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This phase is conducted through back-office work, discussions with the client and perhaps interviews with a limited number of other experts and stakeholders.
Often it is also necessary to further research the key scenario variables and their relationships through literature study and expert interviews.
three case studies based on the review of the regulatory frameworks and expert interviews were conducted 50. One of these case studies focused on the future regulatory framework for the use of smart cards. 509 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Table 2 Future
and interviews done in conjunction with the work discussed here, we can add that unless start-ups and SMES are part of networks
and a number of semistruccture interviews we constructed a map of the actual and possible technological
Building off MPM-1, we conducted interviews based on perspectives and projections of the field of lab-on-a-chip for single cell applications.
and issues that came from interviews and desk research (on socio-technical scenarios in general see Geels 64 and Elzen et al. 65,66).
From the interviews and the work already done on MPM-1 we identified the central bubble in Fig. 2 as the greatest challenge to overcome for cell-on-a-chip (and lab-on-a-chip more generally.
'The identification of such areas was the subject of the second part of 5 This conceptual framework will be validated via interviews with experts in relevant fields. 6 For an analysis of the major findings of the literature review,
and a series of interviews with foresight specialists to complete the development of the model describing the dynamics of foresight exercises in different contexts.
board minutes and stakeholder interviews, they identify the strength and weaknesses of the prevailing technical and organizational setup to address claims from customers, public, regulatory bodies and the affected environment 62.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176 interviews. Megatrends and weak signals are also the crucial targets of the examination:
models, workshops, brainstorms, interviews, literature reviews and other such methods are used in both approaches. However, risk assessments utilize more systematic and standardised methods, especiaall in risk identification phase.
expert workshops and interviews Development and future expectations of the approach New approaches like inherent safety and resilience engineering address the complex nature of industrial processes.
As there is not a single methodology for searching procedures, the methods contained quantitative methods like bibliometrics as well as qualitative approaches like workshops, expert interviews, internet and qualitative literature searches.
The (internet, literature and other) searches and first selection processes were complemented by expert interviews and informal talks to arrive at an impression of the importance and potential impact of the huge number of topics under consideration.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1187 1197 3. 2. Search phase of the process The second phase of the foresight process encompassed a further national and international search, interviews with Monitoring Panel participants,
The interviews with Monitoring Panel participants were half standardised: part of the questionnaire was the same for all panel members,
Expert discussions and interviews, also in the first wave of the Monitoring Panel interviews confirmed that the following thematic fields are of relevance for Germany:
The results from this survey, expert interviews and a set of criteria were supposed to be inputs to select interesting candidates for BMBF relating to the targets 1) and 2) of the process. 3. 3. The online survey Intentionally
For this, a last assessment by the international Monitoring Panel (second wave of partly standardised interviews) took place to validate the results.
Nevertheless, because of the workshops, interviews and survey, it was known in the research scene. It was very important to include BMBF from the start
Stirling 31 11 This was done through interviews and case analysis to find expectations of various actor groups and entanglements between groups and particular elements of RRI.
This was inspired by interviews at an annual meeting of the Frontiers Noe, where researchers were anticipating that the EU responsible development code may affect funding..
and Qualitative interviews with the actors involved. Interviewees were typically central council members, civil servants from relevant governmental entities, process and other external consultannts industry representatives and representatives of non-governmental organisations (NGOS;
Table 2. Rationales for strategy functions as reflected in the interviews with actors involved in the strategy process.
and a series of face-to-face interviews with stakeholders, including senior researchers within Luxembourg and abroad, as well as companies and public administrators.
The latter was combined with the findings of interviews to generate an initial‘long-list'of topics to be tested'by the research community.
Setting Context/Identifying Priorities Data collection Bibliometrics Interviews International research trends Evaluation of FNR programmes Mapping of Lux.
conduct interviews and carry out the online survey, but with so little time to work with, they decided to rely upon a single deliberative forum the Exploratory Workshop (EWS) near the end of the process to validate the domain rankings derived from analysis of the online survey. 12 This was always going to be problematic as it left too much to be achieved in a single one-day
participation as well as structured/non-structured conversations and interviews are equally important sources of data'(Thygesen 2009,56, n7).
as well as interviews with schoolteachers, politicians, municipal employees in the planning and social development department, visioning workshop participants and foresight practitioners.
The empirical study is based on 34 hours of in depth interviews and fieldwork observations in those various settings.
The vision project organiser later explained in an interview that there were several reasons why the politicians refused to discuss
Interview with vision project leader, April 2006. All interviews were conducted in confidentiality, and the names of interviewees are withheld by mutual agreement. 16.
Interview with vision project leader April 2006.17. Interview with vision project leader, June 2006.18. In this respect, foresight practises
and guidance literature interact with research areas of science and technology studies (STS), especially regarding insights about the relationships between‘given facts and future values'.
'As Brown (2005,331) writes:‘‘in a wide range of contexts, present day evidences, proofs, facts or truths are giving way to future-oriented abstractions premised on desire,
Johnston and Cagnin review the main findings from a series of interviews about the status of FTA as an activity with nine personalities attending the FTA conference.
Policy recommendations were validated thought interviews of about twenty experts in ICT or environmental policy The 8th Japanese technology foresight program Informative Understanding future S&t challenges.
Typical methods employed here are literature reviews, interviews with experts, horizon scanning. Roughly Horton's subtasks (i),(ii) and (iii.
R &d activities and strategy work Regional and national strategies and priority setting International agreements/strategies/priority setting Expert interviews Delphi surveys, questionnaires Interactive workshops focusing on SWOT
''1 1 1. Evaluating FTA in the light of recent events This paper is based on a series of interviews with nine leading researchers.
The setting for the interviews was the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference organised by the EU Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technology studies (IPTS) in Seville in October 2008.
Available online 19 november 2010 A b s T R A c T This paper is based on a series of interviews with nine leading researchers conducted during the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville
Analysis of these interviews paints a picture of FTA as an increasingly important approach being adopted in many countries to address the many challenges which are emerging at this time in human history.
§This paper is based on interviews with nine leading FTA researchers conducted during the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville on October 16 17,2008.
A full list of the interviewees is provided in Annex 1. A video of the interviews can be accessed at http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/videos. html.*Corresponding author at:
''These themes were reflected in the expert interviews. Based on experience of formal evaluation of foresight programs, it was claimed that‘‘lack of success had very little to do with the quality of the work that has been done and much more to do with initial and subsequent political positioning''.
and in all components of public and private decision-making. 4. Conclusions The interviews conducted as a component of the Future-oriented technology analysis International Conference held in Seville on 16 17 october 2008 provide a clear insight into the current state of the FTA
and in supporting the linkage between the analysis of the interviews with the overall results of the 2008 FTA Conference.
USA. 4 These interviews were funded in part by the JRC-IPTS of the European commission. R. Johnston, C. Cagnin/Futures 43 (2011) 313 316 315 Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca UNIDO, Austria.
Such a method could have been interviews with experts or stakeholders from different fields not only form the transport sector.
In a study on inaccuracies in travel forecasts in the USA, Parthasarati and Levinson (2010) conducted interviews with experts.
Nearly 20 personal interviews were made with planning practitioners and public officials in Spain. Interviewees were questioned systematically about their attitude toward future studies
Experts were engaged via personal interviews and focus groups. 3. The determination of functional implications as a means to strengthen scenario design was tested for the first time as part of a foresight exercise undertaken in Burgos city (Asociacio'n Plan Estrate'gico de Burgos,
interviews or many laboratory experimeents the primary concern is with the perception or abstract representation of reality by individuals exposed to the situation.
Interviews are used so often to obtain opinion that the procedure is regarded as mundane, but it is not.
in it, the interviewees were asked to respond to a set of questions in his/her topic field the responses to whichwould enable a probability distribution to be constructed representing their opinion regarding the topic of the interview.
Interviews were structured semi and lasted from 1 h to half a day. Data analysis was highly iterative and used traditional approaches for inductive research (Eisenhardt 1989;
the first phase was thematic interviews and the second phasewas roadmapping. The roadmapping phasewas completed in twoworkshops.
The face-tofaac interview with him provided input to allow a first evaluation of our analyses.
tuned through expert interviews. The presentattio aims to locate elements that would add value to the solar cell innovation chain (the y-axis)
Confidential bilateral interviews The viewpoints, concerns and agendas of individual organizational units are captured subsequently in step 2 through separate confidential bilateral talks with each unit.
Furthermore, these interviews generate leads and recommendations for other relevant stakeholders that could be brought into the dialogue at subsequent stages.
During the interviews stakeholders need to be assured of our neutral role as facilitators of the process.
and questioned in semi-structured interviews. These typically last about one to one and a half hours and cover the outside view of the expert on the subject to be examined including an assessment of current challenges and success factors.
and the number of participants in step 6 and step 7 it can be helpful to conduct individual interviews in preparation of an event.
Furthermore, prior interviews allow the facilitator to set the right focus in the workshop, anticipate relevant topics, sensitivities, and group dynamics.
The upfront interview results are consolidated usually and presented in structured form at the beginning of the workshop to kick-start discussions.
Semi-structured interviews were conducted in advance to explain the objectives and the process to the experts as well as to collect initial input to describe the starting point
3). Key issues were crystallized in a dialogue process with the BMBF (step 4) combined with consolidated results from semi-structured interviews with 40 experts
‘‘roundtable discussions''and interviews. Twelve roundtable discussions were facilitated with senior representation from a cross-section of policy areas, mainly from government ministries and agencies (approximately 90 participants in total.
and interviews were conducted with heads of project teams. 3. Russian FS approaches 3. 1 National S&t Foresight:
''The methodology of this study included various expert and analytical techniques being engaged to prepare this S&t foresight (analytical research, bilbliometric and patent analysis, interviews with and polling of experts,
interviews, workshops), and analytical research. All in all, 50 in depth interviews, two expert surveys and over 20 workshops were held to prepare this national foresight.
More than 300 experts from the S&t and business communities, as well as government officials, took part in the exercise.
Based on interviews with social scientists he identifies eight barriers to integration of qualitative and quantitative data and methods,
and print media 2. stepwise clustering of the findings into visions in interaction with innovation actors through interviews and an online survey 3. development and assessment of scenarios of future innovation landscapes 4. generation of policy implications.
The resulting visions were discussed with innovation experts with different perspectives on innovation patterns through interviews and an online survey.
The online survey was set up to support the qualitative interviews. Accordingly, participation was limited to a restricted circle of people with special expertise in relevant aspects of innovation or candidates for an interview.
In total 56 experts participated in the survey. The majority of the participants were researchers, consultants,
but also due to the focussed and clear description and the perceived novelty of at least some of the visions (Figs. 5 and 6). The expert interviews were carried out by different researchers from the project consortium.
Therefore, it was essential to use a structured outline for the interviews to ensure comparability.
and answered the online survey in advance to the interview. By adding qualitative information to the results of the survey,
Both interviews and survey were referring directly to the weak signals without introducing any assumptions on the socioeconomic context or causalities among the respective developments.
Accordingly, a structured assessment of very different aspects of changing innovation patterns was possible within interviews of 30 min up to 3 h. Considering that the participation in the online survey was restricted to a specific circle of people
and used as a base for both the interviews and the online survey. By using visual rather than textual information it was aimed to mobilise tacit knowledge
not only explicitly in the interviews but also in the written feedback included in the survey. Furthermore the high number of people watching the trailer in the internet can be interpreted as an appreciation of the visualisation.
During the interviews, the project team analysed whether the individual perception of the visions by each of the experts corresponded to the comprehensive descriptions of the visions previously developed by the project team.
The interviews revealed that for some visions the visual information was interpreted in a slightly different way by the diverse experts.
a wide range of opinions and observations is recruited often through interviews or surveys. In the INFU project thiswas done by a literature reviewand screening forweak signals by the project team as described above.
From all reactions collected on the 19 visions through the survey and the interviews the project team identified eight critical issues that seemed to have special potential for changing today's innovation patterns.
These so-called nodes of change in innovation 24 were subjected then to in depth discussionwithin the INFU mini panels (Table 1). The co-ordinators were identified in the course of the interviews as people with particularly relevant ideas and high
Denmark Visioning session among CIVISTIA consortium in Copenhagen 2. Automatising innovation Patrick Corsi Consultant, Belgium Four interviews with key companies (IBM, EPFL, INSEAT, ISTIA
Finally, policy implications arising from the changing nature of innovation were discussed with policy makers from various realms and levels in interviews and within one dedicated policy workshop.
Some experts noted in the interviews that the assessment of coverage could have been emphasised even more in the INFU project.
In particular the fact that the external expertswere identified only throughout the progress of the project depending on the interview results proved extremely useful as the project was able to respond to the insights in a very flexible manner.
such as Expert Panels, Interviews, Modelling and Literature reviews. The uncertainty avoidance dimension has several implications for national management and planning cultures.
in depth interviews, and questionnaire research involving users in the local and national policy domain. 2014 Elsevier Ltd.
and whether there was sufficient willingness to cooperate with the study and access to civil servants for interviews and other data sources.
The empirical evidence for this paper is based on three indeept interviews with policy-makers who were involved closely in the development of the scenarios, the analysis of the scenario studies,
In depth interviews were conducted with the four members of the municipality management team and with five civil servants who were involved in the scenario analysis.
We used an independent evaluation that was conducted in 2010 by the University of Twente 21, based on interviews with 21 politicians and civil servants and a document analysis. Furthermore,
At the local level, a document analysis was combined with interviews with policymakers. The document analysis focused on documents regarding the scenarios and related strategic policy documents.
The insights from this analysis were juxtaposed with the insights from the interviews. Because we were aware of the potential bias of in depth interviews (for example
a retrospective attitude may suggest a process more linear than it actually was focused), we especially on the consistencies between the document analyses and the in depth interviews.
In the interviews, we used open questions, to gain a broader understanding of the issues mentioned in the research questions.
We compared the findings of the case studies in the local public domain with two studies on the use of foresight at a national level (see 23,24),
The two studies that examined the national level mainly involved semi-structured interviews with civil servants involved in strategic matters and with the users and commissioners of foresight studies.
'Thirteen interviews were conducted with strategists and policy-makers. The interviews consisted of two parts:(1) an analysis of what foresight means to the interviewees
and (2) an analysis of the way policy and strategy processes take place. Although all thirteen ministries were involved,
the interviews were not representative of the Ministry in question in all cases. However, since the aim was to explore how foresight
'In each Department (thirteen in total), one interview was conducted to obtain a broad view of how Dutch ministries deal with foresight and organisational development.
which levers and barriers were encountered by policy-makers involved in the in depth interviews. 3. 5. 1. Knowledge
The approach proposed combined wide participation through online surveys and a wiki platform in combination with interviews and workshops with selected industry experts,
During the initial discussions many project partners argued that the best way to engage with their informal network of contacts would be through methods other than those initially proposed, such as interviews and smaller workshops.
online surveys and video/teleconferences combined with structured interviews and face-to-face meetings. The meetings conducted during crucial phases such as the scenario formulation and the definition of a common vision for the roadmapping work.
The results from the above initiatives were complemented with the outcomes from two brainstorming workshops and 106 interviews with industry representatives.
Moreover, the first online questionnaire and interviews with key industry actors took into account those research topics already mapped
2. Linking the findings of previous projects and research with the results of the mapping, the interviews and the first online survey.
and interviews with industry representatives. It can be summarised into three main statements 26:1. Rapid and adaptive user-centred manufacturing,
State-of-the-art and expectations Analysis of co-patents and co-publications Use common foresight framework User of partner contacts and established networks for outreach (survey, interviews,
the results of online surveys, workshop discussions, interviews and partner meetings were used as input. As a result a number of research topics that would have been difficult to capture
including roadmapping group Formal Interviews, mutual learning workshops, online surveys, wiki platform, website, dissemination activities Personal contacts and Internet Informal Online surveys, wiki platform, website
The combination of open and collective (online surveys, wiki) with closed and expert-driven stages (interviews
This desk research was combined with an expert consultation round (N=10) and a limited number of user interviews.
and external trends could be identified. 4. 1. 2. Process model With regard to the process model different views emerged during the interviews.
The possible use of the horizon scan data at the European commission (EC) level was discussed in interviews with representattive of different directorates within the EC.
Further development of the joint horizon scan On the basis of the experience of the pilot joint horizzo scan and discussions within the established netwoor of interested organisations and interviews with representatives of different directorates of the EC, a proposal
The sector analysis was carried out by the project team through literatuur review and expert interviews. The first findings were submitted then for assessment by a large numbbe of experts via a broad participatory tool, the Delphi survey.
The interview results indicate that success is defined ultimately as the impact of the foresight exercise on government policy,
A common theme emerged in the interviews. Althooug there can be a wide range of benefits associatte with the foresight process,
Methodology The primary study methodology was interviews with the directors of successful foresight programs to learn from them what factors led to success and, of course,
The interviews were designed also to elicit the institutions'perception of what constitutes foresight success. Organizations
The results of the interviews were examined by an expert group who in turn selected commonly recurring comments made by the foresight directors that appeaare to be critical success factors.
and/or email interchanges and interviews trying to find out their reasons for success: how have evolved they,
The interviews were designed also to elicit the institution's perception as to what constitutes foresight success. Foresight organizations
Phase 2 of the first study focused the interviews on deriving a deeper understanding of the models
Despite the divergence of objectives, a common theme emerged in the interviews. All interviewees mentioned the importance of the results of foresight being used to inform
there were many consistent comments in the interviews that provides the beginnings of a model on
, conservation and final use Interviews with experts Delphi: 63 technological topics were examined by experts, using Delphi technique and considering four dimensions of analysis:
interviews were conduccte with different stakeholders at national level, including 30 government, industry and academy Figure 4. FINEP SMP timeline:
The interviews were structured semi and applied in person. The views of these players were importaan elements in broadening the vision for the future of FINEP.
Corporate values identified in interviews with the agency's employees were validated also and its mission revised.
wild cards, SWOT analysis, roadmapping, web survey and interviews, expert panel, conference and workshops, multi-criteria and stakeholder analysis, indicator developmeent benchmarking,
Audiovisual and other sources were audio and video recordings of interviews, but also video documentaries, reports and databases.
Emerging issues are formulated usually on the basis of searches in different sources and expert interviews. These searches and interviews lead to a selection of more or less full descriptions of potential emerging issues (future narratives)
and also a body of additional signals that are considered to be indicative of the start or development of their emergence.
and reassessed, taking account of the results of the expert interviews, so that ultimately 12 future topics were formulated (Klingner and Behlau 2008).
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