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and is a useful service for companies to monitor the complex business environment and provide information to allow adaptation of strategies.
and that as a consequence of participating in the process they were revising their own business and R&d strategy.
Based on this realisation, any approach to policy or business strategy based on the idea of early identification of winners must be subject to serious doubts.
, business actors to involve themselves with an emerging technology, which is in turn often a precondition for it to mature through learning-by-doing
Industrial leaders consisted of R&d and business managers in the forestry-related industry. They assessed the proposed research issueswith regard to their industrial relevance and suitability forww-Net.
He has published in journals such as Journal of Business strategy and the Environment; Journal of Cleaner Production;
but also in the field business regarding e-commerce-related issues. 4 In summary, Delphi exercises focusing on the future of science and technology take the general regulatory framework into account as one kind of obstacle,
and business developments taken from the Seventh Japanese Technology foresight Report 48, already published in 2001, with regard to their expected time of realisation, their importance, the effectiveness of policy measures, like R&d support,
a business approach to the role of national standardization organizations, Kluwer Academic Publ. Boston, 1999.34 DIN:
and business strategies. 3 Ubiquitous as it may be, the advantages (and disadvantages) of roadmapping depend on the context in
when the technological, regulatory and business context of the (hopefully) growiin start-up/SME has matured, the company can switch towards roadmapping for incremental innovation.
In this case path is like a business model, a plan to connect the present to the future.
a French MEMS business development consultancy. 20 There are attempts in The netherlands for innovation chain 3 building off micro
For a company or specific project leader, the path analysis is with respect to developments in research, the business environment, possible users, as well as regulation.
an academic perspective, Technovation 17 (8)( 1997) 417 426.6 H. J. Duus, Strategic business market forecasting, Strateg.
Change 8 may 1999) 173 182.7 P. Groenveld, Roadmapping integrates business and technology, Res. Technol. Manag. 40 (5 september October 1997) 48 55.8 D. E. Hussey, Glossary of techniques for strategic analysis, Strateg.
Mccarthy, Linking technological change to business needs, Res. Technol. Manag. 46 (2 march April 2003) 47 52.15 K. Matzler, M. Rier, H. H. Hinterhuber, B. Renzl, C. Stadler, Methods and concepts
how the opportunity landscape interacts with business strategy to anticipate technological trends, Technovation 22 (2002) 91 100.21 D. R. Myers, C. W. Sumpter, S. T. Walsh, B. A. Kirchhoff
Relatively speaking, this sector has received less attention than the business and higher education sectors. One barrier to understanding is the wide range of structures existing in Europe,
The emergence of new players and new business models for universities is likely to add‘more colours'to this picture.
She holds a Phd from the Helsinki Swedish School of economics and Business administration. Her Lic. Tech. and M. Sc. degrees are from Helsinki University of Technology.
high costs, high uncertainty, technological inexperience, business inexperience, lengthy time to market, and the general destruction of firm competence 17,29, 30.
risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES. The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes;
development of proactive risk assessment methodologies for different corporate risk management purposes (identiffyin the vulnerability of corporate and process actions, managing the risks in occupational, industrial and environmental safety, managing business risks, etc.),
and how it may change the business or the environment around us. A paradigm shift and interesting methodological developments are seen for Technology assessment too:
and management of future uncertainties and risks in companies that are giving rise to new business 29.
as well as the drivers and bottlenecks of the ongoing business in a defined time perspective 29.
The ultimate benefit of this relatively light and fast roadmapping exercise is that the process forces one to think about all the important aspects of the new business creation.
Active involvement of the decision makers in the analysis allowed them to have a broad and realistic image about opportunities and risks related to the new (potential) business.
in order to evaluate their business potential after 5 10 years in a medium-size company. One opportunity was selected for more thorough concept development including iterative steps of idea generation and enrichment,
concept elaboration and business potential analysis. The criteria used forced to take into account various kinds of uncertainties
In addition, business, policy making and the whole broad spectrum of decision making call for future-oriented technology analysis as well as risk assessment. Foresight methods and activities approve the uncertainty linked to the different futures
in business and in the society in general is crucial for both FTA and risk assessment. There is, therefore, a common ground shared by both approaches.
Innorisk-project, www. vtt. fi/innorisk, Managing Opportunities, Risk and Uncertainties in New Business Creation Working Report, VTT Technical research Centre of Finland, Tampere
She graduated in Helsinki University of Technology and holds a Phd from Helsinki Swedish School of economics and Business administration
Her educational background is in business management. Her research relates to future-oriented technology assessment and innovation studies. Her special interest lies in enhancing innovations provoked by societal concerns for wellbeing of the aging society and for cleaner environment.
industrial and business barometers in its attempt to grasp future developments. The purpose of a technology barometer is to give data of how favorable and competitive the Finnish innovation environment is assessed to be now and in the future.
i e. the members of the Finnish association of graduate engineers TEK, young people studying at the senior secondary school level, political decision-makers and business decision-makers.
young people studying at the senior secondary school level, political decision-makers, and business decision-makers. The member group of TEK consists of the organisation's elected union representatives, the council members of the board of trustees,
the changing role of knowledge-intensive work, innovations and business, and education structures. The first extensive societal issue relates to the role of knowledge-intensive work in Finnish society
The second themeof discussion ismore comprehensive and concerns the future development of innovation and business activities.
in basic technologies and business thinking alike, so as to generate product concepts with increasing initiative and courage.
Moreover the scope of innovation in policy-making will be extended from technological innovation merely towards business innovations and behavioural, organizational and different social innovations.
Index (Economic Freedom Network) Economic Sentiment Indicator (EC) Internal Market Index (EC) Business Climate Indicator (EC) Environment Environmental sustainability Index (World
Kerstin Cuhls is coordinator of the business area Foresight and Futures research in the Competence Center Innovation and Technology management and Foresight at the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research in Karlsruhe, Germany.
Her background is Japanese Studies, Chinese Studies and Business administration. Amina Beyer-Kutzner is responsible for the BMBF Foresight in the Federal Ministry for Research and Education
because no viable options existed that would enable the business to address the threats the scenarios conveyed 32.
and practice focuses on business applications. A number of studies thus examine potential differences between scenario exercises in the public and private sectors.
and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning, Futures 37 (8)( 2005) 795 812.10 R. J. Lempert, S w. Popper, S. C
what are and what are not desirable future situations°Prioritising the choices that have to be made among the outcomes of Foresight Avoid the assumption that people have infinite plasticity toward new technology Increase trust between policy makers, business and the general public,
many leaders in business, the professions and government; competent, self-reliant and efficient, but tend to be materialistic,
Business as usual approaches are not capable of addressing these challenges. Smart decision making linked to the ability to innovate calls for the anticipation and exploration of future directions through a societal debate within policy making,
and business decision making a much stronger orientation and capability to address the future in a more systematic way.
but the Ministte for Economic and Business affairs through the Energy Authority had overall political responsibility
REFU) is an advisory board for the Energy Authority and the Ministry of Economic and Business affairs.
and business opportunities and of broader societal needs and improved the discussion on science possibilities to contribute to these.
Harvard Business Review, no. 33 (May June: pp. 79 91. Reger, G. 2001. Technology foresight in companies:
business and research were invited to the Stakeholderworkshop with the aim of identifying the main challenges facing Luxembourg over the coming decade.
National priorities National priorities (Research areas)( Research domains) Innovation in services Business service design and innovation Fostering the economic and legal environment for Innovation performance and development of the financial systems
and from (high-tech) business contributed to the process. The discussion was intended to develop a comprehensive strategy
which experts panels focused their work (see Figure 1):(1) RTI in business;(2) Research priorities and knowledge transfer;(
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 959 Panel 1 FTI in business Integrative concept for RTI-strategy Panel
academia and business and Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 960 K. M. Weber et al. several hundred participants.
3) In revising the City of Vienna business promotion principles‘ZIT 08plus'more attention will be given to crosscutting issues of RTI policies,
He studied economics and social sciences and holds a Phd fromvienna University of Economics and Business.
developing organizational foresight in the knowledge economy',11 13 july 2002, University of Strathclyde Graduate school of Business, Glasgow, UK.
Paper presented at 3rd Strathclyde international conference on organisational foresight, 16 18 august 2007, University of Strathclyde Graduate school of Business, Glasgow, UK.
Other databases cover policy, popular press, and business activities. These can be exploited to help understand contextual factors affecting particular technological innovations.
Today, major organizations are standardizing certain strategic technology and business decision processes. Stagegaat approaches set forth explicit decisions to be sequenced toward particular ends (e g.,
, business) databases. As such it represents one advanced form of technology monitoring. This information can serve other FTA needs to various degrees:!
Systematize strategic business decision processes.!Mandate explicit technology information products be provided for decision stages in such processes.!
life control and social innovations 2. Services and service innovations Business competence in services Culture and adventure services Renewal of public services 3. Well-being and health Physical exercise and nutrition research Mental health
Global economy Assessment and management of global risks Impacts of business globalisation on national economies Management of innovation processes panel reports. 5 The first part of the synthesis report summarised selected driving forces
Technology and Innovation7 in fields that are important to the future of Finnish society and business and industry.
but crossed this with an interest in the evaluation of impacts and in the use of FTA in two domains, business and higher education 9, 10.
and technology that defines today's business environment. For more than 25 years, scanning has played an essential role in SRIC-BI's
and disruptive forces in the business environment. The scanning process is the foundation of the open intelligence services that the Scan program provides to its clients.
or even catastrophic effects in business systems but that are difficult if not impossible to predict.
writing in strategy+business 1, refers to these new types and levels of risk as interdependent risks.
As the complexity of the business environment increases, successful businesses will be those that turn themselves into adaptive systems that work in an organic manner to find,
and systematically apply the pattern-recognition capabilities of up to 30 professionals to the task of identifying important potential changes in the business environment.
The coming together of experts from a variety of technical and scientific domains as well as from a variety of business-process arenas (including research, marketing, management,
and systematically marshal the pattern-recognition capabilities of a group of professionals to identify important changes in the business environment
Organizations that implement systematic and ongoing processes such as open intelligence systems to tap the external business environment continually for signals of change increase their odds of adapting successfully.
but inevitable twists and turns of their business push them to make...critical decisions in real time.
Q David Snowden, director of IBM's Cynefin Centre for Organisational Complexity in Cardiff, Wales, advocates a form of what he calls bimmunizationq against the shocks of a constantly changing business environment.
Our description of the scanning process begins with the collection of data points from the business, cultural,
Business processes! Science! Technology. The breadth of scope inherent in the diversity of the categories represents one of the most important strengths of the scanning process.
and areas of expertise will miss important signs from the broader business, cultural, and technological environments.
and that designers frequently have much to say about what that environment looks like 8. Many abstracts deal with innovative business processes
and chaos theory in scientific as well as business applications turn up in abstract sets on a regular basis. Biotechnology and nanotechnology topics are continuing players in the abstract sets.
and planners identify the defining forces that are operating in the business environment. When abstracts on particular topics (such as wireless technologies or privacy concerns) constitute clusters that cross industry-domain categories (such as health
SRIC-BI's staff includes experts with backgrounds in anthropology, business, economics, international affairs, communication arts, marketing, information technology, life sciences,
The likelihood of strategic plans'being blindsided by external developments increases every year with the increasing complexity and competition in the business environment.
Strategy & Business 34 (2003 Spring) 71.2 Stephen Haeckel, Adaptive Enterprise: Creating and Leading Sense
Mckinsey Quarterly 2 (2002) 48 57.7 Mark Buchanan, Power laws and the new science of complexity management, Strategy & Business 34 (2003 Spring) 76.
K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1092 8 Jessie Scanlon, Big business:
and use foresight to develop policy (or business strategy). The third group is associated almost always with the verb‘‘to foster
These multidisciplinary and cross-business function programs are aimed at technology leaps in strategic areas. Projects are not the focus of detailed selection effort the primary issue is one of addressing broad technology goals
nor are targeted they directly on specific business units in the corporate structure. They also play the principal role in the creation and management of portfolios of research projects.
L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 247 success for business at least is defined very clearly in market terms,
society and technology which may impact upon the business and its innovative activities. Rollwagen et al. describe this process in Deutsche bank which they summarise as‘‘Foresight explores
and assesses business opportunities as well as upcoming strategic, organisational and business environment related issues''28. Other corporate activities are engaged more directly with the specifics of innovation:
Becker reports that a small group of firms (Daimlerchrysler, Philips and Decathlon) use foresight in a catalytic role to stimulate
and a disconnection between the development and application of new technologies and the societal and business issues which are wanted by the public and their political representatives.
At the level of the firm there are problems of short-term and reactive thinking caused by a preoccupation with immediate business problems
and to manage the interfaces with business and other stakeholders represents a further barrier which may be rooted in institutional structures and limited human resource capabilities among other reasons 33.
, S. Schneider, Improving the business impact of foresight, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (3)( 2008) 339.29 P. Becker, Corporate Foresight in Europe:
10.1016/j. futures. 2010.11.004 sector agenda setting, it is also ever more common practice in business, nongovernmental and international organisations.
future-oriented elaboration of factors affecting the Nordic business and development environment in ICT. Fixed Structured discussion and the generation of new ideas in the workshops Autonomous Creative brainstorming and ideation in the different scenario and roadmapping workshops.
and a survey was launched to opinion-formers leaders in business, government, media, NGOS and academia.
business actors and researchers from all EU Member States responded to the on-line Delphi study. In addition, more than 600 stakeholders in a various EU Member States were addressed in a series of national seminars.
but also by development of new services and new ways of doing business and of interacting with citizens 16.
and by commissioning a survey that is consulting leaders in governments, business NGOS and the academic sector.
and use of FTA in the public sector there has been substantial growth in foresight and FTA in business.
and others 5 7. The nuclear threat was seed the for the current call for new forms of governance to cope with the regulation of S&t that is now embedded in the combined phenomena of globalisation and glocalisation of business, with effects on every aspect of modern
although with less formal attempts to assess the social accounting cum auditing of business activity. New fora for involving the public in the governance of S&t came in many forms from the 1970s onwards,
-Increase trust between policy makers, business and the general public, and consequently, reducing the number of occasions
CSR brings wider societal concerns and values, such as human rights, ethics and corruption, into business strategy and decision making.
and its stakeholders when integrated with business strategy and operations 26. Hence, a core issue to CSR is partnership development. 2()TD$FIG Fig. 1. The new governance landscape.
communities and other stakeholders to do business offering a concrete way for a business to identify social issues that matter to its stakeholders
The underlying rationale often risks confusing public relations with social and business results. All four schools of thought share the same weakness 29:
they focus on the tension between business and society rather than on their interdependence. Each creates a generic rationale that is not tied to the strategy and operations of any specific company or the places in
prioritise and address the social issues that matter most or the ones on which it can make the biggest impact. 5. 1. Research on corporate social responsibility The business case for CSR can be divided into theoretical and empirical categories 30
and managers approach the business case for CSR in practice. Empirical studies suggest that the relationship between financial performance
and (ii) there are even fewer studies that have concentrated explicitly on the business case for CSR as a driver of corporate sustainability management 30.5.2.
The business case for sustainability The business case for sustainability is sector-specific. It is difficult for companies to build reasons for CSR with its apparent limited relevance to social and environmental risks and opportunities to a firms'core business.
CSR's numerous and highly fragmented stakeholder demands and lack of basic organisational capacities to collect
Nevertheless, companiesmust ensure theirown economic survival in a competitive and volatile business environment while dealing with social and environmental issues 31.
One of the assumptions behind CSR is that business outcomes and social objectives can be aligned more or less,
Tools and standards to support business sustainability The GRI Sustainability Reporting Guidelines have created performance indicators (both quantitative and qualitative),
and the UN Global Compact Initiative (UNGCI) in the GRI G3 guidelines. 3 The UNGCI, launched by the United nations in 2000 in partnership with business,
It is a means to make contribution towards more responsible and sustainable business behaviour. Its selling point is that SRI funds allow investors to invest according to more ethical values
and standards for responsible business conduct in a variety of areas including employment and industrial relations;
if they work together making CSR hard to distinguish from day-to-day business of the firm 29.
The more a social issue tied to the firm's business the greater the opportunity to leverage the company's resources and capabilities,
The assumption that CSR can be defined as business decision linked to ethical values 37 presupposes that stakeholders
thus social and economic goals into alignment and improving a firm's long-term business prospect. 6 Responsive CSR comprises two elements 29:
or anticipating adverse effects from business activities. C. Cagnin et al.//Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 286 beyond addressing global inequalities and cultural and religious divides.
flows. 3. New business models for the design, production, distribution, retail and management of products and services. 4. Responses to the challenge of sustainability and changes in demography, in consumer behaviours and in social values,
In business this is summarised as the triple bottom line or the creation of shared value through reconciling economic
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 287 business and society if consistently invested in social initiatives
Integrating business and social needs takes more than good intentions and strong leadership: it requires adjustments in organisation, reporting relationships, and incentives.
Few companies have engaged operating management in processes that identify and prioritise social issues, based on their salience to business operations and their importance to the company's competitive context 29.
Associated Business Programs, 1976.6 H. Kahn, Thinking About the Unthinkable, Weidenfeld and Nicholson, 1962.7 H. Kahn, A. Weiner, The Year 2000:
Fourth Report on Economic and Social Cohesion, European communities, 2007.20 C. H. Cagnin, An information architecture to enable business sustainability.
Business Ethics: Readings and Cases in Corporate Morality, 4th ed.,Mcgraw-hill, New york, 1970.26 BSR, Corporate Social Responsibility, Business for Social Responsibility, 2003 http://www. bsr
. org/BSRSERVICES/CSR. cfm#ZURICH. 27 C. Shelton, Quantum leaps, Butterworth-Heinemann, 1997.28 NNSR, Novo Nordisk Sustainability Report, 2002 http://www
the link between competitive advantage and corporate social responsibility, Harvard Business Review (2006. 30 O. Salzmann, A. Ionescu-Somers, U. Steger, The business case for corporate sustainability:
literature review and research options, European Management Journal 23 (1)( 2005) 27 36.31 U. Steger, A. Ionescu-Somers, O. Salzmann, The economic foundations of corporate
a typology and analysis, Business and Society 36 (4)( 1997) 419 429.33 K. Davis, Can business afford to ignore social responsibilities?
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 290 35 M. E. Porter, M. R. Kramer, The competitive advantage of corporate philanthropy, Harvard Business Review (2002.
creating value, Harvard Business Review (1999. 37 S. A. Aaronson, J. Reeves, The European response to public demands for global corporate responsibility, National policy Association, USA (2002.
Now it has links with big business and has achieved a degree of respectability in some circles and even in the marketplace).
policies and business focus over periods of several years that usually have global reach. What is interesting about trends is that normally most players,
and create or drive change within one's business or institutional environment. These tend to be more immediate and relevant and distinct to different types of stakeholders
innovations and business-institutional strategies 6. A critical concept associated with being a driver is the level of uncertainty.
in order to increase the ability of social groups to adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business or social environments.
Such sudden and unique incidents might constitute turning points in the evolution of a certain business social trend or system.
and provides an opportunity for small entrepreneurs to enter the telephone business with relatively little investment.
and similar innovations create powerful forces that change the business and social environments and personal information practices;
but not confirmed changes that may later become more significant indicators of critical forces for development, threats, business and technical innovation.
or government respondents see the prospective developments in longer or shorter time horizons than the business respondents?
Increased surveillance smart security, disruptive surveillance technology big business Energy 42 Peak oil Growth of renewable energy:
whereas the majority of the respondents from business envisaged shorter time horizon for the emergence of trends (between 2008 and 2015.
whereas the figure is exactly the opposite for the Business respondents, who expect low level of controversy. 3. 2. 3. Drivers of change The main orientations of the drivers are represented with the following radar diagram.
More balanced distribution was observed among Business respondents and Students. Impact assessment. Similar to the patterns observed regarding trends
On the contrary, the respondents from Government, Business, and other Table 3 Examples of drivers. Examples of critical drivers by category A b c Society & Culture 46 Increased citizen participation with the help of collaborative Web tools International mobility of educated workforce improves cultural
the time of occurrence for wild cards indicates parallelism between the respondents from Academia, Business and Other affiliations,
and material world via molecular and selfassemmblin entities Secularism in science overvalues in religion End of Moore's law Business
%A high and balanced participation in discontinuity assessment was observed among the Governmental and Business respondents. Impact assessment.
NGOS and Students were identical, where about 52%of the respondents suggested medium level of likelihood. 50%of the respondents from Government and Business stated high likelihood of occurrence.
This time Academia and Business suggested that most of the discontinuities would emerge from 2016 to 2025
The majority of the Business respondents have a longer term time horizon (beyond 2025) compared to the respondents from Academia
Recent crises and the threat of major longer-term changes are fostering a view that business as usual approaches are not capable of addressing these challenges.
and the taxi driver may go out of business (selection). Therefore agents need to optimise their actions-to move
Drivers who don't make enough profit go out of business Taxies that are damaged reduce drivers'profits Die
The Essential Guide to Complexity theory in Business and Management, Spiro Press, London. Bell, W. 2003), Foundations of Futures studies:
Rami'rez, R. and Van der Heijden, K. Eds)( 2008), Business Planning for Turbulent Times: New methods for Applying Scenarios, Earthscan, London.
These included researchers, officials and representatives of various business areas, as well as many NGOS. The project team from FFRC consisted of five researchers, with experience both in methodologies applied in the exercise and in climate and energy issues.
and try to break the trend of business-as usual. Backcasting scenarios are usually relatively long-term (20-100 years)( Robinson, 1990, p. 820),
NGOS, energy business and researchers of various fields, as well as representatives from various business areas. The results of the first questionnaire were sent in advance to those who had confirmed their participation to the workshop.
For the workshop, people were divided into groups of eight to ten persons, and each group had the same task to solve.
4. Technology is the key (business-as usual scenario, solutions relying on decentralised energy production and increased use of nuclear power).
and diminishing personal transport needs Self-sufficiency, relying on homegrown renewable materials Business as usual, relying on heavy industry Economic growth Stable growth Stable growth Slow growth Stable growth Basis of economic structure (industry) Energy scarce service sector,
Bottlenecks hindering the growth of new business opportunities for low-emission technology and applications should be analysed and removed.
and Business administration from the Turku School of economics and is currently preparing his Phd in Economic Sociology at the University of Turku.
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