo, F. and Barre',R. Eds), Future-oriented technology analysis:
I. 2011),‘Foresight in an unpredictable world'',paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, Seville.
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