Introduction New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis The 2004 EU US seminarb Fabiana Scapolo European commission Directorate General Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
organised by the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of European commission's Directorate General Joint research Centre.
research groups, technological field, and society. The second contribution by Fleischer et al. argues that TA of emerging
and that as a consequence of participating in the process they were revising their own business and R&d strategy.
And it is enhanced by coherent actions of a range of key decisionmakker in research policy, economy and society.
if too harsh requirements to build on well established scientific results are imposed on foresight At the stage of impressionist knowledge,
e g. no innovation-oriented research programme can be sustained successfully for a longer period without skilful management.
For instance, they can refer to the promotion of individual technologies (e g. an R&d programme) as well as to the structural settings of the innovation systems (e g. liberalisation of energy supply.
You can do a research project usingmany of the ideas from AF, but the full benefits can only be realised in a consultancy project working closely with a client.
current trends, the state of play and perspectives S&t intelligence for policy-making processes, Research report, IPTS/ESTO, Sevilla, 2001.5 R. Barré, Synthesis of technology foresight, in:
Current Trends, the State of Play and Perspectives, Research report, IPTS/ESTO, Sevilla, 2002.6 M. Keenan, D. Abbott, F. Scapolo, M. Zappacosta, Mapping foresight
the EUROFORE pilot project, Final Report, ESTO/IPTS, Sevilla, 2003.7 B. R. Martin, J. Irvine, Research Foresight:
Research and Energy in Swedish Politics, Akademilitteratur, Stockholm, 1984.28 K. M. Weber, Foresight and portfolio analysis as complementary elements in anticipatory policy-making, in:
, D. Banister, K. Dreborg, E. A. Eriksson, D. Stead, K. M. Weber, Impact of ICT on transport (ICTRANS), Research report, IPTS/ESTO, Sevilla
Building the Nordic Research and Innovation Area in Hydrogen, Summary Report of Nordic H2 Energy Foresight project, Risoe National Laboratory, Risoe, 2005.481 E. A. Eriksson, K
I. Oehme, H. Rohracher, P. Späth, Transition zu nachhaltigen Produktionssystemen (Transition to sustainable production systems), Research report, ARC systems research, Vienna, 2005.40 B
Innovation Vienna Strategy for Research, Technology and Innovation, Vienna, 2007.43 K. M. Weber, A. Geyer, D. Schartinger, P. Wagner, Zukunft der Mobilität in Österreich.
Konsequenzen für die Technologiepolitik, Research report, Austrian Research centres, Seibersdorf, 2002.44 C. Freeman Technology policy and Economic Performance:
IST success scenario and policy priorities, FISTERA Research report, PREST, Manchester, 2005.50 R. J. Lempert, S w. Popper, S. C. Bankes, Shaping The next
Econ. 5 (1977) 147 176.52 B. Schauer, R&d portfolio selection considering risk and project interrelations, Phd thesis, University of Technology Vienna, Vienna, 2007.
Dr. E. Anders Eriksson received his Phd In operations Research from KTH in Stockholm in 1986.
Dr. K. Matthiasweber is head of Technology policy Department at Austrian Research centres systems research. Over the past years, he has been contributing to and leading several foresight exercises at European, national, regional and sectoral level,
Apart from foresight methodologies, his main research interests are in the governance of research and innovation systems, in the transformation of large socio-technical systems towards sustainability
and in the emergence and performance of R&d collaboration networks. 482 E. A. Eriksson, K. M. Weber/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 462 482
Experiences from the preparation of an international research program Ville Brummer a, 1, Totti Könnölä b, 2, Ahti Salo a a Systems analysis Laboratory, Helsinki University of Technology, P o box
1100, FIN-02015 TKK, Finland b Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Joint research Centre-European commission, Edificio Expo, C/Inca Garcilaso, s n
Specifically, we report experiences froma recent consultation process that was organized withinwoodwisdom-Net (ERA NET) with the aim of creating an international research agenda, based on the recognition of long-term challenges of the European forest sector and the attendant identification of gaps and new
Methodologically, the processwas based on the Internet-based solicitation and assessment of research issues, the deployment ofrobust Portfoliomodeling (RPM) in the identification of promising research issues,
In addition, extensive network analyses were conducted to support the identification of possible collaboration networks and the development of joint calls for proposals.
however, may foster high expectations concerning shared visionbuilldin and formation of new research and technology development (RTD) networks.
and cooperation among national and regional research programs organized by ministries and national funding agencies in the member states.
The funding organizations have different priorities for research themes and resource allocation; they also operate subject to different regulatory and institutional constraints that limit
These and yet other complexities are amplified by the many administrative options that can be pursued in the implementation of shared research agendas, ranging from the relatively weak coordination of national 3 http://cordis. europa. eu/coordination/era net
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 programs to the institutionalization of a new legal entity for allocating a common pot of resources through competitive calls for proposals.
and iii) priority setting for formulating promising research themes and corresponding resource allocations. Here, tentative interests in prospective collaboration can be probed by inviting stakeholders from different countries to explore what research themes should be pursued through international joint RTD activities
in view of expected S&t developments, industrial needs and societal demands. The resulting information helps funding organizations in the formulation of their own research agendas,
clarifies linkages between national and European agendas, and prepares the broader RTD community for later calls for proposals and other actions.
At best, embedded foresight can overcome some of the administrative barriers in the preparation of international programs;
networking and priority setting in the development of a shared research agenda for an international research program. 3. Shaping of research agendas in Woodwisdom-Net Woodwisdom-Net4 was started in 2004 as one of the ERA NETS supported by European union.
Its goal is to deepen the collaboration between the European funding organizations in the field of wood material science in order to coordinate the use of research funds,
v) identification of research areas and instruments that are needed to improve competitiveness and sustainability of the forest cluster,
and vi) implementation of transnational research program to improve competitiveness and sustainability of the forest cluster.
United kingdom) eventually have decided to launch a cofunnde research program in the field of wood material science.
Provisionally, the calls for proposals of this program will be prepared in 2007. Research activities are due to start in 2008.
The activities in Woodwisdom-Net are carried out in five work packages (WP. Within the WP for strategic activities, the tasks for the shaping of research agendas are concerned with the identification of research areas that are relevant for European cooperation.
Because these agendas are crucial to the overall success of Woodwisdom-Net, the WP Coordinator felt that a systematic participatory bottom up consultation process would be helpful.
Drawing upon experiences from earlier collaboration with the Systems analysis Laboratory at Helsinki University of Technology in the development of a Scandinavian co-funded Wood Material Science Research program 16, the project plan for the Woodwisdom
The engagement of RTD stakeholders from all the countries was a prerequisite for identifying research issues that reflected relevant scientific and technological developments, on one hand,
The plans to establish an international research program meant that the funding organizations had to define focal research themes for European RTD collaboration.
consisting of four research areas and 23 sub-areas. 6 Stakeholder participation, too, was based on the definition of explicit roles and responsibilities for the different phases of the process.
as well as by the treatment of research areas and research themes as relevant‘units of analysis'that experts could be assessed with the Internet-based decision support tool.
in order to i) identify similarities and interdependences between proposed research issues, and to ii) generate more holistic perspectives on the emerging agenda.
thus on several occasions to the Steering Group of 6 These research areas and sub-areas are listed on page http://www. woodwisdom. tkk. fi/task1. htm. 487 V. Brummer et al./
as well as the research team at TKK (Helsinki University of Technology) which was responsible for most activities in the design and implementation of the process (i e.,
Researchers consisted of leading researchers at universities, research institutes or industrial research organizations on wood material science and related sciences.
They submitted research issues and assessed these issues in view of their perceived novelty. They were asked also to indicate how interested they would be in participating in a possible research project on any given research issue,
if such a project were to be launched at a later time. Industrial leaders consisted of R&d and business managers in the forestry-related industry.
They assessed the proposed research issueswith regard to their industrial relevance and suitability forww-Net. Furthermore
and synthesize results to support the work of funding organizations in the formulation of calls for proposals. 3. 2. 2. Phases of the consultation process The process design relied on earlier experiences form cyclic foresight processes 3, 17.
These issues were assessed by Researchers and Industrial Table 1 Phases of the Woodwisdom-Net consultation process Task Participants Schedule 1. Solicitation of research issues Researchers Mid-july Mid-october‘05
2. Assessment of research issues Researchers December‘05 Mid-january‘06 3. Assessment of research issues Industrial leaders Three last weeks of January‘06 4. Initial
screening of research issues Project team January February‘06 5. Three one-day workshops for Researchers and Industrial leaders 10 12 Researchers and Industrial leaders
To some extent, network-building was supported also by listing the registered participants on the website of the consultation process. 7 3. 2. 2. 1. Solicitation of research issues.
In the first phase, National Coordinators invited Researchers in their respective countries to submit research issues through the Internet questionnaire. 8 These questionnaires were implemented by using Opinions-Online decision support tool9
For the purpose of information management, Researchers were asked to indicate which research area and sub-area the issue would fit best within a taxonomical framework that was developed for the research issues.
This framework was helpful in that it helped the participants identify the issues that they were interested most In for each issue,
and to describe why the issue would merit collaborative European research funding. Finally, they were asked to indicate
whether the issue was characterized as basic or applied research. The questionnaire was open from Mid-june 2005 until Mid-october 2005.
In total, well over 200 Researchers from the participating countries submitted research issues. 3. 2. 2. 2. Assessment of research issues from the research perspective.
In the second phase, National Coordinators invited Researchers to assess the research issues that had been submitted in the first phase.
Researchers that were interested in working on a particular research theme were asked also to identify themselves and, moreover, to describe how they would like to contribute to a possible project later on. 3. 2. 2. 3. Assessment of research issues from the industrial perspective.
In the third phase, National Coordinators invited Industrial leaders to assess the submitted research issues. Industrial leaders were asked first to choose which sub-areas they were interested in,
whereafter they could assess the issues they deemed interesting. The questionnaire was open in January 2006.
The purpose of the first criterion was to measure how relevant the research issue would to industrial uses,
which the issue was seen to call for RTD cooperation at the European level. 3. 2. 2. 4. Initial screening of research issues.
After the research issues were submitted and assessed the Project Team analyzed issues based on the assessment data.
In the context of Woodwisdom-Net, it was employed by regarding research issues as tentative ideas for possible projects that might be promoted in the international program.
The value of entire portfolios of research issues is additive, too, because the value of a portfolio is obtained by summing the values of its constituent issues.
there were no estimations on how costly potential research projects on the issue might; thus, there were no a priori grounds for assuming that some issue would call for more funding than another.
consequently, the RPM analysis was carried out by identifying alternative portfolios of 7 research issues that could be regarded as attractive in view of incomplete preference information about the relative importance of the assessment criteria.
This rank-ordering which emphasized that there would have to be a strong rationale for pursuing research issues through international collaboration implied linear constraints on the criterion weights i e.
which research issues and sub-areas would be particularly suitable for the international research Fig. 1. Core index values for research issues in sub-area 1. 3 (Creating new functionalities
In each country, thenational Coordinators identified one representative from wood-material-based industry and one member of the research community and invited these to the workshops.
This structure differed somewhat from the framework that was employed in the structuring of research areas and sub-areas.
so that they could become familiar with the proposed research issues, experts assessments and corresponding CI values. A separate set of background materials was prepared for each workshop
whereby all research areas and sub-areas that were relevant to the workshop were covered. Within each sub-area
iii) to suggest other research topics that were not among the proposed issues (approx. 2. 5 h). After these discussions,
and to list the five most interesting research issues per sub-area. The participants were asked also to make a tentative recommendation on how they would distribute funds (in terms of percentages) among the sub-areas
based on the quality of solicited research issues and the workshop discussions (approx. 1 h). Towards the end of the workshop, the results from these questionnaires were compiled separately for each country
to form working groups of funding organizations who would collaborate towards the development of calls for proposals covering those research sub-areas that they were interested in funding.
Also, research issues that had been regarded as particularly interesting in the preceding workshops were listed explicitly. Separate analyses were presented at the aggregate level (i e.,
Amajor goal of this workshop was proceed to towards the development of calls for proposals. The agenda of the workshops consisted of three parts.
the participating funding organization were asked to give a preliminary estimate about how much funding they might be willing to allocate to the sub-area in the forthcoming research program.
if this funding would be allocated to basic or applied research (approx. 1 h). Finally, based on the indications of these tentative funding interests,
we have discussed the use of decision support methodologies in the development of a shared research agenda inwoodwisdom-Net, an ERA NET on wood material research that is an example of the coordination tools for EU innovation policies.
In effect, the bottom up consultation process in Woodwisdom-Net where the participating researchers and industrialists interacted with a large shared pool of research issues can be contrasted with less transparent processes of international RTD priority setting where the preliminary priorities
this, in turn, is likely to foster active participation in later research programs and mitigates the risk of ending up with a weak response to calls for proposals, for example.
Another benefit is that the funding organizations can define the priorities based on a realistic understanding of what issues researchers are keen on pursuing
and how these issues are regarded by the end-users of research results (e g.,, industrial firms. Taken together, these features of structured consultation contribute to a closer alignment between the priorities (as conveyed by calls for proposals) and the interests and competencies of the RTD community.
A particularly valuable aspect of bottom up consultation processes is that the solicitation and assessment of research issues,
together with an analysis of how interested the researchers are in working on these issues, may assist in the formation of new collaborative networks.
For each research issue, such an analysis conveys which research groups are keen on participating in corresponding project consortia,
for instance by encouraging the research groups to respond to calls for proposals in a full awareness of what other groups in other countries have shared interests.
sub-area of research) can be synthesized meaningfully and taken forward to another level of analysis. A challenge in using the Internet as a platform for structured deliberative consultation processes is that such processes are new to many participants.
Policy 1 (1)( 2004) 4 32.16 A. Salo, J. Liesiö, A case study in participatory priority-setting for a Scandinavian research program, Int. J. Info.
2005) is Researcher and doctoral student at the Systems analysis Laboratory of Helsinki University of Technology, with research interests in foresight, decision support systems and strategic decision making.
Previously, he has been Senior researcher at the VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Researcher at the Systems analysis Laboratory in the Helsinki University of Technology and Expert in Gaia Group Oy
Ahti Salo (M. Sc. 1987, D. Tech. 1992) is Professor at the Systems analysis Laboratory with research interests in decision analysis, decision support systems, technology foresight, and risk management.
10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.004 public activities in research and development, regulatory impact assessment is a policy evaluation mechanism
but also national research agencies and businesses, in their efforts to cope with the increasing complexity of new technologies and decision environments, in an increased techno-economic competition worldwide 9. Since the 1990s,
prospect the potential impacts of current research, technology and regulatory policy, focus selectively on economic, technological, social and ecological areas as well as to start monitoring and detailed research in these fields.
Consequently, foresight activities can and have been also be applied to regulation, in order to identify both promising areas for different types of regulation and their possible impacts.
but the main purpose is the reshaping of existing public research and development programmes or launching completely new programmes.
which reflects 1 This focus is caused also by the fact that we rely on results of the project NO-REST(=Networking Organisations Research into Standards and Standardisation),
The overview of methodologies in Section 2 starts with a list of possible methodologies which are also relevant for assessing the impact of public R&d policies.
Here, legal frameworks as an object of assessment are part among the set of other policy instruments, like R&d funding,
Benchmarking Financing R&d Provision of R&d infrastructure Technology transfer and innovation diffusion Legal frameworks (IPRS, standards and regulation) Integrated projects Networks of excellence Methodology:
The former indicator reflects better the activities in basic research whereas the latter covers the performance in applied research and development.
One rather new indicator 21 are released technical standards by formal standardisation bodies. Since standardisation is a kind of industry self regulation,
Since research activities only being performed in basic research are less likely to create challenges for the regulatory framework in the near or mid-term future
Some studies based on OECD data and other internationally comparable data investigated the influence of the regulatory framework on R&d activities 27 or product innovation 28.
These studies do not consider that the outcome of R&d and innovation activities may challenge the existing regulatory framework and Fig. 2. Science and technology indicators (Source:
which is accepted now widely by the research community. A systematic and strategic approach to develop standards for the service sector was initiated in Germany in the year 2000 with a large project Service Standards for Global Markets funded by the German Ministry for Education and Research 34.
However, in other countries, like the United kingdom, France and The netherlands 31, the national SDOS set up similar agendas.
Blind and Gauch 39 conducted a survey among the stakeholders of nanotechnology research and standardisation in Germany.
The division of the sample into companies and research organisations reveals that companies are already much more involved in the elaboration of quality and compatibility standards than research organisations.
and measurement and testing standards are especially relevant for the organisations focusing on basic research, whereas quality,
but particularly compatibility standards are central for applied research and experimental development. 506 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Summarising the results of the survey and relating them to the conceptual framework,
already published in 2001, with regard to their expected time of realisation, their importance, the effectiveness of policy measures, like R&d support,
which includes R&d funding and improving the framework conditions for R&d, regulation (i e. reinforcing or establishing regulations);
deregulation (relaxing or abolishing related regulations), and standardisation within formal standards development organisations for the implementation of these visions.
NO-REST ITU Survey Fraunhofer ISI 2005)( 1=low importance to 5=high importance) Year Importance R&d Regulation Deregulation Standardisation Widespread use
the assessment of R&d support and standardisation as a more diffusion oriented policy instrument correlate very high,
whereas the statistical connection between R&d support and regulation is rather vague. 3. 3. 4. General assessment In general,
and technology foresights focusing both on active researchers and stakeholders responsible for shaping and performing R&d programmes.
and technology working both in research institutes and private companies, is an option to improve the reliability and the validity of survey results.
However, this dimension is compared underemphasised to the objective to identify future priorities for public R&d funding
in which Germany did not leverage its excellent position in research and development into a leading position in setting the necessary framework conditions for future research and market introduction via standardisation 39.
-Baden, 2001.7 G. Tassey, Methods for Assessing the Economic impacts of Government R&d, National Institute of Standards & Technology, Gaithersburg, MD, 2003.8 K. Blind, B. Bührlen, C
Joint research Centre,(eds. 2002). ) 20 H. F. Moed, W. Glänzel, U. Schmoch (Eds. Handbook of Quantitative Science and Technology research, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht (The netherlands), 2004.21 K. Blind, The Economics of Standards Theory, Evidence, Policy, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham
, 2004.22 U. Schmoch, F. Laville, P. Patel, R. Frietsch, Linking Technology areas to Industrial Sectors, Final Report to the European commission, DG Research, Karlsruhe, 2003.23 K. Blind,
Research policy, vol. 31 (7), 2002, pp. 1141 1161.27 K. Koch, M. Rafiquzzaman, S. Rao, The Impact of Regulatory policies on Innovation:
in The netherlands, Proceeding of the First Interdisciplinary Workshop on Standardization Research, Universität der Bundeswehr, Hamburg, 1997, pp. 311 333.33 H. J. De vries, Standardization:
in the interface between nanotechnology research and standardisation in Germany: explanations and solutions, EURAS Proceedings 2006, Wissenschaftsverlag Mainz, Aachen, 2006, pp. 61 70.40 T. J. Gordon, O. Helmer, Report on a Long-range Forecasting
then research and development (R&d) efforts necessary to realize various goals are backcast. But for new and Emerging s&t this trusted principle does not work:
The work is linked to a programme of Future oriented technology assessment (FTA ACTIVITIES coordinated within a European nanotechnology research network.
Among the central aims of the Frontiers Network-of-Excellence (Noe) programme1 are a. the coordination of research activities in the research institutes that comprise the Noe (alignment;
Noes have to combine‘vertical'or bottom-up management of a portfolio of research projects with‘horizontal'stimulation of science-to-industry innovation chains.
Our paper centres on one Frontiers FTA project on the stimulation 1 The EC 6th Framework programme Network of Excellence Frontiers is a network of 14 European research institutes
portfolio creation) reflections on what road to take for actors such as research groups, or start-ups), or which roads to support (for programme managers).
A map of paths can be embedded as a central element in a support system to articulate the most robust8 strategy for research groups, start-ups and programme committees (strategic/strategy support system, SSS.
In addition over the 15 years of research and development into lab-on-a-chip devices, larger industry has been reluctant to invest in stimulating
Research and development of the components of lab-on-a-chip continue, however innovations in terms of products are few and far between.
page 12). 12 Path creation and path dependence studies are merged also in the Free University of Berlin doctoral programme on organisational paths of the semiconductor consortia 42.13 Research becomes doable
and stimulate a proliferation of research projects towards the vision of TAS. In the mid 1990s other scientific communities (synthetic chemists;
T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 This can be translated into a prospective innovation chain diagram (see Fig. 2) where we see scientific and technological research on the left-hand side of the diagram,
Of particular interest is the proliferation of research and development of nanotechnologies for cell analysis the laboratory, the proliferation of expectation of applications for such cell-on-a-chip devices,
research areas are based around the perceived functions for cell handling and analysis conducted today in a macro-scale laboratory:(
and (6) Analysis. Relevant research for instrumentation and approaches for each of these stages is positioned in the proof of principle section (phase 1) of the innovation chain shown in Figs. 1 and 2. Such areas of research have proliferated over the last 10 years 53,54.
Each of these six functions houses scientific research and technology development. We want to point out that within the six functions attributed to a cell-focused laboratory on a chip,
) The second path comes from a research project at the University of Hull (UK), where government support has been granted to refine existing technologies
T. Propp/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 517 538 Such an MPM-1 can be useful for developing a portfolio of research projects
creation and ongoing analysis of a portfolio of relevant research. Innovation chains are specific and there is a lot at stake for those who attempt at creating
For the purpose of aiding development to strategic research area setting within Frontiers, this map (and any future evolution) is
Section 4 described and explored a use of MPM as support for the articulation and ongoing assessment of Strategic research Areas based on dynamics of the field as a whole.
in order to direct research and seek out possible actors who could co-construct an innovation chain based on the Strategic research Areas of Frontiers. 2. Broadening the perspectives of the practitioners participating in the exercise to test the robustness of MPM as part of a strategy support system
In-house R&d of a multinational corporation (MNC) Technology development conducted by SMES but stimulated by an MNC Start-ups finding opportunities and becoming the integrator Separate integrators
and design houses Research device is picked up by someone Groups of heterogeneous actors coming together in a cluster The four options shown in italic where chosen to be discussed in more detail;
which build on their own ties with the research community and attempt to develop the technology. Intellectual property (IP) is shared with the MNC.
as well as a funnel for innovations coming from university research. Thus such a heterogeneous cluster would centre around university research and fabrication facilities18,
where start-up companies (and perhaps larger companies) would form the constituents of the heterogeneous cluster.
In the University of Hull case, we see a research group becomes the systems integrator and builds its network around them with a view to transition to a company after proof of concept. 6. Discussion
the general R&d, innovattio management and management literatures; futures studies; organization studies; the S&t policy literature; and bibliometrics, scientometrics, and patent analysis.
The strategy support systems will be developed further for different technology fields being investigated within the framework of the Frontiers research programme.
MPM can be of use at the level of research group leaders, portfolio managers, and start-up companies.
and R&d intelligence is separate from strategic management intelligence embodied in specialized technology consultancies but both cooperate in the context of alignment exercises.
significance, satisfaction and suggestions for further research perspectives from Germany, Austria and Switzerland, Strateg. Change 14 (2005) 1 13.16 R. Phaal, C. J. P. Farrukh, D. R. Probert, Technology roadmapping A planning framework for evolution and revolution, Technol.
TUTS Working paper 2005.43 J. H. Fujimura, Constructing‘Doable'Problems in Cancer Research: Articulating Alignment, Soc.
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