| Fta (1609) |  |
| Fta activity (72) | |
| Fta approach (37) | |
| Fta community (43) | |
| Fta exercises (14) | |
| Fta experts (4) | |
| Fta international seville seminar (6) | |
| Fta methodologies (5) | |
| Fta methods (59) | |
| Fta process (24) | |
| Fta tools (26) | |
| Impact of fta (28) | |
| Recent fta (3) | |
| Roles of fta (7) | |
To some extent convergence of opinion and broad measures of agreement were voiced that integrating FTA METHODS with established processes of strategic planning is difficult
A tentative systemic framework of the potential FTA METHODS by Saritas 10 is shown in Fig. 2;‘
Fig. 5. The relationships between risk assessment and FTA METHODS according to the time frame and approach. 1172 R. Koivisto et al./
They map FTA METHODS in terms of the ways in which they process information and deconstruct the scenario workshop process in detail to illustrate the organisational learning
and how the roles of various FTA METHODS and tools are seen in terms of knowledge management. It goes on to discuss the implications that follow for FTA design,
and so on are among the panoply of FTA METHODS. Indeed, each of the sets of tools just mentioned can be used in applications other than FTA in demographic forecasting,
We can even see some of the more ambitious FTA METHODS as themselves involving several or most of the knowledge conversion phases of the SECI spiral.
in order to illustrate the relevance of thekmapproach even in the context of individual/specific FTA METHODS. 6. Scenario workshops as knowledge processes Scenario workshops typically feature a sequence of activities.
and SF authors. 13 These are only two of many examples of lively debate being occasioned by efforts to bring FTA METHODS to bear on issues that have already been the subject of influential FTA studies.
Hence, it is important to reflect on how FTA METHODS and processes could support a move towards genuine governance and thus a more democratic society.
the latter poses a number of questions which need to be addressed such as how do FTA METHODS and processes address the complex issue of literacy asymmetries of different stakeholders?
How far would public and private leadership literacy as well as building citizens'capacity in FTA METHODS and processes lead to more participation in overall decision making?
Therefore it is critical to reflect on how FTA METHODS and process contribute to governance modes that are more responsive to risk society perceptions, values and apprehensions.
Above all, how do FTA METHODS and process contribute to such governance modes? The conditions for democratic governance of technology and innovation need to be acknowledged
At the same time, which FTA METHODS and processes could contribute to enlarge societal participation in development strategies (at local, regional, national and international levels?
to demonstrate the diversity of application fields in which FTA METHODS are being used and to offer a glimpse into possible consequences that grand challenges may imply for the development of FTA.
and limitations of implementing FTA METHODS in a variety of policy domains, but also their benefits in enabling a better understanding of complex systems that interact in each situation and in defining effective policy responses.
which FTA METHODS are being used. Moreover while some researchers combine established FTA METHODS, others bring in insights from new disciplines
or techniques that originated in other disciplines. Thereby, they provide important insights to an epistemological debate that is based on the premise that qualitative and quantitative methods are hardly reconcilable.
Germany. implementing FTA METHODS but also their benefits in enabling a better understanding of complex systems which interact in each situation and in defining effective policy responses.
A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS for transport planning Jens Schippl and Torsten Fleischer Abstract Purpose As in other socio-technical fields, future-oriented technology analysis (FTA METHODS are used in transport planning
In this paper, a transparent and problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS is suggested. It aims at supporting an appropriate usage of FTA METHODS in planning processes.
Design/methodology/approach A literature review carried out in context of the EU funded transport project OPTIC (see www. optic. toi. no) reveals that differentiating between different types of uncertainty is possible.
This sets the basis for the problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS. Key criteria for the categorisation of methods are their abilities in dealing with different types of missing knowledge.
It juxtaposes a problem typology and a typology of methods Keywords FTA METHODS, Transport planning, Risks, Uncertainties, Unintended effects, Uncertainty management,
Even if FTA METHODS are applied, it can be observed, however, that in many cases transport policy and its projected outcomes are considered highly controversial.
So, a broad range of rather different FTA METHODS is used in transport planning to improve the quality, robustness and legitimacy of decisions.
But this typology is assumed to be helpful for a categorisation of FTA METHODS. We argue that it is crucial to understand to what extent the different FTA TOOLS
All FTA METHODS focus on different aspects of the web of nodes. They either systematically cut out a certain area of the web
All gains and losses thought to be relevant are measured in the same units to enable Table II Categorisation of FTA METHODS Structurally open methods Structurally closed methods No fixed setting Predefined setting Mainly explorative More or less clear understanding of relevant
and Figure 1 Appropriate FTA METHODS for addressing different types of knowledge PAGE 288 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 help to turn such unknowns into knowns.
A positive example for a careful application and integration of results of different FTA METHODS is the development of the European commissions (Commission of the European communities, 2008)‘‘Action Plan for the deployment of Intelligent Transport Systems''(ITS.
Notable on this assessment is its deliberate use of various FTA METHODS. For example, different scenarios were developed; models were used for quantitative assessments.
This sets the basis for the problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS which was introduced above. In this paper, FTA METHODS were discussed in relation to the concepts‘‘structurally open''and‘‘structurally closed''.
''The key argument is closed that methods are rather usable in situations where the system under consideration can reliably be described
Such a problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS supports a better understanding of the potentials of different methods.
Scenario planning constitutes one of the most common FTA METHODS used in future studies 10, as it allows experts in foresight to define their own visions of the future,
and officer safety alike. 4. Discussion 4. 1 Advantages of using FTA in law The FTA METHODS
In effect, the systemic collaboration between different FTA METHODS, namely between quantitative and qualitative methods is becoming increasingly popular
Still within the field of lawmaking, modelling systems could be combined with other FTA METHODS, such as backcasting and future verification procedures.
In this context, the incorporation of FTA METHODS and tools to lawmaking activities accompanies the growing interest in Regulatory Impact assessment (RIA) by European policy makers.
Haegeman, K.,Scapolo, F.,Ricci, A.,Marinelli, E. and Skolov, A. 2011),‘Premises and practices in combining quantitative and qualitative FTA METHODS'',paper presented at the 4th International Seville Conference
Practical experience clearly shows that the potential participants of an FTA exercise are simply too busy to attend training courses just for the sake of being sophisticated familiar with FTA METHODS.
In sum, the relevance and appropriateness of FTA METHODS to tackle the perceived needs should have a much higher weight when designing an FTA project than the‘elegance'of methods.
Simply, it would be a gross mistake trying to establish a hierarchy of particular FTA METHODS/techniques based on their‘absolute advantages'(that is,
and practical work to establish what FTA METHODS would be useful and feasible to facilitate co-ordination of tools/actions used in various policy domains,
qualitative and participatory FTA METHODS. We define data as quantitative when consisting of numerical information and a methodology as quantitative when applying statistical/mathematical tools.
it was possible to identify where advancements are needed in terms of model developments. 4. Barriers to integrating FTA METHODS The above taxonomy
This section elaborates on these aspects by discussing some of the barriers that may hamper a deeper integration of quantitative and qualitative FTA METHODS. 4. 1. Barriers stemming from an epistemological divide in social sciences The main barrier to a full methodological integration is epistemological
Porter 40 suggested considering the use of multiple FTA METHODS tailored to the type of foresight study.
Such convergence has conducted to a rejuvenation and growth in FTA METHODS and practice, much in accordance with the perspective envisioned by Harold Linstone in 1999 2,
but very many of these are of the form‘Scenarios plus X'.Apart from combining recognised FTA METHODS,
Public policy 39 (2)( 2012) 153 165.15 K. Haegeman, F. Scapolo, A. Ricci, E. Marinelli, A. Sokolov, premises and practices in combining quantitative and qualitative FTA METHODS
Scapolo and Porter (2008) propose 13 families grouping more than 50 FTA METHODS, building on a typology proposed during the first FTA conference in Seville by the Technology Future Analysis methods Working group (see Table 1). Keenan
It combines several FTA METHODS. Technologies that are potentially effective in biosecurity and in combating EID were identified first by bibliometric analysis, online survey and scenario planning.
Amanatidou, Butter, Carabias, Ko nno la, Leis, Saritas, Schaper-Rinkel and van Rij argue that FTA METHODS can provide important enabling early warning signal detecctio
when a governmental organisation decides to use FTA METHODS, they experience it as a big step, often even a step of transformation of the organisational culture,
using FTA METHODS. One of the approaches is described in Klingner and Behlau (2008. Successful implementation of such processes achieves several goals:
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